Transit Oriented Development and Its Impact On Lev

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Transportation Research Procedia 25C (2017) 3039–3058
World Conference on Transport Research - WCTR 2016 Shanghai. 10-15 July 2016
“Transit Oriented Development and Its Impact on Level of Service

of Roads & METRO: A Case Study of Mumbai Metro Line-I”
Chatrali Shirkeaa, G. J. Joshib*
b*, V. Kandalacc, S. S. Arkatkardd
a
aM.tech Student, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology (SVNIT),Surat-395007,India
M.tech Student, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology (SVNIT),Surat-395007,India
b
b Associate Professor,
Associate Professor, Sardar
Sardar Vallabhbhai
Vallabhbhai National
National Institute
Institute of
of Technology
Technology (SVNIT),Surat-395007,India
(SVNIT),Surat-395007,India
cc
Additional
Additional Chief,UMMTA,Metro,Mono,MMRDA,Mumbai-400098,India
Chief,UMMTA,Metro,Mono,MMRDA,Mumbai-400098,India
d
dAssistant Professor, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology (SVNIT),Surat-395007,India
Assistant Professor, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology (SVNIT),Surat-395007,India
Abstract
Abstract
The
The study
study proposes
proposes aa methodology
methodology to to evaluate
evaluate the
the impact
impact of
of planned
planned Transit
Transit Oriented
Oriented Development
Development (TOD)
(TOD) along
along new
new METRO
METRO
rail
rail project. Using this
project. Using this methodology,
methodology, the the applicability
applicability of
of TOD
TOD principles
principles using
using vertical
vertical development
development in in rapidly
rapidly developing
developing
metropolitan city,
metropolitan city, Mumbai,
Mumbai, in
in India
India is
is explored.
explored. The
The methodology
methodology focuses
focuses on
on prediction
prediction of
of mode
mode choice
choice behaviour
behaviour of of people
people before
before
implementation of
implementation of planned
planned TOD.
TOD. Moreover,
Moreover, indirect
indirect impacts
impacts ofof TOD
TOD like,
like, financial
financial feasibility,
feasibility, decrease
decrease in
in fuel
fuel consumption
consumption and
and
travel time for planned year, 2036, are evaluated. Findings of this study show that TOD can be an effective tool for achieving the
travel time for planned year, 2036, are evaluated. Findings of this study show that TOD can be an effective tool for achieving the
sustainable
sustainable development
development inin highly
highly congested
congested metropolitan cities of
metropolitan cities of developing
developing country
country as
as even
even though
though density
density isis increased
increased within
within
Transit
Transit Influence
Influence Area
Area (TIA),
(TIA), the
the congestion
congestion on
on roads
roads will
will not
not be
be increased.
increased.
©
© 2017
2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by
by Elsevier
Elsevier B.V.
B.V.
© 2017 The Authors.
Peer-review under Published by
responsibility of Elsevier
WORLD B.V.
CONFERENCE ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH SOCIETY.
Peer-review under
Peer-review under responsibility
responsibility of
of WORLD
WORLD CONFERENCE
CONFERENCE ON ON TRANSPORT
TRANSPORT RESEARCH
RESEARCH SOCIETY.
SOCIETY.
Keywords:Transit
Keywords:Transit Oriented
Oriented Development;
Development; Floor
Floor Space
Space Index;Mixed
Index;Mixed Landuse;
Landuse; Mode
Mode Choice
Choice Behaviour
Behaviour
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
In developing
In developing countries
countries like
like India,
India, the
the transport
transport infrastructure
infrastructure is
is limited
limited and
and poorly
poorly maintained.
maintained. There
There is
is significant
significant
increase
increase in
in private
private vehicle
vehicle ownership
ownership because
because ofof India’s
India’s growing
growing economy
economy andand major
major advancements
advancements in in vehicle
vehicle
affordability.
affordability. The
The demand
demand for for vehicle
vehicle transport
transport is
is significantly higher than
significantly higher than the
the available
available road
road capacity,
capacity, resulting
resulting in
in
severe
severe congestion
congestion with
with its
its detrimental
detrimental socio-economic
socio-economic andand environmental
environmental impacts.
impacts. This
This necessitates
necessitates the
the need
need for
for shift
shift
from private
from private vehicles
vehicles to
to public
public transport.
transport. ToTo encourage
encourage this
this shift,
shift, Transit
Transit Oriented
Oriented Development
Development (TOD)
(TOD) isis one
one of
of the
the
*
* Corresponding
Corresponding author.
author. Tel.:
Tel.: +91-9879564862
+91-9879564862
E-mail address:
E-mail address: gj@ced.svnit.ac.in
gj@ced.svnit.ac.in
2214-241X©
2214-241X© 2017
2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by
by Elsevier
Elsevier B.V.
B.V.
Peer-review
Peer-review under
under responsibility
responsibility of
of WORLD
WORLD CONFERENCE
CONFERENCE ON ON TRANSPORT
TRANSPORT RESEARCH
RESEARCH SOCIETY.
SOCIETY.
2352-1465 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Peer-review under responsibility of WORLD CONFERENCE ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH SOCIETY.
10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.297
3040 G. J. Joshi et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25C (2017) 3039–3058
2 Shirke et al./ Transportation Research Procedia00 (2017) 000–000
effective tools as principles of TOD focus on compact growth within an easy walk of transit stations, bringing potential
riders closer to transit facilities, and promotes transit dependency.
In highly populated Indian metropolitan cities like Mumbai, Residents face many problems on a daily basis such as
compact housing, scarcity of open space, crowded public transport (local trains as well as busses) and heavy traffic
on roads – especially during rush hours. Hence, in such cities Metro Rail Systems are introduced along the congested
areas to ease the increasing traffic congestion. In Mumbai, a METRO network of total 146 km length is planned, out
of which a METRO line connecting Versova (V) to Ghatkopar (G) to through Andheri (A) known as Mumbai Metro
Line- I (VAG-Corridor) commenced on 8th June 2014. Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority
(MMRDA) is planning to implement TOD along the newly introduced METRO network.
Transit-oriented development (TOD) can directly benefit a transit agency through increases in ridership and
revenues. TODs can also have a positive impact on society by reducing auto use and reducing the volume of vehicles
and congestion on the highway network. However, its success aspects are unknown and yet to be explored. It is
important to evaluate whether the area where TOD is planned will give the above desired effects and to what extent.
Hence, this study focuses on developing methodology for evaluating impacts of TOD before implementing it in a
particular Transit Influence Area (TIA).
This study considers the DN Nagar Metro station on Mumbai Metro Line -1 as a pilot study area where Floor
Space Index (FSI) is proposed to increase from 1 to 4 within Transit Influence Area (TIA) i.e. area within 500 metres
radius to achieve TOD. At the same time, while increasing the density within TIA it is necessary to maintain the
designed Level of Service for roads and METRO services even though number of trips in the area are increased. Thus,
using proposed methodology, this study attempts to analyze mode choice behaviour of people within TIA due to
increase in density before implementing proposed development so that designed Level of Service (LOS) of roads are
maintained. Further, the impact of TOD on metro services, fuel consumption and travel time is also analysed for
understanding the indirect effectiveness of TOD. After knowing the impacts of TOD it also important to know the
feasibility of implementation of proposed development in given area so that various stake holders involved like
developers, government authorities and plot owners are benefited and encouraged for such development. Hence, this
study also explores financial feasibility for implementing TOD to help the authorities as well as developers in taking
an informed decision about the feasibility of TOD Schemes at any other METRO station.
The findings from this study are useful for the decision makers, practitioners and policy makers to predict passenger
modal shift behaviour in case of TOD in developing countries and develop TOD policies based on its predicted impact
on existing roads and transit system.
The paper is organised as follows, section 2 reviews previous studies on concept of TOD, different methods of
implementation of TOD and impact of TOD. Section 3 and section 4 specify objectives of the study and methodology
