Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Author(s): Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman

Source: Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4157 (Sep. 27, 1974), pp. 1124-1131
Published by: American Association for the Advancement of Science
Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1738360
Accessed: 07-05-2019 03:33 UTC

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 occupation from a list of possibilities
(for example, farmer, salesman, airline
pilot, librarian, or physician)? How do
people order these occupations from
most to least likely? In the representa-
Judgment under Uncertainty: tiveness heuristic, the probability that
Steve is a librarian, for example, is
Heuristics and Biases assessed by the degree to which he is
representative of, or similar to, the
stereotype of a librarian. Indeed, re-
Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of search with problems of this type has
shown that people order the occupa-
thinking under uncertainty. tions by probability and by similarity
in exactly the same way (1). This ap-
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman proach to the judgment of probability
leads to serious errors, because sim-
ilarity, or representativeness, is not in-
fluenced by several factors that should
affect judgments of probability.
Many decisions are based on beliefs mated when visibility is good becauseInsensitivity to prior probability of
concerning the likelihood of uncertain the objects are seen sharply. Thus, the
outcomes. One of the factors that have
reliance on clarity as an indication of
events such as the outcome of an elec- no effect on representativeness but
tion, the guilt of a defendant, ordistance
the leads to common biases. Such should have a major effect on probabil-
biases are also found in the intuitive
future value of the dollar. These beliefs ity is the prior probability, or base-rate
judgment of probability. This article
are usually expressed in statements such frequency, of the outcomes. In the case
as "I think that . .. ," "chances are describes three heuristics that are em- of Steve, for example, the fact that
. . .," "it is unlikely that . .. ," and ployed to assess probabilities and there to are many more farmers than li-
so forth. Occasionally, beliefs concern- predict values. Biases to which these brarians in the population should enter
ing uncertain events are expressed in heuristics lead are enumerated, and the into any reasonable estimate of the
numerical form as odds or subjective applied and theoretical implications of probability that Steve is a librarian
probabilities. What determines such be- these observations are discussed. rather than a farmer. Considerations of
liefs? How do people assess the prob- base-rate frequency, however, do not
ability of an uncertain event or the affect the similarity of Steve to the
value of an uncertain quantity? This Representativeness stereotypes of librarians and farmers.
article shows that people rely on a If people evaluate probability by rep-
limited number of heuristic principles Many of the probabilistic questions resentativeness, therefore, prior proba-
which reduce the complex tasks of as- with which people are concerned belong bilities will be neglected. This hypothesis
sessing probabilities and predicting val- to one of the following types: What is was tested in an experiment where prior
ues to simpler judgmental operations. the probability that object A belongs to probabilities were manipulated (1).
In general, these heuristics are quite class B? What is the probability that Subjects were shown brief personality
useful, but sometimes they lead to severe event A originates from process B? descriptions of several individuals, al-
and systematic errors. What is the probability that process B legedly sampled at random from a
The subjective assessment of proba- will generate event A? In answering group of 100 professionals-engineers
bility resembles the subjective assess- such questions, people typically rely on and lawyers. The subjects were asked
ment of physical quantities such as the representativeness heuristic, in to assess, for each description, the prob-
distance or size. These judgments are which probabilities are evaluated by the ability that it belonged to an engineer
all based on data of limited validity, degree to which A is representative of rather than to a lawyer. In one experi-
which are processed according to heu- B, that is, by the degree to which A mental condition, subjects were told
ristic rules. For example, the apparent resembles B. For example, when A is that the group from which the descrip-
distance of an object is determined in highly representative of B, the proba- tions had been drawn consisted of 70
part by its clarity. The more sharply the bility that A originates from B is judged engineers and 30 lawyers. In another
object is seen, the closer it appears to to be high. On the other hand, if A is condition, subjects were told that the
be. This rule has some validity, because not similar to B, the probability that A group consisted of 30 engineers and 70
in any given scene the more distant originates from B is judged to be low. lawyers. The odds that any particular
objects are seen less sharply than nearer For an illustration of judgment by description belongs to an engineer
objects. However, the reliance on this representativeness, consider an indi- rather than to a lawyer should be
rule leads to systematic errors in the vidual who has been described by a higher in the first condition, where there
estimation of distance. Specifically, dis- former neighbor as follows: "Steve isis a majority of engineers, than in the
tances are often overestimated when very shy and withdrawn, invariablysecond condition, where there is a
visibility is poor because the contours helpful, but with little interest in peo-majority of lawyers. Specifically, it can
of objects are blurred. On the other ple, or in the world of reality. A meekbe shown by applying Bayes' rule that
hand, distances are often underesti- and tidy soul, he has a need for order the ratio of these odds should be (.7/.3)2,
and structure, and a passion for detail."or 5.44, for each description. In a sharp
The authors are members of the department of
psychology at the Hebrew University, Jerusalem,
How do people assess the probabilityviolation of Bayes' rule, the subjects
Tsrael. that Steve is engaged in a particular in the two conditions produced essen-
1124 SCIENCE, VOL. 185

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tially the same probability judgments. sample size. Indeed, when subjects In this problem, the correct pos,terior
Apparently, subjects evaluated the like- assessed the distributions of average odds are 8 to 1 for the 4: 1 sample
lihood that a particular description be- height for samples of various sizes, and 16 to 1 for the 12: 8 sample, as-
longed to an engineer rather than to a they produced identical distributions.suming equal prior probabilities. How-
lawyer by the degree to which this For example, the probability of obtain- ever, most people feel that the first
description was representative of the ing an average height greater than 6 sample provides much stronger evidence
two stereotypes, with little or no regard feet was assigned the same value for for the hypothesis ithat the urn is pre-
for the prior probabilities of the cate- samples of 1000, 100, and 10 men (2). dominantly red, because the proportion
gories. Moreover, subjects failed to appreciate of red balls is larger in the first than in
The subjects used prior probabilities the role of sample size even when it the second sample. Here again, intuitive
correctly when they had no other infor- was emphasized in the formulation of judgments are dominated by the sample
mation. In the absence of a personality the problem. Consider the following proportion and are essentially unaffected
sketch, they judged the probability that question: by the size of the sample, which plays
an unknown individual is an engineer a crucial role in the determination of
A certain town is served by two hos-
to be .7 and .3, respectively, in the two the actual posterior odds (2). In ad-
pitals. In the larger hospital about 45
base-rate conditions. However, prior babies are born each day, and in the dition, intuitive estimates of posterior
probabilities were effectively ignored smaller hospital about 15 babies are born odds are far less extreme than the cor-
when a description was introduced, each day. As you know, about 50 percent rect values. The underestimation of the
even when this description was totally of all babies are boys. However, the exact impact of evidence has been observed
percentage varies from day to day. Some-
uninformative. The responses to the repeatedly in problems of this type (3, 4).
