Climate Change Impacts Aurora Agri GDP

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY OF AURORA
A Thesis Submitted to the
Faculty of Arts and Letters
University of Santo Tomas
Espanya, Manila
In Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the
Degree A.B. Economics
REGPALA, ARRIANNE
ALIGAN, VERA LYN
Submitted to:
Mr. Andrew N. Gonzale

UNIVERSITY OF SANTO TOMAS FACULTY OF ARTS AND LETTERS PAGE 1
APPROVAL SHEET
This Thesis entitled
The Impact of Climate Change in the Agricultural Productivity of Aurora
prepared and submitted by
Aligan, Vera Lyn A.

Regpala, Arrianne
has been approved and accepted as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
degree of Bachelor of Arts major in Economics.
Andrew N. Gonzales
UNIVERSITY OF SANTO TOMAS GRADUATE SCHOOL PAGE
Adviser
PANEL OF EXAMINERS
Approved by the Research Tribunal on Oral Examination with a grade of _____

on April 12, 2018.
EMMANUEL J. LOPEZ Ph.D CARLOS L. MANAPAT DBA

Panel Member Panel Member
ASSOC. PROF. EMMANUEL J. LOPEZ Ph.D

Chair, Economics Department
MICHAEL ANTHONY C. VASCO, PH.D.

Dean
ACKNOWLDGEMENT
I dedicate this thesis paper to the following people who supported me
throughout the whole process of making it. To my mother, Ms. Maria Leonora E.
Regpala for financing my needs during my thesis and also being the coolest mom.
To my grandmothers, Purita E. Regpala and Maria F. Esguerra for cooking my
food every day and not forget to leave me foods when I got home late. To my
sister, Aisa Regpala for always asking how is my thesis and how is it going. To
my uncle, Florence Regpala, may you always watch over me in the heaven. To
Jason Joie H. Padilla who’s always there to cheer me whenever I become lazy to
this research paper and help me wake up in the morning by calling me.
To our thesis adviser, Mr. Andrew N. Gonzales for always passing by to
the library and checking our thesis.
To Doc. Carlos Manapat and Doc. E.J Lopez for answering our questions
whenever we come to the dead point of our thesis.
To our friends, Katrina, Rosa and Denine for always being there whenever
we need help. To my thesis partner, Veral Lyn A. Aligan, for being the best thesis
partner I can ever have. To my family, who is always there for me, I would say
thank you to guys for supporting me in this difficult situation, who is always
there to cheer me up whenever I feel like giving up, from the bottom of my heart,
I love you guys and thank you for everything.

To my friends, dorm mates, and everyone who is always there for us
through our ups and downs, from the bottom of my heart I would like to say thank
you.
To my thesis partner, Arrianne Regpala, who is always patient and
understanding. Who believed in me when I doubted myself. I would like to thank
you and I love you very much, I couldn’t ask for a better partner. I ask forgiveness
for my constant break downs and being somehow a burden.
To PAAAAAWER, my ever loving friends! You guys were there for us
when we needed help. We got each other’s back. We went to the same agony and
survived together. You are my sunshine, guys. Thank you for always cheering us
up and believing in us. To Katrina, Denise, Rosa, and Arrianne, you guys were my
anchor. Thank you and I love you!
Lastly to the Almighty God who made it possible for us to do this research
paper. We would like to say thank you for guiding us and giving us hope.
Doing this research paper wasn’t easy but we finished it. We made it!
Thank you and we love you! Carpe Diem!

Table of Contents
Title Page
Approval Sheet
Abstract
Dedication
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
I.1 Background of the Study
I.2 Statement of the Problem
I.3 Significance of the Study
I.4 Scope and Limitation

I.5 Hypothesis Statement
Chapter 2: Review of Related Literature
II.1. Journals
II.2. Theoretical Framework
II.2.1 Biophysical Crop Growth Stimulation Model
II.2.3. Hick’s Neutral Technical Change
II.2.4 Ramsey Rule
II.2.5. Granger Causality Test
II.3. Conceptual Framework
II.4. Definition of Terms
Chapter 3: Instruments and Methodology

III.1. Research Methods
III.2. Source of Data
III.3. Instrumentation
III.3.A. Ordinary Least Square
III.3.B. Chi-Square
III.3.C. Anova (F-test)
III.3.D. Breusch-Pagan
III.3.E. Ramsey RESET Test
III.3.F. Variance Inflation Factor
III.3.H. Durbin-Watson
Chapter 4: Results and Discussion
I. Regression and Ordinary Least Square
II. Testing the Hypothesis
III. Anova (F-Test)
IV. Heteroskedasticity Test
IV.A. Breusch-Pagan
V. Specification Error Test
V.A. Ramsey RESET Test
VI. Multicollinearity
VI.A. Tolerance
VI.B. Variance Inflation Factor

VII. Serial Correlation
VII.A. Durbin-Watson
VII.B. Breusch-Godfrey Test (P=1)
Chapter 5: Summary of Findings and Recommendation
I. Summary of Findings
II. Recommendation
References
I. Appendix
I.A. Appendix A: Data

I.B. Appendix B: Regression and Test Results
I.C. Appendix C. Tables
II. Bibliography
III. Curriculum Vitae

ABSTRACT
Title: The Impact of Climate Change in the Agricultural Productivity of Aurora
Researchers: Vera Lyn A. Aligan and Arrianne Regpala
School: University of Santo Tomas
Degree: Bachelor of Arts
Major: Economics
Year: Fourth
Adviser: Mr. Andrew N. Gonzales
Climate change plays a major factor when it comes to agricultural
production. In Southeast Asia, the Philippines is frequently visited and the hardest
hit by natural disasters, such as by typhoons, floods and droughts. The study is
about the relationship of climate change to the agricultural production in the
province of Aurora. It aims to establish a connection between the impact of
rainfall, size of plantation and temperature in the gross regional domestic product
and agricultural production (GDP). In providing solid grounds for the
econometric model, the researchers used different statistical tools such as R 2 Test
of Significance, Durbin Watson and Multicollinearity Test. The result of the tests
provides a clearer view on the relationship of the climate change and agricultural
production in such a way that the changes in the variables of climate change are
directly related to the agricultural production.
Key Words: Climate Change, Agriculture, Temperature, Rainfall, Gross
Regional Domestic Product

CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
I.1. Background of the Study
The negative impact of climate change in the agricultural sector cannot be
disregarded. In Southeast Asia, the Philippines is among those country that is
frequently visited and the hardest hit by natural disasters, such as by typhoons,
floods and droughts. These natural disasters have its negative effects on the
economic and environmental impacts on the affected areas and wherein the people
live. Furthermore, the agriculture and natural resources sectors are highly
vulnerable for they are continuously exposed to natural disasters and their
unwelcome consequences.
Climate change is an important factor in the agricultural productivity. Its
fundamental role of agriculture in the human welfare, concerns has been raised by
organizations and others regarding the potential effects of climate change on the
productivity on agriculture. Climate change is caused by the release of
“greenhouse” gases into the atmosphere which resulted to global warning. With
these problems, researchers are motivated to conduct a study regarding the
impacts of climate change on the agriculture productivity. The effects of climate
change on agriculture will result to conflict across the world. Determining on how
climate change will affect agriculture is complex; various effects are likely to
occur. The change in temperature as well as changes in rainfall patterns and the
increase of CO2 levels projected to accompany climate change will have
important effects on global agriculture, most especially in the tropical regions.
This paper focuses on the effect of climate change in the agricultural
production of Aurora. The aim of this study is to qualitatively analyze what is
possible with the help of the secondary data and information on the impact of
typhoons, floods, and drought in the Philippine agriculture. This research would
be beneficial to policymakers and development planners in such a way that they
can help create new technologies and strategies that will help mitigate the climate
change and problem of farmers.
I.2. Statement of the Problem

