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Kotri Study-I Draft Inception Report (20 March 05)
Kotri Study-I Draft Inception Report (20 March 05)
Study on
Water Escapages
Below Kotri Barrage to
Check Sea Water Intrusion
(Study-I)
by
MARCH 2005
Kotri Sea Water Intrusion Project
Study - I
Inception Report
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1-1
3.1. Objectives.................................................................................................3-1
3.2. Description...............................................................................................3-1
3.3. Subtask 1.1 – Collection of Background Data and Information..............3-1
3.3.1. Site Visit..........................................................................................................3-1
3.3.2. Previous Studies..............................................................................................3-2
3.3.3. Maps and Drawings........................................................................................3-2
3.3.4. Flow and Stage Data.......................................................................................3-2
3.3.5. Water Table Levels & Saline Data.................................................................3-3
3.3.6. Current Status of Data Collection...................................................................3-3
3.4. Subtask 1.2 – Review and Analysis of Collected Data and Information.3-4
3.5. Subtask 1.3 – Critical Data Needs...........................................................3-5
3.6. Subtask 1.4 – Field Data Collection.........................................................3-5
3.6.1. Survey A - River Cross Section Survey..........................................................3-6
3.6.2. Survey B --Salinity and Water Surface Elevation Survey in River (when no
flow is released below Kotri Barrage)......................................................................3-6
3.6.3. Survey C -- Salinity and Water Surface Elevation Survey in River (When
Flow is being released below Kotri).........................................................................3-6
3.6.4. Survey D – Salinity and Groundwater Table Elevation Survey in Auger Holes
and/or Existing Piezometers.....................................................................................3-7
3.6.5. Survey E – Water Samplings and Analysis....................................................3-7
4.1. Objective:.................................................................................................4-1
4.2. Description:..............................................................................................4-1
4.2.1. Subtask 2.1 – Collect Record of Flow Release below Kotri...........................4-1
4.2.2. Subtask 2.2 – Collect and Analyze Data of Salinity Surveys in the Indus River
...................................................................................................................................4-1
4.2.3. Subtask 2.3 – Collect and Analyze Data of Salinity Surveys in the Aquifers 4-1
5.1. Objective..................................................................................................5-1
5.2. Description...............................................................................................5-1
5.3. Subtask 3.1 – RMA2 Model....................................................................5-1
5.3.1. Instruction.......................................................................................................5-1
5.3.2. Development of RMA2 Model.......................................................................5-2
5.3.3. Verification of RMA2 Model.........................................................................5-5
5.3.4. Simulation of RMA2 Model...........................................................................5-7
5.4. Subtask 3.2 – RMA4 Model....................................................................5-7
5.4.1. Introudction.....................................................................................................5-7
5.4.2. Development of RMA4 Model.......................................................................5-8
5.4.3. Verification of RMA4 Model.........................................................................5-8
5.4.4. Simulation of RMA4 Model...........................................................................5-8
6.1. Subtask 4.1 – Model Simulations of Pre- and Post-Kotri Barrage Flow
Releases.....................................................................................................6-1
6.2. Subtask 4.2 – Groundwater Analysis on the Effect of Seawater Intrusion
on Aquifer.................................................................................................6-2
6.3. Subtask 4.3 –Evaluation and Assessment of Structural Barriers.............6-3
6.3.1. Submerged Weir.............................................................................................6-3
6.3.2. Barrage............................................................................................................6-3
6.3.3. Tide Gate.........................................................................................................6-3
6.3.4. Comparison.....................................................................................................6-3
6.4. Subtask 4.4 – Develop a Non-structural Alternative to Check Seawater
Intrusion....................................................................................................6-4
6.4.1. Relationship Between Flow Release and Seawater Front...............................6-4
6.5. Subtask 4.5 – Cost-Benefit Analysis on the Impact of Seawater Intrusion6-5
6.5.1. Definition of No Control Condition................................................................6-5
6.5.2. Approach.........................................................................................................6-5
7.1. Subtask 5.1 – Relationship between Flow Release and Degree of Seawater
Intrusion....................................................................................................7-1
7.2. Subtask 5.1 – Definition of Minimum Quantity of Required Flow Release7-1
8.1. Objective..................................................................................................8-1
MWH-ACE-NESPAK JV ii March 2005
Kotri (Study-I) Project Sea Water Intrusion Study
Inception Report
8.2. Description...............................................................................................8-1
8.2.1. Monitoring of Seawater Intrusion in Aquifer.................................................8-1
8.2.2. Monitoring of Seawater Intrusion in the River...............................................8-1
8.2.3. Cost Estimate..................................................................................................8-2
9. PROJECT SCHEDULE.............................................................................................9-1
List of Figures
Figure 1 - Sea Water Intrusion in the Estuary
Figure 2 – Sea Water Intrusion in Aquifer due to Over-Pumping
Figure 3 – Project Location Map
Figure 4 - 10-Day Average Flow Below Kotri in Post-Tarbela Period
Figure 5 - RMA2 Model Domain
Figure 6 - GIS Background Map
Figure 7 – GIS Point Objects as Nodes of Elements
Figure 8 – Nodes of Elements before Mesh Generation
Figure 9 – Automatic Mesh/Grid Generation by Triangulation
Figure 10 – Final Grid Configuration after Deleting Outer and Thin Triangles, Merging
Triangles
Figure 11 – Final Grid Configuration with Background Maps
Figure 12 – Important Tasks in RMA2 Verification
Figure 13 – Minimum Required Freshwater Release Below Kotri Barrage
Figure 14 – The Available and the Required Flows
List of Tables
Table 1 - Command Areas of Canals in Lower Sindh (GCA=Gross Command Area,
CCA=Cultivated Command Area)
Table 2 – Summary of Data Collection
List of Exhibits
Exhibit 1 – Project Schedule
Exhibit 2 - Staffing Plan
1. INTRODUCTION
The distribution of Indus waters among the provinces of Pakistan has remained a long-
outstanding issue since 1922, long before independence. As many as six
committees/commissions appointed by the government, two before the independence and
four after the establishment of Pakistan, were entrusted with the issues of apportionment.
