You are on page 1of 12

Available online at www.sciencedirect.

com
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect
ScienceDirect
Transportation
Available Research
online Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000
at www.sciencedirect.com
Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
ScienceDirect
Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

World Conference on Transport Research - WCTR 2016 Shanghai. 10-15 July 2016
World Conference on Transport Research - WCTR 2016 Shanghai. 10-15 July 2016
Benchmarking of Personal Rapid Transit System (Dynamic
Benchmarking of Personal Rapid Transit System (Dynamic
Model)
Model)
Pradip Kumar Sarkar a,*
a,*
, Udit Jain bb
Pradip Kumar Sarkar , Udit Jain
a
Professor, Dept. of Transport Planning, School of Planning & Architecture, New Delhi-110002, India
b a
Professor,
Research Scholar,Dept.
Dept.ofofTransport Planning, Indian
Civil Engineering, School Institute
of Planning & Architecture,
of Technology NewUttarakhand-247667,
Roorkee, Delhi-110002, India India
b
Research Scholar, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Uttarakhand-247667, India

Abstract
Abstract
PRT is an efficient rapid transit system which provides the last mile connectivity to the users with a high level of reliability and
PRT is
comfort. an efficient
There rapid
is absence oftransit system
existing which provides
benchmarks for PRTthe last mile
in both Indiaconnectivity
and abroad.toDwarka,
the usersNew
withDelhi,
a highinlevel
Indiaofhas
reliability and
been taken
comfort.
as the caseThere
studyisarea
absence of existing
for carrying out benchmarks
the feasibilityforstudy
PRTofinPRT.
both Primary
India andandabroad. Dwarka,
secondary dataNew Delhi,
has been in Indiafor
collected hasthe
been taken
planning
as
of the
PRT. case
Thestudy
basearea
yearfor carrying
trips outmodel
and logit the feasibility studybeen
outputs have of PRT.usedPrimary
for the and secondary
travel data has been collected for the planning
demand estimation.
of PRT. The base year trips and logit model outputs have been used for the travel demand estimation.
Different international and Indian case studies have been reviewed to understand the operations and costs associated with PRT
Different
systems. international
A detailed andanalysis
financial Indian case studies
has been have out
carried beenforreviewed to understand
the formulation the operations
of benchmarks. The and costsresults
analysis associated with from
obtained PRT
systems.
the dynamicA detailed
model canfinancial analysis
be used has been
to predict variouscarried out for including
parameters the formulation of year
the base benchmarks.
trips for aThe analysisfare
specified results obtained
to achieve from
internal
the
ratedynamic
of returnmodel
(IRR) can be used
of 18%, to predict
which variousasparameters
is considered the optimum including
IRR forthe base year
investing in atrips for a specified fare to achieve internal
project.
rate of return (IRR) of 18%, which is considered as the optimum IRR for investing in a project.
This dynamic model for benchmarking of PRT systems has been developed using Visual Basic scripting overlay on a standard
This dynamic
financial model for
analysis model. Thebenchmarking
Model works of onPRT systems
the inputs of has been developed
Demand, Operational using
and Visual
FinancialBasic scripting Each
Parameters. overlay on aseventeen
of the standard
financial analysis
input factors can bemodel. The using
tweaked Modelslider
worksbarson the inputs
in the of Demand,
model to see how Operational
a change inandany
Financial Parameters.
of the variables willEach of the
impact theseventeen
financial
input factors
feasibility of can be tweaked
the project. The using
Modelslider bars validated
has been in the model to the
using see data
how ona change in anyfor
PRT studies of Amritsar
the variables
and will impact the
Trivandrum. Thefinancial
Model
feasibility
can be usedoftothe project.
justify the The Model has
development of been
PRT validated using
in any other citythein data
India.onThe
PRT studies
Model for Amritsar
works and Trivandrum.
on the inputs The Model
of Demand, Operational
can
and be used toParameters.
Financial justify the development of PRT in any other city in India. The Model works on the inputs of Demand, Operational
and Financial Parameters.
©© 2017
2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published byby Elsevier
Elsevier B.V.
B.V.
© 2017 The under
Peer-review Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Peer-review under responsibility
responsibility of
of WORLD
WORLD CONFERENCE
CONFERENCE ON ON TRANSPORT
TRANSPORT RESEARCHRESEARCH SOCIETY.SOCIETY.
Peer-review under responsibility of WORLD CONFERENCE ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH SOCIETY.
Keywords: Personal Rapid Transit; PRT; Financial Feasibility; Operations; Sensitivity Analysis; Dynamic Model; Benchmarking;
Keywords: Personal Rapid Transit; PRT; Financial Feasibility; Operations; Sensitivity Analysis; Dynamic Model; Benchmarking;

