Learning Curves

Sections:
1. Learning Curve Theory
Chapter 19
2. Crawford Model
3. Total Cumulative Time
4. Determining the Learning Rate

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Learning Curve Phenomenon
Learning Curve Phenomenon: Reduction in
cycle time that occurs in a repetitive work
activity as the number of cycles increases
 An important topic in time study
 When a worker accomplishes a task over and over, the
time required for each successive cycle decreases as he
or she learns the task
 At first the learning effect is rapid, and the cycle time
decreases significantly
 As more and more cycles are completed, the cycle
time reduction becomes less and less

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Learning Curve Phenomenon
 Learning Curve analysis has been applied for different
areas rather than cycle unit time:

1- It can estimate the product cost.

2- Product quality
3- Occupational safety

 Learning Curve phenomenon is easiest to envision for

individual worker, the same kind of improvement occurs in the
repetitive operations of workers team.

 Learning Curve is also called experience curve

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Learning Curve Theory
 According to theory, there is a constant learning rate that
applies to a given repetitive task
 Learning rate (LR) is the proportion by which the
dependent variable (e.g., task time) is multiplied every time
the number of task cycles doubles

 Example: If T1 = 10 hr and LR = 80%, then

T2 = 0.80(10) = 8.0 hr,
T4 = 0.80(8.0) = 6.4 hr
T8 = 0.80(6.4) = 5.12 hr
and so on

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Learning Curve for LR = 80%

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Learning Curve Theory (Cont.)

 There is one important term related to the learning rate

which is called improvement rate.

 Improvement rate is the percentage of improvement in

cycle time of the unit (dependent variable) as the number
of unit doubles.

Improvement Rate (IR) = 1- LR

IR = improvement rate expressed as a decimal fraction

LR = Learning rate expressed as a decimal fraction

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Learning Curve Theory (Cont.)

 The studies have presented that in industrial sector the learning

rate ranges from 60% to less than 100%.

 Learning rate of 60% indicates a very reduction in task time

while the number of cycles are doubled.

Learning rate of 60% very reduction in task time while the

number of cycles are doubled.
Learning rate of 100% Meaning no learning

Higher than of 100% Meaning loss of learning

 Higher value of LR (value of LR closer to one) means slower

learning in the task or operation. In contrast, the lower value
means faster learning.
 Log-Linear Model
When learning curve time data are plotted on log-log
coordinates, the plot yields a straight line with slope m

y = kxm
where y = dependent variable (time of the task), k = constant
representing the value of the dependent variable for the first
work cycle, x = number of work units completed, and m = slope
lnLR 
m= and LR = 2m
ln 2

m = learning curve slope

LR = Learning rate expressed as a decimal fraction (e.g., 80% =
0.80)
 Same Learning Curve in Log-Log Plot

Example: for learning rate less than 1.0 (100%), m is negative value
so, the slope is negative as presented in the Figure (m = -0.322 for
80% LR)

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Crawford Model
Crawford Model: is the most widely used learning
curve model in industry today to determine the
expected time to perform the N th work cycle:

TN  T1N m

TN = unit time for the Nth work cycle,

T1 = time for the first unit cycle,
N = number of the work cycle in the repetitive sequence.
m = learning curve slope (see the equation in slide 8)

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Crawford Model (Cont.)

Example: T1 = 10 hr, LR = 80%, how long will it take

to complete the 20th work unit?
Solution:
TN  T1N m

m = ln(0.80)/ln 2 = -0.32193

T20 = 10(20)-0.32193 = 3.81 hr

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Total Cumulative Time
 Total cumulative time of the N work units. This time is
important and useful in bidding on a batch of N work units
for a prospective customer.

 Total cumulative time is also necessary to estimate the

cost of the production as well as it helps to identify the
extra time of work (additional work shift) if needed.