However, the issues remained unresolved until 1991. In 1991 the provinces finally
demonstrated a sense of deep understanding and a spirit of mutual cooperation and
reached a consensus accord on the apportionment of the waters of the Indus River
System.
The 1991 Water Accord primarily determined the river water apportionment among the
four provinces of Pakistan for irrigated agriculture. It also comprised the share of
provinces in the surplus discharges flowing in the rivers as floods. The distribution of
river flows is undertaken through two large and one small reservoirs, 19 barrages and 45
major canal systems constructed in the Indus Basin System. Kotri Barrage is the last
major river flow control structure in the Indus River. A long reach of the river of nearly
270 kilometers (km) connects the Barrage to the Arabian Sea. The water flowing in the
reach provides many beneficial roles, including the following:
The need for certain minimum escapages to sea below Kotri was recognized in Para-7 of
the 1991 Water Accord which reads as follows:
“the need for certain minimum escapage to sea, below Kotri, to check sea
intrusion was recognized. Sindh held the view, that the optimum level was
10 maf, which was discussed at length, while other studies indicated
lower/higher figures. It was, therefore, decided that further studies would
be undertaken to establish the minimal escapages needs downstream
Kotri”.
The Government of Punjab objected to these TOR and despite prolonged discussions and
exchange of views, it was decided that the Scope of Study should remain strictly confined
to “checking of sea water intrusion” which would conform precisely to the provisions of
the 1991 Water Accord. The Ministry of Water and Power in February of 1993, therefore,
requested the World Bank suspend all actions on the proposed Study. Later on, the Indus
River System Authority (IRSA), an autonomous organization, was specially created
through legislation for regulating and monitoring the distribution of water resources of the
Indus River among the Provinces, and to settle any question in respect of implementation
of the 1991 Water Accord. In view of the different observations of the Provincial
Governments, the Ministry of Water & Power asked IRSA to resolve the question of
TOR. Accordingly, IRSA prepared its version of the TOR which was not approved by the
Government of Sindh.
The reasons behind the two different positions taken by Punjab and Sindh, were that
Sindh wanted to cater to all the water needs below Kotri to be met out of gross water
quantity (rather than Sindh’s share under the 1991 Water Accord), while Punjab’s view
was that only the water required to check sea intrusion was chargeable to gross quantity.
The two interpretations had a direct impact on the net availability of water for dams and
future water resources development.
Seawater intrusion occurs in river estuary regions where salty seawater moves and
encroaches into freshwater aquifers or freshwater estuaries. Seawater intrusion in
estuaries is typically associated with groundwater pumping in the coastal area. Two
percent seawater in freshwater will make the fresh groundwater unfit for drinking
purposes and nearly four percent would be harmful for crop use.
The extent and configuration of the seawater intrusion in the coastal areas depends on
many factors. These factors include: tidal effects, river flow, river channel configuration,
quantity of stream flow, salinity concentration of river water, type of aquifer (confined,
phreatic, leaky, or multi-layer) and its geology and geometry, groundwater table, saline
concentration of groundwater, seawater density, quantity of groundwater withdrawal or
recharge, rainfall intensities and frequencies, evaporation rates, etc.
Under natural conditions, the seaward movement of freshwater checks seawater from
encroaching river channels or coastal aquifers and the interface between freshwater and
seawater is maintained near the coast or far below land surface. This interface is a zone
in which seawater and freshwater mix, and is referred to as the zone of dispersion, or
transition zone.
When there is a reduced discharge or no discharge at all in the river estuary, freshwater,
being lighter will float on top of seawater as it intrudes inland during the process. Mixing
of freshwater and seawater will take place slowly and as a result, a gradational interface
boundary will form between them. This is illustrated in Figure 1.
Groundwater pumping can reduce freshwater flow in the aquifer toward coastal discharge
areas and cause seawater to be drawn toward the freshwater zones of the aquifer.
The specific objective of this study is to determine the minimum desirable quantity of
Indus water that needs to pass through Kotri Barrage throughout the year to alleviate
adverse impacts, if any, downstream of Kotri Barrage and suggest structural and/or non-
structural measures to arrest/stop the salt water intrusion into the deltaic areas from the
sea.
According to the Terms of Reference, the Scope of Works for the project is as follows:
(1) Collect all available maps, satellite imageries, reports, models and other
information on the Indus River from Kotri Barrage to Sea, covering the pattern of
river flows and sea tides in delta/coastal area.
(2) Carry out a preliminary field review and analysis of the available information to
determine any serious lack of data required for the Study.
(3) Analyze data and find out relationship, if any, between sea water intrusion (both
in terms of surface as well as groundwater contaminations), and the quantity of
fresh water escaping below Kotri Barrage.
(4) Develop a computer model to simulate flow patterns and saline intrusion under
past and future flow patterns and assess the impact on water quality in the river
channel below Kotri Barrage.
(5) Provide alternative solutions to minimize the sea water intrusion up the river
system as follows:
a) Establish the degree of seawater intrusion that has occurred since the
operation of Kotri Barrage began and its current monthly pattern.
b) Determine the impact on ground water of seawater intrusion into the Indus
River and the consequent effect on wells used for irrigation and domestic
purposes.
(6) Establish the minimum quantum of fresh water below Kotri Barrage to check
seawater intrusion.
(7) Develop a recommended monitoring and evaluation program for each of the
alternate minimum flow scenarios. The program should include suitable
monitoring procedures, a network of monitoring stations and estimated
establishment and annual costs.
1.5.1. General
The Indus River outfall area is the downstream-most part of the entire Indus Basin
System, which includes a terminal opening into the Arabian Sea. The Kotri Barrage lies at
the head of the reach, which is about 270 km (168 miles) in length. In this river reach the
lateral outflows are nil except for the flood spills and evapo-transpiration-cum-valley
storage losses. Lateral inflows are also negligible except for those of the non-perennial
streams such as the Baran Nai during the monsoon period, the regenerated inflows during
low flows, and the direct precipitation on the main river channel. The entire reach is
embanked on both sides except for some lengths near the seashore and where the bank
topography overrules the necessity of a flood control embankment. The rivers and main
streams of the Indus Basin System downstream of Kotri are shown in Figure 3.
