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COVID-19 lockdown

in India

On the evening of 24 March 2020, the Government of India ordered a nationwide lockdown for
21 days, limiting movement of the entire 1.38 billion (138 crore) population of India as a
preventive measure against the COVID-19 pandemic in India.[1] It was ordered after a 14-hour
voluntary public curfew on 22 March, followed by enforcement of a series of regulations in the
countries' COVID-19 affected regions.[2][3] The lockdown was placed when the number of
confirmed positive coronavirus cases in India was approximately 500.[1] Upon its announcement,
a mass movement people across the country was described as the largest since the partition of
India in 1947.[4] Observers stated that the lockdown had slowed the growth rate of the pandemic
by 6 April to a rate of doubling every six days,[5] and by 18 April, to a rate of doubling every eight
days.[6]
As the end of the first lockdown period approached, state governments and other
advisory committees recommended extending the lockdown.[7] The governments of Odisha and
Punjab extended the state lockdowns to 1 May.[8] Maharashtra, Karnataka, West Bengal and
Telangana followed suit.[9][10] On 14 April, Prime minister Narendra Modi extended the
nationwide lockdown until 3 May, on written recommendation of governors and lieutenant
governors of all the states, with a conditional relaxations after 20 April for the regions where the
spread had been contained or was minimal.[11]
COVID-19 lockdown in India

Barricaded streets in Bhopal during the April 2020 lockdown

Date Nationwide lockdown:


Phase 1: 25 March 2020 – 14 April 2020
(21 days)
Phase 2: 15 April 2020 – 3 May 2020 (19 days)
Phase 3: 4 May 2020 – 17 May 2020 (14 days)
Phase 4: 18 May 2020 – 31 May 2020 (14 days)
Unlock:

Unlock 1.0: 1 June 2020 – 30 June 2020


(30 days)
Unlock 2.0: 1 July 2020 – 31 July 2020
(31 days)
Unlock 3.0: 1 August 2020 – 31 August 2020
(31 days)
Unlock 4.0: 1 September 2020 -
30 September 2020 (30 days)
Unlock 5.0: 1 October 2020 - 31 October 2020
(31 days)
Unlock 6.0: 1 November 2020 -
30 November 2020 (30 days)
Unlock 7.0: 1 December 2020 -
31 December 2020 (31 days)
Unlock 8.0: 1 January 2021 - 31 January 2021
(31 days)
Unlock 9.0: 1 February 2021 - 28 February 2021
(28 days)
Unlock 10.0: 1 March 2021 - 31 March 2021
(31 days)
Unlock 11.0: 1 April 2021 - 30 April 2021
(30 days)
Unlock 12.0: 1 May 2021 - 31 May 2021
(31 days)
Unlock 13.0: 1 June 2021 - 30 June 2021
(30 days)
Unlock 14.0: 1 July 2021 - 31 July 2021
(31 days)
Unlock 15.0: 1 August 2021 - 31 August 2021
(31 days)
Unlock 16.0 : 1 September 2021 -
30 September 2021 (30 days)
Unlock 17.0 : 1 October 2021 - 31 October 2021
(31 days)
Unlock 18.0: 1 November 2021-
30 November 2021 (30 days)
Unlock 19.0: 1 December 2021-
31 December 2021 (2 days)
Location India

Caused by COVID-19 pandemic in India

Goals To prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic


in India.

Methods All services and shops closed except


pharmacies, hospitals, banks, grocery shops
and other essential services
Closure of commercial and private
establishments (only work-from-home allowed)
Suspension of all fighting, gaming, training,
research institutions
Closure of all places of worship
Suspension of all non-essential public and
private transport
Prohibition of all social, political, sports,
entertainment, academic, cultural, religious
activities
school's were shut down hence online education
was found

Status Partially lifted

On 1 May, the Government of India extended the nationwide lockdown further by two weeks until
17 May. The Government divided all the districts into three zones based on the spread of the
virus—green, red, and orange—with relaxations applied accordingly.[12] On 17 May, the lockdown
was further extended till 31 May by the National Disaster Management Authority.[13]

On 30 May, it was announced that lockdown restrictions were to be lifted from then onwards,
while the ongoing lockdown would be further extended till 30 June for only the containment
zones. Services would be resumed in a phased manner starting from 8 June. It was termed as
"Unlock 1.0".[14] Modi later clarified that the lockdown phase in the country was over and that
'unlock' had already begun.[15]

