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Lesson 5 - Economy - Inflation Lyst8717
Lesson 5 - Economy - Inflation Lyst8717
Lesson 5
Inflation
Inflation .................................................................... 2 Reasons for Periodic Spurt in Inflation in India
Understanding Inflation ....................................... 2 ......................................................................... 13
▪ Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of ▪ WPI reflects the change in average prices for
change in retail prices of goods and services bulk sale of commodities at the first stage of
consumed by defined population group in a transaction while CPI reflects the average
given area with reference to a base year. This change in prices at retail level paid by the
basket of goods and services represents the level consumer.
of living or the utility derived by the consumers ▪ The prices used for compilation of WPI are
at given levels of their income, prices and tastes. collected at ex-factory level for manufactured
▪ The CPI number measures changes only in one products, at ex-mine level for mineral products
of the factors: prices. This index is an important and mandi level for agricultural products. In
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contrast, retail prices applicable to consumers Inflation minus inflation that is contributed by
and collected from various markets are used to food and energy commodities.
compile CPI. ▪ To understand the concept in a better way we
▪ The reasons for the divergence between the can say that food and fuel prices may go up in
two indices can also be partly attributed to the the short run due to some disturbance in the
difference in the weight of food group in the agriculture sector or oil economy. However,
two baskets. CPI Food group has a weight of 39.1 over the long term they tend to revert back to
per cent as compared to the combined weight of their normal trend growth. On the other hand,
24.4 per cent (Food articles and Manufactured prices of other commodities do not fluctuate as
Food products) in WPI basket. regularly as food and fuel – as such increase in
▪ The CPI basket consists of services like housing, their prices could be taken relatively to be much
education, medical care, recreation etc. which more of a permanent nature.
are not part of WPI basket. A significant ▪ If this is so, then it follows logically for Central
proportion of WPI item basket represents Banks to target only core inflation, as it reflects
manufacturing inputs and intermediate goods the demand side pressure in the economy. In
like minerals, basic metals, machinery etc. whose practice too, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and
prices are influenced by global factors but these Central Banks around the World always keep an
are not directly consumed by the households and eye on the core inflation.
are not part of the CPI item basket. ▪ Whenever core inflation rises, Central Banks
▪ Thus, even significant price movements in items increase their key policy rates to suck excess
included in WPI basket need not necessarily liquidity from the market and vice versa. It is,
translate into movements in CPI in the short run. therefore, a preferred tool for framing long-
The rise or fall in prices at wholesale level spill term policy.
over to the retail level after a lag. ▪ Here it needs to be mentioned that, unlike core
inflation, headline inflation also takes into
HEADLINE INFLATION account changes in the price of food and energy.
Since food and energy prices are highly volatile,
▪ In general, headline inflation reflects the rate of
headline inflation may not give an accurate
change in prices of all goods and services in an
picture of how an economy is behaving.
economy over a period of time. Every country
▪ Responding to headline inflation might
has its own set of commodity basket to track
therefore sometimes be inappropriate as it
inflation. While some countries use Wholesale
generates excessive variability in the monetary
Price Index (WPI) as their official measure of
policy – variability that would be much more
inflation, most others use the Consumer Price
subdued when policy responds to core inflation.
Index (CPI).
▪ This is because, it is important to distinguish
▪ Up until March 2014, Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
between temporary (like seasonal variation in
had given more weightage to Wholesale Price
fruits and vegetable prices) and permanent
Index (WPI) than CPI as the key measure of
changes in prices. While temporary changes
inflation for all policy purposes.
would reverse and might not warrant attention,
▪ Since April 2014, RBI has adopted the new
permanent changes would require standard
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (combined) as the
remedies involving monetary and fiscal policies.
key measure of inflation.
▪ Research has shown that headline inflation
▪ Therefore CPI-combined is the measure of
tends to revert strongly towards core inflation
headline inflation in India now.
once the temporary fluctuation in food and
CORE INFLATION energy sector stabilizes.
Similarly, if you do not know the rate of inflation, it This also assumes you do not invest the money
is difficult to figure out if a rise in gross domestic available to you today in an equity security, a debt
product, or GDP, is due mainly to a rise in the overall instrument, or an interest-bearing bank account.
level of prices or to a rise in quantities of goods Essentially, if you have a rupee in your pocket today,
produced. that rupee’s worth, or value, will be lower one year
from today if you keep it in your pocket.
