Addisu - Thesis 2021

GIS and remote sensing based mapping of desert locust outbreaks and its impact on crop
production 2020/ 2021
College Of Social Science and Humanities
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies MSC in
GIS and remote sensing
MSC Thesis
GIS and Remote Sensing Based mapping of Desert Locust outbreaks and its
impact on crop production in Amhara Region, Ethiopia
By
Addisu Teshome Tekoye
Advisor: Asayew Nebere (Ass.prof)
JUNE, 2021
GONDAR, ETHIOPIA
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College Of Social Science and Humanities
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies MSC in
MSC Thesis
GIS and Remote Sensing Based mapping of Desert Locust and its impact on crop
production in selected Zones of Amhara Region:
By
A proposal Submitted to Gondar University, Collage of Social Science in Partial
Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of
By
Advisor
Assayew Nebere (Ass.prof)
December, 2021
Gondar, Ethiopia
© 2021 Addisu Teshome
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GIS and Remote Sensing Based mapping of Desert Locust outbreaks and its
impact on crop production in Amhara Region, Ethiopia
By: Addisu Teshome
Approved by Board of Examiners
Advisor Signature Date
External examiner Signature Date
Internal examiner Signature Date
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DECLARATION
I undersigned declare that this Research report is my original work and has not been presented for
a degree in any other university, and all the materials used for this study have been duly
acknowledged.
Name
Signature
Date
This research report has been submitted for examination with our approval as a university advisor.
MSC Thesis Page I

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
First and foremost, I would thank Almighty God, for the source of all Success and his endless support
to complete this thesis paper in my life.
I am deeply indebted to my advisor and Co-advisor, Assayew Nebere (Ass.prof) and Abel Markos
(Ass.prof) for their time and guidance in doing the research work.
I would like to thank all Governmental office staff for their kind provision of the required data for this
study.
I am interested to provide special thanks to my family’s for their moral, initiation and financial support
in strengthening my academic level.
I want to thank my classmates who showed me love and support from the first day of class up to
final thesis submission.
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Table of Contents
Contents pages
ACKNOWLEDGMENT ...................................................................................................................... II
LIST OF TABLES ..............................................................................................................................IV
LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................. V
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...........................................................................................VI
CHAPTER ONE.................................................................................................................................... 1
1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 1
1.1. Background of the Study......................................................................................................... 1
1.2. Statement of the Problem............................................................................................................ 4
1.3. Objectives of the study ................................................................................................................... 5
1.3.1. General objectives ................................................................................................................ 5
1.3.2. Specific objectives ............................................................................................................... 5
1.4. Research questions ......................................................................................................................... 5
1.5. Significance of the study ............................................................................................................ 6
1.6. Scope of the Study ...................................................................................................................... 6
1.7. Organization of the Paper ........................................................................................................... 6
1.8. Limitation ................................................................................................................................ 7
1.9. Operational definitions ............................................................................................................ 7
CHAPTER TWO ................................................................................................................................... 8
2. LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................... 8
2.1. Theoretical Review ..................................................................................................................... 8
2.1.1. The desert locust .................................................................................................................. 8
2.1.2 Desert locust outbreaks and its impact ................................................................................ 11
2.2. Empirical Literature on desert locust ........................................................................................ 13
2.4. Methodological Framework of the Study ................................................................................. 13
MSC Thesis Page I

CHAPTER THREE ............................................................................................................................. 15
3. MATERIALS AND METHODS .................................................................................................... 15
3.1. Description of the Study Area .................................................................................................. 15
3.1.1. Location ............................................................................................................................. 15
3.1.2. Topography ........................................................................................................................ 16
3.3. Research Methodology ............................................................................................................. 17
3.3.1. Research Design ................................................................................................................. 17
3.3.2. Data Collection and Pre-Processing ...................................................................................... 17
3.3.3. Data sources ....................................................................................................................... 17
3.3.3.1. Primary data .................................................................................................................... 17
a) Field observation .................................................................................................................. 17
3.3.3.2. Secondary sources ........................................................................................................... 18
3.3.3. Software and Materials ...................................................................................................... 20
3.4. Data Analysis Methods ............................................................................................................. 20
3.4.1. Procedure ........................................................................................................................... 20
3.4.2. MCA criteria Determination .............................................................................................. 20
3.4.3. Thematic Map Preparation ................................................................................................. 21
3.4.3. Model Establishment and predict Potential Desert Locust Habitat ................................... 22
3.4.2. Analysis of interviews ........................................................................................................ 22
CHAPTER FOUR ............................................................................................................................... 24
4. Results and Discussion............................................................................................................. 24
4.1. The Existing Environmental and Climatic factors that initiate desert locust ........................ 24
4.1.1. Environmental factors ........................................................................................................ 24
4.2. The impact of desert outbreaks on crop production .............................................................. 34
4.3. Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 36
CHAPTER FIVE ................................................................................................................................. 38
5. Conclusion and recommendation ............................................................................................. 38

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5.2. Recommendation .................................................................................................................. 41
Reference ............................................................................................................................................. 42
Appendixes................................................................................................................................... 48
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Environmental variables and data that were used in this study and their data sources.
............................................................................................................................................................. 19
Table 3: Soil texture ............................................................................................................................ 24
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 Methodological framework of the study ............................................................................... 14
Figure 2: Location map of the study area ............................................................................................ 15
Figure 3: Topographic map of the study area...................................................................................... 16
Figure 6: Methodological Frame Work of the Study .......................................................................... 23
Figure 7: Soil Texture Map of Amhara Region .................................................................................. 25
Figure 8: Soil Moisture Map of October and November 2020 ........................................................... 26
Figure 9: Soil Moisture Map of March and April 2020 ...................................................................... 27
Figure 10: Soil moisture Difference map between two seasons ......................................................... 28
Figure 11: Soil Temperature map of the study area in 2020 ............................................................... 29
Figure 12: Precipitation map of Amhara Region in 2020 ................................................................... 30
Figure 13: Temperature map of Amhara Region in 2020 ................................................................... 31
Figure 14: Vegetation cover map of Amhara Region in 2020/NDVI/ ................................................ 32
Figure 15: Desert Outbreak map of Amhara Region in 2020/2021 .................................................... 33
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
DEM Digital Elevation Model

DLIS Desert Locust Information system
ERDAS Earth Resource Data Analysis System
FAO Food and Agricultural Organization
GCP Ground Control Point
GIS Geographic Information System
GPS Global Position System
SWARMS Schistocerca WArning Management System
RAMSES (Recognition and Monitoring System of the Environment of
(Schistocerca
KM kilo Meter
Schistocerca)
15
M Meter
WArning
m.a.s.l mater above sea level
MoA
Management Ministry of Agriculture
MODIS Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectra-radiometer
System)
SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
USGS United State Geological Surveying
UTM Universal Transvers Mercator
WGS World Geodetic system
WOA Weighted Overlay Analysis

