EVALUATION OF RAINFALL AND STREAMFLOW TREND AND

VARIABILITY IN WABISHEBELE RIVER BASIN

CASE STUDY: UPPER WABISHEBELE WATERSHED, SOUTHEASTERN,

ETHIOPIA

M.SC. THESIS PROPOSAL

AWET TEKLE

APRIL, 2021

ARBAMINCH ETHIOPIA
 EVALUATION OF RAINFALL AND STREAMFLOW TREND AND
VARIABILITY IN UPPER WABISHEBELE RIVER BASIN, ETHIOPIA.

AWET TEKLE

ATHESIS PROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO THE

FACULTY OF HYDRAULIC AND WATER RESOURCE ENGINEERING,

WATER TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE, SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

ARBAMINCH UNIVERSITY IN PARTIAL FULFILIMENT TO THE

REQUIREMENT

OF THE DEGREE IN MASTER OF SCIENCE IN HYDRAULIC

APRIL, 2021
ARBAMINCH-ETHIOPIA
Declaration
I hereby declare that this master thesis proposal my original work and has not presented for a
degree in any other University, and all sources of material used for this proposal have duly
acknowledged

Awet Tekle _______________ _________________

Name of student Signature Date

 Arbaminch University
Arbaminch Water Technology Institute
School of Graduate Studies
Advisor Proposal Approval Sheet
This is to certify that the thesis proposal entitled “EVALUATION OF RAINFALL AND
STREAMFLOW TREND AND VARIABILITY IN UPPER WABISHEBELE
WATERSHED” has been carried out by AWET TEKLE, IDNO. PRAWTI/057/12. Therefore
I recommended that the student’s proposal can be presented for review and open oral
presentation.
Abdella Kemal (Dr.ing) _______________ _________________
Name of Principal Advisor Signature Date
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLE-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------VI
LIST OF FIGURE…………………………………………………………………………………………………VII
1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1
Background ................................................................................................................ 1
Statement of the Problem ........................................................................................... 2
Objectives of the Study .............................................................................................. 3
1.3.1 General Objectives............................................................................................................... 3
1.3.2 Specific Objectives:- ............................................................................................................ 3
Significance of the Study ........................................................................................... 3
2 LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................................................. 4
Temporal Variability of Rainfall Distribution ........................................................... 4
Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia .................................................................................. 5
Streamflow Variability ............................................................................................... 5
Trend Analysis ........................................................................................................... 6
Water Resources potential in Ethiopia ....................................................................... 7
Application of SWAT Model ..................................................................................... 7
3 MATERIAL AND METHODS......................................................................................... 9
General Description of the Study Area ...................................................................... 9
3.1.1 Location ................................................................................................................................... 9
3.1.2 Climate Conditions ........................................................................................................... 10
3.1.3 Land Use and Land Cover .............................................................................................. 11
3.1.4 Soil Types ............................................................................................................................. 11
3.1.5 Agriculture .......................................................................................................................... 11
Methods and Data Analysis ..................................................................................... 12
3.2.1 Source of Data Collection ............................................................................................... 12
3.2.2 Missing Data........................................................................................................................ 12
Filling of Missing Data ............................................................................................ 12
3.2.3 Areal Estimation................................................................................................................ 13
3.2.4 Consistency of Data .......................................................................................................... 14
3.2.5 Homogeneity Test ............................................................................................................ 14
i
 Rainfall Variability Analysis Indices ....................................................................... 14
Statistical Tests for Trend Analysis (Non-Parameters) ............................................ 15
3.4.1 Mann–Kendall Test .......................................................................................................... 15
Hydraulic model ....................................................................................................... 15
3.5.1 ArcGIS Model ...................................................................................................................... 16
3.5.2 Arc swat Model .................................................................................................................. 16
3.5.3 Model Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................ 16
3.5.4 Model Calibration and Validation............................................................................... 16
3.5.5 Model Performance Evaluations ................................................................................. 17
4 EXPECTED OUTCOME ................................................................................................ 19
5 WORKPLAN AND BUDGET ........................................................................................ 20
Work Plan ................................................................................................................. 20
Budget ...................................................................................................................... 21
REFERENCE .......................................................................................................................... 22

ii
LIST OF TABLE
Table 5.1Work schedule ......................................................................................................... 20
Table 5.2 Cost Breakdown of the Study ................................................................................. 21

iii
LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 3.1Location of Study Area .......................................................................................... 10

