Business Outlook 2022

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NORMALCY Yongky Susilo

The Scars is real

Nearly 4 million people across the

world have died from Covid-19.

More 100 million people have lost

Yongky Susilo jobs during pandemic
 Revenge

Life is starting to snap back into pre-pandemic normalcy

in countries.

Malls are reopening to capacity crowds, indoor restaurants are

bustling, people are going on maskless dates and air travel has
nearly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Yongky Susilo
 Fear and trepidation around returning to normal in the Covid-19 era is called

Post-Pandemic
Anxiety

Taylor says that there will be some

people who “will never return to
normal” – including those lost a loved
one, or even lost a job, marriage or
home. However, Taylor believes that
this group will be the

minority. Yongky Susilo

Business as Unusual 2022
 The Speaker
Retail and Consumer Strategist
KADIN International Trading House
Former Executive Director The Nielsen Company

Kresna - Technology Investment

Associate to Capillary Tech – Omni Channel Retail Solution
Advisor Paper.ID – Digital Invoice

Senior Associate, Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia

Member of Satgas Pokja 3 Ekonomi
Yongky Susilo Member APINDO, FORKOM Kemendag
Board expert of HIPPINDO, Advisor AP3MI
Faculty member of Rumah Perubahan

Was Professor MM-UI, Senior Academic Advisor Bunda Mulia University

Book author of RETAIL RULES .
Agenda
Global hope for Returning to Normal
Covid19 from Pandemic to Endemic
Economy grow BACK
Retail market is UP
Consumer behavior Return Normal
What has CHANGED ?
What are the OPPORTUNITIES 2022 ?
Global hope for returning to normal
The Changing World

Global hope
for returning
to normal
 Pfizer: will return to normal
The Changing World

Global hope
for returning
to normal
The Changing World Global average return to normal

Global hope
for returning
to normal
Covid19 from Pandemic to Endemic
 Covid19 vs previous pandemics:
we can handle it …
THE BLACK DEATH (1346-1353)
Death Toll: 75 – 200 million
ASIAN FLU (1956-1958) Cause: Bubonic Plague
Death Toll: 2 million
Cause: Influenza
ANTONINE PLAGUE (165
AD)
HIV/AIDS PANDEMIC Death Toll: 5 million
(AT ITS PEAK, 2005- Cause: Unknown
2012)
Death Toll: 36 million FLU PANDEMIC (1918)
Cause: HIV/AIDS Death Toll: 20 -50 million
Cause: Influenza

FLU PANDEMIC (1968) PLAGUE OF JUSTINIAN (541-542)

Covid19 Death Toll: 1 million Death Toll: 25 million
from Cause: Influenza Cause: Bubonic Plague
Pandemic
to Endemic Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Diminishing covid19 cases

Covid19
from
Pandemic
to Endemic Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Molnupiravir best bet and
Indonesia produce it

Covid19
from
Pandemic
Yongky Susilo
to Endemic Retail and Consumer Strategist
 2022 continue vaccination + Booster

Covid19
from
Pandemic
to Endemic Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 New variant : OMICRON
The Changing World
1. *Moderna & Novavax*: Omicron booster shots should be available in early-2022.
2. *Pfizer*: adapt vaccine within 6wks & start shipping within 100 days.
3. *AZ*: examining Omicron on its antibody cocktail.
4. *Sinovac*: developing a new shot.

Covid19
from
Pandemic
to Endemic
Economy will grow back
 Holiday curse is
Lockdown during pandemic
enemy of economy

Economy
will grow
back
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Delta variant smash growth

Economy
will grow
back
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Smack retail sales

Economy
will grow
back
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Smack hotel too…

Economy
will grow
back
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 FnB sales is hampered

Economy
will grow
back
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 However
Controlled entering
pandemic Q4higher
results in 2021
spending isindex
consumption up trends

Economy
will grow
back
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 2022 Indonesia projection is 5.2%

Economy
will grow
back
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Long trend….is return level

Economy
will grow
back
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Our Market CCTV
Traffic jams
Mall no parking spot
Restaurants- Café full
Recreation area full
Hotel full
Grocery crowded
Office and school start face to face
Wedding party
Consumer Sports group
behavior
return to Ecommerce FMCG dropped
normal
 Consumption is increasing into
beyond 5%

Economy
Economy
will grow
will grow
back
back Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
Retail market is UP
 Retail is back to normal