used to achieve those objectives, respectively. Section 5 and section 6 provides the detailed information about study
area and data collection method, respectively. Section 7 presents development proposal for pilot study area.
Subsequently, in section 8 methodology and case study for impact analysis of proposed development is given.
Financial feasibility for proposed development is explained in section 9. Finally, paper is concluded in section 10 and
section 11 puts forth contribution of this study.
2. Literature Review
Key examples of the main categories of literature that are relevant to understanding the potential of TOD as well as
the challenges that lead to sub-optimal outcomes are presented in this section. As per Cervero (2006), TOD is a viable
model for transportation and land-use integration in many rapidly developing cities of the world, including those in
Asia. TOD is a straightforward concept: concentrate a mix of moderately dense and pedestrian-friendly development
around transit stations to promote transit riding, increased walk and bicycle travel, and other alternatives to the use of
private cars. Whereas some of the studies for example Cervero et al. (1994),Boarnet and Nicholas (1996) and Boarnet
and Randall (1997) deals primarily with the “barriers” or “obstacles” to transit-oriented development. As per these
studies, existing land-use patterns near rail transit stations aredifficulties in assembling large parcels of land , inability
of the private land market to sustain new development projects, local economic and fiscal impacts of TOD and lack
of knowlwdge about both the regional advantages and local impacts of TOD are some of the constraints for TOD
opportunities. Hence, a study by Cervero and Kockelman (1997) emphasizes the role of the “three Ds” –
density,diversity, and design – in the success of TOD.
Though many guidleines are available to execute TOD; for example TOD Guideliens published by Metropolitan
G. J. Joshi et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 25C (2017) 3039–3058 3041
Shirke et al./ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 3
Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority(2010), City of Ottawa Planning, Transit and the Environment Department (2007) and
many more however it is also important to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of TOD.
It is claimed that transit-oriented developments (TODs) have the ability to reduce the number and average lengths
of auto trips by providing better non automobile accessibility to jobs and other destinations and to encourage
sustainable modes (i.e., transit, walking, and biking) by facilitating a pedestrian-friendly environment and transit
services. Various studies have been carried out in already existing TOD areas to investigate whether TODs actually
have those hypothesized impacts. Review of TOD evaluation and impact studies includes the report by Arrington and
Cervero (2008),which confirms what had been intuitively obvious: in the four metropolitan areas studied, TOD
housing produced considerably less traffic than what is generated by conventional development. For peak periods
(that often govern thedesign of roads and highways), this research shows transit oriented apartments average around
one half the norm of vehicle trips per dwelling unit. Similarly, as per Clower, et al. (2011) and Hendricks (2005)
moving into TOD decreases Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) by an average of 15 percent, or about 3,500 miles per
year, which impacts TxDOT (Texas Department of Transport) motor fuel tax revenues. The data also indicate that
these households shift their choice of route to include more arterial roads versus highways. Moreover, comprehensive
analysis of TODs in the Washington,D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland, metropolitan areas by Zamir, K et al. (2014)
found that people living in TODs made more trips by all modes of transportation but fewer trips by auto. The results
also showed that TOD residents tended to travel shorter distances by all modes of transportation, a finding that implies
the selection of closer destinations for their activities. Slimilarly, Ewing and Hamidi (2014) used longitudinal data to
estimate the effects of discrete changes in the built environment by comparing a treated transit corridor with a highway
corridor that serves as a control. The study estimates a transit multiplier of 3.04, meaning that transit reduces VMT
by three vehicle miles in total for every vehicle mile reduced due to transit ridership. The direct effect of TOD occurs
through increases in transit ridership and associated reductions in household VMT.In addition to reduction in number
of trips and trip length by vehicles TOD also has direct impact on the change in out-ofpocketcosts for users, as well
as the changes in costs of externalitiesand agency benefits. The same is evaluated by Mudigonda et al.(2014) through
study of several sites throughoutNew Jersey to determine the cost of driving versusthe cost of using rail transit to
major employment destinations in NewJersey and New York City. The study shows that TOD results in financial
benefits to the user and the transportation system.
Further, while relating TOD with sustainable development, Lindsey et al.(2010) suggestes that substantial energy
and greenhouse gas emissions savings are possible if commuters living and working close to rail were to use it for
their daily work trips. However, the barriers to achieving these potential savings are also quite significant. A TOD
study is carried out by taking case of Delhi metro by Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC), which critically analyzed
the population forecasts and holding capacity of the study area based on the permissible activities and their respective
impacts on traffic and transportation, and physical and social infrastructure needs over the next 20 years.The study
also demonstrates that with careful planning, design, financial modelling and phasing sustainable TOD communities
can be created.Moreover, Renne (2009) presents a method to evaluate the sustainability of TODs based on six aspects
of outcomes, including 1. Travel Behaviour, 2.The Local Economy, 3. The Natural Environment, 4. The Built
Environment,5. The Social Environment, and 6. The Policy Context based on study of five rail precincts across Perth,
Western Australia.
Out of available literature and research studies, very limited studies have attempted research on the subject matter
of evaluation of impcats of TOD before actually implementing it. Though TOD being old concept, it has recently
gained attention of policy makers in India as a tool for sustainable development as discussed by Maheshwari (2013)
and Rangwala et al.(2014). Moreover, Modal shift is one of the important indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of
the planned TOD. Hence this study aims at developing a simple yet systematic methodology for Indian cities to
analyze the impact of TOD on mode choice behaviour as well as on present infrastucure and transit system before
making it a reality. Based on the analysis, the paper will explore whether TOD parameters and components can be
implemented to the areas around new METRO rail projects in India to achieve the desired development densities and
transit ridership.
3. Objectives
The primary objective of the study is to develop a methodology to evaluate the impact of Transit Oriented
Development (TOD) on mode choice behaviour of people within Transit Influence Area (TIA) before implementing
TOD. Moreover, study aims to determine impact of changed mode choice behaviour on Level of Service (LOS) of
roads and METRO. Considering case study of Mumbai Metro Line – I, the objectives for the present research are
formulated as given below:
1. To study the current land use and policies for Transit Influence Area (TIA) along Line-I of Mumbai Metro
2. To suggest the changes in land use and its policies to increase the density within TIA
3. To develop a methodology and implement the same to study the changes in mode choice behavior due to changes
in land use and density
4. To Analyze the effect of TOD on METRO ridership as well as on METRO services planned
5. To Carry out financial feasibility analysis for implementing TOD
Ultimately, the above objectives are aimed to analyse the suitability of TOD as a tool of sustainable development for
Indian cities.
4. Methodology
Research methodology is most important factor of a study and research. To achieve the objective of the study, primary
step is to design a desirable methodology which suits the research. Figure 1 shows flow of activities carried out for
the present study.
Inventory Data: Study area delineation Survey data