iv
ABBREVATION

PCA Rotated Principal Component Analysis

SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tools
GIS Geographical Information System
WSRB Wabishebele River Basin
SSTs Sea Surface Temperatures
BMPS Best Management Practices
MoWIE Ministry Of Water, Irrigation and Electricity
NMA National Meteorological Agency
DEM Digital Elevation Model
DMC Double Mass Curve
ESRI Environmental System Research Institute
NSE Nash Sutcliffe Modelling Efficiency
RSR Root mean square error observation Standard Deviation Ratio
PBIAS Percent bias
RVE Relative Volume Error
SWATCUP Soil Water Assessment Tools Calibration and Uncertainty Prediction

v
1 INTRODUCTION

Background

Climate refers to the long-term trends of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind,
precipitation, atmospheric particle count, and other meteorological variables in a given area.
Climate differs from weather, which is the current state of these variables over a shorter period
of time. Climates are categorized based on the average and normal ranges of various variables,
the most important of which are temperature and precipitation (Alemayehu et al., 2020).
Precipitation data, according to (Adler et al., 2000) is critical for understanding the global
hydrologic balance as well as the complex interactions among the components of the
hydrologic cycle.

Climate is the most important driving parameter that causes year-to-year variability in socio-
economic and environmental systems including the availability of water resources. While
droughts may be regarded as unusual in that they do not occur all the time, or in some areas
for most of the time, droughts should not be regarded as being “abnormal” and, in fact, should
be planned for all countries. Climate is the usual condition of the temperature, humidity,
atmospheric pressure, wind, rainfall, and other Meteorology /meteorological Weather elements
in an area of the Earth's surface for a long time.

Rainfall is one of the climatic factors that can indicate climate change (Obot et al., 2010).The
climate variability can be regarded as the variability (extremes and differences of monthly,
seasonal and annual values from the climatically expected value) inherent in the stationary
process approximating the climate on a scale of a few decades. Rainfall variability, among
other climatic factors, receives high attention, particularly in relation to agriculture. Rainfall
variability can be clarified either temporally, specifically, or both.

The inter-annual hydro climate can fluctuate considerably, resulting in the difficulty of
detecting a statistically significant. The interest in this topics has increased and major efforts
have been spent in learning about precipitation variability and trends due to adverse effects of
climate change (Mrad et al., 2018). Rain variability in space and time is one of the most
relevant characteristics of tropical rain forest that is associated with economic, social and
ecological implications.

1
Rainfall and precipitation levels are important factors affecting crop selection and ecological
changes in a region. Accurately predicting precipitation trends can play an important role in a
country’s future economic development.

Streams and rivers play a critical role in the hydrologic cycle that is essential for all life on
Earth. Streams and rivers, like all natural habitats, are subject to change over time. Significant
changes can occur over geologic timescales.

Ethiopia relies on low-productivity rain-fed agriculture for the majority of its national income;
thus, the timing and amount of rainfall in Ethiopia cannot be overstated.

Statement of the Problem

Rainfall and river flow in Africa display high levels of variability across a range of spatial and
temporal scale, with significant consequences for the management of water resource systems
(Conway et al., 2009) . Throughout Africa, this variability brings significant implications for
society and causes widespread severe human suffering and economic damage.
Rainfall variability has an effect on water resource sustainability, including availability,
management, and use land productivity, livestock, food security, water quantity, and human
health can all be affected as a result.
Various studies have shown changes in rainfall variability and trends across Ethiopia, but they
are not consistent or simple. Because of Ethiopia's equatorial location and varied topography,
the country's climate is very diverse (Steeneveld GJ, 2014).
High rainfall variability and unpredictability, strong winds, high temperatures, and high
evapotranspiration describe the climate of Ethiopia's arid and semi-arid regions (Tamiru et al.,
2015). Wabishebele river basin is characterized by an arid and semi-arid climate, thus, receives
low and uneven rainfall (Bekele et al., 2017).
Climate change and variability of precipitation or rainfall have a wide range of negative
consequences in socioeconomic and natural systems. Changes in climate and rainfall
variability, as a result of rising year-to-year variability and an increase in droughts and heavy
precipitation events, reduce agricultural productivity and have a negative effect on flood
protection. The availability of water is likely to decrease as evaporation increases and rainfall
events become more complex.

2
According to (Society, 2016) upper Wabishebele watershed has shown wide variations over
time and space due to the complex of topography and varying latitude.
The streamflow in the Upper Wabishebele watershed has been repeated variability, with the
amount of water continuously decreasing or rising. During this time rainfall and streamflow
also repeatedly varied.
In the Upper wabishebele watershed there have been uneven distribution of rainfall results in
a mismatch between water availability and demand, irrigation structures are required to
redistribute water concerning the requirements of a specific area and there is scarcity of water
resources potential in the watershed.
In the upper portion of the wabishebele basin with most of the stations having incomplete and
insufficient rainfall records due to this problem it has very low estimate water resource
potential for the development of the basin (Getachew, 2019).