HWSD Harmonized world soil database
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Abstract
Desert Locusts are a kind of primary pests that cause severe damage to the agriculture in Ethiopia, in
Eastern and northeaster zones of Amhara Region in particular. Early forecasting probable sites of
locust outbreaks are very important for crop management and agricultural protection. The purpose
of this study was to produce desert locust outbreaks map and assess the potential impacts of desert
locust outbreak on crop production in the study area. Therefore, high-risk areas were identified in the
study area, and the possible migration patterns of desert locusts were analyzed. To achieve this goal,
the study employed remote-sensing images from multiple sources was used to establish a prediction
model for the potential distribution range of desert locusts. Six variables have been used to produce
the model of desert locust distribution mapping such as soil temperature, moisture Precipitation, soil,
Soil type, Surface temperature, and land cover (NDVI) for the year 2020. Factors including
Precipitation, soil moisture, Soil type, Surface temperature, soil temperature, and land cover as well
as soil bottom temperature climatology were used in this study. The results showed that the desert
locusts were mainly distributed in the north eastern and south eastern part of north Amhara Region,
which was highly consistent with the actual locust distribution. Hence, this model was able to predict
the probable sites of locust outbreak in the study area, which would provide valuable information to
locust control and prevention authorities. The study was also try to assess the potential impacts of
desert locust on crop production. Thus, interviews were held and the final result revealed that desert
locust outbreaks would have greatest impact on the crop production through damaging food crop that
could led famine to the population.
Keywords: Desert Locust; outbreaks; Geographic information system (GlS), forecast; modeling,
impact and crop production
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CHAPTER ONE
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background of the Study
Desert locusts (Schistocerca gregaria, Forskl) are known to be one of the dreaded insects since time
immemorial for agricultural production. More than 60 countries are affected at varying degrees during
plague development caused by several consecutive generation of successful breeding triggered by a
favorable sequence of heavy and widespread rainfall (Oikonomopoulos, 2020).
Normally in solitary phase density remains low and poses no economic threat but under favorable bio-
climatic condition population increases very fast over space and time and forms gregarious swarms
which can devastate agricultural lands. It is during this period that locusts can cause enormous damage
to standing crops even several hundred kilometers away from their origin (Harmsen, 2003).
However, early detection of locust growth and breeding sites are two key issues for efficient
surveillance and control of desert locusts (DL). Locating high frequency breeding areas over temporal
and spatial scale warrants analysis of large number of biophysical and bio-climatic variables in relation
to locust physiology. Nevertheless the most difficult part of forecasting is migration of adult winged
locusts, which is influenced by large number of weather parameters at synoptic scale. To manage the
locust devastation and its timely warning there is a need for structured geospatial database in GIS
environment and interfacing with other analytical and modeling tools to form sophisticated spatial
Decision Support System (Lecoq, 2020)
Desert locusts reproduce rapidly, migrate very quickly, consume enormous amounts of plant matter,
and cause destruction in agricultural areas. They are a serious threat to food security in some countries
in Africa and Asia and can even cause socioeconomic problems. In normal years, desert locusts usually
live in remote deserts located from North Africa to Southwest Asia. However, changes in ecological
conditions, such as the emergence of lush vegetation due to abnormal rainfall, can cause a rapid
increase in the number of desert locusts (Gmbh, 1994).
Apart from the crops, it is also the sparse vegetation that suffered the attacks of faunivorous insects
affecting its productivity. The sparse vegetation in these semi-arid environments is one of the planet’s
carbon sinks which serve as important determinants for the inter-annual variability of the global carbon
uptake according to recent studies. At the same time, the fact that extensive outbreaks can overwhelm
for long time periods large areas of these ecosystems problematizes the extent of insect disturbances’
influential role in carbon dynamics. This stems from the locust’s ability to affect negatively the carbon
MSC Thesis Page 1
dioxide uptake by destroying the foliage and degrading vegetation’s biomass productivity during the
growing season when the majority of carbon accumulation takes place (Oikonomopoulos, 2020).
Having an overview of the damage is a challenging task and difficult to achieve by using only
conventional field observation means. GIS and remote sensing is the only feasible tool for large scale
environmental monitoring since it provides spatially explicit observations collected over large areas
at various levels of resolution. Regarding the desert locust, different methodological approaches have
been used, focusing mainly on the insect’s habitat characteristics and the landscape’s structure but not
for assessing an upsurge’s extent by detecting the damage caused on vegetation. Furthermore,
developing methods for outbreak detection through remotely sensed vegetation characteristics could
lead to the quantification of the negative impact which they cause on primary productivity, enabling a
deeper understanding of the influences that insect disturbances have on the carbon cycle (EKlundh,
2011).Satellite-based remote sensing technology can visualize the large area, provides dynamic, real-
time, and periodic observations, and makes it possible and convenient to locust habitat monitoring.
Combining the availability of remote sensing data and the physiological mechanism of locust
oviposition and growth, it is believed that the current research about locust habitat monitoring based
on remote sensing is mainly carried out from vegetation, soil, and climate, mainly including habitat
factors such as vegetation coverage, land cover class, soil moisture, soil salinity, temperature and so
on (Waldner et al, 2015).
In order to minimize the frequency of desert locust plagues and their associated food losses, locust-
affected countries and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN) have
adopted a preventive control strategy that relies on early warning and early reaction. The FAO Desert
Locust Information Service (FAO DLIS) operates an early warning system that monitors weather,
ecological conditions, and locust infestations in the potentially affected area on a daily basis. Increased
populations of desert locusts can damage subsistence crops, pastures, irrigated agricultural areas, and
export cash crops, threatening the food security and economic prosperity of affected countries and
regions. One tone of locusts, a very small part of the average swarm, can consume as much food in
one day as 2,500 people. In most of the affected region, farming systems are already naturally
vulnerable and cannot sustain additional stress or disruption posed by desert locust infestations. This
fragility could be exacerbated if temperatures become warmer and rainfall decreases in potentially
affected areas (FAO, 219).
One quarter of the world’s population lives in an at-risk region and during a locust plague, nearly one
third of the world’s inhabitants can be affected by the growth and movement of locust swarms.
Weather is a key factor that influences desert locust numbers, population dynamics, and habitat-wide
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distribution. Rainfall is essential to desert locust populations because it creates the moist soil that
females need to lay their eggs while also allowing for green vegetation growth, which nourishes and
shelters locusts. Adult locusts migrate with the wind as passive fliers up to about 1,800 meters above
the ground, moving downwind at roughly the wind speed. Solitary adults fly at night while swarms
migrate during the day. Downwind displacement of up to about 200 km per day tends to carry locusts
into seasonal rainfall areas (FAO, 2020).
Desert locusts (DL) are a serious problem during August to October in the deserts and semi-deserts of
FDR Ethiopia and causing extensive crop damage. There is no institutional and functional mechanism
to forecast the habitat of locusts and most of the area remains unnoticed after laying eggs (MOA,
2020).
Locating high frequency breeding areas over temporal and spatial scale warrants analysis of large
number of biophysical and bio-climatic variables in relation to locust physiology. Nevertheless the
most difficult part of forecasting is migration of adult winged locusts, which is influenced by large
number of weather parameters at synoptic scale. To manage the locust devastation and its timely
warning there is a need for structured geospatial database in GIS environment and interfacing with
other analytical and modeling tools to form sophisticated spatial Decision Support System (Healy et
al., 1996).
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1.2. Statement of the Problem

Since January 2020, swarms of desert locusts have damaged over 200.000 hectares of cropland in
Ethiopia. These swarms put high pressure on the access to food in different regions of Ethiopia. In
April the FAO calculated that a million of people have been affected and require emergency food
assistance. Desert Locusts are spreading to new areas of Ethiopia in vast numbers. According to
Government data provided on 07 January 2020, Desert Locusts has have invested more than 2 350
km2 of land across the Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Tigray, and Southern Nations, Nationalities,
and Peoples' (SNNP) regional states, as well as in Dire Dawa city. The insects have spread to around
125 Woredas (districts) – up from 56 in October 2019, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO) Representative in Ethiopia. According to the FAO, the current locust swarms
in Ethiopia are the most severe in over 25 years. Specifically, East Amahara Worababu, Hasbro and
Kobo districts. However, controlling and predicting desert locust outbreaks is difficult in these affected
areas.
Traditional, ground survey methods are inefficient to adequately address the large spatial scale of the
locust problem. Remote Sensing and the associated geospatial technologies can provide timely data to
assess the risk of impending locust outbreaks. This information could be used for targeted preventive
management actions in the locust breeding areas. It is very important to acquire timely information
on the spatial distribution of locust populations in order to bring a locust outbreak under control
quickly. It is worth noting that most previous studies have monitored and analyzed desert locusts over
small areas and using traditional methods but have not conducted research on the overall movement
trends of desert locusts over a large area. Previously conducted researches regarding to predicting and
modelling desert locust distribution were limited towards the application GIS and RS such as
This motivated the researcher to conduct this research. Despite the efforts of national, regional and
international organizations to prevent outbreaks, occurrences of upsurges and plagues are still
prevalent. So far, the outbreak of desert locust populations cannot reliably be predicted. The only
means of monitoring desert locust population build up in the vast recession habitat is ground survey.
Ground survey is guided by the recent occurrences of rainfall or green vegetation. However, ground
survey teams have insufficient time to assess all green habitats. Therefore, desert locust outbreaks
often go undetected. An improvement in the current ground survey operations of desert locust would
reduce the threat of the desert locust to crops and pastures.
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Accordingly, this study would investigate main factors distribution and movement of desert locusts
and produce desert locust outbreaks map and assess the potential impacts of desert locust outbreak in
the study area using integrated GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques.
1.3. Objectives of the study

1.3.1. General objectives
To produce desert locust outbreaks map and assess the potential impacts of desert locust outbreak on
crop production in the study area
1.3.2. Specific objectives

