PROBABILITY

In Bio-Sci 107- GENETICS

Submitted by:
CESAR N. NEVADO

Submitted to:
PROF. IV ROMEO R. LEROM
 CHAPTER I.
INTRODUCTION

Background of the study

Probability is the proper mechanism for accounting for uncertainty. Axiomatic
probability theory is gloriously complicated, and we don’t attempt to derive the ideas in detail.
Instead, this chapter will first review the basic ideas of probability. We then describe techniques
for building probabilistic models and for extracting information from a probabilistic model, all in
the context of quite simple examples. In chapters? 2, And? We show some substantial examples
of probabilistic methods; there are other examples scattered about the text by topic. Discussions
of probability are often bogged down with waffle about what probability means, a topic that has
attracted a spectacular quantity of text. Instead, we will discuss probability as a modelling
technique with certain formal, abstract properties — this means we can dodge the question of
what the ideas mean and concentrate on the far more interesting question of what they can do for
us.
Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical description of how likely
an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true.

IMPORTANCE OF PROBABLITY
The concept of probability as it is misunderstood.it is a vital to have understanding of the
nature of chance and variation of life, in order to be a well-informed, or efficient citizen. One
area in which this extremely importance is in understanding risk and relative risk.

OBJECTIVES

The relation between probability and statistic

Understanding probability and importance statistics
 CHAPTER II
REVIEW RELATED LITERATURE
: 7. Modelling the Payoffs Up: 6. Is this Bum Previous: Probability versus Statistics
Jai-Alai Players and Baseball Players
How much of an influence does player skill have on the outcome of a jai-alai match? Obviously
this depends upon how great the skill difference between the players is. I am quite confident that
the worst professional player, with his leg in a cast, would crush me 1001 times if we played a
series of 1000 games against each other. The real question is whether the relatively minor
differences in player skills on the professional level translate in a significant difference in the
likelihood that the better player wins.

It is a simple matter to program our computer to tabulate the number of wins that each player had
over the past year, but is the most successful player really most skilful? What is the right length
of time to analyse such statistics over to measure the best current player? It needs to be a long
enough time for the totals to be statistically significant; for such random events as off-days and
lucky bounces to cancel themselves out. And yet it cannot be too long a time interval, for certain
player's skills will improve with training and experience while others erode with injury and
aging.

There is certainly anecdotal evidence that certain jai-alai players are better than other players.
Joey, perhaps the greatest American jai-alai player ever, led the Dania fronton in wins an
amazing eight consecutive seasons from 1985 to 1989. (There are two seasons per year.) A look
at the top ten players at any fronton will have many names in common with the list from the
previous year.

Most Americans have a finely developed statistical sense about baseball. Let's use that sense to
gain better intuition about the impact of player skills in jai-alai. Baseball batting averages are
well known as meaningful statistics; indeed a .300 hitter is the classical definition of a star
player. Achieving a .300 average means that you managed to get 3 hits every 10 times at bat. Any
player's batting average fluctuates over the season as they have good and bad games. So how
successful is a player's current batting average at predicting how they will do in the future?
Von Mises’ limiting relative frequency probability
von Mises’ (1957) relative frequency definition of probability is based on two central
constructs, namely, that of collective, and randomness. He limits probability to apply
only to infinite sequences of uniform events or processes that differ by certain observable
attributes, of which he labels “the collective.” The definition of probability is concerned
only with the probability of encountering a certain attribute in a given collective. Two
hypotheses about collectives are essential in von Mises’ definition of probability. The
first is the existence of the limiting value of the relative frequency of the observed
attribute. In other words, a collective appropriate for the application of the theory of
probability must be “a mass phenomenon or a repetitive event, or simply, a long sequence
of observations for which there are sufficient reasons to believe that the relative
frequency of the observed attribute would tend to a fixed limit if the observations were
indefinitely continued” (ibid, p. 15). The second hypothesis is a condition of randomness,
called “the principle of the impossibility of a gambling system,” in other words, “the
impossibility of devising a method of selecting the elements so as to produce a
fundamental change in the relative frequencies” (ibid, p. 24). von Mises requires that a
collective (to which the theory of probability applies) also fulfils the conditions that the
limiting value of the relative frequency of the attribute remains the same in all partial
sequences which may be selected from the original one in an arbitrary way.
The strength of von Mises’ limiting relative frequency theory of probability is that
it offers both a physical interpretation of, and a way of measuring, probability (as
opposed to mathematical probability, which I will discuss in the following section). It
offers an operational definition of probability based on the observable concept of
13
frequency. This should be considered in concert with von Mises’ background as a
physicist and his close philosophical tie with Ernst Mach’ Positivist tradition. Because of
his main scientific interest in physics, von Mises is more concerned with the link between
probability theory and natural phenomena (as opposed to, for example, a mathematician’s
interest in formalizing probability theory). His philosophical conviction, Positivism,
holds that physical laws are merely summaries of sensory experience and the meaning of
physical concepts is determined only by specifying how they are related to experience. It
is in this sense that von Mises regards probability as “a scientific theory of the same kind
as any other branch of the exact natural science,” which applies to long sequences of
repeating occurrences or of mass phenomena (Von Mises 1951 p. 7).
Objections to von Mises’ theory pinpoint its lack of connection between theory
and observation by the use of limits in infinite sequences. It is well known that two
sequences can agree at the first n places for any finite n however large and yet converge
to quite different limits. Suppose a coin is tossed 1,000 times and the observed frequency
of heads is approximately 1/2. This is “quite compatible with the limit being quite
different from 1/2” (Gillies 2000 p. 101). To be more precise, the observation does not
exclude the possibility that the probability (the limit of the relative frequency) is, say,
0.5007. Fine’s (1973) position is in harmony with Gillies’. He suggested that “knowing
the value of the limit without knowing how it is approached does not assist us in arriving
at inferences,” and radically concluded that a limit interpretation is “of value neither for
the measurement of probability nor for the application of probability.”
 CHAPTER III
METHODOLOGY
Research Instrument
Internet
Coin
Procedure for Data Collection
The researcher gathering the data by using a coins and form a funnet square.
Respondents
The respondent from the BSA 2nd year section A.
 CHAPTER IV
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The researcher provide the evidences to prove or to show the results and discuss it about
the probability..
In probability genetics it have a two rules multiplication and addition, will have a
dependent events and independent event in possible result. For example a toss coin that an
example of independent events that what is the probability of the head and tail so the probability
is half because if it is a flip they will have a 2 chances the back also at the back. It depends on
how many attempts that are show. If the result have a 10 attempts and the head are 5/10 and the
tail also 5/10 the possible outcomes are 50-50% because of the result are the same. In the rule of
the rule of probability how we can apply it, the multiplication and addition the dependent event;
for the addition rule it will be a 1 event that can occur more than 2 types or 2 different ways, and
the multiplication rule are 2 events or occurring at the same to give one particular sight.
Work Problem solving
Question:
In one Couple have a 3 doughters and now the question is, what is the probability of getting 2
daughter + 1 son? We know the possible chances of their children is ½ so to become a daughter
the probability is ½ and son are 1/2 . But the question is 2 will become a daughter and 1 will
become a son so the possible arrangement of the children the are:

