2019 7th International Conference on Information and Communication Technology (ICoICT)
Disease Propagation Prediction using Machine
Learning for Crowdsourcing Mobile Applications
Pratima Kurtah Yusrah Takun
Software and Information Systems Software and Information Systems
University of Mauritius University of Mauritius
Réduit, Mauritius Réduit, Mauritius
pratima.kurtah@umail.uom.ac.mu yusrah.takun@umail.uom.ac.mu
Abstract— Being a tropical island, Mauritius is prone to
many communicable diseases. Relevant departments of the
Ministry of Health and Quality of Life have as mission to
monitor and control the propagation of diseases. The primary
objective of this paper is to provide the ministry with a system
that displays in real time the disease status over the island. The
system also predicts the propagation of diseases allowing the
ministry to better plan remedial actions. The system consists of
three mobile crowdsourcing applications that allow the public,
doctors and pharmacies to report diseases and drugs sales in
real time. Data regarding diseases for the year 2017 were
retrieved and the corresponding daily weather information
namely as temperature, humidity and wind for that year was
then extracted and added to this dataset. An Artificial Neural
Network (ANN) was then trained with this dataset and then used
to predict the propagation of the diseases which can be
monitored by the Ministry of Health and Quality of Life through
another application. The prediction was performed based on the
number of reported diseases on the current day along with
weather forecasts for the forthcoming days and the results were
promising. The model has been evaluated resulting in an
accuracy of 90%. Finally, we believe that such a system can be
very beneficial to the ministry which can then take informed
decisions to counteract the possible propagation of diseases.
Keywords— machine learning, artificial neural network,
prediction of disease propagation, artificial intelligence, health
informatics, crowdsourcing, mobile
I. INTRODUCTION
Mauritius, a tropical island in the Indian Ocean, is prone
to many communicable diseases such as gastroenteritis and
flu among others. Every year, the country faces many cases
that the health authorities have to handle and keep under
control. There are several applications available worldwide
that can allow people to report diseases but no such
application allows the health authorities to predict their
propagation. A situation may arise where there is a disease
outbreak and hospitals might not be prepared to handle the
outbreak or may not have the required amount of medicines in
stock. The population is currently alerted only after there has
been an outbreak and not beforehand. As a result, authorities
might be better prepared if they could use latest technologies
to predict the propagation of diseases.
Technology has played a vital role in healthcare settings
during the recent years. Along with technology,
crowdsourcing has been very helpful in gathering health
related information that can help in solving a medical
problem. Crowdsourcing for healthcare refers to the
collection or analysis of health and medical research data by
anyone who wants to participate [1]. Various crowdsourcing
applications for healthcare have been developed with a variety
of features. One among the well-known crowdsourcing
applications is HealthMap [2]. This application enables user
to report outbreaks and allows the real time monitoring as well
978-1-5386-8052-0/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE
Leckraj Nagowah
Software and Information Systems
University of Mauritius
Réduit, Mauritius
l.nagowah@uom.ac.mu
as propagations of diseases. Machine learning (ML), the study
of tools and methods for identifying patterns in data, can help
handling health-related data [3].
Machine learning is a natural extension of Artificial
Intelligence (AI). The fusion of healthcare data and machine
learning in order to identify patterns of interests is known as
healthcare informatics [4]. Machine learning can be divided
into two broad categories [5], namely supervised learning [6]
and unsupervised learning [7]. For unsupervised learning,
only input values are used with no desired output. The
algorithms discover and identify interesting pattern in data by
themselves without any human guidance. Some examples are:
K-means and Apriori algorithm. In supervised machine
learning, a dataset is used to train the learning algorithm and
the learning is stopped upon the achievement of an appropriate
performance. Some of these algorithms are: support vector
machines, linear regression and artificial neural networks [8].
The primary contribution and motivation of this research
is the formulation of a system that uses machine learning,
more specifically, artificial neural networks, to predict the
propagation of communicable diseases based on current data
and forthcoming weather conditions. The proposal is to gather
real time disease information through crowdsourcing mobile
applications and combine this information with extracted
weather forecasts to predict the propagation of diseases. A
prototype application has been initially developed and the
results are promising with an accuracy of about 90%.