 To assess most environmental and climatic factors that initiate desert locust distribution in the
study areas.
 To prepare model for the potential desert locust distribution in the study areas; and
 To produce Desert locust outbreak map of the study area
 To evaluate the existing impacts of desert locust outbreak on crop production in the study area
1.4. Research questions

In spite of the effort of the national and the international body, Desert Locust outbreaks, upsurge and
plagues are still prevalent. Regular surveys and monitoring operations might not be able to detect all
breeding sites; this gap could be narrowed by additional research and introduction of efficient systems
for monitoring. This study intends to investigate the hypothesis and answer the following questions:
 How are Vegetation status (NDVI), Precipitation, soil moisture, Soil type, Surface temperature,
Pressure, Winds, and land cover as well as soil bottom temperature initiate the Desert Locust
outbreaks?
 How much GIS and remote sensing tools contribute to the minimization of Desert Locust outbreak
risks.
 How can efficient forecasting for early locusts detection and prevention of Desert locust
development be built?
 What are the potential impacts of desert locust on crop production in outbreak areas?
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1.5. Significance of the study

Methodological significance: The findings of this study would address scientific know how and skills
to aware researchers, GIS and Remote sensing experts the application of GIS and remote sensing
technologies are important for Desert Locust modeling, mapping and monitoring using desert locust
modeling through climate variables, environmental variables and vegetation status. And this study
would also provide information for those interested researchers to conduct further study on predicting
and evaluating desert locust breeding and outbreak areas of regional and national wide.
Policy implications: Economically Different individuals and organizations are expected to benefit
from the research. Among these Communities of the study area in general and crop growing farmers
particular, Zones Agricultural Departments, the woreda agricultural office, Amhara Region
Agricultural bureau, National Disaster Risk management commission and FAO etc. would benefit
from the result. The findings of the study would be helpful to provide the required map of Desert
Locust outbreak areas and its impacts in the study area. And finally,
1.6. Scope of the Study

In real world, it is too difficult to cover all the existing problems and different parts of the world at
once in research study. This tells us about the researcher was selective in identifying problems and the
area that would have to be covered in the study. For this reason, GIS and Remote Sensing modeling
techniques in mapping and its impact was identified as the research focusing part and from different
zones of Amhara Region, taken as the study area.
1.7. Organization of the Paper

This study will have the following parts. Part one will cover introduction of the study which further
includes background of the study, statement of the problem, objectives of the study, research
questions, significance of the study and scope of the study. Part two will cover related literatures which
are important in relating previously conducted studies on desert locust modeling of spatial analysis.
Part three will give an emphasis on the methodology which includes description of study area.
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1.8. Limitation
The major limitation of this study was the inability to obtain exact current statistical and historical data
of the desert locust in study area. This could affect the result of the study to be more reliable. Absence
of prior researches related to desert locust and absence of well-known locust models to predict the
desert locust suitable habitat areas, thus it could be challenging problem for the researcher to conduct
this research.
Another limitation was also lack of respondent’s interest to participate actively, lack of adequate
finance, budget, time and the last limitation will be covid 19. It would be one of the most obstacles to
collect data especially using interview and FGDs. Therefore, the researcher faced problems to gather
sufficient data as expected.
The other limitation of the study was that the model for desert locust outbreaks was used only six
variables include soil temperature, soil texture, soil moisture, surface temperature, precipitation and
NDVI. Other environmental variables such as wind speed, wind direction and other characteristics of
soil were not applied to predict the model. If other variables had used, it would have been very reliable
research.
1.9. Operational definitions

Desert locust: The desert locust is a grasshopper that spends most of its existence as isolated, solitary,
individuals in remote desert settings in parts of the Africa continent, the Arabian Peninsula, and South
Asia.
Desert locust outbreaks: desert locust disaster and hazard infestations
Impacts: the socio-economic and ecological effects that would be resulted due desert locust outbreaks
Locust density: the number of locust population per hectare
Mapping desert Locust outbreaks. A map of the desert Locust outbreaks, based on potential
outbreak modeling parameters of their border.
Modeling desert Locust: predicting potential desert locust outbreak areas using different criteria’s
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CHAPTER TWO
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Theoretical Review
2.1.1. The desert locust
The desert locust (Schistocerca Gregaria, Forskål) is considered to be among the insect species with
the greatest impact on the primary productivity of vegetation. Its frequent outbreaks could escalate to
upsurges or plagues that invade large areas. The desert locust is a short-horned grasshopper of the
insect order Orthopteran. It is a defoliator that feeds on the leaves of any kind of vegetation, and
considered one of the most dangerous migratory insects in the world due to its ability to cross
continents and seas and destroy also the crops (Cressman, 2016).
This is the result of a complicated lifestyle strategy related to food availability and environmental
conditions of its habitat. Its major characteristic is that it exhibits a phase polytheism in which
behavioral, physiological and morphological traits change, due to variations in the local population
density (Uvarov, 1996). Specifically, (Cressman, 2016)mentions that “it has the ability to change its
behavior and physiology, in particular its appearance, in response to environmental conditions, and
transform itself from a harmless solitaries individual to part of a collective mass of insects that form a
cohesive swarm” (p.87). This means that where low population density conditions apply, the
individuals behave solitariously, tending to avoid each other. In cases where the available food is
provided in patches and insects attracted to these localized green areas form dense populations, they
start to behave as a unit and after some time they change also their morphology. This phenomenon of
behavioral and morphological change is described by the term grangerization (Despland et al., 2004).
Apart from the behavioral phases, desert locust as a grasshopper passes through various development
phases during its life cycle before it becomes fully mature. After the egg hatching, six larvae or hopper
levels follow before fledging, after which the insect is considered as an adult , (Symmons and
Cressman, 20001). However adults, the insects in this level are not biologically fully mature since it
takes some time until they become able to fly and after that some more time in order to be
reproductively mature.
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2.1.2. Climate suitability for Locust Migration/Flight
Migration and long march of adult locusts is a function of temperature, saturation deficit, wind velocity
and direction, cloudiness and the upper atmospheric condition i.e. vertical distribution of atmospheric
water vapor and mixing zones of upper atmosphere especially in the convergence zones. There is a
minimum threshold temperature for flight muscle activation (greater than 17oC), on the other hand
above 42 oc thermal inactivation of muscle take place and flight is rare. Most optimum temperature is
nearer to 35 oc.
Similar to air temperature, humidity also play role in maintaining water balance during flight.
Threshold wind velocity required for flight of DL is 13 m/s as the swarms prefer to move passively
downwind with +/-10 degree deviation along its direction. Below the threshold wing movement is
limited to hopping and saltation. In a cloudy day however, locusts do not fly. All the above constraints
were used in programming logic to evaluate the chances of flight (Li, 2020).
The favorable climate (i.e. high temperatures and heavy rainfall) is crucial for migration and
spread of desert locust. Temperature mainly associated with locust mobility and speed as well as the
impact on locust lifecycle. For instance, increasing average temperature may shorten the incubation
and breeding period that resulting in extra generation in a year (Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO, 2016).
Studies have shown that desert locust has the ability to change its behavior, ecology, and physiology
in response to the changes in climatic conditions. In particular, within a few weeks, swarming adults
mature, mate, and begin to oviposit in soils at 10–15 cm below ground in suitable environments in the
invaded zones. Suitability for oviposition and subsequent breeding is influenced by factors such as
soil type, sand content, soil moisture, surface air temperature, rainfall, and prevalence of vegetation
(FAO, 1999).
In the year 2020, the spread of locust swarms follows atypical pattern, i.e. spread through internal
breeding as well as entry of swarms from the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.
The time needed for the desert locust to transition from one stage to the other is highly dependent on
the weather patterns. Both the hopper bands and adult swarms can cause significant damage to the
vegetation and crops in the invaded zones. Therefore, to prevent catastrophic swarms from maturing
hoppers, it is critical to strengthen ground and aerial surveillance efforts to identify potential breeding
sites for timely and effective management of hopper bands.
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However, effective ground and aerial surveillance are constrained by various factors including
extensive area of invasion (e.g., 107,000 km2 in Kenya), inaccessibility of invasion zones due to poor
infrastructure, limited resources, lack of human capacity for monitoring and control, and difficulties
in predicting suitable areas for breeding and outbreaks. Previous desert locust outbreaks in the Horn
of Africa were observed in 1996–1998, and it affected countries along the Red Sea, with infestations
primarily concentrated in Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, in Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Northern
Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.
2.2. GIS and Remote sensing application Desert Locust monitoring
To manage the locust devastation and its timely warning there is a need for structured geospatial
database in GIS environment and interfacing with other analytical and modeling tools to form
sophisticated spatial Decision Support System (Healy et al., 1996).
A great amount has been done in the field of geographic information systems (GIS). It is now possible
to integrate into a computer system the various data on locusts and their environment, particularly
rains. These data can be better used and interpreted for more effective forecasting. GIS already exists
for the Desert Locust. There are two versions; the more sophisticated one, developed on a workstation,
is managed by the FAO in Rome and covers the entire breeding area of the Desert Locust [SWARMS,
Schistocerca Warning Management System] (Cressman, 1997).
A geographic information system is being developed for the Malagasy Migratory Locust. Along with
a forecasting model of risk situations, this should be a real decision-support tool to organize monitoring
and treatment operations. Space remote sensing is also a technology that has brought about substantial
advances. For the Desert Locust, satellite data SPOT VEGETATION,METEOSAT and NOAA
satellites are used to better localize zones of rain and developing vegetation which may favor locust
breeding, thus guiding the ground survey teams (Cherlet, 1997).
Remotely sensed data are used for monitoring habitats of certain species such as the Desert, Migratory
and Australian Plague locusts. However, the vast potential of this technology remains untapped for
other locusts. To assess locust risks and develop preventive measures data on land cover habitat
condition are required. Vegetation represents the essential component of the locust habitat, providing
the insects with nutrition and shelter. Remote sensing technology can provide necessary data for
assessing locust outbreak threats and post-outbreak damage. Remote sensing technology is a means to
rapidly collect information on vegetation and earth surface conditions for relatively large geographic
areas. These data are routinely used for assessing the status of land and natural resources or for
assessing the magnitude of events such as wildfires and hurricanes (Darmawan, 2007).
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2.4. Desert locust outbreaks in Ethiopia
Since January 2020, swarms of desert locusts have damaged over 200.000 hectares of cropland in
Ethiopia. These swarms put high pressure on the access to food in different regions of Ethiopia. In
April the FAO calculated that a million of people have been affected and require emergency food
assistance. Desert Locusts are spreading to new areas of Ethiopia in vast numbers. According to
Government data provided on 07 January 2020, Desert Locusts has have invested more than 2 350
km2 of land across the Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Tigray, and Southern Nations, Nationalities,
and Peoples' (SNNP) regional states, as well as in Dire Dawa city. The insects have spread to around
125 Woredas (districts) – up from 56 in October 2019. "The invasion could lead to a considerable drop
in agricultural production, livestock feed and forest cover, compromising livelihoods and food security
in Ethiopia and neighboring countries," warned Fatouma Seid, the Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations (FAO) Representative in Ethiopia. According to the FAO, the current locust
swarms in Ethiopia are the most severe in over 25 years. Specifically, East Amahara Worababu, Habru
and Kobo districts.
2.1.2 Desert locust outbreaks and its impact

