PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)

A project consists of 9 activities whose precedence relationships and their

estimates are shown in Table

Activity Time estimates (months)

Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
1-2 3 6 15
1-6 2 5 14
2-3 6 12 30
2-4 2 5 8
3-5 5 11 17
4-5 3 6 15
6-7 3 9 27
5-8 1 4 25
7-8 4 19 22

(a) Find the expected duration and variance of each activity

(b) Draw a project network
(c) Find the critical path and corresponding expected project completion time
(d) What is the probability of completing the project on or before 35 months?
 Expected
Activity Time estimates (months) duration Variance
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic (Months)
1-2 3 6 15 7 4
1-6 2 5 14 6 4
2-3 6 12 30 14 16
2-4 2 5 8 5 1
3-5 5 11 17 11 4
4-5 3 6 15 7 4
6-7 3 9 27 11 16
5-8 1 4 25 7 16
7-8 4 19 22 17 9

Ciriticcal Path 1-2-3-5-8

Expected duration of project
39 months
total variance for critical activities 40
Standard Dev 6.324555320337
Z -0.632455532
Required probability 0.263544628433
 14
2 3

5
7
5
7

1 4

6
11
6 7 17
5

17