The rest of the paper is structured as follows. An overview
of common diseases and their propagation is summarized in
section II. Section III presents a survey of major healthcare
crowdsourcing applications and their main limitations.
Section IV describes the proposed solution along with its
system architecture and its disease propagation algorithm. The
prototype and some test cases are presented in section V. An
evaluation of the potential of the system is presented in section
VI. Finally, the conclusion and the future works are discussed
in section VII.
II. COMMON DISEASES AND THEIR PROPAGATION
Pathogens are microorganisms that can cause any type of
disease. The transmission of pathogens can be through a host
(ingestion of contaminated meat), a vector (mosquito) or other
routes if transmissions are air-borne, water-borne or through
direct contact [9].
Vector-borne diseases are illnesses caused by pathogens
and parasites also known as vectors [10]. These types of
diseases include dengue, cholera yellow fever, malaria and
chikungunya. Any disease transmitted through water is
referred to as a water-borne disease [11]. Diseases such as
salmonella, gastroenteritis and cholera are classified as water-
borne diseases. Airborne diseases get propagated when
droplets of pathogens are expelled into the air while talking,
sneezing or couching [12]. Some examples of airborne Epidemiologists from Harvard and Boston Children’s
diseases are influenza, tuberculosis and chicken pox. hospital created the FluNearYou [18] application in order to
use the contribution of the crowd to gather information about
Weather conditions and variables have a different impact influenza and report to the public as well as to researchers. It
on different types of diseases. Weather conditions that can allows individuals to report symptoms in real-time and
affect propagation of diseases are: temperature, humidity, provide useful information directly to the public.
rainy, cloudy, sunny, partly cloudy and windy. Table I depicts FluNearYou’s main features are: It locates diseases reported
some diseases and the weather variables that increases their in area through a map, allows reporting of flu with symptoms
propagation [13, 14]. and vaccination dates, locates nearby vaccines, push
TABLE I. TYPES OF DISEASES AND WEATHER VARIABLES
notifications to report symptoms and flu news. A mobile
application was created in 2011 to allow volunteers to report
Type of
Disease
Weather variables their symptoms and to identify local sources for vaccines [19].
disease Wind Humidity Temperature Their mission was to collect and share user reported data in a
Air-borne URTI free, timely and open way to the public, and to give the earliest
Conjunctivitis High Low High
Bronchitis
alert in case of disease propagation if ever a considerable
Water-borne Gastroenteritis Low High Low number of cases are being reported. The creators of the
Vector- Chikungunya application wished to give users the ability to report diseases
Low High High in real time and to list additional symptom options. They also
borne Dengue
wanted to provide a 2-way communication and give alerts to
Each disease has a different lifetime. That is, when a users to remind them to get vaccinated. Additionally, the
person contracts a disease, the disease will typically last for a future works included the analysis from other data sources
certain duration. Table II shows the different diseases and such as online videos, social media and radio to provide early
their approximate duration [15]. detection of diseases and alert users about health hazards in
their area.
TABLE II. APPROXIMATE DURATION OF DISEASES
Disease Duration/days
SickWeather [20] is an application that uses
URTI 9 crowdsourcing and social media monitoring to gather
Gastroenteritis 7 information about illnesses around. The application tracks all
Bronchitis 5 the illnesses on a map and provides alert of sickness that may
Chikungunya 8 be present in regions of the world along with forecasts. The
Dengue 20 main features are: alerts about nearby sicknesses, daily
Conjunctivitis 10 forecast on active illness, shares forecast on social networks,
According to the Mauritian National Health Report 2017 enables user to seek medical assistance, allows reporting in
[16], the four important communicable diseases in Mauritius any area and shows progress of illness 5 days’ back.
are: conjunctivitis, gastroenteritis, scabies and URTI. Predict and Beat Dengue [21] application was created in
order to control and prevent dengue outbreaks. It also employs
III. RELATED WORKS
machine learning, artificial intelligence to provide precautions
This section presents an overview of the existing about dengue for the users. The application allows the
healthcare crowdsourcing applications. reporting of dengue disease in a particular location,
submission of photo that could lead to dengue, alert someone
Founded by a dynamic group of software engineers and
if he has entered a dengue prone area and it makes use of
researchers at the Boston hospital, HealthMap [2] has been
artificial intelligence to assists and advice users who are sick.
used globally to report any outbreaks that may be happening.