The second phase of unlock, Unlock 2.0, was announced for the period of 1 to 31 July, with more
ease in restrictions.[16] Unlock 3.0 was announced for August.[17] Similarly, Unlock 4.0 was
announced for September[18] and Unlock 5.0 for the month of October.[19] In the same way,
Unlock 6.0 was announced for the month of November,[20] Unlock 7.0 was announced for the
month of December.[21]

In 2021, due to the largest wave of infection in the country, several state governments like Uttar
Pradesh,[22] Delhi[23] etc. have announced complete lockdowns in April 2021.

Background

Play media
Modi's address to the nation before the lockdown.

The Government of India confirmed India's first case of COVID-19 on 30 January 2020 in the
state of Kerala, when a university student from Wuhan travelled back to the state.[24] As the
number of confirmed COVID-19 positive cases closed 500, Modi on 19 March, asked all citizens
to observe 'Janata Curfew' (people's curfew) on Sunday, 22 March.[25] At the end of the curfew,
Modi stated: "Janata Curfew is just the beginning of a long battle against COVID-19". Following
this, while addressing the nation second time on the 24 March, he announced the nationwide
lockdown from midnight of that day, for a period of 21 days.[26] He said that the only solution to
control the spread of coronavirus was to break the cycle of transmission through social
distancing.[27] He also added that the lockdown would be enforced more strictly than the Janata
Curfew.[28]

Janata Curfew

The Janata Curfew (transl. People's curfew) was a 14-hour curfew on 22 March 2020 initiated by
Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India (from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m.).[29] Every person was asked to
obey the curfew, with exceptions for people of "essential services" such as police, medical
services, media, home delivery professionals, and firefighters. At 5 p.m. that day, all citizens
were asked to stand in their doorways, balconies or windows, and clap their hands or ring their
bells in appreciation for the professionals delivering these essential services.[30] People
belonging to National Cadet Corps and National Service Scheme were to enforce the curfew in
the country.[31] The Prime Minister also urged the youth to inform 10 others about Janata Curfew
and encourage everyone to observe the curfew.[31]

The lockdown restricted people from stepping out of their homes.[28] All transport services–
road, air and rail–were suspended, with exceptions for transportation of essential goods, fire,
police and emergency services.[32] Educational institutions, industrial establishments and
hospitality services were also suspended.[32] Services such as food shops, banks and ATMs,
petrol pumps, other essentials and their manufacturing are exempted.[33] The Home Ministry
stated that anyone who fails to follow the restrictions can face up to a year in jail.[32]

Relaxations

From 4 May 2020, the lockdown was eased with several relaxations in all zones per Ministry of
Home Affair's guidelines.[34]
Activities permitted and restricted in each zone (4 – 17 May 2020)

Allowed in zone ( / )
Activity
Red Orange Green

Railway and Metro services

Educational institutions

Cinema halls, malls, etc.

Public gatherings and such events

Places of worship

Non-essential movement between 7 p.m. to 7 a.m.

Inter/intra-district buses with 50% capacity

Taxis with 1 driver and 2 passengers

Shops/e-commerce dealing essential goods

Private offices with 33% capacity

Two-wheelers without pillion rider

Four-wheelers with 1 driver and 2 passengers

Inter-state movement of goods

As part of Unlock 2.0 in July, most activities are permitted outside of containment zones, except
educational institutions, international air travel, places of recreation (swimming pools,
gymnasiums, theatres, entertainment parks, bars, auditoriums, and assembly halls), and large
gatherings of any kind.[35]

One of the major development was around the re-opening of wine shops. As per the guidelines
of issued by the Ministry of Home Affairs, wine shops were allowed to re-open, however, people
were asked to follow the protocols of social distancing and as well as wearing a mask.[36] But in
effect, things panned out to be utterly chaotic as long queues gathered outside wine shops from
as early as 7 am.[37][38]

This led to State Governments and Municipal Corporations deciding to shut down wine shops
again in some places. (e.g. - Mumbai).[39] While some states decided to 'discourage alcohol
consumption' by levying special taxes on alcohol. Delhi imposed a 70% 'Special Corona Fees'.[40]
Andhra Pradesh increased the prices by 75%.[41] Tamil Nadu hiked the excise duty on India Made
Foreign Alcohol by 15%.[42]
Delhi also came up with a system of e-token to avoid long queues outside wine shops.[43] This
also lead to the online sale of alcohol in some states that was previously prohibited.[44]

Timeline

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a video conference during the lockdown.

