Decision Modelling Techniques MAT-1032

Lab Assessment 3

NAME: ARUN E SLOT: L13+L14

REG NO: 19MIY0036

1. A company produces high precision bolts so that the probability of a defect is

.05%. In a sample of 4,000 units, what is the probability of having more than 3
defects?

AIM:
To solve Binomial Distribution using the Microsoft Excel Software.

p = 0.05% = 0.0005

n = 4000

P(X>3) = P(X=4) + P(X=5) + …… + P(X=4000)

= 1 – P(X <= 3)

= 1- BINOMDIST(3,4000,0.0005,TRUE)

= 0.142831407

EXCEL OUTPUT:
CONCLUSION:
Probability of having more than 3 defects is 0.142831407

2. A large department store sells on average 100 MP3 players a week. Assuming
that purchases are as described in the above observation, what is the
probability that the store will have to turn away potential buyers before the end
if they stock 120 players? How many MP3 players should the store stock in order
to make sure that it has a 99% probability of being able to supply a week’s
demand?

AIM:
To find the answer to the question of a Poisson distribution using Microsoft
Excel Software.
λ = 100

P(X > 120) = 1 – P(X<=120)

= 1- POISSON(120,100,TRUE)

= 0.02266933

Number of MP3 players to stock so that there is 99% probability of supplying

a week’s demand

= POISSON_INV(0.99,100)

=124

EXCEL OUTPUT:
CONCLUSION:
Probability that the store will have to turn away potential buyers before the
end if they stock 120 players is 0.022669329

MP3 players that should the store stock in order to make sure that it has a 99%
probability of being able to supply a week’s demand is 124

3)Suppose that a containment in samples from a city’s water supply has a

mean of 500ppm and standard deviation of 100 ppm. What is the probability
that bacteria in a randomly selected water sample will be (i) less than 600
ppm, (ii) more than 600 ppm and (iii) between 400 and 600 ppm?

AIM:
To answer the questions of a normal distribution using Microsoft Excel
Software.

µ = 500

100 ppm

1)less than 600 ppm

P(X<600) = NORMDIST(600,500,100,TRUE)

= 0.84134475

2) more than 600 ppm

P(X>600) = 1 – P(X<=600)

= 0.15865525
3)between 400 and 600 ppm

P(400 < X < 600) = P(X < 600) – P(X < 400)

= NORMDIST(600,500,100,TRUE) - NORMDIST(400,500,100,TRUE)

= 0.68268949

EXCEL OUTPUT:

CONCLUSION:

The probability that bacteria in a randomly selected water sample will be less
than 600 ppm is 0.84

The probability that bacteria in a randomly selected water sample will be more
than 600 ppm is 0.16

The probability that bacteria in a randomly selected water sample will be

between 400 and 600 ppm is 0.68