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Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan 'province': Will it make the Kashmir

dispute irrelevant?
Pakistani PM Khan has promised to grant provisional provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan, which is part of the larger Kashmir region.
Activists say the move is akin to India's decision to integrate its part of Kashmir.

Earlier this month, Pakistani authorities announced their decision to grant Gilgit-Baltistan — an autonomous region that Islamabad administers in the
Pakistan's north — the status of a full province.

In 2009, Islamabad granted autonomy and the provision of a legislative assembly to the region. The Gilgit-Baltistan legislative assembly held elections
in 2015, with new polls scheduled for November 15.

Gilgit-Baltistan was part of the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir in 1947. In 1948, a year after India and Pakistan gained independence from
Britain's colonial rule, it acceded to Pakistan, hoping it would be given constitutional status.

But the Pakistani government, while accepting the region as part of Pakistan, also regarded it as part of the disputed Kashmir region.

Read more: Kashmir: The world's most dangerous conflict

While Islamabad lays claim to the entire Kashmir region, including the India-administered region, New Delhi considers Pakistan-controlled Kashmir
(Azad Kashmir) as well as Gilgit-Baltistan Indian territory.

Pakistan's intention to declare Gilgit-Baltistan its fifth province has received mixed reactions from both sides of the Kashmir border. Kashmiri
nationalists, who seek an independent state, denounced the move, fearing it would make their demand for a united Jammu and Kashmir irrelevant.

Islamabad's earlier attempts to grant Gilgit-Baltistan provincial status have been met with fierce resistance and opposition from various Kashmiri
groups.

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A move toward permanent borders?

Tauqeer Gilani, president of the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) in Pakistan, believes that Islamabad's actions in Gilgit-Baltistan are not very
different from India's decision last year to strip its part of Kashmir of its semi-autonomous status, which practically means that Kashmir is now directly
under New Delhi's control.

"Gilgit-Baltistan province would be a step toward the division of Kashmir. It is also against international laws and Pakistan's own stance about the
region's disputed status," Gilani told DW.

Khalid Shah, an associate fellow at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation (ORF), is of the view that provincial status for Gilgit-Baltistan
would weaken Pakistan's position on the Kashmir conflict.

"It is similar to what India did on August 5, 2019 when it integrated its part of Kashmir," he told DW.

Read more: Omar Abdullah vows to restore Kashmir's special status

Asma Khan Lone, author of the upcoming book, The Great Gilgit Game, said that the decision has been packaged in a way as to be seen falling within
the jurisdiction of the UN resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir.

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"During his announcement in Gilgit city, Khan alluded to the proposal being within the ambit of the UNTake a look atHe
resolutions. thewas
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UN resolution of 13 August, 1948, Part 2, A (3), which states that 'pending final solution, the territory evacuated by the Pakistani troops will be
administered by local authorities.' In Pakistan's scheme of things, this is provisional, hence an interim arrangement till the final settlement of the
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Kashmir issue according to the UN resolutions," she told DW, adding that an empowered local legislature will be akin to "local authorities" prescribed
by the UN.

Lone added that the clause was more in consonance with an "autonomous" character for the region, preserving its indigenous rights and ownership,
especially over its land and natural resources.

However, Junaid Qureshi, director of the European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS), expects the decision to tamper with Pakistan’s
strategic considerations at the UN.  

"When Pakistan calls for Kashmir's right to self-determination, it only refers to India-administered Kashmir, and not the part that it controls. As per UN
resolutions, Pakistan has agreed to withdraw all its troops from the region, after which India would withdraw its forces," Qureshi said, adding that the
UN's Kashmir resolutions are no longer applicable or relevant.

By declaring Gilgit-Baltistan its province, Islamabad would treat the area as "non-controversial," which would allow New Delhi to assume the same
status for the Kashmir region that it governs..

Experts say the provincial status move would make the regional borders permanent, with India and Pakistan both governing their integrated parts of
the Himalayan region and maintaining status-quo.

A permanent status for any part of the disputed area is a violation of the UN resolutions. Kashmiri activists on both sides of the border, those who seek
an independent and unified state, are against New Delhi's August 2019 decision to integrate its part of Kashmir and now Islamabad's move to declare
Gilgit-Baltistan its official province because they see these developments as attempts to make the current Line of Control (Kashmir border) permanent.

Read more: Why calls for independence are getting louder in Pakistani Kashmir

Attempt to appease China?

Qureshi believes that Pakistan's Gilgit-

Baltistan maneuver is aimed at appeasing
China, whose billion-dollar China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) runs through the
region.

Read more: Skepticism in Gilgit-Baltistan

over China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

"China has been expanding its presence and

influence in Gilgit-Baltistan and is colluding
with Pakistani authorities to help them
cement their occupation of the area," Kamal
Madishetty, a researcher at the Institute of
Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi, told
DW.
INDI A - PA K ISTAN RIVALRY: KASHMIRIS PAY A H I G H P R I C E
"China's presence there poses a strategic
An unprecedented danger? threat to India. For instance, there could be
On February 27, Pakistan's military said that it had shot down two Indian fighter jets over disputed
Chinese troops entering Gilgit-Baltistan
Kashmir. A Pakistani military spokesman said the jets were shot down after they'd entered Pakistani
airspace. It is the first time in history that two nuclear-armed powers have conducted air strikes against each sometime in the future under the guise of
other. providing security to CPEC assets," he added.

Analyst Qureshi says that CPEC runs through

a disputed territory, which makes the project
illegal, and that is why China wants Pakistan
to declare Gilgit-Baltistan its official province.

"When you invest $60 billion (€51 billion) in a region, you don't want it to be a contested land. That is why it is important for Beijing that Islamabad
makes Gilgit-Baltistan its legally declared province," he said.

Some locals agree with this assessment.

"Chinese influence is increasing in Gilgit-Baltistan, which will prompt India and the US to intervene. This could pose a threat to the stability of the
region," Nawaz Naji, a former member of the Gilgit-Baltistan assembly, told DW.

"If Islamabad goes ahead with its plan, we will resist it peacefully and politically," he added.

Ijaz Awan, a retired Pakistani military official, denies the China appeasement claims. "The Pakistani government wants the Gilgit Baltistan residents to
benefit from CPEC and other development projects. Also, the provincial status would be a temporary arrangement until
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find the final solution to the
Kashmir dispute according to UN resolutions," Awan told DW. Take a look at the beta version of dw.com. We're not
done yet! Your opinion can help us make it better.
Read more: Pakistan: China-backed hydropower projects irk locals, environmentalists
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Kashmiris wary of India-Pakistan border

skirmishes

Demographic changes

Prior to the independence of India and Pakistan from British rule in 1947, Gilgit-Baltistan was part of the same administrative unit as India's Ladakh
region. However, its demography has changed over the years, making it more integrated to the rest of Pakistan than ever.

"CPEC will open up the region and increase the flow of people from other parts of Pakistan into Gilgit-Baltistan. It will eventually change the region's
demography," Saleem Qadri, a journalist based in India-administered Kashmir, told DW.

Read more: Pakistani husbands distressed as Uighur wives face Chinese crackdown

Many locals see the demographic change as a threat to their culture and economic interests. Some, however, see a benefit in development projects and
economic assimilation.

"There has been a long-standing local demand for the region to be completely assimilated into Pakistan. After India's integration of its part of Kashmir,
it has become even more pertinent," said a local on condition of anonymity.

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