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Forecast of global steel prices

Article  in  Studies on Russian Economic Development · May 2011

DOI: 10.1134/S1075700711030105

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ISSN 10757007, Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2011, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 304–311. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2011.
Original Russian Text © A.G. Malanichev, P.V. Vorob’ev, 2011.

RUBRIKA
RUBRIKA

Forecast of Global Steel Prices

A. G. Malanichev and P. V. Vorob’ev
Severstal JSC
Received

Abstract—The article presents a regression model for forcasting global average annual steel prices. Instead of
price factors, we used the coefficient of load capacity of world steel plants and prices for iron ore and coking
coal. On the basis of these factors, steel prices were predicted for 2010–2012.
DOI: 10.1134/S1075700711030105

Economic forecasts rarely come true with a high
degree of accuracy, however, this does not lead to the
eradication of an interest in such forecasts. We can see
an analogy with weather forecasts, which are frequently
incorrect, but they do not express such a strong devia
tion from the real weather as other forecast methods.
Economic forecasts restrict the future ambiguity and
thus promote more confident longterm development
strategies and investments. If one is to choose between a
forecast and its absence, the former is explicitly prefer
ential because it allows for the reduction of losses from
probable wrong decisions, taking advantage of opening
opportunities or escaping potential threats.
Longterm price forecasts have a special signifi
cance. Longterm investment decision making in any
branch, including ferrous metallurgy, is based on the
understanding of price trends during the implementa
tion and payoff phases of a project. In the ferrous met
allurgy industry, the time slot can exceed 10 years. It is
vital that the trends of final product prices be compara
ble with the expected cost dynamics. It allows for more
reliable forecasts of producers’ margins and, conse
quently. of investment payback periods.
The object of the analysis in this article are long
term price tendencies in the global rolled iron market.
The purpose was to propose a forecast procedure for
world steel prices that would include compatible trends
of steel prices and costs.
As a result, we have developed a mediumterm fore
cast algorithm for the average world steel price, which is
based on a regression between metalroll prices, global
steel capacities and the dynamics of steel production
costs. The derived regression model provides a good
description of the historical dynamics of world steel
prices since 1980, including the drop in prices during
the crisis of 2009. The simplicity of the model allows for
use in the calculation of price targets for strategic busi
ness plans in metallurgical companies.
Approaches to price forecasting in the steel industry.
The lack of popular intuitive prediction methods among
practitioners in the metallurgical industry [1] results in
a situation when experts frequently substitute forecasts
by wishful thinking, i.e., instead of forecasting what is
going to be, they express their anticipations. In addi
tion, a considerable amount of time is spent on the
coordination of different trends (the growth rate of steel
consumption, steel prices, raw material prices, etc.).
Formal methods allow for the elimination of the above
mentioned subjective judgement and additional labor
costs through the identification of regularities in the
object to be forecast through the construction of eco
nomic models.
In the process of price forecasting (in virtually every
industry), we can distinguish the following approaches
to model construction:
(1) decomposition of price time series: detection of
the trend, autocorrelation, seasonal and random com
ponents;
(2) factorial analysis based on a regression model:
allocation of essential price factors, quantitative assess
ment of their impact on the regression, exogenous fac
tors, and price forecast construction.
Frequently, the relationship between the dependent
and independent variables in a regression analysis
reminds a “black box”, i.e., mechanisms that determine
the presence of a relationship among variables are not
always obvious to analysts. In order to thoroughly
understand the actual processes, we need to develop
more sophisticated models that can be called structural.
Structural models imitate reality at an abstraction
level, which not only allows for observing relationships
between variables, but also answering the question why
these relationships exist. Typically, such structural mod
els in the form of mathematical relationships or systems
of theoretical principles are the initial stage of an analy
sis. After this, we can formulate the hypotheses and
regression model.
Metallurgical market modeling usually occurs on
the basis of the first two approaches. A brief overview of
the work carried out in this area follows.
A time series analysis is based on the future reitera
tion of the past, and the most important information for

