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Investment Decisions 4
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
• Divide Accounting profits by the Average Investment / Equity in
the Project.
✓ Return on Capital:
ARR (RoC) Post-Tax Basis = EBIT*(1-t) /Average Investment
ARR (RoC) Pre-Tax Basis = EBIT /Average Investment
✓ Return on Equity:
ARR (RoE) = PAT / Average Equity
= EBIT *(1-t)/ Average Equity
Investment Decisions 5
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Particulars Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Average
EBDIT 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 20,000
Depreciation 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000
EBIT 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 12,000
Taxes @30% 600 1,200 1,800 2,400 3,600
EBIT*(1-t) 1,400 2,800 4,200 5,600 8,400 4,480
Investment Decisions 7
Return on Capital
Investment Decisions 8
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Acceptance Rule:
➢ if ARR > Minimum Acceptable Hurdle rate, Accept the Project
➢ if ARR < Minimum Acceptable Hurdle rate, Do Not Accept
Advantages:
✓ Uses readily available Accounting Information
✓ Easy to Comprehend
✓ Considers the entire Income Stream
Disadvantages:
❑ Considers Accounting Information – subject to manipulation
(Depreciation / Inventory Valuation method)
❑ Ignores TVM
❑ Works well with projects with large initial up-front
investments.
Investment Decisions 9
PAT Vs. Cash Flow
Investment Decisions 11
Payback Period
Investment Decisions 14
Payback Period
Payback
Project Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Period
A (5,000) 500 1,500 3,000 4,500 5,500 3 years
B (5,000) 500 4,500 3,000 1,500 800 2 years
C (5,000) 4,500 500 3,000 1,500 800 2 years
Investment Decisions 16
Net Present Value (NPV)
• NPV =
Sum of Present Value (at LESS Initial Investment
Hurdle rate) of Cash Inflows (or PV of Cash Outflows)
CFt N
NPV = t
- Initial Investment
t=1 (1+r)
0 1 2 3 4 5
912.16
✓ .
• Acceptance Criteria:
✓ if NPV > 0, accept the project
✓ If NPV < 0, do not accept the project
19
Investment Decisions
Net Present Value
Officekart wants to evaluate a project with the following cash flows:
Year Cash Flows
0 -15,000
1 5,000
2 5,000
3 10,000
If the required rate of return for Officekart is 12%, should it accept
the project using NPV? (what is the payback period?)
Year Net Cash Flow PVIF @ 12% Present Value
0 (15,000) 1.0000 (15,000.00)
1 5,000 0.8929 4,464.29
2 5,000 0.7972 3,985.97
3 10,000 0.7118 7,117.80
NPV@12% 568.06
Investment Decisions 20
Features of NPV
1. Considers Time Value of Money
2. Considers Cash Flows (and not Accounting Profits)
3. Considers all the Cash Flows
4. Reinvestment at hurdle rate: Intermediate cash flows
are assumed to be reinvested at the hurdle rate.
Investment Decisions 21
Features of NPV
5. Net Present Values are additive:
NPV(A+B) = NPV(A) + NPV(B)
✓ Value of firm = ∑ NPV of Projects in Place + ∑ NPV of
expected future projects
✓ When a firm terminates an existing project with –ve NPV ,
the value of firm would increase by the amount of –ve
NPV.
✓ When a firm sells an asset (division), price received would
affect the firm value . If price received > present value of
division, firm value shall increase by difference.
✓ When a firm makes an acquisition at a price that exceeds
the present value of the expected cash flows from the
acquisition (equal to accepting a –ve NPV project), its
Investment Decisions 22
Features of NPV
6. NPV allows for time-varying discount rates:
CF1 CF2 CF3 CFn
+ + +....+ - Initial Investment
(1+r1 ) (1+r1 )(1+r2 ) (1+r1 )(1+r2 )(1+r3 ) (1+r1 )(1+r2 )(1+r3 )...(1+rn )
o Discount rates may change due to changes in (a) Interest rates (b) Risk
characteristics of project, and (c) Financing mix
Investment Decisions 23
Features of NPV
You are trying to estimate the NPV of a 3-year project,
where the discount rates is expected to change over
time:
Year Cash Flows Discount Rate
0 -15,000 9.5%
1 5,000 10.5
2 5,000 11.5
3 10,000 12.5
What is the NPV of the Project? Would you accept it?
Investment Decisions 24
Features of NPV
Investment Decisions 25
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• IRR: the discount rate that equates the sum of
present values of Cash Inflows with the Initial
Investment.
