Shares = Micro-part of Business

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine,

but in the long run it is a weighing machine”

-Benjamin Graham
Common Mistakes to Avoid In Investing

#1 Contradiction
I want a perfect body
But I want McDonalds!
 #2 Wishful Thinking
I wish I were a lion.
But, why don’t’ the others respect me?
 #3 Whispering Stocks
Let me tell you a very hot stock!
4 KEY TAKEAWAYS
•Beli Saham Bagus
•Beli di Harga Wajar
•Cari Info Nomero Uno
•Manajemen Portofolio
Stocks Classification
 Pertumbuhan
• 5-10%/tahun or below

Karakteristik
• Dividend besar

Laba
• Tumbuh lambat

Slow Growers Harga

• Naik lambat
 Expectation of Slow Growers

Stabilitas Perusahaan

Kenaikan Harga Rendah

Dividend Tinggi
Slow Growers
 Expectation of Slow Growers

Stabilitas Perusahaan
Ekspektasi Logis:
Kenaikan Harga Rendah

10%/tahun
Dividend Tinggi
Slow Growers
 Pertumbuhan
• 10-20%/tahun

Karakteristik
• Dividend Sedang

Laba
• Tumbuh Moderat

Stalwarts Harga
• Naik Moderat
 Expectation of Stalwarts

Stabilitas Perusahaan

Kenaikan Harga Moderat

Dividend Moderat
Stalwarts
 Expectation of Stalwarts

Stabilitas Perusahaan
Ekspektasi Logis:
Kenaikan Harga Moderat

15-25%/tahun
Dividend Moderat
Stalwarts
 Pertumbuhan
• >20%/tahun

Karakteristik
• Dividend kecil

Laba
• Naik signifikan

Fast Growers Harga

• Naik signifikan
 Expectation of Fast Growers

Sakit ketika jatuh

Kenaikan Harga Tinggi

Dividend Rendah
Fast Growers
 Expectation of Fast Growers

Sakit ketika jatuh

Ekspektasi Optimis:
Kenaikan Harga Tinggi
Multi-bagger
(berkali
Dividend lipat)
Rendah
Fast Growers
 Tipe Bisnis
• Naik-turun-naik-turun

Karakteristik
• Berbasis Komoditas

Laba
• Naik-turun-naik-turun

Cyclicals Harga
• Naik-turun-naik-turun
 Expectation of Cyclicals

Rich or Die

Kenaikan Harga Tinggi

Cyclicals Dividend Fluktuatif

 Expectation of Cyclicals

Rich or Die
Ekspektasi Optimis:

Kenaikan Harga Tinggi

Multi-bagger
Cyclicals
(berkali lipat)
Dividend Fluktuatif
 Tipe Bisnis
• Depresi

Karakteristik
• Tidak berkembang dan
keuangan seret

Laba
Turnarounds • Minim bahkan negatif

Potential Harga
• Sangat rendah
 Expectation of Turnaround Pot.

Rich or Die

Kenaikan Harga Tinggi

Turnarounds
Potential
 Expectation of Turnaround Pot.

Ekspektasi
Rich or Die Logis:

Nothing to
Kenaikan Harga Tinggi
Turnarounds expect
Potential
 Tipe Bisnis
• Netral

Karakteristik
• Banyak mutiara
terpendam

Laba
• Biasa aja

Asset Play Harga

• Dilupakan
 Expectation of Asset Play

Diam-diam jadi hero

Kenaikan Harga Tinggi

Asset Play Dividend normal

 Expectation of Asset Play

Diam-diam jadi hero

Ekspektasi Optimis:
Kenaikan Harga Tinggi
Multi-bagger
Asset Play (berkali lipat)
Dividend normal
Balance Sheet Check-Up
Debt to Equity Ratio
- Cek dengan kelompok saham
- Maksimum 3 (NO MORE!)
Operation cashflow
• Cek dengan kelompok saham
• Negatif hanya boleh ketika ekspansi dan belum saturated
Cash vs Long-term debt
• Cek dengan kelompok saham
• Memastikan tidak bisa bangkrut + BONUS ASSET PLAY
Operational Aspects

• Cash vs Operational Expense

Minimum 6 months OPEX

• Fixed Assets to Total Assets

< 50%

• Inventory & A/R Turnover

3 Months & inline with sales growth
When to BUY and REALLY BUY
Magic Formula : P/E Ratio (PER)
Deposito Saham

VS
Magic Formula : P/E Ratio (PER)
Deposito Saham

VS
 Fair Value
• PER 5-10x

Margin of Safety
• Long Term : 10%
• Medium Term : 30%
Selling Point
• Quantitative approach
• Long Term : PER > 16x
• Med Term : PER > 10x

• Qualitative approach
Slow Growers • Market share turun selama 2
tahun terakhir
• Tidak ada produk baru
• Akuisisi non-sejenis
• Neraca yang lemah
• Dividen yield rendah
 Fair Value
• PER 11-16x

Margin of Safety
• Long Term : 30%
• Medium Term : 40%

Selling Point
• Quantitative approach
• Long Term : PER > 22x
• Med Term : PER > 16x

• Qualitative approach
• 2 tahun ini, produk baru kurang
sukses

Stalwarts • PER 16x sementara pesaing

hanya 11x
• Tidak ada insider buying
• Ada masalah di divisi inti
• Peningkatan profitabilitas hanya
dari efisiensi
 Fair Value
• PER 17-22x

Margin of Safety
• Long Term : 30-50%
• Medium Term : 50%
Selling Point
• Quantitative approach
• Long Term : PER > 30x
• Med Term : PER > 22x

• Qualitative approach
Fast Growers • Ekspansi sudah maksimal
• SSSG turun >3%
• Pembukaan store baru yang
mengecewakan
• Manajemen kunci bergabung
dengan perusahaan lain
 Buying Point
• Banyak perusahaan rugi
• PER tuinggi
• Inventory rendah

Selling Point
• Qualitative approach
• Biaya sudah mulai naik
Cyclicals • Inventory meningkat jauh
lebih tinggi dibanding
omzet
• Future price yang lebih
rendah
• Kompetitor baru masuk
 Buying Point
• MWC – Debt >
Market Cap

Selling Point
• Telah mengalami
pertumbuhan baik
• Pembayaran utang
Turnarounds mulai gencar
Potential • Inventory bertumbuh
sesuai pertumbuhan
omzet
 Buying Point
• MC/RV < 0,7

Selling Point
• Quantitative approach
• MC/RV > 1

• Qualitative approach
• Perusahaan menerbitkan
Asset Play saham baru dengan harga
rendah
• Divisi underperformance
penjualanannya
• Institutional ownership
semakin tinggi
Informasi Nomero Uno
From IDX
From Corporate Secretary
• EMTK
• “Bukalapak’s last fund raise was made at valuation of
2,6bn usd. We own 30+%. We’ve only invested about
70m. Good investment or not?”
• UNTR
• “The total discount that will be given by Pama this year
is significantly lower compared to last year. The total
discount given this year estimated at around USD 35
million and has been given in the first semester so no
additional discount in the second semester”
• PTBA
• “PLTU Sumsel 8 project aims to increase the economic
value of low CV coal which is less profitable if sold
directly to the market. The IRR is quite high but we can’t
inform you in detail.”
Portfolio Management
Money Management
 Efficient Portfolio
Diversifikasi Jenis Asset

Tidak Lebih Dari 50% di 1 Sektor

Jangan Melampaui Kemampuan

Never Fully Invest at ALL Time