Most of the areas in the command of Kotri Barrage are extensively cultivated and
regularly irrigated. Pinyari Canal, Fuleli Canal and Lined Canal (Akkam Wah) offtake
from the left bank with a design discharge of 409 cms(m 3/sec) (14,000 cfs), 391 cms
(13,800 cfs) and 116 cms (4,100 cfs), respectively, whereas, the Kalri Baghar Feeder
Canal with a design discharge of 255 cms (9,000 cfs) runs almost parallel to the river
along the right bank. These four canals command areas along both the banks of the Indus
River.
A large part of population of Hyderabad, Badin and Thatta districts resides along both the
banks of Kotri-Sea Reach of Indus River and around the Indus Delta. A number of
important towns and villages like Latifabad, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan,
Mirpur Bathoro, Golarchi and Sujawal are situated along the left bank, whereas Thatta
and Mirpur Sakro are located on the right bank.
MWH-ACE-NESPAK JV 5 March 2005
Kotri (Study-I) Project Sea Water Intrusion Study
Inception Report
In order to save human life and dwellings, irrigation systems, agricultural land and
infrastructures, flood protection bunds have been constructed along both riverbanks of the
Indus River in the Project area. The construction and improvement of bunds started
sometimes in 1869 and continues today. The floods have been breaching these bunds
since the day of their construction. The first breach occurred in Uchito Bund in 1912.
After the super floods of 1970s, the bunds were raised and strengthened in order to
sustain the future floods. This process has provided protection against overtopping and
breaching of bunds to a great extent in the Project area. However, parallel flow, erosion
and meandering of the river pose a continuous threat to the safety of the flood protection
works. The areas near the Arabian Sea are also affected during high tide period when vast
areas get inundated and are subjected to saltwater intrusion.
Hyderabad district has an area of the order of 5,638 sq.km (2,177 sq.miles). According to
the current estimate, the population of the district is over 3.5 million. Thatta district
includes an area of about 17,355 sq.kms (6,700 sq.miles) with a population of about one
million. Badin district, comprising an area of about 6,560 sq.kms (2,534 sq.miles)
also has a population of over one million.
1.5.3. Kotri Barrage
Kotri Barrage was constructed on the Indus River near Hyderabad in 1955. The Barrage
was constructed to pass a maximum discharge of about 24,780 cms (875,000 cfs). In 1956
the flood peak passing through the barrage exceeded the design discharge capacity.
The Barrage is the source of irrigation water supply for an area of about 1.126 million
hectares (2.78 million acres). The pertinent data of the canals off-taking from the barrage
is given in Table 1. Most of the canal commanded area lies in the districts of Thatta,
Badin and Hyderabad.
The Kotri Barrage sluice gates are generally operated during the high flow season (July-
September). During this period, the river is often in flood and the flows in excess of the
Kotri Barrage Canal System are released downstream into the Kotri-Sea reach.
The Indus River divides into two branches i.e. the Ochito River and the Mutni River 20
km downstream of Karshah. The Mutni River is further subdivided into two creeks, i.e.
the Khobar and Khat creeks in the deltiac area. The bed level of the Mutni River is lower
than that of the Ochito River. As a consequence, the major part of flows passes through
the Mutni River, while the Ochito River is active during high flows in the Indus River.
Tidal delta is about 55 % of total delta and comprises all the lands that are inundated by
high tides in the Arabian Sea and get exposed at low tides. Its width varies from 8km (5
miles) and 40km (25 miles) and stretches from Karachi to Rann of Kutch.
Baran Nai
The Baran Nai orginates from the Khirther Range near Ghati at an elevation of about
1,067m (3,500 ft) amsl. Its outfall into the Indus River is located at about 20 km
downstream from the Kotri Barrage on the right bank.
The Nai drains a total catchment area of about 2,600 sq. kms (1,000 sq. miles). Flood
flows of the Nai occasionally cause damage to various infrastructures. The Baran Nai
flows have not been measured anywhere in its hilly catchments. No discharge record is
available at its ‘Darrah’ near Darwat. The Indus Super Highway, the Pakistan Railways
and the National Highway crossings are also not gauged. There is, however a gauge at the
F.B. Feeder Super Passage. The peak discharge data is available only for a few years
since 1976. The quality of Baran Nai flow is considered to be good and its mixing with
the flows below Kotri Barrage should generally improve the quality of water in the river.
Kinjhar Lake
Kinjhar Lake is an artificial water storage reservoir located in Thatta District. It came into
existence as a consequence of implementation of the Kotri Barrage Canal Irrigation
Project. This artificial reservoir has been formed out of natural depressions called
‘Sonehri’ and ‘Kinjhar’ Dhands (depressions) by closing the gape in the surrounding hills
with earthen embankments having an average height of about 7 meters (25 feet).
The lake is 32 km (20 miles) long and has a spread of 130 sq.km (50 sq.miles). The gross
storage capacity of the lake at its full conservation level (RL 54.00) is 0.52 million acre-
feet (MAF). Its minimum drawdown level is RL 42 and usable storage is 0.37 MAF.
The main feeding source of the lake is the Kalri Baghar Feeder Upper Canal which off-
takes from the Kotri Barrage. The primary function of the Lake is to provide domestic
and industrial water supplies to the Metropolitan City of Karachi. In addition, the Lake
also caters for the irrigation water requirements of 142,600 hectares (352,300 acres)
perennial and 120,000 hectares (252,000 acres) non-perennial in Thatta district. To meet
these needs, a Feeder Canal named K.B. Feeder Lower has been constructed. It off-takes
from the southern tip of the lake and its designed discharge capacity is about 200 cms
(7,000 cfs).
It is believed that seepage from the lake may have a significant influence on the
groundwater quality of the aquifer in the nearby area. It could also potentially affect the
Indus River water quality during the dry season when the river water surface elevation is
low.
1.5.7. Topography
The Kotri-Sea reach is a part of the Lower Indus Plain and an extension of the Khirther
Range Plateau. The plain area comprises alluvial deposits of the Indus River.