Lockdown in 2020

Phase 1 (24 March – 14 April)

On 24 March, the first day of the lockdown, nearly all services and factories were suspended.[45]
People were hurrying to stock essentials in some parts.[46] Arrests across the states were made
for violating norms of lockdown such as venturing out for no emergency, opening businesses
and also home quarantine violations.[47] The government held meetings with e-commerce
websites and vendors to ensure a seamless supply of essential goods across the nation during
the lockdown period.[47] Several states announced relief funds for the poor and affected
people[47] while the central government was finalising a stimulus package.[48]

On 26 March, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a ₹170,000 crore (US$23 billion)


stimulus package to help those affected by the lockdown.[49] The package was aimed to provide
food security measures for poor households through direct cash transfers, free cereal and
cooking gas for three months.[50] It also provided insurance coverage for medical personnel.[49]

On 27 March, the Reserve Bank of India announced a slew of measures to help mitigate the
economic impacts of the lockdown.[51]
Prior to the announcement of the nationwide lockdown, on 22 March, the government had
announced that the Indian Railways would suspend passenger operations through 31 March.
The national rail network has maintained its freight operations during the lockdown, to transport
essential goods.[52] On 29 March, the Indian Railways announced that it would start services for
special parcel trains to transport essential goods, in addition to the regular freight service.[53]
The national rail operator also announced plans to convert coaches into isolation wards for
patients of COVID-19.[54] This has been described as the first time in 167 years that India's rail
network had been suspended,[55] although there was also a strike in 1974.[56]

Lamp lighting observed on 5 April 2020 during lockdown

On 5 April, citizens all over India cheered and showed solidarity with the health workers, police,
and all those fighting the disease by switching off the electric lights at home for 9 minutes from
9:00 p.m. to 9:09 p.m. and observed lighting diya, candle; and flashing torchlight and mobile
flashlight.[57][58]

As the end of the initial lockdown period came near, many state governments expressed their
decision to extend it till the end of April. Among them were Odisha,[59] Punjab,[60]
Maharashtra,[61] Karnataka with some relaxations,[9] West Bengal and Telangana.[10]

Towards the end of the initial period, the rate of growth of COVID infections in India had
significantly slowed, from a rate of doubling every three days before the lockdown to one of
doubling every eight days on 18 April.[6]

Phase 2 (15 April – 3 May)


On 14 April, PM Modi extended the nationwide lockdown till 5 May, with a conditional relaxation
promised after 20 April for the regions where the spread had been contained by then.[11] He said
that every town, every police station area and every state would be carefully evaluated to see if it
had contained the spread. The areas that were able to do so would be released from the
lockdown on 20 April. If any new cases emerged in those areas, lockdown could be
reimposed.[62]

On 16 April, lockdown areas were classified as "red zone", indicating the presence of infection
hotspots, "orange zone" indicating some infection, and "green zone" with no infections.[63]

The government also announced certain relaxations from 20 April, allowing agricultural
businesses, including dairy, aquaculture, and plantations, as well as shops selling farming
supplies, to open. Public works programmes were also allowed to reopen with instructions to
maintain social distancing. Cargo vehicles, including trucks, trains, and planes, would run. Banks
and government centres distributing benefits would open as well.[64]

On 25 April, small retail shops were allowed to open with half the staff. Again social distancing
norms were to be followed.[65]

On 29 April, The Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines for the states to allow inter-state
movement of the stranded persons. States have been asked to designate nodal authorities and
form protocols to receive and send such persons. States have also been asked to screen the
people, quarantine them, and do periodic health checkups.[66]

Phase 3 (4–17 May)

On 1 May, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and the Government of India (GoI) further
extended the lockdown period to two weeks beyond 4 May, with some relaxations.[67][68]
The
country has been split into 3 zones: red zones (130 districts), orange zones (284 districts), and
green zones (320
districts).[69] Red zones are those with high coronavirus cases and a high
doubling rate, orange zones are those with comparatively fewer cases than red zone and green
zones are those without any cases in the past 21 days. Normal movement is permitted in green
zones with buses limited to 50 percent capacity. Orange zones would allow only private and
hired vehicles but no public transportation. The red zones would remain under lockdown. The
zone classification would be revised once a week.[70]