Objectives of the Study

1.3.1 General Objectives

This study aims to evaluate rainfall and streamflow trend and variability in Wabishebele river
basin.

1.3.2 Specific Objectives:-

To determine the upper wabishebele watershed’s rainfall trend and variability over time
and space
To evaluate the streamflow trend and variability distribution using Mann-Kendal test,
Sen’s estimator, Spearman’s rho Test and descriptive statistics.
To estimate current water resources potential in the basin

Significance of the Study

This study aims to evaluate the temporal rainfall variability of rainfall distribution and
streamflow with statistical trend analysis of monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall and
streamflow using Mann-Kendal test, Sen’s slope estimator, descriptive statistics, and
Spearman’sRho test in the wabishebele river basin.
The study will provide information on the potential of the upper wabishebele watershed, water
resources for irrigation development and also help to understand the past and current rainfall
variability effects on the upper wabishebele watershed streamflow.
3
2 LITERATURE REVIEW

Temporal Variability of Rainfall Distribution

Rain variability in space and time is one of the most important features of tropical rain forests,
and it has economic, social, and ecological consequences. Extreme rain events have major
environmental effects, causing substantial harm in both urban and rural areas. Precipitation
variability over time has a major effect on the structure and function of semiarid ecosystems
(Nippert et al., 2006).
The country's numerous regions receive rainfall throughout the year, but rainfall is seasonal
and poor in some areas, and the economy is heavily reliant on rainfall for jobs, revenue, and
foreign currency generation, and differences in elevation and seasonal changes in the
atmospheric pressure systems that power the prevailing winds cause variations in rainfall
patterns throughout the world (Seleshi & Zanke, 2004).
Rainfall variability, among other climatic factors, receives high attention, particularly in
relation to agriculture. Africa is one of the most susceptible continents to rainfall fluctuations,
a condition made worse by the interaction of multiple stressors at different levels, as well as
low adaptive Rotated principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to deviations from the
annual mean as well as seasonal anomalies to investigate interannual variability in African
rainfall.
Rainfall anomaly patterns are formed using composites of high and low values of these indices
to measure the year-to-year difference in rainfall in the study areas. High rainfall variability
and unpredictability, strong winds, high temperatures, and high evapotranspiration describe
the climate of Ethiopia's arid and semi-arid regions (Tamiru et al., 2015). It is critical to
evaluate rainfall and temperature temporal variability over a large area, in order to measure its
impact, especially on crop yields, which can then be converted into the best adaptation options
based on the development potential and unique challenges of a particular farming region.
Ethiopia is one of the countries whose economy is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture
and also facing recurring cycles of flood and drought. Current climate variability is already
imposing a significant challenge to Ethiopia in general and the people who live in the
wabishebele river basin in particular, by affecting food security, water and energy supply,
poverty reduction and sustainable development efforts, as well as by causing natural resource

4
degradation and natural disasters. Meteorologically, wabishebele river basin is characterized
by an arid and semi-arid climate, thus, receives low and uneven rainfall (Bekele et al., 2017).
The arid and semi-arid environments, mainly Eastern, Southern and Western parts of Ethiopia
are particularly prone to climate variability. The vast majority of the people in these areas live
in miserable condition as far as their economy depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. This
shows the sensitivity to variability of rainfall across time and space (Aden, 2015).

Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia

Rainfall is one of the most important climate factors for agricultural development all over the
world. Rainfall variability affects water resource sustainability, including availability,
management, and use. This, may affect ecosystems, land productivity, agriculture, food
security, water quantity and human health.
According to (Society, 2016) Ethiopian rainfall has shown wide variations over time and space
due to the country's complex topography and varying latitude. Spatially, the amount, seasonal
cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing period, have shown
variability across the country (Segele & Lamb, 2005; Society, 2016). Temporally, it varies
from days to decades, with the magnitude and direction of historic rainfall trends varying from
region to region and season to season (Seleshi & Zanke, 2004; Viste et al., 2013), this complex
Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in
altitude, variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic
Oceans and the inter .Hence, for ecosystem resilience and sustainable agricultural activities,
accurate estimation of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is crucial, particularly
for rain-fed agriculture.

Although various studies indicated changes in the variability and trends of rainfall over
Ethiopia, they are not consistent and clear. Because the climate of Ethiopia is geographically
quite diverse, due to its equatorial positioning and varied topography (Steeneveld GJ, 2014).