• Land use survey (As input for
• CTS report of MMR
development proposal)
• Mumbai metro line I Data Collection
DPR • Traffic volume count survey
(As input for prediction of
• DP sheets (Land use)
modal share)
• Past metro commuter
surveys (To get current Development Proposal
mode share) (TOD) • Base year -2015 and Planning
Year - 2036
• Increase in density by
Prediction of mode choice increasing FSI
Develop Methodology behaviour
(For years 2021, 2026, 2031 and
2036) Analysis for area under
Impact of proposed
study
development on
• LOS of roads
Impact Analysis
• Metro services
• Fuel consumption
• Travel time
Check financial feasibility of
proposed development
Summary and conclusion
Figure 1 Research methodology
Following sections explain in detail the each step of methodology presented in Figure 1 above and analysis of the
data.
5. Study Area Delineation
Mumbai (Figure 2(a)) currently has an extensive commuter rail system. Suburban Railway system (or local train)
provides North-south connectivity for the city. However, it is not built to rapid transit specifications. In January 2004,
Mumbai Metropolitan Regional Development Authority unveiled master transit plan, including 146 km metro. Out of
this network, Mumbai metro line-I also referred as Metro-I or Versova-Andheri-Ghatkopar (VAG) corridor has
already commenced on 8thJune 2014. This 11.40 km line is fully elevated, and consists of 12 stations. This Metro line
connects two suburban railway lines running parallel to each other (North-South) at Ghatlopar and Andheri, improving
East-West connectivity, which is demonstrated in Figure 2(b) below.
VAG corridor is selected for this study as it runs through major areas of city with dense development. A detailed
inventory of the land-use surrounding all the metro stations on this Metro Link can be found from Development Plan
sheets of the area. It was observed that areas around all the transit stations are having different characters. DN Nagar
station was selected for the pilot study as current metro ridership is satisfactory from Ghatkopar station to Andheri
station. But ridership drops down after Andheri station till Versova. As one of the objectives of TOD is to increase
metro ridership, the study is focusing on DN Nagar station initially. DN Nagar station is also of special importance as
at this station Metro line - II will be intersecting with Metro line-I as per Master plan of metro shown in Figure 2(d).
Figure 2(c) shows DN Nagar Metro station and Transit Influence Area (TIA) surrounding it. Area within 500 meter
radius at metro station is considered as Transit Influence Area (TIA) for present study as 500 meters distance can be
covered comfortably by walk within 5 to 10 minutes (Institution for Transportation and Development Policy, 2014)
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 2 Study area details; (a) Mumbai city; (b) Suburban railway network with Metro network; (C) Mumbai Metro Line 1&2; (d) DN Nagar
station with TIA
6. Data Collection
The proposed TOD within study area, existing scenario of land use and traffic pattern within area are analyzed with
the help of inventory as well as field surveys.
6.1. Land use survey
The key to achieve TOD goal is to locate the various compatible uses close together, making them easily
accessible to each other in order to improve walkability. It is necessary to study existing land use pattern within study
area and then propose the redevelopment to transform the land use into transit supportive form. Hence firstly existing
land use in study area as shown in Figure-3(a) and (b) was obtained from Development Plan of Mumbai Metropolitan
Region as well as by physically visiting study area. The land use survey also helped in collecting data where
questionnaire survey format were administered to collect the relevant data and information. Questionnaire was filled
by conducting face-to-face interviews of builders, residents and officials of Municipal Corporation of the Greater
Mumbai. The land use data collected includes existing plots areas, Built Up Area (BUA), Floor Space Index (FSI)
(permitted and consumed) and type of land use on each of the plot.
6.2. Traffic volume count survey
Understanding the current traffic scenario as well as LOS of existing roads serving the study area traffic volume
count survey is conducted using video filming method at major junction in study area. Figure-2(c) shows the Oil India
Junction (below DN Nagar Metro station) where survey was conducted. Geometry of the junction is shown in Figure-
2(d).Video recording was done for 8 hours covering morning peak as well as some portion of evening peak (8.00 AM
to 2.00 PM and 5.00 PM to 7.00 PM). Classified vehicle count at each approach was extracted from the recorded video
for an interval of 15 minutes in three directions i.e. right turning, straight and left turning. Morning peak period is
considered for analysis which is from 8.00 AM to 12.00 PM as it is found to be a peak of peaks. From 15- minute
interval count hourly volume count of vehicles was obtained in terms of PCUs and hence peak hour was determined
for each approach as well as for entire junction which was found to be 9.15 AM to 10.15 AM.
7% 18%
23%
1% 13% 37%
1%
PUBLIC AMENITIES RESIDENTIAL
Gov. LAND INDUSTRIAL
RECREATION/ SHOPPING CENTER GREEN LAND
ROADS
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 3 Data Collection;(a) Existing Land Use Pattern; (b) Existing land use distribution; (c) Major Junction in study area; (d) Geometry of
major junction
7. Development Proposal
Density is all about scale, with the goal being to create a compact walkable district. Density within TODs raises
the bar and achieves a higher net average resulting in greater ridership, both within the TOD district and within a 5-
minute walk of transit. The general rule of thumb shows doubling density equates to a 60 percent increase in transit
trips as per guidelines based on the experience of Winnipeg City. (PB’s PlaceMaking Group, 2011)
Hence, to increase the density at TIA of DN Nagar station, vertical developent is proposed by increasing the
permissible FSI to 4 from existing permissible FSI of 1 and charging a premium on additional FSI . Increased FSI will
create a range of housing opportunities and choices. It will help to channelize the redevelopment of large number of
old structures. Additional FSI to plot owners is one of the main instruments for incentivizing them to amalgamate
plots for mutual benefit. Thus, small properties can be merged and avail of larger FSI for redevelopment. Plots with
larger areas are expected to be redeveloped with greater number of floors and release ground space for other uses such
as for circulation and green spaces. Urban design with environmental concerns will also be mandated in the
restructuring through regulations. Thus, much needed open spaces, playgrounds and public amenity spaces, as well as
basement parking areas are expected to be created through creative redevelopment schemes. Hence, a plot
amalgamation strategy is suggested for smaller plots to create minimum plot area of 4,000 m2. Thus the total plot area
in the TIA is divided into 38 plots varying from 7,000 to 36,000 m2.Amalgamation of plots in 500 m TIA of DN Nagar
Area is presented and land use proposal is shown in Figure 4 below.
(a) (b)
Zone Zone R1:
C1:commer Mixed land
cial use 14%
34% 29%
31%
14%
25% 16%
Zone R3: Zone R2:

Rehailitatio Rsidential
with shop Rsidential commercial
n Recreational/open land Government land
4% line
Road & Infrastructure
33%
(c) (d)
Figure 4 Land use proposal; (a) Amalgamation of plots; (b) Land Use Pattern; (c) Zone wise Land Use Distribution; (d) Land Use Distribution
The proposed land use is divided into 4 zones i.e. R1, R2, R3 and C1 according to Development Control Regulations
of Mumbai (Part V: Land Use Classification & Uses Permitted) as follows:
• R1 Zone: It is a Mixed Land Use zone, in the zone marked as R1, maximum allotted F.S.I. is 4, out of which
only 30% can be used for commercial purpose and the remaining should be used for residential purpose.
• R2 Zone: This zone has been designated for residential use with shop line. Maximum allotted F.S.I. is 4, out of
which only 10% can be used for commercial purpose and the remaining should be used for residential purpose.
• R3 Zone: This zone has been designated for rehabilitation and re-settlement of Slums and other Project Affected
Families (PAF’s). F.S.I. of 4 is allotted for the same, which should include rehabilitation as well as sale
component required for financing of rehabilitation and resettlement.
• C1 Zone: Area marked as C1, in which, maximum allotted F.S.I. is 4, which can be completely used for
commercial purpose.
Thus, as proposed in this section, increase in FSI will result in, increased household and employment opportunities as
analyzed in the next section.
8. Impact Analysis
For understanding the impact of proposed development as discussed in the above section, it is necessary to analyse
population and employment generated and ultimately trips generated at TIA of DN Nagar metro station. It is assumed
that, proposed development will take approximately 20 years to come into reality and hence 2036 is considered as
horizon year for this study and 2015 as base year. After amalgamation of plots, total BUA is calculated by considering
FSI 4.
Population and employment density (per m2-BUA) in 2036 is predicted in Comprehensive Transportation Study
(CTS) report for Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) by Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority
(MMRDA,2008). The total population and employment within TIA are predicted for the year 2036 by multiplying
BUA of 2036 and density. Applying the trip generation equations, trips produced and attracted to TIA in 2036 are
calculated. Trip generation equations are referred from Comprehensive Transportation Study (CTS) of MMR
(2008).These equations give trips generated in TIA region at DN Nagar during morning peak hour in the planning
year 2036.Total population and empoyment after increasing the FSI to 4 within TIA at DN Nagar in 2036 is expected
to be 43,193 and 65,645 respectively. After proposed redevelopment in study area, employment generated will be 8.9
times the base year i.e. 2015 employment and population is expected to get doubled.
Hence, after 100% achievement of proposed redevelopment plan, number of trips produced from study area by the
year 2036 will be 8,234 and 44,099 number of trips will be attracted to study area during morning peak period. Further,
it is necessary to study the mode choice behaviour of these trips which are generated due to the impact of TOD. This
is analyzed in following section.
8.1. Mode choice model
After forecasting the productions and attractions during morning peak period in planning year 2036 due to
proposed development, mode choice behavior of these trips is analyzed using Multinomial Logit Model (MNL). The
MNL model used for this study, are the refined models from CTS report of MMR. According to this model, mode
choice is dependent on in-vehicle travel time, travel cost and out-of-the-vehicle distance (Access + Egress). Three
Wheeler, Taxi, Car, Two-Wheeler, Bus, suburban train and Metro are the mode choices available to the travelers. The
original utility equations for MNL model as per CTS report for MMR are specified in Table 1 below:
Table 1 Original utility equations as per CTS for MMR
Mode Utility equation

U (Train) = -0.0252* IVTTtrain – 0.0148* IVTCtrain- 0.1255*TrOVDI
U(Bus) = -1.100 – 0.0252* IVTTBus – 0.0148* IVTCBus – 0.1255* BOVDI
U(IPT) = -3.8619 – 0.0252 * IVTT taxi/Auto – 0.0148 IPTCOST
U(PVT) = 3.699 – 0.0252 * IVTTcar/2W – 0.0148*PVTCOST
U(Metro) = 0.600 – 0.0252*IVTTmetro – 0.0148* MetroCOST – 0.251* MOVDI
Where,
IVTTtrain: In Vehicle Travel Time by Train
IVTTBus: In Vehicle Travel Time by Bus
IVTTtaxi/Auto: In Vehicle Travel Time by either Taxi/Auto both of which is same
IVTTCar/2W: Vehicle Travel Time by either Car/Two wheeler both of which is same
IVTCBus: In Vehicle Travel Cost by Bus
IVTCtrain: In Vehicle Travel Cost by Train
IPTCost: Weighted in Vehicle Travel Cost of Auto and Taxi
PVTCost: Weighted in Vehicle Travel Cost of Car and 2W
MetroCost: In Vehicle Travel Cost by Metro
TrOVDI: Out of vehicle distance traveled in case of train (Access+Egress)
BOVDI: Out of vehicle distance traveled in case of bus (Access+Egress)
MOVDI: Out of vehicle distance traveled in case of metro (Access+Egress)
As these utility functions were prepared in 2005 when metro was not introduced and are based on stated preference
survey, modification is required in them as these are to be used in the year 2015 and next when metro is in operation
and metro network is growing further. The process used for refining above utility equations is specified in Figure 4
below.
Figure 5 Procedure followed to refine utility functions
The refined utility functions as per procedure specified in Figure 4 are given in Table 2 below.
Table 2 Refined Utility Equations
Mode Utility Equations

U(Auto) = 0.950 – 0.0252 * IVTTAuto – 0.0148 IPTCOST
U(Taxi) = - 4.500 – 0.0252 * IVTT taxi – 0.0148 IPTCOST
U(2W) = -0.655 – 0.0252 * IVTT2W – 0.0148*PVTCOST
U(Car) = 1.600 – 0.0252 * IVTTcar – 0.0148*PVTCOST
U(Bus) = -1.000 – 0.0252* IVTTBus – 0.0148* IVTCBus – 0.1255* BOVDI
U(Train) = 0.900 - 0.0252* IVTTtrain – 0.0148* IVTCtrain- 0.1255*TrOVDI
U(Metro) = 0.045 – 0.0252*IVTTmetro – 0.0148* MetroCOST – 0.251* MOVDI
Where meanings of attributes are same as previous specifies below Table 1.
In the above utility refinement process, the mode specific constants are changed such that output (Mode share)
obtained by inputting the values of attributes for the year 2015 matched with observed mode share in the year 2015.
Typically, the alternative specific constants are considered to represent the average effect of all factors that influence
the choice but are not included in the utility specification. For example, factors such as comfort, safety, privacy and
reliability may be excluded due to the difficulty associated with their measurement. Hence, mode specific constants
may change over the years as factors summarised by these constants specific to each modes may change due to change
in quality of services of different modes or due to introduction of new competitive modes (Koppelman and Bhat,
2006). For example, after refinement mode specific constant for auto changes from negative to positive this is because
utility of auto has increased from year 2005 to 2015 due to various factors such as improvement in income of users,
improved services etc. Similarly, Utility of private vehicles such as cars, two wheelers is decreased in year 2015 due
to introduction of new public transport mode i.e. METRO which was not present in 2005.Whereas, utility of METRO
predicted in 2005 based on stated preference survey is more than its actual utility in the year 2015 when it is actually
introduced because in 2015 total METRO network has not come into existence and only one line of METRO is
operating.
After deriving new utility functions from MNL as shown in Table 2 above, mode choice behavior of trips projected
for planning year 2036 as well as intermediate years i.e. 2021, 2026 and 2031 are studied in detail.
8.2. Prediction of mode choice behavior
The impact of TOD i.e. increased density, population and employment opportunities on modal share and LOS of
current roadway facilities are studied in this section. It is also important to study the impact of proposed development
on road traffic during the intermediate years i.e. 2021, 2026 and 2031 as TOD will be achieved stage wise in successive
years until complete development is achieved in 2036. In the present study, two roads shown in Figure 3(d) in study
area; namely JP road (Four-lane divided carriage way) and Link Road (Six-lane divided carriage way) are considered
to analyze the impact of TOD.
Traffic on major road in base year
V/C ratio of roads in base year

