Structural Safety 31 (2009) 275–283

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Structural Safety
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/strusafe

Seismic fragility estimates for reinforced concrete bridges subject to corrosion

Do-Eun Choe a, Paolo Gardoni a,*, David Rosowsky a, Terje Haukaas b
a
Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3136, United States
b
Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science Lane, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The paper develops novel probabilistic models for the seismic demand of reinforced concrete bridges sub-
Received 24 April 2007 ject to corrosion. The models are developed by extending currently available probabilistic models for
Received in revised form 3 July 2008 pristine bridges with a probabilistic model for time-dependent chloride-induced corrosion. In particular,
Accepted 14 October 2008
the models are developed for deformation and shear force demands. The demand models are combined
Available online 28 November 2008
with existing capacity models to obtain seismic fragility estimates of bridges during their service life. The
estimates are applicable to bridges with different combinations of chloride exposure condition, environ-
Keywords:
mental oxygen availability, water-to-cement ratios, and curing conditions. Model uncertainties in the
Reinforced concrete columns
Corrosion
demand, capacity and corrosion models are accounted for, in addition to the uncertainties in the environ-
Probabilistic demand models mental conditions, material properties, and structural geometry. As an application, the fragility of a sin-
Shear capacity gle-bent bridge typical of current California practice is presented to demonstrate the developed
Drift capacity methodology. Sensitivity and importance analyses are conducted to identify the parameters that contrib-
Sensitivity analysis ute most to the reliability of the bridge and the random variables that have the largest effect on the var-
iance of the limit state functions and thus are most important sources of uncertainty.
Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction oped deterministic models for the corrosion of reinforcing steel.

Corrosion of the reinforcement in reinforced concrete (RC)
structures is a matter of increasing concern. Corrosion is a long-
term process that effectively weakens structural elements and in-
creases their vulnerability to extreme loads. The concerns include
serviceability and safety limit-states, as well as economic costs
due to maintenance and repair. In this paper, particular attention
is devoted to bridges subject to a seismic hazard. Due to the uncer-
tainties in the corrosion process, the structural properties, and the
demands on the structures due to an impending earthquake, it has
been difficult to predict the seismic fragility of deteriorating RC
bridges. The objectives and contributions of this paper are to (1)
develop probabilistic demand models for RC bridges subject to
earthquake ground motion that include the time-dependent effects
of corrosion, (2) estimate the ensuing seismic fragility of RC
bridges, (3) identify the parameters, i.e., structural properties, envi-
ronmental factors, and model parameters, that have the highest
influence on the seismic fragility estimates, and (4) identify the
most important random variables that have the largest effect on
the variance of the limit state functions.
Several models have been developed to quantify and account
for corrosion in the design, construction, and maintenance of RC
structures. In particular, Tuutti [1] and Liu and Weyers [2] devel-
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 979 845 4340; fax: +1 979 845 6554.
E-mail address: gardoni@tamu.edu (P. Gardoni).
Thoft-Christensen et al. [3,4] and DuraCrete [5] developed probabi-
listic models for the corrosion process. Stewart and Rosowsky [6],
Vu and Stewart [7], Enright and Frangopol [8,9] developed proba-
bilistic models for the corrosion of bridge slabs, beams and girders.
Probabilistic demand models for the relevant modes of failures
(deformation and shear) are needed to develop the seismic fragility
estimates of bridges.
To develop estimates that are applicable at any time during the
bridges service life, this paper develops probabilistic models for the
deformation and shear demand of RC columns that incorporate
probabilistic models for the corrosion process. Gardoni et al. [10]
developed probabilistic demand models for shear and deformation
by employing deterministic demand models used in practice as a
starting point. Additional terms were included to explicitly de-
scribe the inherent systematic and random errors in the demand
predictions. In this paper, probabilistic demand models of deterio-
rating RC bridge systems are developed by incorporating in the
models by Gardoni et al. [10] a probabilistic model for chloride-in-
duced corrosion [5] and a time-dependent corrosion rate function
[7]. The deterioration models used to develop the demand models
incorporate uncertainties both in the structural properties and the
material deterioration processes. This is significant because of the
well-known presence of considerable uncertainty in these
constituents.
Fragility estimates are obtained by assessing the conditional
probability that the deformation or shear demand will exceed

