Q1.( i) Three dump trucks are being planned to work as a team to excavate a particular site.

Each dump truck can

excavate 150m3 per day and is likely to be broken down to 1 day in 10. Calculate the probability of the fleet
achieving a range of daily outputs, plot them on histogram, and calculate the average daily output of the
fleet.

ii) The fleet of trucks would be working with an excavator that can achieve the following daily outputs:

Table Q.1 Daily output of Excavator

Output (m3) Probability

0 0.05
100 0.1
200 0.2
300 0.35
400 0.2
500 0.1

Illustrate the information in Table Q.1 on a histogram. Calculate the average daily output of the excavator.

Calculate the probabilities of achieving the range of outputs as in Table Q.1 for the fleet of dump trucks
working together with the excavator.

Determine the average daily outputs of trucks and excavator working as a team.
 Plant 1 Dump Truck

n = 3 0
2 1
1 2
0 3

p = 0.9

q = 0.1

Probability Output (m3)

factorials 6 1 3 working 0.729 450 328.05
2 1 2 working 0.243 300 72.9
1 2 1 working 0.027 150 4.05
1 6 0 working 0.001 0 0
Average
check 1 Output 405
(m3)

Dump Truck

100%
90%
80%
70%
Probability

60%
0.729 0.243 0.027 0.001
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
450 300 150 0
Output / day (m3)
 Plant 2 Excavator

Probability Output (m3)

0.05 0 0
0.1 100 10
0.2 200 40
0.35 300 105
0.2 400 80
0.1 500 50

Average
check 1 Output 285
(m3)

Excavator
0.35

0.3

0.25
Probability

0.2 0.35

0.15
0.2 0.2
0.1
0.1 0.1
0.05 0.05

0
0 100 200 300 400 500
Output / day (m3)

Excavator

Dump Truck Excavator

Probability Output Probability Output
0.729 450 0.05 0
0.243 300 0.1 100
0.027 150 0.2 200
0.001 0 0.35 300
0.2 400
0.1 500
 Output Probabilit Output
Limited by Dump Truck Limited by Excavator Equally Limiting
(m3) y (m3)

0 0.001 0.95 0.00 0.05 0.999 0.05 0.05 0

100 0.1 0.999 0.10 0.10 9.99
150 0.027 0.85 0.02 0.02 3.4425
200 0.2 0.972 0.19 0.19 38.88
300 0.243 0.3 0.07 0.35 0.729 0.26 0.243 0.35 0.08505 0.41 123.93
400 0.2 0.729 0.15 0.15 58.32
450 0.729 0.1 0.07 0.07 32.805
500 0.1 0 0.00 0.00 0
check 1.00
Average
Output 267.37
(m3)

Dump Truck / Excavator Team

Dump Truck / Excavator Team

0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
Probability

0.25
0.41
0.20
0.15
0.19
0.10 0.15
0.10
0.05 0.05 0.07
0.02
0.00
0 100 150 200 300 400 450
Output / day (m3)

Dump Truck / Excavator Team

(iii) Discuss what action you would recommend if the required daily output of the trucks and excavator
working together was 25% higher than the calculated daily average output.

From the above calculations it can be seen that the average output is:
4 Dump Trucks = 405 m3
1 Excavator = 285 m3
The average output of the team is shown as = 267.37 m3
For a 25% increase, the output required is = 334.21 m3

Therefore the limiting machine will be the excavator with an average output of 285 m3,
So it can be assumed that by increasing the number of excavators to 2, an average output of 570 m3 can be
achieved.
It will be possible to increase the output by adding another excavator.