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GDP % Growth vs. Year Ago Sectors’ GDP Growth vs. Year Ago
9.6
2017’s 6.8%
growth 7.1 7.6 8.0
6.0 6.3 7.0 7.4
exceeds 6.7% target 3.5
2.4 2.9
1.4
6.7 6.8 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017
6.4 6.2 6.2
6.0 Agriculture Industry Services
5.7 5.4 5.4
5.3
CPI Growth vs. Year Ago
Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
9.2
6.6
4.1 CPI is under target 4%,
2.7 3.5 indicating well-managed
0.6 monetary policy
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
TOP 5:
HIGHEST IN PAST 10 YEARS
INDIA | CHINA | MALAYSIA | TURKEY | UAE
3
Source: GCR 2017-2018 report by World Economic Forum - GRDI report 2017 by A.T. Kearney
PROMISE LANDS: MIGRATION REVEALS OPPORTUNITIES
IN BOTH URBAN & RURAL
DEMOGRAPHICS 2017 – URBAN VS. RURAL MIGRATION FLOWS (% of migrants)
100 4.0
65 56 47 45 24
18%
80 Increase
3.0
consumer base
2.3
60 2.2 2.2
2.6 URBAN
2.0
50%
1.6
40
Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
20
1.0
3%
35 44 53 55 76 RURAL
0 0.0
Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Bring urban
lifestyle to rural
Urban population (%) Rural population (%) 29%
Urbanization rate (%)
Source: Regions follow government’s definition. GSO Population report 2016. Net migration = immigrants – emigrants 4
The World Factbook (CIA, 2017)
AS ECONOMY FLOURISHES, CONSUMERS’ CONCERN
SHIFTS FROM JOB SECURITY TO PRICE
17,000
Source: Tapchitaichinh.vn 6
DESPITE Q4 SLOW DOWN, FMCG STILL SEES POSITIVE
GROWTH IN 2017
FMCG Growth YA – Traditional Trade Nationwide
8.9%
6.5% 6.4%
5.6% 5.7%
5.4%
4.9% 4.8% 7.9%
3.8% 5.1%
3.2% 5.8%
4.5% 3.2% 5.0%
2.8%
1.0%
2016 2017 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17
Unit Value Growth Volume Change (Weighted Value) Nominal Value Growth
Categories including: Shampoo, Hair Conditioner, Toilet Soap, Toothpaste, Toothbrush, Feminine Protection, Laundry, Dishwashing Liquid, Fabric Softener, Household Cleaner, H.I.
Aerosol, H.I. Coil, Insecticide Control, Msg-Bouillon, Instant Noodles, Biscuits, Pie & Sponge Cake, Soft Drink, Energy Drink, RTD Tea, Fruit Juice, Package Water, Sport Drink, Coffee , Beer,
RTD Milk, SCM, Sauces, Chili Sauce, Tonic Fodd Drink, Cigarette.
7
…DRIVEN BY RURAL AT A FASTER PACE
6.1%
5.4%
4.9% 4.9%
4.1% 4.0%
3.2% 3.0% 5.4%
4.5%
3.0% 3.2%
Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
1.8% 1.9%
1.0% 0.8%
0.8% 0.8%
MAT
2016LY MAT
2017TY MAT
2016LY MAT
2017TY 2016LY
MAT 2017TY
MAT
10.0%
7.8% 9.0% 9.4%
6.0%
5.4% 4.8% 5.4% 3.7% 6.5%
1.3% 5.7% 6.0% 5.3%
5.1%
2.1% 4.0% 3.5%
1.3%
0.5% 1.3%
-1.7% -3.0%
-6.5%
POSITIVE TOURISM –
EFFECTIVE DYNAMIC
BUSINESS EMERGING
REGULATIONS MIGRATIONS
PROSPECT FACTOR
Decreasing interests & FDI Influx & Manufacturers’ Multi-billion-dollar industry Opportunity for both
Maintaining tax rate willingness to spend showing potential urban & rural markets
•
TO KEEP WATCH
• Unforgiving natural disasters affect people’s livelihood