$ATU RI\l-6

mulation-assignment'model
I si
for the eualuation of
traffic management schemes

by M. D. Hall, D. Van Vliet and L. G. Willumsen THE MODEL

lnstitute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds 'In effect SetunN may be thought of as a
sophisticated traflic assignment model. In
common u'ith virtually all such models ir
assumes that the underlying tra{Iic patrern
represented b1, an O-D trip matrix is fixed
Tbe implemenr"-rion of Traffic l\lanagement Scbemes is one of the most flexible and effective (although changes in modal split and or
wa1's of promoting a better use of tbe transport facilities alailable in an utban area; this t1'pe of
drstribution may be incorporated exlernall\
measule is particularll importaru in periods where the economic and environmental climale
using conventional rechniques). The model
pre is hearl expenditure on nen roadr Currentll the design of Traflic Management Schemes incorporates two phas.es: a detailed
relies on a mixture of intuition. p*s! experience, established traffic engineering practices and
simulation model of delal'5 s1 intersections
'before and after'ass€ssments. Hor+erer, these tools restrict the anall'sis to I ver) limited number
coupled with an assignment phase which
of alternatires end cannot but overlook the wider effects of such schemes on the network as a
'determines the routes taken by the abore-
thole. a criticism made b1' Thomsonr as long ago as I!)68. Despite this. until verv recentll little
mentioned O-D trips. We first briefl5
effort had been expended in developing appropriate models which nould further tbe understanding
describe the various components of the
of the problems involred.
model (the two phases) before describing the
Treditional models had concentrated on two are&s" At one extreme fine-scale simulation
offered a detailed exploration of the *a1 in uhich vebicles interacl, but was ine\ itabll' restricted to
uar in which thel are linked. A more
a haodful ofintersections and ignored the problem ofredistribution ofllows In contrast. capacitl-
detailed description has been eir'6n
elseu here:.
restrained assignment models *orhed at a less exacting level, but had prored far from ideal in
urban contexts where junction delals were of critical irnportance. ,Although this problem might be
The simulation model
approached b1 the incorporation of improved flow{ela1 relationships into assignment models.
The primarl, objective of rhe simularion is ro
these tould ineritabll be unresponsile to certain aspects of scheme design {e.9. signal phase
determine -junction dela_vs resultins from a
structure and offsets;. There appeared to be a need for a model specificalll- designed for tbe
gilen paltern o[ traffic. To do this rve make
eraluation of limited area tralfic management schem6s which *ould incorporate certain desirable
ts'o fundamental assumptions:
features from each ofthe abore classes ofmodel. This paper describes such a model. SerlRr
{Simulatioo and Assignment of Traflic in Llrban Road Netn'orks), developed at the lJnirersitl of
Leeds' Imtitute for Transport Studies orer a period of three 1ears.
{/} that the patrern of traffrc l}ous ts
cL-)nstanr over time periods c-rf the orcier ol
The paper is presented in three parts. Tbe first describes the model S.qrunr and its components.
30 minutcs: and
The second describes a closell'-related rechnique lor updating an O-D matrix using a limited set
of traffic counts. The linal section prorides details of the application of both models to the town of
tl,} for simulation purposes. thar a cvclical
Hz gate in l'iorth Yorhshire. behariour is imposed on the flo'ris bt
I traffrc signals operating u'ith a common
cr,cie rime (tlpicalll in the ranse 6tt,i:0
l. The SATU RN model,",'*ol'o'['.$ l;l;::i"j:i: ji::$,,'i secLrnds ).