In Hyderabad district, there are no mountains or hills except some small hillocks, locally
known as Ganjo Takkar, meaning bald hillocks. They run parallel to the Indus for about
23 kms (14 miles) south of Hyderabad city. The highest point in these hillocks is Garho
about 75 meters(m) above mean sea level (msl). There are also two small hillocks on the
north of Tando Muhammad Khan town. They are named as Budhka Takkar. The rest of
the district is a fertile plain with an average elevation of about 50m above msl. There are
some good forest reserves in Hala Taluka along the Indus River.
In Thatta district, the northwestern hilly area, known as ‘Kohistan’ is an extension of the
Khirther Range. The rest of the district comprises the plain area which is divided into two
parts by the Indus River. The southern and the western area of the district is sandy and
affected by the sea, while the south-eastern portion adjoining the Rann of Katch is also
sandy with scattered human habitations. The extreme south is the coastal zone of the
Arabian Sea. There are several channels (dhoros) and depressions (dhands) some of
which retain water throughout the year.
Badin district is a part of the Lower Indus Plain, the southern part of which is close to the
delta of the Indus River and is relatively lower as compared to northern part of the plain
area. The northern part of the district is almost flat while the depressions called “dhoros’
and ‘dhands’ exist in the southern part, which are, perhaps, the remains of the old limits
of the Arabian Sea.
The Kotri-Sea Reach receives the surplus flows of the entire Indus Basin and all of it’s
major, small and minor tributaries. Total drainage area up to Kotri Barrage is about
848,700 square kilometers (372,700 sq. miles), starting form the Mansrowar Lake in
Himalayas up to it’s outfall into the Arabian Sea. The waters of the Indus are generated
from different hydrological sources having various meteorological environments and pass
through a number of geological formations encompassing different hydraulic conditions
with varying velocities. In the Indus Basin, the Indus is the source of life, backbone of the
economy, and manifestation of the glorious culture and marvelous history of the valley of
Mehran. Its hydrological cycles have, perhaps, been the most important factor affecting
the dwellers, their livelihood, culture and history.
In the past several decades generally higher peak discharges have been recorded. The
frequency of occurrence has also increased. This is evident from the frequency analyses
presented in various studies carried out by different agencies. The increase in flood peak
flows is due to new bunds in the upper reaches of the rivers which prevent spread of flood
water over the land and hence increase the peak river flow. The tendency for a peak flow
to increase may also be due to the rapid runoff in the upper catchments of the river
system, as a result of increased and unplanned deforestation and denudation of vegetation.
This process leads to higher peak flows and lower winter discharges.
Figure 4 shows the release during each 10-days period from 1976 to 2004 during the post-
Tarbela era.
Based upon the data collected and initial findings, meetings and discussions with several
governmental agencies, including effects of other ongoing projects, the project work plan
remains essentially the same after the issue of the TOR. The following sections discuss
the work plan to be implemented in order to achieve the project objectives identified
above. All activities in this study will culminate in the preparation of the reports,
including drawings, data collected, results generated to justify the findings, conclusions
and recommendations for the project.
The overall work task comprises of the following six major work activities as identified in
the TOR:
3.1. Objectives
To collect all available data, including maps, topographic data, satellite imageries,
reports, models and other information pertinent for the Study.
To carry out a field data collection program to supplement the data required for
the Study.
3.2. Description
Data collection activities started immediately after the commencement of the Project on
January 24, 2005. The Deputy Team Leader has the overall responsibility in data
collection. Each senior member of the JV was responsible for carrying out the data
collection activities for the required data pertinent to his task assignments.
In order to address the Project’s requirements, the following background data and
information were sought during the data collection mission.
Tides and Salinity Surveys of Khobar Creek by Naeem, Razzaq and Baquer,
National Institute of Oceanogeophy
Soil Salinity Survey of Kalri Canal Command Area, Soils and Reclamation
Directorate, SCARP Monitoring Organization WAPDA, Canal Bank Mughalpura,
Lahore, December 2004.
Soil Salinity Survey of Pinyari Canal Command Area, Soils and Reclamation
Directorate, SCARP Monitoring Organization WAPDA, Canal Bank Mughalpura,
Lahore, November 2004.
Topographical maps (G. T. Sheets) for Lower Indus River, Scale 1:250,000 &
1:50,000.
Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 90-meter grid topographic data from
USGS
Soil Salinity Survey, Irrigated Areas of Indus Basin, 41 Million acres, Survey and
Research Directorate, Planning Division, WAPDA, Lahore.
Water levels and water quality (salinity) of tubwells in the project areas.
Water quality (salinity) in Indus River downstream of Kotri Barrage for known
river flows.
River salinity profiles for various discharge scenarios below Kotri Barrage
Salinity profiles in Indus/estuaries, with depth and across the channels
Groundwater quality data since 1956 to 2004 for both pre and post Monsoon
Periods
Description Source
Records of flow releases below Kotri I & P Dept Sindh Government
Barrage
Records of stage data at ten gauge I & P Dept Sindh Government
stations downstream of Kotri Barrage
Daily tidal level in the estuary National Institute of Oceanogeophy and
Hydrographer Pakistan Navy
Indus River Channel Cross Section – 14 International Sedimentation Research
sections were collected Institute of Pakistan (ISRIP)
Topographic maps, 1:250,000 & Survey of Pakistan
1:50,000
Satellite Images of project site SUPARCO
SRTM * 90-meter grid topographic data NASA/USGS
covering project areas
Groundwater table contours during Rabi I & P Dept Sindh Government
season
Soil Salinity Survey of Kalri Canal Soil and Reclamation Directorate Scarp
Command Area and Pinyari Canal Monitoring Organization WAPDA Canal
Command Area Bank Mughalpura, Lahore - Dec. 2004
*The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) is a joint project between the National
Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) and the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA). On February 11th, 2000 the space shuttle Endeavor blasted into
space carrying a payload that would collect data defining the face of the earth we live on.
Its goal was to record the data necessary to create a 3-D topographic map of the world
that could be used by both the civilian and military sectors for scientific analysis and civic
planning.
