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Mathematical Modelling Technique of Two Independent Variable Civil

Engineering Data using Coefficient Equations Approach

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13th UNILAG ANNUAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE & FAIR 18 ENG 015

Mathematical Modelling Technique of Two Independent Variable Civil Engineering

Data using Coefficient Equations Approach
O.O. Komolafe, S.O. Ehikhuenmen, and Y.O. Abiodun
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of
Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria
Corresponding Author Email: ookomolafe@unilag.edu.ng
Abstract
Over time, various methods have been used to generate mathematical models that can
estimate values from a set of two independent variable Civil Engineering data. However,
most common modelling techniques may be quite cumbersome to use except with the aid of a
special modelling software. This research study focuses on the development of a
mathematical modelling technique called Coefficient Equations Approach. The Coefficient
Equations Approach presents another modelling technique that can make it easier for Civil
Engineering Professionals to develop mathematical models for a two independent variable
research data which can be applied for solving problems in various aspects of Civil and
Environmental Engineering. Equations are generated for each set of the first variable at
various intervals of the second variable to give a general form with a set of coefficients. A
similar approach of generating equations is carried out for the set of coefficients at various
intervals of the first variable. The equations generated are super imposed to form a unique
mathematical model for estimating values for a particular set of Civil Engineering data. The
equations used in this new method are limited to a combination of linear equations or
polynomials not greater than four degrees which depends on the pattern of the research data.
One prime significance of this research work is that the newly developed mathematical
modelling technique can also be applied in other fields of Engineering, Science and Statistics.
Keywords: coefficient equations approach, civil engineering data, two independent variable
data, mathematical modelling, polynomials
1.0 INTRODUCTION
A model is a testable representation of a system. There are many possible representations of a
single system. The representation of a system may be understood as a rationalization of
reality or a vision of a system through one angle (Dubois, 2018). Numerical modeling
comprises of four core steps; building of a mathematical model based on the physical
problems with appropriate assumption; development of a suitable numerical model; finding
the results by applying the model; and interpretation of the results with the aid of animations,
charts, tables or graphs and finally proposing a feasible solution (Anees et al., 2016).
The Modeling Process is the process of building a model from a real-world problem is a
tedious task. It often involves much iteration in a cycle as shown in Figure 1. This is the
traditional description of the modeling process, however the various stages of the modeling
cycle appear interconnected, demanding even more interaction between the subtasks (Bender,
1978).

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Real world Construct model

problems

Compute Collect data

solutions

Interprete results

Figure 1: Modeling cycle (Bender, 1978)

Throughout history, numerous mathematical models have been developed. Mathematical
models have been used long ago, and many problems have been formulated mathematically
since hundreds of years. In recent times, mathematical modelling has been adopted by
various researchers to explain the outcome of their study. For example, mathematical models
have been developed to capture the relationships between properties of sustainable concrete
and mixture design based independent variables using a numerical based or relative based
approach (Saridemir et al., 2009; Atici, 2011; Omran et al., 2016). Other researchers such as
You et al. (2017) have used models to classify the heating value of burning municipal solid
waste in circulating fluidized bed incinerators. Also, Talebizadeh & Moridnejad (2011) have
performed the uncertainty analysis on the forecast of lake level fluctuations. However, many
modelling techniques are very sophisticated and cumbersome to use in order to estimate or
predict any parameter or civil engineering property.
Therefore, the aim of this work is to define a new technique of mathematical modelling for
two independent variable civil engineering data called ‘Coefficient Equations Approach’.
This new technique is expected to help civil engineers and researchers to easily express their
two independent variable data in mathematical form.
2.0 METHODOLOGY
The Coefficient Equations Approach is a simple modelling technique for Civil Engineering
Data of low risk projects. It can also be regarded as a “Do It Yourself” modelling approach,
since one can use software such as Microsoft Excel®, MATLAB® and other similar tools to
generate equations for the new approach from a given data. The approach is currently
restricted to two independent variable data. For example, a data showing how the
compressive strength of concrete varies with increase in a pozzolan replacing cement and
also increasing water - cement ratio.
Assuming we have a given set of two independent variable civil engineering data i.e. a set of
data that has a dependent variable y affected by two independent variables (variable x and
variable z). The dependent variable y varies with variable x with values of x increasing from
0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, 8% and 10%. The dependent variable y also varies with variable z in the
same manner as variable x.
STEP 1:
From the given data set of two independent variable civil engineering data, having the
relationship given as:
𝑦 = 𝑓(𝑥, 𝑧) (1)

