6.

5  The Exponential Distribution 1

6.5  The Exponential Distribution

The exponential distribution is a continuous distribution that is right-skewed and ranges from
zero to positive infinity (see Figure 6.1 Panel C on page 199). The exponential distribution is
widely used in waiting-line (i.e., queuing) theory to model the length of time between arrivals
in processes such as customers arriving at a bank’s ATM, patients entering a hospital emergency
room, and hits on a website.
The exponential distribution is defined by a single parameter, l, the mean number of arrivals
per unit of time. The probability density function for the length of time between arrivals is given
by Equation (6.7).

EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION

f (X) = le-lx for X 7 0 (6.7)

where
e = mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828
l = mean number of arrivals per unit
X = any value of the continuous variable where 0 6 X 6 ∞

The mean time between arrivals, m, is given by Equation (6.8), and the standard deviation
of the time between arrivals, s, is given by Equation (6.9).

MEAN TIME BETWEEN ARRIVALS

1
m = (6.8)
l

STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE TIME BETWEEN ARRIVALS

1
s = (6.9)
l

The value 1/l is equal to the mean time between arrivals. For example, if the mean number of
arrivals in a minute is l = 4, then the mean time between arrivals is 1/l = 0.25 minute, or
15 seconds. Equation (6.10) defines the cumulative probability that the length of time before the
next arrival is less than or equal to X.

CUMULATIVE EXPONENTIAL PROBABILITY

P(arrival time … X) = 1 - e-lx(6.10)

To illustrate the exponential distribution, suppose that customers arrive at a bank’s ATM at a
rate of 20 per hour. If a customer has just arrived, what is the probability that the next customer
will arrive within 6 minutes (i.e., 0.1 hour)? For this example, l = 20 and X = 0.1. Using
Equation (6.10),
P(arrival time … 0.1) = 1 - e-20(0.1)
= 1 - e-2
= 1 - 0.1353 = 0.8647

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 2 CHAPTER 6  |  The Normal Distribution and Other Continuous Distributions

Thus, the probability that a customer will arrive within 6 minutes is 0.8647, or 86.47%.
Figure 6.22 shows the Excel template that computes this probability.

FIGURE 6.22
Excel results for computing
exponential probability that
a customer will arrive within
six minutes

Example 6.7 illustrates the effect on the exponential probability of changing the time
between arrivals.

EXAMPLE 6.7 In the ATM example, what is the probability that the next customer will arrive within 3 minutes
Computing (i.e., 0.05 hour)?
­Exponential SOLUTION  For this example, l = 20 and X = 0.05. Using Equation (6.10),
Probabilities
P(arrival time … 0.05) = 1 - e-20(0.05)
= 1 - e-1
= 1 - 0.3679 = 0.6321
Thus, the probability that a customer will arrive within 3 minutes is 0.6321, or 63.21%.

PROBLEMS FOR SECTION 6.5 

LEARNING THE BASICS c. What are your answers to (a) and (b) if the rate of arrival of
6.43  Given an exponential distribution with l = 10, what is the autos is 60 per minute?
probability that the arrival time is d. What are your answers to (a) and (b) if the rate of arrival of
a. less than X = 0.1? autos is 30 per minute?
b. greater than X = 0.1? SELF 6.47  Customers arrive at the drive-up window of a
c. between X = 0.1 and X = 0.2? TEST ­fast-food restaurant at a rate of 2 per minute during the
d. less than X = 0.1 or greater than X = 0.2? lunch hour.
6.44  Given an exponential distribution with l = 30, what is the a. What is the probability that the next customer will arrive within
probability that the arrival time is 1 minute?
a. less than X = 0.1? b. What is the probability that the next customer will arrive within
b. greater than X = 0.1? 5 minutes?
c. between X = 0.1 and X = 0.2? c. During the dinner time period, the arrival rate is 1 per minute.
d. less than X = 0.1 or greater than X = 0.2? What are your answers to (a) and (b) for this period?

6.45  Given an exponential distribution with l = 5, what is the 6.48  Telephone calls arrive at the information desk of a large com-
probability that the arrival time is puter software company at a rate of 15 per hour.
a. less than X = 0.3? a. What is the probability that the next call will arrive within
b. greater than X = 0.3? 3 minutes (0.05 hour)?
c. between X = 0.3 and X = 0.5? b. What is the probability that the next call will arrive within
d. less than X = 0.3 or greater than X = 0.5? 15 minutes (0.25 hour)?
c. Suppose the company has just introduced an updated version
APPLYING THE CONCEPTS of one of its software programs, and telephone calls are now
arriving at a rate of 25 per hour. Given this information, what
6.46  Autos arrive at a toll plaza located at the entrance to a bridge are your answers to (a) and (b)?
at a rate of 50 per minute during the 5:00-to-6:00 p.m. hour. If an
auto has just arrived, 6.49  Calls arrive at a call center at the rate of 12 per hour. What is
a. what is the probability that the next auto will arrive within the probability that the next call arrives in
3 seconds (0.05 minute)? a. less than 3 minutes?
b. what is the probability that the next auto will arrive within b. more than 6 minutes?
1 second (0.0167 minute)? c. less than 1 minute?
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 6.5  The Exponential Distribution 3

6.50  The time between unplanned shutdowns of a power plant has 6.52  Some Internet companies sell a service that will boost a web-
an exponential distribution with a mean of 20 days. Find the proba- site’s traffic by delivering additional unique visitors. Assume that
bility that the time between two unplanned shutdowns is one such company claims it can deliver 1,000 visitors a day. If this
a. less than 14 days. amount of website traffic is experienced, then the time between
b. more than 21 days. visitors has a mean of 1.44 minutes (or 0.6944 per minute). Assume
c. less than 7 days. that your website gets 1,000 visitors a day and that the time between
visitors has an exponential distribution. What is the probability that
6.51  Golfers arrive at the starter’s booth of a public golf course at
the time between two visitors is
a rate of 8 per hour during the Monday-to-Friday midweek period.
a. less than 1 minute?
If a golfer has just arrived,
b. less than 2 minutes?
a. what is the probability that the next golfer will arrive within
c. more than 3 minutes?
15 minutes (0.25 hour)?
d. Do you think it is reasonable to assume that the time between
b. what is the probability that the next golfer will arrive within
visitors has an exponential distribution?
3 minutes (0.05 hour)?
c. The actual arrival rate on Fridays is 15 per hour. What are your
answers to (a) and (b) for Fridays?

EG6.5  The EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

Key Technique  Use the EXPON.DIST(X value, mean,
True) function.
Example  Compute the exponential probability for the bank
ATM customer arrival example.

PHStat  Use Exponential.

For the example, select PHStat ➔ Probability & Prob.
Distributions ➔ Exponential. In the procedure’s dialog box
(shown below):
1. Enter 20 as the Mean per unit (Lambda) and 0.1 as
the X Value.
2. Enter a Title and click OK.

Workbook  Use the COMPUTE worksheet of the

Exponential workbook as a template.
The worksheet already contains the data for the example.
For other problems, change the Mean and X Value in cells
B4 and B5.

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