Vulnerability and risk

produced by natural hazards

Assoc. prof. dr. eng. Cristian Arion

www.utcb.ro Bucharest
Contact:
Cristian.arion@utcb.ro
Office location: FCCIA, 4th floor, room IV3 (JICA office)
Availability: daily from 9AM to 3PM
http://ccers.utcb.ro/

Examination: an on-line questionnaire

Duration: 30 minutes
Contents: questions with multiple choices of answer (you will select the
correct one) and questions with answer as a free text (to be filled-in from
your keyboard directly in the questionnaire screen).
Grade: 40% (10% presence and 30%seminar/course activity) + 60% (examination)

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the process of mathematical modeling
Given a realworld problem, our first task is to formulate a mathematical model
by identifying and naming the independent and dependent variables and making assumptions that simplify the
phenomenon enough to make it mathematically tractable.

We use our knowledge of the physical situation and our mathematical skills to obtain equations that relate the variables.

In situations where there is no physical law to guide us, we may need to collect data
(either from a library or the Internet or by conducting our own experiments) and
examine the data in the form of a table in order to discern patterns.
From this numerical presentation we may wish to obtain a graphical representation by plotting the data.
The graph might even suggest a suitable algebraic formula in some cases.
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A mathematical model is a mathematical description (often by means of a function or an equation) of
a realworld phenomenon such as
the size of a population, the demand for a product, the speed of a falling object,
the concentration of a product in a chemical reaction, the life expectancy of a person at birth, or
the cost of emission reductions.

The purpose of the model is to understand the phenomenon and

perhaps to make predictions about future behavior.

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 HAZARD

HAZARD, or disaster threat,

“Any [naturally occurring or human-induced]

phenomenon, process or event with the
potential to cause disruption or damage
(loss) to humans and their environment.
In other words, it is a general source of
danger.
 Many so-called "natural" hazards have both
natural and human components.
 The compound effect of natural and man-
made hazards is better described by a term
environmental hazards.

Environmental Hazard
"an extreme geophysical events, biological
processes and major technological
accidents characterized by concentrated
releases of energy or materials that pose a
largely unexpected threat to humans".
Potentially Hazardous Phenomena
and/or Processes
 Natural
Atmospheric
Hydrologic
Geologic
Biologic
 Man-Made [Technologic]
Great natural catastrophes 1950-1999
MunichRe, 2000
Natural Disasters 1960 – 1995: Death Toll

3,000,000 Deaths
439 billion US$ Economic damage
Source: Munich Re 1996
Natural Disasters 1960 – 1995: Economic Losses

3,000,000 Deaths
439 billion US$ Economic damage
Source: Munich Re 1996
CRED. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

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Comparatie dintre informatiile reprezentative pentru anul 2015
si
media anuala din perioada 2005-2014

12
CRED. Natural Disasters 2019. Brussels: CRED; 2020.

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Comparison among different types of
natural catastrophes
Natural Disasters (Reported killed)
100.000

EARTH-
QUAKE
10.000
DROUGHT &
FAMINE

FLOOD
Annual average

1.000
HIGH WIND*

LAND-SLIDE

100 VOLCANO

10
1973 to 1978 to 1983 to 1988 to 1993 to
(http://www.cred.be)
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997
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 Human losses in the world during the
XXth century (per year)
Total Deaths in the World

100000

90000

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000
y = -2,2897x + 16890
30000

20000

10000

0
1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000
15
Human losses in the world during the
XXth century (per decade)
Human losses in the XXth century
(total of 1.5 millions - 15 000/year)

450000

400000

350000
300000
No. of deaths
250000

200000

150000

100000

50000
0
1900-10

1910-20

1920-30

1930-40

1940-50

1950-60

1960-70

1970-80

1980-90

1990-00
Per decade

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Economical losses in the world during
the XXth century
Economical Losses in the XXth century
(per million inhabitants - US$ normalized to 1997)
100

y = 0.0141e0.7045x
Million US Dollar/million
10
R2 = 0.7099
inhabitants
1

0.1

0.01
1900-10

1910-20

1920-30

1930-40

1940-50

1950-60

1960-70

1970-80

1980-90

1990-00
Decades
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 th
Major earthquakes in 20 century
1000

Tentative border line

100 Developed countries losses

Economic losses, US$ bn.
Japan, Kobe, 1995

USA, Northridge, 1994 Italy, 1980 Turkey, Kocaeli, 1999

Armenia, 1988
10
USA, Loma Prieta, 1989 Iran, 1990
Montenegro, 1979 Mexico, 1985
Romania, 1977
El Salvador, 1986 Nicaragua, 1972
Colombia, 1999
1 Taiwan, 1999 Guatemala, 1976
Philippines, 1990
Skopje, 1963
Developing countries losses

0
10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Deaths

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 DISASTER

"An event in which the interaction between

the human population and a hazard results
in the loss, at sufficiently large scale, of
lives, of material possessions or of what is
valued by humans"
Most of other definitions of disaster tend to reflect
the following issues:
 Disruption to normal patterns of life. Such
disruption is usually severe and may also be
sudden, unexpected and widespread;
 Human effects such as loss of life, injury
hardship and adverse effect on health; and,
 Effects on social structure such as
destruction of or damage to government
systems, buildings, communications and
essential services.
Dictionary definitions for disaster are:
Concise Oxford Dictionary: A sudden or great
misfortune, calamity.
Webster's Dictionary: A sudden calamitous event
producing great material damage, loss and
distress.