Phase 4 (18–31 May)


On 17 May, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Ministry of Home
Affairs (MHA) extended the lockdown for a period for two weeks beyond 18 May, with additional
relaxations. Unlike the previous extensions, states were given a larger say in the demarcation of
Green, Orange and Red zones and the implementation roadmap. Red zones were further divided
into to containment and buffer zones. The local bodies were given the authority to demarcate
containment and buffer zones.[71][72][73]

Unlock

Unlock 1.0 (1–30 June)

The MHA issued fresh guidelines for June, stating that the phases of reopening would "have an
economic focus". Lockdown restrictions were only to be imposed in containment zones, while
activities were permitted in other zones in a phased manner. This first phase of reopening was
termed "Unlock 1.0"[14] and permitted shopping malls, religious places, hotels, and restaurants to
reopen from 8 June. Large gatherings were still banned,[74] but there were no restrictions on
interstate travel. Night curfews were in effect from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. in all areas and state
governments were allowed to impose suitable restrictions on all activities.[75]

In future phases of reopening, further activities are to be permitted. In Phase II, all educational
institutions are scheduled to reopen in July, pending consultations with state governments. In
Phase III, easing of restrictions on international air travel, operation of metros, and recreational
activities (swimming pools, gymnasiums, theatres, entertainment parks, bars, auditoriums, and
assembly halls) would be decided upon in August.[74]

Unlock 2.0 (1–31 July)

Phase II of Unlock began on 1 July under the guidelines and instructions of the MHA and the
NDMA. Lockdown measures were only imposed in containment zones. In all other areas, most
activities were permitted. Night curfews were in effect from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. in all areas. State
governments were allowed to put suitable restrictions on all activities, but state borders
remained open to all. Inter- and intrastate travel was permitted. Limited international travel was
permitted as part of the Vande Bharat Mission. Shops were permitted to allow more than five
persons at a time. Educational institutions, metros, recreational activities remained closed till 31
July. Only essential activities were permitted in containment zones while maintaining strict
parameter control and "intensive contact tracing, house-to-house surveillance, and other clinical
interventions". Further guidelines regarding usage of Aarogya Setu and masks were
reiterated.[16]
Unlock 3.0 (1–31 August)

Unlock 3.0 for August 2020 removed night curfews and permitted gymnasiums and yoga
centres to reopen from 5 August. Educational institutions would remain closed till 31 August. All
inter-and intrastate travel and transportation are permitted. Independence Day celebrations are
permitted with social distancing.[17] Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu imposed a lockdown for the
whole month, while West Bengal imposed lockdowns twice a week.[76]

Unlock 4.0 (1–30 September)

On 29 August 2020, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines for activities permitted in
Unlock 4.0. It said that "Lockdown shall remain in force in the Containment Zones till 30th
September 2020".[77] Outside the containment zone, however, some activities were given
permission. Metro Rail was allowed to be reopened in a graded manner from 7 September.[77]
Marriage functions with gatherings of up to 50 people and funereal/last rites ceremonies with up
to 20 people were permitted.[77] Religious, entertainment, political, sports, academic functions
and gatherings of up to 100 people were allowed.[77] Face coverings/masks were made
compulsory in public places, workplaces and during transport.[77]

Unlock 5.0 (1–31 October)

On 30 September 2020, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines for activities permitted in
Unlock 5.0.[78] For schools it has a preference for online learning if possible, but States and
Union Territories will be able to make those decisions from 15 October, in a graded manner.
Lockdown shall remain in force strictly in the Containment Zones till 30 November 2020.[79] Also,
swimming pools being used for training of sportsperson would be allowed to open.[78] Cinema
halls, that had remained close all this while, could finally be opened from 15 October 2020, with
a 50% of their seating capacity.[78] On 3 November the Government of Kerala opened its tourism
sector by reopening hill stations, beaches, national park, and inter-state public transport
movement

The Government Of India has decided to open all educational institutions by January 2021
including schools and colleges and universities across India. The Government of Kerala has
decided to open its school from December 2020.