Locust occurrence regions a locust occurrence region (i.e., locust zone) can be categorized into three
types according to the degree and frequency of occurrence: locust breeding region, accidental
occurrence zone, and dispersal zone. A locust breeding region with optimum environmental conditions
for locust breeding is also known as a perennial occurrence area. This area regularly maintains high
locust population density; locusts spread out from here in massive occurrences. An accidental
occurrence zone is a normal region with low locust activity and slight changes in annual locust density
numbers according to weather conditions. Massive occurrence of locusts in this area is far less frequent
than that in a locust breeding region, unless weather conditions are suitable. Normally, a locust
dispersal zone with a high locust death rate is unsuitable for locust breeding (Kerall &Herok ,1997).
However, this zone temporarily becomes a locust occurrence zone if conditions are suitable for the
locusts, such as in cases of serious drought and floods. The geographic coordinates of locust zone
boundaries are obtained by using the collecting system with the PDA software running on the PDA.
The locust zone is circled by locusts’ zone boundaries. The accidental occurrence and dispersal zones
are determined by analyzing natural environmental conditions in the locust zone and the locust species.
In general, the buffer radius from a locust breeding region to the outer boundary of the accidental
occurrence zone is 3 km, and that from the accidental occurrence zone to the outer boundary of the
diffusion area is 7 km (Kerall &Herok ,1997).
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Throughout history, humanity has always been affected by locust plagues, and these plagues have
always been particularly devastating for Africa. During the past centuries, this remained a recurrent
theme for travelers, missionaries and naturalists, who all bore witness to the severity of the problem
and its effect on food supplies in Africa. Numerous stories, data, and evidence attest to the social
and economic importance of locusts and grasshoppers in Africa during the past centuries as well as
during recent years. Locusts are capable of causing total crop loss within hours at a local level (FAO,
1994b,Steedman,1990). However, this information on damage was recently considered too outdated
or too imprecise, particularly when used for cost-benefit analyses and the economic importance of
locusts has been questioned. Some now consider that locusts and grasshoppers are relatively minor
pests, even during upsurges, in terms of overall crop losses, although localized damage may be
devastating for short periods.
It is extremely difficult to precisely ascertain crop losses by locusts, although some methods are
available. The cash value of the crops must be taken into account, but also the crops’ social value in
subsistence agrarian societies. Classic cost-profit analyses are inaccurate in the case of migratory
insects, since control operations can be funded by certain regions to benefit very remote regions. It is
also necessary to estimate not only the real damage, but also the potential damage avoided by control
measures. Considering the difficulties, some believe that “accurate estimates of the benefits of the
control are unlikely to be possible in Africa” (Lomer et al.,2001).
Locust outbreaks and subsequent destruction of vegetation result in ecological, environmental and
economic problems. Locust swarms can devour green vegetation, including agricultural crops, across
large geographic areas thereby upsetting the ecological processes (e.g. carbon and water cycles) of
region or any landscape. Rapid loss in vegetation cover can result in soil erosion and increased run
off. Crop damages could result in catastrophic losses to farmers, and this problem could be acute for
small, subsistence farmers throughout the world and especially for those in developing countries. DL
invasions normally cause great loss to the crops and pastures in a number of affected countries. They
feed on a very wide range of plants, and there are four factors, which mainly contribute to its status as
a major pest: the food intake per individual, the range of food plant and parts eaten, the frequency of
occurrence of high-density population and the mobility of the population (Suleiman 2005).
Abdalla, (2004) mentioned that Desert Locust are attracted to habitats of high vegetation density and
compact structure, because they probably need to protect themselves against unfavorable weather
conditions and against the attack of the natural enemies, in addition to their need for food. Locust are
able to locate areas of vegetation on which they land, even where these occur only as a few isolated
patches, and yet how they do this is still not known. In habitats of evenly distributed vegetation which
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consist of small, low plants with small areas or bare ground in between, hoppers move over, in and
out of the vegetation.
2.2. Empirical Literature on desert locust
2.2.1. Modelling Desert Locust Migration
Modelling is commonly employed to improve understanding of population dynamics. The occurrence

of non-migratory insect pests can usually be predicted from their phenology, historical statistics,
simple or multiple statistical regressions of biotic and abiotic factors, or accurate predictive models
based on life tables. With migratory insect pests that have a high mobility to colonize or escape
changing habitats on a large scale, occurrence is unlikely to be predicted accurately without
considering population distributions and structures (Hamilton et al. 1994; Drake 1998). Numerical
models have been developed for quantitative forecasting of population dynamics and distributions
over a range of temporal and spatial scales (Rochester et al. 1996). For migratory insect.
2.4. Methodological Framework of the Study

Different studies have been undertaken in how to apply GIS based models in selecting Desert Locust
outbreak site location. Those studies tried to identify factors and constraints that hinder suitable sites
for desert locust outbreaks. In our country, updating the workflow of software is still lagging behind
when compared with other countries experience.
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Figure 1 Methodological framework of the study
From the above concepts:

Independent Variables are: topographic data, Remote sensed data and climate data.
Dependent variable is: Desert Locust outbreaks. The characteristics and nature of the independent
variables determines the characteristic of dependent variable. In short, site selection for Desert Locust
outbreak depends on the above listed independent variable selection mechanisms.
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CHAPTER THREE
3. MATERIALS AND METHODS
3.1. Description of the Study Area