304
 FORECAST OF GLOBAL STEEL PRICES
Price, USD/t
Demand Dt
p*
Supply
Qt
Utilization capacity
Fig. 1. Determination of the equilibrium rolled steel price in the world market.
forecasting is already in historical price series. There
fore, this method is not widely used for forecasting into
the very distant future, as structural changes can take
place, and new price growth factors or noncyclic varia
tions in old factors can emerge. Nevertheless, this
method is limited in respect of forecasting periods
(1–6 months). An example is the work of A. Mel
nichenko [2].
The selection of significant factors affecting prices
and assessment of their quantitative impact are the base
of a factor analysis. A forecast is constructed by specify
ing the most probable factor dynamics in price changes
and calculating forecast prices on the base of a regres
sion equation.
For rolled iron, literature considers the following
price factors:
(1) export prices used for predicting domestic mar
ket prices [3];
(2) rolled iron supply to the market [3];
(4) production volumes in consuming industries [3,
4];
(5) macroeconomic variables, such as the amount of
money [3];
(6) world capacity [5];
(7) production costs [1, 6].
The work of O. Kononova [5] is an example of a
simultaneous application of time series and factor anal
yses. This work proposes to exploit the productive
capacity utilization as a primary factor for steel prices.
At the same time, autocorrelation in the price dynamics
was taken into account with the help of the ARIMA
model.
In spite of the high accuracy of retrospective data,
there were some discrepancies between the forecast and
price dynamics of metallurgical raw materials, i.e.,
including costs. In the past few years, world steel prices
STUDIES ON RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
305
Marginal producer
costs
Maximum capacity
World capacity, mln t
Idle capacity
have grown as a result of multiple price increases for
metallurgical raw materials, which happen due to infra
structural constraints imposed by suppliers, especially
Australia. The consolidation of raw materials suppliers
in the three largest global companies (Rio Tinto, BHP
Billiton, and CVRD) also played an important role in
the price growth for raw materials.
Steel production costs are widely used in practice as
a price factor (see, e.g., [1, 6]). An increase in steel
prices is equal to the increase in steel production costs
(campanile, coking coal, scrap, etc.). This approach is
intuitively understandable, because it actually repeats
one of pricing methods (costs +) but does not give any
idea about the margin dynamics of steel producers,
depending on economic cycles.
The model presented in this paper takes into
account both factors of steel price formation (world
steel capacity determined by market demand and sup
ply and production costs).
Equilibrium model of demand and supply in the rolled
iron market. The pricing model in the world market of
rolled steel is based on the hypothesis that producers’
marginal expanses (production prices) at current mar
ket prices for a given amount of production are equal to
consumption [7]. Marginal producers have the largest
expanses of all producers, and their aggregate output
provides for the global steel demand. All the world steel
production capacity can be ranked in an increasing
order in respect of production costs. As a result, we will
obtain a worldwide capacity distribution curve in
respect of steel production costs. At the same time, it
represents the supply curve in the rolled steel market,
because it shows the minimum price required by manu
facturers to produce a given amount of rolled steel.
In each period, the market has certain demand Dt
that must be equal to steel production volumes Qt in an
equilibrium state.
Vol. 22 No. 3 2011
306
As Fig. 1 shows, the equilibrium price P* is deter
mined by the intersection of the capacity utilization
(demand) and steel production cost (supply) curves.
This intersection point also represents a marginal pro
ducer’s costs for whom it is still profitable to produce at
such a low price.
The equilibrium price can also vary because of shifts
in demand (changes in steel consumption) and supply
(changes in production capacity and steel production
costs) curves.
The demand curve can shift to the left or right,
depending on the dynamics of the global economy and
the major steelconsuming industries—construction,
engineering, and pipe industry.
The supply curve can change its shape:
(1) stretch horizontally as a result of an increase or
decrease in steel production capacities (Capacitiest);
(2) shift vertically due to changes in prices of major
raw materials for ferrous metallurgy—ore, coking coal,
scrap, etc.;
(3) stretch vertically as a result of nonuniform
changes in producer costs over different segments of the
cost curve and changes in commodity prices due to the
lack of raw material sources (the right section of the cost
curve) or their presence (the left section). As a rule, the
latter are verticallyintegrated companies, which are
secured by own raw materials. Therefore, the right side
of the cost curve becomes steeper quicker than the one
when market prices for raw materials increase. As the
described effect is quite difficult to evaluate, it is not
considered within the framework of the model.
In order to reconcile the shifting of the supply and
demand curves, it is advisable to turn to a dimensionless
parameter—capacity utilization CUt. In an equilibrium
state, at time t, it is simply the following relationship:
Dt Qt
CU t = 
 = 
.
Capacities t Capacities t
Thereby, the two main factors of the equilibrium
steel price are the capacity utilization rate and steel pro
duction costs for marginal producers.
Regression model of rolled steel prices. In order to
test the hypothesis that there are two major factors of
steel price dynamics, a regression model was built. It is
based on the following assumptions.
There is a linear relationship between the price of
rolled iron Pt, the load coefficient of the world steel pro
duction capacity CUt, and raw material costs RMCt.
Other factors affecting the price (development of
steelmaking technologies, transfer of steel production
to developing countries, etc.) are recorded by means of
time trends.
Marginal steel producers are located in the Asian
region (Japan and China), which have the greatest
weight in world steel consumption and purchases raw
materials in the global free market.
STUDIES ON RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
MALANICHEV, VOROB’EV
Contract prices for raw materials (coking coal and
fines) are a good approximation of the cost dynamics
for marginal steel producers. The components of the
Australia–Japan freight are not considered separately,
since they correlate well with raw material prices. For
the same reason, the model does not include such an
important component of metallurgical raw materials as
iron scrap.
The raw materials cost index, which is measured at
the current U.S. dollar exchange rate and, therefore,
includes an inflationary trend, takes into account dollar
inflation.
Thus, its equation is as follows:
P t = αCU t + βRMC t + γt + ω, (2)
where t is the time trend variable (as well as the time
index in the case of other variables), which was 0 in
2009 and increases or decreases by 1 in each subse
quent year; α, β, γ, and ω are regression coefficients,
which are estimated on the basis of historical data
(1980–2009).
The average global steel price Pt is calculated as an
average of four hotrolled coil prices under the terms of
FOB in the United States, Europe, China, and exports
from Russia (sources are the analytical agencies
1 2
SBB and CRU .
The raw material cost factor is evaluated as a
weighted sum of coking coal and iron ore prices:
RMC t = 0.6 × Coking coal price t
(3)
+ 1.6 × Iron ore price t .
The weights are determined on the basis of expert
assessments of raw material consumption per t of hot
3
rolled sheets (WSD , 2010). The price of Australian
exports is chosen as a representative price for hard cok
(1) ing coal, whereas the price of Brazilian exports is cho
sen as a representative price of fines (in all instances, on
the terms of FOB). Data sources are CRU and WSD.
The capacity coefficient is estimated on the basis of
data of the World Steel Association [8].
Figure 2 shows the initial data used for the assess
ment of the regression model.
Estimated formula (2) based on annual data from
1980 to 2009 is as follows:
P t = 13.45CU t + 3RMC t – 5.2t – 972. (4)
All of the model coefficients are significant. The
determination coefficient R2 is equal to 90%; i.e., the
model cannot only explain 10% of changes in average
world steel prices. The calculated values are close to
actual prices, i.e., this allows for the realization of pre
dicted estimates by 67%.
1 SBB—Steel Business Briefing Ltd.
2 CRU—Commodities Research Unit.
3 WSD—World Steel Dynamics.
Vol. 22 No. 3 2011
 FORECAST OF GLOBAL STEEL PRICES 307