times it may be higher than 50 percent,
following description illustrate this phe- sometimes lower. It has been labeled "conservatism."
nomenon: Misconceptions of chance. People ex-
For a period of 1 year, each hospital
Dick is a 30 year old man. He is mar-
recorded the days on which more than 60 pect that a sequence of events generated
percent of the babies born were boys. by a random process will represent the
ried with no children. A man of high
Which hospital do you think recorded
ability and high motivation, he promises essential characteristics of that process
more such days?
to be quite successful in his field. He is even when the sequence is short. In
well liked by his colleagues. - The larger hospital (21)
- The smaller hospital (21) considering tosses of a coin for heads
or tails, for example, people regard the
This description was intended to convey - A!bout the same (that is, within 5
no information relevant to the question percent of each other) (53)
sequence H-T-H-T-T-H to be more
of whether Dick is an engineer or a The values in parentheses are the num-likely than the sequence H-H-H-T-T-T,
lawyer. Consequently, the probabilityber of undergraduate students who which does not appear random, and
that Dick is an engineer should equal chose each answer. also more likely than the sequence H-H-
the proportion of engineers in the H-H-T-H, which does not represent the
Most subjects judged the probability
group, as if no description had been of obtaining more than 60 percent boysfairness of the coin (2). Thus, people
given. The subjects, however, judgedto be the same in the small and in the expect that the essential characteristics
of the process will be represented, not
the probability of Dick being an engi- large hospital, presumably because these
neer to be .5 regardless of whether the events are described by the same sta-only globally in the entire sequence,
stated proportion of engineers in thetistic and are therefore equally repre-but also locally in each of its parts. A
group was .7 or .3. Evidently, people sentative of the general population. Inlocally representative sequence, how-
ever, deviates systematically from chance
respond differently when given no evi- contrast, sampling theory entails that
dence and when given worthless evi- the expected number of days on which expectation: it contains too many al-
dence. When no specific evidence is more than 60 percent of ithe babies are ternations and too few runs. Another
consequence of the belief in local rep-
given, prior probabilities are properly boys is much greater in the small hos-
utilized; when worthless evidence is pital than in the large one, becauseresentativeness
a is the well-known gam-
bler's fallacy. After observing a long
given, prior probabilities are ignoredlarge sample is less likely to stray from
(1). run of red on the roulette wheel. for
50 percent. This fundamental notion
Insensitivity to sample size. To eval- of statistics is evidently not part of example, most people erroneously be-
uate the probability of obtaining a par- people's repertoire of intuitions. lieve that black is now due, presumably
ticular result in a sample drawn from because the occurrence of black will
A similar insensitivity to sample size
a specified population, people typically has been reported in judgments of pos- result in a more representative sequence
apply the representativeness heuristic. terior probability, that is, of the prob- than the occurrence of an additional
That is, they assess the likelihood of ability that a sample has been drawn red. Chance is commonly viewed as a
a sample result, for example, that the from one population rather than from self-correcting process in which a devi-
average height in a random sample of another. Consider the following ex- ation in one direction induces a devia-
ten men will be 6 feet (180 centi- ample: tion in the opposite direction to restore
meters), by the similarity of this result the equilibrium. In fact, deviations are
to the corresponding parameter (thatImagine an urn filled with balls, of not "corrected" as a chance process
which 2/3 are of one color and ?3 of
is, to the average height in the popula- unfolds, they are merely diluted.
another. One individual has drawn 5 balls
tion of men). The similarity of a sam-,from the urn, and found that 4 were red Misconceptions of chance are not
ple statistic to a population parameter and 1 was white Another individual has limited to naive subjects. A study of
does not depend on the size of the drawn 20 balls and found that 12 were the statistical intuitions of experienced
sample. Consequently, if probabilities red and 8 were white. Which of the two research psychologists (5) revealed a
individuals should feel more confident that
are assessed by representativeness, then lingering belief in what may be called
the urn contains 2/3 red balls and 1/3 white
the judged probability of a sample sta- balls, rather than the opposite? What odds the "law of small numbers," according
tistic will be essentially independent of should each individual give? to which even small samples are highly
27 SEPTEMBER 1974 1125

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representative of the populations from dent teacher during a particular prac- whose first-year record consists entirely
which they are drawn. The responses tice lesson. Some subjects were asked of B's than in predicting the grade-
of these investigators reflected the ex- to evaluate the quality of the lesson point average of a student whose first-
pectation that a valid hypothesis about described in the paragraph in percentile year record includes many A's and C's.