to 100 intersections. The ler el t-if detaii The hrst of these assunrptions is shared br
deroted to delal's at inteisections. one ol lrrtuall_r all models in this area and enable.
INTRODUCTIO\ Scrtnr's most atrractive feaiures. has been us to relr on a hxed trip matrir. lt also
Sqtt'nr seeks to answer the question: ho* designed so thal reasoaable compurer times reslricts us to the investi_eation of the arerase
uill trafllc flou's in a network change in are achieved for such netu'orks. It is therefore behaviour c-f the svstem u'ithin the gir en tinre
response to a lrafhc manasement schen.re? appropriate for either self-contained areas in period. although \fr..e are currentl_r iooking
Beingconcerned primarily n'ith routes taken large cities or for freestanding tos'ns ol less into the problems invol,'ed in lrnking a
b1' drilers it is most naturalll suited to than 100000 population. For larger numher of tin.re periods (each with ciisrrnct
evaluate schemes u'hich affect trafilc networks conventional assignment models O-D matriceslto represent. for erar,.rple. thr
mo\emeni. such as the introduction of one- become appropriate anci for ver3' small build-up and decline of deniand through a
wa\ streets, banned turns. cell schemes. bus- net*orks (such as detailed studies ol peak period.
onll lanes. pedestrianisation schemes, roundabouts) more detailed simulations The second assumption allo 'r's t he
changes in junction design. etc. It is less become computationally feasible. simulation to concentrate on a single cvcle.
suited ro deal uith measures *'hose primarl Other attraclive features of Sarunx making a detailed simulation possihle uhile
effect is to change trip origins andror include the wide range ol junction types aroidrn_a man_v of the overheads norntalll
destinarions, such as changes io parking modelled, the relative simplicity of its data associated with simulation. \l'ithin each
policies (although it will deal wilh route input. the inclusion of performance indices clcle u e represent traihc b1 sem j-continuous
choices for an altered trip marrix). Neirher such as the number of vehicle stops. the fact 'flou profiles' as opposed to modellin-e
has it been designed to acr as an optimisation that being u'ritten entirell in Fonrun it is. individual vehicles or packets of vehicles
progiam lor traffic signal settings, although as far as possible. machine-independent. and These features. togelher uitb the use ol
signal setrings are simulated in some detail; a the inclusion of a technique for updating trip plaroon dispersion of trallic along links.
sufllcient range of signal optimisation matrices to match observed counts. The last represent techniques used successfull_r in the
programs alreadl' exists. technique is described in detail in Part II. signal optimisation program TReNSr.T3.
 Tbr rimulrtim rtrrctre. The cyclic llow
prolile {CFP} tbc flow of trallrc past a cotain
point as a function of tirne over a single cycle
{the cycle lcngrh being that of the traflic
signals in the networkf is the main building-
block for the simulation. The model can be
scen as a collection of spocialised routines
each designed to modify the CFPs according
to prevailing conditions. To achieve this,
CFPs are altached to individual turning
movements and provide the basis for the
detailed analysis of delays.
If we consider a single node within a
nelwork each turn has associated with it four
CFPs, as illustratd in Fig l. For the turn
from link f to link j, these are:
(/) the IN pattern, the flow profile at the
upstream end of link i;
{2i the ennlvr pattern, the profile at the
downstream end of i;
(3) the ACCEIT patrern oftraffrc which can
actualll, make the turn; and
(4) the our parrern.'the flow ar rhe
upstream end of1.
These profiles are related as follows. The
IRRIvE patrern is derived from rhe rx by a
,Srocess of platoon dispersion. The accrpr
patlern is derived independently and is based
essentially on juncrion capaciries. signal
timings and offsets. and conflicting traffrc. It
can also account for the phenomenon of
'blocking back' *'hereby queued traffic on
link.l inhibits the fiou. of vehicles our of i. The
function of the nccrpr pattern is that of a
sophisticated filrer. since delal's to each
turning movement are determined by the
extent to which the ACCEeT pattern .caters
for' the ARRTvE profile; clearly this is a critical
part of the process and one which will be
examjned more closell in the lollowing
sections. For turns'A'hose total ARRIVE
patlern exceeds the total ACCEPI pailern
queues are assumed to build up at a constanl
rale over the simulation period.
Finalll. the ouT paltern for a 1uin. derived
from the ARRIvE and.cccepl pafterns.
contribuies to the tora! tr patrern for
succeeding tu;ns.
] Becau'e the oL;T patterns at a node
contribute lo the l\ patterns ol succeeding
links. trafTrc is 'moYed' ihroueh the netu.ork.
This also requires rhai rhe siitulation model
be iteratile. since nor onll'do changes to the
ol,T pailerns affect the lx patterns at
follou'ing juncrions. bur the AccEpr profiles
are also affected b-r changes in the CFps of
opposrng movernents. Each link fand each
node) is dealt rr'irh in {urn belore repeating
the entire process. Thls ensures that at each
stage \{e use updated inlormation on the lr*
palterns and on conflicring fiows. The
process is repeated unlil no significanr
changes are delected between successir.e sets
ol out profiles.
The modelling of junctions. Since junction
delay,s are one of the major determinants ol
urban travel times. the accurate modelling of
such delal,s assumes considerable
importance in S.qrunx. The follou.ing
junction types are modelled separately:
traffrc signals. Pelican crossings. priority
junctions (including merges)- and
roundabouts.
ARRIVI pottern
Fig L The four basic c3'clical .flou prof
for the turning motemenr -{rom link 'i' to lnk 'j'.
In contrast to the majority of assignment
models, dela5's at intersecrions differ for
di{Ierent turning movemenrs. The careful
calculation of turn-dependent
patterns is clearly important and involves
much of the computational effort. purpose-
built routines are emploved for each t1,pe of
turning movement at an intersection. Thus,
for example. there are separaie routines
u hich specificalll calculate the
conflicting u'ith a lefr rurn. a right turrr or a
straight-on movement at a stop-line of a
prioritl junction. Turn markers are used in
this insrance to idenrifl the type of turn
under consideratron.
Other innovations in the simulation
include the adoption of a gap accepianc€
formulation in the calculation of merging
and crossing capacities and the classificarion
of junction approaches according to lane
markings. The firsr means thai the level of
mergin_e flo* r'arjes throughout the c;-cle in
response 10 the instantaneous strensth of
opposing flows: the second enables us to
calculate the disiribution of turnins ilo*.s
betg'een the ar,ailable lanes and so deLrmrne
interactions betueen distinct mo\ements
with greaier confidence.
By usin_e these rechniques in combinarion
r.i,ith the inlormarion concerning turn and
link capacities *e account for:
(i) delal's caused bl opposing llo*.s.
righr-turning traffic:
(fi) delays due to vehicles on the same link.
e.g. the eflecl on straight-ahead traffic of
impeded righr-turners in a shared lane:
(t,t) the shape of arriving platoons:
(ir I the effect ofphase structure and offsets
al trafltc signals; and
(r,1 individual lane capacities.
In dealing with roundabouts, Srrunr
employs an itcrativc prdure
which s€ek
to mirror the complicated conflicts whic
sctually occur. Though develope,
independeutly, lhe roundabout sub.modt
eppean to usc an approach very similar t,
one rc$ntly reported b'y TRRL4.
Tbe rssignment modd
Tbe objective of the assignment phase is t
select for each eleroent in the trip matri
minimum time routes through the networi
bearing in mind the relationships betwee
travel time and flows. The model uses a
'equilibrium technique's which optimall
combines a suocession of all-or-nothin
assignments such that the ultimate flor
pattern satisfies the above criterio
(commonly referred to as 'Wardro
equilibrium'). While the concep! of fastest
routes-only is open to objections in larg
networks where obvious exceptions aJ
observed frequentll. it is probably,
muc
more valid for small networks where th
potential routes open to each O-D pair ar
relativell distinct.
The model assumes: (.l ) that the rravel tirn
ofeach link is fixed independent olflo$'. an
(21 that the delal to each turning movemer
at an intersection is a function ofthat turnin
les ( CFPs t volume. The simulation model is used t
mode! tbe'floudelay' curves bv calcularin