Global hope
for returning
to normal Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
Q3 was BURN, Q4 must use it to turn around
-0.7% 7.07% 3.51% Est 5.6% FMCG MT growth
2021

Fall earlier

4% - 7%
Watch for
3rd wave

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Rainy/flood Ramadhan Post festive Year end festive
Sickness Festive (THR) School fee
Planning budget

Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 2022 year of COOKIN’
Next : Tidak lock down, Bonus lebaran on time

4.6% 7% 4.1% 4.9% FMCG MT growth

2022

Explode or
Not
8% - 12%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Ramadhan Post festive G20 Bali
Festive (THR) School fee World Cup Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Non discretionary spending
increase

Consumer
behavior
return to
normal Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
Consumer Behavior return to Normal
 Go Back to Normal
Pre Covid During Covid Post Covid

Consumer Behavior
Experiential Shopping Buying
Social Limited Virtual Social
Offline Online Copy Paste
Travel Stay at Home
Indulge Focus on basic
Active sports WFH - EFH
Eating Out
 Consumer behavior return to normal
(change during pandemic is not sticky)

Consumer
behavior
return to
normal
 Travel is coming back; work from home
It was temporary action
is diminishing

Consumer
behavior
return to
normal
 Consumer go back to mall,
supermarket and stores

Consumer
behavior
return to
normal Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 All type of food places gain back

Consumer
behavior
return to
normal Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Online FMCG is tiny and driven by B2B

Sweden 2.5%
Norway 1% Russia 1%
Denmark 2% Belgium 1%
U.K. 6.3% Germany 1.4%
France 6.1% Switzerland 1.8%
Spain 1% Italy 1.6%
Portugal <1%
Japan 5%
U.S. 8% Turkey 2%
China 18%
South Korea 20%
Mexico 2% U.A.E. 0.7%
India <1% Taiwan 6%

Colombia <1% Malaysia 2%

Singapore 7%
Brazil 1%
Indonesia 1%
Australia 3.1%
South Africa <1%

Argentina <1%
Consumer
behavior New Zealand 2.9%

return to Source: 2017 estimates based on Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Nielsen Consumer Panel Services, Nielsen E-Commerce Measurement, Leading Industry
normal Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Share of ecommerce in USA down go back
The Changing World to normal after covid19

Consumer
behavior
return to
normal
 Share of ecommerce in China is down after
The Changing World
covid19, offline recovery is much faster
Online naik hanya waktu LOCKDOWN

Consumer
behavior
return to
normal
 China vs Indonesia
From October 2017 to September 2018,

Alibaba’s operating profit was 18.7 percent

Tencent was 27 percent.
By contrast, Sun Art Retail Group—China’s most successful brick-and-mortar retailer—
reported a margin of only 3.9 percent during the same period.
Yonghui Superstores achieved just 1.9 percent.

Given their different profit models and the uncertainties surrounding profit improvement
for brick-and-mortar retailers that are still in the early stages of transformation, there
seems little incentive for the Internet giants to increase their investment in traditional
retail operations, or even to participate at an operational level. That’s reflected in the fact
Consumer that Alibaba and Tencent have between 40,000 and 50,000 staff members, while Sun Art
behavior employs up to 140,000 people (Yonghui Superstores has 70,000 staff members).
return to
normal Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
What has CHANGED ?
 Reality:
85.83% ecommerce drop during pandemic

What has
CHANGED ?
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Reality:
45% ecommerce drop min 50% of sales

What has
CHANGED ?
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Offline (96% share) and Online(4% share)
devastated !
Plummet

Offline
FMCG

Plummet

Online
What has
CHANGED ?
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Similarly, monthly cargo loading for international
flights at CGK was negative growth and hit bottom
The Changing World in April May 2020

Chairman Asosiasi Logistik Indonesia (ALI)

Zaldi Ilham Masita explained product
categories delivered have shifted significantly
from fashion and electronics as in pre covid19
to primary needs such as food
Change to
CHANCE
Source: Balitbanghub
 Consumer focus on BAPOK to SURVIVE, drop
everything else

What has
CHANGED ?
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Seamless shopping transformation
needed in retail business

Smart Search Engine Livestreaming Go to store, check in, Check the product Consult and check stock
Find, get offering !