1. To know if the province is at risk due to the effect of climate change and
also its effects on the agricultural productions from the year 2007 to 2016.
2. To know whether carbon dioxide emission, amount of precipitation or
rainfall, and amount of inorganic fertilizer or ammophos have a significant
value to the study.
I.3. Significance of the Study
1. This research would be beneficial to policymakers and development
planners in such a way that they can help to create new technologies that
will help to mitigate the climate change and problem of farmers. Also they
can help to raise awareness to those who is related to this problem.

2. The farmers would also be beneficial in a way that they can address their
concerns and thus improvement and adaptation to a new agricultural
management in order to lessen the effect of climate change.
3. The community in general would be informed about the problem since
most of the agricultural is consumed by the public. They could take a step
in their own ways to mitigate the problem or even allocate the resources
properly.
4. The researchers would benefit to this because they can extend their
knowledge about the problem and by analyzing it, they would came up
with proper policy to it.

I.4. Scope and Limitations
This part of the paper focuses on the effect of climate change in the
agricultural production of Aurora. Using the data collected from 2007-2016 are
the following: carbon dioxide emission, amount of precipitation or rainfall,
amount of inorganic fertilizer used and gross regional domestic product. With
these the researchers would like to know the direct relationship between the given
variables. With the data gathered from different government agencies such as
PAG-ASA, Department of Agriculture, and Department of Environment and
Natural Resources. The researchers interpretation and ought to give policies that
will help to mitigate the effect of climate change.

I.5. Hypothesis Statement
The researchers objective is to determine if there is a significant relationship
between the dependent variable or gross regional domestic product and
independent variables such as temperature, amount of rainfall, amount of
inorganic fertilizer used (ammophos), area allotted for plantation and carbon
emission. Also, the researchers want to prove that there is no significant
relationship in temperature and gross regional domestic product by itself but when
combined with others, there is a significant value to it. Lastly, the researchers
want to prove that there is a causal link between the independent variables.
The following are the null and alternative hypotheses:

A. Ho: Rainfall, Ammophos and Carbon Emission is not significant to the
Gross Regional Domestic Product of Region 3.
B. Ho: Amount of Rainfall is not significant to Gross Regional Domestic
Product of Region 3.
C. Ho: Amount of inorganic fertilizer used (ammophos) is not significant to
the Gross Regional Domestic Product of Region 3.
D. Ho: Carbon Emission is not significant to the Gross Regional Domestic
CHAPTER 2
Review of Related Literature and Studies
This part of the research paper aims to provide more information on
helping to understand more about the impacts of climate change in the agricultural
production with the help of The Department of Agriculture and Department of
Environment and Natural Resources (DENR.) The research begins with the
summary of natural disasters that caused a huge impact on the agricultural
production, the effects, location, strength, and other factors that contributes the
disasters. In order to understand the situation, we must analyze the effectiveness
and efficiency of agricultural production in the region 3, a study of resources is

conduct with careful investigation of the disaster caused by the typhoon, the
allocation of resources and budget, the effects and cycle of these disasters, and the
observation of how the local government units response to these kinds of
calamities. The research also provides a short critique of other study which helps
to improve the study. Conclusion and recommendations will be provided in the
last part.
Agricultural sector is highly known for most country as a high
productivity growth, which is the key driver of structural transformation on
promoting long-term economic growth. However, due to the low agricultural
productivity development, it hindered the economic growth and employment
foundation in the Philippines, wherein agriculture, which signifies one-third of

employment remain as a key sector. Climate change has the capacity to damage
the crop productivity, affect the domestic agricultural production, consumption,
and the food security. Furthermore, the global impact of climate change could
stimulate changes in the international and national product prices that would
cause negative effects on both Philippines agriculture and the county’s overall
economy. The development of agricultural adaptation and growth strategies is a
major key to maintain a domestic agricultural production. Sustainment of the
agricultural production growth in helping achieve inclusive growth and poverty
reduction is one of the key goal for the Philippine government.
In order to discuss what OF

UNIVERSITY climate
SANTOchange is; the
TOMAS researchers SCHOOL
GRADUATE first identify PAGE
what is climate. NASA (2014) defined climate as the usual weather of a place. It
can be associated with seasons such as winter, summer, fall and autumn. As for
the climate change, it is the change in the usual climate found in a place. This
change of climate is not necessarily bad for the Earth, but the pace of this change
is quite alarming.
Hanif, Syed, Ahmad et al (2010) has confirmed in their study that climate
change is assessing the cost of land especially the agricultural farms. The benefits
of the adaptation of farmers to climate change in Punjab, Pakistan shows that
there is an increase in the long run net revenues.
Hertel, Thomas and Rosch (2010) presented the evidence of climate
change. The carbon dioxide emission in the atmosphere is rising as the

temperature rising too. According to the researchers, there is a connection
between poverty, agriculture and climate change. The impacts of poverty in
attempting to mitigate the climate change have a greater effect in the developing
countries. The mitigation programs depends on the extent that forestry and
agriculture would offer low mitigation opportunities and know which government
can utilize the resources to slow the rate of GHG emissions.
In the studies of Cruz, Dimalanta, Servando, and Yumul (2011), Climate
change can be loosely defined with Global warming, the abnormal warming of the
Earth. Its science can be perpetually fascinating, at the same time, intriguing and
alarming; it describes the intricacy of the Earth’s natural order, while serving us a
grim reminder of our futures that are at stake, which heavily depends on our
actions. Disasters are one of the major causes of human fatalities and suffering
among organisms, and it is imminent that the number of people affected is
continuously rising on unprecedented levels. A disaster can be defined as any
serious disturbance on societal functions involving widespread human, economic,
material or even environmental losses and impacts, which hinders the ability of
the affected to cope using its own resources. However it must be taken into
consideration that a hazard or an event should not be automatically deemed a
disaster; it depends on the locality’s response and coping mechanism.
Categorizing these disasters in regards with the type of triggering event can
produce distinctions. Usually, human-induced or artificial disasters include