Split the traffic generated due to
Traffic projected for planning TOD into modes based on modal
year using natural growth rate split observed in base year (Do
Nothing)
Total Traffic in planning year as
per do nothing condition
V/C ratio of roads in planning year

keeping the road capacity same as base
year
Alter travel time of modes based on new

V/C ratio
Modified Travel Time
Multinomial Logit for available modes
Model with refined Expected modal split in planning year due to increased V/C of
utility functions roads
V/C of road using new modal split
NO
If
V/C <= 0.7
YES
Accept modal split obtained for planning year
Figure 6 Procedure for impact analysis of TOD on modal split and road traffic
Figure 6 above, shows the procedure followed to predict mode choice behaviour after development and evaluate
its impact on road traffic during morning peak hour. Proposed TOD will not take place suddenly in one year but it is
a continuous process where the development will take place successively in decades. Moreover, this redevelopment
will not be achieved on whole area at the same time but redevelopment will take place on small parts in successive
year. It is assumed that proposed redevelopment will be achieved completely in the year 2036. Further, it is assumed
that 20%, 40% and 70% of the total redevelopment will be achieved by the years 2021, 2026 and 2031, respectively.
As shown in Figure 6, current traffic on two major roads in present study area is obtained from volume count
survey. The present volume is used for future projection of volume of the planning year 2036 as well as for
intermediate years 2031, 2026 and 2021 using traffic growth specified in simulation study carried out by MMRDA.
In this projected traffic, traffic generated due to TOD in respective years is added, considering TOD generated traffic
follows same modal split as that of base year 2015. This condition is known as do nothing condition i.e. beyond current
share of metro, metro share will not increase further and for this condition V/C ratio for roads is calculated for the
years 2036, 2031,2026 and 2021.
These V/C ratios of roads are found to be more than ‘1’ which is not acceptable. As V/C ratio is increasing,
congestion will increase and ultimately travel time by different modes on road will also increase. Hence new travel
time by each mode is calculated as per new V/C ratio using plots of Speed Vs V/C ratio for different travel modes on
different road widths (Krishnamurthy, 2008).While the travel time for modes plying on roads will change but at the
same time, travel time by train and metro will remain unaltered. Also the travel cost by all the modes will increase by
2036 but it is assume that the increase will be for all modes hence the relative costs of all modes will be same. Using
modified travel time and same travel cost in the multinomial logit model, modal split is calculated for the respective
years.
Travel time calculated according to new V/C ratio is almost same for all modes because V/C ratio in case of do
nothing condition is more than 1 where roads will be highly congested and flow will be near to zero, as a result all
vehicles will have to follow same minimum speed. After obtaining a new travel time from above step, the same is put
into mode choice model to get new modal split. Again according to this modal split traffic and V/C ratio on roads is
obtained. This procedure is continued until V/C ratio obtained on roads is less than or equal to ‘0.7’. This is because
according to IRC: 108-1990, normally LOS ‘C’ is adopted for the design of urban roads. At this level, volume of
traffic is around 0.7 times the maximum capacity and this is taken as “Design Service Volume” for the purpose of
adopting design values. Hence in this study, it is proposed to maintain LOS ‘C’ on roads for which they are designed.
Modal split observed in base year 2015 and mode share obtained using procedure specified in Figure 5 in planning
year 2036 as well as in intermediate years 2031, 2026 and 2021 is shown in Figure 6 below. It is observed that in
addition to current share of 2015; total 40% of trips from TIA are expected to shift to local train and METRO in the
planning year 2036. Out of this 40 % shift 21% are expected to prefer METRO. Moreover, minimum 35% riders of
road based vehicular through traffic is expected to shift to METRO due to introduction of 2nd metro line which is
intersecting VAG corridor at station under study. Hence, the total METRO share in 2036 will be 51%. Similarly, in
the intermediate years 2021, 2026 and 2031; share of metro is expected to increase by 2%, 5%, and 17%, respectively
which can be seen from Figure 7.
Using the above expected modal share, traffic generated due to TOD is calculated and it is added to current traffic
projected for respective years. While projecting the road based current traffic, some traffic out of this is also expected
to shift to METRO as METRO network is expected to expand further. This shift of road based vehicular through
traffic to METRO is also taken same as that observed in above modal share i.e. 40%, 30%, 6% and 1% of total traffic
in the years 2036, 2031, 2026 and 2021 respectively. Based on total traffic volume, V/C ratios are recalculated for
respective years. If the recalculated V/C ratios are more than 0.7 then again the travel times are modified and procedure
is repeated as shown in Figure 6.
Further, two more scenarios are developed for each year considering higher amount of shift to METRO from road
based through vehicular traffic because Metro Line –II is intersecting Line-I at DN Nagar Metro station as shown in
Figure 2(c). The implementation period is expected to be 2017-2023. For planning year 2036, 40% and 45% of through
traffic assumed to shift. However, for 2031, 30% and 35% shift is considered and in 2026, 20% and 30% shift is
considered.
Modal share for year 2015

Cycle
4% 7% 2W
8%
28% 7% Auto
Car
33% BUS
13%
Train
Metro
Modal Share (2021) Modal Share (2026)

8% 0% 7% 0%
30% 33% 16%

18% 6%
7% 29%
26% 11% 9%
Auto Taxi 2W Car Bus Train Metro Auto Taxi 2W Car Bus Train Metro
Modal Share (2031) Modal Share (2036) 0.6%
2% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1%
4%
6%
46%
51% 45%
40%
Auto Taxi 2W Car Bus Train Metro Auto Taxi 2W Car Bus Train Metro
Figure 7 Modal split for the horizon and planning years
Expected V/C ratios of two major roads within TIA of DN Nagar metro station in the years 2036, 2031, 2026 and
2021 obtained by above procedure is given in Table 3 below.
Table 3 V/C ratios of roads with and without TOD
Roads\ Year 2015 2021 2026 2031 2036