a population will be represented by a scores, relative to a specified population. Highly consistent patterns are most
statistically significant result in a sam- Other subjects were asked to predict, often observed when the input vari-
ple-with little regard for its size. As also in percentile scores, the standing ables are highly redundant or correlated.
a consequence, the researchers put too of each student teacher 5 years after Hence, people tend to have great con-
much faith in the results of small sam- the practice lesson. The judgments made fidence in predictions based on redun-
ples and grossly overestimated the under the two conditions were identical. dant input variables. However, an
replicability of such results. In the That is, the prediction of a remote elementary result in the statistics of cor-
actual conduct of research, this bias criterion (success of a teacher after 5 relation asserts that, given input vari-
leads to ithe selection of samples of years) was identical to the evaluation ables of stated validity, a prediction
inadequate size and to overinterpretation of the information on which the predic- based on several such inputs can
of findings. tion was based (the quality of the achieve higher accuracy when they are
Insensitivity to predictability. People practice lesson). The students who made independent of each other than when
are sometimes called upon to make such these predictions were undoubtedly they are redundant or correlated. Thus,
numerical predictions as the future value aware of the limited predictability of redundancy among inputs decreases
of a stock, the demand for a commod- teaching competence on the basis of a accuracy even as it increases confidence,
ity, or the outcome of a football game. single trial lesson 5 years earlier; never-
and people are often confident in pre-
Such predictions are often made by theless, their predictions were as ex- dictions that are quite likely to be off
representativeness. For example, sup- treme as their evaluations. the mark (1).
pose one is given a description of a The illusion of validity. As we have Misconceptions of regression. Suppose
company and is asked to predict its seen, people often predict by selectinga large group of children has been
future profit. If the description of ithe the outcome (for example, an occupa- examined on two equivalent versions of
company is very favorable, a very tion) that is most representative of the
an aptitude test. If one selects ten chil-
high profit will appear most represen- input (for example, the description ofdren from among those who did best on
tative of that description; if the descrip- a person). The confidence they have one of the two versions, he will usually
tion is mediocre, a mediocre perform- in their prediction depends primarily find their performance on the second
ance will appear most representative. on the degree of representativeness version to be somewhat disappointing.
The degree to which the description is (that is, on the quality of the match Conversely, if one selects ten children
favorable is unaffected by the reliability between the selected outcome and the from among those who did worst on
of that description or by the degree to input) with little or no regard for the one version, they will be found, on the
which it permits accurate prediction. factors that limit predictive accuracy. average, to do somewhat better on the
Hence, if people predict solely in terms Thus, people express great confidence other version. More generally, consider
of the favorableness of the description, in the prediction that a person is two a variables X and Y which have the
their predictions will be insensitive to librarian when given a description of distribution. If one selects indi-
same
the reliability of the evidence and to his personality which matches the viduals whose average X score deviates
the expected accuracy of the prediction. stereotype of librarians, even if the from the mean of X by k units, then
This mode of judgment violates the description is scanty, unreliable, or out- the average of their Y scores will usual-
normative statistical theory in whichdated. The unwarranted confidence ly deviate from the mean of Y by less
the extremeness and the range of pre- which is produced by a good fit between than k units. These observations illus-
dictions are controlled by considerations the predicted outcome and the trate input a general phenomenon known as
of predictability. When predictability information may be called the illusion regression toward the mean, which was
is nil, the same prediction should be of validity. This illusion persists even
first documented by Galton more than
made in all cases. For example, if the when the judge is aware of the factors 100 years ago.
descriptions of companies provide no that limit the accuracy of his predic- In the normal course of life, one
information relevant to profit, then the tions. It is a common observation that encounters many instances of regression
same value (such as average profit) psychologists who conduct selection toward the mean, in the comparison
should be predicted for all companies. interviews often experience considerable of the height of fathers and sons, of
If predictability is perfect, of course, confidence in their predictions, even the intelligence of husbands and wives,
the values predicted will match the when they know of the vast literature or of the performance of individuals
actual values and the range of predic- that shows selection interviews to be on consecutive examinations. Neverthe-
tions will equal the range of outcomes. highly fallible. The continued reliance less, people do not develop correct in-
In general, the higher the predictability, on the clinical interview for selection, tuitions about this phenomenon. First,
the wider the range of predicted values. despite repeated demonstrations of its they do not expect regression in many
Several studies of numerical predic- inadequacy, amply attests to the strength contexts where it is bound to occur.
tion have demonstrated that intuitive of this effect. Second, when they recognize the occur-
predictions violate this rule, and that The internal consistency of a pattern rence of regression, they often invent
subjects show little or no regard forof inputs is a major determinant of spurious causal explanations for it (1).
considerations of predictability (1).one's
In confidence in predictions based We suggest that the phenomenon of re-
on these inputs. For example, people
one of these studies, subjects were pre- gression remains elusive because it is in-
sented with several paragraphs, each express more confidence in predicting the compatible with the belief that the
describing the performance of a stu- final grade-point average of a student predicted outcome should be maximally
1126 SCIENCE, VOL. 185

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representative of the input, and, hence, which instances or occurrences can be
begin with r (road) and words that
that the value of the outcome variable have r in the third position (car) and
brought to mind. For example, one may
should be as extreme as the value of
assess the risk of heart attack among
assess the relative frequency by the
the input variable. middle-aged people by recalling suchease with which words of the two types
The failure to recognize the import
occurrences among one's acquaintances.