technological events such as fires or transportation crashes, and societal events
such as acts of terrorism. Among natural disasters, there are numerous types of
triggering events: climatological (extreme temperatures), meteorological (storms),
and hydrological (inundation and storm surges), geophysical (earthquakes and
volcanic eruptions), and biological (epidemics). These disasters might also be a
result of a mix of cataclysmic events. International response comes in when
complex emergencies result to a breakdown of the afflicted society, representing a
severe humanitarian situation.
Archer, Oettle, Louw and et al (2008) documented and presented the effect
of climate change to the rooibos tea in South Africa. Climate change represented
by drought brings a severe Impact on the production of tea. It depicts that climate
change in South Africa would likely increase in the future. The application of soil
conservation and adjusting the ploughing season are some of the measures made
by the government.
Kelman (2011) stated that the main impact of climate change to Small
Island Developing State (SIDS) are the following: increase in the temps true of air
and sea, changes in precipitations that leads to frequent rain and storm and lastly
ocean acidification which in turn affects the ecosystem, freshwater and natural
resources.
Kumar (2007) assessed that there is a significant drop in the yields of
important crops such as rice and wheat under the climate change. On the other
hand, there is a lack of research on the impact of climate change to the sugarcane,
cotton and sunflower. He presented a Agri-economic TEV model and Ricardian
model to support his claim that by having to agricultural areas with the same
variables except rate of increase in temperature, people would pay extra dollar
just to slow the temperature of the fast increase agricultural area.
Mearns (2010) said that even there are a lot of researches about climate
change, there are still uncertainties to it. She pointed out that one problem in
quantifying the uncertainties of climate change is the diversity of information that
the researchers find useful. There are many approaches in finding the
uncertainties of climate change such as providing probalistic information and

presenting concrete scenarios that the researchers can choose from yet the
diversity of these research methods are still not clear.
Matthew and Hamill (2009) connected the technology to the climate
change, sustainable development and agricultural production. Climate change
would likely trigger technological and institutional innovations that may bolster
sustainable development; it will also amplify some of the challenges that have
slowed the pace of sustainable development. Climate change may also act to
increase the vulnerability of the poor to climate risk - especially if they respond to
climate stress by moving into fragile environments and onto marginal lands.
There is no doubt that people who are least advantaged from an economic
perspective often demonstrate remarkable capacities to cope, adapt and survive.

They change livelihoods, diversify their household incomes, move to cities or
across borders, place family members abroad who can send remittances, and
obtain micro-credit.
Tessa and Kurukulasuriya (2010) suggested that by facilitating the
innovation and diffusion of technology, the resilience of vulnerable communities
to climate change, variability and extreme would be greatly affected. Enhancing
the technical capacity of key stakeholders, specifically farmers and pastoralists, to
identify, disseminate and implement sustainable land management techniques to
restore degraded soils, stabilize land and improve agricultural productivity.
Another point of view from the book of “Crop Protection” by Christian

Bockstaller, It is said that “All three dimensions of sustainability economic, social
and environmental must be integrated into a holistic assessment framework in the
development of sustainable cropping systems. Numerous sustainability
assessment methods meet this requirement, but most of them handle only one type
of production system (arable crops, fruit or vegetables). We propose here a
common framework for sustainability assessment applicable to various types of
crop production. The DEXiPM model was designed for the ex-ante assessment of
innovative arable. However, CS was adapted to other production systems. This
common framework for sustainability assessment has several advantages. It can
facilitate communication between stakeholders involved in the development of
innovative production systems.”

Antle and Capalbo (2010) identify that there are various process involved
in generating economic, environmental, and social outcomes, including
agricultural production systems, transportation and marketing of commodities,
and transformation of commodities into food products. In a relatively certain
world - e.g. greenhouse vegetable production for sale into a stable market-
decision makers rationally choose systems based on maximum expected
efficiency.
In the study conducted by Sari Kovats and hosted by Ashley Ahearn. They
discussed about climate change and its effects on the potentially increasing of
child malnutrition due to the alarming food security. During the podcast, host
Ashley Ahearn discusses the connected between malnutrition and climate change.
The fairly high rates economic growth which is debate table for scholars is said to
be quite optimistic. A comparison between both the future and climate change was
said to have the same population growth and the same economic development if
no climate change would occur. A model was presented and its appreciable effect
of climate changes on stunting rates and so on the child health. A better review on
the study was said to help us understand between the environment, the climate
change, and the social determinants of malnutrition in different level of
households. Factors that would determine the household resilient to climate
change variability and the effects of the weather.

According to John Reilly (2004), economists in association with other
disciplines have done many studies on the effects of the projected climate change
on the US agriculture. Some review result from the 1999-2000 Us National
Assessment was conducted by a team of scientist (Reilly et al., 2002, USGCRP).
In addition to the study is the effect of climate change in the markets, this also
examined the possible implications of climate change on the environment
outcomes. Agricultural crop production is more likely to be affected by both
climate change and the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. The increase of CO2
affected the changes in temperature and precipitation have the potential to affect
crop yield either positively or negatively. Currently, the climate scientist uses a
Hadley model project which is much wetter climate than Canadian model. The
research paper also states the Agriculture-Climate Environment Interaction which
helps the readers understand more about the impact of climate change on the
Agriculture. Land and water use, is another factor used in the reasearch which
overall increase productivity which meant that less crop, pasture, and grazing land
was needed. The result of the economic modeling assessment presents a 5-35%
reduction in irrigated acres and in water demand for irrigation. Empirical analysis
was used for pesticide in relation between the developments of the climate using
historical observations. The derived relationship was used to stimulate future use
of pesticides in the economic model. Reilley emphasize the importance of soil
moisture which is a critical issue for agriculture. Soil moisture levels are
determined by an intricate interplay among precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and
soul drainage. It was said that precipitation would increase soil moisture. In the
statistical analysis of historical yield patterns and climate conditions, increased
precipitation was found to reduce yield variability. Thus ending his study, he
concluded that precipitation predictions of climate models remain highly
uncertain. Thus, confidence in these results still awaits more study with a wider
range of climate model scenarios.
According to Hugelius (2017), physical injuries inflicted on population by
natural calamities generally include lacerations, fractures, and associated
complications such as infections and the spread of communicable diseases.

Adding to that is an increased risk of non-traumatic problems such as heart
attacks (myocardial infarction), high blood pressures which were all reported.
Effects on health may depend on secondary effects caused by the disaster.
Widespread diasporas and displacements of survivors into crowded areas might
cause the high risk of communicable diseases present in that area. Moreover,
chronic conditions can also worsen such as diabetes due to lack of on-going
medication and routine support from the health care system of the locality
stricken. Likewise, most disasters usually cause fatalities and high mortality rates.
A common trepidation of disasters, if really fatal, can cause a high presence of
dead bodies or cadavers, which can constitute the risk of diseases. Technically,
natural calamities such as storms, severe inundations and storm surges are the
grounds for high rate of dead bodies. Foul stenches can emanate from them which
challenge the immune systems of the populations. Also, the psychological impact
of cadaver presence should not be taken lightly, as these can also increase further
trauma among survivors. Damage to infrastructure and medical health facilities is
frequent after the onset of disasters and it impairs the ability of the sector to tend
the medical needs of the stricken society.
In accordance to the book of “Journal of Cleaner Production” by Fu Chen
that “Crop production not only creates economic values, but also has ecological
functions. The carbon sink function of crops plays an important role in mitigating
climate changes. This paper collected and analyzed the carbon cost data of staple
crops in China, estimated the carbon sink and carbon source effects of farmlands,
and quantitatively evaluated the carbon inputs and outputs of crop production
systems. In conclusion, carbon footprints of crops in the six typical agriculture
regions somehow different, and the major crops production showed as carbon
sinks in general. The carbon sequestration of different crops in the same region
were significantly different, as well as the same crop in different regions. China’s
an occurrence of carbon sequestration effect showed in the farmland ecosystem:
the total of the annual nets of carbon sink of the three major are crops, rice, wheat,
and corn. The estimation was about 165.76 TgC, in which rice was the highest,
accounting for 48.71. This study provided important basis for policy formulation
and planning about the low-carbon agriculture development in China”