the delays lor each turning movement at zer
flo*. current flow and capacity with all otht
flou's (i.e. opposing traffic) fixed. Given thes
three points a curve is fitred having the forn
y<c
(do+al'"
ACCEpr d(i'): { ......rr
( dtCr+ Ttt'-C);2C V > C
rr'here
dtl'; :11'r. al'erage junction dela
e>:perienced by a turning volume l
flou.s C : the rurn capacitr (equals th
inregrated ACCEIT profi le )
do : the delal ar zero flou.
o and n are tuin-sp€cific parameters
7- : durarion ol the simulation perioc
The Iinear seciion of lhe curve ccrresporrd
to queues builcirng up a1 a unilorm rar
throughout the simulation perioci.
The complete model. The complele mocie
is based on an jterarile loop betq,een th
assignmenr anC simularion phases (Fi*e I
Thus the simularion derermines !lo',r'-dela
curres based on a giren set d turnin'
movements and feeds them to ih
Fig 3, The siniulatioti and assignntt'nt phasc,s
5.,l rt n.r.
tt.
NETWORK .+
OATA
e.g. to
NEW LINK FLOW -DELAY
FLOWS C URVES
TRIP
-l.1ATRlx
 rGiprDGDt. tbe us[nmcnt in rum uscs
tbcsc cgrrts to dacrminc route cboicc end
bcncc updatcd turning movgments. Tb6c
itcrations mntinuc until thc turniag
movrflEnts rcrch reesonably stable vslues.
The rcason for this .ouier' iteration is
isscntislly tbat the delay ctrves (Equation
{lilud by the assignmcnt are based onJired
values of opposing trall'ic at cach
intersection. However, as each assignment
gives dilferent opposing flows, so too does
the- sjmulation gve dillerent delay curves
and, in turn, different assignments. ihus the
dependence o[ delay. d1lz1, on llow y is
incorporated within the assignment phase
via Equation U} whereai the wider
dependence on opposing flows is catered for
by the 'outer'loop.
lVhile ultimate convergence to stable
values is dilficult. if not impossible, ro
cstablish theoretically, tests on realistic
networks have all shown that rcasonably
stable values are reached after 4 to 7
iterations.
We shoutd- also stress that, although
described as two separate phases, Snruix
appears as a single program lo the user- The
sim"lrtion and assignmenl stages are run
aui hticalll' wirhout user intervention
until either convergence has been achieved or
a sfrecified nurnber of iterations performed.
USE OF SATURN
Data requiremerts
Two distinct forms of data input are
required. The first is an O-D trip matrir
representing the period of inreresr. The G-D
is conventional in most respects. but must
reflect the localised effects of a tralllc
management scheme by using a verv fine
zoning system. This is especially important
since a coarse matrix leads to the loss of
manl' of the benefirs to be gained from
detailed modelling. trt was partiv to reduce
the difllcuhies lnvolved in gathering an G-D
marrix rhat the techniques for updating a
malrix using traific counts 1as deicribed- in
parr III were incorporated in Sarunx.
T' )second input is nerwork dara. As usual
the ,*id neruorl is described graphicalll as
a set of nodes and connectine links.
Additional informatiorr is essentialit ncde-
based. u rrh the eract derails varr,inn o irh rh*
junction ty'pe. In eeneral data refer to
-tunctlon type. ro entr1, links to the node (free
run times. Iengths- Iane struclure, etc.lanC ro
turns {saiuration f}ou's and typesl,
The
saluration flous represent unopposed values
and can often be taken as functions of the
t_o^d geometr-v. In
additlon. stage
descriprions and oflsers are required for
traffrc signals: and cenrroid connictors for
the assignmenr phase.
In its curreni implementation on the
Universirl. lCL 19064 nelworks are
restricted to a maximum of 60 nodes. 160
links and 360 turns. However, increasing
these values presents no real difilcultiei
provided thar sufllcient core is ai,ailable-
the presenl versions require l00K for
simulalion and 60K for assignment *.
* Although. in fact.
considerablv more core mar be
needed if rhe rrip marrix updaie facilirl is usid.
R-m!g timcs charly elso depend on
Dct?ort riae; for the Harrogatc nctwork
dcscribcd in Ptrt III a oormal-comptcte run
rcquirod sround six minutes of CpU.
Orput
Output facilities currently available on
Srrunx include detailcd performance
TFsuTs at evcry interscction including
delays for each turn, flow and queue proliles
aud warnings of congestion. Selected
cxamples are given in Part III. In addition.
staDdard network-wide perlormance indices
sucb as total vehicle-hours, etc., are listed. It
is algo possible to analyse the G-D trips
makiag up any particutar turning
movements and to calculate travel times for
each G-D pair. The latter facility allows one
to determine precisely who benefits and who
loses from a particular scheme.
Improvements to the model output are
currently underway. including a sub-routine
to calculate the total number of vehicle stop
starts and the use ol graphical displays.
CONCLUSIONS
Since Seruxs is not the onll model available
in the U.K. for lhe analvsis of rrafllc
management schemes it ma,r be useful to gir,e
a brief comparative description of oiher
similar models for the benehr of porenrial
'customers'. Ihree alternatives. CoxtR.qlt.
TR.lrFFlce and TneNsrcts, have been
described recently6. ;.8,
Firstl1,, TRarrrcq is a pure simulation
model designed to treat tralhc management
schemes over much smaller networks than
Serunr. typically l0junctions or less. While
ll. Updating 0-D matrices
INTRODUCTION
Trip malrices are normallr, required for the
desiga and evaluation of traffic management
schemes and other transporr projects. Since.
as nrentioned before. Serenx is based on a
fired G-D matrir it is cleai that the accurac\.
of the resuirs u'ill depend criricalll on rhe
vahciitl of thar marrii. Roadside inrervieos
and numberplate surtels are the t\r'o mosl
common methods for obtaining O-D
matrices. Ho*'ever. these techniques are
expenstve in lerms oldisruptions. manpo\\.er
and dara processing. as weil as being subject
to errors both in the obserr.ations themselres
and the grossing-up factors used to derive
'complete' malrrces.
Orr the other hand. tralfic counts are less
expensive to obtain. represent a I 0() per cent
sampie and are usualjv ccllecred rrrore or less
regularlv for a variety of uses. I!4oreover. the
automalic collection and prepiocessing of
vehicle counts is well advanced and further
reductions in cost are to be expected.
A separate projectat the institule for
Transport Studies has therefore been
investigating methods for obraining O-D
matrices directly lrom tralllc counts. The
technique developed is based on rhe
principles of entropl' maximisation: in
essence we calculale the 'most likely' trip
it modcb.intcrscctions in grcater dctail than
Srtunx il docs assumc g-fired
assignment
FttTo determincd cxogenously. Ir is
thcrefore Dot an assignmen-t modci.
UoNTRAM, on the other bsnd, trears
netrrorks of a rimilar size to S,lrunx anO
1111cgnUin5 simutation with assignmenr. I1
dlgers from Srrunx in that it treais packers
of vchicles rather th&n flow orofifes and
d-irectl;- models the rcal_time
;;i.
",i;;';i.
thebuild-up and decline of t."ff;;;;r;;;i
period as opposed to assumins iixed
demands over a series of fixed time p.;iJ;;;
Serunx does. It would appear, howe""r,ii,"i
Serunx treats junctions in greater detail.
Finally, TRrNstcx is a far
more
conventional assignment rnodel than the
other three and may be used on rnuch larger
networks. Its principal characteristic is that
it allo*'sjointly for the optimisation of trafllc
signal settings using TneNsyt3 and the
consequenl re-assignment of traffic. Bv
contrast SATUR^* assumes fixed signal
settings. although it would be reiatively
straightforn'ard ro use TRnnsrr i;
conjunction with Sertinr,i to determine
signal sertings. One consequence of allowing
larger oetworks is tbat TRANSIGN gives les-s
detail to junction rnodelling. Ii is alsb used ro
sug_eesl traffic mana-eemenl schemes to the
user. whereas Serunn is designed to evaluare
predetermined schemes {although clearll, the
insight gained by one run of Serunx mir be
applied lo impror.ed ner*'ork designs).
Since all four models will be applied
shortll' to the same set of data collicted
recentl) in Bedford it should soon be possibie
to pres€nt a clearer picture on their relative
merits and demerits.
mairrx consistenr with all the avaiiabie
iniormation. ln the simplest case the orilr
informarion available ma1 be a limiiei
nurnber ol tra{fic counls. ln other cases r\.e
ma-r har e additional 'clues'ro the irip matrir.
trip matrix from a prer.ious sur\..\.
e.g. an oici
a suiver-based a.m. peah matrix to be useC
*irh p.m. peak counrs. or an independenr
estirnare oi the rotal number ol trips.
Irr rhrs article we shali be prinraril_r
conl-erred g.ith the case u.here we u.ish io