Streamflow Variability

Streams and rivers are vital components of the hydrologic cycle, which is essential for all life
on Earth. Flow variability is a numerical and sometimes statistical measure of how flow varies

5
over time and/or space, whereas hydrological disturbance may refer to a variety of items,
including a shift in flow regime or the impact of flow variability(Karlsen, 2016).

Streamflow fluctuates from day to day, and even minute to minute. Precipitation runoff in the
watershed, of course, has the greatest impact on streamflow. Rain causes rivers to rise, and a
river will rise even if it just rains very high up in the watershed bear in mind the water that falls
in the watershed inevitably drains by the outflow stage. Streamflow fluctuates from day to
day, and even minute to minute. Of course, the main influence on stream flow is precipitation
runoff in the watershed or river basin (Fentaw et al., 2017). Mechanisms that cause the
variability in streamflow

Natural mechanisms
Runoff from rainfall
Evaporation from soil and surface-water bodies
Transpiration by vegetation
Ground water recharge from surface-water bodies
Sedimentation of lakes and wetlands
Human-activities mechanisms
River flow regulation for hydropower and navigation
Surface water withdrawals and trans basin
Construction, removal, and sedimentation of reservoir
Stream channelization and levee construction
Land-use changes such as urbanization that alter rates erosion and overland flow

Trend Analysis

Mann–Kendall’s and Sen’s Slope Estimator tests were used for trend tests. Mann–Kendall’s
test is a non-parametric method, which is less sensitive to outliers and tests for a trend in a time
series without specifying whether the trend is linear or non-linear (Partal & Kahya, 2006). The
initial value of the Z test statistics S is assumed to be zero, implying no trend. If a data value
from a later time period is found to be greater than the data value from an earlier time period,
then S is incremented by one. On the other hand, if the data value from the later time period is
lower than that of the earlier period, the Z test statistics S is reduced by one. The overall result
of all increments and decrements provides the final S value, which lies between -1 and 1.

6
The null hypothesis of the Z test is no change has occurred during the time (no trend). Whereas
the alternative hypothesis of the Z test is a significant change has occurred over the time. The
Mann–Kendall test statistics are given as follows (Salmi et al., 2002).
In long-term temporal data, the MK pattern test is based on two hypotheses: one that is null
(H0), and the other that is alternative (H1). (H0) denotes no trend, while H1 denotes a
substantial rising or declining trend in precipitation data (Bekele et al., 2017).
The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test, which is commonly used for hydrologic data analysis,
can be used to detect trends that are monotonic but not necessarily linear. The Mann–Kendall
test does not require assuming normality, and only indicates the direction but not the magnitude
of significant trends (da Silva et al., 2015).

Water Resources potential in Ethiopia

According to Ministry Of Water and Energy report, among the total area of land of Ethiopia
the land area and water bodies are covered 99.3% and 0.7% respectively. Those water bodies
are include major 12 river basins of the country; 8 Rivers with flow and one rift valley with
water and the other 3 basins have not visible water flow due to they are located in the part of
the country that is not get enough mount of rainfall throughout the year. There are also 12
major lakes, reservoirs and dams as well as sufficient amount of underground water sources.
The amount of water obtained from the major River basins are estimated to reach more than
124.4 billion cubic meters (BCM). But all the River basins except Awash are transboundary
Rivers in which 97 percent of flows terminate to neighboring countries. The water resources
of Ethiopia are governed strongly by the amount and distribution of rainfall the distribution of
rainfall over the country is highly variable. Variations in rainfall throughout the country are
highly influenced by differences in elevation and seasonal changes in the atmospheric pressure
systems that control the prevailing winds(Getachew, 2019).
Most of the Ethiopian rivers originate from highland areas and flow into different directions to
lowland areas including to the neighboring countries. This is the reason why Ethiopia has been
considered as the water tower of Northeast Africa.

Application of SWAT Model

The SWAT model has been one of the most widely used water quality watershed and river
basin-scale models in the world, with applications to a wide range of hydrologic and/or

7
environmental topics. Among the many issues that hydrological and water quality modeling
models are being used to solve around the world are the impacts of alternative best
management practices (BMPs) and future climate change on streamflow and water quality
(Gassman et al., 2014).
GIS is a set of computer-based tools for capturing, storing, updating, manipulating, retrieving,
analyzing, displaying, printing, and other tasks involving large quantities of geographic and
attribute data (Singh Tanwar et al., 2013). Arc SWAT is an ArcGIS extension for the SWAT
(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model (Arnold et al., 2012).
SWAT is a river basin, or watershed, scale model that was designed to predict the effect of
land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields over long
periods of time in large, complex watersheds with varying soils, land use, and management
conditions. The Agricultural Research Service and the Texas Agricultural Experiment Station,
Temple, Texas, published Soil and Water Assessment Tool input/output and Theoretical
Documentation, Version 2012 (Arnold et al., 2012)for a detailed description of SWAT.
The Arc SWAT ArcGIS extension arose from the ArcView extension AVSWAT2000, which
was created for a previous version of SWAT (Di Luzio et al., 2002).