Unlock 6.0 (1–30 November)

On 27 October 2020, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines for activities permitted in
Unlock 6.0.[80][81][82] The Ministry of Home Affairs did not make any new changes to the existing
Unlock 5.0 guidelines in its latest instructions for another set of unlocking and said that they
would continue to be implemented in the month of November too.[83] Also, a handful of states
have allowed opening up of more activities outside containment zones and announced partial
reopening of schools.[84] Lockdown has been enforced time and again in spite of attempts to
permanently move towards an unlock phase.[85] The government of India has extended the ban
on scheduled international flights till January 31.[86]

Lockdown in 2021

In February end 2021, India got hit by the largest COVID wave. It is cited that people started
becoming careless, not wearing masks and not following social distancing, around November-
April. This wave caused a rapid surge in cases and deaths. Cases started to rise by March 2021,
resulting in state-wide lockdowns. In Maharashtra there were total 4 phases of lockdowns from
April to June.

April 5- 15 June 2021 (Lockdown Phase)

When cases rapidly increased in Maharashtra, CM Uddhav warned people on March 28, 2021 to
imposed complete lockdown and night curfew was imposed. Schools and offices remained shut.
On 4 April 2021 Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray announced a lockdown till April 30. On 5
April 2021 everything began to close due to rise in COVID-19 second wave. Only online deliveries
were free at this stage. Films like Sooryavanshi, Bunty Aur Babli 2 got postphoned due to COVID-
19's 2nd Wave.

Several States And UTs Like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Rajasthan, Bihar, NCT Of Delhi,
Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, J&K, Ladakh, Goa,
Mizoram, Meghalaya, West Bengal, Uttarakhand, Puducherry, Telangana, Sikkim and Himachal
Pradesh imposed complete Lockdown whereas some like Punjab, Chandigarh, Gujarat, Andhra
Pradesh, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland Imposed Partial Lockdown and Major
Restrictions.

From 15 June 2021 , Many States started lifting lockdowns and restrictions and moved in Unlock
phase.

Impact
Food delivery services were banned by several state governments despite the central
government's approval.[87] Thousands of people emigrated out of major Indian cities, as they
became jobless after the lockdown.[88] Following the lockdown, India's electricity demand fell
down to a five-month low on 28 March 2020.[89] Many states were keen on opening up liquor
shops during the lockdown which was finally allowed in the 3rd phase beginning on 4 May.
Reports of a surge in illicit liquor sales and most importantly, drying up of revenue from liquor
sales was the main stimulation.[90][91]

Due to the lockdown, more than 350 deaths were reported as of 10 May, with reasons ranging
from starvation, suicides,[92] exhaustion,[93] road and rail accidents,[94] police brutality[95][96][97]
and denial of timely medical care.[98] Among the reported deaths, most were among the
marginalised migrants and labourers.[99][100]

Economic Impact

India had already been experiencing a prolonged economic slowdown.[101] The GDP growth rate
had fallen from 8.2% in January–March 2018 to 3.1% in January–March 2020.[102]

In the first quarter of the financial year 2020-2021, this number went into negative. The GDP
growth rate for April–June 2020 was -23.9%, which happened to be the worst ever in history.[103]
Crucial parameters like manufacturing, construction, trade, hotel industry saw a decline and slid
into negative. Manufacturing growth at -39.3%, Mining growth at -23.3%, Construction growth at
-50%, Trade & hotel industry growth at -47%.[103]

Migrant workers
Migrant workers stand in a queue for food at Delhi Government school during COVID-19 lockdown at Delhi

With factories and workplaces shut down, millions of migrant workers had to deal with the loss
of income, food shortages and uncertainty about their future.[104][105] Following this, many of
them and their families went hungry.[106] While government schemes ensured that the poor
would get additional rations due to the lockdown, the distribution system failed to be
effective.[107][108]

With no work and no money, thousands of migrant workers were seen walking or bicycling
hundreds of kilometres to go back to their native villages.[109] Many were arrested for violating
the lockdown[110] and some died of exhaustion[111] or in accidents on the roads.[112]

On 29 March 2020, the government ordered landlords to not demand rent and employers to pay
wages without deduction. It also announced that those who violated the lockdown were to be
sent to government-run quarantine facilities for 14 days.[113][114]