update an old trip marrix using laier counls.
aithough the principles are rnuch more
general. Equalll we restrici ourselr es ro
GD vehicle rrip matrrces * hereas ths
principles also appl] to. for exerr,ple.
estimatrng public transport mairjces or
turning movement( al interseci jons..
Detailed descriptions of rhe model are
availabir elseu'here ! o t t; o. gile onll a
summal_r' here.
THE ESTI\TATION PROBLE\,I
A crucizil inpul in an! melhod of this kind is
the identification of which O-D pairs use
each link**. and in partlcular those links for
'*A_lthough ne use rhe rerm ..link.. lhroushour uc
could equalll uell be referring i.- irr"i"e
mOtemeDlS.
 ':*t r':.
*ticD rc hct ssrntl. Wr &! tb vrlhblc
fiar thcprobrbility that a triphom odgin i
to deetinetionj uscs linl a. Io 3:ocral y'u hrs
vducs bctwccn 0 and I, thc lrrtcr vben all
uips from i to j trarrcl owr link a.
- tt is now possible to wriu a
Gqurtion giving the llow on crch link:
u. *LTut"
t!
We therefore seek values of the uip elements
?u which, in some sense, give the best fit
betwcen the modelled flo*s F. given by
Equation (2) and the obscrved llows P. on
certain links and arc consistent with any
other information available.
The parameters pi, clearly rcpresent route
choice and as such may bc derived from an
assignment model. in this particular case
from the assignment phase of SerunN
described in Part I. Thus an all-or-nothing
assignment yields pf, : I for all linls a on
the unique route froir i to j,0 otherwise. For
assignment?nethods such as the equilibrium
assignment used in SlTuRx intermediate pi,
values result.
In a study area with n origins and n
Fstinations there are n: - n uaknown I;
elements (disregarding intra-zonals). Thii
number is likely to be much larger than the
number ol independenr {see below) counts
available and hence there are insufficienr
Equations (2) uniquely to determine I;. Ttre
problem is underspecified and there may be
more than one O-D matrix that
reproduce the observed counts.
Furthermore, trafl'ic counts are certainly
not error-free. The two most important
problems associared with their use in
estimating trip matrices, independence and
inconsistency, are illustrated in Fig 3, a small
network with rwo origins (i,2) and two
destinations (3,4).
Fv3
Independence. Some counls mav well
fail to add any information. For eximple.
couht l;1o is superfluous if i;'1 . and l'2.
have aireadr been counted, since from
flow conrinuir\
conditions:
4u : i',-. + iis, There are rherefore onl)
three independent counrs in Fig
Inconsistencl,. Counting errors and
asynchronous counting are likely to lead
to inconsistencies in the flows: e.s,
?ru * ?rr+ 7r,. Techniques areavailabie
to reduce the problems of measurements
made at different times and daies and it is
possible to use the flow continuity
conditions to remove any remaining
inconsistencies by means of maximum
likelihood techniquesto or by manual
corrections.
rnf, SNrxlPY Mrlhostf{c
SOLUTTON
Eatropy 'rlarriabiry tehn;'rrc hrw bcn
*irldy urcd in trmsporl urbrn rDd rqiomt
etanning" prtinrlarly followiug th wo* of
eimple WilsoDr'. For cramplc, thc convtotkrnrl
doubly.consuaincd rrip disuibution modd
corrcsponds to linding tbc marimum-
...(2) $tropy trip metrix which is onsistcnt witb
origin and dcstinatior totels plus r eost
eonstr&int.
ln our problem we elso ssrl an cntropy-
maximisllg trip matrix, but now onc that is
mnsistent with observed couns on links,
The problem may be stated as
MgIimis€:
$: - Et4rl"g. T,i-Tr) *...(3)
iJ
subject to
i/.- L7;p"u = 0 ......(4)
tj
for all counted links a.
The formal entropy-maximising solution
to the case where our only information &bout
the network is contained in the set of link
courts is given by:
T,i: f7X"f' ......(s)
where tbe product is taken over all [nks
can
where we have observed connts. The factors
X" associated with each such link are in fact
related to Lagrange muldpliers, but in
simpler terms may be thought of as Furness-
type'balancing factors'applied to link flows
rather than trip ends.
An importanr variation on this model is
obtained if, in addition to link coutrts, we
have an a priori estimate of the trip matrix,
l,r: e.g. obtained from a coaventional survey
carried oijl some years previous to our
counts. in this cas€ one mal show that the
best estirnate of the up-to-date trip matiix is
given by:
Ti: t,ifi,x"f' ......(6)
Both models are cases of the
multiproportional problem and can b€
solved by a general algorithm put fo$-ard by
Murchlandr3. This algorithm takes one lini
with counts ar a time and modifies all the G-
D pairs using that link so that modelled flows
match observed ones. In this way improved
estimates ol the 'link balancing factots' Xo
are obtained at each stage. All linls with
counts are processed at each iteration and
ths algorithm is said to have converged *'hen
1. all nodelled {lon's are within, say, 5 per cent
of the obser-ved ones.
Some properries of this model are worth
stating at this stage:
(l) The model requires rbat the traffic
counts are consistent, although not
necessarily independenr.
!2) The model generates the most likely
O-D 'matrix consistent with th;
information contained in the counts. It
does not require counts on all links in the
s$rt' dthough of oenc I eon
ooudctc r.t of counts drould improvc tlx
rceurlr? of *F Btittrstcd netrix.
t3)Giwn lbet ccnain conditions an
setiff (sce bclowl thc cstimatcd O-E
Dstrir rproduocs the obscrved 0ows.
(4 Usc of cxtrs information about rhr
matrix, such as an old trip &etrir or thr
totat numbcr of trips, specds ul
convergence and improves the cstimate.
(5) Matrices for diffirent time periods mal
bc obtained provided that thc time taker
to drive through the area is shorter thar
the counting period. The trip mstrix fron
one time period may be uscd as an a prior
esdmate for the next.
Three basic conditions must be satisfied fo
the estimated trip matrix to reproduce full.
the observed counts when loaded onto th'
network:
(l) The observed flgws should b
consistent.
(2) Tbe assignment model used rr
estimate the p'u should be realistic and it
results compatible with the observer
Ilows. Problems occur, for example. whe:
link a has an observed volume l,; > O Uu
Pi: : 0 for all 9 pairs. Under thes
conditions the modelled flows v''ill alwav
be zrcro and convergenc€ will b
impossible. Thus a good assignmen
model is required and its integration witi
the CI-D estimation model is discusseC i:
the next section.
(3) The observed flows and the a priori tri,
matrix should be compatible. Thi
incompatibilitl is found when a link has
flow lz, > 0 but all the G-D pairs u'ir
Pl > 0 have r', : 0. In this case again th
modelled flows will alwaS's be zero. Thi
problem will be discussed iater in th
'Treatmenl of Zero Celis' secticn.
TRIP MATRIX ESTI]ITATION
AND ASSIGNIIIENT
Clearly. if we are going to use tra{fic counts r,
tell us something abour '.rip matrices u.
must have reliable information about x.&ic
y'pairq use the counted iinks: i.e.. the pi, mus
be accurate. Heoce our assiglmeni rnodel fo
route choice must be realisric-
Tn o disrincr assignment siruarions mai b
identified: (t)'proporriranal assignmen
where route choice mal be determine,
independer.t of the trip marrix. and (i,
'congested assignment' where route choic
depends on the trip matrix. The forme
situation applies to relativell lightly-loade,
networks such as inter-urban road network
or to public transport netxorks when th
number ol available routes is small. Here rh
pii are fixed and the estimared trip marrice
when assigned to these routes reproduce th
observed flows.
However, in congested networks we fac
two additional problems. Firstly, it is difilcul
to determine route choice (even for a hxer
trip matrix) because of the feedback effec
wbereby route choice depends on trarr
times, but travel times are themselve
functions of route choice*. Self-consisten
a Since route
cboice determines the flox on linl
which in turn afTects travei times.
 coJutions to this problcm mry h obtdd
with 'cquilibrium' modchs as uecd by
SetunN. Ttrc record pnoblcq dso i
Hback dfcct. ir tber the trip glatrir
lstimacd dcpends on route choicr {via rhe
#;). but the route choic in rurn dcpcirds on
the trip matrix.
The sccond problem may perhaps bc bcst
illustrated by the highly-simplificd nerwork
ir shown in Fig 4. Herc we have one origin. i.
and one destination. j, and three links of
interest. c, b and c. We shall assume 'lixed'
travel times of 5 minutes on a and b and 1.25
minutes on c, and additional junction delays
at the exits from a and b which are directly
ProPortional to their lirrk flows, li and Pr.
and also dependent (in some unspecilied