The utilization of the following independent variables deemed helpful in
the success of the research, which revolve around the primary natural disasters
that afflict the Philippines, typhoons (meteorological). The studies in the related
studies proved that these variables are the primary causes of impeded efficiency in
the delivery of rural health care in the Philippines.
The research study that was made by Robert Mendelsohn (2016) focuses
on the water sector in connection with climate change, adaptation, agriculture, and
water. Water is known to have already scarcity value in many watersheds. Over
seventeen countries currently withdraw more than half of their available
renewable water supply (FAO, 2016). The continuous growth of population and
GDP will only increase future water demand and raise the scarcity value of water.
Managing water more efficiently is already an issue in semi-arid regions and will
be ever more important in the future. Climate change is a potential problem that
would make it worse. The higher future temperatures will increase evaporation
and lowering water supply will also increase the demand for water irrigation,
cooling, and other uses (IPCC, 2014). If the society fails to adapt to this
challenges, some of analysts argue that there will be large damages from future
water scarcity (Titus, 1992). There are several mechanisms that can help lead to
efficient and right water allocation. Central authority can determine the value of
water in every use and simply allocate it to the highest value use. The process of
using market allocation water gives flexibility to water distribution. During the
time of drought, water would temporarily be diverted from low-valued uses. The
high-valued would retain their water. This short term flexibility is said to be more
important in the long term.
Climate change, food, water and population health in China a research
study conducted by Shilu Tong, Helen L Berry, Kristie Ebi, Hilary Bambrick,d
Wenbiao Hu, Donna Green, Elizabeth Hanna, Zhiqiang Wangg and Colin D
Butlerb talks about climate change appears to be increasing the frequency,
duration, and intensity of extreme weather events. Due to this calamity, such even
had caused substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and in the
population of health. Food, health system, and water are factors that are examples
of profound impact. The paper focuses on how climate change affects the food
system, human health and water in China. The research paper tackles about the
how climat change affect all four key dimensions of food supply: stability,
availability, access, and utilization. Food security and water security in China
have connection with a variety of anthropogenic, sociopolitical and policy factors,
which include the following: air pollution, industrialization, population growth,
urbanization and the incensement of affluence in the middle class in China and the
associated nutritional transition. However, it was said that urbanization has a
severe impact on the agricultural sector and agricultural cost in China which often
leads to the loss of fertile in the land. At the end of the research study, a policy
implication was stated saying there would be an increase in share of total primary
to renewable energy to 20% by 2030, a decrease in the carbon intensity of the
gross domestic product to 60-65% of the 2005 level and an increase of 4.5 billion
in China’s forest volume. If the proposition of the increase in the forest stock can
be achieved by sustainable reforestation that improves rural livelihoods and
ecosystem services, then there may be co-benefits such as improvements in small-
scale agricultural practices and in the local watershed management.
The year 2003 to 2014, it was recorded that about 140 million people
being affected by natural disaster; most of them only in Asia. The costs of these
calamities during the last decennium have been estimated at approximately 162
billion US dollars, yearly. In general, the impact of natural disasters on societies

depends on the relationship between the level of exposure, hazard, and the level
of vulnerability. The effects of these natural disasters can depend on numerous
determinants such as cultural, geographic, and economic; the existence of health
0situation of the inflicted, as well as the response of the locality and the type of
natural disaster.
And lastly this book discusses about the weather connection from the book
“Environmental Development” by WoldeamlakBewket. The Local climate
variability and crop production in the central highlands of Ethiopia “We used
monthly rainfall and temperature data from 132 points which represents a pixel of
10×10 km, which are reconstructions based on station records and the use of
meteorological satellite observations. The labor data of five major crops for the
main cropping season, which is locally known as Meher, were collected for the
time period of 2004–2013 for three districts (Baso Werana, Efratana Gidim and
Menz Gera Meder) from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA). The production
data are at the Enumeration Area (EA1) level and hence the best available dataset
on crop production. Therefore, there is no published local scale study, as is
attempted here, on local scale climate variability and crop production in the
country insofar as it is known to the authors. The labor production of four out of
five crops in Basona Werana and three out of five crops in both Efratana Gidim
and Menz Gera Meder, showed a declination over the period of study; the
regression’s conclusion indicates that the rainfall is the most important

determinant of production levels. It is therefore concluded that current climate
variability has a significant influence on crop production in the area and any of
the unfavorable change in the local climate in the near future will have a serious
implications for household level food security. Efforts to adapt to the ongoing
climate change should begin from tackling the current climate variability and take
a climate risk management approach for adapting to the ongoing climate change.”
II.2. Theoretical Framework
There are various of theories that can be used on knowing the relationship
between climate change, agriculture, poverty and employment.
II.2.1. Biophysical Crop Growth Simulation Model

The first theory is about climate change. Hertel and Rosch (2010)
described Biophysical Crop Growth Simulation Model as a process-based
model that uses data requirements such as functions of soils, water
availability, and temperature and soil nitrogen dynamics at the level of an
individual field in stimulating the crop growth. Other factors such as
choice of variety, planting date, row spacing and irrigation and nitrogen
fertilizer application amounts and timing were also used for the model.
This model is fitted for the work because the stimulation of growth by
stage is recorded so that the daily temperature data can be utilized and the
impact of extreme events on yields can be assessed. The ability of the

users to specify crop varieties and fertilizer applications, as well as
irrigation availability, all of which are critical elements in any climate
adaptation strategy is also tackled in the model.
II.2.2. Ricardian Theory
Another theory is the Hedonic approach or commonly known as
Ricardian Theory. According to Mendelsohn (2009), this theory
recognizes that farmers will vary the mix of activities to choose the one
yielding the highest return on any given parcel of land. By associating
climatic variation in a cross section of data with variation in land values, it
will aim to estimate the long run economic value of climate change and
hence the impact of changes in climate. The theory relies on two

assumptions. First is that there is a long run equilibrium in factor markets
and second there is no adjustment cost such that land rents fully reflect the
value of climate at any given location.
II.2.3. Hick’s Neutral Technical Change
Kumar (2007) presented an econometric model for the
uncertainties of the climate change in the future and that is Hick’s neutral
technical change. In accordance to this econometric model, an invention
that raises the marginal productivity of labor and capital in same
proportion. Thus, an occurrence in the technical change is neutral if the
ratio of marginal product of capital to that of labor remains unchanged at