0167-4730/$ - see front matter Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.10.001
276 D.-E. Choe et al. / Structural Safety 31 (2009) 275–283
the corresponding capacity for a given value of the spectral accel-
eration Sa, which is used here as a measure of intensity of the
ground motions. The capacity is assessed using the probabilistic
capacity models developed by Choe et al. [11], which already incor-
porates effects of corrosion. As an application, a bridge design that
is typical of current California practice is used to demonstrate the
time-variant fragility assessment methodology. The fragility esti-
mates consider different combinations of chloride exposure condi-
tion, environmental oxygen availability, water-to-cement ratios,
and curing conditions. Model uncertainties in both the capacity
and the corrosion models are considered, in addition to the uncer-
tainties in the environmental conditions, material properties, and
structural geometry. It is emphasized that the models developed
in this paper are applicable to both existing and new RC bridges.
Importantly, they may be used for the prediction of the service-life
of existing and new structures as well as general-purpose life-cycle
cost analysis for RC structures.
There are seven sections in this paper. The first section de-
scribes a corrosion initiation model used to assess the deterioration
of RC bridge columns over time. The second section discusses how
the loss of cross-sectional area is computed for a given corrosion
initiation time, Tcorr. The third section develops novel probabilistic
demand models for the seismic demand in deformation and shear
for RC bridge columns subject to corrosion. The fourth section re-
views previously developed deformation and shear capacity mod-
els. The fifth section provides a general formulation of the seismic
fragility estimations for RC bridges subject to corrosion by writing
appropriate limit state functions that use both the newly devel-
oped demand models and the currently available capacity models.
As an application, the sixth section estimates the seismic fragility
of an example bridge typical of current California practice. Finally,
in the seventh section, sensitivity and importance analyses are
conducted.
Novelties include the probabilistic modeling of the corrosion
initiation time, the development of new probabilistic demand
models, the formulation and estimation for a specific example of
the seismic fragility of RC bridges during their service life, and
the assessment of sensitivity and importance measures that pro-
vide physical insight into the effect of corrosion on RC bridge
systems.
2. Corrosion initiation model
This study uses the probabilistic model of chloride-induced cor-
rosion presented by DuraCrete [5] and the time-variant corrosion
rate function by Vu and Stewart [7] to predict the corrosion status
of RC members. The corrosion model is extended to estimate the
probability distribution of Tcorr. The model includes uncertainties
in the structural parameters, environmental conditions, and model
parameters. The original model for the corrosion initiation time
reads [4]
"   2 #1n
1
2
dc 1 C cr
T corr ¼ XI  erf 1 ; ð1Þ
4ke kt kc D0 ðt 0 Þn Cs
where dc is the reinforcement cover depth, ke is an environmental
factor, kt represents the influence of test methods to determine
the empirical diffusion coefficient D0, kc is a parameter that ac-
counts for the influence of curing, t0 is the reference period for D0,
n is the age factor, XI is a model uncertainty coefficient to account
for the idealization implied by Fick’s second law, Cs = Acs(w/b) + ecs
is the chloride concentration on the surface, w/b is the water-to-
binder ratio, Acs and ecs are model parameters, Ccr is the critical chlo-
ride concentration, and erf() is the error function. DuraCrete [5] also
provides the probability distributions for the parameters in Eq. (1)
(provided in Appendix 1 for completeness). Eq. (1) is used in this pa-
per to compute the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and the
probability density function (PDF) of the corrosion initiation time:
CDF : FT corr ðt corr Þ ¼ P½T corr 6 tcorr  ð2Þ
and
@FT corr ðtcorr Þ
PDF : f T corr ðt corr Þ ¼ : ð3Þ
@tcorr
In the next section, the deteriorated member properties (e.g.,
the corroded reinforcement area) are determined by the time-
dependent corrosion rate function developed by Vu and Stewart
[7], given a realization of the corrosion initiation time. In particu-
lar, for time instances less than Tcorr, the cross-section is assumed
to be the same as the pristine cross-section. For time instances