manner) on the cross-trallic along c.
. Let the old trip'matrix'1,, = I ff)O. and its
base-year assignment be pi, : t.0 and
P!., : p',i = 0{: i.e. all trips uie link a in
preference to b and c. Hencc 1." : I 000 and
Ii : !, = 0. This assignmenr n'ould be a
perfectly -self-consistent. equilibrium
solution if. with I,: : 0, the junction delay
formula on a and b were
rd=000ty
since in this case the I -minure juncrion dela!.
on a is less than the exrra 1.25 minutes
incurred in using c.
Now let us assume that we have an
updated counr of I 500 vehicles on a and that
we u,ish to estimate the trip marrix. Clearly,
using pi, = I-0 and i.', : I SOO in Equarion
(l) fll' : 1500. Ho*ever. assigning
gives
Tlj ' all-or-nothing via a gives a junclion
delal' of d, : 1.5 minures which. is greater
than the comparable travel time on e : hence
some trips *ould divert to b-r'. In facr an
equilibrium assignmenr for lrt, qiles
P'i, : 0'9t? and pl.i : p';; = U'0E3.
This
illustrares rhe feedback menrioned abore
from the trip matrix to route choice. The neu.
Fir_talue in turn produces a second esrimate.
7"lr'' : 6-16. which. when assiened. gires a
different value for pi, again. 0.881. Ho*erer.
.ePelition-s of thls procedure u,ould
ultimately arrire at the follo* ing self-
bonsistent solurion:
7,i : 1i50
P, = 0'6J: pl, = p',,: 0.143
I;:l-s00 r;=l:250
This suggests the follouing od ftoc irerarile
algorithm for lindine self-consistent
malrices:
(J) Assign (using equilibrium merhods) a realistic lestbed for an assessmenl of
base-r,ear matrix t,, ro obtain a first
esllmale of p:;.
(l) Estimate f; using rhe currenr pir.
t3) Assign I, ro obtain updared pi.
(4) Return to (JJ unless rhe changei in pi,
have been suflicienrll, small.
While it is clear rhat. in our simple example.
the above method does converge to the
proper solution. in general terms
convergence is not guaranleed_
There are. how ever. more complex
Fig t.
problems which are thrown up by detailed
assignment rnodels such as SlrunN. Thus in
the above example the flowdelay
relationship, d = O00l l', was apparenrll.
based on the assumption that. as in the base-
year. { : 0. However, if ti : 250 as above
and rafllc
on c has priority over that on a we
might expect the coeflicient to be higher than
0'001 on a. say d,, = 0-002 li. Repeating the
calculations would no\A yield a quite
differenr equilibrium assignment and
estimate. 7rr = 3250 and 1,, : 1750.
suggesting that once again a quite differenr
value of the coelficienr mighr be appropriare.
This is a further illustration of
the
problem. alreadl. referred ro in Part I. that
the standard equilibrium assignment models
strictll spcaking only appll'ro networks *.ith
fxed ilou'-delay relarionships of the form
d. : d"lr'"), nor those wirb more compler
flow-delay inreracrions. The irerations
bet*'een the assignment and simulation
sdages in SeTt'nx attempt to find self-
consislent assignments on a purelv ad hot
basis. although in theorl, more than one
equilibrium solution mal.exist. The extended
problem of seif-consistent assignments arrd
estimated malrices is clearly even more
complex.
ln the absence of reliable theorerical
methods a reasonable approach u,ould be to
follou the same ad lior irerarrli aleorithm
outlined above in rhe hopes thar ii wouid
lead to reasonabh self-consisrent solutions.
lll. Application to Harrogate
INTRODUCTION
After preliminar) tesrs of Salt,Rr on both
s)'nthetic and real netn orks a demonstration
project \\'as set up in conjunction u.ith Norrh
}'orkshire Countl' Council and Harrogare
Borough Council. The objectives ol .rhe
project were tu'ofold: firstl1 , ro provide a
SATL'R!c: and secondll, to heip the iocal
authorit\ in ihe evaluation of a number of
alternative traffrc management schemes for
Harrogate.
It must be stressed. however. that the
schemes which have been tested to dale rrere
designed *'ith the primary objecrive of
testing SATURx and rhar thel do nol in anv
wa)' represent the policies o[ either
Harrogate or North Yorkshire.
This concluding part of the paper
describes the results of these tests.
Now, horrevcr, we can adopt one of t*'
assignment procedures in step (3F-cithcr
standard cquilibrium sotution assumin
lixed flowdelay cgrves es in a singi
asstgrment $age of SffUnX, or a mor
complex bur sd ftoc method ruch a
employcd by a full run of SetunN. Resulr
from using the sequence in borh ways will b
described in Parr lll.
THE TREATMENT OF ZERO
CEL_IS
Observed trip matrices. in particular tbos
obtained from small sampling fracrions, ar
likely to contain a large number of zero ceil
These may be 'true'. zeros if they represer
impossible or highly unlitely journe,vs. bt
are much more likely to be zeros'by chano
due to limirations in the samplin
framework. A c.ell with no observations in
l0 per crent sample is probabl,i- nc
significantly diflerent from another ce
where I tnp was observed. Ho*,ever. fior
Equation {6} it is clear that if rhe observe
tr, : 0 tben so must the updated 7,,. a r
entirely desirable outcome as it lead-. ro t
inconsistency problem mentioned in ri
section on 'The Estimation Problem'.
A pragmaric solution ro this problem is r
'seed'the zero cells in the a priori marrix r
with suitable small values {eirher before c
after grossing up) so that all potenrial rn
interchanges will be possible in the update,
matrix. Under tbis arrangement lhe 'seedei
cells will be modihed by actiorr of ihe lin
balancing factors X.,, some olthem'grou'in1
Io become full trips ir1 the matrix and orher
returning to zero, depending on the counr
influencing them. This procedure shoui,
produce a more stable and less disrorted rri.
matrix.
Tbe approach jusr described can also b
used 1o ad!antage *.hen'grossrng ui
observed trip malrices from roadsrd
interviews or number plate surr,e-r's. Its nai:
adlantage is that all ar.ailable counts car b.,
used Io improve the matr;x.
Results from using a seeded maii,r. il
Harrogale are described in Parr IIi.
THE HARROGATE \ET\TORH
The trafirc managernenr scheme cuiie.il
implernented in Harrosate. shoun rn FrS :
u'as concejl.ed as a temporar\ measurr :_!(-,t
than a decade ago. Its mosr oblious feature
are the separation oi the north ani
southbound directions of the ma.;or througl
route. the A61, and the predominance of one
\r'a! streets *'ithin the central area. Trail
signal control is restricted to eigh
interseciions within rhe siudl area. bui th
effect of these was considereci su{iicienrl.
widespread lo satisf) rhe assumprions ii:ad.
within the simulation stage ofSATLTR\. Th,
system also incorporates rourrdaboui5
prioritl' junctions and Pelican crossines
Afler several preliminarl runs of the model :
nelwork comprising 45 nodes and l45 one.
ua1 links uas established for calibraiior
purposes. The centre of the net$ orl,. ir
 ,:',
rcprcsgtrtGd&rril bur only mqior
in roads T$b l. Updrtiag th; llanogrte rip rnurir
rre includcd b rhe pcriphcry. Rogd
cfpacitics wcre cstiimtcd fronr thc arometry lwrrgr lirdr AYrngr Avcragt
of individual intcncstions and truvel timei volurna volumo rbrolutt
determined by a lirnhed floirting qar survey. lnignnrent llrtrix countld rignrd diffaroncc
Demand information was aviilable in the
form of an evening pcak O-Dmatrix derivcd SATURN A Surveyed ?26 180 'too
SATURN A Previously
from a 1975 survey. A 24-zone system
updltod ?26 463
pertineDt to a study of traflic in the town 92
oentre was produccd from tbis.
I Updsted (1) 22e 207 54
B tjpdared (2) 276 209 ?o
SATURN A Updated (3) ?26 213 54
CALTBRATION B Updsted (4) 226 210 42
Thgugb SarunN is intended primarily as a
design rool for the evaluation of possible
tralfic management schemes, ctearly the first
stage in its use must involve a 'base-year' The results of rhis particular exercise have depends largely on wlrether the flow-dela.
calibration. Unlessthe model can adequately been described'in detail elsewherela and rclationships from the final iteration c
reprodue an observed trallic pattern little were perhaps more valuable lor the insight SnruRN are judged to be still valid. If th
e-onfidence can be placcd in foiecasts. tbey gave into the techniques than, given the updated trip matrix reiflects an appreciabi
lnitially the only available information in unreliability ofthe counts. for the actual trip increase in trafhc volumes these relationship
Harrogate against *hich the model could be matrix produced. For example. we found s'ould not adequatell,represent the changer
calibrated was a limited number {40) of traflic that therc was relatively little difference conditions. and the outer loop using S.aluR'
counts whicb had been collected al various between using'seeded' and'unseeded' base- would be more appropriate. However. :