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +91-981-046-9985.


* E-mail
Corresponding
address:author. Tel.: +91-981-046-9985.
pradipsark@gmail.com
E-mail address: pradipsark@gmail.com
2214-241X © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
2214-241X
Peer-review© 2017responsibility
under The Authors.of Published
WORLDby Elsevier B.V. ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH SOCIETY.
CONFERENCE
Peer-review under responsibility of WORLD CONFERENCE ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH SOCIETY.

2352-1465 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.


Peer-review under responsibility of WORLD CONFERENCE ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH SOCIETY.
10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.370
4208 Pradip Kumar Sarkar et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218
2 Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

1. Introduction

Personal Rapid Transit or PRT is a contemporary form of public transport. It provides a taxi-like demand
responsive services for individuals or small groups of travellers (Anderson, 1978 and EDICT Final Report, 2004). It
has small automated electric ‘podcars’ which are usually two, four or six passenger vehicles that run on a segregated
guide way. PRT is gaining popularity around the world for its uninterrupted (Anderson, 2009), efficient and
sustainable journey between origin and destination (Gilbert and Anthony, 2006). It is a lightweight system and it incurs
lesser capital cost as compared to other public transport systems (Gilbert and Anthony, 2006). PRT stations are off
line stations that ensure non-stop point to point service.

PRT can be introduced in a city or an area in various forms. It works most efficiently in a system of small loops.
These loops may be around a mass transit line and PRT may act as a feeder to the mass transit. A feeder system not
only provides easy access to the transit users but also induces latent demand to the transit. There have been several
studies on integration of feeder modes like bicycle to the transit systems (Castro et al., 2013). PRT can be integrated
with the transit directly at the platform level which is not possible with any other mode. PRT can also work as a
standalone network to serve the demand in a particular area (Vibhuti, 2009). The stations of a PRT system are usually
closely spaced to provide high level of accessibility. It is commonly marketed as a comfortable mode which provides
the last mile connectivity to the user with negligible waiting time.

A PRT system is generally conceived as a feeder mode and is not compared to the conventional transit services.
Due to absence of any large scale PRT systems in the world, it is difficult for people to imagine a large scale or a city-
wide PRT network. Theoretically, in a comparison of line capacity of PRT and other transit modes, PRT has a much
higher Passenger-km-per-hour-per-direction (PkmPhPd) capacity (Vibhuti, 2008). Also, the capital cost of
constructing a transit service like MRTS is three to five times the capital cost required to build the same length of a
PRT system. So, PRT appears to be beneficial in terms of cost as well as capacity, but a large scale implementation
of PRT is yet to be seen by the world.

PRT is slowly getting popularity and planning of PRT has started in India. Feasibility studies and detailed project
reports have been prepared for PRT systems in Amritsar, Gurgaon and Trivandrum. Some of the critical issues faced
while planning a PRT system are travel demand estimation and financial analysis. It is also necessary to develop
benchmarks to understand how each of the factors affecting travel demand, operations or financial analysis will have
an overall impact on the project. In this study, travel demand assessment has been carried out for the selected case
study area. The travel demand has been used to work out the PRT operations and the number of pod cars required to
meet the travel demand. Based on the operations and other parameters, a detailed financial analysis has been carried
out to assess the viability of the project.