It can be Daughter + Daughter + Son

It can be Daughter + Son + Daughter
Or it can be Son + Daughter + Daughter
In every single spot is haft that we know. In the first place for the Daughter is ½ and for the
second place Daughter is ½ and for the third place is ½
Daughter + Daughter + Son = ½ , ½, ½
Daughter + Son + Daughter
Son + Daughter + Daughter
So in this problem I said that the addition are only 1 outcomes but they are 3 separate events so
we should use the multiplication that have a 2 or more events but the same outcomes
Daughter + Daughter + Son = ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/8
Daughter + Son + Daughter = ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/8
Son + Daughter + Daughter = ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/8
Therefore after using of multiplication, lets proceed to the addition 1 event but 2 different ways
now we use it. 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8 that will be the total probability of the couple that will be
getting of 2 daughter and 1 son.
Another examples:
So we can used the product rule of predict frequencies of fertilization events. For instance
consider a cross between two heterozygous (Aa) individuals so the question is what are the odds
of getting an (aa) individual in the next generation?.

The only way to get an (aa) individual is the mother (a) gamete and the father side contributes (a)
gamete. Each parent has a ½ chances to making a gamete (a), thus the chances of getting (aa)
offspring. So the (probability of mother contributing a) x (Probability of father contributing a) =
(1/2) . (1/2) = 1/4 . we know that the equivalent of chance both parents are 1/2. To produce the
gamete (aa).
 THE PRODUCT RULE OF PROBABILITY
Let us use the sum rule to predict fraction of the offspring from Aa x Aa cross that will have
dominant phenotype (Aa or Aa genotype in this cross there are three events that can lead to a
dominant phenotype:

A a

A AA Aa

a Aa aa

Fig. 1.1 Mono Hybrid

Two a gametes meet (giving AA genotype), or

A gametes from Mom meets A gamete from Dad (giving Aa genotype), or
A gamete from Mom meets A gamete from meet from Dad (giving Aa genotype)

In any one fertilization event only one of these three possibilities can occur, they are mutually
exclusive.
½ Chances are getting from a Father.
½ chances are getting from a Mother.
(½) x (½) = ¼
This figure 1.1 show that the same result that you had get with a punnet square, and the logical
process as well. The difference in the punnet square we’ do the calculation visually: We had
represent the ½ probability of an a gamete from each parent as one out of the two columns (for
the father) and one out of the two rows (for the mother). And the 1 square intersect of the column
and row (out of the 4 total squares of the table) represents the ¼ chance of getting of an a from
both parents.
 A a

A AA Aa

a Aa aa

THE SUM RULE OF PROBABILITY

Since the example of the product rule are ¼ we should use It to their. So the probability of
offspring with a dominant phenotype is:
(Probability of A allele from Mom and A allele from Dad )+ (Probability of A from Mom
and a from Dad) + (Probability of a from Mom and A from Dad
Are equal to ¼ + ¼ + ¼ = 3/4.
Fig 1.2 Mono Hybrid
In figure 1.2 shows that Ones again this is the same result that we used in the punnet square one
of the four boxes of the punnet square holds the dominant homozygous AA. Two more boxes
represent heterozygous one with a maternal A and Paternal a, the combination each box is 1 out
of the 4 boxes in the whole punnet square, and since the boxes do not overlap ( they are mutually
exclusive), we can add them up ¼ + ¼ + ¼ = ¾. To get the dominant phenotype.
 CHAPTER V
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

CONCLUSION
There for, the probability helps people to understand which choices are safe and which
choices are risky. Or course, this task is much easier when we have fluent knowledge of
probability.

RECOMMENDATION
The researcher will recommend to understanding and studies about this topic to add our
knowledge and get more information.

LITERATURE CITED
Chia-Ling,et. al, 2014
Kuo C-L, Vsevolozhskaya et. al, 2015
Olga A. 2015
Albert, J. (1995). "Teaching Inference about Proportions Using Bayes and Discrete
Models." Journal of Statistics Education, 3(3).
American Statistical Association (1998). What is margin of error? What is a survey? S. o.
S. R. Methods. Alexandria, VA.