junctions iid at various times over the two-
year period follou'ing the original survey.
Howerer. it soon became apparent from
preliminary runs of SaruRN that
the
lssigned fiows using rhe survel- matrix were
consistently lower than the counts. bv about
2-t per cent. Allo\r-ing for the dubious
reliabilitl of certain counts and for the
inevitable errors in network data it seemed
clear thar the O-D matrir and the observed
coBnts rxere in some way incompatible.
Indeed. given the rather haphazard manner
in which the counrs had been gathered. this
was not altogether sr,rprising. Nevertheless
these counts were used as a basis lor
updating the rrip matrix using the techniques
described in Parr II.
Fig 5. The Harrogate nervork
n Trcffrc Signols
e Pgltgqn [rossing
O Roundoboul
+!69 voy section
year matrices as discussed in the last Section
of Part II.
The problem of unreliable counts was.
however, considerably alleviared by
Harrogate Borough Council who very
kindly collected a second set of 6_1 preak-hour
turning counts around the centre of
Harrogate touards the end of l9?9.
Althou,eh these counts covered onl1. 63 out of
356 possible movements theywere
considerably more consistenl than the
original 40, and allowed us [o update the
surve)'trip matrix with far greater confidenc€
than previousll.
The procedure adopted, represenrd b),
the schematic flow charl in Fig 6, essenriall).
iollows the ad fioc iterative algorithm
presented in Part II *'herebl'an assignment
is used to derive the route choice pi;. r*'hich is
then used to determine a revised tiip matrix
{, This is then reassigned and the process
continued until stable values are found. Ihe
'assignment' can be either a single
eq uili brium assignmenl wirh fi xed f iow-dela.r.
curves as r€presenled b1, the Assi-enrj.rent B
'lnner Loop' in Fig 6. or a fuil run of Sarunr
as represented b1 the 'Ourer Loop'.
The paths represented b1 borh 'inner'and
'ou1er' loops can be vieq,ed as aimost
inrerchangeable. and a complele run of the
mode] could pass through each several times.
Which of the parhs is followed each time
differences between old and nerr matrices ar
small. considerable time is saved b1' using th
inner loop.
The results obtained at different srages i:
the procedure are shown in Table I. The lirs
ro\\' represents an initial run ol SaTL:xt
using the surveyed trip matrix. The averas
absolute difference berween the assiene,J ai,
observed flows {averaged over rhe 6
counted links) is ver3, high relative ro th
average link volume. emphasising rh
incompatibility of O-D and counrs. Th
second row gives similar results fror
SlruRx, but obtained using the marii
updated with the earlier (4C) counts: thi
shows only a marginal improvcment in rerm
of fit with the 63 counts.
Frg 6. L'pdating the trip nzatri.r
l--;;;R N--l
Bose Yec.
Trrp llcirrxi
Ner I
frrp l'toirrrr/