Based on these analysis, a dynamic model has been developed which has been used to develop benchmarks for
PRT. The model also assesses the impact of each of the factors used in the analysis, on the operational and financial
feasibility of a PRT network. The dynamic model can be used as a quick decision making tool for planning and
assessing the viability of a PRT project.

2. Experiences of PRT Systems around the World

The concept of PRT was introduced in 1953 by Don Fichter who conducted a research on alternative transportation
methods (Anderson, 1996). An operational PRT system was first introduced in 1975 in West Virginia University in
Morgantown, USA (Anderson, 1996). It connects three campuses of West Virginia University. It is also known as
Automated Group Rapid Transit system. There is some disagreement whether Morgantown system is a true PRT
system or not. This is because it has a capacity to hold 21 person (8 seated & rest standing), which is large in
comparison to most PRT concepts. It is also known as Morgantown People mover (MPM). The total length of this
system is 13.2 km.

PRT got real momentum only after 2011 when PRT operations began at Heathrow Airport Terminal 5. Since then
the world has realized the potentials of PRT system and it is now being considered for public transport planning studies
Pradip Kumar Sarkar et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218 4209
Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 3

in various cities around the world. As of 2014, only two modern PRT systems are operational worldwide. Since 2010
a 13-vehicle 2getthere system at Masdar City, UAE, and since 2011 a 21-vehicle Ultra PRT system at London
Heathrow Airport has been operational (DPR, 2009). The route length of the first phase of Masdar PRT and Heathrow
PRT is 1.5 km and 3.8 km long respectively.

In April 2013 a 5.3 km long 40-vehicle Vectus system was expected to open in Suncheon, South Korea but has
now been delayed. However, Suncheon bay PRT had started its first test trails in April 2013 (Sarkar et al., 2012).
Additional systems have been announced at London Heathrow Airport and Amritsar, India (DPR, 2009). Numerous
other PRT systems have been proposed but not implemented, including many substantially larger than those now
operating (Muller, 2009).

3. Study Area – Dwarka, New Delhi, India

Dwarka Sub City is situated in South West Delhi part of National Capital Territory of Delhi. Dwarka was divided
into 29 sectors when it was planned by the Delhi Development Authority (DDA). It has a total population of 11 Lakhs
(1.1 Million) in these 29 sectors. Dwarka is well connected to various other areas of Delhi by the city bus routes and
Delhi Metro Blue Line. The majority of residents of Dwarka belong to the Middle Income Group (MIG) and High
Income Group (HIG) category. There are well established authorized commercial areas which attract recreational and
shopping trips. There are large universities campuses like Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University (GGSIPU) and
Netaji Subhash Institute of Technology (NSIT) which attract education and work trips every day (Refer Figure 1).

PRT has been planned in the case study area to cater to the “Intra Dwarka Trips” which are the trips contained
within Dwarka sub city. Intra Dwarka Trips consist of access dispersal trips to the bus stops and metro stations,
shopping trips, recreational trips and educational trips within Dwarka. The study area sectors have been presented on
the map of Dwarka in Figure 1.
4210 Pradip Kumar Sarkar et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218
4 Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

Figure 1: Study area sectors in Dwarka

4. Travel Demand Assessment

Primary and secondary data has been collected for the demand assessment of Intra Dwarka trips and development
of a PRT system in Dwarka. Primary data has been collected through household (socio-economic and trip diary)
surveys and establishment surveys conducted in Sector - 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 21, and 22 (Total 15
sectors) of Dwarka. Household socio economic and trip information has been collected from the residential areas and
the similar information has been collected from the commercial and institutional areas in the establishment survey.
During the surveys, a total of 611 individuals were surveyed in 150 household and 160 employees were surveyed in
45 establishments across all the selected sectors. Willingness to shift (WTS) and willingness to pay (WTP) surveys
have been conducted during both household and establishment surveys using stated preference technique. Estimation
of Base Year Trips