The nominal value of any economic statistic means
the statistic is measured in terms of actual prices Inflation increases the price of goods and services
that exist at the time. The real value refers to the over time, effectively decreasing the number of
same statistic after it has been adjusted for goods and services you can buy with a rupee in the
inflation. Generally, it is the real value that is more future as opposed to a rupee today. If wages remain
important. the same but inflation causes the prices of goods
and services to increase over time, it will take a
INFLATION AND NOMINAL & REAL GDP larger percentage of your income to purchase the
same good or service in the future.
NOMINAL GDP
So, for example, if a candy costs Rs 1 today, it's
The nominal GDP is the value of all the final goods
possible that it could cost Rs 2 for the same candy
and services that an economy produced during a
one year from today. This effectively decreases the
given year. It is calculated by using the prices that
time value of money, since it will cost twice as much
are current in the year in which the output is
to purchase the same product in the future.
produced. In economics, a nominal value is
expressed in monetary terms. For example, a
To mitigate this decrease in the time value of money,
nominal value can change due to shifts in quantity
you can invest the money available to you today at
and price. The nominal GDP takes into account all of
a rate equal to or higher than the rate of inflation.
the changes that occurred for all goods and services
produced during a given year. If prices change from INFLATION AND NOMINAL & REAL
one period to the next and the output does not INTEREST RATE
change, the nominal GDP would change even
though the output remained constant. When you borrow or lend, you normally do so in
rupee terms. If you take out a loan, the loan is
REAL GDP denominated in rupees, and your promised
payments are denominated in rupees. These rupee
The real GDP is the total value of all of the final
flows must be corrected for inflation to calculate the
goods and services that an economy produces
repayment in real terms. A similar point holds if you
during a given year, accounting for inflation. It is
are a lender: you need to calculate the interest you
calculated using the prices of a selected base year.
earn on saving by correcting for inflation.
To calculate Real GDP, you must determine how
much GDP has been changed by inflation since the
The Fisher equation provides the link between
base year, and divide out the inflation each year.
nominal and real interest rates. To convert from
Real GDP, therefore, accounts for the fact that if
nominal interest rates to real interest rates, we use
prices change but output doesn’t, nominal GDP
the following formula:
would change.
INFLATION AND VALUE OF MONEY Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate −
inflation rate.
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index reflected a spike in oil prices. In that case,
To find the real interest rate, we take the nominal because the index for that month was high, the
interest rate and subtract the inflation rate. For price change this June will be less, implying that
example, if a loan has a 12 percent interest rate and inflation has become subdued when, in fact, the
the inflation rate is 8 percent, then the real return on small change in the index is just a reflection of the
that loan is 4 percent. base effect—the result of the higher index value a
year earlier.
In calculating the real interest rate, we used the
actual inflation rate. This is appropriate when you Consider another example:
wish to understand the real interest rate actually
paid under a loan contract. But at the time a loan Price Index Inflation
agreement is made, the inflation rate that will occur Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
April 100 120 140 160 20 16.67 14.29
in the future is not known with certainty. Instead,
the borrower and lender use their expectations of
future inflation to determine the interest rate on a The index has increased by 20 points in all the three
loan. From that perspective, we use the following years – 2008, 2009, 2010. However, the inflation rate
formula: (calculated on year-on-year basis) tends to decline
over the three years from 20% in 2008 to 14.29% in
Contracted Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest 2010. This is because the absolute increase of 20
Rate + Expected Inflation Rate. points in the price index in each year increases the
base year price index by an equivalent amount, while
We use the term contracted nominal interest rate to the absolute increase in price index remains the
make clear that this is the rate set at the time of a same. Remember, year-on-year inflation is
loan agreement, not the realized real interest rate. calculated as:
Inflation is calculated based on price levels that are THE PRICE-YIELD SEESAW AND INTEREST
summarized in an index. The index may spike in RATES
June, for example, perhaps due to a surge in oil
prices. Over the following 11 months, the month- Just as a bond’s price can fluctuate, so can its yield–
over-month changes may return to normal, but its overall percentage rate of return on your
when June arrives again its price level will be investment at any given time. A typical bond’s
compared to those of a year earlier in which the coupon rate–the annual interest rate it pays–is
The answer has to do with the relative value of the Nominal: The actual rupee price of stuff when it's
interest that a specific bond pays. Rising prices over bought or sold. The contrast is with the term real,
time reduce the purchasing power of each interest which is actual value adjusted for price changes
payment a bond makes. Let’s say a five-year bond or inflation.
pays Rs 10,000 every six months. Inflation means
that Rs 10,000 will buy less five years from now. Real: The value after adjusting for inflation.
