'E/dD͗ϴ͘͘ŝ͘

d͗ϭϭ͘ϵ͘ϮϬϮϭ

Background: As requested by the MCPS Trustees, the COVID task force has
discussed a set of metrics that could be used to make decisions regarding the COVID
mitigation strategies, specifically the face covering guidelines.

Simplified Decision Making Model:

The COVID task force will consider modifications to the COVID mitigation strategies (including
face coverings) when:
Indicator Goal AS OF: Goal and
11/8/21 Data Trend

#1 Vaccine Availability COVID Vaccine is widely Shots made Goal not

available and time has been available by met.
given to reach immunity for MCCHD on
5-11 y/o, approx 8 weeks after November 8
first shots made available in
Missoula County.

AND two of three of the following conditions have been met. (Note: These indicators could be
met concurrently during the 8-week waiting period associated with indicator #1.)
Indicator Goal AS OF: Goal and
10/29/21 Data Trend

#2 Incident Rate: < or equal to 20 for 14 IR = 65 Goal not

Daily new cases of COVID consecutive days met, trend
19, per 100K Missoula improving
residents, 7-day average.

#3 MCPS New Cases: < or equal to 30 for three out New Cases Goal not
The total number of new of four consecutive weeks = 48 met, trend
cases per week, total over improving
7 days, tallied each 30 would represent approx
Friday. 0.3% of total population and
an average of less than 5 new
cases per day.

#4 MCPS Close < or equal to 125 for three out Close Goal not
Contacts: The total of four consecutive weeks Contacts met, trend
number of students or = 169. improving
staff determined to be a 125 would represent approx
close contact to a 1.2% of total population and
confirmed COVID case, an average of less than 18
total over 7 days, tallied close contacts per day.
each Friday.
Once these conditions are met, the COVID task force will make a recommendation to modify
face coverings guidelines to the MCPS Board for consideration at their next available meeting.

59
Based on a recommendation from the Administration, the MCPS Board will have the final
decision regarding changes to the face covering guidelines as well as when to implement the
modified guidelines.

Rationale: How did we determine “goals?”

1. COVID vaccine available, 5-11 year olds, 8 weeks after first dose available in Missoula
a. There will be accessibility issues when released - due to demand. We assume
about 2 - 3 weeks before it is widely available to anyone that wants one.
b. The vaccine requires 5 weeks from the first dose before full immunity. First dose
+ 3 weeks, then second dose + 2 weeks before immunity.
2. Incident rate of 20 or less (As measured on MCCHD Data Page.)
a. Last spring, MCCHD used 25 as the goal, coupled with a 60% vaccination rate as
triggers for changes to masking. While the goal of 25 was met at the end of
January, the mask requirements were not lifted until May 10 after the county
reached the 60% vaccination rate.
b. 25 is still considered “high transmission” by the MCCHD and the CDC.
c. As we are not using vaccination rate in our decision making metrics, we chose a
lower Incident Rate.
3. MCPS Weekly new cases of 30 or less (As recorded on MCPS Summary Sheet)
a. We know that the Delta Variant has resulted in higher case counts, especially
among children. Comparing our current surge to last year’s highest surge, we
calculated a 155% increase in the number of positive cases tallied over 7 days.
b. Using this % increase, we adjusted last year’s case counts. During the period of
increase last year (Oct - Nov) the adjusted average number of MCPS cases per
week was 47.0. During the period of decline last year (Jan - March) the adjusted
average number of MCPS cases per week was 23.0.
c. Given these two averages, 35 was the median. However, 30 is closer to the
average number of cases during the period of decline.
4. MCPS Weekly number of students or staff considered close contacts, 125 or less. (As
recorded on the MCPS Summary Sheet.)
a. We know that the Delta Variant has resulted in higher numbers of close contacts.
Comparing our current surge to last year’s highest surge, we calculated a 59%
increase in the number of close contacts tallied over 7 days.
b. Using this % increase, we adjusted last year’s case counts. During the period of
increase last year (Oct - Nov) the adjusted average number of MCPS close
contacts per week was 219. During the period of decrease last year (Feb - April)
the adjusted average number of MCPS cases per week was 52.
c. The median of these two numbers is 135. Based on feedback from the COVID
committee, 125 seemed like a reasonable goal and would account for some of
the fluctuations that occur based on various student activities.

60