FLOOD REPORT FOR MANITOBA

May 19, 2011

Flood Warning*: -The Assiniboine River at all points downstream of the

Shellmouth Dam
-Pipestone Creek, all reaches, Oak Lake and Plum Lakes, Plum
Creek to the Souris River (including the Town of Souris)
-The Qu`Appelle River in St-Lazare area

High Water Advisory -All major lakes in Manitoba

-The Souris River from Melita and all downstream reaches

Summary
• An unstable weather system is developing in North Dakota and Montana and may bring
between 20-40 mm of precipitation to the upper portion of the Souris River basin.
Forecasters are determining the impacts of this precipitation event on Souris River water
levels.

• Most rivers in southern Manitoba have crested and are now receding as illustrated in the
table below at a number of selected locations. Due to significant precipitation events,
some rivers reached more than one crest, such as the Whitemud River near Keyes
which crested April 14 and reached near crest a few days earlier, and the Turtle River
which crested April 12, and experienced two slightly smaller crests in mid-May.

Table 1. Change in water levels since crest date for various streams in Manitoba.
Today’s Drop Since Date of
River and location
Measurement Crest (ft) Crest
Assiniboine River at Miniota 1246.42 0.94 May 13
Assiniboine River at Brandon 1st St. 1181.28 1.61 May 15
Pembina River at La Riviere 1291.21 4.73 April 16
1
Red River at James Ave in Winnipeg 17.76 1.84 May 41
Red River at Emerson 783.80 6.49 April 24
Roseau River at Dominion City 796.85 2.12 April 22
Souris River at Melita 1409.66 1.98 April 22
2
Turtle River at Laurier 913.02 9.17 April 12
Little Saskatchewan River at Minnedosa 1719.60 0.60 May 11
Saskatchewan River at Ralls Island3 852.77 3.46 April 23
2
Whitemud River at Keyes 947.66 7.14 April 14
1
Open water crest. Ice influenced peak 20.80 ft on April 7th
2
more than one crest
3
Currently, water levels on the Saskatchewan River are increasing
 • Flows into the Portage Reservoir crested twice, once on May 14 at 52,300 cfs and again
on May 18th at 52,000 cfs. Flows are forecast to subside by approximately 1,000 cfs per
day over the next few days.

Controlled Release from the Assiniboine River

• Flows out of the controlled release will be maintained at around 400 cfs today – pending
conditions of the Assiniboine River dikes and Portage Diversion channel. Flows from the
release are generally pooling in an area east of mile road 33W, then flowing into the Elm
River. As of this morning, the inundated area covered an area of 3.42 square kilometres.
Flows will travel down the Elm River with some localized flooding in adjacent areas.

• A recent condition assessment completed on the Assiniboine River dikes indicates that
they are able to sustain flows at 18,000 cfs with ongoing repairs. Water is overtopping
the failsafe area of the west dike along the Portage Diversion channel. All dikes along
the Assiniboine River and Portage Diversion are undergoing continual monitoring and
assessment.

Lakes

• Provincial staff will be hosting meetings with representatives from municipalities, First
Nations and Northern Affairs communities located around Lake Manitoba and Lake St.
Martin. Maps illustrating forecasted peak lake levels will be on hand to enable
representatives to make necessary flood preparations. Maps indicate both 2011
forecasted peak water levels and water levels that would occur with a sustained 60
km/hr wind. Meetings have been organized with municipal officials from the rural
municipalities of Alonsa, Grahamdale and Siglunes on May 20th. More meetings will be
coordinated within the next few days.

• During high winds, dikes and individual properties will be impacted by wave action
differently. There are a number of factors that will change the way wind and the
resulting wave action impacts properties and dikes, including: the slope of the shore, the
distance from the water, obstructions that may buffer waves (roads, vegetation, etc.), the
slope and height of flood protection dikes, and the depth of standing water against the
dike.

• Waves will generally be higher and have more energy if the beach is shorter and has a
greater slope. Waves will generally be lower and have less energy if homes are located
far from the normal lake edge, have a gently sloping beach or the waves are travelling
over flooded vegetation or other obstructions. Homes with a gently sloping beach could
experience waves as high as 3 ft.

• The impact of waves on dikes is dependent on the depth of standing water against the
dike and the slope of the dike. With a sustained 60 km/hr offshore wind:
o Sandbag dikes close to the water’s edge may experience waves as high as 3 ft.
o Sandbag dikes with water reaching the base of dike may experience waves as
high as 4 ft.
o Sandbag dikes with water reaching part way up the dike are likely to experience
waves as high as 7 ft.
 o Clay dikes are generally built with a gentler (5:1) slope when compared to the
slope of sandbag dikes (1:2), dissipating the energy of the wave and reducing
wave height.