greater than Tcorr the reinforcement bars are assumed to have a re-
duced cross-sectional area, in accordance with Vu and Stewart [7].
The reduced reinforcement area is used in the probabilistic models
as described later in this paper.
3. Change in diameter of reinforcing steel over time
The time-dependent corrosion rate developed by Vu and Stew-
art [7] is used to compute the loss of steel cross-section area over
time. The corrosion current density at time t is expressed as
icorr ðtÞ ¼ 0:85icorr;0 ðt  T corr Þ0:29 ; t P T corr ; ð4Þ
where icorr,0 denotes the corrosion current density at the initiation
of corrosion propagation; namely
37:5ð1  w=cÞ1:64
icorr;0 ¼ lA=cm2 ; ð5Þ
dc
where w/c represents the variable water-to-cement ratio and dc is
cover depth, which is the distance from the surface of steel bar to
the surface of concrete structure. Note that according to Eq. (4),
the corrosion rate diminishes with time because corrosion products
formed around the bar impede the diffusion of iron ions.
Following Choe et al. [11], after the corrosion process initiates,
the diameter of the reinforcement is assumed to decrease over
time. In summary, the diameter of the reinforcement at a general
time t for given corrosion initiation time Tcorr can be computed as
8 9
< db 0
>
1:64
t 6 T corr ; >
=
db ðtjT corr Þ ¼ db 0  1:0508ð1w=cÞ ðt  T corr Þ0:71 T corr < t 6 T f ;
>
: dc >
;
0 t > Tf ;
ð6Þ
where db0 is the diameter of the reinforcement at time t = 0, and Tf is
the time when db(t|Tcorr), in theory, reaches zero, that is
T f ¼ T corr þ dbi fd=½1:0508ð1  w=cÞ1:64 g1=0:71 . A similar equation
can also be used to compute the diameter of the spiral reinforce-
ment dsp(t|Tcorr) as a function of the diameter of the reinforcement
at time t = 0, dsp0 .
4. Probabilistic demand models for corroding RC bridges
This section first reviews currently available probabilistic de-
mand models for pristine bridges. Then novel probabilistic models
are proposed for corroding RC bridges. The proposed models build
on the available models for pristine bridges and incorporate both
the model to estimate the diameter of the reinforcement at a gen-
eral time t for given corrosion initiation time Tcorr given in Eq. (6)
and the probability distribution of Tcorr given in Eq. (1).
4.1. Probabilistic demand models for pristine bridges
Gardoni et al. [10] developed probabilistic models for the
seismic deformation and shear demands of pristine RC bridges
 D.-E. Choe et al. / Structural Safety 31 (2009) 275–283
for a given Sa. The demand models are constructed using determin-
istic demand models already available in practice and correction
terms designed to capture the inherent systematic (bias) and ran-
dom errors. The models incorporate nonlinear static push-over
analysis followed by a nonlinear response spectrum analysis
[12,13].
For a bridge system with s single-column bents, the deforma-
tion (d) and shear (v) demand models for given Sa are written as
^ ðx0 jSa Þ þ hDd1 þ hDd2 d
Did ðx0 ; HD jSa Þ ¼ d ^Dd ðx0 jSa Þ þ rDd e ;
id id
i ¼ 1; . . . ; s;
^iv ðx0 jSa Þ þ hDv 1 þ hDv 2 d
Div ðx0 ; HD jSa Þ ¼ d ^iv ðx0 jSa Þ
þ hDv 3 d^ ðx0 jSa Þ þ rDv e ; i ¼ 1; . . . ; s:
id iv
In Eqs. (7) and (8) the logarithmic transformation is used to sta-
bilize the variance of the model, that is Did ðx0 ; HD jSa Þ ¼ ln½dðx0 ; HD Þ
and Div ðx0 ; HD jSa Þ ¼ ln½v ðx0 ; HD Þ are the natural logarithms of the
predicted drift and shear demands for the ith column of a bridge
system, d ¼ D=H is the drift demand, in which D is the displace-
ment demand and H is the clear column height, v ¼ V=ðAg ft0 Þ is
the normalized shear demand, in which V is the shear demand,
Ag is the gross cross-sectional area, and ft0 is the tensile strength
of concrete. The vector x0 represents a set of basic variables (e.g.,
material properties, member dimensions, and imposed boundary
conditions) at the time of construction. The set of unknown param-
eters HD ¼ ðHDd ; HDv ; RÞ is introduced to fit the models to observed
data, where hDd = (hDd1, hDd2) and hDv = (hDv1, hDv2, hDv3), d ^id ðx0 Þ and
^ ðx0 Þ are the natural logarithms of the deterministic demand esti-
d where, Ck is the capacity of interest, and HC is a set of unknown
iv
mates for ith column bent of the bridge system, rDdeid and rDveiv are
the model errors where, eid and eiv are a random variable with zero
mean and unit variance, rDd and rDv represent the standard devia-
tion of the model error and the covariance matrix R contains both
rDd and rDv, and the correlation coefficient between eid and eiv. Fur-