USD/t % USD/t
1000 90 1000
900 900
85
800 800
80 700
700
600 75 600
500 70 500
400 65 400
300 300
60
200 200
100 55 100
0 50 0

2003
2005
2007
2009
1993
1995
1983
1985

1997
1999
1987
1989

2001
1991
1981

2003
2005
2007
2009
1983
1985
1987
1989

1993
1995

2001
1997
1999
1981

1991
Year Year
Fig. 2. Baseline data for the model: raw material costs
(fines and coking coal); global average prices of hot Fig. 3. Average world hotrolled prices: 䉫 actual price com
rolled coil; ⎯ capacity utilization (right scale). parison; 䉭 estimates based on regression.

Let us provide an interpretation for the coefficient in
the model. A 1% growth in capacity utilization leads to
an increase in rolled stock prices by 13.45 US dollars per
t. Respectively, steel price increase by 100 US dollars
when capacity utilization increases by 7.5%.
An increase in raw material costs by 1 US dollar
leads to an increase in rolled stock prices by 3 US dol
lars, out of which 1 US dollar is directly related to the
increased prices of coking coal and fines. The remain
ing 2 US dollars are defined by rising prices for other
cost elements (scrap, ferroalloys, freight, energy, and
labor), which tend to vary in the same direction as the
prices of coking coal and fines.
Every year, the time trend lowers prices by 5.2 US
dollars; this is due to regional industrial developments
with low production costs and industrial technological
advancements.
Figure 3 compares actual and calculated rolled stock
prices based on the regression. In general, the calcu
lated values accurately approximate to the actual prices.
A discrepancy is observed in the dynamics during
1980–1985, when the strengthening US dollar contrib
uted to the decrease in world steel prices. Also, in 2004,
the regression underestimated the actual increase in
steel prices. However, in 2004, speculative factors served
their purpose, which resulted in a further price correc
tion in 2005, when the gap between the actual and esti
mated costs substantially reduced.
Analysis of the model sensitivity. This is a standard
construction stage, which allows for the evaluation of
the price sensitivity to changes in the market environ
ment (through changes in the exogenous parameters of
the model). Establishing the range of possible changes
in the exogenous factors, it is possible to determine the
liability of business risk to fluctuations in market activ
ity. On the base of the regression model, the sensitivity
of steel prices to changes in the raw materials market (by
the means of raw material costs) and demand (by the
means of capacity utilization) was analyzed (Table 1).
If the world steelmaking capacities are loaded by
66% (i.e., there are about 500 mln t of excess steelmak
ing capacities), steel prices are sensitive to cost changes.
In this case, a 25% increase in raw material costs
increases steel price from 520 to 670 USD/t, i.e., by

Table 1. Sensitivity analysis of prospective rolled steel prices to changes in capacity utilization and raw material costs (rel
ative to 2009)

Capacity Raw material costs (increase rate relative to 2009), USD/t

utilization, % –50% –25% 0% 25% 50% 100% 125%
668 110 261 411 561 711 1011 1161
664 164 315 465 615 765 1065 1215
66 218 365 520 670 819 1119 1269
66 + 5 286 436 586 736 886 1186 1336
66 + 10 353 504 654 804 954 1254 1404
66 + 15 421 571 721 871 1021 1321 1471
66 + 20 488 639 789 939 1089 1389 1539

STUDIES ON RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Vol. 22 No. 3 2011