Asian Development Bank: An event, natural or

man-made, sudden or progressive, which
impacts with such severity that the affected
community has to respond by taking
exceptional measures.
The UN (DHA/IDNDR, 1992): A serious disruption
of the functioning of the society, causing
widespread human, material or environmental
losses which exceed the ability of the affected
people to cope using its own resources.
Disasters are often classified according to their
cause viz. natural or man-made.
This definition conveys a better idea of the social
stress created by a disaster. Although no threshold
or scale is given it implies a major incident requiring
the mobilization of emergency services.
Disasters are also defined or assessed on some
quantitative criteria of death and damage.
In an early attempt at the definition of global
natural disasters (Sheenan and Hewritt, 1969), the
disaster has been defined as any event that
caused:

 At least 100 people dead or

 At least 100 people injured or
 At least US $1 million damage.
While community loss is the major
characteristic of disasters, all these
definitions ignore the fact that, in virtually
every disaster, some gains also arise.
A definition, as presented in the following
figure, indicate the potential impact of
environmental hazards in terms of some
likely losses and gains, both direct and
indirect, with an indication of some tangible
and intangible effects.
The Potential Impact of Environmental Hazards
in Terms of Some Likely Losses and Gains
 Examples of Some Technological Trends
Aimed to Decrease Vulnerability
 Increased understanding of hazardous
processes and phenomena;
 Improved analytical methods that permit the
development and use of complex models;
 Enhanced communications, which permit
applications resulting from this new
understanding to be communicated in a
timely manner; and,
 Advanced engineering practices, which have
given an improved understanding of the
susceptibility of materials and structures
together with the development of new
approaches to engineering and design.
 RISK
 “The probability of meeting danger or
suffering harm or loss"; or,

 “The level of loss or damage that can be

predicted from a particular [environmental]
hazard affecting a particular place at
particular time".

In other words, hazard (or cause) may be defined

as 'a potential threat to humans and their welfare',
risk (or consequence) as 'the probability of hazard
occurrence', and disaster as 'the realization of
hazard'.
 Risk Categories
 Perceived risk;
 Acceptable risk;
 Calculated or estimated risk; and,
 Real risk.
Perceived risk: "the risk as understood by
those [population] at risk"
Acceptable risk: "a risk level chosen as a
limiting requirement by those setting
standards and making decisions for
society"
Calculated or estimated risk: "the figure
computed by designers and planners for
the risk of failure of something to be built"
Real risk: "the true risk which could only be
known if the access could be made to all
that could be known about the situation"
The distinction between the perceived
and real risk is critical to the work of
emergency systems.
The perceptions of people, even if
statistically astray, are major
influences on behavior and need to be
taken into account, both in the
presentation of risk analysis and in the
formulation of risk management
policies.
Risk assessment includes an evaluation of all the
elements that are relevant to an understanding of
existing hazards and their effect on a specific
environment.
It involves the following four basic components:
 The hazard;
 The exposure;
 The location of the exposure relative to the
hazard; and,
 The vulnerability of the exposure at the
location of the exposure relative to the
hazard.
Components of Risk Assessment
 The exposure: "any element of human
value [people and/or what they value]
sensitive to the realization of the hazard"
 The elements at risk: [people and/or what
they value] are the essential point of
reference for all risk assessments and for all
disasters.
 While hazard can exist even in an
uninhabited region, the risk can occur only in
an area where people and their possessions
exist.
 The location: "the position of the exposure
relative to the hazard“
 VULNERABILITY

"is a measure of risk combined with the

level of social and economic ability to cope
with the expected/resulting event."
In its simplest (physical) form it is defined as:
 "the factors [of the community] which allow
a hazard to cause a disaster"; or,
 "the factors that increase the chances of a
community being unable to cope with an
emergency".
Vulnerability analysis is
“An understanding of the level of exposure of
persons and values (property) to the various
environmental hazards identified".
In an area exposed to multiple hazards,
vulnerability analysis should be carried out
for each type of hazard.
Vulnerability analysis shall provide
information on:
 The sectors at risk, e.g. physical (building,
infrastructure, critical facilities,
agriculture); social (vulnerable groups,
livelihoods, local institutions, poverty); and
economic (means of production, stocks,
incomes, market interruptions); and,
 The type of the risk (damage to public
infrastructure, production facilities,
housing, or casualties).
 Domains of Vulnerability of a Community

 Physical (Physical vulnerability);

 Social (Social vulnerability); and,
 Economic (Economic vulnerability).
Of most crucial importance for organization and
training of emergency systems is the physical
vulnerability of the exposure, i.e. of the
o Population;
o The man-made property; and,
o The environment.
Risk Management: "is the process of systematic
application of management policies, procedures
and practices to the tasks of identifying, analyzing,
assessing, treating and monitoring risk.“ It
involves:
 A formal, quantitative evaluation of potential
injury or loss over a specified period of time;
 The prospect of future mal-performance of a
safety or security systems.
Risk Assessment: is "a process used to determine
risk management priorities by evaluating and
comparing level of risk against predetermined
standards, target (acceptable) risk levels or other
criteria."