Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • Chart 3 The Coincident Index and The Malaysian Business Cycles

    Uploaded by

    smazadamha sulaiman
    11 views8 pages
    This document contains 6 charts that analyze business cycles in Malaysia using coincident and leading economic indexes. Chart 3 shows that the coincident index tracks closely with GDP growth and indicates the timing of business cycle peaks and troughs. Charts 4 and 5 display the leading index, which leads the business cycle, and the lagging index, which lags the business cycle. The remaining charts provide closer analysis of specific recession and recovery periods in Malaysia.

    Original Description:

    ssssssdadddsadsdsdsdsdsdsdsdsdsdsdsds

    Original Title

    Lecture_1_macro_event_m'sia_chart

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    This document contains 6 charts that analyze business cycles in Malaysia using coincident and leading economic indexes. Chart 3 shows that the coincident index tracks closely with GDP growth and indicates the timing of business cycle peaks and troughs. Charts 4 and 5 display the leading index, which leads the business cycle, and the lagging index, which lags the business cycle. The remaining charts provide closer analysis of specific recession and recovery periods in Malaysia.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    11 views8 pages

    Chart 3 The Coincident Index and The Malaysian Business Cycles

    Uploaded by

    smazadamha sulaiman
    This document contains 6 charts that analyze business cycles in Malaysia using coincident and leading economic indexes. Chart 3 shows that the coincident index tracks closely with GDP growth and indicates the timing of business cycle peaks and troughs. Charts 4 and 5 display the leading index, which leads the business cycle, and the lagging index, which lags the business cycle. The remaining charts provide closer analysis of specific recession and recovery periods in Malaysia.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 8

    Chart 3

    The Coincident Index and the Malaysian Business Cycles

    Coincident Index GDP


    (Deviation from Trend) (Annual Growth)
    T P T P T P T P T P T P T P T P T
    07/72 02/74 03/75 11/76 02/78 02/80 11/82 01/85 11/86 01/92 01/93 01/97 11/98 9/00 2/02 4/04 12/04
    110 15

    105 10

    100 5

    95 0

    90 -5

    85 -10

    80 -15
    01/72

    01/78

    01/82

    01/84

    01/88

    01/94

    01/00

    01/06
    01/70

    01/74

    01/76

    01/80

    01/86

    01/90

    01/92

    01/96

    01/98

    01/02

    01/04

    01/08
    Down Cycle Coincident Index GDP P Peak point T Trough point
    Chart 4
    The Leading Index

    Leading Index (Deviation from Trend)

    T P T P T P T P T P T P T P T P T
    7/72 2/74 3/75 11/76 2/78 2/80 11/82 1/85 11/86 01/92 01/93 1/97 1/99 9/00 2/02 4/04 12/04
    110 03/04
    01/74 10/90 (-1)
    (-1) (-15) 09/94 02/00
    02/80
    (0) (-18) (-6)
    01/84
    (-12)
    105 05/76
    (-6)

    100
    01/82
    (-10) 12/01
    02/78 02/93
    (-3)
    (0) (1)
    02/72 01/75 10/06
    95 (-5) (-2) (22)
    06/86 09/98
    (-5) (-2)

    90
    01/70

    01/72

    01/74
    01/75

    01/77

    01/79

    01/81

    01/84

    01/86

    01/88

    01/90
    01/91

    01/93

    01/95

    01/97
    01/98

    01/00

    01/02

    01/04

    01/07
    01/71

    01/73

    01/76

    01/78

    01/80

    01/82
    01/83

    01/85

    01/87

    01/89

    01/92

    01/94

    01/96

    01/99

    01/01

    01/03

    01/05
    01/06

    01/08
    P Peak point T Trough point (based on Coincident Index)
    Chart 5
    The Lagging Index

    Lagging Index (Deviation from Trend)

    T P T P T P T P T P T P T P T P T
    7/72 2/74 3/75 11/76 2/78 2/80 11/82 1/85 11/86 1/92 1/93 1/97 1/99 9/00 2/02 4/04 12/04
    115
    07/97
    (6)

    08/91
    110 (-5)

    01/74 07/81 01/02


    04/86
    (-1) (17) (16)
    (15)
    105

    100
    03/83
    03/72 (4)
    (-4)
    95
    03/87
    03/94 07/99
    (4)
    (14) (6)
    90
    01/71
    01/72
    01/73
    01/74
    01/75
    01/76
    01/77
    01/78
    01/79
    01/80
    01/81
    01/82
    01/83
    01/84
    01/85
    01/86
    01/87
    01/88
    01/89
    01/90
    01/91
    01/92
    01/93
    01/94
    01/95
    01/96
    01/97
    01/98
    01/99
    01/00
    01/01
    01/02
    01/03
    01/04
    01/05
    01/06
    01/07
    01/08
    P Peak point T Trough point (based on Coincident Index)
    Chart 6
    Tracking the 1998-1999 Recession and Recovery Phases
    Chart 7
    Tracking Recent Developments Due to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis
    APPENDIX IA
    Tracking the 1974-1975 Recession and Recovery Phases
    APPENDIX IB
    Tracking the 1985-1986 Recession and Recovery Phases

    You might also like