The application enables its users to monitor real-time disease Veta [22] is a simple platform that allows users to report
reporting and propagations happening on the world map. and discover incidents of vector-borne diseases. Information
Additionally, it provides information about emerging diseases shared on Veta can be used to take necessary precautions and
and information about local health departments and prevent propagation of diseases. The following features are
governments. The main features of HealthMap include: included in this application: Alerts when someone reports a
reporting of any human or animal diseases, photo attachment disease, submits report on dengue, shares information about
during reporting, locating diseases occurring in the diseases or vaccines and monitors frequently visited locations.
neighbourhood, update on a 24/7/365 basis, information in
nine languages and alert of outbreaks near you. CrowdMed [23] is a platform where patients post their
problems and medical detectives submit diagnosis with
Figure 1 [17] is an application designed for users interested respect to the problems. A study conducted on the reality of
in medical cases. Healthcare specialists and medical students crowd-powered healthcare concluded that the application
use Figure 1 to communicate a medical issue with a photo and heavily relies on crowdsourcing to solve a patient’s problems.
a description. Other users of the application can instantly give However, the drawbacks are that there is no proper way to
feedback on the case through comments and they can also verify patient reported data and some patients may also report
follow the case. Through Figure 1, medical students can issues which may be unrealistic.
expand their knowledge on diseases and doctors can share
patients’ problems with their colleagues as well as find Although several healthcare crowdsourcing applications
potential solutions for special cases. This application, amongst exist, they are not widely adopted in Mauritius. Moreover, the
other features, allows to browse or comment on cases or give applications have a severe limitation in the sense that very few
an idea for treatment, post picture and description of patients’ can predict the propagation of the diseases. Furthermore, none
cases and send notification when a comment is added to one’s take into consideration the forthcoming weather forecasts in
post. their prediction. With changes in climatic conditions, it is vital
to predict the impact of a forthcoming weather conditions over
any existing outbreak of diseases. To our knowledge, there are
currently no application in Mauritius that can visually display
the status of diseases in real-time on a map and that can predict
their propagation. Only conventional ways are being used to
get the diseases status and to detect disease outbreaks. Thus,
there is a potential for a crowdsourcing application that can
display real-time information and also help in predicting the
propagation of diseases by taking into account the weather
forecasts.
IV. PROPOSED SYSTEM
This section shows the overall architecture of of our
crowdsourcing system, CrowdHealth, details the disease
propagation model and the marker expiry algorithms.
A. CrowdHealth System Architecture
Fig. 1 shows the system architecture of the proposed
model, highlighting its main components.
Fig. 1. CrowdHealth System Architecture
The proposal is to have four android mobile applications
to be used by the general public, doctors, pharmacists and the
Ministry of Health and Quality of Life respectively. The main
components of CrowdHealth are described below:
• Pharmacy: The pharmacist is going to report the name
and number of drugs sold on the application which will
then be saved in the cloud database. The number of
drugs sold will then be mapped onto an approximate
number of suspected diseases. The pharmacist will
also be able to add new drugs and the disease being
treated.
• Public: Users will be able to view the real-time status
of diseases throughout the island and also report a
disease using this application. Through the application,
they can also directly contact a doctor to seek medical
advice and even get a list of precautions.
• Doctor: After diagnosis, doctors will be able to report
cases of communicable diseases on behalf of the
patients and can also add new diseases along with their
duration and precautions.
• MOH: Officers of the Ministry of Health and Quality
of Life (MoHQL) can use this application to view the
real time status of diseases over the island. Weather
forecasts will also be retrieved and displayed. The
propagation of the diseases over a period of 5 days can
also be predicted. The officer can also generate an alert
in case of a high risk disease propagation that will
notify the public, doctors and pharmacists.
• Cloud database: The online repository where all the
reported cases of diseases will be saved. The training
set will also be saved on the cloud database and used
by the Artificial Neural Networks to perform the
predictions.
• Artificial Neural Networks: A component of machine
learning that simulates the brain and can learn complex
patterns through a training. This pattern is then applied
to data in the input layer for predicting the expected
number of cases in the near future [24]. This algorithm
has been extensively used in the medical field for the
past 30 years, particularly in predicting the outcomes
of cancer patients [25].