come to mind. Because it is much easier
of regression can have pernicious con- Similarly, one may evaluate the proba- to search for words by their first letter
sequences, as illustrated by the follow-
bility that a given business venture will than by their third letter, most people
ing observation (1). In a discussion fail by imagining various difficultiesjudgeit words that begin with a given
of flight training, experienced instruc-
could encounter. This judgmental heu- consonant to be more numerous than
tors noted that praise for an exception-
ristic is called availability. Availability
words in which the. same consonant ap-
is a useful clue for assessing frequency
ally smooth landing is typically followed pears in the third position. They do so
by a poorer landing on the next try, or probability, because instances of even for consonants, such as r or k,
while harsh criticism after a roughlarge classes are usually recalled better that are more frequent in the third
landing is usually followed by an im- and faster than instances of less fre- position than in the first (6).
provement on the next try. The instruc-quent classes. However, availability is Different tasks elicit different search
tors concluded that verbal rewards are affected by factors other than frequency
sets. For example, suppose you are
detrimental to learning, while verbal and probability. Consequently, the re- asked to rate the frequency with which
punishments are beneficial, contrary toliance on availability leads to predicta-
abstract words (thought, love) and con-
accepted psychological doctrine. This ble biases, some of which are illustrated
crete words (door, water) appear in
conclusion is unwarranted because of below.
written English. A natural way to
the presence of regression toward ithe
Biases due to the retrievability of in- answer this question is to search for
mean. As in other cases of repeated
stances. When the size of a class is
contexts in which the word could ap-
examination, an improvement will usu-
judged by the availability of itspear. in- It seems easier to think of
ally follow a poor performance andstances, a class whose instances are
contexts in which an abstract concept
a deterioration will usually follow an retrieved will appear more is
easily nu-
mentioned (love in love stories) than
outstanding performance, even ifmerous
the than a class of equal frequency to think of contexts in which a concrete
instructor does not respond to ,the
whose instances are less retrievable. In
word (such as door) is mentioned. If
trainee's achievement on the first at- an elementary demonstration of this ef-
the frequency of words is judged by the
tempt. Because the instructors had fect, subjects heard a list of well-knownavailability of the contexts in which
praised their trainees after good land- personalities of both sexes and were
they appear, abstract words will be
ings and admonished them after poorsubsequently asked to judge whether thejudged as relatively more numerous than
ones, they reached the erroneous and
list contained more names of men than concrete words. This bias has been ob-
potentially harmful conclusion that pun-of women. Different lists were presentedserved in a recent study (7) which
ishment is more effective than reward.
to different groups of subjects. In some showed that the judged frequency of
Thus, the failure to understand the of the lists the men were relatively more occurrence of abstract words was much
effect of regression leads one to over- famous than the women, and in others
higher than that of concrete words,
estimate the effectiveness of punish- the women were relatively more famous
ment and to underestimate the effec- equated in objective frequency. Abstract
than the men. In each of the lists, the words were also judged to appear in a
tiveness of reward. In social interaction,
subjects erroneously judged that themuch greater variety of contexts than
as well as in training, rewards are typ- class (sex) that had the more famous concrete words.
ically administered when performance
personalities was the more numerous Biases of imaginability. Sometimes
is good, and punishments are typically
(6). one has to assess the frequency of a
administered when performance is
In addition to familiarity, there are class whose instances are not stored in
poor. By regression alone, therefore,
other factors, such as salience, which memory but can be generated accord-
behavior is most likely to improve after
affect the retrievability of instances. For ing to a given rule. In such situations,
punishment and most likely to deterio-
example, the impact of seeing a house one typically generates several instances
rate after reward. Consequently, the
burning on the subjective probability of and evaluates frequency or probability
human condition is such that, by chance
alone, one is most often rewarded for such accidents is probably greater than by the ease with which the relevant in-
punishing others and most often pun-
the impact of reading about a fire in stances can be constructed. However,
ished for rewarding them. People are the local paper. Furthermore, recent oc- the ease of constructing instances does
generally not aware of this contingency. currences are likely to be relatively not always reflect their actual frequency,
more available than earlier occurrences. and this mode of evaluation is prone
In fact, the elusive role of regression
in determining the apparent conse- It is a common experience that the to biases. To illustrate, consider a group
quences of reward and punishment subjective probability of traffic accidents of 10 people who form committees of
seems to have escaped the notice of stu- rises temporarily when one sees a car k members, 2 < k < 8. How many
dents of this area. overturned by the side of the road.
different committees of k members can
Biases due to the effectiveness of a be formed? The correct answer to this
search set. Suppose one samples a word problem is given by the binomial coef-
Availability (of three letters or more) at random ficient (10) which reaches a maximum
ri -kr\/ rrivrI/~il O IULLUL
from an English text. Is it more likely of 252 for k = 5. Clearly, the number
There are situations in which peoplethat the word starts with r or that of committees of k members equals
assess the frequency of a class or ther is the third letter? People approach the number of committees of (10 - k)
this problem by recalling words that
probability of an event by the ease with members, because any committee of k
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members defines a unique group of natural associates, such as suspicious- That is, different starting points yield
(10 - k) nonmembers. ness and peculiar eyes. This effect was different estimates, which are biased
One way to answer this question with- labeled illusory correlation. In their er- toward the initial values. We call this
out computation is to mentally con- roneous judgments of the data to which phenomenon anchoring.