constant capital labor ratio. It can be expressed in an equation:
Q = Q (t) f (K, L)
Where: Q — Total output
K — Inputs of capital
L — Inputs of labour
With the given variables, the Q would be the total output of
farmers, K would be the input capital such as the land area, price of crops
and other necessary factors for planting and L for the inputs of labour such
as time spent for planting, the duration of harvesting and crop and other
labors.
II.2.4. Ramsey Rule
Dobes, Jotzo and Stern (2014) stated another theory for economic
implementation, the Ramsey Rule. It state that the dollar discount rate is
the sum of the pure of time preference and the rate at which future
generations income should be discounted in order to account for the fact
that they are expected to be richer than today. In this sense, when a person
tries to conserve the land for climate change, he will get a total benefit of
being richer than what they have today.
II.2.5. Granger Causality Test
For the econometric model of this study, the researchers decided to
use the Granger Causality Test. According to Granger (1969) it is a
“statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is
useful in forecasting another.” To Stern and Kauffman (1998), Granger
Causality test are based on the notion of predictability. If past values of X
improve forecasts of Y given all relevant past information on Y including
its own lagged values, X Granger causes Y. This implies that Y is the
dependent variable and X an independent variable. The test is carried out

by jointly restricting the coefficients of the lagged values of X to zero in
the equation explaining Y in a vector auto regression (VAR) model. For
the sake of this research, the researchers made two econometric models:
first is for the economic implication of climate change and second is for
the effect of climate change to agriculture. The economic implication of
climate change is as follows:
GRDP= Am+R+C02
Where GDRP is the gross regional domestic product of region
three in agricultural sector, Am is the ammophos or the inorganic fertilizer

used, R is the total amount of rainfall and C0 2 is the carbon emmision
footprint of the Philippines. These data were gather from 2007-2016.
II.3. Conceptual Framework
Input Process Output

 Gross regional
The researchers
domestic product would use data
 Amount of gathering such in
government
rainfall agencies such as Knowing what are
 Carbon PAG-ASA, DENR the effects of
and PSA. They climate change to
emission would use different the agricultural
 Amount of statiscal tools to production
determine the
inorganic relationship
fertilizer used between those
variables.
(ammophos).
The researchers would like to present the effect of climate change by
giving the data used such as gross regional domestic product, amount of rainfall,
carbon emission and amount of inorganic fertilizer used (ammophos) giving the
variables would be used. In the first box the inputs of data were given such as so
that it will be easy to identify what is the information of the researchers to the
topic. These indicators reflect the economic and agricultural effect of climate
change.
With the use of both qualitative and quantitative method, the researchers
will utilize the data required to the topic. Some of it was needed to be collected in
agencies and institutions.

After all the data were gathered and tested, the researches would know the
answers to their problems and interpret the result in order to give a meaningful
government policy.
II.4. Definition of Terms
 Climate is the usual weather of a place. It can be associated with
seasons such as winter, summer, fall and autumn. It would take at least
a hundred of years before it change.
 Climate change is the change in global climate patterns attributed
largely to the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide content in the
atmosphere. This could mean a change of how much rain or even the
change in temperature a certain place get can for a month or year.

 Precipitation is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water
vapor that falls under gravity. It could be rain, ice pallets, diamond
dust or freezing rain.
 Carbon emission is the release of carbon into atmosphere and is often
associated with greenhouse gases and with the burning of fossil fuels
like natural gas, crude oil and coal.
 Gross Regional Domestic Product measure the growth of the
region’s economy. The GRDP used in the data is from the agriculture,
fishery and forestry.
 Agriculture is a practice of science in the farming sector, which

including cultivation of the soil for the growing crops and the rearing
of animals to provide food, wool, etc. According to Rubenstein (2003),
it is the deliberate effort to modify a portion of Earth's surface through
the cultivation of crops and the raising of livestock for sustenance or
economic gain.
 Biophysical Crop Growth Simulation Model as a process-based
model that uses data requirements such as functions of soils, water
availability, and temperature and soil nitrogen dynamics at the level of
an individual field in stimulating the crop growth.
 Ricardian Theory recognizes that farmers will vary the mix of
activities to choose the one yielding the highest return on any given
parcel of land. By associating climatic variation in a cross section of
data with variation in land values, it will aim to estimate the long run
economic value of climate change and hence the impact of changes in
climate.
 Hick’s Neutral Technical Change is an econometric model, an
invention which raises the marginal productivity of labour and capital
in same proportion.
 Ramsey Rule state that the dollar discount rate is the sum of the pure
of time preference and the rate at which future generations income
should be discounted in order to account for the fact that they are
expected to be richer than today.
CHAPTER III
Methodology of the Study
III.1. Methodology
The researchers used a descriptive method to conduct the study. There was
an error in the variables in the effect of climate change in the agricultural sector
that cannot be precisely measured in short span of period. In order to get what the
study desires to achieve, it needs a lot of qualitative data. In conclusion, the
researchers suggest that this method is the best fit for the research.
One type of data was used in the study due to the short period of time. The
secondary data was derived from the findings which was stated in the published
documents and related literature in order to the address the problem. These were
based from the recent literatures that are related to climate change in agricultural
production in the Philippines. In terms of approach, the researched used
qualitative and quantitative approach. As for interrelating the numerical findings
and data obtained, the researchers used quantitative approach.
III.2. Sources of Data
The researchers got the data from the various government agencies such as
Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Philippine Atmospheric
Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration or PAGASA and
Philippine Statistical Authority. As for the related books, journals and theses, the
researchers utilized the Miguel de Benavides Library and news articles.

III.3. Instrumentation
III.3.A. Ordinary Least Square
The OLS depends on the number of explanatory variables. The
method corresponds to minimize the sum of the square difference between
predicted values and the observed.
Y = β0 + Σj=1..p βjXj + ε
III.3.B. Chi-Square
The Chi-square will be likewise used as another statistical
tool in determining the overall significant relationship among independent
and dependent variables.

III.3.C. Anova (F-test)
Analysis of Variance F-test or also known as ANOVA F-Test is use
to test the significance of the econometric model and to identify if it is a good fit.
The F-statistic is simply a ratio of two variances. Variances are a measure of how
far the data are scattered from the mean. The larger the value represent, the
greater the dispersion.

III.3.D. Breusch-Pagan
Breush-Pagan test in statistics is used for heteroskedasticty in
linear regression model. It shows whether the variance of the said error from
regression is dependent on the values of the independent variables. In conclusion,
heteroskedascity is present.
III.3.E. Ramsey RESET Test
It was formulated in the context of a statistical model that a
specification error means that there is at least one incorrect in the key
features or assumptions of the model. In result to this, the estimation of the
model may present conclude that the findings are incorrect or misleading.
y = β0 + β1x1 + · · · + βk xk + u
III.3.F. Variance Inflation Factor

A variance inflation factor (VIF) detects multicollinearity in the
regression analysis. WIF are usually calculated by software, as part of a
regression analysis. It is calculated by taking a predictor, and regressing it against
every other predictor in the model. This gives you the R-squared values which can
be inserted into the VIF formula.
III.3.H. Durbin- Watson
Durbin Watson is used to detect presence of autocorrelation at lag

1 residuals from the regression analysis. This is applied to statistic and to
the residuals from least squares regression, and develops a bound test for
the null hypothesis that serially uncorrelated against alternatives.