Whenever a disease is reported, a marker is added on the
corresponding location on the map. Based on the type of
disease reported and the weather forecasts in that specific area,
the system can predict the propagation of the diseases for the
next 5 days. The MoHQL can then take informed decisions by
raising alerts where appropriate. Fig. 2 illustrates how the
CrowdHealth system will work.
Fig. 2. CrowdHealth System – How it works
B. Disease Propagation Model
In the absence of a dataset for 2018, a dataset was obtained
from the Ministry of Health and Quality of Life and contained
the weekly number of cases recorded for URTI and
Gastroenteritis diseases for the year 2017. This dataset was
then converted to a daily estimate and then augmented with
weather variables, namely temperature, wind and humidity,
extracted from TimeAndDate website [26] for that
corresponding period (Fig. 3). This new dataset, an extract of
which is shown in Fig. 4, will then be used to train the
Artificial Neural Networks (Fig 5). In order to predict the
potential number of cases for a disease, the system will use the
number of markers for the current day (number of cases
reported today for a specific disease) from the crowdsourcing
applications. Finally, the new predicted data along with the
weather variables for that day will be saved to the cloud
database for future training and prediction. This process is
illustrated in Fig. 6.
C. Marker Expiry Algorithm
Generally, when a person catches a communicable
disease, the disease typically persists for a certain amount of
time. After that duration, usually the person will no longer be
infected. This information needs to be mirrored to the users in
the form of active markers. Whenever a user selects the report
activity, only the markers that have not expired, representing
people who are still infected with the disease, will be
displayed. The algorithm calculates the expiry date of each
disease based on the duration identified in Table II. If the
expiry date is after the current date, the details of those
diseases will be displayed in form of markers on the map; else,
the markers will not be displayed.
Fig. 3. Preparation of Training Set for Neural Network
Fig. 4. Extract of Training Set for Neural Network
Fig. 5. Neural Network Architecture
Fig. 6. Disease Propagation Prediction
V. PROTOTYPING AND TESTING
This section highlights the development environment used
to implement the prototype and the testing of the four
applications.
A. Development Environment
Android studio 3.1 with Android SDK version 26 was
installed on a Dell Laptop Inspiron 5559, with a Core i5 2.30
GHZ processor, 4 GB RAM and 450 GB storage capacity. The
following plugins was also installed in Android Studio for
implementing the applications: Google play services version
3.1.0 and One signal version 3.8.1.
The following libraries were also required: Play services
maps version 10.2.6, Play services location version 10.2.6,
Firebase auth version 10.2.6, Firebase core version 10.2.6,
Android graph library version 4.2.1 and WEKA library.
B. Testing
The four applications were successfully implemented, and
several test scenarios were devised to test the different
functionalities.
• Public Crowdsourcing Mobile Application
The crowdsourcing mobile application designed for the
public was successfully implemented, tested and allowed the
public to report their diseases and view the other reported
cases, amongst other functionalities. A colour coding scheme
was used to visually differentiate between the markers for the
different diseases, as shown in Fig. 7.
• Doctor Crowdsourcing Mobile Application
Among other functionalities, the application allows
doctors to view the history of reported diseases (a feature also
present in the other applications), to share their contact details
on the application so that they may be contacted by patients
and to report the number of illnesses on behalf of their patients
(Fig 8). This number is then converted to the corresponding
markers and displayed around the doctors GPS locations.
• Pharmacy Crowdsourcing Mobile Application
Among other functionalities, the application allows the
pharmacists to report the drugs sold and their corresponding
number, as shown in Fig. 9. The list of drugs included in the
application are the commonly used drugs to treat the 4 most
important communicable diseases in Mauritius namely:
conjunctivitis, gastroenteritis, scabies and URTI. The number
of drugs sold are then mapped onto an approximate number of
suspected diseases and displayed as markers around the GPS
locations of the corresponding pharmacy.
• Application for the Ministry
Officers of the Ministry of Health and Quality of Life can
use the application to view the real time status of diseases over
the island. The application can predict the probable number of
cases on the next day and display the relevant markers on the
map for a visual detection, as shown in Fig 10. The
propagation of the diseases in a specific region over a period
of 5 days can also be predicted (Fig. 11). Since the training set
contained data about URTI and Gastroenteritis only, the
propagation of only these two diseases were implemented and
tested. When deemed appropriate, the officers can also
generate an alert that notifies the public, doctors and
pharmacists about a possible disease outbreak (Fig. 12).