4.1. Estimation of Trips Shifting to PRT

The primary data collected has been used to calculate the base year trips in the study area. The data from the
willingness to shift and willingness to pay surveys has been used to calculate the percentage of trips that will shift to
PRT. Binary logit model has been used to calculate the percentage shift to PRT from each of the existing mode in
Dwarka. The percentage shift to PRT is the estimated travel demand on the PRT system. The utility functions, base
year trips, percentage shift to PRT from each mode and estimated travel demand have been shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Estimation of Travel Demand


Pradip Kumar Sarkar et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218 4211
Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 5

Shift to Base Year Travel Demand


Trip Mode Utility Function
PRT Trips per Day per Day
Car µk = 0.22 X1 + 0.41 X2 - 12.416 38.8 % 250,891 97,340
Two Wheeler µk = 1.13 X1 + 0.28 X2 - 16.23 17.2 % 100,852 17,381
Cycle Rickshaw µk = 0.206 X1 + 0.22 X2 – 8.05 69.5 % 108,511 75,387
Cycle - 0.0 % 8,945 0
Walk µk = 1.42 X1 + 0.41 X2 - 15.79 23.4 % 138,296 32,358
TOTAL 607,496 222,465

Here, X1 and X2 are variables Travel Cost and Travel Time respectively. In case of Walk Trips the variable X1 is
Travel Distance and X2 is Travel Time. Out of the total 607,496 Trips per day, there is 36.6% overall shift expected
to PRT at the base fare of INR 10/km. The estimated travel demand for PRT in Dwarka is 222,465 trips/day. The
utility function for cycle trips has not been developed because it was observed during the data collection that none of
the bicycle users were willing to shift to PRT. Transit buses have been neglected in the analysis because as per the
analyzed data, buses were contributing to only 0.02% of the total trips that were contained within the case study area.

4.2. Proposed PRT Route

A PRT route network of 18 km length has been proposed in the case study area to meet the estimated travel demand.
The network has been designed to provide the high level of accessibility and the last mile connectivity to the users.
The maximum walking distance has been taken as 250 meters while designing the PRT network.

The network has been made in small loops running parallel to the Blue Line of Delhi Metro. The network connects
all the major metro stations, residential areas, commercial areas and the institutional areas in the study area. The
proposed route network has been shown in Figure 2.
4212 Pradip Kumar Sarkar et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218
6 Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

Figure 1: Proposed PRT route in Dwarka

5. PRT Operations and Capacity

The PRT supply capacity has been designed to serve the peak hour demand. The peak hour factor has been found
to be 9.5% of the total traffic from the classified traffic volume count of Dwarka sub city. Based on the peak hour
factor, the peak hour demand on PRT will be 21,165 trips per hour.

The PRT operational characteristics have been taken according to the Ultra PRT Pod Car System (DPR, 2009).
The operational characteristics taken for Dwarka are as follows:

1. Distance Headway = 80 metres


2. Speed of PRT = 30 kmph (8.33 m/s)
3. No. of Passengers = 4 per Pod
4. Average Trip Length = 1.6 km (From Primary Survey)
5. Route Length = 18 km

The number of Pod Cars required to serve the peak hour demand have been calculated in Table 2:
Pradip Kumar Sarkar et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218 4213
Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 7

Table 2: Capacity calculations

Attribute Formulation Value

Time Headway Distance Headway ÷ Speed 9.6 sec


Service time for each trip Avg Trip Length ÷ Speed 3.2 min/trip
Trips Made by each Pod in 1 Hour 60 ÷ Service Time 18.75 trips/hour
Pods in 1 Km Length* (1000 ÷ Headway) x 2 25 pods/km
Pods in the Entire Network Pods in 1km x Route Length 450 pods
Pod Trips 18.75 x Pods in the Network 8,437 pod trips/hour
Maximum Capacity Pod Trips x Pod Capacity 33,750 pass-trips/hour
Final Capacity* 80% of Maximum Capacity 27,000 pass-trips/hour
Final Capacity (in Passenger-km) Capacity x Avg Trip Length 43,200 pass-km/hour