The objective of this project was to produce digital topographic data for 80% of the
Earth's land surface (all land areas between 60º north and 56° south latitude), with data
points located every 3-arc-second (approximately 90 meters) on a latitude/longitude grid.
This radar system gathered data that generated the most accurate and complete
topographic map of the Earth's surface that has ever been assembled.
NESPAK, a partner of the JV, compared the SRTM data with the data obtained from the
ground survey for their on-going Indus River Flood Forecasting Study. The degree of
accuracy of the SRTM data was found to be acceptable for the objective of the study.
3.4. Subtask 1.2 – Review and Analysis of Collected Data and Information
The JV Team generally found the majority of the background data and information on the
Indus River from Kotri Barrage to the Sea to be available through various governmental
agencies or in JV partner offices. The following paragraphs provide a summary of the
key findings after a preliminary review and analysis of the data and information collected:
The records of flow releases below Kotri Barrage were quite complete and were
well documented.
The records of stage data at Chowgazo Guage, Garho Gauge, Aghimani guage and
other gauge stations were available and well documented.
The 14 sections of Indus River channel cross sectional data covered a river reach
of about 170 km downstream from Kotri Barrage. The cross sectional data for the
remaining 100 km of Indus River were not available possibly because of the
problems of accessibility of the site.
The SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) 90-meter grid topographic data
obtained from USGS/NASA will provide the primary topographic data required in
model development.
Tidal and salinity survey in the estuary carried out by Naeem, Razzaq and Baquer
prior to 1989 could be the only available data that could be used for water quality
model verification.
Specific periods of tidal data recorded by the Hydrographer Pakistan Navy will be
collected and used in the study.
Limited records of groundwater quality data in the project areas were available.
There was only one published paper with the results of salinity level in the river
downstream of Kotri Barrage for two flow conditions, a high flow and a zero
flow. This very limited information is considered not sufficient to establish a
plausible relationship between the freshwater release below Kotri Barrage and the
extent of seawater intrusion in the Indus River.
The critical data required for this study includes the following:
Salinity data in the river covering the extent of seawater intrusion with known
river discharges;
Salinity and water surface elevation in the river and in the aquifer to provide data
and information for the understanding of the interrelationship, if any, between the
quality of groundwater and the river channel water during the dry season.
To meet the critical data needs, a field data collection program will be implemented
during the early stage of the project. A field office has been setup in Hyderabad to
execute and coordinate the program. The field office manager is responsible for the data
collection activities supported by junior engineers assigned to the project.
Field data collection program will consist of the following five survey activities:
Locations:
The locations of the river cross sections to be surveyed will be determined after the
review of SRTM data.
3.6.2. Survey B --Salinity and Water Surface Elevation Survey in River (when no
flow is released below Kotri Barrage)
Objectives:
To provide data for model verification.
Activity:
Perform the river water salinity measurements at 10 sections along the river
channel starting from the upstream section and moving to downstream sections.
Take 3 measurements at each section, one at the bottom, second at the mid-depth
and the third one at the surface. Record the measurements and the x and y
coordinates.
Record the water surface elevations at sections with stage gauge benchmark.
Repeat the above measurements once a week for two months if the flow below
remains zero.
3.6.3. Survey C -- Salinity and Water Surface Elevation Survey in River (When Flow
is being released below Kotri)
Objective:
To provide data for model verification
Activity:
The Consultant will consult the Irrigation Department regarding their schedule of
flow release below Kotri and plan the survey accordingly.
Three to five sections located in the lower reaches south of Karshah will be
selected for survey. A stage gauge shall be installed at each section.
Two days after the start of flow release, carry out the survey starting from the
most downstream section.
Take measurements every 30 minutes, 2 hours before and after the high tide at
three different depths.
Take measurements every 30 minutes, 2 hours before and after the low tide at
three different depths.
Record the water surface elevation during each 30 minutes interval when the
salinity is measured.
3.6.4. Survey D – Salinity and Groundwater Table Elevation Survey in Auger Holes
and/or Existing Piezometers
Objective:
To provide data for building a relationship between seawater intrusion and the
groundwater contaminations.
Activity:
It is planned that about five to ten holes will be selected preferably in the lower reach
below Thatta on either side of the riverbank. Salinity and groundwater table depth
observations will be made once a week during the period of Survey B and C.
Activity:
Water samples will be collected once every month from some representative sites in the
river for detailed analysis for EC, TDS, pH, cations and anions to identify if the sea water
is the source of salt water in the river.
In addition, shallow and deep groundwater samples will be collected from the existing
piezometers of the SCARP Monitoring Organization (SMO) for detailed analysis for EC,
TDS, pH, cations and anions to identify if the sea water is the source of salt water in the
aquifers.
4.1. Objective:
Analyze collected data to establish the relationship, if any, between the quantities
of fresh water released below Kotri Barrage (Q) and the effect of seawater
intrusion in the Indus River.
Analyze collected data to establish the relationship, if any, between the quantities
of fresh water released below Kotri Barrage (Q) and the effect of seawater
intrusion on the groundwater.
4.2. Description:
Subtask 2.2 – Collect and Analyze Data of Salinity Surveys in the Indus River
Subtask 2.3 – Collect and Analyze Data of Salinity Surveys in the Aquifers
4.2.2. Subtask 2.2 – Collect and Analyze Data of Salinity Surveys in the Indus River
In order to establish a relationship between the freshwater release below Kotri Barrage
and the effect of seawater intrusion on Indus River water, salinity data in the river
downstream of Kotri Barrage will be required.
There were only a few cases of salinity measurements in the Indus River. The University
of Sindh at Jamshoro, Sindh and other agencies have carried out some studies on the river
water quality below Kotri Barrage. The objectives of these studies were to observe the
variation of salinity status as well as the relationship between the fresh water release and
the salt water intrusion at low and high flow conditions of the Indus River. These four
observations were taken on March 26th to April 2nd of April 1997, April 27th of 1997, July
27th of 1997 and April 23rd of 2000. The results of these measurements have been
collected. Additional salinity data will be provided from Survey C discussed in Field
Data Collection Program.
Results from the existing and survey data will be presented in graphs to illustrate the
relationship between the freshwater release below Kotri Barrage and the effect of
seawater intrusion on Indus River water.