8
3 MATERIAL AND METHODS

General Description of the Study Area

3.1.1 Location
Wabishebele river basin, located in Southeastern part of Ethiopia, is a transboundary river
basin shared between Ethiopia and Somalia. The part in Ethiopia lies between 4o 45' N to 9o
45'N latitude and 38o 45'E to 45o 30'E longitude, including the closed watershed of the Fafen
and the Bio Ado.
Wabe Shebelle river basin has an area of 202,697 Km2, is the largest of Ethiopia’s twelve river
basins and covering parts of the regions Oromia, Harari, Somali and a small area at the source
of the Wabe River in SNNPE. This river basin has a lowest elevation of 184 m. and a highest
elevation of 4182 m. It springs from the Bale mountain ranges of the Galama and the Ahmar
about 4216 m above mean sea level and drains into Indian Ocean crossing Somalia.

9
 Figure 3.1Location of Study Area

3.1.2 Climate Conditions

The upper reaches of the Wabishebele basin, which account for 25 percent of the basin drainage
area, are sub-tropical zones locally known as WeinaDega. This zone is found between an
altitude of 1500m and 2500m above sea level in Harari National Regional State and Bale, West

10
Hararge, East Hararge, and Arsi zones of Oromia region. These zones receive an annual rainfall
up to 1200 mm and above, and the temperature ranges between 16 to 20°C. Settlements are
dense, and it is the most intensively cultivated reach of the basin. Wurch and High Wurch zone
covering Arsi and Bale highlands occupies the smallest portion of the total area of the basin.

3.1.3 Land Use and Land Cover

On the northwestern side of the basin, the WSRB has a small area of cultivated land. Bush,
timber, and grassland occupy a significant portion of the basin. The northeastern portion of the
basin is covered in shrubs and bush that are primarily used for pasture, but crop cultivation is
not common in this region (Getachew, 2019).
Runoff and evapotranspiration are strongly affected by land use and land cover. Satellite
images and various land use/land cover classification maps were used to identify and interpret
the area's land use pattern. The area's dominant land use types are intensively cultivated,
moderately cultivated, shrub land, grassland, riparian vegetation, water body, small forest, and
marsh land.

3.1.4 Soil Types

Soils have extreme variability due to a wide variety of topographic and climatic influences,
parent material, and land use. Different soil forming factors have taken precedence in different
parts of the world. In terms of soil types, the WSRB has a varied composition throughout the
basin. Soils with calcarious or gypseous differentiation make up half of the soils. The water-
holding capacity of soils is classified into nine groups, ranging from wetlands with 1000 mm
of water-holding capacity to soils with less than 20 mm of water-holding capacity (Abebe &
Forch, 2014)

3.1.5 Agriculture
Cultivation is difficult and confined to growing limited types of crops. About 75 percent (100
000 km2 ) of the basin area located in Somali region has an attitude of less than 550m above
sea level, with the lowest in the basin being 220 mm in Kelafo Area of Somali Region. This
area is categorized as semi-desert zone having a mean annual rainfall ranging between 150 mm
and 500 mm and 25°C as the mean annual temperature. This zone is mainly occupied by semi-
nomadic societies with cattle rearing being the main economic activity. The remaining
25percent of the basin area in Somali region is predominantly located at an altitude between

11
500m, and 1,500m is a tropical zone, which is locally termed as kolla area. The area receives
an average annual rainfall between 500mm to 1,000mm and temperature ranges between 20°
-25°C. The mean annual evaporation reaches to 2800- 3 000 mm in the southeast. The
northwestern part of the basin has a strong cereal production potential, while the north eastern
part of the basin has a low cereal production potential. The region's livestock population is
found in the south and south-east, which is classified as a pastoral and agro-pastoral lowland
area with low and variable rainfall. People living in the basin's northwestern highlands
participate in agricultural practices such as cultivating wheat, teff, maize, and sorghum, among
other crops.