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An arrangement of the data in tabular form is shown below:

Table 1. Sample Two Variable Civil Engineering Data
Variable Variable z
x 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
0% 𝑦11 𝑦12 𝑦13 𝑦14 𝑦15 𝑦16
2% 𝑦21 𝑦22 𝑦23 𝑦24 𝑦25 𝑦26
4% 𝑦31 𝑦32 𝑦33 𝑦34 𝑦35 𝑦36
6% 𝑦41 𝑦42 𝑦43 𝑦44 𝑦45 𝑦46
8% 𝑦51 𝑦52 𝑦53 𝑦54 𝑦55 𝑦56
10% 𝑦61 𝑦62 𝑦63 𝑦64 𝑦65 𝑦66

The Coefficient Equations Approach will be more precise with higher number of rows and
columns of values of y. Also, having equal set of intervals in variable x and equal set of
intervals in variable z* can improve the accuracy of the final equation generated using the
Coefficient Equations Approach. It is recommended that the number of rows (for intervals of
variable x) and columns (for intervals of variable z*) should not be less than four in order to
be able to generate and choose between various equation forms. From the given data, there
are 6 number of rows and columns respectively. Also, coefficients in all the equations to be
generated using the Coefficient Equations Approach should be in scientific form with a
minimum of 5 Decimal places in order to improve precision (e.g. 2.309762E-02 is in
scientific form with six decimal places).
*
The portion of the text here has been edited for correction (for instance, variable z was originally written as variable y).

STEP 2:
Generate equations for the base variable (selecting variable x as base variable) at intervals of
variable z. This may involve splitting the main table into smaller tables. An example is shown
below for values of y at 0% of variable x.
Table 2. Sample Two Variable Civil Engineering Data in split form
Variable z
Variable x
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
0% 𝑦11 𝑦12 𝑦13 𝑦14 𝑦15 𝑦16

Continue the above process for all values of y at each interval of variable x. The equations
can be generated using software such as Microsoft Excel®, MATLAB® or other similar
tools. The preferable plot should be the scatter plot connected with lines for all graphs when
using the Coefficient Equations Approach to observe how the trend line behaves with the
plot.
The general form of equation to be selected can be either linear, two-degree polynomial,
three-degree polynomial or four-degree polynomial. The general form of equation selected
should be consistent throughout step 2 (this step). Also, the form of the equation to be
selected will depend on the behavior of the trend line with the pattern of the plot from the
research data. Hence, caution needs to be taken when using the four-degree polynomial by
observing how the trend line visibly behaves with the plot. If the trend line does not behave
properly, lesser polynomial degrees may be selected. Additionally, the form of equation to be
selected may depend on the higher coefficient of determination (R²) value after considering
the possible forms of equations that can be used.
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𝑦 = 𝑎𝑧 4 + 𝑏𝑧 3 + 𝑐𝑧 2 + 𝑑𝑧 + 𝑒 (Four-degree polynomial) (2)