4.2.3. Subtask 2.3 – Collect and Analyze Data of Salinity Surveys in the Aquifers
There is no existing data and information available from previous studies with the
objective to establish the relationship between the quantities of fresh water released below
Kotri Barrage and the effect of seawater intrusion to the groundwater. Subtask 2.3 will be
undertaken under Subtask 4.2 which has a broader objective encompassing the objective
of Subtask 2.3. Results from Field Data Collection Program will also provide some
important information for the establishment of a relationship between the quantities of
fresh water released below Kotri Barrage and the effect of seawater intrusion on the
groundwater.
5.1. Objective
To develop a computer model which can be used to simulate the flow pattern and
saline intrusion under the past and future flow conditions
Utilize the computer model to facilitate the assessment of the impact of seawater
intrusion on water quality in the river channel.
5.2. Description
Two computer models need to be developed and utilized to achieve the objectives of
Task3. These two models are RMA2 and RMA4. Detailed discussions of the
development, verification and simulation of the two models are presented in the following
sections.
5.3.1. Instruction
RMA2 is a two-dimensional depth averaged finite element hydrodynamic numerical
model developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers. RMA2 model will be used to:
As shown in Figure 5, part of the upstream region of the river is considered non-essential
for water quality modeling and will not be included in RMA2. The upper limit of the
tidal effect along the river reach will be determined first through a careful evaluation of
tidal records, stage records at various gauge stations below Kotri, and the record of flow
release below Kotri Barrage. The upper limit of the model domain will then be selected
conservatively above this tidal limit.
SMS is a powerful graphical tool for model creation and visualization of results. Models
can be built using digital maps and elevation models for reference and source data.
During the model building process, the graphical representation of the model allows
quick review and presentation of the work.
In view of the complexity and a large number of elements expected in RMA2 model for
this study, the conceptual approach, the most efficient approach for building realistic,
complex models, will be utilized. With this approach, a conceptual model is created
using GIS point objects. The conceptual model is constructed independently of a mesh or
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Inception Report
Use good quality GIS background maps with geometric features such as channels
and banks, and the boundary of the model domain clearly identifiable, see Figure
6.
Create GIS point objects as element nodes on the background maps, see Figure 7.
After nodes have been created, background maps may be hidden from the screen,
see Figure 8.
Delete outer and thin triangles, and merge triangles, see Figure 10. Quadrilateral
elements are preferred when using RMA2 and RMA4.
Figure 10 – Final Grid Configuration after Deleting Outer and Thin Triangles, Merging
Triangles
Ground Elevation
The finite element mesh generated from the feature objects defines only the X- and Y-
coordinates for the nodes. To get the bathymetric information, survey data saved as
scatter points can be interpolated onto the finite element mesh. Scatter points are used to
interpolate bathymetric (or other) data onto a finite element mesh. This interpolation can
be set up to automatically take place during the meshing process. The scattered data is
triangulated when it is read into SMS and an interpolated value is assigned to each node
in the mesh. The Map Elevations option causes the newly interpolated value to be used as
the nodal Z-coordinate.
As with the feature objects, the scattered data will no longer be needed and may be
hidden or deleted.
SRTM
SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) 90-meter grid topographic data will be used
and interpolated onto the finite mesh to provide the nodal Z-coordinate.
Multi-Step Process
Due to the complexity and sophistication of the model, and that all field data are
potentially in some degree of error, the conventional one step process – adjustments made
to model coefficients and input so as to optimize agreement between model and observed
prototype data during the calibration step – is inadequate. Verification of the RMA2
model requires a multi-step process of model adjustments and comparisons, coupled with
careful consideration of both the model and the data. Figure 12 illustrates the approximate
relative importance to the simulation of the different aspects of an RMA2 verification. It
shows that the structure of the geometry and overall study design are the most significant,
followed by the boundary condition assignments. Therefore, during the verification
process, various aspects of the model will be checked for abnormal or instability
situations.
Observed Data
The observed data will consist of the flow records at Kotri Barrage and the stage records
at various gauge stations downstream of Kotri Barrage. These observed stage and flow
records will be carefully screened and evaluated to identify the low to moderate flow
conditions, which had been steady for over a period of several days. A minimum of three
steady flow conditions will be used for verification.
Discharge rating curves will be developed at five selected gauge stations downstream of
Kotri Barrage. Assessment of the records of daily flow release below Kotri will be made
to identify these constant (or near constant) flow releases with duration of no less than 5
days. In the study conducted by the University of Sindh, Jamshoro, it was reported that
that at a discharge of about 69,000 cfs, the entire river downstream of Kotri contained
freshwater. As the focus of the study is on seawater intrusion into the river, discharges
selected for the development of discharge rating curves at the gauge stations shall be in
the range from about 5,000 cfs to 80,000 cfs.
The daily stage records at the five gauge stations downstream of Kotri will provide the
information of the water surface elevations required for the development of discharge
rating curves at the gauge stations.
The model verification will be carried out for the three freshwater releases of 8,050 cfs
(228 m3/s), 19,630 cfs (556 m3/s) and 62,250 cfs (1,763 m3/s) observed by Naeem et al in
1995. If suitable flow releases can be arranged with the Irrigation Department during this
dry season, flow and stage data recorded in Survey C by the Irrigation Department will
also be utilized for model verification.
5.4.1. Introudction
RMA4 is a finite element water quality transport numerical model in which the depth
concentration distribution is assumed uniform. The model utilizes a hydrodynamics
solution from RMA2 which has been obtained from the exact same geometry to be used
for RMA4.
Develop a relationship which relates the location of the saltwater front in the
Indus River to the rate of release below Kotri Barrage.
The model verification for RMA4 will be carried out for the three freshwater releases of
8,050 cfs (228 m3/s), 19,630 cfs (556 m3/s) and 62,250 cfs (1,763 m3/s) observed by
Naeem et al in 1995. It is imperative to have the RMA2 and RMA4 simulations
mimicking the same event that was present in the field during the data collection period.
If suitable flow releases can be arranged with the Irrigation Department during this dry
season, salinity data to be obtained in Survey C will also be utilized for model
verification.