Methods and Data Analysis

3.2.1 Source of Data Collection

This study will be conducted by collection of secondary data from their respective sources.
Hydrological time series data (stream flow data), will be collected from Ministry of Water,
Irrigation and Electricity (MoWIE). Meteorological data will be collected from National
Meteorological Agency (NMA) and which includes the following rainfall, temperature,
sunshine, evaporation and evapotranspiration. Also another secondary data is spatial data
which is the most necessary data any hydrological studies and it is wonder full way to
representing studies areas by shaped or map format. This data either collected from MoWIE
or from another sources like that USGS earth explorer. The most required spatial data includes
the followings DEM (30mx30m), shape file, soil, land use land cover and river etc.

3.2.2 Missing Data

Filling of Missing Data
In order to compute precipitation totals and averages, one must estimate the missing values.
Several approaches are used to estimate the missing values.

I. Station Average Method

II. Normal Ratio Method
III. Inverse Distance Weighting Method , and
IV. Regression methods are commonly used to fill the missing records.

12
In Station Average Method, the missing record is computed as the simple average of the values
at the nearby gauges. Mc Cuen (1998) recommends using this method only when the annual
precipitation value at each of the neighboring gauges differs by less than 10% from that for the
gauge with missing data

1
Px = ⌈P1 + P2 + ⋯ pn⌉
M

Where, PX = the missing precipitation

P1, p2...pm = precipitation records @ neighboring station
M = Numbers of neighboring stations
If the annual precipitations vary considerably by more than 10 %, the missing record is
estimated by the Normal Ratio Method, by weighing the precipitation at the neighboring
stations by the ratios of normal annual precipitations.
Nx P1 P2 Pm
Px = [N1 + N2 + ⋯ Nm]
M

Where, Nx = Annual-average precipitation @ the gage with missing value

N1, N2… Nm = Annual average precipitation @neighboring gauges
The Inverse Distance Method weights the annual average values only by their distances, dm,
from the gauge with the missing data and so does not require information about average annual
precipitation at the gauges.
m

D = ∑ dm−b
m=1
The missing value is estimated as:-
M
1
Px = ∑ dm−b ∗ Nm
D
M=1
The value of b can be 1 if the weights are inversely proportional to distance or 2, if the weights
are proportional to distance squared.
If relatively few values are missing at the gauge of interest, it is possible to estimate the
missing value by regression method.

3.2.3 Areal Estimation

Several approaches have been devised for estimating areal precipitation from point
measurements. The Arithmetic mean, the Thiessen polygon and the Isohyetal method are some
the approaches.

13
 𝑃1+𝑃2+𝑃3+⋯𝑃𝑛 ∑𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑃𝑖
1. Arithmetic mean method: 𝑃(𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒) = =
𝑛 𝑛
∑𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑃𝑖∗𝐴𝑖
2. Thiessen polygon: 𝑃(𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒) = 𝐴𝑡
𝑃1+𝑃2 𝑃2+𝑃3 𝑃𝑛+𝑃𝑛+1)
( )+𝐴2∗( )+⋯𝐴𝑛−1∗( )
2 2 2
3. Isohyetal method: 𝑃(𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒) = 𝐴1 ∗ 𝐴𝑡

Where, n =number of station P1, p2, p3….Pn = precipitation At = total area of station A1, A2,
A3, An-1 = area of each station Pi = precipitation of the i-nth and Ai =area of the i-nth

3.2.4 Consistency of Data

Data consistency is determined for testing and adjusting available rainfall data, particularly
when conditions relevant to the rain gauge station have changed significantly, causing data
inconsistency. The double- mass curve is used to check the consistency of many kinds of
hydrologic data by comparing date for a single station with that of a pattern composed of the
data from several other stations in the area (Gao et al., 2017).

3.2.5 Homogeneity Test

To select the representative meteorological station for the analysis of areal rainfall, checking
homogeneity of group stations is essential. The homogeneity of the selected gauging stations
monthly rainfall records were carried out by non-dimensional homogeneity test.
The non-dimensional values of the monthly precipitation of each station were computed by
𝑝𝑖𝑎𝑣
using the following formula. pi = ∗ 100
𝑝𝑎𝑣

Where is non-dimensional value of precipitation for the month in station i, is over years
averaged monthly precipitation for the station i and ̅ is the over years average yearly
precipitation of the station i.

Rainfall Variability Analysis Indices

Monthly rainfall variability or dispersion of any data series can be evaluated based on statistical
analysis with the help of the different parameters (Suresh R. 2005). There are several variability
indices that are used to analysis the temporal variation of the annual rainfall.