𝑦 = 𝑎𝑧 3 + 𝑏𝑧 2 + 𝑐𝑧 + 𝑑 (Three-degree polynomial) (3)
𝑦 = 𝑎𝑧 2 + 𝑏𝑧 + 𝑐 (Two-degree polynomial) (4)
𝑦 = 𝑎𝑧 + 𝑏 (Linear equation) (5)
Where: a, b, c, d and e are coefficients of the general form equation.
STEP 3:
A Table of Coefficients should be generated for each interval of variable x. If the form of
equation selected from step 2 is a three-degree polynomial, then the table of coefficients for
the sample data is given as:
Table 3. Table of Coefficients*
Variable Coefficients
x a b c d
0% 𝑤11 𝑤12 𝑤13 𝑤14
2% 𝑤21 𝑤22 𝑤23 𝑤24
4% 𝑤31 𝑤32 𝑤33 𝑤34
6% 𝑤41 𝑤42 𝑤43 𝑤44
8% 𝑤51 𝑤52 𝑤53 𝑤54
10% 𝑤61 𝑤62 𝑤63 𝑤64
Where: w11, w12, … are the coefficients from the generated equation.
STEP 4:
Generate equations for each of the coefficients at intervals of variable x. This may involve
splitting the table of coefficients into smaller tables (a similar process was done in step 2).
Follow the remaining processes in step 2, but this time for all values of each coefficient at
varying intervals of variable x. Therefore, there will be an equation for coefficient a, b, c and
d respectively which may either be a linear, two-degree, three-degree polynomial or four-
degree polynomial.
STEP 5:
Replace the coefficients (a, b, c and d) with their respective equations generated in step 4.
Assuming that the form of equations generated for the coefficients are also three-degree
polynomials. Therefore, superimposing the equations generated in step 4 with the equations
generated in step 2, we will finally have:
𝑦 = (𝑎𝑎 𝑥 3 + 𝑏𝑎 𝑥 2 + 𝑐𝑎 𝑥 + 𝑑𝑎 )𝑧 3 + (𝑎𝑏 𝑥 3 + 𝑏𝑏 𝑥 2 + 𝑐𝑏 𝑥 + 𝑑𝑏 )𝑧 2 + (𝑎𝑐 𝑥 3 + 𝑏𝑐 𝑥 2 + 𝑐𝑐 𝑥 +
𝑑𝑐 )𝑧 + (𝑎𝑑 𝑥 3 + 𝑏𝑑 𝑥 2 + 𝑐𝑑 𝑥 + 𝑑𝑑 ) (6)
The equation above is the final equation generated using the Coefficient Equations Approach.
NOTES:
Since each of the equation generated using the Coefficient Equations Approach have their
individual coefficients of determination (R²) values. One way to assess the final equation will
be to have a coefficient called the ‘Reliability of the Coefficients of Determination’ (R R2)
which is the least R² value from the consideration of all the R² values of the equations
generated from step 1 to step 5.

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The whole approach based on the sample data in this explanation can also be done if the
sample data is swapped in orientation where intervals of variable z will be the rows and
intervals of variable x will be the columns. A comparison can then be made if necessary to
find which of the two orientations using the Coefficient Equations Approach will give a
higher Reliability of the Coefficients of Determination. Although, this check may not always
be necessary.
3.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
3.1. Sample Structural Engineering Data
The sample data used to test the Coefficient Equations Approach from a structural
perspective was adapted from Abalaka & Okoli (2013). The table shows how water cured
compressive strength (N/mm²) of concrete containing varying percentages of pre-soaked rice
husk ash (RHA) at free water-cement ratio of 0.30 also varies with curing days. The data is
shown in Table 4.
Table 4. Structural Engineering Sample Data {Adapted from Abalaka & Okoli (2013)}

RHA Curing Days

Replacement
(%) 3 7 14 28 90

0 36.04 40.02 47.38 49.49 49.95

5 42.7 43.54 48.14 55.52 59.04
10 35.09 43.88 48.55 52.95 60.04
15 31.9 41.66 49.16 54.28 57.74
20 24.14 32.83 42.18 48.33 51.2

Equations Generated (for each of the Curing Days considered)