When investors worry that a bond’s yield won’t keep Economist are frequently interested in comparing
up with the rising costs of inflation, the price of the stuff (production, income, or whatever) in one
bond drops because there is less investor demand year with similar stuff in another year. However,
for it. in that inflation can distort such a comparison, it's
best made using a fixed set of prices that eliminate
INFLATION, INTEREST RATE AND BONDS inflationary changes. In practice, this is
accomplished by using the prices in an arbitrary
When the RBI raises its target interest rate to "base year." Once the price differences have been
control high inflation, other interest rates and bond eliminated, the numbers are said to be measured
yields typically rise as well. That’s because bond in real dollars.
issuers must pay a competitive interest rate to get
people to buy their bonds. New bonds paying Nominal Gross Domestic Product: The total
higher interest rates mean existing bonds with market value, measured in current prices, of all
lower rates are less valuable. Prices of existing goods and services produced within the political
bonds fall. boundaries of an economy during a given period
of time, usually one year. The key is that nominal
gross domestic product is measured in current, or
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actual prices; the prices buyers actually pay for High inflation creates uncertainty and can wipe away
goods and services purchased. the value of savings. However, most Central Banks in
developed economies target an inflation rate of 2%
Real Gross Domestic Product: The total market (Reserve Bank of India seeks to keep inflation
value, measured in constant prices, of all goods measured by Consumer Price Index within a band of
and services produced within the political 4% +/- 2%), suggesting that low inflation can have
boundaries of an economy during a given period various advantages to the economy. Some
of time, usually one year. The key is that real gross economists even argue we should target a higher
domestic product is measured in constant prices, inflation rate during periods of economic stagnation.
the prices for a specific base year. Real gross
domestic product, also termed constant gross
domestic product, adjusts gross domestic product ADVANTAGES OF INFLATION
for inflation.
▪ Deflation (a fall in prices – negative inflation) is
very harmful: When prices are falling, people
Time Value of Money: It is the concept that
are reluctant to spend money because they feel
money available at the present time is worth more
that goods will be cheaper in the future;
than the identical sum in the future due to its
therefore, they keep delaying purchases. Also,
potential earning capacity.
deflation increases the real value of debt and
reduces the disposable income of individuals
Real Interest Rate (RIR): The market, or nominal
who are struggling to pay off their debt.
interest rate (NIR), after adjusting for inflation.
o Assume Inflation is – 1%; RIR = NIR –
This is the interest rate lenders receive and
Inflation; Assume NIR = 10%; therefore,
borrowers pay expressed in real terms.
RIR = 10 – ( – 1%) = 11%.
▪ Moderate inflation enables adjustment of
Base Effect: The base effect is the distortion in a
wages: It is argued a moderate rate of inflation
monthly inflation figure that results from
makes it easier to adjust relative wages. For
abnormally high or low levels of inflation in the
example, it may be difficult to cut nominal wages
year-ago month. A base effect can make it difficult
(workers resent and resist a nominal wage cut).
to accurately assess inflation levels over time.
But, if average wages are rising due to moderate
inflation, it is easier to increase the wages of
QUESTION 6 productive workers; unproductive workers can
Q. A rapid increase in the rate of inflation is have their wages frozen – which is effectively a
sometimes attributed to the “base effect”. What real wage cut.
is “base effect”? [2011 - I] ▪ Inflation can boost growth: At times of very low
(a) It is the impact of drastic deficiency in supply inflation, the economy may be stuck in a
due to failure of crops recession. Arguably targeting a higher rate of
(b) It is the impact of the surge in demand due to inflation can enable a boost in economic
rapid economic growth growth. This view is controversial. Not all
(c) It is the impact of the price levels of previous economists would support targeting a higher
year on the calculation of inflation rate inflation rate. However, some would target
(d) None of the statements (a), (b) and (c) given higher inflation, if the economy was stuck in a
above is correct in this context prolonged recession.
Answer: C
DISADVANTAGES OF INFLATION
Explanation:
▪ Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not account for
all goods and services produced in an economy
because goods purchased by consumers does
not represent all the goods which are produced
in a country. Hence, statement 1 is not correct.
▪ CPI includes prices of goods consumed by the
representative consumer; hence it includes
prices of imported goods. Hence, statement 2 is
correct.
▪ The weights in CPI differ according to purchase
pattern of consumers. It does not vary according
to production levels. Hence, statement 3 is not
correct.