• Wave uprush is not illustrated on the inundation maps due to the site-specific
circumstances of each property.

• Dauphin Lake has reached a record water level and is forecast to continue rising.

• Oak Lake continues to rise due to high inflows from the Pipestone Creek. Water
continues to overtop dikes by as much as 2 ft in some places. Plum Lake, located
downstream of Oak Lake, is also experiencing high lake levels and continues to
contribute high flows to Plum Creek. See Table 2 for lake levels for May 19, 2011.
Table 2. May 19, 2011 Lake levels.
Level1 Change from Last Date of Last
Lake
(feet) Reading (feet) Reading
Lake Manitoba 814.78 +0.08 May 18
Lake St. Martin 804.23 +0.01 May 18
Lake Winnipeg 716.35 +0.05 May 18
2
Lake Pineimuta 806.86 +0.43 May 18
Dauphin Lake 859.44 +0.01 May 18
Oak Lake 1412.2 -0.07 May 18
North Shoal Lake 860.49 -0.01 May 16
East Shoal Lake 860.91 0 May 16
West Shoal Lake 860.85 0 May 16
Red Deer Lake 864.653 - May 17
1
wind-effect eliminated
2
reading may be influenced by wind
3
reading from May 17

• The forecasted peak for Lake Manitoba is 815.8 ft. The forecasted peak for Lake St.
Martin is 805.2 ft.

• Due to high water levels, Manitoba Water Stewardship has created inundation maps
illustrating the forecasted high water levels for all areas around Lake Manitoba, Lake St.
Martin, and is developing maps for the south basin of Lake Winnipeg and for Dauphin
Lake.

• A High Water Advisory is in effect for all major lakes in Manitoba.

Assiniboine River

• Flows have crested at all points on the Assiniboine River in Manitoba.

• Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir are 1413.70 ft, decreasing 0.17 ft since
yesterday. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 8,300 cfs, and outflow is 9,530 cfs
 today. The Shellmouth Reservoir dam will be operated to keep outflows around or
below 10,000 cfs today and for the next few days.

• Water levels on the Assiniboine River at the 1st Street Bridge in Brandon are 1181.28 ft,
decreasing 0.40 ft since yesterday. Flows at the 1st Street Bridge in Brandon are 32,200
cfs, measured this morning. It is estimated that flows on the Assiniboine River at
Brandon will remain above 20,000 cfs until the end of the month.

• Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 51,450 cfs. Flows in the Portage Diversion
channel at noon today are at 33,160 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River at the Portage
Reservoir control gates are 18,290 cfs.

• Water levels in the Baie St. Paul area are 799.90 ft, a decrease of 0.01 ft since
yesterday.

• The Flood Warning for the Qu`Appelle River in the St-Lazare area remains in effect.

• The Flood Warning for the Assiniboine River at all points downstream of the Shellmouth
dam remains in effect.

• See the Assiniboine River flood sheet for detailed flows and water level elevations.

Red River and Floodway Operations

• The north entrance at St. Adolphe remains closed. The south entrance is open.

• Water levels just upstream of the Red River Floodway inlet decreased 0.44 ft since
yesterday to 760.49 ft, with flows of 54,550 cfs. Flows in the floodway channel are
approximately 22,400 cfs. Red River flows upstream of the floodway inlet continue to
decrease by about 2,000 cfs per day.

• Water levels on the Red River at James Avenue in Winnipeg have decreased 0.14 ft
since yesterday to 17.76 ft. Flows at James Avenue this morning were approximately
51,000 cfs.

• See the Red River flood sheet for detailed flows and water level elevations.

Souris River

• Water levels at Melita are 1409.66 ft today, decreasing by 0.28 ft since yesterday. The
Flood Warning for the Souris River at Melita and all downstream reaches has been
downgraded to a High Water Advisory.

• Water levels on Plum Creek have decreased to 1376.86 ft today. These high flows will
continue and be sustained for a significant period of time due to the high levels of the
Plum and Oak Lakes.
 • A Flood Warning for all reaches of Pipestone Creek and downstream into the Oak and
Plum Lake system, then on Plum Creek to the Souris River including the Town of Souris
remains in effect.

• Water levels on the Souris River at Wawanesa decreased 0.06 ft since yesterday to
1155.87 ft today.

• Please see the Souris River flood sheet for detailed flows and elevations.

*Definitions

Flood Warning: A flood warning is issued when river levels are exceeding bankfull and a flood is
occurring or imminent.

Flood Watch: A flood watch is issued when river levels are approaching bankfull stage and are likely to
overflow.

High Water Advisory: A high water advisory is issued when a heavy storm or high flows are expected
and may cause water levels to rise but not necessarily exceed bankfull.