CHAPTER IV
Presentation, Analysis, and Interpretation of Data
IV. 1. Regression and Ordinary Least Square
The researchers used Microsoft Excel, SPSS and Eviews to get the
regression of the variables. They used the Gross Regional Domestic Product as
their dependent variable and the number of ammophos, number of rainfall in
millimeter, and carbon emission per capita as the independent variables. In getting
the relationship between the variables and their correlations to the research, the
researchers used Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient Formula, Chi-
Square, White Test, Durbin-Watson, Multicollinearity Test, Ramsey RESET

Specification Error Test and Heteroskedasticity Test.
The values generated from Microsoft Excel were compared with the
Values obtained using EVIEWS. Both of the programs used revealed the same
values for the Beta Coefficients, Standard Error, t-statistic and probability. The
Beta Coefficient of the constant simply indicates that the intercept of the
econometric model using the data gathered from the agricultural production is
-2.353615408. If all of the variables are zero, then the value of Y or the Gross
regional domestic product is -2.353615408. On the other hand, an increase in the
carbon emission would result to the decrease in the gross regional domestic
product by 1.371837673. As it was seen in the result of the beta coefficient, an
additional ammophos was used in cultivating crops that would contribute to

0.2509254 and a decrease in the gross regional domestic product. The number of
rainfall is also negatively affecting the gross regional domestic product such that
an additional rainfall would decrease the total gross regional domestic product by
0.081736337.
The regression equation for this research would be:
Y=-2.353615408 +1.371837673C02+0.2509254ammo+0.081736337rf
From which, according to the ordinary least square, in every increase of
C02, there would be a decrease of agricultural production. Also, in every increase

of ammophos, the agricultural production would decrease as with the increase in
the number of ammophos used.
IV.2. Testing the Hypothesis
The researchers used the Chi-square goodness of fit to determine the
correlations of the independent variables to dependent variable and to test the
hypotheses. The confidence level used was 95% and a 0.05 p-value in relation to
the research and its hypothesis testing. The rule was to accept the null hypothesis
if the P-Value is greater than or equal to 0.05 (P-value ≥ 0.05) and reject the
alternative hypothesis. However, the null hypotheses would be rejected if the P-
Value is less than the 0.05 (P-value<0.05) thus accepting the alternative
hypothesis. In Appendix B.1 the Microsoft Excel data sheet was presented for the
P-values of each independent variables.
For the first hypothesis, the null hypothesis is that rainfall, Ammophos and
Carbon Emission are not significant to the Gross Regional Domestic Product of
Region 3. As for the alternative hypothesis, Rainfall, Ammophos and Carbon
Emission are significant to the Gross Regional Domestic Product of Region.
Using the Chi-square goodness of fit, the researchers concluded that Rainfall,
Ammophos and Carbon Emission are significant to the study.
Ho: Rainfall, Ammophos and Carbon Emission is not significant to the

Ha: Rainfall, Ammophos and Carbon Emission is significant to the Gross
Regional Domestic Product of Region
α= 0.05
P-Value= 0.000858074
0.000858074< 0.05
Therefore: Reject the Null Hypothesis.
For the second hypothesis, the null hypothesis is the amount of rainfall not
significant to Gross Regional Domestic Product of Region 3 and the alternative
hypothesis is amount of Rainfall is significant to the Gross Regional Domestic
Product of Region 3. Using again Chi-square goodness of fit, the researchers
concluded that rainfall is significant to the study.

Ho: Amount of Rainfall is not significant to Gross Regional Domestic
Ha: Amount of Rainfall is significant to the Gross Regional Domestic
α= 0.05
P-Value= 0.019835766
0.019835766< 0.05
Therefore: Reject the Null Hypothesis.
For the third hypothesis, the null hypothesis is the amount of inorganic
fertilizer used (ammophos) is not significant to the Gross Regional Domestic
Product of Region 3 and the alternative hypothesis is the amount of inorganic
fertilizer used (ammophos) is significant to the Gross Regional Domestic Product
of Region 3. Using again Chi-square goodness of fit, the researchers concluded
that inorganice fertilizer is in fact significant to the study.
Ho: Amount of inorganic fertilizer used (ammophos) is not significant to
the Gross Regional Domestic Product of Region 3.
Ha: Amount of inorganic fertilizer used (ammophos) is significant to the
α= 0.05
P-Value= 0.007445204
0.007445204< 0.05
Therefore: Reject the null hypothesis.
As for the last hypothesis, the null hypothesis is Carbon Emission is not
significant to the Gross Regional Domestic Product of Region 3 and the
alternative hypothesis is Carbon Emission is significant to Gross Regional
Domestic Product of Region 3. With the use of Chi-square goodness of fit, the
researchers concluded that Carbon Emission is significant to the study.
Ho: Carbon Emission is not significant to the Gross Regional Domestic
Ha: Carbon Emission is significant to Gross Regional Domestic Product of

Region 3.
α= 0.05
P-Value= 0.000517473
0.000517473< 0.05
Therefore: Reject the null hypothesis.
IV.3. ANOVA (F-Test)
The researchers used Anova specifically F-Test to test whether to know if
the econometric model has an overall fit. Also it aims to know if the significant of
the differences in the independent variables have a significant relationship. The F
critical value is needed for the testing and the also the F value. To know the F
critical value in α=0.05, the table in Appendix C.1 is given. As for the F-Value, it
was already computed in the Microsoft Excel and Eviews. The researchers
concluded that the means of the three independent variables does have significant
relationship.
H0: μ1 = μ2 = μ3
H1: The means are not all equal
Degrees of Freedom:
k-1= 3-1= 2
N-k+1= 10-3+1= 8
F-critical value in α=0.05 is 4.4590
F-value is 61.02393917
61.02393917> 4.4590
Therefore: Reject null hypothesis.
IV.4. Heteroskedasticity Test
IV. A. Breusch-Pagan:
To test the heteroskedasticity of the econometric model, the
researchers used the Breusch-Pagan test. Breusch-Pagan test was conducted using
Eviews. The null hypothesis for this is there is a constant variance and the
alternative is there is a heteroskedasticity.If the prob chi-square is greater than or
equal to the chi-square critical, the null hypothesis must be rejected. But if the
prob chi-square is less than the chi-square critical, the null hypothesis must be
accepted and the alternative hypothesis must be rejected. Based on Table B.3, the
researchers concluded that there is no heteroskedasticity in the regression. The
visual representation is in the Appendix Table B.4.
H0: No Heteroskedasticity
Ha: Heteroskedasticity
Prob Chi Square= 0.1168
Chi-square critical:
Degrees of Freedom: 10
Chi-square critical value= 18.31
18.31>0.1168
Therefore: Accept Null Hypothesis.
IV.5. Specification Error Test
IV.5.A. Ramsey RESET Test
This test was conducted by using Eviews to test whether the
equation model has any specification errors such as omitted or irrelevant variable.
The given error can happen if the independent variables show correlation to the
error terms. The variables used in this test are GRDP, Carbon Emission,
Ammophos and Rainfall. The rule was to accept the null hypothesis if the P-
Valuein F-stat is greater than or equal to 0.05 (P-value ≥ 0.05) and reject the
alternative hypothesis. However, the null hypotheses would be rejected if the P-
Value in F-stat is less than the 0.05 (P-value<0.05) thus accepting the alternative
hypothesis. Based on the outcome of Ramsey RESET test in B.5, the p-value of
the Ramsey Reset Test are all greater than alpha which means that the alternative
hypothesis must be accepted thus there is a specification error.
H0= There is no specification error.
Ha= There is a specification error.
α=0.05
P-value in F-stat= 0.0941
0.0941>0.05
Therefore: Reject Null Hypothesis.
IV.6. Multicollinearity
The researchers used tolerance stat and variance inflation factor to know if
there is a multicollinearity in the equation. Having a multicollinearity in the
equation would mean that there is a strong relationship between the indpendent
variables. It would mean that if one independent variable would be deleted, the
whole equation would change drastically.
IV.6.A. Tolerance
The tolerance interval is one way to measure the multicollinearity.
The researchers used SPSS to measure the tolerance of the equation. By acquiring
the tolerance interval, the individual dependent variables can be measured in
accordance to the independent variable and its multicollinearity to this variable.
The tolerance stat should be greater than 0.1 in order to reject that there is a
problematic multicollinearity in the equation. As what can see in table B.6, all
tolerance interval is greater than 0.1, therefore there is no multicollinearity in the
equation.
0.575>0.1
0.520>0.1
0.346>0.1
IV.6.B. Variance Inflation Factor
Variance Inflation Factor is another way to measure
multicollinearity. It quantifies how much the variance is inflated in the equation.
The value of VIF should be less than 10 in order to reject that there is a
problematic multicollinearity in the equation. As what can see in table B.6, all
tolerance interval is less than 10, therefore there is no multicollinearity in the
equation.
1.738<10
1.924<10
2.891<10
IV.7. Serial Correlation
The researchers used Serial Correlation or Autocorrelation to determine
the relationship of observations of the independent variables in itself over
different time intervals.