3.1.1. Location
The study area is located in Eastern Zones such as North Wollo, South Wollo,Wagehimra,Oromo
special zone and North Shewa of Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia and is summer breeding zones
of the Desert Locust It includes mountainous uplands where plant growth is concentrated in channels
and river- beds, and moisture plains where vegetation develops in alluvial plains irrigated by drainage
from the hills and it also offers preferable conditions for the desert locusts such as irregular rainfall,
high temperatures, and bare soil with habitats of mosaic vegetation. The study area contains different
climatic zones, including Bereha, Kolla, Woina Dega, Dega and Wurch climate zones as defined in
the updated Ethiopian traditional climatic classification. These areas are favorable breeding grounds
for desert locusts.
Figure 2: Location map of the study area
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3.1.2. Topography
The study area characterized by its extremely undulating topographic landscape. In the study area
elevation varies from 486 m to 4620m above mean sea level. Although the study area is placed in the
northwestern lowlands, northern central highlands of Ethiopia, fortunately, it is relatively
characterized by ups and down terrain with high soil eroding as compared with the lowland area. In
general, the study area is represented by different terrain classes such as flat 35%, mountainous 50%,
rolling 10% and valley 5%.
Figure 3: Topographic map of the study area
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3.3. Research Methodology

3.3.1. Research Design
This research would use both quantitative and qualitative research design. The use of mixed method
designs provide the opportunity to avoid deficiencies and weakness that come from using a single
method.
3.3.2. Data Collection and Pre-Processing

Based on the biological characteristics of desert locusts, this study will select six environmental
variables, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil temperature, soil
texture, soil moisture Rainfall (RF), Land Surface Temperature (LST) to produce desert locust
outbreak map and establish a model of the potential geographic distribution of the desert locust
outbreaks.
3.3.3. Data sources

There are two types of data that were collected and utilized in this study. Both primary and secondary
data used for estimating the Desert Locust distribution area mapping and its potential impacts on crop
production of the study area, which were obtained from field survey, remote sensed data and concerned
institutions. The data used include:
3.3.3.1. Primary data
a) Field observation
The researcher collect field observation data on the desert locust habitat using both ground observation
and Google Earth. Surveys was created according to information about the current situation of the
locust, ecological conditions in the field and the risk that locust population may develop, which
required additional monitoring and may be controlled (Cressman, 2002). Normally, surveys was
conducted in areas where locusts mostly like to be present, and the collected data includes information
about locust situations and habitat conditions in the field. From all the records that are received in the
historical data, only the required information was used in the study such as the coordinates of the
survey observation point and locust information.
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b) Key informants Interviews

In This research First-hand information were gathered about the potential impact of desert locust
outbreaks on crop production in study area through semi structured interviews. The researcher also
raised questions for the interviewers and opinions about the issue. Besides, those agricultural expert
and local government who lived on the area of study have given their opinions; this was very useful
to gathered qualitative data that usually involves unwritten data that has written to textual form as well
as written notes and documents of various sorts.
To get more accurate and reliable response, the interviewer was explained and clarifies both the
purpose of the research and individual questions. Before the actual data collection started, the
instruments were given to colleagues to get valuable comments and criticisms on the strengths and
weaknesses of the items.
Key informant interviews are qualitative in-depth interviews with people who know what is going on
in the community. The purpose of key informant interviews is to collect information from a wide range
of people including community leaders, professionals, or residents who have firsthand knowledge
about the community. These community experts, with their particular knowledge and understanding,
can provide insight on the nature of problems and give recommendations for solutions (kotri, 2007)
3.3.3.2. Secondary sources

a) Documents analysis of Locust Historical Data
The Desert Locust historical data were used in the study and also collected by the researcher from
agriculture Bureau of Amhara Region and MoA of FDRE both fed and they refer back to years 2019,
and 2020.
b) Remotely Sensed Data
Although it is not possible to detect locust populations by satellites, remote sensing imagery is used to
help estimate rainfall and where ecological conditions may be favorable in locust-affected countries.
Satellite imagery: for this research Landsat MODIS 13A satellite image were used to extracted
vegetation greenness conditions (NDVI) and it obtained from United States Geological Survey
(USGS). The acquisition date were July 2019- January/2020, this remotely
Soil data: soil moisture, Soil type, provided by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 2009.
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Digital Elevation Model (DEM): 90m resolution data, has received from Shutler Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM). Digital elevation model was used to generate elevation and slope data of the study
area.
c) Climate data
Climatic data (rainfall and temperature), for this research climate data were collected from Regional
Metrology Agency. Mean annual rainfall and temperature of 2019 and 2020 were used. Soil data for
this research. Types of data that were used and their sources are described in Table 2 below
Table 1 Environmental variables and data that were used in this study and their data sources.
Variables Data Source/Producer Unit Period

1 NDVI https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/ 2020
3 Soil Data http://FAO.org/UN kg/m2 2020
4 RF(mean annual) National Metrology Agency of mm 2020
Ethiopia (2020).
5 Temperature (mean National Metrology Agency of ◦C 2020
annual) Ethiopia
6 Elevation http://www.worldclim.org/ m 2020
7 Ground Control Points Field Survey and Google Earth Pro Point 2020
data
8 Study Area ArcGIS DIVA
boundary
shape file data
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3.3.3. Software and Materials

Different materials were used in this research, among those:-Topographic map, Satellite imagery,
GPS, Burton compass, sample bag, Computer and Digital camera, Printer, scanner and other
stationeries. And also different software (Global mapper v.16, Arc Map 10.3.1, ENVI, ERDAS
IMAGINE 2015) were used in this research.
Table 2 Software and Material Applied in this Study
Software The Purpose why they have been applied
Arc Map 10.7.1 Reclassification of factors, weighted overlays, etc.
ERDAS IMAGINE 2015 land cover classification and for vegetation cover
extraction(NDVI)
GPS For collection of ground control points
3.4. Data Analysis Methods
3.4.1. Procedure
The data were further processed before being used in the analysis following these steps: (1) the annual
average values of the NDVI, Temperature, Humidity and Soil PH were calculated on a monthly basis;
(2) Elevation and slope were generated from DEM data (3) the UTM System1984 benchmark was
used to project all geographic data into a projection coordinate system.
3.4.2. MCA criteria Determination

MCA method is a linear function that is used to standardize the quantitative scores and the overall
score is calculated as the weighted average of the standardized scores. That is to say, MCA is a result
comprehensively generated from a number of weighed criteria. Therefore, the principal for building
desert locust outbreak models is to decide the main factors influencing the breeding and growth of
desert locust. Desert Locust is a kind of long-term natural species formed under certain circumstances.
Its growth and reproduction has a close relationship with the surrounding ecological environment
which can be divided into two groups.
One is the necessary habitats for desert locust survival, including climate, foods and soil types. The
other is influential conditions such as some kinds of natural enemies. Though many factors have to be
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considered for predicting desert locust outbreak, four essential criteria are defined for participating in
the analysis. Climate data including temperature, rainfall, humidity, windy, and atmospheric pressure
is deeply influencing the growth of locusts. Therefore, the monthly average temperature and Rainfall
from June to January observed from worldclimate.com weather stations in Ahmhara region were
selected to be one criterion. Firstly, a point shape file in ArcGIS was created according to all the
observation data from weather stations.
The NDVI is one of the most well-known and commonly used indexes to detect and monitor the
vegetation presence through multispectral remote sensing data. According to Deng's studies (1992),
the locust density is the highest when NDVI ranges from 0.2 to 0.5. This is because locust prefer
staying or living in the areas that cover their favorite vegetation. It would be also another one of criteria
for the model. More than 98% insects are deeply influenced by soil properties, especially at the egg
laying and hatching stages. Many researchers have studied the relationship of soil properties with the
spatial distribution of locusts. For example, Mukerji and Gage(1996) have examined quantitatively
the effects of soil moisture on desert locust distribution carried out similar studies, but he pointed the
most important soil properties for locust distribution were moisture content, salinity, texture and soil
PH value.
He found the fecundity and hatchability of locust had a negative relationship with the soil PH value
and salinity. The most suitable soil PH value ranges from 7.5 to 8.4, which would be one criterion in
this study.
3.4.3. Thematic Map Preparation

Thematic maps are an important source of GIS information. These tools will be tools which used to
communicate geographical concepts in the form of map. The thematic maps such as rainfall,
Temperature, Elevation, Soil texture and soil moisture, soil temperature and NDVI map were prepare
by using digitization, overlay analysis with the appropriate criteria.
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3.4.3. Model Establishment and predict Potential Desert Locust Habitat