ther details and statistics for the unknown parameters are pro-
vided in Gardoni et al. [10].
4.2. Probabilistic demand model for corroding bridges
Probabilistic demand models of corroding RC bridges are
developed by integrating the previously described probabilistic
model for chloride-induced corrosion with the probabilistic de-
mand models for pristine conditions described above. The proba-
bilistic demand models for a corroding RC column at time t are
written as
Z 1
Dik ðt; x0 ; HD jSa Þ ¼ Dik ðt; x0 ; HD jSa ; T corr ÞfT corr ðt corr ÞdT corr ;
0 C d ðt; x0 ; HC jT corr Þ ¼ ln½dðt; x0 ; HC jT corr Þ and C v ðt; x0 ; HC jT corr Þ ¼ ln½v
where Dik ðt; x0 ; HD jSa ; T corr Þ denotes the kth conditional demand
(either shear or deformation) for given Sa and Tcorr, and fT corr ðtcorr Þ
is the PDF of Tcorr defined in Eq. (3). Assuming that the demands
are unaffected by corrosion for t 6 T corr , Eq. (10) can be rewritten as
Dik ðt; x0 ; HD jSa Þ ¼ Dik ðx0 ; HD jSa Þ½1  F T corr ðtÞ
Z t
þ Dik ðt; x0 ; HD jSa ; T corr ÞfT corr ðtcorr ÞdT corr
0
where Dik(x0, HD|Sa) is the demand for the pristine structure, and
Dik ðt; x0 ; HD jSa ; T corr Þ can be written using Eqs. (7) and (8) and the
simplifications of these equations provided by Gardoni et al. [13] as
Did ðt; x0 ; HD jSa ; T corr Þ ¼ 0:61 þ 3:90hDd2
^ ðt; x0 jSa ; T corr Þ
þ ð1 þ hDd2 Þd
id
þ rDd eid ; i ¼ 1; . . . ; s;
277
^ ðt; x0 jSa ; T corr Þ þ hDv 1
Div ðt; x0 ; HD jSa ; T corr Þ ¼ div
^ ðt; x0 jSa ; T corr Þ
þ hDv 2 d iv
^id ðt; x0 jSa ; T corr Þ þ rDv eiv ;
þ hDv 3 d
i ¼ 1; . . . ; s: ð12Þ
The terms in Eqs. (12) and (13) have analogous definitions to
these in Eqs. (7) and (8) except that now they are computed at time
t, given Tcorr. In particular, the pristine diameter of the reinforcing
steel d b 0 is replaced by db(t|Tcorr) compute using Eq. (6). Further-
more, the set of unknown model parameters HD is assumed not to
ð7Þ
vary with time.
5. Probabilistic capacity models for corroding RC columns
ð8Þ
To estimate the fragility of a bridge, the values from the devel-
oped demand models are compared with the values of the corre-
sponding capacities. Choe et al. [11] developed probabilistic
capacity models for corroding RC columns. These models will be
used here to develop fragility estimates. For completeness, the
models are briefly reviewed in this section.
5.1. Probabilistic capacity models for pristine columns
Gardoni et al. [14] and Choe et al. [15] developed probabilistic
models for the deformation and shear capacity of pristine RC col-
umns. The general form of the probabilistic capacity models is
C k ¼ C k ðx0 ; HC Þ; ð13Þ
model parameters introduced to fit the capacity models to observed
data.
5.2. Probabilistic demand models for corroding columns
Choe et al. [11] extended the probabilistic capacity models for
pristine RC columns to include the effects of corrosion. As de-
scribed in the previous section for the demand model, for a given
value of Tcorr, the deformation and shear capacity models are writ-
ten as [11]
C d ðt; x0 ; HC jT corr Þ ¼ ^cd ðt; x0 jT corr Þ þ cCd ðt; x0 ; HCd jT corr Þ þ rCd eCd ;
ð14Þ
C v ðt; x0 ; HC jT corr Þ ¼ ^cv ðt; x0 jT corr Þ þ cCv ðt; x0 ; HC v jT corr Þ þ rCv eC v ;
ð15Þ
where, as for the demand models, the logarithmic transformation
is used to stabilize the variance of the model, that is
ð9Þ
ðt; x0 ; HC jT corr Þ, d ¼ D=H is now the drift capacity, in which D is
the displacement capacity, v ¼ V=ðAg ft0 Þ is the normalized shear
capacity, in which V is the shear capacity, HC ¼ ðHCd ; HC v ; RÞ is a
set of unknown model parameters introduced to fit the models to
observed data, ^cd ðt; x0 jT corr Þ and ^cv ðt; x0 jT corr Þ denote the selected
deterministic capacity models, which are expressed as the natural
logarithm of the deterministic deformation and shear capacities,
ð10Þ i.e., ln½^dðt; x0 jT corr Þ and ln½v^ ðt; x0 jT corr Þ, respectively. The determinis-
tic model for deformation capacity, ^ dðt; x0 jT corr Þ, includes the elastic
component at the onset of yield as well as the inelastic component
due to the plastic flow for a single corroded RC column. The elastic
component of the drift considers (a) a flexural component based on
a linear curvature distribution along the full column height, (b) a
shear component of deformation due to shear distortion, and (c) a
slip component; that is, the deformation due to the local rotation
ð11Þ at the base caused by slipping of the longitudinal bar reinforcement.
The quantities cCd ðt; x0 ; HCd jT corr Þ and cC v ðt; x0 ; HC v jT corr Þ represent
278 D.-E. Choe et al. / Structural Safety 31 (2009) 275–283