Objective:
To establish the degree of seawater intrusion that has occurred since the operation
of Kotri Barrage.
Determine the impact on groundwater due to seawater intrusion into the Indus
River and the consequent effect on wells used for irrigation and domestic
purposes.
Description:
This work activity comprises of the following five subtasks:
Subtask 4.1 – Model Simulations of Pre- and Post-Kotri Barrage Flow Releases
6.1. Subtask 4.1 – Model Simulations of Pre- and Post-Kotri Barrage Flow
Releases
There is essentially no seawater intrusion records or measurements that are adequate for
the establishment of the degree of seawater intrusion in the Indus River before and after
the operation of Kotri Barrage. The only means to establish the degree of seawater
intrusion after the commencement of Kotri Barrage is through computer modeling.
Seawater intrusion is a dynamic and complex phenomenon with the quantity of release
below Kotri Barrage and the tidal fluctuations at the Arabian Sea as the two dominant
factors affecting its pattern and formation. As the tidal fluctuation is a natural occurrence
and not subject to any means of control, the quantity of flow releases below Kotri Barrage
is the only overriding factor that will affect the seawater intrusion.
The releases during each 10-day period for the pre- and post-Kotri Barrage years will be
collected and compared. The focus of the comparison will be on the dry season when the
flow releases were low and the seawater intrusion prevailed. The mean releases during
the dry season for the pre- and post-Kotri Barrage years will be calculated and seawater
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Kotri (Study-I) Project Sea Water Intrusion Study
Inception Report
intrusion simulations will be carried out for these two flow releases. The results will
provide some indications on the overall impact of the operation of Kotri Barrage on the
seawater intrusion in the Indus River.
The record of flow releases below Kotri Barrage for post Tarbela period will be used to
establish the current monthly pattern of seawater intrusion. A series of simulations with
flows covering the recorded discharges during the dry season will be carried out. The
results will show the movement of the saltwater front in response to the monthly
variations of discharge below Kotri Barrage.
Seawater intrusion affects the quality of surface water and groundwater. Seawater salinity
in the vicinity of the shoreline is around 35,000 parts per million (ppm) and has more than
20,000 ppm of sodium chloride (NaCl2). The water quality below Kotri ranges from 200
ppm during high flows to about 800 ppm during low flows. Quality of groundwater was
highly saline with the exception of the area in close vicinity to the river before the
commissioning of Kotri Barrage in 1956. Latest groundwater quality data for the project
area indicates that in shallow zones (0-12m) groundwater quality has improved in a large
part of canal command areas on both banks of Kotri-Sea reach. However, the
groundwater in deeper zones is still highly saline.
In order to identify the landward extent of seawater intrusion that may contaminate the
groundwater, a detailed chemical analysis of both surface water and groundwater will be
carried out. The chloride anion content will indicate the extent of landward intrusion of
seawater.
Seawater intrusion interacts with river water through dispersion/diffusion while its
infiltration into the aquifer adversely affects the quality of groundwater. It has also been
observed that a canal system widely spreadout in the area with a concurrent drainage
system may improve the groundwater quality. Evaporation losses from surface water
ponds/lakes and evaporation from shallow groundwater through capillary fringe increases
the salinity of groundwater. Thus, the interaction of seawater intrusion on the quality of
groundwater is highly complex and factors contributing to increases/decreases in salinity
are interlinked. In order to study the impact of seawater intrusion on groundwater quality,
various contributing factors would have to be considered. The results will assist in the
evaluation on the consequent impact on irrigation/domestic wells.
Water quality maps prepared by the Lower Indus Project (LIP) Consultants, Water and
Soil Investigation Division (WASID), Central Monitoring Organization (CMO), SCARP
Monitoring organization (SMO) and the latest soil and water quality surveys carried out
by WAPDA for each canal command will be analyzed. Efforts will be made to evaluate
various zones of water quality in the project areas with different time frames. An analysis
of water quality temporal changes in the project area will provide the information
required for the evaluation of the impact of seawater intrusion on groundwater quality.
Several commonly used structural barriers will be considered for controlling seawater
intrusion. These barriers include submerged weirs, barrages and tide gates. The use of
measures depends on many factors such as:
6.3.2. Barrage
Barrages with control gates can eliminate the potential seawater intrusion. Control gates
will generally be opened during the wet season for passing flood flows and closed during
the dry season to keep saltwater from moving upstream. The operation of the control
gates need not be automatic.
6.3.4. Comparison
A comparison of the above three types of barriers will be made based on the comparative
potential costs, operation and maintenance, effect on flood flows during the wet season,
upstream channel sedimentation, etc.
A second curve will be developed with the same flow conditions except that a fixed low
tide will be used as the boundary condition at the sea.
The above two curves provide the upper and lower ranges of flow release required below
Kotri to check seawater intrusion. Based on the upper and lower limits of releases, a
variable flow condition will be developed as the dynamic upstream boundary condition
for RMA2 and RMA4 models. In this simulation, a tidal fluctuation will be used as the
dynamic stage boundary condition at the sea. Several modifications and adjustments in
the dynamic upstream flow condition will be required in order to obtain a satisfactory
result.
The approximate time for the released flow to travel from Kotri to the location of the
upstream section of the model will be estimated. This travel time needs to be
incorporated into the flow release operation at Kotri Barrage.
This No Control condition has been in existence for many years with some degree of
variations in flow release year to year. A typical No Control condition may be better
represented by the average flow release over a long period of time as the curve shown in
Figure 4.
The No Control option is a base case that lets nature take its course by abandoning any
mitigation investment. Under this scenario there could be a continued increase in
salinised land, with a reduction in agricultural production and deterioration in
groundwater quality to a level not suitable for irrigation and domestic uses.
6.5.2. Approach
The steps to be carried out to estimate the costs of “No Control” are outlined as follows:
Determine the likely salinazation scenarios under this base case of “Do-Nothing”
option and under the minimum required freshwater release option resulting in a
degree of mitigation.
