BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE, PILANI

WORK INTEGRATED LEARNING PROGRAMMES

Course Title DECISION ANALYSIS

Course No(s) MBA ZG535/ MM ZG535 / QM ZG535

Credit Units Four

Credit Model 3+1+0

Course Author Prof. PB Venkataraman

Version No Rev 5

Date 23-Dec-2018

COURSE OBJECTIVES

We make decisions every day. Some decisions are routine but some have a profound impact on our
life. Gaining competency in such a vital subject is highly desirable both for personal and professional
wellbeing. The objective of this course is to provide an opportunity to gain this mastery: to be able to
achieve clarity of action in making any decision on which we focus our attention.

TEXT BOOKS:

T1 Michael A. Roberto., The Art of Critical Decision Making, Audible.com, 2013.

T2 Harvard Business Essentials: Decision Making – 5 steps for better results,
Harvard Review Business Press, 17 June 2010.
T3 Ronald A.Howard., Ali E.Abbas., Foundations of Decision Analysis (eLibrary)

REFERENCE BOOK(S) & OTHER RESOURCES:

R1 On Making Smart Decisions, Harvard Business Review., 2013

R2 Ralph L.Keeney., Value-Focused Thinking, Harvard University Press, 1996.

R3 Alternatives: The Source of Superior Solutions, HBR., 2006.

R4 Diagnosing Your Decision, How To Make Smarter Decisions, HBR, Nov-2013.

R5 James Surowiecki, The wisdom of crowds, Little Brown Book Group, Mar-2005.

R6 J Edward Russo and Paul J.H. Schoemaker., Decision Traps – The Ten Barriers to
Brilliant Decision-Making And How To Overcome Them, Fireside Simon &
Schuster Inc., 1st edition., 1990.
LEARNING OUTCOMES:

# Learning Outcomes

Explain the fundamentals of decision making process and define the quality of a
LO1
decision.

LO2 Relate to the cognitive biases and interpret one’s decision objectively.

Apply methods to reduce the impact of cognitive biases in organization and

LO3
personal decisions.

LO4 Lead teams in decision making.

LO5 Select appropriate decision making tool and apply it in a given situation.

EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING COMPONENTS

1. Lab work: ‘Judgement in Crisis’, Everest V2, Harvard Business Publishing.

2. Project work: None.

3. Case study: Columbia space shuttle disaster, Bay of Pigs & Cuban Missile Crisis

4. Work integrated Learning Exercise: None.

5. Design work/Field work: None.

Contact List of Topic Title Topic # (from content structure) Reference
Hour

1-2 Introduction to the  Course detailing Lecture slides

Course  Decision notations – Descriptive, normative,
actional thought.

3-4 Qualifying a decision  Brilliant blunders T1, Lecture slides,

 Common misconception Recorded videos
 Factors impacting a decision

5-6 Heuristics  How we decide (Neurobiology) Lecture slides,

 Evolution of decision making (Heuristics) Recorded videos
 Tacit knowledge
 Gut feelings (Gerd Gigerenzer)

7-8 Deciding to decide  Risk & uncertainty Lecture slides

 Intuitive & Rational decision making
 Harvard model for decision making

9-12 Decision traps –  Anchoring T1, T2

Cognitive biases  Status-Quo
 Sunk-Cost [Columbia disaster
 Confirming evidence case study,
 Framing Mount Everest
 Estimating & forecasting tragedy case study]
 Overconfidence
 Prudence
 Recallability

13-14 Judgement in Crisis  Simulation exercise - Debriefing HBP-7077-HTM-

ENG

15-16 Decision framing  Framing a decision T2

 Addressing the right problem

17-22 Alternatives, Values,  Objectives & alternatives Lecture slides, R3

Information &  Value focused thinking
Reasoning  Smart information
 Case based reasoning

23-24 Team decision making  Wisdom of crowds R5

 Psychological safety
 Group think

25-26 Everest V2  Simulation exercise - Debriefing HBP 7000-HTM-

ENG

27-32 Ethical decision  Role of ethics in decision making Lecture slides

making  Ethical distinctions
 Ethical situations
CASE STUDIES: DETAILED PLAN

Case Case study Objective Case study Sheet

study Access URL
No

1 Discuss cognitive biases during critical decision making – Columbia

disaster.

2 Discuss importance of decision framing – Mount Everest tragedy.

EVALUATION SCHEME

Evaluation Name Type Weight Duration Day, Date,

Component (Quiz, Lab, Project, Mid (Open book, Session, Time
term exam, End Closed book,
semester exam, etc) Online, etc.)

EC - 1 Simulation lab – Online 15% 7 days After session 12

Judgement in crisis
[Individual exercise]

Simulation lab - Team Online 15% 7 days After session 24

Decision Making –
Everest V2 [Group
exercise]

EC - 2 Mid-sem Open book 30% 2 hours Friday, 24/09/2021

(FN)

10 AM - 12
Noon

EC - 3 Comprehensive Open book 40% 2 hours Friday, 12/11/2021

(FN)

10 AM - 12
Noon

Syllabus for Mid-Semester Test (Open Book): Topics in Contact Hours : 1 to 16

Syllabus for Comprehensive Exam (Open Book): All topics
Important links and information:
Elearn portal: https://elearn.bits-pilani.ac.in
Students are expected to visit the Elearn portal on a regular basis and stay up to date with the latest
announcements and deadlines.
Contact sessions: Students should attend the online lectures as per the schedule provided on the
Elearn portal.
Evaluation Guidelines:
1. EC-1 consists of either two Assignments or three Quizzes. Students will attempt them through
the course pages on the Elearn portal. Announcements will be made on the portal, in a timely
manner.
 2. For Closed Book tests: No books or reference material of any kind will be permitted.
3. For Open Book exams: Use of books and any printed / written reference material (filed or
bound) is permitted. However, loose sheets of paper will not be allowed. Use of calculators is
permitted in all exams. Laptops/Mobiles of any kind are not allowed. Exchange of any material
is not allowed.
4. If a student is unable to appear for the Regular Test/Exam due to genuine exigencies, the
student should follow the procedure to apply for the Make-Up Test/Exam which will be made
available on the Elearn portal. The Make-Up Test/Exam will be conducted only at selected exam
centres on the dates to be announced later.
It shall be the responsibility of the individual student to be regular in maintaining the self study
schedule as given in the course handout, attend the online lectures, and take all the prescribed
evaluation components such as Assignment/Quiz, Mid-Semester Test and Comprehensive Exam
according to the evaluation scheme provided in the handout.