JP Road ( Four-Lane divided) 0.66 0.67 0.6 0.66 0.63
Link Road (Six-Lane divided) 0.92 0.93 0.77 0.72 0.65
While calculating the above V/C ratios given in Table 3, for link road additional shift of 20% from road traffic to
METRO is considered because of the introduction of Metro Line-II. The Metro Line-II will run parallel to link road,
hence there will be introductory shift from road based mode to METRO which is expected to be minimum 20% from
the experience of Mumbai Metro Line – I when it was introduced.
It is observed that during morning peak period 2030 and 574 number of two wheelers will be reduced by the year
2036 and 2031 respectively on two major roads passing through study area. Also only 70 and 700 two wheelers will
be added by the year 2026 and 2021 as the TOD will not be achieved completely by these years. In addition to this
during morning peak period 1638,927,427 and 33 Autos on roads in study area will be reduced by the years 2036,
2031, 2026 and 2021, respectively. Importantly 3325, 1886, 870 and 72 cars on roads in study area during morning
peak period will be reduced by the years 2036, 2031, 2026 and 2021 respectively. Hence as road based transport
modes will reduce, the LOS currently offered by road facilities in study area will be maintained same after TOD.
Hence there is no need for the widening of existing roads which is also practically not possible. Since, the area
considered for this study is already in a developed part of the city. Thus the widening of road will be difficult as traffic
management and land acquisition will be the major problems to deal with.
8.3. Impact on METRO services
METRO ridership will increase due to natural growth and further introductions of new METRO lines, which are
already, estimated in Detailed Project Report (DPR) of Mumbai Metro Line - I. In addition to this, near DN Nagar
Metro station; TOD is proposed because of which share of metro increase as seen in previous section also additional
ridership will be generated at DN Nagar Metro station. Hence, it is necessary to check whether the services and
capacity planned in the detailed project report of Mumbai Metro Line - I will be adequate to cater the additional
ridership in the coming years.
Hence, to check the adequacy of metro capacities planned after proposed TOD at DN Nagar station, section loads
are calculated by adding the additional Peak Hour Peak Direction Traffic (PHPDT) to the PHPDT expected as per
DPR in planning year 2036 as well in intermediate year 2026. These section loads are compared with Scheduled Line
Capacity (SLC) in respective years. The Figure 8(a) shows the metro line links connected to DN Nagar station. In the
Figure 8(a) red arrow indicated highest loaded link out of available links during morning peak period. Summary of
PHPDT for metro at station links connected to DN Nagar Metro station and Scheduled Line Capacities (SLC) for
different years is shown in Figure 8(b).
(a)
25000
20000 PHPDT Without TOD

No. Of Passangers
PHPDT with TOD

15000
SLC (2015)
10000
SLC (2026)
5000
SLC (2036)
0
2015 2026 2036
Year
(b)
Figure 8 (a) Links Connected to DN Nagar Metro Station; (b) Metro Capacities planned and expected loading
The calculations of expected section loadings presented in above Figure 8 are shown in Table 4 and Table 5 below:
Table 4 Expected Section Loading and Metro Capacity in the year 2026 (For morning peak hour)
Section load estimated Additional Total Estimated SLC* proposed in 2026

Station in 2026 according to section load due Section Load for according to DPR
DPR to TOD 2026
From To a b C =a+b d
Azad Nagar DN Nagar 3250 1558 4808 17670
DN Nagar Azad Nagar 2640 1218 3858 17670
DN Nagar Versova 365 151 516 17670
Versova DN Nagar 365 156 521 17670
Total 6620 3083 9703
*
SLC: Scheduled Line Capacity
Table 5 Expected Section Loading and Metro Capacity in the year 2036 (For morning peak hour)
Section load Total

Additional SLC* proposed in
estimated in 2036 Estimated
Station Section load 2036 according
according to Section load
due to TOD to DPR
DPR for 2036
From To a b C = a+b d
Azad Nagar DN Nagar 4285 2397 6682 23560

DN Nagar Azad Nagar 3350 1874 5224 23560
DN Nagar Versova 415 232 647 23560
Versova DN Nagar 430 241 671 23560
Total 8480 4743 13223
*
SLC: Scheduled Line Capacity
Table 4 and Table 5 above show that though the section loading is increasing due to TOD, the capacity planned
for metro is satisfactory. However, metro capacity planned need not be altered, but due to increase in ridership, number
of people boarding and alighting at station will increase. Hence, it is necessary to check whether the station dwell time
provided is sufficient for boarding and alighting of people after increased ridership. Dwell time provided presently
and the same required after proposed development has been calculated in the Table 6 given below.
Table 6 Dwell Time and Boarding-Alighting Capacity
During Peak Hour in 2036
Capacity of
Boarding and Boarding and Boarding and Capacity of
Boarding and Boarding and
Alighting Alighting Alighting Boarding and
Alighting due Total alighting with
according to towards Azad towards alighting with 30
to TOD 40 Sec Dwell
DPR Nagar Versova Sec Dwell time
time
DN
5847 5364 11211 10000 1211 7235 10017
Nagar
In the above calculations dwell time is split into two components, Door opening and closing time and passenger
loading and unloading time. Door opening and closing time is together taken as 4 seconds. Capacity of boarding and
alighting in one hour with given dwell time can be calculated using Equation 1 and Equation 2 given below.
$%&$'()
C = ∗ s ∗ dr ∗ c ∗ f (1)
*
Where,
C= Boarding and alighting capacity (Peak Hour)

dt = Dwell Time( seconds)
do-c = Door opening closing time ( seconds)
p = Passenger flow per sec per stream
s = Number of streams per door
dr = Number of doors per coach
c = Number of coach per train
f = Number of trains per hour (frequency)
In Equation 1,
2
𝑓𝑓 = ∗ 60 (2)
3
h= Headway in minutes.
For planning year 2036, dwell time planned is 30 seconds according to DPR. Hence planned boarding and alighting
capacity during peak hour in 2036 can be calculated as follows:
Substituting dt = 30 seconds in Equation 1 and rest of the parameters as follows:
do-c = 4 seconds
p = 2.3 passengers per seconds per stream (Transit Capacity and Quatlity of Service Manual, 2nd Edition)
s = 2, dr = 4, c = 4,f= (1/3)*60 = 20 trains per hour (Peak period frequency)
Where, h = 3 minutes (in 2036 planned as per DPR)
Hence, C = 7235 passengers per hour
This planned boarding and alighting capacity is less than expected boardings and alightings expected during peak hour
peak direction in 2036 i.e. 10,000 passengers per hour (Table 4). Hence increasing the dwell time to 40 seconds,
Capacity is recalculated using equation 1.
Keeping other parameters same as above and dt = 40 seconds;
C = 10,017 Passengers per hour > 10,000 passengers per hour (demand during peak hour peak direction)
Hence to serve the peak hour demand it is required to increase the dwell time to 40 seconds in horizon year 2036. If
the dwell time is increased to 40 seconds, total 2.5 minutes time will increase in one hour which is still less than
headway planned i.e. 3 minutes hence the frequency will not be affected.
8.4. Ancillary impacts
TOD causes the shift to the rail based transport systems due to which congestion on roads will decrease and will
result in saving in time of daily commuters. Ultimately taking into account value of time, this saving in time will result
in savings in money. Reduction in road congestion will have positive impact on environmental parameters like fuel
consumption and ultimately will reduce the harmful emissions. These indirect impacts of TOD are calculated in
following sections.
7.4.1 Fuel Consumption