struct committees of k members and they had been exposed, naive subjects Insufficient adjustment. In a demon-
to evaluate their number by the ease
"rediscovered" much of the common, stration of the anchoring effect, subjects
with which they come to mind. Com- but unfounded, clinical lore concern- were asked to estimate various quanti-
mittees of few members, say 2, are ing the interpretation of the draw-a- ties, stated in percentages (for example,
person test. The illusory correlation the percentage of African countries in
more available than committees of many
members, say 8. The simplest schemeeffect was extremely resistant to con- the United Nations). For each quantity,
for the construction of committees is a tradictory data. It persisted even when a number between 0 and 100 was deter-
partition of the group into disjoint sets. the correlation between symptom and mined by spinning a wheel of fortune
One readily sees that it is easy to con- diagnosis was actually negative, and it in the subjects' presence. The subjects
struct five disjoint committees of 2 prevented the judges from detecting were instructed to indicate first whether
members, while it is impossible to gen- relationships that were in fact present. that number was higher or lower than
erate even two disjoint committees of Availability provides a natural ac- the value of the quantity, and then to
8 members. Consequently, if fre- count for the illusory-correlation effect. estimate the value of the quantity by
quency is assessed by imaginability, or The judgment of how frequently two moving upward or downward from the
by availability for construction, the events co-occur could be based on the given number. Different groups were
small committees will appear more num- strength of the associative bond between given different numbers for each quan-
erous than larger committees, in con- them. When the association is strong,tity, and these arbitrary numbers had a
trast to the correct bell-shaped func- one is likely to conclude that the events
marked effect on estimates. For example,
tion. Indeed, when naive subjects were have been frequently paired. Conse- the median estimates of the percentage
asked to estimate the number of distinct of African countries in the United Na-
quently, strong associates will be judged
committees of various sizes, their esti- to have occurred together frequently.tions were 25 and 45 for groups that re-
mates were a decreasing monotonic According to this view, the illusory ceived 10 and 65, respectively, as start-
function of committee size (6). For correlation between suspiciousness ingandpoints. Payoffs for accuracy did not
example, the median estimate of the peculiar drawing of the eyes, forreduceex- the anchoring effect.
number of committees of 2 members ample, is due to the fact that suspi- Anchoring occurs not only when the
was 70, while the estimate for com- ciousness is more readily associated starting
with point is given to the subject,
mittees of 8 members was 20 (the cor- the eyes than with any other part butofalso when the subject bases his
rect answer is 45 in both cases). the body. estimate on the result of some incom-
Imaginability plays an important role Lifelong experience has taught us plete computation. A study of intuitive
in the evaluation of probabilities in real-that, in general, instances of large numerical estimation illustrates this ef-
life situations. The risk involved in an classes are recalled better and faster fect. Two groups of high school students
adventurous expedition, for example, thanis instances of less frequent classes;
estimated, within 5 seconds, a numerical
that likely occurrences are easier
evaluated by imagining contingencies to
expression that was written on the
with which the expedition is not imagine than unlikely ones; and that
blackboard. One group estimated the
equipped to cope. If many such difficul- the associative connections between product
ties are vividly portrayed, the expedi- events are strengthened when the events
8X7X6XSX4x3X2X1
tion can be made to appear exceedingly frequently co-occur. As a result, man
dangerous, although the ease with which has at his disposal a procedurewhile (the another group estimated
product
disasters are imagined need not reflect availability heuristic) for estimating the
their actual likelihood. Conversely, the numerosity of a class, the likelihood of
1x2x3x4x5X6x7X8
risk involved in an undertaking may be an event, or the frequency of co-occur-
grossly underestimated if some possible rences, by the ease with whichTo therapidly answer such questio
ple may perform a few steps of
dangers are either difficult to conceive relevant mental operations of retrieval,
of, or simply do not come to mind. construction, or association can be tation and estimate the produ
Illusory correlation. Chapman and performed. However, as the preceding extrapolation or adjustment. Be
Chapman (8) have described an interest-examples have demonstrated, this valu- justments are typically insuffic
ing bias in the judgment of the fre- able estimation procedure results in procedure should lead to under
quency with which two events co-occur. systematic errors. tion. Furthermore, because the
They presented naive judges with in- the first few steps of multiplicat
formation concerning several hypothet- formed from left to right) is h
ical mental patients. The data for each Adjustment and Anchoring the descending sequence than
patient consisted of a clinical diagnosis ascending sequence, the former
and a drawing of a person made by In many situations, people make esti- sion should be judged larger
the patient. Later the judges estimated mates by starting from an initial value latter. Both predictions were co
the frequency with which each diagnosis that is adjusted to yield the final answer. The median estimate for the as
(such as paranoia or suspiciousness) The initial value, or starting point, may sequence was 512, while the m
had been accompanied by various fea-be suggested by the formulation of the estimate for the descending sequence
tures of the drawing (such as peculiarproblem, or it may be the result of awas 2,250. The correct answer is 40,320.
eyes). The subjects markedly overesti-partial computation. In either case, Biases in the evaluation of conjunc-
mated the frequency of co-occurrence of adjustments are typically insufficient (4). tive and disjunctive events. In a recent
1128 SCIENCE, VOL. 185

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study by Bar-Hillel (9) subjects were tained probability distributions for many
large. The general tendency to overesti-
given the opportunity to bet on one of quantities from a large number of
mate the probability of conjunctive
two events. Three types of events were events leads to unwarranted optimism judges.