"lHxER toop"

YES "OUTER LOOP..

 1!tr
.',: - .ll
tm*r t. il uu'rWn or ttrr oqfrtr rro ,pcet a.nu#d*t'" comFritm wilh Fb? ahows the diwrsion
Teal orblnr to thc prrftrrcd routc, but tlcre ere elso
Tot l drotimtiont r{n}hnt chsnges in other srGas. Tbc mos!
9rhilnrl Srlglnrl
luryrFd' O-D updrtrd 'lrrvrpd' O-D updtrd Anercsting of thcsc b the reandering path
trsnr o-D by sognrr o-D ts' eunu cbccn by a proportion of gouthbound-traltrc
whi($ rcsrrlts in increascd llows within the
t 37r *9{ t8 87 lown ccntrl, &n unfortunatc b)product of a
2 2t[5 scbcc wbo* major
3 tl4
?co 1l ir2 bcnefrts were to be
?69 t4 17 euvironmtal.
4 150 2/t0
5 45 8? '3t9 .57
.|-5
Tb€ lirtit on this movement is imposed by
a diffruh tnanoeuvre, the sharp tefi turn at
6 35? 2/t0 3
7 B2
26 point ,{ in Fig 7. Changing the assumed
135 15 100
I 24 34 0 14
saturatioD llow for this turn sbowed that the
I ?37 223 42
assigDd llow was always just below
10 t16 saturation. Thus, although the absolute
87 90 79 180
11 246 12? 45 accuracy ofthe forecast is a sensitive function
12 49 54 76
, 116
243 of the aauracy of the input capacity, the
13 38 RO
43 model is elearly telling us thar this tink will be
108
14 t49 237 128 177 saturated and a serious environmental
15 877 881 962
16
507 problem.
26 RE
54 49
17 190 181
A slighrly modfied scheme with the left
334
18 247 458 1 162
233 turn at I banned in order to eliminate
1 321
19 .435 370 through tra$lc from the town centre was also
881 r 102
2A 23 47 85 tested. Tbe resulting flows within the town
88
21 128/. 1 260 1 135 903 cenre were, in fact. not very different from
22 509 675 661 those in the original scheme when a low
597
23 230 226 50 saturation flou at I was assumed. Hon'ever,
278
24r 136 78 131 269 the floq's *cre much reduced relative to the
5 951
case r*'here a high saturation flow was
6775 6775
5 951 assumed. ln view of the sensitil.it_v- of the
rcsults to the assumed capacity at a single
turn, the safest conclusion to be drawn must
The follou.ing four rows illustrate the_ simply the conceatration of rec€nt counts be that tbe model has idenrihed a critical
improvements obtained with matrices around this area. The conclusion to be drawn feature ia the planned network which would
updated using the most reoent counts. Thus must be that though we mar- nou have require further investigation.
a
row 3 gives results following the first use of better estimate .of the trip matrix.
tbe'Inner Loop'of Fig6; the new matrix (l) estimate wculd be greatly improved by the
the - Another aspect of the network changes
involved th: differential ellects on access
almost halves the average error. The inclusion of a larger number of counts in the times for each zone. Figure 9 gives a crude
remaining roq,s sllow results from further outer areas. Hos,ever. since this was not representation of these changes without
iterations following both inner and outer pracricable, the updated marrix was accepted attempting to reflect the importance ol
loops and demonstrate that rhe as a uselul basis for forecasrs. individual movements. As expected. the
improvement is maintained. The final matrix Unfortunatell' no information on delays proposed scheme resulted in considerable
obtained (4) has reduced errors by 60 per
cen1.
at individual junctions was available. so rhe disbenefits in terms of travel times,
performalce of the simulation in modellins particularly for irips originaring in the
Two reasons why significant errors still these could nor be directiv checked- northern half of the town centre. The totai
exist al the final stage are that in order to Nevertheless. queues of the righi order v.,ere ellect *'as far from uniform, though it was
ensure that the hnal trip matrix is not too pre<iicted at several important obvicus that fex areas benel'itted from the
_junctions.
distorted from the original: scheme. Of interest were the markedlr-
{I} We inserted 'seeded' values of C.45 in ALTERNATIVE NET\+ ORTr.S differenr eflects on travel times for
a.ll '"ro cells of the base-year marrix t,, so One of the major drawbacks of the current originating and destinaring raffic for a
th. , ,he corresponding updated valuei 7,, traffic management scheme in Harrogale is number olzones. Though rhe calibration was
rnight take on non-zero values. the separaiion of public transporl facilities for erening peah conditions and the results
!2) The X" multipliers in Equarion {6) of from the main shopping area b1 the qere no1 directll* transferable. the indicairon
Parl II were constrained to hL in the range sourhbound A61. A set of altei-naiive routes was that the ne* scheme wouid pe.rform r,err
0'1 ro 10.0. which would divert this traffic to the easr ol differentir under chansed fio* conditians.
Problems occurred because of alternative the bus and railway' starions before re-ioining e.g the morning peak. The conclusion io bc
rarallel routes, aggravated by a too-coarse its existing path were considered. S,e decided ciraq'n is that e\,en if the ne* neruork had
rolung system and the necessarr use of to concentrate on a single scheme u'hich. been found saiisfactorl for the p,m. peak.
nultiple centroid connectors. It became clear adopting a poiicl' of minimum change. is
hat an O-D updated b1'counts can be no shown in Fig 7 as the proposed aiternative.
further testing in the a.m. peak (and
prelerabll also off-prak conditions) wou]d be
lubstitute for a hne zoning s-vstem in the hrst This involves the closure of two one-$,av necessarv before firm recommendaiions
nstance*. streels, oDe of these being the main
Thal the ne'*.O-D does not represeot a could be made.
southbound 4.61 and, to facilitate the desired As a final commenl on the likelf impacr ol
,imple factoring of the original may be seen rnovements, the installation ol two ne\r. sets
rom the ro* and column (origin and the proposed svsiem it is interesting to view
of traillc signals as shown. The probable rhe detailed changes at a single intersecrion.
lestinationi totals shown in Table il. There benefits of such a scheme wouid be almost
ras been a growth from the original 5 951 to a
Figure i0 shows rhe before-and-afrer f'lows
entirel)' environmental since acrrss ii.ould be for the signalised intersecrion at .B in Fie 7.
oral o[6 775 rrips, but this growrh is far from generall-v worsened and the diveision *.ould
venly distribured. The largest increase is in The u'idtb and length of each i..
eslinations within the town centre (zones 1
require extra mileage, so the prospect for directly proportiona! respectively "rro*
to the
operational improvement was poor. turning volume and corresponding delaJ,
r lZi and this could reflect either rrips nor
etected by the original cordon surveJi or _ The effect of the proposed changes on obtained from the simulation. ln the ,afier.
flows along selected links is sho*'n in fig A. case the signal rirnings had been changed in
interesring possibiliry, rhar of The width of the arrows is in dirict anticipation ofexpected flou.changes and so.
.One proportion to the change in flo*. Reductions
rsaggregating an O-D matri-x thr6ugh
the use of although rhe directions of the imporrant
)unts, $'as not pursued because of the sparseness in flow are marked by diagonally-striped llou's were changed. the average delays
. counts ln the affected area. arrows, and increases by clear arrows. A incurred were reduced.