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Total Cumulative Time (TCT)
Total cumulative time for number of work units cycles:

TTN = Total cumulative time for N work units, T1 = time for the first cycle, i = an
intermediate variable for the summing procedure, N = number of the work cycles units

If N is large, the following estimation may be used:

E(TTN) = estimated value of TTN

 Total Cumulative Time
 Example: Determine the cumulative total time of the 20
work units of a task for learning rate of 80%, given that the time
of first unit is 10 hr?
Solution:
First way: summing the unit times for unit 1 through 20
using equation:

m = ln(0.80)/ln 2 = -0.32193
TT20 = 10 [(1)m + (2)m +(3)m + (4)m + (5)m + ……. (20)m ]

TT20 = 10 [(1)-0.32193 + (2) -0.32193 +(3) -0.32193 + ……. +(20) -0.32193 ]

TT20 = 10 [1+ 0.80+ 0.7021+ ……. +0.3812] = 104.85 hr
 Total Cumulative Time (Cont.)

Solution:
Second way: using the approximation equation:

(20 + 0.5)1-0.32193 – (0.5) 1-0.32193

E(TT20) = 10 = 105.12 hr
1 - 032193

Note: The difference between the two results is only 0.258%, and this percentage error is good for
application and is not considered as a significant difference in the time.
 Total Cumulative Time (Cont.)

 Other equation to determine Total cumulative Time is the Wright

model equation:

TTN = T1 * Nm+1

TTN = Total cumulative time for N work units, T1 = time for the first cycle

 Cumulative average time

TTN E(TTN)
TN  OR TN =
N N
 Crawford Vs. Wright
Given that the time for the first unit T1 is 10 hr and that the total
cumulative time TT20 is 100 hr for 20 units, determine the learning rate
(LR) using both Crawford and Wright models.
Solution:
Using Crawford model:

(20 + 0.5)1-m – (0.5) 1-m

E(TT20) = 10 = 100 hr
1-m

By trial and error, m = -0.3488

LR = 2m = 2-0.3488 = 0.785 or 78.5%
Using Wright model:
TTN = T1 × Nm+1
100 = 10 × 20m+1
m = -0.23137
LR = 2m = 2-0.23137 = 0.852 or 85.2%
 Why the Learning Curve Occurs
Contributions of the worker
 Worker becomes familiar with the task - the
worker learns the task
 Worker makes fewer mistakes as the task is
repeated
 Hand and body motions become more efficient,
and there is a rhythm and pattern developed
 Minor adjustments in workplace layout to
reduce distances
 Fewer delays that interrupt the operation

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Why the Learning Curve Occurs (Cont.)

Contributions of the larger organization

 Methods improvements by the IE Department
 Technological improvements
 Better scheduling
 Improved logistical support
 Better motivation of workers

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Determining the Learning Rate (LR)
 There are two ways to obtain learning rate (LR):

(1) Industry average: Some typical values of learning rate for the Crawford
model are listed below:

Type of work LR, % Industry LR, %

Assembly 84-85 Aerospace 85

Prototype assembly 65 Complex machines 75-85
Clerical operations 75-85 Construction 70-90
Inspection 86 Electronics mfg 90-95
Machining 90 Machine shop 90-95
Welding 85-90 Shipbuilding 80-85
 Determining the Learning Rate (LR) Cont.

 There are two ways to obtain learning rate (LR):

(2) Using the data from application: Some typical values of learning rate for
the Crawford model are listed below:
 The learning rate can be estimated by determine the ratio of every time the
number of units doubles:

T2N
LR =
TN
Where N is any unit number and 2N is double that number
 Determining the Learning Rate (LR) Cont.

 Finding the slope from any two observations: if the data are not available or
missing for the doubling effect in unit time values. The LR can be determine by
calculation of the slope m for any two values

lnTN2 – lnTN1
m=
ln(N2) – ln(N1) lower unit value

Where; m = learning curve slope and TN2 and TN1 are the unit times for units N2 and N1

Upper unit value

After determining the slope (m), then we can find the LR by the below equation:

LR = 2m