Determine the difference in quantity of water for the two options. As shown in
Figure 14, this quantity of freshwater is the area marked in yellow, the difference
between the quantity of water available for release and the quantity of the required
water for checking seawater intrusion. Figure 14 was developed from Figure 4
with a focus in low discharges.
Assess the impacts on irrigation and domestic uses under each option. It is noted
that there would be impacts on environment and ecosystem for both options.
However, the environmental impacts are beyond the scope of Study-I and will not
be considered in the assessment.
Using market prices for tangible inputs and outputs such as agricultural
productions, irrigation water and potable water supply.
Objective:
To identify the minimum rate of flow release below Kotri throughout the year that will
keep the saltwater intrusion to an acceptable degree.
Description:
This work activity comprises of the following two subtasks:
Subtask 5.1 – Relationship between Flow Release and Degree of Seawater Intrusion
The relationship to be used to define the minimum required fresh water release is the
same as the one developed in Subtask 4.4 with the high tide as the downstream boundary
condition.
Drinking Water Standard upper limit of 750 ppm (WHO upper limit) in TDS will be
selected as a measurement of impairment of water, and subsequently as the basis for
determining the seawater intrusion front. The freshwater in the Indus River typically
displays a TDS concentration of about 250 ppm, thus the use of a 750 ppm value to define
the seawater front will prove to be useful and convenient.
The relationship developed between the flow release and the location of the saltwater
front does not answer the important issue of where the saltwater front shall be located and
what is the corresponding flow release. The results of “Cost of Do-Nothing” discussed in
Task 4 will provide an indication of the preferable location of the saltwater front.
However, this preferable location will be selected based on a somewhat narrow view of
the issue. It will take only the cost of water and the impact on irrigation and domestic
water uses into consideration. The effect on the environment and ecosystem will not be
considered.
The computer model and the relationship developed will provide a convenient tool to
determine how much freshwater shall be released to check seawater intrusion to some
extent. The acceptable degree of seawater intrusion shall be decided based on the results
of all three studies by the government agencies and all stakeholders. This decision is
beyond the scope of Study-I.
8.1. Objective
8.2. Description
The Consultants will review the current SMO monitoring program and devise a program
most suitable for the need of this study. Efforts will be made to incorporate the existing
SMO program as much as possible to result in an efficient and cost-effective scheme.
Some of the existing wells can be selected and recommended for water quality
measurement. These sites could also be connected with the national datum to record water
levels. Using the water level records, water table contour map can be prepared to monitor
groundwater movement under various sets of hydro climatic environments; i.e. dry and
wet conditions. Conductivity probes may also be used to determine water quality in the
piezometers and wells. It will, thus, be possible to determine groundwater movement and
quality and its temporal and spatial variations. Increase in the contents of chloride
contents of groundwater will assist in the determination of the extent of seawater
intrusion. Other methods, such as the geophysical techniques (electrical resistivity) will
also be evaluated for suitable application to detect and map the salt water interface to
determine the extent of the impact of seawater intrusion.
alternative. However, in general, the river water quality below Kotri will be monitored
under the following conditions:
Water samples taken at about ten sites at various depths in the river from Kotri to
the Arabian Sea.
9. PROJECT SCHEDULE
To complement the detailed work plan presented in previous sections of this Inception
Report, a master schedule has been developed. The master project schedule is presented
in Exhibit 1.
The schedule includes both the major work tasks as well as the numerous subtasks
described throughout the work plan. It also shows the:
In looking at the preliminary project schedule, several key milestones become evident.
The major project milestones are summarized below in Table 3.
There will be several points where input will be required from the Ministry. The first one
is associated with the assistance in the collection of pertinent data, such as GT sheets,
records of discharge downstream of Kotri, water quality data in project area, records of
stages at gauge stations, etc. While this will be an on-going activity, it will be important
that the Consultant’s request for data and information be approved promptly without
causing undue delay.
The second area of the Ministry’s input will come when the various draft documents are
submitted to the Ministry for their review, comments and approval. Based on the
Contract Agreements and the master project schedule presented above, the projected
dates when the documents will be submitted to the Ministry are summarized in Table 4.
For all submittals, a maximum of fourteen-day period has been allotted for review and
comments by the Ministry. In order to be able to complete the task according to the
schedule, if no comments are received within the allotted timeframe, it will be assumed
that the documents is approved as originally submitted. The work required to implement
comments received beyond the timeframe shall be regarded as Additional Services and
the Ministry shall extend the time for completion of the services accordingly.
The staffing plan for the execution of the project was originally presented in the Contract.
Based on the updated Project Schedule presented in previous section, the Joint Venture’s
staffing plan has been updated. The updated staffing plan is presented in Exhibit 2. The
plan reflects the modified needs to achieve the project objectives.
The proposed table of contents for the final report of this study is included in the
following pages. Modifications to the contents will be made as needed.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(Tentative)
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
S1 Project Background
S2 Project Objectives
S3 Project Area
S4 Data Collection and Analysis
S5 Field Data Collection
S6 Computer Modeling
S7 Mitigation of Seawater Intrusion
S8 Conclusions
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
1.1 Scope of Works
1.2 Project Areas
1.2.1 Indus River
1.2.2 Kotri Barrage
1.2.3 Gauge Stations
1.2.4 Drainage Basins
1.2.5 Tributaries
1.2.6 Lower Sindh Plain and Indus Delta
CHAPTER 2 – DATA COLLECTION AND EVALUATION
2.1 Geographic Data
2.2 Flow and Stage Data
2.3 Indus River Salinity Data
2.4 Soil and Groundwater Data
2.5 Reports and Publications
2.6 Critical Data Needs
2.7 Fresh Water Escapages and Seawater Intrusion
Effect on Surface Water
2.8 Fresh Water Escapages and Seawater Intrusion
Effect on Groundwater
CHAPTER 3 – FIELD DATA COLLECTION PROGRAM
3.1 River Cross Section Survey
3.2 River Water Quality and Water Table Elevation Surveys
3.3 Groundwater Quality and Groundwater Table Elevation Surveys
CHAPTER 4 – Development and Simulation of Computer Models
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model RMA2
4.2.1 Development of RMA2
4.2.2 Verification of RMA2
4.2.3 Simulation of RMA2