g-
 i'l;.
t.
t*rrtuj it
la! '
rrtrl *!Dlo*rd tAllrrtllin Itcn'!hfh
-I lt talry
N$ *?aEt. in lh

*****
"'7 " ' lvlltlr nllrtb
rir d rtungr I

\
+
A e
*
i+
l_+
+
+
+
/7
Ui //

F-\ U
\-\-
F

Fig 7. The central area of Hotogatc. illustrating the current southbowtd A6l
and the alrcrnati: tested.
Fig 8. Chonges in central-area fiow patterns.
Fig 9. Changes in aterage :ona! tip.tinzc resulting.front the proposed neru.ark
n -\ changes. Fig 10. Flou' pattern-\ and delox
for inter tian B in Fig 7

fl
.-.,
_lljl
cho,s.
trip
,n
tinres
ii IniI
jlill
Boseyer-oeiyo* I
o
od
xc
EN
LF
8o

t
Atbert Street
Sfutroo Brrogr
v-+
I
a----
I

A
0etoy
( secs ) Jliil
"il lU
Prppp-:ed--:s!e!c ;;
v P.h

*----J
Atberl Slreei
C------l,Sfoiion Bndgre

n
ti I I
a---
rrtl I I
 rr;:$ g'.

mNg"t stor\6 REFERIIYCES

rTHonsox, l. M. Tbc dw
t'Heut. M. D, D. V*x VuEr rnd
L. G
The rcsults so far obtaincd from Harrogate of tnfrc mrnercrncnr. Wlrluusex. Srrurx: r modcl br t}|{
have shown thst SATUnN iscapable ofgiving - J. Trans- Econ. ei Poficr', ll (lt 196i. cvaluation of trallrc tDaoartrocnt rchcnrs
r8or.uxp. J. D.. M. D. Iler-r--iad b.'viri tr"rer. PTX.C Summcr Annual Miuag. Univcrsir;
a rcasonably acctntc end dctEiled picture of
$rrUnrq-a modcl br thccyaluagon of trrtfrc of Waryick, luty t9?9.
trefiic llows end dcluys in tby traflic mlnagemertt rcbcm. Iagitue {or Transnrt
management staDdsrds) a relativcly large Stdies Working P4* 106, Leis Univeriity,
network. In addirion matrix updating r979.
rRosenrsolr, D. Thz anthors' ty'1ilres: Jzstirnte for Transwr
tcchnigues have led to r subsrantial l. Tremn: r raftic network Srudies, Unirrersity $ Iteds, I-ceds- LS29JT.'
study tool. RRL teporr LR2j3, Road
improvement in thc goodness-of-fit betwcen Research Laborator-v. Crowthoroe, 1969.
observed and predicted llows and Lre a ---
'Houlrs. Enrcr M. A program to modcl flows,
valuable addition to the modelling of timited queucs and delrp at a roundabout. Ira1fl
area trafhc maDag€ment scbemes in their ._ Engng._Control,8.
sDon'.
(4) April l9?9, 163-l6i
P. D. C. and D. Veir Vurr. Caoacirv-
own right. Certainly the achievement of a restrained rosd esignment II. Equilibriu;r
good fit at the calibration stage lends extra n_e1!4_s, Traf. hS"S Control.20- 161. June
confi dence to forecasts. 1979, 299-303.
6LEoNrno, D. R., J.
ln the long term it is anticipated that Coxtnev-a
B. ToucH and P. C. BecuLey..
traFrc assiglment model for
Snrunn will bc made available to all predicting flows and qulues durinr oeak
interested organisations as a standard periods. TRRL Reporr Lh8at, Transfrri and
computer package_ However, in the short Road Research I-eboratory. Crowthorne,
t 978.
term while it is stili being actively developed, tLocre, D. M. W, Tnerncq:
it is not possible to mount suffrcient software a comprehensive
modei for traffic maragement schehes. Trafl
support for exteroal versions and it will be Engng Control.20 (l I I November I 979, 5lL
necessary to rur all tests at Leeds. 5t8.
tcslnLrswontn,
Nevertheless. transporl planners with an J. A. Control and routeing in a
road.network. Tr$. Engng Conrrol, 20- ( I 0).
interest in applling SATUnn* to their own October 1979.460-466.
.pecific traffic management problems are eVer Zlyrrri. H. :. f-tre estimarion of turnine
leely invited to conlact the authors. flows on a juncrion. Traff. Engng Contot,26
(1 lf November t9?9.
roVa'; ZulLrx. H. J. and 539-541.
L. G. Wrr_lr_rrrlsex. The
most likell' trip ma1fi1 estimared from traflic
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ..-_-counts. Irans. Res.. I (to be published 1980).
L WIL Lr:vsrx. L. G. Estimation oian O-D matrir
It is. a great pleastre to ackno*.ledge the from trajfic counts-a revien. Insrilute for
contributions nade rc Srtt,n,,r bt John -Bolland Transport Studies V'orking Paper 99. L*ds
d.uring its birth-pangs and earlt chiidht'od ant ht Unir,ersirl, Augusr 19i8. -
Istis Ferreira in its more ,rxilur( stole. tA'e are also "\\'1t-;o1..A. G. Enrrop.r. in Urban and Regional
e-xtremely grarcful to thc nant offcers of llorth M odellino. Pion. Lo-ndon. I 9?0.
-Borough
)'or/islrire Count1 Council and Hanogate i3Mlncslrxo. J. D. The multiproportional
*.Irl tiora io,
Council u'ho hate assisred us problem. Research Note JDM 263. Transporr
Harrogate. In panicular. Roger Xing x.as Studres Group, Unrversin. College London.
instrunental in setting up the projea. 197-t