A GIS-grid-based locust outbreak model was developed to predict the distribution risk zones of desert
locust in the study area. As each criterion has different unit, in order to maintain the consistency of
criteria, all the criteria needed to be standardized based on scale level shown on Table 2, that is to say,
the real values need to be converted to utility measure values corresponding to the levels in the scale.
To reduce errors caused by the improper selection of predictors, a complete dataset containing all
environmental variables were used for the initial operation. According to the principles of overly
analysis were used in the random points of FAO swarm data in the locust outbreak occurrence area
the logistic regression model was used to predict the probability of desert locust survival (0–100%) in
each grid at a spatial resolution of 0.25◦ in the study area.
To produce a map of the desert locust distribution, the continuous probability values was converted to
binary predictions based on a threshold value. This probability threshold was determined by matching
the model predictions to the extracted distribution of desert locusts according to the maximum training
sensitivity plus specificity criterion. This criterion uses training data to optimize the trade-off between
specificity and sensitivity; it was recognized as one of the most effective threshold selection methods.
Grids with predicted probabilities higher than the threshold value were assigned a value of 1,
representing high to moderate habitat suitability, and were labelled suitable habitats. Grids with
predicted probabilities lower than the threshold value were also assigned a value of 0, representing
low habitat suitability or an unsuitable habitat, and were labelled unsuitable habitats.
3.4.2. Analysis of interviews

Finally, desert locust outbreak area was mapped and the existing impact of desert locust outbreaks on
crop production in the study areas was evaluated using structured interviews analysis. Therefore, the
researcher has been analyzed the interviews in explanatory methods.
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Figure 4: Methodological Frame Work of the Study
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CHAPTER FOUR
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. The Existing Environmental and Climatic factors that initiate desert locust
The study identified the following main environmental and climatic factors that initiate desert locust
outbreak in Amhara region. Accordingly, the variables such as Precipitation, soil moisture, Soil type,
Surface temperature, and land cover as well as soil bottom temperature climatology were used in this
study. Thus the results and the corresponding interpretations are presented in the following section.
4.1.1. Environmental factors

Soil type, soil moisture, and land cover was identified as the major environmental variables in the
study. Accordingly, the following section presents the environmental variables.
a) Soil Texture
The study resampled the soil texture data in to 3km resolution to make the data similar with the soil
moisture data. Accordingly, the result of the Amhara soil data based on texture is presented with the
figure below.
Table 2: Soil texture
Sn Soil Texture Area in Km2 Percent
1 Sandy loam 18.60086 0.012381

2 Loam 265.517 0.176728
3 Sandy Clay Loam 1013.599 0.674651
4 Silty Clay Loam 0.48052 0.00032
5 Clay Loam 24841.28 16.53434
6 Sandy Clay 6.239105 0.004153
7 Silty Clay 0.832592 0.000554
8 Clay 124093.9 82.59687
Desert locust require sandy soils to lay their eggs. The ISRIC soil texture data were at the depth of 15
cm was used in order to evaluate the favorable soil types used for the desert locust outbreak. Based on
prior studies finding suitable soil texture for desert locust breeding sites were soils with the sand and
clay contents.
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The result from the study majority of Amhara region soil texture lays under the clay coverage. From
the entire study area the 82.596% is covered by the clay soil textures. Following to the clay type of
texture the study area is characterized by clay loam soil type which constitutes around 16.5% of the
study area.
Figure 5: Soil Texture Map of Amhara Region
Knowing that the hoppers can move up to several kilometers across the land surface (Ariel and Ayali, 2015),
the ISRIC data were aggregated (nearest neighbor) up to the 3 km scale for this historical analysis, matching
that of the LIS grid (it should be noted, however, that in operational desert locust monitoring, the native
resolution of 250 m will be extremely useful). Accordingly the map above portrays that the eastern marginal
parts of Amhara region is characterized by sandy, sandy clay, sandy clay loam and sandy loam soil texture
types.
In addition to the above since most of the eastern marginal parts of the study area was characterized by sandy
soil substrates it can be concluded that the area is prone to desert locust outbreak. Moreover, the desert locust
map of the FOA also confirmed a consistent result.
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b) Soil Moisture
The study used soil moisture data in order to determine the optimal breeding places in terms of soil
moisture. Accordingly, the soil moisture data from January 2020 to December 2020 was also examined
and the result is presented below. After synthesizing the entire monthly soil moisture dataset the study
analyzed the main breeding seasons of hoppers. According to Lu, et.al. (2016) hoppers tend to breed
from October and November and March and April, thus the study evaluated the soil moisture and the
corresponding difference in the mean values of the two breading periods.
Figure 6: Soil Moisture Map of October and November 2020
The result from the above map clearly revealed that the mean soil moisture, in Amhara region during
October and November months were 0.417452cm3 per cm3 the highest score of the soil moisture data
while 0.101839 cm3 per cm3 was the lowest record of the soil moisture data. The result further revealed
that the mean of the two months record was 0.30613 cm3 per cm3.
Again the second breeding months was also revealed that the mean of the 8 month aggregate of the
soil moisture was also evaluated. Accordingly the result and the corresponding interpretations are
presented below.
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Figure 7: Soil Moisture Map of March and April 2020
The result from the above indicated that the maximum the 8th week average soil moisture data also
indicated that march and April months also characterized by maximum of 0.41042 cm3 per cm3 of soil
moisture while the minimum amount of soil moisture was also recorded 0.15495 cm3 per cm3. From
the above map the mean amount of soil moisture during these 8weeks were 0.2774 cm3 per cm3.
Despite the above small variability of Soil moisture in Amhara region, the breeding periods exhibited
insignificant difference.
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Figure 8: Soil moisture Difference map between two seasons
The difference in the mean maximum and minimum soil moisture in the two breeding between the
two main breeding cycles (October/November and March/April) was were ∼0.13 and 0.11 cm3 per
cm3 respectively , with the later season exhibiting a slightly smaller variance with a mean of 0.0261
and standard deviation of 0.050 cm3 per cm3. The result shows that the difference in soil moisture
between these two breeding cycles can be concluded that there is a similar pattern of soil moisture.
However, the locusts observed between the major breeding cycles (December/January/February),
though representing <15% of the data, showed a distinctly larger range of values (mean = 0.020, range
= 0.019). On average, the areas within the SM threshold constitute 76.1% of the study area.
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c) Soil temperature
The study also analyzed the soil temperature the result and the corresponding interpretations are presented
below.
Figure 9: Soil Temperature map of the study area in 2020
These weather variables are overlaid with coinciding hoppers seen in the Amhara region. The case
studies show the average for soil temperature at the hopper breeding point is a maximum and minimum
of 34.33°C and 30.707oC. The result indicated that the soil bottom temperature of the main breeding
site had also an average value of 32.33o C. This shows that desert locust breeding area requires an
average temperature of approximately 32o C.
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d) Precipitation
Precipitation needs to be considered based on the fact that hoppers need vegetation to eat in order to develop.
The higher the precipitation amounts, the greater chance of vegetation growth which can translate to a higher
NDVI value. According to literature, hoppers indirectly require rainy conditions since they need edible
vegetation in order to survive. As a result of this the study examined the precipitation values and the
association with locust breeding sites. Accordingly, the result is presented below.
Figure 10: Precipitation map of Amhara Region in 2020
The result of the study revealed that the study area is characterized by a maximum of 2614mm and a minimum
of 664mm rain fall during 2020. The result of the study further revealed that lower amount of rainfall was
observed in the locust breeding site with a higher amount of 1633mm and minimum amount of 965mm in pixel
values of locust breeding sites.
e) Temperature
Comparing the literature values to our observed characteristics, surface temperature needs to be
considered since the warmer the temperature, the faster hoppers will mature and become adults which
can be seen in the map below.
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Figure 11: Temperature map of Amhara Region in 2020
The map above clearly revealed that temperature around the eastern margins of the Amhara region is
found high. The result revealed that higher amount of temperature in Amhara region 28.88o C on the
other hand the minimum amount of temperature in the study area was found 19.218o C. However,
when the data was compared with the FAO locust breeding location, the result revealed that the
maximum and minimum amount of temperature was 29.11mm and 25.66o C. The result showed us
that there is a higher amount of temperature in the locust breeding sites as indicated by the FAO data,
2020.
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f) Vegetation cover
Lastly, NDVI also need to be considered based on the fact that hoppers need vegetation to eat in order
to develop. The higher the precipitation amounts, the greater chance of vegetation growth which can
translate to a higher NDVI value. According to literature, hoppers indirectly require rainy conditions
since they need edible vegetation in order to survive. Accordingly, the study evaluated the Vegetation
health and the result is presented below.
Figure 12: Vegetation cover map of Amhara Region in 2020/NDVI/
NDVI was used in this case study as an indicator of vegetation health and availability, and does not
necessarily tell us what type of vegetation was present. The MODIS NDVI composite result for the
main breeding cycles of hoppers revealed that the NDVI value had a maximum and minimum of 0.56
and 0.32 value. The result revealed that the average NDVI value for desert locust was 0.43.
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g) Desert Locust outbreak map
Combining the both the environmental and climatic factors the study created four classes based on
FAO, (2016) classification standards. Accordingly, classes 0: no conditions met, 1: Environmental
variables and climatic variables met, 2: Environmental variables met, 3: only climatic variables met,
4 all conditions met). Accordingly, the entire region was therefore classified in to one of the
aforementioned classes. And the result is presented below.
Figure 13: Desert Outbreak map of Amhara Region in 2020/2021
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4.2. The impact of desert outbreaks on crop production