correction terms introduced to capture the bias inherent in the L

deterministic models. Additional details on the capacity modeling
Ds
are available in Choe et al. [11].
As in Eq. (10) for the proposed demand model, a generic prob- Kabt. Kabt.
H
abilistic capacity model for a corroding RC column at time t is writ- A A`
ten as a function of time, t, as follows:
Z 1 D
C k ðt; x0 ; Hk Þ ¼ C k ðt; x0 ; Hk jT corr ÞfT corr ðt corr ÞdT corr : ð16Þ
0 A − A`
Assuming that the conditional capacity C k ðt; x0 ; Hk jT corr Þ during Ksoil
t 6 T corr is the same as the pristine capacity Ck(x0, Hk). Hence, Eq.
(17) is rewritten as
C k ðt; x0 ; HÞ ¼ C k ðx0 ; Hk Þ½1  F T corr ðtÞ
Z t
þ C k ðt; x0 ; Hk jT corr ÞfT corr ðtcorr ÞdT corr : ð17Þ Fig. 1. Example single-bent over pass.
0

bridge shown in Fig. 1 is a single-bent highway overpass with

6. Fragility estimates
geometry and material properties that are representative of cur-
rently constructed highway bridges in California. The bridge was
Following Gardoni et al. [10], the conditional probability of fail-
designed by Mackie and Stojadinovic [18] according to Caltrans’
ure for the pristine structure is written in terms of a given spectral
Bridge Design Specification and Seismic Design Criteria [19]. Table
acceleration Sa as
  1 lists the design parameters of interest for the considered bridge.
To estimate the corrosion initiation and propagation we assume
F 0 ðSa ; HÞ ¼ P [ [fg ik ðx0 ; H; Sa Þ 6 0gjSa ; ð18Þ
i k that the bridge is constructed in a tidal zone with water-to-cement
ratio of the concrete material equal to 0.5 with 1 day curing time,
where H = (HC, HD) and
and that the zone is subjected to many humid-dry cycles Table 2.
g ik ðx0 ; H; Sa Þ ¼ C ik ðx0 ; HC Þ  Dik ðx0 ; HD jSa Þ; k ¼ d; Fig. 2 shows the capacity degradation and the increase in the
v i ¼ 1; . . . ; s: ð19Þ demand (computed for 2.0 g) of the example RC bridge system as
a function of time. The figure shows the mean estimates along with
For the purpose of the present study, the fragility of deteriorat- the confidence bounds computed as ±1 standard deviation of the
ing RC bridge systems is expressed as model error, rDk. The variations in the capacity and the demand
 
Fðt; Sa ; HÞ ¼ P [ [fg ik ðt; x0 ; H; Sa Þ 6 0gjt; Sa ; ð20Þ
i k
Table 1
where Variables for the pristine single-bent bridge.
g ik ðt; x0 ; Hk ; Sa Þ ¼ C ik ðt; x0 ; HC Þ  Dik ðt; x0 ; HD jSa Þ; Description Parameter Value/
k ¼ d; v i ¼ 1; . . . ; s: ð21Þ distribution
Span length (right and left) L (mm) 18,300
Using Eqs. (11) and (18), we can obtain the following relation
Span-to-column height ratio L/H 2.4
between the limit state functions of the deteriorated and the pris- Column-to-superstructure dimension ratio D/Ds 0.75
tine bridges: Concrete nominal strength fc0 (MPa) LN(27.6, 2.76)
Reinforcement nominal yield strength fy (MPa) LN(448.2, 22.4)
g ik ðt; Sa ; x0 ; HÞ ¼ g 0ik ðx0 ; H; Sa Þ½1  F T corr 
Initial longitudinal reinforcement ratio of column ql0 2.0%
Z t
Initial transverse reinforcement ratio of column qs0 0.7%
þ ½C ik ðt; x0 ; HC jT corr Þ Soil stiffness based on NEHRP groups Ksoil B
0
(FEMA-273, 1997)
 Dik ðt; x0 ; HD jSa ; T corr ÞfT corr ðt corr ÞdT corr : ð22Þ Additional bridge dead load r N(0.1, 0.025)
(as a ratio of the dead weight)
The epistemic uncertainty in the models parameters H is incor-
porated in the fragility estimate by constructing predictive fragility
~ Sa Þ following Gardoni et al. [14] as
estimates Fðt;
Z
~ Sa Þ ¼ Table 2
Fðt; Fðt; Sa ; HÞfH ðHÞdH: ð23Þ
Variables in the diffusion model used to estimate the corrosion initiation of the
example bridge.
The predicted fragility is then the expected value of F(t, Sa, H)
over the distribution of H. Distribution Mean St. dev.
In this paper, the analyses are carried out using OpenSees [16]. dc = Cover dept of concrete column Normal 38.1 (mm) 11.4 (mm)
This is a comprehensive, open-source, object-oriented finite ele- ke = Environmental correction factor Gamma 0.924 0.155
ment software that also has reliability and response sensitivity kc = Curing time correction factor Beta 2.4 0.7
kt = Correction factor for tests Normal 0.832 0.024
capabilities [17]. In addition, OpenSees is extended in this study
D0 = Reference diffusion coefficient at Normal 473 43.2 (1012
with the implementation of the probabilistic models for corrosion t0 = 28 days (mm2/yr) m2/s)
initiation, corrosion rate, and loss of reinforcement area. n = Aging factor Beta 0.362 0.245
Ccr = Critical chloride content Normal 0.90 0.15
(mass-% of binder)
7. Application Ccs = Chloride surface concentration (linear function of Acs and ecs,% by weight of
binder)
In this section the developed methodology is applied to assess Acs = Parameter used in Ccs Normal 7.758 1.36
ecs = Parameter used in Ccs Normal 0 1.105
the seismic fragility of an example RC bridge. The selected RC
 D.-E. Choe et al. / Structural Safety 31 (2009) 275–283 279
t = 0 (year)
5

Deformation Demand and Capacity

0.14 0.7

t = 100 (year)
4.5 0.7
0.7
0.7
0.12 4 0.7
0.7
3.5 0.6
0.6
0.10 0.6
3 0.6
0.6 0.6
Sa 0.5
0.08 2.5 0.5 0.5
0.5
2 0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.06 0.4 0.4
1.5 0.3 0.3 0.4
0.3
0.3 0.3
0.04 1 0.2 0.2 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2
0.5 0.1 0.1 01
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (Year) Time t (Year)
(a) Deformation failure mode (a) Deformation (dashed), and deformation
and shear (solid) failure mode