Track delivery Tell friends Pay on site Instant offering Staff scan barcode
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Business model : Fast eat slow

Today Economy Tomorrow Economy

Big eat small Fast eat slow Smart eat dumb Ecosystem vs solo

What has
CHANGED ?
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Nike : 18 months vs 4 months

What has
CHANGED ?
Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
 Yudo disruption

The objective is to cleanly throw, to pin, or to master the opponent

Yongky Susilo
Retail and Consumer Strategist
What are the OPPORTUNITIES ?
 SPENDING JOURNEY

Increase in Small amount to Purchase BIG ticket :

Middle class LARGE number
Lifestyle
available Electronic, Furniture,
Two income LOW income
rise consumer credit Auto

Increased demand Retirement Increase demand Choose where to

Greater emphasize
for financial services Healthcare for travel and shop or entertained.
for entertainment
Child education leisure service and leisure FartherRetail
home Yongky Susilo
and ConsumerYongky Susilo
Strategist
2.Travel
Setelah Global Financial Crisis 2009, di tahun
2010 konsumen Indonesia berencana
menggunakan spare cash untuk vacations.
Vacation akhir 2020 atau awal 2021 ? Yesssss

GO BACK TO NORMAL Yongky Susilo INDONESIA, April 2020

 Dominasi belanja kebutuhan pokok masih di toko

3.Shop tradisional dan pasar basah. Modern trade masih

stabil. Ecommerce masih insignifikan. Trade
behavior ini tidak akan banyak berubah lima tahun
ke depan
Frequency belanja setiap bulan

Trade channel share 55 categories FMCG + cigarettes

70% 29% <1%

April 25 2020, setelah gajian dan awal bulan puasa General Trade Modern Trade E Commerce

GO BACK TO NORMAL Yongky Susilo INDONESIA, April 2020

6.Eat Out
Kelas menengah dan atas mengalokasikan 21%
spending ke leisure termasuk makan luar dan terus
bertumbuh kuat. Dine out adalah bagian dari
behavior yang kuat tidak akan berubah, mencari
experience (suasana), makanan cita rasa lebih fresh
dan gaya hidup modern
Kebiasaan ini tidak akan berubah; sektor FnB akan
terus berkembang setelah Covid19

GO BACK TO NORMAL Yongky Susilo INDONESIA, April 2020

 Megatrend kelas menengah Indonesia

7.Indulgence masih akan berlanjut yaitu pertumbuhan

tinggi untuk produk2 yang memberikan
convenience, healthy, looking good dan
feeling good.

Kelas menengah mencari ‘Pelarian diri

sementara’, melalui produk indulgence.

Dalgona Cheese Blueberry

Coffee Ice Cream Chocolate
Source: Kopi Kenangan

GO BACK TO NORMAL Yongky Susilo INDONESIA, April 2020

 Megatrend kelas menengah Indonesia juga

8. Healthy mengkonsumsi produk2 yang memberikan

kesehatan (healthy) dikemas dengan kemudahan
(ready to consume).

Produk2 yang mengandung zat2 yang memberikan

peningkatan kesehatan telah bertumbuh dua digit
sejak kelas menengah berkembang

New Year’s Resolution

Loose weight
Living fit
Drink water

GO BACK TO NORMAL Yongky Susilo INDONESIA, April 2020

 Setelah fenomena boom ‘LOW Middle’
9. Premiumization class, maka akan muncul MID Middle class
Indonesia dengan daya beli lebih tinggi dan
mencari produk lebih premium

2010 2019

56.5% 65%

Mid
Middleclass

GO BACK TO NORMAL Yongky Susilo INDONESIA, April 2020

 Manusia adalah mahluk sosial dan
pembelajar yang membutuhkan motivasi,
11. Blended Learning kegembiraan, dan interaksi; berada dalam
dunia yang serba cepat, pembelajaran
digital dapat membantu akselerasi.

Face-to-face training provides benefits like:

• Personal experience:
Not all skills can be learned online. There are certain
skills that you need to learn by doing it yourself with
the help of the instructor. A teacher-student
interaction can be more fulfilling face-to-face.
• Networking:
In spite of all the video conferencing options
available, you need to meet your peers and
instructors in person if you want a richer
relationship.
• A large body of material:
When a large body of material needs to be presented, then
face-to-face sessions are the most effective.
• Greater Engagement:
it’s much easier to keep an attendee’s attention when
they’re there in the room with the trainer plus it’s much
easier for the trainer to see if someone is drifting off or
falling behind.

GO BACK TO NORMAL Yongky Susilo INDONESIA, April 2020

 Your STORE will not be replaced by tech (ecommerce)
The Changing World

Your STORE will be replaced by store that utilize tech