14
 Statistical Tests for Trend Analysis (Non-Parameters)

3.4.1 Mann–Kendall Test

This test is the result of the development of the nonparametric trend test first proposed by Mann
(1945 and improved by Kendall (1975). The Mann Kendall Trend Test (sometimes called
the M-K test) is used to analyze data collected over time for consistently increasing or
decreasing trends (monotonic) in Y values. According to the MK test, this study tested the
null hypothesis (H0) of no trend that is the observations xi are randomly. The MK statistics S
is calculated using the formula:
𝑆 = ∑𝑛−1 𝑛
𝑖=1 ∑𝑗=𝑖+1 𝑠𝑔𝑛(𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑖)

where n is the length of the dataset, xi and xj are two elements of the considered time series at
the time step i and j, respectively, and
−1, (𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑖) < 0
𝑠𝑔𝑛 (𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑖) = { 0, (𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑖) = 0
1, (𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑖) > 0
If the dataset is identically and independently distributed, then the mean of S is zero and the
variance of S is given by
𝑚
1
𝑉𝑎(𝑆) = [𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(2𝑛 + 5) − ∑ 𝑡𝑖(𝑡𝑖 − 1)(2𝑡 + 5)]
18
𝑖=1

where n is the length of the dataset, m is the number of tied groups (a tied group is a set of
sample data having the same value) in the time series and ti is number of data points in the ith
group. The Z statistics is computed using the formula:
𝑆+1
𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆 < 0
√𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑆)
𝑍= 0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆 = 0
𝑆−1
𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆 > 0
{ √𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑆)
A significant level α is also utilized for testing either an upward or downward monotone trend.

Hydraulic model

Hydraulic model of Natural River could be successfully analyzed with four equations:
continuity, energy, momentum, and manning. The Manning equation is considered to be

15
empirical and is used to estimate friction loss while the energy equation is considered semi
empirical. The basic models which are necessary for the study are as follows.

3.5.1 ArcGIS Model

ArcGIS provides a strong set of tools for describing, analyzing, and modeling natural system
processes and functions (Maguire, 2016). Interactions and relationships among diverse system
components can be explored and visualized using the powerful analytical and visualization
tools that GIS software provides. ArcGIS is a geographic information system (GIS) for
working with maps and geographic information maintained by the Environmental Systems
Research Institute (Esri).

3.5.2 Arc swat Model

ArcSWAT is an ArcGIS-ArcView extension and interface for SWAT. The SWAT (Soil Water
Assessment Tool) model, first released in the 1990’s, is a small watershed to river basin-scale
model that simulates the quality and quantity of surface and groundwater and predicts the
environmental impacts of land use, land management practices, and climate change.

3.5.3 Model Sensitivity Analysis

The aim of sensitive analysis is to improve the impact of a collection of parameters on
predicting total flow and other model outputs(Loucks et al., 2005). Model users may use the
sensitivity analysis method to define the parameters that are most important in regulating
stream flow response. Sensitivity analysis can assist in determining the relative significance of
which parameters have the greatest effect on output variance due to input variability,
minimizing uncertainty and providing parameter estimation guidance for the model's
calibration phase. The first step in the calibration and validation process is to identify the most
sensitive parameters for a given watershed or sub basin.

The model parameters will be said to be steep slope (If having variation between in NSE and
RVE) and will be considered as the most sensitive while, will having moderate to gentle slopes
(If having low variation between interval in NSE and RVE) are considered as less sensitive.

3.5.4 Model Calibration and Validation

Calibration is an effort to better parameterize a model to a given set of local conditions, thereby
reducing the prediction uncertainty. Model calibration will be performed by carefully selecting

16
values for model input parameters (within their respective uncertainty ranges) by comparing
model predictions (output) for a given set of assumed conditions with observed data for the
same conditions (Arnold et al., 2012). The model was used for future forecasts under various
management water resource planning activities because its predictive potential was shown to
be realistic in both the calibration and validation phases.

3.5.5 Model Performance Evaluations

The accuracy and reliability of predictions made by the SWAT CUP model will be assessed
using statistical methods as compared to observed values.

Different statistical indicators like coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe modeling

efficiency (NSE), Root mean square error observation standard deviation ratio (RSR) and
percent bias (PBIAS) have been used to check the accuracy of stream flow calibration and
validations.

The coefficient of determination (R2) is a measure of how strong the relationship between
observed and simulated values is:

[ ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑌𝑠𝑖𝑚 − Ȳ 𝑠𝑖𝑚) ∗ (𝑌𝑜𝑏𝑠 − Ȳ𝑜𝑏𝑠]2

𝑅2 =
∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑌𝑠𝑖𝑚 − Ȳ𝑠𝑖𝑚)2 ∗ (𝑌𝑜𝑏𝑠 − Ȳ𝑜𝑏𝑠)^2

The Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency (NSE) is a measure of how well the observed versus
simulated value plot matches the 1:1 axis. NSE is 1 if the calculated value is the same as all
predictions.