0.7 5
0 .1 5
4.5
Shear Demand and Capacity

0.6
4
0 .1
3
0.5 3.5
t = 0 (year)

t = 100 (year)
3
0.4 Sa
2.5
0 .1 1
0.3 2
1.5 0.09
0.2 1 0.0 7
0.0 5 0.06
0.5
0.1 0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100 Time t (Year)
Time (Year) (b) Shear failure mode
(b) Shear failure mode
Fig. 4. Contour plot of the predictive fragility estimates.
Fig. 2. Capacity degradation (solid line) and demand increment for Sa = 2.0 g (dash
line) for the example RC bridge due to corrosion.
models for the selected environmental and material conditions are
assumed in accordance with the values provided by DuraCrete [5]
in the deformation failure mode are shown in the top plot. The (Appendix 1).
variations in the capacity and the demand in the shear failure ~ Sa Þ for the example single-bent bridge over
Fig. 3 shows Fðt;
mode are shown in the bottom plot. In a heuristic manner, the time for given Sa for the deformation failure mode (dashed lines),
plots in Fig. 2 illustrate that the overlapping area between the the shear failure mode (dash-dotted lines), and the combined drift
capacity and the demand distributions increase, which implies that and shear failure mode (solid lines). Interestingly, we observe that
the fragility increases over time due to corrosion. the deformation failure model dominates the fragility. This is con-
To account for uncertainties in the material properties we as- sistent with the design approach used by Caltrans [19]. As ex-
sume the following probability distributions: the compressive pected, we also observe that the fragility increases with time due
strength of concrete, fc0 , has the lognormal distribution with mean to the corrosion of the reinforcement.
27.6 MPa and 10% coefficient of variation, and the yield stress of ~ Sa Þ as a function of time t
Fig. 4 shows the contour plots of Fðt;
the longitudinal reinforcement, fy, has the lognormal distribution and spectral acceleration Sa. The contour lines connect pairs of val-
with mean 448.2 MPa and 5% coefficient of variation. To consider ues of time t and Sa that are associated with the same level of
the variability in the axial load for the single-bent overpass we as- ~ Sa Þ. The top plot in Fig. 4 shows the fragility contours for the
Fðt;
sume the additional bridge dead load has the normal distribution deformation failure mode (dashed lines) and for the combined drift
with mean equal to 10% of the dead weight and a 25% coefficient and shear failure mode (solid lines). The bottom plot in Fig. 4
of variation. The parameter values that enter into the probabilistic shows the fragility contours for the shear failure mode. It can be

0.16
0.8
S a = 5 .0
0.14 S a = 5 .0 S a = 4 .0
0.7 S a = 4.0
0.12
S a = 3.0 S a = 3.0
P(Failure|Sa )

0.6
0.10
S a = 2.0
P(Failure|Sa )

0.5
S a = 2.0
0.08
0.4 S a = 1.0
0.06
0.3
S a = 1.0 0.04
S a = 0.5
0.2
0 20 40 60 80 100
0.1 Time (Year)

0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (Year)

Fig. 3. Fragility estimates given Sa for deformation (dashed), shear (dash-dotted), and deformation and shear (solid) failure mode at intervals 1.2 g of Sa.
280 D.-E. Choe et al. / Structural Safety 31 (2009) 275–283

~ Sa Þ
seen that, due to the effects of corrosion, the same values of Fðt; measures are with respect to model parameters. They are essen-
can be obtained over time for smaller values of Sa. tially the derivative of the reliability index b or the corresponding
Finally, Fig. 5 compares the fragilities of the pristine and the probability with response to the model parameters. As such, sensi-
deteriorated bridge using the developed probabilistic demand tivity measures have different units and in general cannot be com-
models. In the figure, the pristine bridge is compared with the pared. Importance measures provide a ranking of the importance
bridge 100 years after construction. Again, changes in the fragilities of random variables based on their effect on the variance of the
as a function of time reflect the capacity degradation and demand limit state function.
increment for the different failure modes. The sensitivity of the reliability index b is expressed as rðx0c ;Hf Þ b,
which is the vector of derivatives of b with respect to the parame-
8. Sensitivity and importance measures ters ðx0c ; Hf Þ. For this formulation, the vector x0 is partitioned as
x0 ¼ ðx0c ; x0p Þ, where x0c is the vector of deterministic parameters
It is argued that the use of sophisticated prediction models in the limit-state function and x0p is the vector of random vari-
should generally be accompanied by the assessment of sensitivity ables. Also Hf is a set of distribution parameters, e.g., means, stan-
and importance measures to assess the confidence in the results dard deviations, and correlation coefficients. In first-order
and to gain physical insights. Furthermore, sensitivity and impor- reliability analysis (FORM), rðx0c ;Hf Þ b is obtained according to the
tance measures can be employed in the decision making process reliability sensitivity analysis developed by Hohenbichler and
for maintenance scheduling, as well as in a life-cycle cost analysis Rackwitz [20] and Bjerager and Krenk [21].
to determine where resources should be allocated to minimize the In this study the reliability index is a function of time: b = b(t).
fragility of the structures in a network. The following distinction is In this case, the sensitivity is also a function of time and is ex-
made between sensitivity and importance measures. Sensitivity pressed as rðx0c ;Hf Þ bðtÞ. The derivatives of the FORM reliability
approximation of the failure probability, F~1 , is then obtained by
the chain rule of the differentiation as

rðx0c ;Hf Þ F~1 ðtÞ ¼ u½bðtÞrðx0c ;Hf Þ b; ð24Þ

0.8
t = 100 years where /() is the standard normal PDF.
0.7
Although the components of the gradient rðx0c ;Hf Þ bðtÞ (or
0.6
rðx0c ;Hf Þ F~1 ðtÞ) have different units and thus cannot be employed
t = 0 year
P(Failure|Sa)