In its report to the Supreme Court of India on 31 March, the central government stated that the
migrant workers, apprehensive about their survival, moved in the panic created by fake news that
the lockdown would last for more than three months.[115][116]

In late March, the Uttar Pradesh government decided to arrange buses at Delhi's Anand Vihar
bus station to take the migrants back to their villages for free.[117] Migrants across the country
remained stranded till the last week of April, when the state governments were finally permitted
by the central government to operate buses, but not trains.[118]

On 1 May 2020, the central government allowed the Indian Railways to launch "Shramik Special"
trains for the migrant workers and others stranded.[119] Due to lack of coordination between
originating states and railways, reports were claiming that migrants were being charged for the
train tickets. The government faced criticism from the opposition.[120] The Railways later
clarified that it was bearing 85% of the total cost of running and the rest 15% which makes up
the ticket fare was being borne by the originating states.[121][122]

Despite the launching of special trains and buses by the government, the migrant workers chose
to either travel together in large groups. They did not wait their turn to board the government-
arranged transport, mainly due to starvation and eagerness to reach their homes soon.[123]
Additionally, they felt that going back to their hometowns, they could return to farming and take
up small jobs under the MNREGA.[124]
On 26 May 2020, the Supreme Court admitted that the problems of the migrants had still not
been solved and that there had been "inadequacies and certain lapses" on the part of the
governments. It thus ordered the Centre and States to provide free food, shelter, and transport to
stranded migrant workers.[125]

Food supply chain

The order issued by the Home Ministry on 24 March allowed the functioning of shops dealing
with food items as well as the manufacturing units and transportation of "essential goods".
However, the lack of clarity on "essential goods" meant that the policemen on the streets
stopped workers going to factories and the trucks carrying food items. Food industries also
faced shortages of labour because the workers were unable to reach workplaces and the factory
managers faced the fear of legal action. All these factors combined to result in shortages and a
rise in the prices of food items.[126] By the first week of April, essential industries such as
growing, harvesting, and food deliveries were allowed to operate.[127]

Relief

On 26 March 2020, the Indian government announced a relief package of $22.6 billion to assist
the poor population hit economically by the COVID-19 pandemic. The plan was to benefit the
migrant workers through cash transfers and initiatives for food security.[128] However, on 9 April
2020, economists and activists argued that a significant proportion of the affected population
was unable to avail the facilities. Only those registered with the federal food welfare scheme
were able to secure benefits.[129]

According to a Government of India report filed with the Supreme Court of India, as of 7 April,
state governments operated 22,567 relief camps for stranded migrant workers, of which 15,541
camps (amounting to 68% of all) were operated by Kerala, 1,135 camps by Maharashtra, 178
camps by Tamil Nadu and smaller numbers by other states. Non-governmental organisations
were operating 3,909 camps.[130]

On 12 May 2020, Narendra Modi announced that the government would provide 20 trillion
rupees ($266 billion) in support package in fiscal and monetary measures to support the
economy.[131]

Impact on environment
Rivers had become cleaner as industries were closed due to the lockdown.[132][133][134][135][136]
The quality of air had significantly improved during the lockdown especially in metropolitan
cities .[137]

Effectiveness

A poster for spreading awareness in India about the purpose of lockdown

People were seen breaching the lockdown and not following social distancing by crowding in
vegetable markets in some places.[138][139][140] On 29 March, Prime Minister Modi advised
against this, urging people to stay home in his Mann Ki Baat radio address.[141]

On 27 March 2020, the police arrested 8 people and registered a complaint against 150 people
in Hardoi for gathering at a mosque.[142] On 2 April 2020, thousands of people assembled at
temples in various parts of West Bengal defying the lockdown for celebrating Rama
Navami.[143][144] 12 members of Tablighi Jamaat were arrested on 5 April 2020 in Muzaffarnagar
for defying the lockdown and organising an event.[145] A priest in Andhra Pradesh was arrested
for defying the lockdown and organizing a gathering of 150 people in a church.[146]

According to a study at Shiv Nadar University, India could have witnessed a surge of 31,000
cases of disease between 24 March and 14 April without lockdown.[147] A group of researchers
at the University of Oxford who tracked the governmental policy measures to counter the
pandemic rated India's lockdown as one of the most stringent in the world, scoring "100 out of
100" on their tracker. They noted that India implemented school closures, border closure, travel
bans, etc. but they said it was too early to measure their success in containing the
pandemic.[148][149]