If the NSE is between 0 and 1, it means that the measured and expected values are out of
whack. When NSE is negative, predictions are low, and the average performance value is a
better approximation than the model prediction (Nash, Sutcliffe, 1970).

∑𝑛𝑖=1((𝑌𝑜𝑏𝑠 − 𝑌𝑠𝑖𝑚)2 )
𝑁𝑆𝐸 = 1 −
∑𝑛𝑖=1((𝑌𝑜𝑏𝑠 − Ȳ𝑜𝑏𝑠)2 )

The average propensity of the simulated data to be greater or smaller than the observed values
is calculated by percent bias (PBIAS). PBIAS is expressed as a percentage; the lower the
PBIAS's absolute value, the better the model's performance.

17
 ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑌𝑠𝑖𝑚 − ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑌𝑜𝑏𝑠
𝑃𝐵𝐼𝐴𝑆 = [ ] ∗ 100
∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑌𝑜𝑏𝑠

The RSR (root mean square error observation standard deviation ratio) is a measure of error.
RSR is a number that ranges from 0 to 1, with the lower value, which is closer to zero, meaning
that the model's output is more accurate. When the values get close to 1, it means the model
isn't performing well.

√∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑌𝑜𝑏𝑠 − 𝑌𝑠𝑖𝑚)2
𝑅𝑆𝑅 =
√∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑌𝑜𝑏𝑠 − Ȳ𝑠𝑖𝑚)2

Where 𝑌𝑜𝑏𝑠 and 𝑌𝑠𝑖𝑚 are the observed and simulated values, 𝑌̅𝑜𝑏𝑠 is the mean of n observed
values, and Ȳsim is the mean of n simulated values, respectively. Each model statistical
indicator will be tested and calibrated at least the minimum recommended values of R2 > 0.6,
NSE > 0.5, RSR 0.7, and PBIAS +20, according to (Yuemei et al., 2008).

Relative Volume Error (RVE): measures the average volume of difference between the
simulated and the observed streamflow. It is varied between -∞ and +∞ but performs is best
when a value of 0 is generated since the accumulated difference between simulated 𝑄𝑠𝑖𝑚(𝑖) and
observed 𝑄𝑜𝑏𝑠(𝑖) discharges. Value between +5% and −5% indicates that a model performs
very well while value between ±10 and ±10% indicates that a model has reasonably good
performance.

∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑄𝑠𝑖𝑚(𝑖) − ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑄𝑜𝑏𝑠(𝑖)

𝑅𝑉𝐸 = [ ]
∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑄𝑜𝑏𝑠(𝑖)

18
4 EXPECTED OUTCOME

The main output that expected from the study area based on the methodology and data analysis
used and the different types of data collected is:-

Computing the Mean, Standard deviation, Coefficient of skewness and Coefficient of

kurtosis in the annual rainfall series for Upper wabishebele watershed for each
stations.
Computing Trends in annually and monthly rainfall and streamflow
Understanding the variation of rainfall and streamflow at different stations
Computing the minimum and maximum rainfall at each stations
Computing Mann-Kendal Test trend and Sen’s slope estimate
Estimating the current water resources potential in the basin

19
5 WORKPLAN AND BUDGET

Work Plan

The work plan of different activities will be accomplished in accordance with the following
schedule. It can be updated during the work and may be shorten or lengthen as per the total
time needed for the completion of the thesis.

Table 5. 1Work schedule

S.No Activities Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep
1 Literature
review
2 Data collection

3 Data analysis
and
interpretation
4 Report writing

5 Report editing
and compiling

20
 Budget

The financial plan during the study will be allocated as shown below.

Table 5.2 Cost Breakdown of the Study

S/No Descriptions Unit Quantity Unit price Total price

(EBR) (Birr)
1 Photocopy pages 1000 1000 1000

Thesis printing paper pieces 4 500 2000

Hard disk 1000GB 1 4000 4000

Exercise book and pen No. 2 200 400

2 Costs to collect
secondary data

transport Costs of trip 10 400 4000

transport
for site

Costs trip 15 200 3000

transport
to
concerned
Agencies
Secondary NMSA No 1 3000 3000
data
Field visit Days trip 10 500 5000
perdium
3 Software training month 2 2000 4000

4 Mobile card, flash card 4000

and internet
Total cost 30,400

21
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