For quantifying amount of fuel saved due to proposed development, two scenarios are considered. One is, fuel
consumption when normal development is taking place in study area and not oriented to transit i.e. road based transport
modes are increasing with development naturally without any further increase in share of transit. Second scenario is
fuel consumption when development within study area is transit oriented because of which people are encouraged to
use transit system. Fuel consumption is calculated as per the formula specified by Papacostas and Prevedouros (2000).
To calculate the fuel consumption ‘F’ for single vehicular trip in urban traffic Equation 3 given below is used.
𝐹𝐹 = 𝑘𝑘2 ∗ 𝐷𝐷 + 𝑘𝑘: ∗ 𝑇𝑇 (3)
Where,
F = fuel consumption, in Gallons per vehicular trip
k1 = Calibration constant, in Gallon/ Veh-mi = 0.0326 Gallon/Veh-mi
k2 = Calibration constant, in Gallon/ Hours = 0.746 Gallon/ Hours
D = Trip Length, in Miles

T = Travel time, in Hours
During morning peak period in 2036 total fuel consumption will be 17,317 gallons i.e. 78,792 Liters per day if
share of rail based mode is considered to remain same as that of base year 2015. However, during morning peak period
in 2036 total fuel consumption will be around 400 gallons i.e. 1816 liters per day if share of rail based mode is
considered to increase with the increase in population and employment. Hence it is observed that due to TOD; 76,976
liters of fuel will be saved during morning peak period per day as it will reduce number of vehicles on roads.
7.4.2 Saving in Travel Time and Value of Time

The value of travel time is a critical factor in evaluating the benefits of transportation infrastructure investment and
rulemaking initiatives. Reduction of delay in passenger or freight transportation is a major purpose of investments,
and rules to enhance safety sometimes include provisions that slow down travel. The total travel time costs are the
product of time spent in travelling multiplied by unit cost (Small et al. 2005).
In present study, TOD will help in saving travel time of commuters. This saving in travel time can be converted
into saving in money by using value of time of commuters travelling by different modes. For this study value of time
of people using different transport modes is obtained from DPR of Mumbai Metro Line – I and that value is projected
for the year 2036 using inflation rate obtained from Trading Economics. Hence savings in money due to saving in
travel time during morning peak period in study area are calculated in Table 7 below.
Table 7 Saving in travel time and money in the year 2036
Travel Time (Min) Travel Value of Rs. Total Rs. Saved

Value of No. of
Time time * Saved during morning
time * passenger**
Mode Do nothing TOD saved (DPR per trip peak
(2036 ) (2036)
(Min) 2005) (2036) period(2036)
g=
a b c d = b-c e f=e*(1+r)30 h i=g*h
f*(c/60)
Auto 152 18 134 21.64 94 209 282 58864
Taxi 152 17 135 23.74 103 231 0 0
2W 152 16 136 22.57 98 221 662 146018
Car 152 17 135 36.58 158 356 247 87773
Bus 152 20 132 14.34 62 137 419 57313
Train 152 54 98 14.34 62 101 9422 953740
Metro 152 21 131 14.34 62 135 9063 1226389
∑ 2530098
*
Value of time in Rupees per passenger per Hour
**
Number of passengers during morning peak period in study area
In above Table 7, inflation rate r= 5.14 % (Trading Economics)
Hence it can be concluded that due to transit oriented development total RS. 25,30,098 (38858.89 US dollar †) can
be saved during morning peak period per day in the planning year 2036. Similarly money saved during intermediate
years is also calculated by same method. Due to transit oriented development total RS. 16,09,916 (24726.14 US dollar)
, RS. 24,59, 883(37780.48 US dollar) and RS. 28,22,648 (43352.06 US dollar) can be saved during morning peak
period per day in the years 2031,2026 and 2021 respectively.
Therefore, it can be concluded that because of saving in travel time, there is a large amount of economic gain at
aggregate level. Travel time is saved by people who are travelling by road based transport mode due to reduction in
†
1 US dollar (USD) = 63.51 Indian Rupees (INR) as dated on 25th May 2015
congestion in case of TOD as compared to do nothing condition. At the same time people who are shifting to local
train as well metro are also saving time. Hence on an average all the commuters will get economic benefits of reduction
in travel time.
As seen in above 7.2, 7.3 and 7.4 section, development proposed in this study will have overall positive impact on
road as well metro system. Also it is economically and environmentally beneficial, But it also necessary to check the
financial feasibility for implementing this redevelopment. The proposed development is within brown field where
redevelopment of existing structures is required to achieve transit oriented development and to carry out this
redevelopment government authority will hire developers. Hence it is important to know the financial returns from
this project to encourage government and developers to take up this project, which are calculated in next section.
9. Financial Feasibility
Comprehensive redevelopment as proposed in this study would involve economic costs but will also provide
benefits. Hence, a cost-benefit analysis has been carried out taking into account interests of various stakeholders such
as plot owners, builder-developers, Municipal Corporation and the State Government. These calculations are made as
per the rates specified in Ready Reckoner 2014. The developers have to bear construction cost. In addition to this,
they have to pay development charges and premium on additional FSI to the government. The rate of premium amount
per m2 will be 60% of the land value of that particular plot for residential use and 100% for commercial use, as per
DPR for Mumbai (Regulation 35(4)).Moreover, the proposed project is in brown field, redevelopment of existing
structure is required for which developers will pay a rent to existing occupants for the construction period of average
24 months. The calculations of expenses required for redevelopment are shown in Table 8 below.
Table 8 Expected expenses and financial returns from redevelopment proposal for DN Nagar Station
Cost in Rs. Cost in Earning for Earning for

Category Area in sq. m
per sq.m Rs. crore BMC GOM
Rs. crore Rs. crore
Construction Residential 744709 24000 1787

cost
Commercial 846044 24000 2031
Land 318129 42.85 1 1

Residential
Development Construction 744709 1714 128 128
charges Land 229544 85.7 2 2
Commercial
Construction 846044 3428 290 290
Residential 616716 51420 3171 1586 1586

Purchase of
additional FSI
Commercial 445111 85700 3815 1907 1907
Calculation of rent to be paid to the existing occupants for the construction period of average 24 months
Residential 526110 10000 526
commercial 75046 15000 113
Total cost of project for developers 11863 3914 3493

As calculated in Table 8, developers will have to spend around RS. 11863 Crores (1867.89 Million US dollar) on
redevelopment of area within TIA of DN Nagar metro station. Cost of additional FSI is proposed to be divided equally
between Municipal Corporation and the Government of Maharashtra. Hence State Government and Municipal
Corporation of the city would get revenue of RS.3493 Crores (550 Million US dollar) each for their share in the sale
of FSI. This redevelopment will also be beneficial for developers, as they will earn RS. 11443 Crore (1801.76 Million
US dollar), RS. 5794 Crores (912 Million US dollar) and RS. 803 Crores (126 Million US dollar) in case of high,
medium and low rates respectively from the sale of developed structures. The calculations for the financial returns
obtained by developers are shown in Table 9 below.
Table 9 Expected revenue for developers with respect to 2014 Ready Reckoner rates
Total sale Amount spent for

