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Climate Modelling
3rd year, SA Bachelor

1. Introduction & General Concepts

Thanh Ngo-Duc
Department of Space & Applications, USTH
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Class organization
•  Theoretical hours (24h) & Practical hours (12h)
•  Python (& laptops)
•  On time (5-min rule)
•  3 absences without justification à no final exam, no
retake
•  There is no wrong question or answer

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Teaching materials
1.  Kendal McGuffie and Ann Henderson-Sellers, 2005: A
Climate Modelling Primer. John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
2.  Thomas Stocker, 2011: Introduction to Climate Modelling
3.  Lecture notes

USTH campus (2022)

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Components of the climate system

1.  Atmosphere
2.  Hydrosphere
3.  Cryosphere
4.  Land surface (solid earth)
5.  Biosphere: organic cover of the land masses & marine organisms.
6.  A six component à the anthroposphere à processes which are caused or altered by 5
humans

Components of the climate system

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Components of the climate system

Scales of Atmospheric Motions

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Climate system: Interactions

The non-linear interaction among the components leads to

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climate variability at a range of spatial and temporal scales

Climate interactions

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without interactions

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Climate system

External or human
forcing
internal interactions

Plate tectonics
ATM
Earth’s orbit
(Milankovitch
cycles) BIO Climate variations
Ice (internal responses)
Sun’s activity

Land
Anthropogenic Ocean
Surface
forcing

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How to quantify the response of the climate?

The response of the climate system to external or

human forcing is complicated by:
§  feedbacks
§  the non-linearity of many processes
§  different response times of the different components
to a given perturbation

à The only means available to calculate the response is

by using numerical models of the climate system.

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Climate model
Definition:

•  A Climate Model is a mathematical representation of the

physical, chemical, biological processes,… that determine
climate
à To gain quantitative insights into the behavior of the earth
system
à A simplification of the real system:
–  Physical processes simplification
–  Model resolution

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Are models Complex or Simple

Models are simplifications of the complexity of the nature

Box (1976) : “ ….all models are wrong some are useful. Accepting this
principle, the job is not so much in search of the true model but to select a
model that is appropriate for the problem in hand”.

A useful model is not the one which is true but the one that is informative –
Feldstein, 1982

Lastly, Models should be as simple as possible but not simpler - Einstein

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§  Climate model - an attempt to simulate many processes that

produce climate
§  The simulation is accomplished by describing the climate
system of basic physical laws
§  Model is comprised of series of equations expressing these
laws.
§  Climate models can be slow and costly to use, even on the
faster computer, and the results can only be approximations.
§  The objective is to understand the processes and to predict the
effects of changes and interactions.
§  The solutions start from some “initialized” state and investigate
the effects of changes in different components of climate
system.
§  Climate models are amongst the most complex
models in all of science
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•  Explain the basic (large-scale)

The Primitive Equation System dynamics of the atmosphere
•  In principle: possible to solve (7
unknowns = 7 equations)
•  In practice: analytical solutions
du u tan φ 1 ∂p not possible
−( f + )v + + Fx = 0
dt a ρ ∂x
(horizontal momentum)
dv u tan φ 1 ∂p
+( f + )u + + Fy = 0
dt a ρ ∂y
p = R ρT (ideal gaz)
∂p
+ gρ = 0
∂z (hydrostatic equilibrium)
dT Q
+ (γ −1)T ∇ ⋅ V = (thermodynamic energy)
dt cp
∂ρ
+ ∇ ⋅ ρV = 0 (mass continuity)
∂t
∂ρ w
+ ∇ ⋅ ρ w V = [sources − sinks] (water vapor mass continuity)
∂t

Development of climate/earth system models

§  A complete climate model contains physical descriptions of all five components
mentioned above and takes into consideration their coupling.
§  Some components may be described in a simplified form or even be prescribed

ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE SULPHUR CARBON CHEMISTRY

2000s ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE SULPHUR CARBON

2000s ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE SULPHUR

1990s ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE Component models

are constructed off-line
1990s ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN
and coupled in to the
1980s ATMOSPHERE LAND climate model when
sufficiently developed 18
1960s ATMOSPHERE

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Coupled Models = Increased Technical Complexity

Ocean GCMs are as complex as Atmosphere GCMs 20

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Vilhelm Bjerknes
(1862–1951)

(1904) to predict future states of the atmosphere, we need:

1.  A sufficiently accurate knowledge of the initial state of the atmosphere
2.  A sufficiently accurate knowledge of the laws of physics governing its
behaviour.

Richardson computed by hand the

pressure change at a single point.

It took him ~two years !

His ‘forecast’ was a catastrophic
failure:

Δp = 145 hPa in 6 hours
Lewis Fry Richardson
(1881–1953)

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Richardson’s Forecast Factory

Line: Moore’s Law

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 16 1 Introduction

1.5.2 Decrease in Arctic Sea Ice Cover Since Around 1960

The decrease in the Arctic ice cover is documented by direct observations as well
as by remote sensing. Since around 1960, the decrease in total area has accelerated
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(Fig. 1.13). Evidence from submarine missions also points to a drastic decrease in
the thickness of sea ice. A similar development is visible in all coupled climate
models which were used for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmen-
tal Panel on Climate Change, IPCC (2007). The models indicate an accelerated
decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice since around 1960. The simulations assume
an increase in CO2 from 1990 onwards, prescribed according to emission scenario
Role of Climate Models
A1B (rapid economic growth, balanced emphasis on all energy sources, see Naki-
cenovic et al. 2000). While observations and model simulations agree with negative
Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
Continental
warming
likely shows a
significant
anthropogenic
contribution
over the past 50
years

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Fig. 1.12 Global and continental evolution of the temperature since 1900, based on measure-
ments (bold line) and ensemble simulations with coupled climate models (bands). Only simulations
with a complete forcing which includes changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, observed volcanic
eruptions and variable solar radiation, show reasonable agreement with the observations over the
entire twentieth century (red bands). In case the effect of anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse
gases, aerosols) on the radiative balance is not taken into account, the global and continental-scale
increase in temperature cannot be simulated (blue bands). Figure from IPCC (2007), Summary for
Policymakers (Fig. SPM.4, p. 11).

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Question 1
•  How can we predict Climate in 50-100 years if we can’t
predict Weather two weeks ahead?

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Factors influencing climate

§  Incident solar radiation - variation with latitude

§  Altitude
§  Land cover
§  Ocean temperature and currents
§  Atmospheric composition
§  Closeness to large water bodies - distribution of land & water
§  Mountain barriers

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The climate cube: climate can be

viewed in at least three domains:
time, space, & human perception

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Global Radiation Balance of the Climate System

Trenberth et al. (2009)

Global Radiation Balance à Atmospheric circulation

More radiation at the equator à atmospheric circulation à balancing the thermal

distribution on Earth
à Those large-scale circulations should be taken into account by the models
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The Global Conveyor Belt

A simplified model of global
thermohaline circulation

Net energy transport from low latitudes to high latitudes in

the atmosphere & Ocean

è Climate models need to describe correctly the processes in the oceans

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& in the atmosphere

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Uncertainties

Robust adaptation to climate change, from Wilby and Dessai (2010) 35

(Practice#1) Daisy World

•  Download the daisyworld.py code provided by Andrew
Bennett from githup
•  https://gist.github.com/arbennett/
26c124aeeb1e397b9e35ab8f2047709a#file-daisyworld-
py
•  Run this code and compare the results with the code
provided (or you developed) last year

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