308 MALANICHEV, VOROB’EV
%
$ 450
$ 400
$ 350
$ 300
$ 250
$ 200
$ 150
$ 100
$ 50
$0
1981 1984 1987 1990
Fig. 4. Relative contributions of the capacity utilization (
Coal and iron ore Calculation of the raw
price predictions material cost factor
Fig. 5. Algorithm of mediumterm price forcasting of rolled steel stocks.
28%. An increase in capacity utilization by 5% leads to
an increase in prices from 520 to 586 USD/t (13%).
Capacity utilization and the raw materials cost index
are equally significant in explaining the historical
dynamics of steel prices (Fig. 4).
However, we should note that prior to 2002, capacity
utilization was more significant than the cost dynamics.
This can be explained by the fact that commodity prices
were relatively stable.
After 2002, the factor of raw material costs had a sig
nificant impact due to the rising raw material costs
owing to the increased imports of raw materials into
China. The 2009 world price reduction in the same pro
portion can be explained by a decrease in the utilization
of steel capacities and raw material prices.
Projected global prices for rolled iron in 2010–2013.
Figure 5 shows a general prediction scheme based on
the proposed regression model.
The development of a price forecast based on the
proposed regression model requires an independent
prediction factor: a capacity utilization coefficient and
raw materials cost index (price dynamics of coking coal
and fines).
The capacity utilization coefficient is calculated as a
ratio of world steel production volumes to the global
steelmaking capacity. Global investment banks and spe
cialized metallurgical agencies regularly update their
predictions for steelmaking capacity, world steel pro
duction volumes, and prices for coal and iron ore.
STUDIES ON RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Year
) and raw material cost factor ( ) to steel price growth.
World capacity Rolled stock
utilization price prediction on
prediction the basis of
regression (4).
Based on these, a consensus forecast is prepared for the
exogenous factors in the regression model (Table 2) and
after this, the price of hotrolled products is predicted
(Table 3).
According to the derived prediction, in 2012, prices
for rolled stock will amount to 752 USD/t or increase by
241 US dollars in comparison to 2009 (511 USD/t). At
the same time, raw material costs will increase by
51 USD/t. According to the regression model, the fac
tors of raw material costs affect prices by a factor of 3,
i.e., a growth of 51 US dollars leads to an increase in
steel prices by 153 USD/t. Exactly in this proportion
prices increase in the consensus prediction (from 510
USD/t in 2009 to 660 USD/t in 2012).
Thereby, the consensus prediction appears to be
based on the assumed cost dynamics of steel produc
tion. However, besides costs, steel prices will grow as a
result of a 7% increase in the steel load capacity (from
66% in 2009 to 73% in 2012). Even this more than con
servative forecast of loading capacity provides an addi
tional increase in prices by 94.5 USD/t (7% × 13.5).
Consequently, by 2012, prices will increase by 153 USD/t
due to costs and by 95 USD/t due to increased utilization
capacities (a general increase of 248 USD/t). As there is
a temporary decreasing trend, the final prediction of the
steel price increment constitutes 241 USD/t.
We can conclude that the consensus prediction of
external experts does not take into consideration the
factor of growth in the steelmaking capacity and is only
Vol. 22 No. 3 2011
 FORECAST OF GLOBAL STEEL PRICES 309

Table 2. Consensus predictions for coking coal, iron ore and hot rolled steel prices

2009 2010 2011 2012

Producer Date Terms Region (assess
ment) rediction

Coking coal, USD/t

Troika Dialog 14.01.2010 FOB Australia 129 180 190 185
Citi 13.01.2010 FOB Australia 172 182 200 155
Macquarie 15.12.2009 FOB Australia 129 180 190 160
Goldman Sachs 11.01.2010 FOB Australia 129 180 – –
DB 18.01.2010 FOB Australia 129 175 190 190
Macquarie 15.12.2009 FOB Australia 129 180 190 160
UBS 03.02.2010 FOB Australia 129 200 180 160
Consensus prediction: hot x x x –54 36 4 –10
rolled sheet, increase rate, %
Fines, USD/t
WSD 23.12.2010 FOB Brazil 62 70 61 51
UBS 03.02.2010 FOB Australia 61 85 89 85
DB 18.01.2010 FOB Australia 60 81 73 73
Goldman Sachs 15.01.2010 FOB Australia 60 81 81 77
Merrill Lynch, USD/t fines 13.01.2010 FOB Australia 97 146 153 153
Citi, USD/t fines 13.01.2010 FOB Australia 109 108 112 112
CRU 01.01.2010 FOB Australia 61 112 – –
CRU 01.01.2010 FOB Brazil 56 104 – –
Macquarie 15.12.2009 FOB Australia 97 126 132 126
Consensus prediction: fines, x x x –30 29 –1 –4
increase rate, %
Hot roll, USD/t
UBS 03.02.2010 FOB Midwestern 552 606 606 716
United States
MS 29.01.2010 FOB United States 574 690 726
CRU 27.01.2010 FOB Midwestern 686 811 823 775
United States
DB 18.01.2010 FOB Europe 569 634 662 634
ML 14.01.2010 FOB Europe 497 660 730 790
AME 07.01.2010 FOB Latin America 468 468 520 570
Macquarie 15.12.2009 FOB Latin America 524 639 643 635
Renessance Capital 30.11.2009 FOB Russia 495 545 566 598
CityGroup 11.11.2009 FOB United States 535 638 700
Troika Dialog 15.10.2009 FOB United States 462 594 618 638
GS 08.10.2009 FOB United States 486 550 575 620
Consensus prediction: fines, x x x –44 18 5 4
increase rate, %