The assessment found that roughly one-third of cropping households and a half of livestock rearing
households experienced Desert Locust-related pasture and crop losses.
One respondent replied that.
…….As far as concerning for impacted households, Desert Locust losses were often quite large. More
specifically, nearly 7 out of every 10 impacted cropping and livestock-rearing respondents
experienced high or very high losses to their crops and rangeland” (interview, 2021).
A comparison of the data from the study area of surveys shows significant declines in the percentage
of respondents observing Desert Locusts and related losses in Woreda’s of north wollo zone. Desert
Locust affected respondents also commonly expressed concerns that Desert Locusts were driving
increased food insecurity/malnutrition, emotional stress/anxiety, issues relating to animal and human
health, environmental impacts, and high costs of control.
The second respondent replied as;
“Due to multiple, compounding hazards (e.g. Desert Locusts, below-average rains, etc.), there was
general pessimism amongst respondents (both those affected by Desert Locusts and those who were
not) about harvest prospects and current rangeland conditions and crop failure due to the desert locust
outbreaks.
As one could understand from the respondents response, A serious and widespread Desert Locust
outbreak is destroying crops and pasture across eastern North wollo zone and neighboring areas of
south wollo, southern Tigray and Afar with a high risk of further spread in the absence of immediate
and significant scale up in control activities. There is a risk that some swarms could appear in northeast
North Wollo zone, southwest. According to FAO, this is the worst situation in 25 years and unusual
weather and climate conditions have contributed to it, including heavy and widespread rains since
October 2019.
A further increase in locust swarms is likely to continue until about June due to the continuation of
favorable ecological conditions for Locust breeding.
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The third respondent also replied that;
“…..There has been a significant and extremely dangerous increase in swarm activity during the past
two years in Ethiopia where numerous, large immature swarms are spreading from the initial invasion
areas of the Somali and Afar Regions in general, in Amhara Region, wollo districts in particular. One
immature swarm was 60 km long by 40 km wide in the northeast. More swarms are expected to occur
in these areas that could damage food crops production (interview, 2021).
This interview implied that the food crop loss caused by desert locusts is immense and at some level
leads to famine and starvation for poor and marginal farmers in developing countries like Ethiopia
where Farming is a means of livelihood for more than 85% of the population. The situation is also
tragedy in woredas of North wollo zone.
The other respondent replied that;
…”Desert locusts eat everything green and destroy crops and pasture that farming and herding
families depend on. Their appetite is voracious a swarm the size of Los Angeles can eat as much food
in a day as the entire population of Ethiopia. During plague periods, according to FAO, desert locusts
can “affect 20% of the Earth's land, more than 65 of the world's poorest countries, and potentially
damage the livelihoods of one tenth of the world's population” (interview, 2021).
This response could be supported by FAO, data of 2020, In Ethiopia alone, early assessments showed
that desert locusts have caused the destruction of nearly 800 square miles of cropland and more than
5,000 square miles of pasturelands, as well as the loss of more than 350,000 metric tons of cereal –
resulting in 1 million people in need of food aid. The World Bank estimates that locust-related losses,
including damage to crops, livestock, and other assets, could add up to as much as $8.5 billion for the
East Africa region and Yemen.
The fifth respondent replied as;
“In Ethiopia, locust infestations will likely contribute to significant decreases in agricultural
production by September, further exacerbating food insecurity and malnutrition across the country,
according to the UN. Individuals residing in locust-affected areas many of whom had limited to no
household cereal stocks following the below-average October to-December Meher harvests in 2019
are already increasingly employing negative coping strategies to meet basic needs. For example, a
February interagency assessment recorded instances of people selling livestock, as well as reducing
household expenditures on seeds, tools, and other agricultural and livestock inputs”(interview,2021).
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In conversations with farmers and pastoralists, the researcher learned that while locust-related damage
in Ethiopia remains limited and localized, the destruction caused by the pests reduced opportunities
for affected populations to bolster household food stocks with surplus crop yields during recent
harvests. Above-average harvests, though infrequent, can be critical for strengthening household
resilience against environmental shocks in north Wollo’s zone arid and semi-arid lands counties,
where cyclical drought can intermittently threaten food security.
This research conducted impact of desert locust on crop production, the assessment indicated that
desert locusts caused damage in more than 60 percent and approximately 12 percent of assessed crop
fields in the Eastern North wollo zone and other areas of Easter Amhara region, respectively, according
to FAO. As such, populations in wollo districts in particular could experience increased food insecurity
due to the impacts of the pest.
The desert locust is one of the most destructive migratory pests in the world, rapidly consuming most
vegetation in its path, including crops and pastureland critical to maintaining the food security and
livelihoods of populations in East Africa. Locust swarms are highly mobile and carried on the wind;
swarms can travel up to 100 miles per day, and even a relatively small, 0.4 square mile-sized swarm
can consume an amount of food sufficient for approximately 35,000 people in one day (FAO, 2020).
4.3. Discussion
4.3. 1.The Important Influence of variables on Desert Locusts Distribution
For this model, the researcher demonstrated the partial effect of the six most important variables on
the spatial distribution of desert locust, having first ranked the relative importance of each of the
significant variables. Studies have shown that NDVI (Normalized Vegetation Index) and soil PH are
the major factor controlling the migration and distribution of desert locusts. Among the six
environmental variables, monthly average NDVI and soil texture and soil moisture were contributed
the most to the desert locust distribution, followed by the monthly average temperature , precipitation,
and soil temperature (Table 15).
This result may be explained by the fact that desert locusts occur over much of the area of warmer and
lusher vegetation. Similar to the results of Gómez et al. (2003), results of this research show that the
soil PH and NDVI were the main factors affecting locust development. Waldner (2005) showed that
the dynamic greenness map in summer had a strong correlation with the desert locust breeding area (F
score = 0.64–0.87). This result can be explained in two ways: (1) during the migration stage of locusts,
temperature is the main factor that affects whether or not they migrate. At the same time, they need to
Page | 36
eat to survive, so locusts usually choose to land in areas with high vegetation coverage; (2) according
to the results of previous studies, Soil PH is the main factor affecting locust incubation. Previously
conducted researches temperature was the most important factor that controls desert locust distribution
and breeding but this research analysis showed that had little influence on locust migration and
movement.
Regarding to contribution of NDVI, Healthy and dense vegetation are represented by high positive
values (>0.5) while moderate positive values (0.2, 0.5) indicate altering patches of vegetation and bare
soil. After all, in case of unhealthy vegetation and given an area of specific plant composition, NDVI
appears in lower values compared to the unaffected period. Consequently, NDVI’s ability to discern
healthy and non-healthy vegetation makes it appropriate for defoliator infestations (Fraser & Latifovic,
2005; Senf et al., 2017; Waldner et al., 2015).
Furthermore, it is showed that the NDVI can serve as a productivity indicator in areas covered by
sparse vegetation or grasslands, where a linear relationship between vegetation productivity and NDVI
seems to exist (Paruelo, Epstein, Lau Enroth, & Burke, 19 1997; Prince, De Colstoun, & Kravitz,
1998).
Among the attributes of an NDVI profile representing vegetation’s seasonal growth cycle, the small
integral is suitable for representing seasonal productivity in Sahel (Fensholt et al., 2013). Small
integral refers to the area under the smoothed NDVI seasonal curve excluding the period of the year
when vegetation does not appear particularly green. Consequently, it represents vegetation’s main
seasonal productivity and is appropriate for its inter-annual comparison of a certain place.
Page | 37
CHAPTER FIVE
5. Conclusion and recommendation
5.1. Conclusion
The primary goal of this research was to GIS and remote sensing based mapping desert locust
distribution and analyses the it’s potential impact on crop production in Amhara Regional state,
Ethiopia. Therefore, high-risk areas were identified in the study area, and the possible
migration patterns of desert locusts were analyzed. To achieve this goal, the study employed remote-
sensing images from multiple sources was used to establish a prediction model for the potential
distribution range of desert locusts. Six variables have been used to produce the model of desert locust
distribution mapping such as soil temperature, moisture Precipitation, soil, Soil type, Surface
temperature, and land cover (NDVI) for the year 2020.
Furthermore, proper planning and adoption with a focus on economic, institutional and financial issues
should be ascertained. The creation of a framework that is sustainable for both environment and
economy is a must. Integrated resource management with the use of advance technology such as GIS
and remote sensing can play a vital role in locust control.
The outbreak of locust swarms has emerged as a new challenge for the Ethiopian agriculture sector.
The suitable breeding conditions created by a large number of storms and depressions in several
nations have up-surged locust invasions. The findings of this paper reveal that the recent wave of
desert locust outbreak had its origin in Arabian Deserts.
The results of the study show that the areas at risk from desert locusts are located in eastern woredas
of of Amhara Region of sout wollo,north shewa Wagehimra and north wollo zone. The Normalized
Vegetation Index (NDVI) have important impacts on changes in the potential distribution area of
desert locusts. Due to the north–south movement of the sun’s position, the potential distribution range
of the desert locust shows a periodic movement pattern. These results provide the possible distribution
range and development path of the desert locust, and from an operational point of view, which may be
useful for desert locust surveillance and control operations.
The result from the study majority of Amhara region soil texture lays under the clay coverage. From
the entire study area the 82.596% is covered by the clay soil textures. Following to the clay type of
texture the study area is characterized by clay loam soil type which constitutes around 16.5% of the
Page | 38
study area. Accordingly the map above portrays that the eastern marginal parts of Amhara region is
characterized by sandy, sandy clay, sandy clay loam and sandy loam soil texture types.
The result shows that the difference in soil moisture between these two breeding cycles can be
concluded that there is a similar pattern of soil moisture. However, the locusts observed between the
major breeding cycles (December/January/February), though representing <15% of the data, showed
a distinctly larger range of values (mean = 0.020, range = 0.019). On average, the areas within the SM
threshold constitute 76.1% of the study area.
The result indicated that the soil bottom temperature of the main breeding site had also an average
value of 32.33o C. This shows that desert locust breeding area requires an average temperature of
approximately 32o C. Also, the result of the study further revealed that lower amount of rainfall was observed
in the locust breeding site with a higher amount of 1633mm and minimum amount of 965mm in pixel values
of locust breeding sites.
The result revealed that higher amount of temperature in Amhara region 28.88o C on the other hand
the minimum amount of temperature in the study area was found 19.218o C. However, when the data
was compared with the FAO locust breeding location, the result revealed that the maximum and
minimum amount of temperature was 29.11mm and 25.66o C. The result showed us that there is a
higher amount of temperature in the locust breeding sites as indicated by the FAO data, 2020.
The MODIS NDVI composite result for the main breeding cycles of hoppers revealed that the NDVI
value had a maximum and minimum of 0.56 and 0.32 value. The result revealed that the average NDVI
value for desert locust was 0.43.
Generally, based on the result of this study it could be concluded that;
Habitat, including climate, topography, vegetation, and soil conditions influence the growth of
locust in different ways.
A GIS and remote sensing based method of data analysis has been promoted to predict the possible
distribution of locust outbreak in the study area.
The predicted desert locust outbreak distribution and areas are highly consistent with actual locust
outbreak situation in 2019 and 2020 of FAO report Map.
Therefore, the former method is more suitable in this study. Hence, this model could be a useful
tool for preventing and managing the desert locust plague.
Desert locust outbreaks has significant impact on crop production through damaging crops that
would result crop failure and finally famine of the population.
Page | 39
Combining the both the environmental and climatic factors the study created four classes based on
FAO, (2016) classification standards. Accordingly, classes 0: no conditions met, 1: Environmental
variables and climatic variables met, 2: Environmental variables met, 3: only climatic variables
met, 4 all conditions met). Accordingly, the entire region was therefore classified in to one of the
aforementioned classes.
Page | 40
5.2. Recommendation
This study would form a basis for determining the probability sites of desert locust outbreaks,
which is the essential work to protect and manage the grassland. Nevertheless, some more factors
of desert locust habitat should be concerned in the model. For example, wind speed and wind
direction, deeply affect the growth of locust as well.
Moreover, different types of grassland may cause the different species of locust. More factors of
locust habitat need to be concerned into the model, which warrant the further study in order to
improve the precise of prediction in the future.
Several measures can be taken to minimize the damage from locust swarms. Preventive measures
are not adequate at present, but efforts have been made to reduce the loss at macro scale. Farming
in Ethiopia is a means of livelihood for more than 85% of the population.
To secure the livelihood of the peasant population, sustainable and effective methods of desert
locust control need to be developed so that the threat of locusts can be dealt at an early stage.
The efficient tracking of desert locust breeding conditions and movement is crucial for effective
monitoring and planning in order to control locust swarms in the world in general and in Ethiopia
in particular.
Page | 41
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Appendixes
FAO desert locust outbreaks 2019/2020
Page | 48
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GIS and remote sensing based mapping of desert locust outbreaks and its impact on crop