IV.7.A. Durbin- Watson
Durbin Watson test is one way to measure the serial correlation. It
test the availability of the first specific type of serial correlation or the AR(1). The
decision rule for this test is to accept the null hypothesis if d stat is less than or
equal to 0, accept alternative hypothesis is d stat is greater than 0 and inconclusive
if 0.53 is less than or equal to d stat and less than or equal to 2.02. Based on the
test made by the researchers, it was concluded that the result is inconclusive.
Therefore, the researchers would use another test to know if there is a serial
correlation.
H0 = no first order autocorrelation.

H1 = first order correlation exists.
The upper and lower value of D-stat is in the Durbin Watson table at table
C.3.
Ud=2.02
Ld=0.53
The d-stat computed in the SPSS is 1.446
D-Stat= 1.446
0.53<1.446<2.02
Therefore: It is inconclusive.
IV.7.B. Breusch-Godfrey Test (P=1)
Another way to validate the serial correlation of the equation is
through Breusch-Godfrey. Using the Eviews, the researchers were able to
compute the Probability of Chi-Square. The null hypothesis should be reject if
Prob.Chi squared is greater than or equal to the P critical value from the Table C.4
but accept it if Prob.Chi squared is less than P critical value. Based on the test,
there is no serial correlation.
H0: There is no serial correlation
H1: There is first order serial correlation

α=0.05
P=1
Critical Value= 1.812
Prob. Chi Squared= 0.3842
0.3842<1.812
Therefore: Accept the null hypothesis.

CHAPTER 5
Conclusion and Recommendations
The aim of the study is to know the impact of climate change in the
province of Aurora and its effects on the agricultural productions from the year
2007 to 2016. Using carbon dioxide emission, amount of precipitation or rainfall,
and amount of inorganic fertilizer or ammophos as the instrument to measure the
impact of climate change. Other than that, gross regional domestic product as the
measure to the change in agricultural production. Using these different variables,
the researchers would like to know whether they have a significant value to the
study.
I. Conclusion of findings
The salient findings of the study are the following:
A. Climate Change affects the Agricultural Production.
Although the data is not enough to show the whole effect of
climate change in the agricultural production, it can be said that the variables and
their data used to this study show a negative relationship between the two given
topics. As the variables of climate change increase, the agricultural production
decreased. The variables used in the climate change such as the amount of
rainfall, amount of inorganic fertilizer used and the total carbon emission per
capita are the only variables that respond to the change of agricultural production
in Aurora.
B. Amount of Rainfall Can Aggregate or Mitigate the Declining Decrease
of Agricultural Production.
According to the tests conducted by the researchers, the amounts
of rainfall affect the agricultural production. Like what was said in the journals
presented from the past Chapter Two, amount of rainfall can be a good thing or a
bad thing for the farmer. Too much rainfall can drown the crops and eventually
kill it but lack of it can also cause dehydration to crops. A right amount of rainfall
can be a blessing to farmers since they will have free water for their crops and
lessen their expense. Through the research, an increase of rainfall, though not that
big, can decrease the agricultural production. With that being said, the rainfall
should always be monitored by the PAG-ASA to avoid too much of it. Also, the
people should be more careful in dealing with the nature especially throwing
garbage at the rivers and other water bodies to avoid any acidic rains.
C. Amount of Ammophos can affect the crops.
Ammophos is a kind of inorganic fertilizer. This can be bought in any part
of Aurora as it is necessary for the crops. The farmers, instead of using organic
fertilizers, choose not to do so because aside from it takes time to decompose the
materials needed for organic fertilizer, it will also cause them more. But little they
did know that this type of fertilizer affect their crop production. Like what the
researchers conclude, an increase of this fertilizer can decrease the agricultural
production. Even though it is just a little amount of decrease, this can be bad for
the poor farmers who live with this job. The government should promote organic
fertilizer and try to help the farmers by subsidizing funds for it to help reduce the
climate change.
C. Change in Carbon Change will help to flourish the Agricultural
Production of
Aurora.
The leading variable of climate change is no other than Carbon Emission.
This variable was from the carbon in the Philippines. Aside from Philippines,
almost all countries around the world suffer from this problem. By having too
much of this gas cannot only affect the crops but also the people. Like what the
researchers find out from this research, the small amount of change of this gas can
affect largely to the Agricultural Production of Aurora. So to mitigate this issue,
the researchers recommend helping the environment by not producing a lot of
hazardous gasses from the cars and factories and planting a lot of trees since these
two are the two main problem of the country in general; less trees around the
cities and more factories.
II. Recommendation
a) For the Government
It would be highly recommended for the government to take climate
change as a serious problem and focus on addressing to solve this. It is crucial to
examine the actions and policies of the government, especially in the Department
of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), in agricultural sector, mining
and forestry, and address climate change in terms of both mitigation and
adaptation. Improving and integrating climate change adaptation and disaster risk
reduction and implement them synergistically and effectively.
b) Other researchers.
Results and discussions in this study are advantageous to researchers who
are pursuing studies within this realm. It can serve as a possible research literature
study, which can be further motivated by replicating it with addition of other
variables and different data sources. Future researchers should find a new way to
tackle and to helpUNIVERSITY OF SANTO

improve the study TOMAS
on addressing theGRADUATE SCHOOL
impacts of climate change PAGE
on the agricultural production. Working together and contributing ideas on how
and what could be done can help address this problem.
c) Laborers and Farmers
In view of the results of the study, there is a need to partake seminars on
Contingency Logistic Plan to create awareness and prepare farmers relative to
climate change. Laborers and farmers should be trained on how to use new
technologies on crop handling, various seed selection, environment
bioremediations, accurate weather forecasting, and the adaption of crops to certain
chemicals. Farmers participate on seminars in sales handling, prioritization of
fund and farm management to increase crop production. In addition to this, the
researchers instill further knowledge on emergency first response in order to be

aware of possible modern solutions that can help in managing the effects of
calamities.
d) Local Government Units (LGUs).
Local government units have a major role in securing its citizens during
times of crisis, and this research can instill further knowledge on impacts of
climate change on the agricultural production in order to be aware of possible
modern solutions that can help in managing the effects of calamities and its effect
on the economic productivity. Local unit should discuss more what do to in case
of unexpected calamities. Seminars should be held in order to give knowledge to
the local citizens UNIVERSITY

and laborers. OF SANTO TOMAS GRADUATE SCHOOL PAGE
Appendix
Appendix A: Data:
Table A.1
Appendix B: Regression and Test Results
Table B.1
Table B.2
Table B.3
Table B.4
Table B.5