Estimated Saleable Rate Per Sale in Surplus in
Category in Rs. development
returns area(sq.m) Sq. m Rs. Crores Rs. Crore
Crores In Rs. Crores
High Residential 218599 197000 4306
23296 11863 11433
Commercial 770998 246300 18990
Medium Residential 218599 160900 3517
17657 11863 5794
Commercial 770998 183400 14140
Low Residential 218599 110700 2420
12666 11863 803
Commercial 770998 132900 10247
The above rates are calculated as per the base year prices and it is assumed that in planning year as land and property
rates will increase, selling prices will also increase in the same proportions and hence the earnings will be
approximately same. Hence, TOD should be promoted by government authorities positively as well as developers will
be interested to take up such projects.
10. Conclusion and Discussion
Concept of TOD is highly gaining boost in India as it is being promoted as one of the sustainable planning tool
to decongest the areas in Indian metro cities. Another major reason behind the popularity of TOD in developing
countries like India is new METRO projects being constructed in various metropolitan cities. However, it is of utter
importance to consider the impact of TOD on various existing infrastructure facilities like roadways as well as on
transit itself, well before executing TOD. While forming a policy for TOD, it is necessary to decide the vertical
development, which will be permitted by that policy in the form of FSI. Limiting the vertical development is important
while planning of TOD because it is also necessary to maintain designed LOS for roads as well as METRO even if
the density is increased.
Hence, this study highlights the ability of TOD to be considered as one of the sustainable planning tool to
decongest the areas in Indian metro cities by developing a methodology to evaluate impact of TOD before its
implementation. DN Nagar Metro station on Mumbai Metro Line -1 is considered as a pilot study area where FSI is
proposed to increase from 1 to 4 within TIA i.e. area within 500 metres radius to achieve TOD. Because of this, the
employment opportunities will be nine times the existing and population will be doubled by the year 2036. However,
it is also necessary to check whether present infrastructure in study area will be able to cater this increased demand.
Moreover, due to development being oriented to transit, mode share may change by the planning year 2036 as share
of METRO may increase. Thus, it is also important to find the increase in ridership of metro due to TOD and check
the adequacy of metro services planned in that year.
Impact analysis carried out using the methodology proposed in this study to predict mode choice behaviour of
people shows that even though density is increased within TIA, the congestion on roads will not be increased. This is
because development being within walking distance from transit, people will easily shift to transit and hence the
designed LOS can be maintained on roads. Moreover, this result is possible only when proposed vertical development
is also limited based on infrastructure facilities available or possible in area under study. As seen in present study, in
case of TIA of DN Nagar station if the FSI is increased to four, it is possible to satisfy increased demand with existing
facilities. However if the FSI is increased further there may be a need of increasing the existing facilities such as road
widening and increased metro frequencies. This can be evaluated by proposed methodology of evaluation of impact
of TOD suggested in this paper. Further, this methodology to analyze and quantify impact of TOD is expected to
encourage adoption of TOD as a strategy for the development along existing transit lines in Indian cities.
The vertical development within TIA will result in not only increased population and employment but it will also
have positive impacts on road infrastructure as well as METRO rail systems. TOD thus proves to be an effective tool
to increase the productivity of land near existing transit line. TOD will encourage people to use transit as the transit
accessibility increases leading to sustainable transport system. Hence, TOD results into efficient use of existing
roadway facilities within TIA as additional trips can be accommodated at current LOS. In addition to this,
environmental damages will be reduced due to reduction in fuel consumption that will save natural resources as well
as money and economic benefits are obtained due to saving in travel time. This can help further to achieve
sustainability at city level. Lastly, the various stakeholders such as plot owners, builder-developers, Municipal
Corporation and the State Government responsible for implementing TOD will also be benefited substantially. The
revenue obtained by government authorities by implementing TOD can further be invested in for improving and
implementing new public transport projects and infrastructure facilities supporting such projects.
11. Contribution of Study
Findings of this study show that TOD can be used as a tool for achieving sustainable development in important
metropolitan cities of developing country like India. The study proposes a simple yet scientific methodology to find
the impact of TOD on LOS of existing infrastructure facilities like roadways and transit systems before planning and
implementing TOD. This will help to take decision regarding requirement of improvements in present infrastructure
facilities as well as transit services. Moreover, results obtained from impact analysis of TOD will be helpful to
determine threshold values of vertical development possible in terms of FSI. This threshold value is based on capacity
of infrastructure and transit to support the development. The limiting value for development will be supportive while
planning and implementing TOD in Indian cities or while formulating TOD policies.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA), Mumbai for
providing financial support for carrying out the classified volume count survey required for this study. Authors are
also thankful to MMRDA and its officials for providing required documents for this study regarding land use,
population and employment.
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“Transit Oriented Development and Its Impact on Level of Service

2352-1465 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Inventory Data: Study area delineation Survey data

Summary and conclusion

Figure 1 Research methodology

5. Study Area Delineation

6.1. Land use survey

6.2. Traffic volume count survey

Zone R3: Zone R2:

8.1. Mode choice model

Table 1 Original utility equations as per CTS for MMR

Mode Utility equation

Figure 5 Procedure followed to refine utility functions

Table 2 Refined Utility Equations

Mode Utility Equations

8.2. Prediction of mode choice behavior

V/C ratio of roads in base year

V/C ratio of roads in planning year

Alter travel time of modes based on new

V/C of road using new modal split

Accept modal split obtained for planning year

Modal share for year 2015

Modal Share (2021) Modal Share (2026)

30% 33% 16%

Modal Share (2031) Modal Share (2036) 0.6%

Figure 7 Modal split for the horizon and planning years

Table 3 V/C ratios of roads with and without TOD

Roads\ Year 2015 2021 2026 2031 2036

8.3. Impact on METRO services

20000 PHPDT Without TOD

PHPDT with TOD

Section load estimated Additional Total Estimated SLC* proposed in 2026

Section load Total

Azad Nagar DN Nagar 4285 2397 6682 23560

Table 6 Dwell Time and Boarding-Alighting Capacity

During Peak Hour in 2036

C= Boarding and alighting capacity (Peak Hour)

8.4. Ancillary impacts

7.4.1 Fuel Consumption

D = Trip Length, in Miles

7.4.2 Saving in Travel Time and Value of Time

Table 7 Saving in travel time and money in the year 2036

Travel Time (Min) Travel Value of Rs. Total Rs. Saved

Cost in Rs. Cost in Earning for Earning for

Construction Residential 744709 24000 1787

Land 318129 42.85 1 1

Residential 616716 51420 3171 1586 1586

commercial 75046 15000 113

Total cost of project for developers 11863 3914 3493

Total sale Amount spent for

10. Conclusion and Discussion

11. Contribution of Study

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