3 days = -1.84533E-03A4 + 8.02800E-02A3 - 1.16667E+00A2 + 5.38900E+00A + 3.60400E+01
(R² = 1.000) (7)
7 days = -3.11333E-04A4 + 1.01667E-02A3 - 1.61617E-01A2 + 1.29683E+00A + 4.00200E+01
(R² = 1.000) (8)
14 days = -5.56000E-04A4 + 1.74133E-02A3 - 1.70900E-01A2 + 6.40667E-01A + 4.73800E+01
(R² = 1.000) (9)
28 days = -1.57867E-03A4 + 6.40267E-02A3 - 8.56133E-01A2 + 4.08333E+00A + 4.94900E+01
(R² = 1.000) (10)
90 days = -3.82000E-04A4 + 1.78467E-02A3 - 3.62650E-01A2 + 3.23283E+00A + 4.99500E+01
(R² = 1.000) (11)
Where: fcu= Compressive strength (N/mm2) D = Curing Days
A = RHA Replacement (%)

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Therefore; y = aA⁴ + bA³ + cA² +dA + e (12)

Where; a, b, c, d and e = Equation coefficients
Coefficients Equations
a = -1.62366E-08 D⁴ + 2.29338E-06 D³ - 8.63441E-05 D² + 1.07518E-03D – 4.35438E-03
(R² = 1.000) (13)
b = 7.03121E-07 D⁴ - 9.96960E-05 D³ + 3.78851E-03 D² - 4.79452E-02D + 1.92654E-01 (R²
= 1.000) (14)
c = -9.09727E-06 D⁴ + 1.30086E-03 D³ - 5.04080E-02 D² + 6.57851E-01D – 2.72094 (R² =
1.000) (15)
d = 2.86935E-05 D⁴ - 4.22442E-03 D³ + 1.73960E-01 D² - 2.44556 D + 1.12718E+01 (R² =
1.000) (16)
e = 2.77573E-05 D⁴ - 3.36422E-03 D³ - 7.43519E-02 D² + 5.01155E-01D – 3.39560E+01 (R²
= 1.000) (17)
Table 5. Table of Coefficients for the Structural Engineering Sample Data

Curing Age Coefficients

(days) a b c d e

-1.84533E- 8.02800E- - 5.38900E+00 3.60400E+01

3
03 02 1.16667E+00
-3.11333E- 1.01667E- -1.61617E-01 1.29683E+00 4.00200E+01
7
04 02
-5.56000E- 1.74133E- -1.70900E-01 6.40667E-01 4.73800E+01
14
04 02
-1.57867E- 6.40267E- -8.56133E-01 4.08333E+00 4.94900E+01
28
03 02
-3.82000E- 1.78467E-
90 04 02 -3.62650E-01 3.23283E+00 4.99500E+01

Final generated equations using Coefficient Equations Approach

Compressive strength (y) =
(-1.62366E-08 D⁴ + 2.29338E-06 D³ - 8.63441E-05 D² + 1.07518E-03 D – 4.35438E-03) A⁴
+ (7.03121E-07 D⁴ - 9.96960E-05 D³ + 3.78851E-03 D² - 4.79452E-02 D + 1.92654E-01) A³
+ (-9.09727E-06 D⁴ + 1.30086E-03 D³ - 5.04080E-02 D² + 6.57851E-01 D – 2.72094) A2 +
(2.86935E-05 D⁴ - 4.22442E-03 D³ + 1.73960E-01 D² - 2.44556 D + 1.12718E+01) A +
(2.77573E-05 D⁴ - 3.36422E-03 D³ - 7.43519E-02 D² + 5.01155E-01 D – 3.39560E+01)
(18)
Reliability of Coefficient of Determination (RR2); RR2 = 1.000