0.5 for ranking of the parameters, it is valuable to plot the sensitivity

0.4 of the fragility to changes in various parameters over time. Fig. 6
t = 100 years shows the sensitivity over time, reflecting the effects of corrosion.
0.3
t = 0 year In the first years, the sensitivity with respect to the corrosion
0.2 parameters (the parameters related to the corrosion initiation
0.1 model) is shown to increase rapidly, since these parameters regu-
0.0 late the beginning of the corrosion propagation phase. Once the
0 1 2 3 4 5 corrosion phase has begun, their sensitivities diminish. Moreover,
Sa
the corrosion initiation is observed to have a more pronounced ef-
Fig. 5. Fragility estimates for the example bridge for deformation (dashed), shear fect on the sensitivity measures for the deformation failure mode
(dash-dotted), and deformation and shear (solid) failure modes. than for the shear failure mode.

0.020
E(XI)
0.015 0.04 E(n)
E(n)
0.010 0.02 E(XI)
∇ ( x0 c ,Θ f )β(t ) 0.005 0.00
E(Ccr)
∇ ( x0 c ,Θ f )β(t )
0.000 -0.02
E(kC)
-0.005 dC -0.04
E(kt)
-0.010 -0.06 E(kt)
0 10 20 30
Time (year) -0.08

0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (year)
(a) Deformation failure mode

0.010 0.08
E(n) 0.07
E(Ccr)
0.06 E(n)
0.005
∇ ( x0 c ,Θ f )β(t ) E(XI ) 0.05

E(D0)
∇ ( x0 c ,Θ f )β(t ) 0.04
0.000 0.03
E(kc) 0.02
E(kt) E(Ccr)
0.01
-0.005
0 10 20 30 0.00
Time (year) E(kt)
-0.01
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (year)
(b) Shear failure mode

Fig. 6. Sensitivity measures of the means of diffusion variables for deformation (top) and shear (bottom) failure modes for Sa = 2.0 g.
 D.-E. Choe et al. / Structural Safety 31 (2009) 275–283 281

Fig. 7 illustrates the sensitivity with respect to the parameters the deformation and shear failure modes. For the deformation fail-
related to the structural model. The parameters include the mean ure mode, the sensitivity to changes in dsp0 increases over time and
of several random variables, as well as several deterministic struc- the sensitivity to changes in db0 is approximately constant with a
tural parameters. Different variations over-time are observed for soft peak at the transition from the diffusion phase to the corrosion
phase. In contrast, for the shear failure mode, the reliability index
becomes less and less sensitive to changes in db0 as the corrosion
develops. The trends observed in Fig. 7 are consistent with the
0.7
form of the capacity model used in this study. Specifically, the ef-
0.6 fect of the longitudinal reinforcement on the shear capacity is in-
dsp0 cluded as a correction term in the capacity models developed by
0.5

0.4
Gardoni et al. [14]. In that study, the significance of this term
was assessed using 106 experimental observations through a
∇( x0 c ,Θ f )β(t ) 0.3
Bayesian framework. In the present study, the effect of the longitu-
0.2
db0 dinal reinforcement on the capacity is confirmed by its sensitivity
0.1 for the deteriorated structure. Furthermore, a negative value of the
E(fy) sensitivity with respect to the spacing of the transverse reinforce-
0.0
E(f 'c) ment, S, is observed. As expected, this implies that the fragility de-
-0.1 S
0 20 40 60 80 100
creases when S increases.
Time (year) Each random variable has a different contribution to the vari-
(a) Deformation failure mode ability of the limit state function. Important random variables have
a larger effect on the variability of the limit state function than less
0.7 important ones. Following Der Kiureghian and Ke [22] and Hau-
0.6
kaas and Der Kiureghian [23], a measure of importance c can be
db0 defined as
dsp0
0.5
aT Ju ;z SD0
0.4 cT ¼ ; ð25Þ
kaT Ju ;z SD0 k
∇( x0 c ,Θ f )β(t ) 0.3

0.2
where z is the vector of the random variables, z = (xp, H) and Ju*,z* is
the Jacobian through which the probability is transformed from the
0.1
E(f 'c) original space z into the standard normal space u, with respect to
0.0 the coordinates of the most likely failure realization, z* , SD0 is the
E(fy)
-0.1
S standard deviation matrix of the equivalent normal variables z0
0 20 40 60 80 100 which are defined by the linearized inverse transformation
Time (year) z0 = z* + Jz*,u*(u  u*) at the most likely failure realization. The
(b) Shear failure mode
matrix SD0 consists of the elements that are the square root of the
Fig. 7. Sensitivity measures of the means of structural variables for deformation corresponding diagonal elements of the covariance matrix R0 ¼
(top) and shear (bottom) failure mode for Sa = 2.0 g. Jz ;u JTz ;u of the variables z0 .