-200 50 100 150
0 1 2 3
50 100 150
NPV@10% : 1
+ 2
+ 3
- 200 = 37.09
(1.10) (1.10) (1.10)
50 100 150
IRR : 1
+ 2
+ 3
= 200
(1+ IRR) (1+IRR) (1+IRR)
NPV
40
16% 11.65 20
20% (1.74) 0
24% (12.88) (20)-1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 29% 34% 39%
Investment Decisions 30
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Year Net Cash Flow PVIF @ 12% Present Value
0 (15,000) 1.0000 (15,000.00)
1 5,000 0.8929 4,464.29
2 5,000 0.7972 3,985.97
3 10,000 0.7118 7,117.80
NPV@12% 568.06
NPV@15% (296.29)
Investment Decisions 31
Do NPV and IRR always agree?
• In case following cases, both NPV and IRR will
give the same capital budgeting results:
✓Independent projects, and
✓Projects with Conventional cash flows.
• However, when either of these conditions are
not met, NPV and IRR may provide different
results.
Investment Decisions 32
Unconventional cash flows
(Multiple IRRs)
Year Cash Flow NPV Profile for Multiple IRR Project
0 -1000 80
1 800 60
2 1000 40
3 1300 20
0
IRR1 6.60% -20
IRR2 36.55% -40
Internal Rates of Return
-60
-80
-100
-120
150*(1.16)2= 202
Investment Decisions 35
Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)
Investment Decisions 36
Unconventional Cash Flows
(Projects with no up-front costs)
• In cases where the project costs is spread over
time,and end up with positive cash flows in
every period, there is no IRR!!!!
Investment Decisions 37
Unconventional Cash Flows
(Positive initial Cash Inflow(s) followed by outflow(s)
• In some cases, initially the cash flows are
positive followed by cash outflow (s) – Eg.
Insurance co receives insurance premium over
a period of time which is followed by one
outflow on maturity.
Investment Decisions 38
Mutually exclusive projects
Differences in Project Size:
Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 NPV @ 15% IRR
A -1,000 350 450 600 750 468 33.66%
B -10,000 3,000 3,500 4,500 5,500 1359 20.88%
Investment Decisions 39
Mutually exclusive projects
• Choice of project depends on the constrains in raising
finances for the projects.
• If the firm has the capacity to raise funds for all of its
projects, the NPV would provide the correct answer -
more expensive project need to be picked up over the
less expensive project.
Investment Decisions 40
Timing Problem
Differences in timing of Cash Flows:
Which of the two mutually exclusive projects be accepted, if the
hurdle rate is (a) 15% , (b) 8%?
Year
0 1 2 3 4 5
Investment Decisions 41
Timing Problem
Investment Decisions 42
Timing Problem
Investment Decisions 43
Timing Problem
If discount rate is more than
8.51% and less than 27.38%
(IRR of Project B), then Project
B is better
Project A
Crossover
rate 8.51%
Project B
Investment Decisions 44
Timing Problem
Crossover rate
Investment Decisions 45
Practice of Capital Budgeting
CFO Survey Results (USA) - Investment Evaluation Techniques
Source: Graham and Harvey, “The Theory and Practice of Finance: Evidence from the Field,”
Journal of Financial Economics 61 (2001), pp. 187-243.
Investment Decisions 46
Practice of Capital Budgeting
Indian Survey Results
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percentage
Source: Anand, M., 2002, “Corporate Finance Practices in India: A Survey”, Vikalpa, October-
December, Vol 27, No.4, pp 29-56
Investment Decisions 47
Mutually Exclusive Projects
Projects with Equal lives:
➢ Compare the NPVs: The simplest way of choosing among
mutually exclusive projects with equal lives is to compare the
NPV of each project and choose the one with the highest NPV.
➢ Differential Cash Flows: Compute the difference in cash flows
for each period and then compute the NPV.
CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3
Project A:
CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3
Project B:
Investment Decisions 49
Mutually Exclusive Projects
Projects with unequal lives: Equivalent Annuities
EA*PVIFA(n,r%)=NPV
NPV
EA =
PVIFA(n,r%)
Investment Decisions 50
Mutually Exclusive Projects
Projects with unequal lives: Equivalent Annuities
• Although, the NPVA > NPVB, but Project B yields higher EA than
Project A.