 VI. EVALUATION
Table III shows a comparison of the different features of
CrowdHealth with the similar systems identified in section II.
Under test conditions, the crowdsourcing applications worked
perfectly but have not yet been advertised and adopted by the
public. Therefore, to test the accuracy of the prediction, 70 out
of 90 rows of the Gastroenteritis dataset was used for training.
The remaining part of the dataset was used for prediction to
analyse how close the predicted value is to the actual value.
Different learning rate, momentum and training time were
applied to see which set gives a prediction closest to the actual
value. Table IV depicts the different values allocated to the
learning rate, momentum and training time. These different
sets were applied to the remaining rows in the dataset for
prediction and the results are shown in Fig. 13.
TABLE III. FEATURE COMPARISON TABLE
Features Crowd Veta Predict Sick- FluNe- Figure Health
Health and beat Weather arYou 1 Map
dengue
Fig. 7. Public Crowdsourcing Fig. 8. Doctor Crowdourcing
Report disease      
Mobile Application Mobile Application
Disease map showing      
disease reported by other
users
Automated notification to       
ask about health
Alert in case of epidemic      
Disease propagation       
prediction based on
weather
Call a doctor       
Precautions to take for      
disease contract
Disease reported history       
Report drugs sold       
Weather forecast       
Legend:  - feature present; - feature absent; - feature partially present

TABLE IV. DIFFERENT SETS APPLIED FOR EVALUATION

Set Learning Rate Momentum Training Time (ms)
1 0.1 0.2 2000
2 0.01 0.2 2000
3 0.1 0.8 3000
4 0.09 0.8 3000
5 0.08 0.8 3000
Fig. 9. Pharmacy Crowdsourcing Fig. 10. Prediction for the next 6 0.07 0.8 3000
Mobile Application day with markers on map

Fig. 11. Prediction for 5 days Fig. 12. Alerts received by Pulic

Fig. 13. Results of applying different sets

 A difference between the actual value and predicted value [2]
was first calculated for each value. The difference was
[3]
summed to get the total difference and then the total
percentage accuracy was calculated as in the formula below:
[4]
[5]
As it can be seen from the results, set 6 gives prediction [6]
closest to the actual value and has higher percentage accuracy.
Fig 14 shows predicted value and actual value for set 6. [7]
[8]
Predicted and Actual value
50 [9]
0 [10]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 http://www.who.int/denguecontrol/human/en/. [Accessed: 10- Sep-
[11]
Actual Value Predicted Value
Fig. 14. Difference between the actual and predicted values
[12]
VII. CONCLUSION
One of the missions of the Ministry of Health and Quality
[13]
of Life is to transform existing health services into a modern
high performing quality health system. Moreover, the ministry
wishes to harness the full potential of information technology
to empower people to live healthy lives. However, at the same [14]
time, Mauritius is prone to many communicable diseases. This
paper details the formulation of a system that displays in real-
time the disease status over the island. The system consists of
three mobile crowdsourcing applications that allows the [15]
public, doctors and pharmacies to report diseases and drugs
[16]
sales in real time. Data regarding reported cases of diseases
for the year 2017 were retrieved and augmented with the
corresponding daily weather information namely temperature,
humidity and wind for that year. The dataset was then used to [17]
train an artificial neural network machine learning algorithm
[18]
which could then predict the propagation of the diseases in the
near future using weather forecasts. The accuracy of 90%
indicates that such a system is viable and can be a good [19]
candidate for an event-based detection system and can
definitely help the ministry to achieve its set objectives.
The existing system can be enhanced in several ways such [20]
as by automatically inferring information from social media
posts or by using a chatbot application to retrieve symptoms [21]
which would have then been mapped onto the most
appropriate disease. The system could also be integrated with
the existing information system implemented in pharmacies. [22]
The prediction for other common diseases also could have
[23]
been considered if more datasets were made available. The use
of different machine learning algorithms, and consequently [24]
their percentage accuracy, could have been investigated.
Finally, it is also important to provide incentives to attract
users to the crowdsourcing applications and retain them. [25]
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