Table B.6
Table B.7
Table B.8
Appendix C. Tables
Table C.1
Table C.2
Table.C.3
Table.C.4
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Economic EffectsUNIVERSITY OF SANTO

of Climate change on WorldTOMAS GRADUATE SCHOOL
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Curriculum Vitae
ARRIANNE REGPALA
91 Amang Rodriguez Avenue Manggahan,
Pasig City, NCR Philippines 1750
Phone: +639153173289
E-Mail: arrianneregpala@gmail.com
SKILLS:
• Excellent Computer Skills (MS word, MS PowerPoint, MS Excel and MS
Publisher)
• Knowledgeable in Adobe Photoshop, Eviews, Cashiering Application, and
SPSS Statistics.
• Good communication skills in both oral and written English.
• Excellent leadership skills and is able to manage, to give, and to follow
instructions.
• Able to plan and organize activities effectively.
• Can manage time effectively, prioritizing task and able to work to
deadlines.
• Recognizes and respect different perspective and open to ideas and vies of
others.
• Languages: Fluent in English and Tagalog. Basic (reading and writing)
Spanish
EDUCATION:
University of Santo Tomas 2014 - Present
Tertiary – Bachelor of Arts in Economics
Pasig Catholic College 2010 - 2014
Secondary
SEMINARS:
The Big Data: A Look on the Economic of Analytics in the Philippine Perspective
October 26, 2017
WARAWI: An Economic Outlook After the Marawi Siege
October
25, 2017
CENTimo: UST-AES Plenary on Investment September 2017
Our Big Push: Alleviating Indigence by Promoting Zero Poverty February 2017
DU30NOMICS: An Outlook on the Economic Platform of the Duterte
Administration November 2016
Work, Work, Work: Redefining the Philippine Labor Market October 2016
EXTRA-CURRICULAR INVOLVEMENT
Artlets Economic Society
Member 2014 – Present
Becarios De Santo Tomas

Member 2015- Present
Junior Philippine Economic Society
Working Scholar
2015-2018
VERA LYN A. ALIGAN
958 Purok #6, Barriada, Legazpi City

Phone: +639173124510
E-Mail: Vera_lyn5497@yahoo.com
SKILLS:
• Proficient Computer Skills (MS word, MS PowerPoint, and MS Excel)
• Good communication skills in both oral and written English.
• Can manage time effectively, prioritizing task and able to work to
deadlines.
• Recognizes and respect different perspective and open to ideas and vies of
others.
• Languages: Fluent in English and Tagalog.
EDUCATION:
University of Santo Tomas 2014 - Present
Tertiary – Bachelor of Arts in Economics
Bicol University 2010 - 2014
Secondary
SEMINARS:
The Big Data: A Look on the Economic of Analytics in the Philippine Perspective
October
26, 2017
WARAWI: An Economic Outlook After the Marawi Siege October 25, 2017
CENTimo: UST-AES Plenary on Investment September 2017
Our Big Push: Alleviating Indigence by Promoting Zero Poverty February 2017
HULT Prize at UST (Organizing Committee) Nov – Dec 2016
Kaalaman sa Klima at Kalikasan November 2016
DU30NOMICS: An Outlook on the Economic Platform of the Duterte
Administration November 2016

Work, Work, Work: Redefining the Philippine Labor Market October 2016
COMACH LIFT: A Leadership and Risk Taking Forum September 2016
EXTRA-CURRICULAR INVOLVEMENT
Artlets Economic Society
Junior Philippine Economic Society
Annyeong Tomasino
Member 2014 – 2016

UST CFC-YFC
UST Community Achievers Association
Junior Officer 2014 – 2017

Climate Change Impacts Aurora Agri GDP

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Climate Change Impacts Aurora Agri GDP

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THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE AGRICULTURAL

A Thesis Submitted to the

Faculty of Arts and Letters

University of Santo Tomas

of the Requirements for the

Degree A.B. Economics

ALIGAN, VERA LYN

Mr. Andrew N. Gonzale

This Thesis entitled

The Impact of Climate Change in the Agricultural Productivity of Aurora

prepared and submitted by

Aligan, Vera Lyn A.

Approved by the Research Tribunal on Oral Examination with a grade of _____

EMMANUEL J. LOPEZ Ph.D CARLOS L. MANAPAT DBA

ASSOC. PROF. EMMANUEL J. LOPEZ Ph.D

MICHAEL ANTHONY C. VASCO, PH.D.

I dedicate this thesis paper to the following people who supported me

To my grandmothers, Purita E. Regpala and Maria F. Esguerra for cooking my

the library and checking our thesis.

whenever we come to the dead point of our thesis.

I love you guys and thank you for everything.

To my friends, dorm mates, and everyone who is always there for us

To my thesis partner, Arrianne Regpala, who is always patient and

understanding. Who believed in me when I doubted myself. I would like to thank

for my constant break downs and being somehow a burden.

To PAAAAAWER, my ever loving friends! You guys were there for us

anchor. Thank you and I love you!

Thank you and we love you! Carpe Diem!

I.1 Background of the Study

I.2 Statement of the Problem

I.3 Significance of the Study

I.4 Scope and Limitation

Chapter 2: Review of Related Literature

II.2. Theoretical Framework

II.2.1 Biophysical Crop Growth Stimulation Model

II.2.3. Hick’s Neutral Technical Change

II.2.4 Ramsey Rule

II.2.5. Granger Causality Test

II.3. Conceptual Framework

II.4. Definition of Terms

Chapter 3: Instruments and Methodology

III.1. Research Methods

III.2. Source of Data

III.3.A. Ordinary Least Square

III.3.C. Anova (F-test)

III.3.E. Ramsey RESET Test

III.3.F. Variance Inflation Factor

I. Regression and Ordinary Least Square

II. Testing the Hypothesis

III. Anova (F-Test)

IV. Heteroskedasticity Test

V. Specification Error Test

V.A. Ramsey RESET Test

VI.B. Variance Inflation Factor

VII. Serial Correlation

VII.B. Breusch-Godfrey Test (P=1)

Chapter 5: Summary of Findings and Recommendation

I.A. Appendix A: Data

I.C. Appendix C. Tables

III. Curriculum Vitae

Title: The Impact of Climate Change in the Agricultural Productivity of Aurora

Researchers: Vera Lyn A. Aligan and Arrianne Regpala

School: University of Santo Tomas