0.0010
0.03
dC
0.0005 kc εcs

ke Acs 0.02
kt
γ 0.0000
D0
γ 0.01
-0.0005 Ccr
kc
XI 0.00
n
-0.0010 XI
0 10 20 30
Time (year) -0.01
n

0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (year)
(a) Deformation failure mode

0.0010 0.025
εcs Acs
kc 0.020
0.0005 ke
0.015
D0 dC
0.010
γ 0.0000 kt
0.005
XI kc
--0.0005
γ 0.000
Ccr
-0.005
n
-0.0010 -0.010
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
-0.015 n
Time (year)
-0.020
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (year)
(b) Shear failure mode

Fig. 8. Importance measures for the diffusion variables for deformation (top) and shear (bottom) failure modes for Sa = 2.0 g.
282 D.-E. Choe et al. / Structural Safety 31 (2009) 275–283

0.9
0.05 0.8 εDδ
dC 0.7
0.6
0.00 f 'c 0.5
0.4
fy 0.3
γ -0.05 θCδ7 γ 0.2 θDδ1
θDδ2 0.1 dC
0.0
-0.10 θCδ1 -0.1
-0.2 θCδ11
θCδ11
-0.15 -0.3
0 10 20 30 -0.4 εCδ
Time (year) -0.5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (year)
(a) Deformation failure mode

1.0
0.05 σDv
f 'c
0.8 εDv
dC
0.00 σ
Cv
0.6
γ -0.05
θCv2
-0.10 θCv4
γ 0.4
θDv1
0.2
θDv2
-0.15
0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (year) -0.2 εCv
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time (year)
(b) Shear failure mode

Fig. 9. Importance measures of the structural variables for deformation (top) and shear (bottom) failure modes for Sa = 2.0 g.

Fig. 8 shows components of the importance vector c for the ran- and corrosion models are accounted for, in addition to the uncer-
dom variables of the diffusion model as a function of time. It is ob- tainties in the environmental conditions, material properties, and
served that the parameters related to the deformation failure mode structural geometry. The models are applicable to existing and
are highly significant for the corrosion initiation process, while new columns that are subject to current or future deterioration.
those for the shear failure mode are less important. It is concluded As an application, the presented models and methodology are
that for the bridge under consideration the shear failure mode is applied to an example bridge structure. Fragility estimates are ob-
less affected by corrosion compared with the deformation failure tained at different time during the service life of the bridges along
mode. Fig. 9 presents the values of the importance vector associ- with sensitivity and importance measures. It is observed that the
ated to the random variables that represent the structural model. presence of corrosion alters the sensitivity and importance mea-
For the deformation failure mode the uncertainties in eDd and eCd sures over time. The developed fragility estimates and the sensitiv-
are seen to be the most important. This observation is in agree- ity and importance measures can be employed in service-life and
ment with the results in Choe et al. [15,11]. It is furthermore ob- life-cycle cost analyses.
served that the uncertainties in fc0 and fy are more important for
the corrosion process than those in H. The bottom plot in Fig. 9 Appendix 1
is associated with the shear failure mode, in which it is observed
that eDv and eCv represent the most important sources of uncer- Do: Reference diffusion coefficient at t0 = 28 days
tainty. It is also observed that the importance of hDv3, which repre-
sents the effect of deformation in the shear failure mode, increases Condition Distribution Mean[mm2/yr] St. dev.[10-12 m2/s]
as the corrosion propagates. This implies that the two failure w/c=0.4 Normal 220.9 25.4
modes are correlated and that this relationship is affected by the w/c=0.45 Normal 315.6 32.5
corrosion process. w/c=0.5 Normal 473 43.2

9. Conclusions n: Aging factor

Condition Distribution Mean St. dev. A B
This paper develops probabilistic models for seismic demand in
All Beta 0.362 0.245 0 0.98
the deformation and shear of corroding RC bridge systems. It is
shown that the demands on the bridge increase as the corrosion
process unfolds. The demand models are applicable to bridges with
ke: Environmental correction factor
different combinations of chloride exposure condition, environ-
mental oxygen availability, water-to-cement ratios, and curing Condition Distribution Mean St. dev.
conditions.
Submerged Gamma 0.325 0.223
The demand models are used to develop predictive seismic fra-
Tidal Gamma 0.924 0.155
gility estimates for corroding RC bridges. The fragility estimates ac-
Splash Gamma 0.265 0.045
count for both the capacity degradation and the demand increase
Atmospheric Gamma 0.676 0.114
due to corrosion. Model uncertainties in the demand, capacity
 D.-E. Choe et al. / Structural Safety 31 (2009) 275–283 283

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