production 2020/ 2021

College Of Social Science and Humanities

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies MSC in

GIS and remote sensing

Advisor: Asayew Nebere (Ass.prof)

College Of Social Science and Humanities

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies MSC in

GIS and remote sensing

GIS and remote sensing

© 2021 Addisu Teshome

By: Addisu Teshome

Approved by Board of Examiners

Advisor Signature Date

External examiner Signature Date

Internal examiner Signature Date

MSC Thesis Page I

LIST OF TABLES ..............................................................................................................................IV

LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................. V

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ...........................................................................................VI

1.1. Background of the Study......................................................................................................... 1

1.2. Statement of the Problem............................................................................................................ 4

1.3. Objectives of the study ................................................................................................................... 5

1.3.1. General objectives ................................................................................................................ 5

1.3.2. Specific objectives ............................................................................................................... 5

1.4. Research questions ......................................................................................................................... 5

1.5. Significance of the study ............................................................................................................ 6

1.6. Scope of the Study ...................................................................................................................... 6

1.7. Organization of the Paper ........................................................................................................... 6

1.8. Limitation ................................................................................................................................ 7

1.9. Operational definitions ............................................................................................................ 7

CHAPTER TWO ................................................................................................................................... 8

2. LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................... 8

2.1. Theoretical Review ..................................................................................................................... 8

2.1.1. The desert locust .................................................................................................................. 8

2.1.2 Desert locust outbreaks and its impact ................................................................................ 11

2.2. Empirical Literature on desert locust ........................................................................................ 13

2.4. Methodological Framework of the Study ................................................................................. 13

MSC Thesis Page I

CHAPTER THREE ............................................................................................................................. 15

3. MATERIALS AND METHODS .................................................................................................... 15

3.1. Description of the Study Area .................................................................................................. 15

3.1.1. Location ............................................................................................................................. 15

3.1.2. Topography ........................................................................................................................ 16

3.3. Research Methodology ............................................................................................................. 17

3.3.1. Research Design ................................................................................................................. 17

3.3.2. Data Collection and Pre-Processing ...................................................................................... 17

3.3.3. Data sources ....................................................................................................................... 17

3.3.3.1. Primary data .................................................................................................................... 17

a) Field observation .................................................................................................................. 17

3.3.3.2. Secondary sources ........................................................................................................... 18

3.3.3. Software and Materials ...................................................................................................... 20

3.4. Data Analysis Methods ............................................................................................................. 20

3.4.1. Procedure ........................................................................................................................... 20

3.4.2. MCA criteria Determination .............................................................................................. 20

3.4.3. Thematic Map Preparation ................................................................................................. 21

3.4.2. Analysis of interviews ........................................................................................................ 22

CHAPTER FOUR ............................................................................................................................... 24

4. Results and Discussion............................................................................................................. 24

4.1.1. Environmental factors ........................................................................................................ 24

4.2. The impact of desert outbreaks on crop production .............................................................. 34

4.3. Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 36

CHAPTER FIVE ................................................................................................................................. 38