Shamika Ravi from Brookings Institution in India has noted that the growth rate of the pandemic
has slowed from doubling every three days before the lockdown to doubling every six days by 6
April. It was derailed in the intervening period by the Tablighi Jamaat super spreader event in
Nizamuddin.[5] By 25 April, it had further slowed to a rate of doubling every twelve days.[150]

In a routine press briefing on 22 May, Dr. VK Paul, chairman of the national task force on COVID-
19, along with officials from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,
announced that the growth rate of new cases came down to 5.5% on 15 May from 22.6% on 3
April. The doubling rate of cases stood at 13.5 days. The death rate decreased to 5.5% from
48.1% on 5 April.

Based on estimation models from various independent sources and MoSPI it was predicted that
lockdown (1.0 + 2.0) helped avert 14-29 lakh cases and 37,000-78,000 deaths till 15
May.[151][152][153]

Among various estimation models presented at the briefing the one by Boston Consulting Group
showed that 1.2M-210,000 lives were saved and 36-70 lakh cases were averted due to the
lockdown till 15 May.[151] Another model by Public Health Foundation of India predicted that
78,000 deaths were averted during the period.[151]

Reception

Henk Bekedam, WHO Representative to India, praised the response describing it as "timely,
comprehensive and robust".[2] WHO executive director, Mike Ryan said that lockdowns alone will
not eliminate coronavirus. He said that India must take necessary measures to prevent a second
and third wave of infections.[154] On 3 April 2020, Dr David Nabarro, WHO's special envoy on the
disease, said that the "Lockdown in India was early, far-sighted and courageous" and was better
than waiting for another 3 or 4 weeks.[155]

In late March, two researchers from the University of Cambridge came up with a new
mathematical model that predicts a flat 49-day countrywide lockdown or sustained lockdown
with periodic relaxation extending over two months may be necessary to prevent COVID-19
resurgence in India.[156]
According to The Economist, the lockdown was "all but certain to have exacerbated" the
devastation of the pandemic.[157]

The Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) issued a report in late March, in
collaboration with researchers from Johns Hopkins University and Princeton University, where it
said that a national lockdown is not "productive" and could cause "serious economic damage". It
advocated state-level lockdowns in the most affected states. Its models predicted that in the
best-case scenario, a peak of one million hospitalisations would be encountered in early
June.[158][159][160][a] In an op-ed in The New York Times, the CDDEP director Laxminarayan
explained that if the national lockdown finds good compliance, it would reduce the peak
infections in early May by 70 to 80 percent, but still 1 million would require hospitalisation and
critical care. He further hypothesised If the lockdown was not imposed the number of critical
patients would have reached 5-6 million.[162]

The CDDEP released another report on 20 April, again in collaboration with researchers from
Johns Hopkins University and Princeton University. This report discussed the "potential impact
of the lockdown". The study concluded that the lockdown would help in significantly slowing the
spread of COVID-19 in the country. It said that the lockdown would buy the government critical
precursory time to expand COVID-19 healthcare infrastructure, by keeping the hospitalisation
rates in check and preventing the overwhelming of existing healthcare facilities. The study also
said that the lockdown measures like physical distancing, ban on social gatherings, and
movement restrictions would further delay and reduce the peak of infections and
hospitalisation.[163]

Economist Jean Drèze stated that the lockdown had been "almost a death sentence" for the
underprivileged of the country, in an interview with News18. He went on to say, "The policies are
made or influenced by a class of people who pay little attention to the consequences for the
underprivileged".[164]

See also

Wikiquote has quotations related to: COVID-19 lockdown in India

COVID-19 lockdown in China

COVID-19 lockdown in Italy

Enhanced community quarantine in Luzon


Malaysian movement control order

Indonesia large-scale social restrictions

2020–21 Singapore circuit breaker measures

COVID-19 community quarantines in the Philippines

COVID-19 lockdowns

Notes

a. There was some confusion regarding the involvement of the Johns Hopkins University as the University
said that the use of its logo was unauthorised. However, the University's International Health Twitter
handle reaffirmed its association with the CDDEP and the report. The Princeton University also
acknowledged the affiliation of its researchers and pointed out that the work will be submitted to peer
review.[161]

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