CHAPTER 70 THE BINOMIAL AND POISSON DISTRIBUTIONS

EXERCISE 299 Page 767

1. Concrete blocks are tested and it is found that, on average, 7% fail to meet the required

specification. For a batch of 9 blocks, determine the probabilities that (a) three blocks and

(b) less than four blocks will fail to meet the specification.

Let probability of failure to meet specification, p = 0.07 and probability of success, q = 0.93

By the binomial expansion, hence,

= 0.5204 + 0.3525 + 0.1061 + 0.0186 + …

which corresponds to 0, 1, 2, 3, … failing to meet the specification.

(a) Probability that three blocks fail to meet specification = 0.0186

(b) Probability that less than four blocks fail = 0.5204 + 0.3525 + 0.1061 + 0.0186 = 0.9976

2. If the failure rate of the blocks in Problem 1 rises to 15%, find the probabilities that (a) no

blocks and (b) more than two blocks will fail to meet the specification in a batch of 9 blocks.

Let probability of failure to meet specification, p = 0.15 and probability of success, q = 0.85

By the binomial expansion, hence,

= 0.2316 + 0.3679 + 0.2597 + 0.1069 + …

which corresponds to 0, 1, 2, 3, … failing to meet the specification.

(a) Probability that no blocks fail to meet specification = 0.2316

(b) Probability that more than two blocks fail = 1 – (0.2316 + 0.3679 + 0.2597) = 0.1408

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3. The average number of employees absent from a firm each day is 4%. An office within the firm

has seven employees. Determine the probabilities that (a) no employee and (b) three employees

will be absent on a particular day.

Let p = 4% = 0.04 then q = 0.96 (i.e. 96% present)

which corresponds to 0, 1, 2, 3, …. employees being absent.

(a) The probability that no employee will be absent on a particular day = = 0.7514

(b) The probability that three employees will be absent on a particular day

= = 0.0019

4. A manufacturer estimates that 3% of his output of a small item is defective. Find the

probabilities that in a sample of 10 items (a) less than two and (b) more than two items will be

defective.

Let p = 3% = 0.03 then q = 0.97 (i.e. 97% non-defective)

= 0.7374 + 0.2281 + 0.0317 + 0.0026

which corresponds to 0, 1, 2, 3, …. items being defective.

(a) The probability that less than two items will be defective = 0.7374 + 0.2281 = 0.9655

(b) The probability that more than two items will be defective = 1 – (0.7374 + 0.2281 + 0.0317)

= 0.0028

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5. Five coins are tossed simultaneously. Determine the probabilities of having 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5

heads upwards, and draw a histogram depicting the results.

Let probability of a head, = 0.5 and the probability of a tail, = 0.5

= 0.03125 + 0.15625 + 0.3125 + 0.3125 + 0.15625 + 0.03125

which corresponds to 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 heads landing upwards.

A histogram depicting this data is shown below.

6. If the probability of rain falling during a particular period is 2/5, find the probabilities of having

0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 wet days in a week. Show these results on a histogram.

Let probability rain falling, p = 2/5 = 0.40 and the probability of rain not falling, q = 0.6

= 0.0280 + 0.1306 + 0.2613 + 0.2903 + 0.1935 + 0.0774 + 0.0172 + 0.0016

which corresponds to 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 wet days.

A histogram depicting this data is shown below.

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7. An automatic machine produces, on average, 10% of its components outside of the tolerance

required. In a sample of 10 components from this machine, determine the probability of having

three components outside of the tolerance required by assuming a binomial distribution.

Let the probability of a component being outside the tolerance, p = 10% = 0.1 and the probability of

a component being within tolerance, q = 0.9

which corresponds to the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, …. components being outside the tolerance.

The probability of having three components outside of the required tolerance

= = 0.0574

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EXERCISE 300 Page 770

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1. In problem 7 of Exercise 299, page 767, determine the probability of having three components

outside of the required tolerance using the Poisson distribution.

Average occurrence of a component being outside of tolerance,  = np = (10)(0.1) = 1

The probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, …. components outside of tolerance are given by the successive

terms of: =

The probability of three components being outside of tolerance = = 0.0613

2. The probability that an employee will go to hospital in a certain period of time is 0.0015. Use a

Poisson distribution to determine the probability of more than two employees going to hospital

during this period of time if there are 2000 employees on the payroll.

Average occurrence of the event,  = np = (2000)(0.0015) = 3

The probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, …. employees going to hospital are given by the successive terms of:

= 0.0498 + 0.1494 + 0.2240 + …

The probability of more than two employees going to hospital = 1 – (0.0498 + 0.1494 + 0.2240)

= 1 – 0.4232 = 0.5768

3. When packaging a product, a manufacturer finds that one packet in twenty is underweight.

Determine the probabilities that in a box of 72 packets (a) two and (b) less than four will be

underweight.

Probability of a packet being underweight, p = = 0.05 and n = 72,

Hence, the average occurrence of event,  = np = (72)(0.05) = 3.6

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The probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, ….packets being underweight are given by the successive terms of:

= 0.0273 + 0.0984 + 0.1771 + 0.2125 + …

(a) The probability that two will be underweight = 0.1771

(b) The probability that less than four will be underweight = sum of probabilities of 0, 1, 2 and 3

= 0.0273 + 0.0984 + 0.1771 + 0.2125

= 0.5153

4. A manufacturer estimates that 0.25% of his output of a component are defective. The

components are marketed in packets of 200. Determine the probability of a packet containing

less than three defective components.

Average occurrence of defective components,  = np = (200)(0.0025) = 0.5

The probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, …. defective components are given by the successive terms of:

= 0.6065 + 0.3033 + 0.0758 + …

The probability of a packet containing less than three defective components

= 0.6065 + 0.3033 + 0.0758 = 0.9856

5. The demand for a particular tool from a store is, on average, five times a day and the demand

follows a Poisson distribution. How many of these tools should be kept in the stores so that the

probability of there being one available when required is greater than 10%?

Average occurrence of demand,  = 5

The probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, … tools being demanded are given by the terms:

, , , , …. i.e. , , , , ….
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i.e. 0.0067, 0.0337, 0.0842, 0.1404, 0.1755, 0.1755, 0.1462, 0.1044, 0.0653, …

Hence, the probability of wanting a tool 8 times a day is 0.0653, i.e. 6.53% which is less than 10%.

Thus, 7 tools should be kept in the store so that the probability of there being one available when

required is greater than 10%.

6. Failure of a group of particular machine tools follows a Poisson distribution with a mean value

of 0.7. Determine the probabilities of 0,1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 failures in a week and present these

results on a histogram.

Mean value,  = 0.7

The probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 failures in a week are given by the terms:

, , , , and

i.e. , , , , and

i.e. 0.4966, 0.3476, 0.1217, 0.0284, 0.0050 and 0.0007

A histogram depicting these results is shown below:

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EXERCISE 301 Page 775

1. (b) 2. (c) 3. (a) 4. (c) 5. (d)

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