• Consistent with project replication approach 51
Investment Decisions
Mutually Exclusive Projects
You are a small business owner considering two alternatives for
your phone systems:
Plan A Plan B
Initial Cost $ 50,000 $ 120,000
Annual Maintenance cost $ 9,000 $6,000
Salvage Value $10,000 $ 20,000
Life 20 years 40 years
The discount rate is 8%. Which alternative would you choose?
NPV(A) = -50,000 -9,000*PVIFA(8%, 20 yrs) + 10,000*PVIF(8%, 20 yrs)
= $(136,218)
EA (A) = NPV/PVIFA(8%,20 yrs) = ($13,874)
Investment Decisions 55
Mutually Exclusive Projects
Investment Decisions 56
Mutually Exclusive Projects
Investment Decisions 57
Capital Rationing
• Sometimes, firms have limited funds at disposal for
investment purposes.
• NPV may prove inadequate as it is based on the
assumption that all good projects will be accepted.
• Under situations of Capital Rationing, the following
methods may be used:
➢ Profitability Index
➢ Higher Hurdle rate
Investment Decisions 58
Profitability Index (PI)
• Profitability Index is NPV per rupee of investment.
NPV of Cash Flows
PI =
Initial Investment
Investment Decisions 59
Profitability Index (PI)
Gagan Industries has Rs 100 million to invest in the current year in the
following projects:
Project
ProjectInitialInitial
Investment
InvestmentNPV NPV PI Cumm. Investment
AC 25 5 10 5 1.00 5
BG 40 35 20 20 0.57 40
CB 5 40 5 20 0.50 80
DA 100 25 25 10 0.40 105
EE 50 50 15 15 0.30 155
FF 70 70 20 20 0.29 225
GD 35 100 20 25 0.25 325
Cost of capital rationing
Disadvantages: constraint
▪ It assumes that capital rationing applies to the current period
only and does not include the investment requirement in
subsequent periods.
▪ If investment is spread over several years, PI would be
incorrect.
▪ Does
Investment not ensure that total investment will add up to the capital60
Decisions
Profitability Index (PI)
Pipli Pharma has Rs. 1 million allocated for Capital expenditures.
Project Investment NPV IRR (%)
(Rs 000s) (Rs 000s)
1 300 66 17.2
2 200 -4 10.7
3 250 43 16.6
4 100 14 12.1
5 100 7 11.8
6 350 63 18.0
7 400 48 13.5
Investment Decisions 61
Profitability Index (PI)
Project Investment NPV IRR (%) Profitability
(Rs 000s) (Rs 000s) Index
1 300 66 17.2 0.22
2 200 -4 10.7 -0.02
3 250 43 16.6 0.17
4 100 14 12.1 0.14
5 100 7 11.8 0.07
6 350 63 18.0 0.18
7 400 48 13.5 0.12
• Given the budget of Rs. 1 million, the best the company can do is
to accept Projects 1, 3, 4, and 6.
• If the company accepted all positive NPV projects, the market
value (compared to the market value under the budget limitation)
would increase by the NPV of Project 5 plus the NPV of Project 7:
Rs. 7,000 + Rs. 48,000 = Rs. 55,000. Thus, the budget limit costs
the company Rs. 55,000 in terms of its market value. 62
Investment Decisions
Higher Hurdle Rate
• Another way to deal with Capital Rationing is to consider a
higher hurdle rate.
• Consider a firm with a capital rationing constraint of Rs. 50
million and 10% as the true discount rate.
• The company has positive NPV projects involving initial
investment of Rs. 275 million.
• It increases the discount rate to 16%. At higher discount rate,
fewer projects would have positive NPV.
Investment Decisions 63
Factoring in Inflation
• Nominal vs. Real Interest rates:
(1+ iNominal) = (1+iReal)(1 + Inflation rate)
▪ Nominal Interest rate = 10%pa
▪ Inflation = 6% 1 + iNominal 1 .10
▪ Real Interest rate = -1= - 1 = 1.0377 - 1 = 3.78%
1 + inflation 1.06
Investment Decisions 65
Factoring in Inflation
Investment Decisions 66
Mid-Year Discounting
Investment Decisions 67
Capital Budgeting under Uncertainty
• Uncertainty means that more things can
happen than will happen.
• Tools to analyze under Uncertainty:
➢Sensitivity Analysis
➢Scenario Analysis
➢Break-even Analysis
Investment Decisions 68
Sensitivity Analysis
Investment Decisions 69
Scenario Analysis
Investment Decisions 70
Break - even Analysis
Investment Decisions 71