inThese distributions indicated
used: (i) simple events, such as drawing the evaluation of the likelihood that a large and systematic departures from
a red marble from a bag containing 50 plan will succeed or that a project will proper calibration. In most studies, the
percent red marbles and 50 percent be completed on time. Conversely, dis- actual values of the assessed quantities
white marbles; (ii) conjunctive events, junctive structures are typically encoun-are either smaller than X0l or greater
such as drawing a red marble seven tered in the evaluation of risks. A com-
than X09 for about 30 percent of the
times in succession, with replacement, plex system, such as a nuclear reactor problems. That is, the subjects state
from a bag containing 90 percent red or a human body, will malfunction if overly narrow confidence intervals which
marbles and 10 percent white marbles; any of its essential components fails. reflect more certainty than is justified by
and (iii) disjunctive events, such as Even when the likelihood of failure in their knowledge about the assessed
drawing a red marble at least once in quantities. This bias is common to
each component is slight, the probability
of an overall failure can be high if
seven successive tries, with replacement, naive and to sophisticated subjects, and
from a bag containing 10 percent red many components are involved. Be- it is not eliminated by introducing prop-
marbles and 90 percent white marbles.cause of anchoring, people will tend to er scoring rules, which provide incentives
In this problem, a significant majorityunderestimate the probabilities of failure for external calibration. This effect is at-
in complex systems. Thus, the direc- tributable, in part at least, to anchoring.
of subjects preferred to bet on the con-
tion of the anchoring bias can some-
junctive event (the probability of which To select X90 for the value of the
is .48) rather than on the simple eventtimes be inferred from the structure of Dow-Jones average, for example, it is
(the probability of which is .50). Sub-the event. The chain-like structure of natural to begin by thinking about one's
conjunctions
jects also preferred to bet on the simple leads to overestimation, thebest estimate of the Dow-Jones and to
event rather than on the disjunctivefunnel-like structure of disjunctions adjust this value upward. If this adjust-
leads to underestimation.
event, which has a probability of .52. ment-like most others-is insufficient,
Thus, most subjects bet on the less likely Anchoring in the assessment of sub- then X9o will not be sufficiently extreme.
event in both comparisons. This pattern jective probability distributions. In deci-
A similar anchoring effect will occur in
of choices illustrates a general finding.sion analysis, experts are often required
the selection of X0,, which is presumably
Studies of choice among gambles andto express their beliefs about a quantity, obtained by adjusting one's best esti-
of judgments of probability indicatesuch as the value of the Dow-Jones mate downward. Consequently, the con-
that people tend to overestimate theaverage on a particular day, in the fidence interval between X1O and X90
probability of conjunctive events (10)
form of a probability distribution. Such will be too narrow, and the assessed
and to underestimate the probability of a distribution is usually constructed by probability distribution will be too tight.
disjunctive events. These biases are asking the person to select values of In support of this interpretation it can
readily explained as effects of anchor- the quantity that correspond to specified be shown that subjective probabilities
ing. The stated probability of the percentiles of his subjective probability are systematically altered by a proce-
elementary event (success at any one distribution. For example, the judge dure in which one's best estimate does
stage) provides a natural starting point may be asked to select a number, X90, not serve as an anchor.
for the estimation of the probabilities of such that his subjective probability that Subjective probability distributions
both conjunctive and disjunctive events. this number will be higher than, the for a given quantity (the Dow-Jones
Since adjustment from the starting point value of the Dow-Jones average is .90. average) can be obtained in two differ-
is typically insufficient, the final esti- That is, he should select the value X90 ent ways: (i) by asking the subject to
mates remain too close to the probabili- so that he is just willing to accept 9 to select values of the Dow-Jones that
ties of the elementary events in both 1 odds that the Dow-Jones average will correspond to specified percentiles of
cases. Note that the overall probability not exceed it. A subjective probability his probability distribution and (ii) by
of a conjunctive event is lower than distribution for the value of the Dow- asking the subject to assess the prob-
the probability of each elementary Jones average can be constructed fromabilities that the true value of the
event, whereas the overall probability of several such judgments corresponding to Dow-Jones will exceed some specified
a disjunctive event is higher than thedifferent percentiles. values. The two procedures are formally
probability of each elementary event. By collecting subjective probabilityequivalent and should yield identical
As a consequence of anchoring, the distributions for many different quanti-
distributions. However, they suggest dif-
overall probability will be overestimated ties, it is possible to test the judge forferent modes of adjustment from differ-
in conjunctive problems and underesti- proper calibration. A judge is properlycent anchors. In procedure (i), the
mated in disjunctive problems. (or externally) calibrated in a set ofnatural starting point is one's best esti-
Biases in the evaluation of compound problems if exactly II percent of the mate of the quantity. In procedure (ii),
events are particularly significant in the true values of the assessed quantitieson the other hand, the subject may be
context of planning. The successful falls below his stated values of Xr. For anchored on the value stated in the
completion of an undertaking, such as example, the true values should fall question. Alternatively, he may be an-
the development of a new product, typi- below X0l for 1 percent of the quanti- chored on even odds, or 50-50 chances,
cally has a conjunctive character: for ties and above X99 for 1 percent of thewhich is a natural starting point in the
the undertaking to succeed, each of a quantities. Thus, the true values should estimation of likelihood. In either case,
series of events must occur. Even when fall in the confidence interval between procedure (ii) should yield less extreme
each of these events is very likely, theX01 and X99 on 98 percent of the prob- odds than procedure (i).
overall probability of success can belems. To contrast the two procedures, a
quite low if the number of events is Several investigators (11) have ob- set of 24 quantities (such as the air dis-
27 SEPTEMBER 1974 1129

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tance from New Delhi to Peking) was It is not surprising that useful heuris-subjective interpretation of probability
presented to a group of subjects who tics such as representativeness and that is applicable to unique events and
assessed either XI0 or X90 for each prob- availability are retained, even though is embedded in a general theory of ra-
lem. Another group of subjects re- they occasionally lead to errors in pre- tional decision.