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From the Structural Engineering sample data evaluated, it can be observed that the data did
not have regular intervals across the rows. Four-degree polynomials were also generated for
all equations using the coefficient equations approach. The individual equations generated
were also in scientific form of 5 decimal places which was the minimum specified in the
methodology and this helped in giving close results when compared with the original data.
The reliability of the coefficient of determination (RR2) obtained was 1.000 (100 %) which is
a good indication that the percentage difference between the values from the original data and
the values derived from the equation will be equal to or almost 0 %. It was also observed that
the final equation did not give accurate or precise values at intermediate points that were not
provided in the data. This was probably because the trend line for some of the equations
generated did not behave properly with the plot at intermediate points. However, the results
from the final equation generated gave almost precise values with a difference very close to 0
% for all specified intervals in the original data. The values obtained from the final equation
were not exact due to approximation error which can be improved by increasing the number
of decimal places for the equations generated in scientific form.
3.2. Sample Geo-Transportation Engineering Data*
From the research work on the Stabilization of Black Cotton Soil with Lime-Iron Ore Tailing
Blend (Etim, 2015; Etim et al., 2017). The coefficient equations approach can be used to
develop mathematical models for estimating the UCS for Soil Lime-IOT Mixtures.

Table 6: Test Results of Unconfined Compressive Strength (28 days curing) for Soil Lime-
IOT Mixtures (BSL Compaction) (Etim, 2015; Etim et al., 2017)
IOT Lime Content (%)
Content
0 2 4 6 8
(%))
0 528.37 985.88 1192.06 1343.16 1680.23
2 667.55 1122.46 1417.85 1654.15 1841.10
4 707.22 1229.17 1552.88 1781.71 1961.70
6 755.84 1301.19 1586.57 1898.90 2014.86
8 890.06 1443.90 1637.59 1936.11 2042.37
10 468.29 1076.25 1397.25 1595.05 1793.33

Equations Generated (for each percentage of IOT Content considered)

0 % = 4.55521E+00L3 - 5.99475E+01L2 + 3.32029E+02L + 5.27730E+02 (R² = 0.999) (19)
2 % = 1.14760E+00L3 - 2.43964E+01L2 + 2.68419E+02L + 6.68846E+02 (R² = 0.999) (20)
4 % = 1.55625E+00L3 - 3.25821E+01L2 + 3.17867E+02L + 7.08039E+02 (R² = 0.999) (21)
6 % = 6.62500E-01L3 - 2.28041E+01L2 + 2.97410E+02L + 7.63129E+02 (R² = 0.996) (22)
8 % = 1.74885E+00L3 - 3.50993E+01L2 + 3.12906E+02L + 9.00947E+02 (R² = 0.990) (23)
10 % = 2.99417E+00L3 - 5.27614E+01L2 + 3.96095E+02L + 4.68863E+02 (R² = 0.999) (24)
A polynomial function was selected based on the coefficient of determination and the
expression is presented below.
Three-degree Polynomial

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y = aL3 +bL2 +cL + d (25)