STUDIES ON RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Vol. 22 No. 3 2011

310 MALANICHEV, VOROB’EV

Table 3. Global rolled steel price predictions for 2010–2012

2010 2011 2012

Attribute 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (assess
ment) Prediction

World steelmaking capacity 86 84 86 85 78 66 69 70 73

coefficient, %
Steel Production, mln t 1069 1141 1243 1346 1336 1199 1320 1408 1494
% 89 95 104 112 111 100 110 117 125
Steelmaking capacity, mln t 1246 1356 1453 1583 1713 1816 1917 1997 2036
Raw material costs
Steel costs, USD/t 79 132 137 133 262 201 268 273 252
% 39 65 68 66 130 100 133 135 125
Fines costs (Brazil, FOB), 21 36 42 47 71 62 80 80 76
USD/t
% 34 57 68 75 114 100 129 129 123
Coking coal (Australia, 75 125 116 98 250 172 234 243 218
FOB), USD/t
% 44 73 68 57 145 100 136 142 127
Time trend –5 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3
Average world price of hot
rolled sheet, USD/t
fact 601 540 589 596 866 511 – – –
consensus prediction esti – – – – 866 511 605 635 660
mation
on the base of regression 446 576 605 581 866 519 749 781 752
% 86 111 117 112 167 100 145 151 145
Note: Prices are nominal and average: the base year for interest accounting is 2009. The data source of steelmaking capacity and world steel
production is from World Steel Association and data sources of historical raw materials and steel prices is CRU.

based on rising raw material prices in the industry.
Therefore, the use of regression models provides a more
accurate prediction of prices.
CONCLUSIONS
The introduced regression model explains the
dynamics of average world hotrolled steel prices by two
exogenous factors: the world steelmaking capacity coef
ficient and raw material production costs of crude steel.
The historical data analysis showed that during assess
ing the possible effect on steel price, the relative load
capacity and costs are not constant in time. During
1980–2000, the load capacity played an important part.
However, after 2000, the growth in crude steel prices
relatively increased the influence of costs on the
dynamics of steel prices.
The main advantage of the proposed model is that it
allows for receiving rolled stock price predictions,
which agree with world economy predictions (demand
for steel), the expected commissioning of metallurgical
facilities, and the price dynamics of metallurgical raw
materials. Another equally important advantage is the
simplicity of using the derived regression equation for
calculating economic forecasts and the strategic devel
opment plan of a major steel company in Excel.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank our colleagues T. Verasto, M. Hudalov,
A. Pustov, and O. Kononova for valuable comments and
suggestions.

STUDIES ON RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Vol. 22 No. 3 2011

 FORECAST OF GLOBAL STEEL PRICES 311

REFERENCES 5. O. Kononova, “LongTerm Price Predictions in Metal

1. WSD. The Chinese “Head Fake”. Chinese Ball Carrier to
Agile to Be Stopped, (Steel Scorecard, no. 4, 2010).
2. A. Melnichenko, “Metal Production Price Predic
tion,” Intellectual Resources (2005).
3. M. Denisenko, “Features of Price Predictions for Fer
rous Metallurgical Companies,” National Metallurgy
(2003).
4. A. Malanichev, “Regression Analysis of Nickel Prices,”
National Metallurgy (2005).
lurgy. A TenYear Price Prediction for HotRolled
Products,” National Metallurgy (2007).
6. V. Vlasjuk, Steel Industry after a Year of Crisis: The Way
Passed and the Outlook for Recovery (UPE Co.
Research&Consulting, 2009).
7. “Where Will Steel Prices Go in 2010?” UBS.
QSeries®: Global Steel (February 2, 2010).
8. Global Steel Capacity Development, WSA. ECON
Autumn Meeting, (September 17, 2009).

Malanichev Alexander: Ph.D., Head of Strategic Marketing

Vorobjov Pavel: PhD, senior analyst of Strategic Marketing

STUDIES ON RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Vol. 22 No. 3 2011

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