ceived the median judgment of the first diction or estimation. What is perhaps It should perhaps be noted that, while
group for each of the 24 quantities. surprising is the failure of people to subjective probabilities can sometimes
They were asked to assess the odds that infer from lifelong experience such be inferred from preferences among
each of the given values exceeded the fundamental statistical rules as regres- bets, they are normally not formed in
true value of the relevant quantity. In sion toward the mean, or the effect of this fashion. A person bets on team A
the absence of any bias, the second sample size on sampling variability. Al- rather than on team B because he be-
group should retrieve the odds specified though everyone is exposed, in the nor- lieves that team A is more likely to
to the first group, that is, 9:1. How- mal course of life, to numerous ex- win; he does not infer this belief from
ever, if even odds or the stated value amples from which these rules could his betting preferences. Thus, in reality,
serve as anchors, the odds of the sec- have been induced, very few people subjective probabilities determine pref-
ond group should be less extreme, that discover the principles of sampling and erences among bets and are not de-
is, closer to 1:1. Indeed, the median rived from them, as in the axiomatic
regression on their own. Statistical prin-
odds stated by this group, across all ciples are not learned from everyday theory of rational decision (12).
problems, were 3:1. When the judg- experience because the relevant in- The inherently subjective nature of
ments of the two groups were tested stances are not coded appropriately. For probability has led many students to the
for external calibration, it was found example, people do not discover that belief that coherence, or internal con-
that subjects in the first group were too successive lines in a text differ more in sistency, is the only valid criterion by
extreme, in accord with earlier studies. average word length than do successivewhich judged probabilities should be
The events that they defined as having pages, because they simply do not at- evaluated. From the standpoint of the
a probability of .10 actually obtained in tend to the average word length of in-formal theory of subjective probability,
24 percent of the cases. In contrast, dividual lines or pages. Thus, people any set of internally consistent probabil-
subjects in the second group were too do not learn the relation between sample ity judgments is as good as any other.
conservative. Events to which they as- size and sampling variability, althoughThis criterion is not entirely satisfactory,
signed an average probability of .34 the data for such learning are abundant. because an internally consistent set of
actually obtained in 26 percent of the The lack of an appropriate code also
subjective probabilities can be incom-
explains why people usually do not
cases. These results illustrate the man- patible with other beliefs held by the
detect the biases in their judgments ofindividual. Consider a person whose
ner in which the degree of calibration
probability. A person could conceivably
depends on the procedure of elicitation. subjective probabilities for all possible
learn whether his judgments are exter- outcomes of a coin-tossing game reflect
the gambler's fallacy. That is, his esti-
nally calibrated by keeping a tally of the
Discussion mate of the probability of tails on a
proportion of events that actually occur
among those to which he assigns the particular toss increases with the num-
This article has been concerned with same probability. However, it is not ber of consecutive heads that preceded
cognitive biases that stem from the reli- natural to group events by their judgedthat toss. The judgments of such a per-
ance on judgmental heuristics. These probability. In the absence of such son could be internally consistent and
biases are not attributable to motiva- grouping it is impossible for an indivi-therefore acceptable as adequate sub-
dual to discover, for example, that only
tional effects such as wishful thinking or jective probabilities according to the
the distortion of judgments by payoffs 50 percent of the predictions to whichcriterion of the formal theory. These
and penalties. Indeed, several of the he has assigned a probability of .9 or probabilities, however, are incompatible
severe errors of judgment reportedhigher actually came true. with the generally held belief that a
earlier occurred despite the fact that The empirical analysis of cognitive coin has no memory and is therefore in-
subjects were encouraged to be accurate biases has implications for the theoreti-capable of generating sequential de-
and were rewarded for the correct cal and applied role of judged probabili-
pendencies. For judged probabilities to
answers (2, 6). ties. Modern decision theory (12, 13)
be considered adequate, or rational, in-
The reliance on heuristics and the regards subjective probability as the
ternal consistency is not enough. The
prevalence of biases are not restrictedquantified opinion of an idealized per-judgments must be compatible with the
to laymen. Experienced researchers are son. Specifically, the subjective proba-entire web of beliefs held by the in-
also prone to the same biases-when bility of a given event is defined by the dividual. Unfortunately, there can be
they think intuitively. For example, set
theof bets about this event that such a no simple formal procedure for assess-
tendency to predict the outcome that person is willing to accept. An inter- ing the compatibility of a set of proba-
nally consistent, or coherent, subjective bility judgments with the judge's total
best represents the data, with insufficient
regard for prior probability, has been probability measure can be derived for system of beliefs. The rational judge
observed in the intuitive judgments an of individual if his choices among bets will nevertheless strive for compatibility,
individuals who have had extensive satisfy certain principles, that is, the even though internal consistency is
training in statistics (1, 5). Although axioms of the theory. The derived prob- more easily achieved and assessed. In
the statistically sophisticated avoid ability is subjective in the sense that particular, he will attempt to make his
elementary errors, such as the gambler'sdifferent individuals are allowed to have probability judgments compatible with
fallacy, their intuitive judgmentsdifferent
are probabilities for the same event. his knowledge about the subject mat-
liable to similar fallacies in more in- The major contribution of this ap- ter, the laws of probability, and his own
tricate and less transparent problems. proach is that it provides a rigorous judgmental heuristics and biases.
1130 SCIENCE, VOL. 185

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Summary and
and usually
usuallyeffective,
effective,but
butthey
they
lead to to8.
lead L. J. Chapman and J. P. Chapman, J.
Abnorm. Psychol. 73, 193 (1967); ibid., 74,
systematic
systematicand
andpredictable
predictableerrors.
errors.
A A271 (1969).