The system capacity of the PRT system in Dwarka has been calculated to be 27,000 passenger trips per hour. The
peak hour demand is 21,165 passenger trips per hour which is less than the system capacity. Hence, the system will
be capable of handling the expected peak hour demand on the network. The number of pod cars required to achieve
this system capacity is 450 pod cars.

6. Financial Analysis

Detailed financial analysis has been carried out to calculate Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return
(IRR) of the project. IRR of 18% has been taken as the acceptable rate for feasibility of PRT. A project is generally
considered worth investing by IRR method if the IRR value of the project is greater than 16% and it is considered to
break-even if the NPV is positive.

Cash Flow Statement of the project has been prepared for a concession period of 30 years using cost benefit analysis
method. Several other factors considered in the cost benefit analysis can be seen in the model presented in Figure 3.
The NPV of the project is INR 1,324.5 crores and the IRR is 18%. All values have been taken in the Indian Rupee
(INR) and 1 crore is equal to 10 million.

7. Dynamic Model for Benchmarking

Based on the operational and financial analysis, an interactive model for PRT has been developed using Visual
Basic in Microsoft Excel. The model works on the inputs of three heads – Demand Parameters, Operational Parameters
& Financial Parameters. There are several factors under each of the parameters and each of the factors can be manually
entered or tweaked using slider bars in the model. Using the sliders, the impact of any of the factors on the operational
and financial feasibility of the project can be observed. Each of the three heads takes different inputs and generates
specific outputs. The operation and financial feasibility model has been presented in Figure 3.

The Demand Model output is the Base year trips, Base year estimated demand, and the Peak hour demand. It also
gives the NPV and IRR of the project along with the checks for the breakeven point (NPV > 0) of the project and the
system handling capacity.

The Operational Model output is Number of pods required and the Peak hour handling capacity in passengers per
hour. The model also checks whether the system is capable of handling the estimated demand or not. It gives a red
flag if the estimated travel demand is greater than the system handling capacity.

The Financial Model output is the annuity to be paid each year, NPV and IRR of the project. It also checks for the
breakeven point of the project. If the NPV of the project goes below zero, then a red flag is displayed.
4214 Pradip Kumar Sarkar et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218
8 Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

Figure 3: Dynamic Model for Benchmarking of PRT

8. Validation of the Model

The validation of the model has been done using the data using the previously conducted studies on PRT. Input
data has been taken from the PRT studies of Trivandrum and Amritsar. The data from these reports have been
entered into the interactive model and the outputs generated by the model have been compared with the actual
results published in the reports.

The Trivandrum PRT study, conducted as a studio exercise at School of Planning and Architecture, New Delhi
has given different values of IRR by varying the fare per km and growth rate of ridership. All the scenarios have
been entered into the model to get the IRR from the model. The percentage variation in the actual IRR and the IRR
from the model is between 2% and 12%.

Detailed project report of a 3.3km stretch of PRT in Amritsar, Punjab has been prepared by Fairwood Group.
According to this report, the expected IRR of the project is 16% (DPR, 2009). The model has been validated using
the data from the Amritsar PRT study. The IRR given by the model is 16.8% which is very close to the IRR given in
the study.

9. Sensitivity Analysis using the Dynamic Model

The dynamic model developed is itself a tool for sensitivity analysis and benchmarking of PRT systems. The
dynamic model developed is open source and available for download (Jain, 2015). Using this dynamic model, a
sensitivity analysis has been carried out and benchmarks have been developed for PRT.