Where:
y = Unconfined Compressive Strength (N/mm2)
I = Percentage replacement of Iron Ore Tailing Content
L = Percentage replacement of Lime content
Coefficients Equations Generated
a = 4.29366E-03I4 - 9.56405E-02I3 + 7.89978E-01I2 - 2.77478E+00I + 4.50162E+00 (R² = 0.9292)
(26)
b = -5.85862E-02I4 + 1.25475E+00I3 - 9.70438E+00I2 + 3.07473E+01I - 5.93186E+01 (R² = 0.9136)
(27)
c = 2.79561E-01I4 - 5.48619E+00I3 + 3.54411E+01I2 - 7.86582E+01I + 3.30589E+02 (R² = 0.9429)
(28)
d = -1.00319E+00I4 + 1.75876E+01I3 - 9.71402E+01I2 + 2.10471E+02I + 5.25077E+02 (R² =
0.9857) (29)
Table 7: Coefficient for Iron Ore Tailing Contents Equations
Coefficients
IOT Content (%)
a b c d
0 4.55521E+00 - 5.99475E+01 3.32029E+02 5.27730E+02
2 1.14760E+00 - 2.43964E+01 2.68419E+02 6.68846E+02
4 1.55625E+00 - 3.25821E+01 3.17867E+02 7.08039E+02
6 6.62500E-01 - 2.28041E+01 2.97410E+02 7.63129E+02
8 1.74885E+00 - 3.50993E+01 3.12906E+02 9.00947E+02
10 2.99417E+00 - 5.27614E+01 3.96095E+02 4.68863E+02
Final generated equations using Coefficient Equations Approach
Unconfined Compressive Strength (y) =
(4.29366E-03 I4 - 9.56405E-02 I3 + 7.89978E-01 I2 - 2.77478 I + 4.50162) L3 + (-5.85862E-02 I4
+ 1.25475E+00 I3 - 9.70438E+00 I2 + 3.07473E+01 I - 5.93186E+01) L2 + (2.79561E-01 I4 -
5.48619E+00 I3 + 3.54411E+01 I2 - 7.86582E+01 I + 3.30589E+02) L + (-1.00319E+00 I4 +
1.75876E+01 I3 - 9.71402E+01 I2 + 2.10471E+02 I + 5.25077E+02) (30)
Reliability of Coefficient of Determination (RR2); RR2 = 0.913581

From the mathematical model generated, it was observed that more precise results were
obtained for the generated equation in scientific form of 5 decimal places. The mathematical
model developed had a polynomial function of three and four degrees and the least
coefficient of determination obtained among all models was 0.9136. It can be concluded that
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the developed model using Coefficient Equations approach can precisely estimate the
Unconfined Compressive Strength for Soil Lime-IOT Mixtures

4.0 CONCLUSION
This research study has brought to birth a new mathematical modelling technique called the
‘Coefficient Equations Approach’. This developed approach has been focused on only two
variable civil engineering data. It can also be regarded as a “Do It Yourself” modelling
approach, since one can use software such as Microsoft Excel®, MATLAB® and other
similar tools to generate equations for the new approach from a given data. The coefficient
equations approach is found to give more precise values when regular intervals are provided
in the data. The test data used in this study to test this new modelling technique reveals that
the equations generated should be in scientific form having a high number of decimal places
with a minimum of 5 decimal places.
The trend line of the equations generated should be observed. If the trend line does not
behave properly with the plot, other general equation forms such as a linear equation or a
polynomial not greater than four degrees can be selected. The coefficient equations approach
is an effective mathematical modelling technique specifically for estimating values at various
points or intervals provided in the data. In some cases, when used at intermediate points that
are not provided in the data, there may be some variation especially when the trend line for
some equations generated do not behave properly with the plot at intermediate points.
Additionally, the coefficient equations approach can be applied for low risk projects in other
fields of Engineering, Science and Statistics, making the new mathematical modelling
technique a useful tool for various disciplines.

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Atici, U. (2011). Prediction of the strength of mineral admixture concrete using multivariable
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University, Zaria, Nigeria.
Etim, R. K., Eberemu, A. O., & Osinubi, K. J. (2017). Stabilization of black cotton soil with
lime and iron ore tailings admixture. Transportation Geotechnics, 10, 85–95.
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 13th UNILAG ANNUAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE & FAIR 18 ENG 015

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predicting compressive strength of environmentally friendly concrete. J. Comput. Civil.
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effects of GGBFS on compressive strength of concrete by artificial neural networks and
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Talebizadeh, M., & Moridnejad, A. (2011). Uncertainty analysis for the forecast of lake level
fluctuations using ensembles of ANN and ANFIS models. Expert Systems with
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You, H., Ma, Z., Tang, Y., Wang, Y., Yan, J., Ni, M., & Huang, Q. (2017). Comparison of
ANN (MLP), ANFIS, SVM, and RF models for the online classification of heating value
of burning municipal solid waste in circulating fluidized bed incinerators. Waste
Management.

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28 – 30 August, 2018 AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE HUMANITIES & SCIENCES

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