This article described three heuristics 9. M. Bar-Hillel, Organ. Behav. Hum. Per-
better
better understanding
understandingofof
these
these
heuristics
heuristics formance 9, 396 (1973).
that are employed in making judgments and and ofof the
thebiases
biasestotowhich
whichthey
theylead
lead
10. J. Cohen, E. I. Chesnick, D. Haran, Br. J.
Psychol. 63, 41 (1972).
under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, could
could improve
improvejudgments
judgments and
and
decisions
decisions11. M. Alpert and H. Raiffa, unpublished manu-
which is usually employed when peo- in in situations
situationsofofuncertainty.
uncertainty. script; C. A. S. von Holstein, Acta Psychol.
35, 478 (1971); R. L. Winkler, J. Am. Stat.
ple are asked to judge the probability Assoc. 62, 776 (1967).
References and Notes
that an object or event A belongs to 12. L. J. Savage, The Foundations of Statistics
(Wiley, New York, 1954).
class or process B; (ii) availability of in- 1. D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, Psychol. Rev.
80, 237 (1973). 13. B. De Finetti, in International Encyclopedia
stances or scenarios, which is often em- 2. - , Cognitive Psychol. 3, 430 (1972). of the Social Sciences, D. E. Sills, Ed. (Mac-
millan, New York, 1968), vol. 12, pp. 496-
ployed when people are asked to assess 3. W. Edwards, in Formal Representation of 504.
Human Judgment, B. Kleinmuntz, Ed. (Wiley, 14. This research was supported by the Advanced
the frequency of a class or the plausibil- New York, 1968), pp. 17-52.
Research Projects Agency of the Department
ity of a particular development; and 4. P. Slovic and S. Lichtenstein, Organ. Behav. of Defense and was monitored by the Office
Hum. Performance 6, 649 (1971). of Naval Research under contract N00014-
(iii) adjustment from an anchor, which 5. A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, Psychol. Bull. 73-C-0438 to the Oregon Research Institute,
is usually employed in numerical predic- 76, 105 (1971). Eugene. Additional support for this research
6. ---- , Cognitive Psychol. 5, 207 (1973). was provided by the Research and Develop-
tion when a relevant value is available.
7. R. C. Galbraith and B. J. Underwood, ment Authority of the Hebrew University,
These heuristics are highly economical Mem. Cognition 1, 56 (1973). Jerusalem, Israel.

accidents (2). In 1970 there were 34,-

107 doctors in Mexico (2). The ratio
of inhabitants to doctors, which is
1423.7, is not a representative index
Rural Health Care in Mexico? of the actual distribution of resources
because there is a great scarcity of
Present educational and administrative structures must be health professionals in rural areas and
a high concentration in urban areas
changed in order to improve health care in rural areas. (Fig. 1) (7, 8).
In order to improve health at a na-
Luis Cainedo
tional level, this situation must be
changed. The errors made in previous
attempts to improve health care must
be avoided, and use must be made of
the available manpower and resources
The
Thepresent
presenthealth
health
carecare
structure in Thein
structure continental and insular area of of modern science to produce feasible
Mexico focuses attention on the urban Mexico, including interior waters,answers
is at the community level. Al-
population, leaving the rural communi- 2,022,058 square kilometers (1, 2).though
In the main objective of a special-
ties practically unattended. There are 1970 the population of Mexico was isit in community medicine is to control
two main factors contributing to this 48,377,363, of which 24,055,305 per-disease, such control cannot be
situation. One is the lack of coordina- sons (49.7 percent) were under 15 achieved unless action is taken against
tion among the different institutions years of age. The Indian population the underlying causes of disease; it has
responsible for the health of the com- made up 7.9 percent of the total (2, 3). already been observed that partial solu-
munity and among the educationalAs indicated in Table 1, 42.3 percent tions are inefficient (9). As a back-
institutions. The other is the lack of of the total population live in commu- ground to this new program that has
information concerning the nature nities
of of less than 2,500 inhabitants, andbeen designed to provide health care
the problems in rural areas. In an in at-
such communities public services as in rural communities, I shall first give
tempt to provide a solution to these
well as means of communication are a summary of the previous attempts
problems, a program has been designed very scarce or nonexistent. A large that
per- have been made to provide such
that takes into consideration the en- centage (39.5 percent) of the econom- care, describing the various medical in-
vironmental conditions, malnutrition,ically active population is engaged in
stitutions and other organizations that
poverty, and negative cultural factorsagriculture (4). are responsible for the training of med-
that are responsible for the high inci- The country's population growth rate ical personnel and for constructing the
dences of certain diseases among rural is high, 3.5 percent annually, and it
facilities required for health care.
populations. It is based on the develop-seems to depend on income, being
ment of a national information system higher among the 50 percent of the
for the collection and dissemination of The author
author is
is an
an investigator
investigator in
in the
thedepartment
department
population earning less than 675 pesos
of molecular biology at the Instituto de Investi-
information related to general, as well($50) per family per month (5). gaciones
The Biomedicas, Universidad Nacional Aut6-
noma de Mexico, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico
as rural, health care, that will providemajority of this population lives in20,theD.F. This article is adapted from a paper
presented at the meeting on Science and Man in
rural areas. The most frequent causes
the basis for a national health care sys-
the Americas, jointly organized by the Consejo
tem, and depends on the establishment of mortality in rural areas are malnu-
Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia de Mexico and
the American Association for the Advancement
of a training program for professionals trition, infectious and parasitic diseases
of Science and held in Mexico City, 20 June to
in community medicine. (6, 7), pregnancy complications,4 and July 1973.

27 SEPTEMBER 1974 1131

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