Eight hypothetical cases have been developed by varying the Fare/km, Ridership Growth Rate and Concession
Period. The effect of varying these three parameters on the Travel Demand, NPV and IRR have been observed using
the dynamic model and presented in Table 3.
Pradip Kumar Sarkar et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218 4215
Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 9

Table 3: Sensitivity Analysis


Concession Travel
Fare/km Ridership NPV
Cases Period Demand IRR (%)
(Rs) Growth (%) (Crores)
(Years) (Trips/Day)
Case 1 10 2.5 20 222,465 201 12.5
Case 2 10 2.5 30 222,465 642 15.0
Case 3 10 5.0 20 222,465 504 15.4
Case 4 10 5.0 30 222,465 1,352 17.8
Case 5 15 2.5 20 185,408 543 16.5
Case 6 15 2.5 30 185,408 1,104 18.2
Case 7 15 5.0 20 185,408 921 19.2
Case 8 15 5.0 30 185,408 1,957 21.0

It can be observed from Table 3 that the maximum NPV and IRR can be achieved in Case 8. But it should also be
noted that Case 8 has a Fare of Rs 15 per km which leads to reduction in the travel demand. As a planner, it should be
ensured that a facility should be beneficial for as many number of people as possible. So, Case 4 appears to be the
next best alternative from this sensitivity analysis. Further, two more hypothetical cases have been developed to see
how the red flags of “Break-Even” and “System Capacity” work in the model.

Case 9: This case has been developed to show how the red flag of breakeven check works. Hypothetically, if the
Percentage shift to PRT is decreased from 36.6% to 16%, keeping all other values same as in case 4. As shown in
Figure 4, the model gives a red flag for breakeven indicating that the project is no longer financially feasible and the
NPV can be seen as a negative value.

Figure 4: Case 9, Red Flag for Break-Even

Case 10: This case has been developed to see how the red flag of the system capacity check works. Hypothetically,
if the headway is increased from 80m to 105m, keeping all other values same as in case 4, the model gives a red flag
for system capacity as shown in Figure 5. The peak hour demand in is 21,134 pass/hr and the system capacity at 105m
headway is 20,571 pass/hr. As the demand is greater than the supply, the red flag is displayed and the model will not
give the NPV and IRR when there is a red flag on the capacity check. This indicated that Travel Demand is more than
the handling capacity of the system and there is a need to tweak the operational parameters.
4216
10 Pradip
AuthorKumar
name /Sarkar et al. / Transportation
Transportation Research
Research Procedia Procedia
00 (2017) 25 (2017) 4207–4218
000–000

Figure 5: Case 10, Red Flag for System Capacity

It should also be understood that the dynamic model which has been developed is sensitive to all the input
parameters like population in the case study area, ridership growth rate, percentage shift to PRT, Fare per km, etc. The
person using this dynamic model may input or vary these parameters which best suit their site conditions to observe
their effect on the travel demand, number of pods required, NPV, IRR and the ability of the network to cater to the
travel demand. Thus, the developed model is itself a tool for carrying out an operational or financial feasibility and
sensitivity analysis.

10. Benchmarks based on Dynamic Model

Benchmarks for PRT have been developed using the dynamic sensitivity model. Internal rate of return (IRR) has
been taken as the criteria for benchmarking. For different route lengths and fare, base year trips and travel demand
have been calculated such that the IRR of the project is 18%. Each curve in the graphs presented in Figure 6 and
Figure 7 represent an IRR of 18%.

Figure 6: Base Year Trips v/s Fare


Pradip Kumar Sarkar et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218 4217
Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 11

To demonstrate the type of inferences that can be drawn from the graph, let’s follow the purple line of route length
15 km in Figure 6. If the route length of the PRT system is 15 km, then at least 4 lakh base year trips are required to
maintain an IRR of 18% and the fare should be INR 20 per km. If one wishes to run the PRT system at a minimum
fare of INR 10 per km, then 5.5 lakh base year trips are required for a PRT route length of 15 km (1 Lakh = 0.10
Million). As the fare goes above INR 20 per km, the number of base year trips required to maintain IRR of 18%
increase. This is because as the fare per km increases, the travel demand decreases. So a higher number of trips are
required to keep the travel demand high and maintain an IRR of 18%.

The travel demand is a function of willingness to shift to PRT system and the base year trips. Travel demand
decreases as the fare per km increases because the willingness to shift to PRT system decreases with the increase in
fare. This behaviour can be observed graphically in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Travel Demand v/s Fare

11. Conclusions

PRT is an emerging mode of public transport which has great potential to improve the last mile connectivity of
public transport users. Although PRT has been observed to be growing around the world, some resistance has been
observed when it is being discussed in developing countries. One of the major reasons behind the resistance is the
uncertainty associated with the operations and finances of a PRT network. An attempt has been made to address these
issues in this study. The benchmark graphs presented in Figure 6 and Figure 7 can be used for quick assessment of
fare per km and route length required to achieve an IRR of 18% if the base year trips or the travel demand is known
in an area. The dynamic model can be used to carry out a detailed sensitivity analysis for any PRT project at an area
level or city level. The model is interactive and is sensitive to the inputs provided by the user. The user can input the
basic values which may change from city to city and area to area. The interactive model will assess the feasibility of
the PRT project and give the details of PRT supply capacity and number of pod cars required to meet the demand.
The sensitivity analysis using the model can show the impact of each of the variable on the operational and financial
feasibility of the project. The model can also be used to analyze the risks and carefully justify the development of a
PRT system in any area.

References

Anderson, J. E.: What is Personal Rapid Transit, University of Washington, 1978.


Anderson, J. E.: Some Lessons from the History of Personal Rapid Transit. Conference on PRT and Other Emerging Transit Systems, Minneapolis,
1996.
Anderson, J. E., 2009. An Intelligent Transportation Network System: Rationale, Attributes, Status, Economics, Benefits, and Courses of Study for
Engineers and Planners. PRT International, LLC.
Castro, C. M. S. e., Barbosa, H. M., Oliveira, L. K., 2013. Analysis of the potential integration of cycling with public transport in Belo Horizonte.
Journal of Transport Literature, Vol 7, Issue 2, pp.146-170.
4218 Pradip Kumar Sarkar et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25 (2017) 4207–4218
12 Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

DPR: Detailed Project Report of PRT Amritsar Project, Ultra Fairwood Green Transport, India, 2009.
EDICT Final Report: Fifth Framework Programme Key Action - City of Tomorrow and Cultural Heritage, European Commission, 2004.
Gilbert, R., Anthony, P., 2006. Grid-connected vehicles as the core of future land based transport systems. Energy Policy, Vol 35, Issue 5, pp.3053–
3060.
Jain, U.: Dynamic Model for Benchmarking & Sensitivity Analysis of PRT, Open source download link:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B7kH4juGQ_WxZGV2VkcxMFhyVVU, Last Accessed on September 23, 2015.
Muller, P. J., 2009. The Impact of PRT on Army Base Sustainability. Automated People Movers, Special Issue, pp. 309-320.
Sarkar, P. K., Maitri, V., Ram S., Meenaz I., 2012. Personalized Rapid Transit Systems – An Approach towards Solving Urban Transport Problems,
A Case Study in Gurgaon City, Haryana, Studio Works, School of Planning & Architecture, New Delhi, India.
Vibhuti, A., Concept of ‘Mass’ in Mass Public Transit, Proceedings of Transportation Planning and Implementation Methodologies for Developing
Countries (TPMDC), 2008.
Vibhuti, A., 2009. Personal Rapid Transit: A Suitable Mass Transit Alternative for India. Journal of Institute of Urban Transport, New Delhi, India,
Vol 5, Issue 3, pp. 22-29.

You might also like