MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF UKRAINE

SUMY STATE UNIVERSITY

ACADEMIC AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS TECHNOLOGIES

“UAB”
Department of International Economic Relations
 

ANALYTICAL REPORT
on the discipline “International conflicts and negotiation”
on the topic “Analysis of Russia-Ukraine conflict”

 
Student (group МЕ-72а.ан) _____________ T.A. Perederii

    
Supervisor
Ph.D in Economics,
Senior Lecturer of International
Economic Relations Department _____________ T.O. Kurbatova
 
 

Sumy – 2020
 INTRODUCTION

For the last four decades security in Europe has been burdened by armed
violence accompanying the disintegration of a number of states in the Eastern
Mediterranean, Western Balkans and the territory of the former Soviet Union.
They have resulted in the creation of many new internationally recognised states,
unrecognised state-like entities and unresolved ‘frozen’ conflicts. A probable
newcomer to the last type appeared in spring 2014 – the Ukrainian-Russian
conflict over Crimea. Most of the international community does not recognise its
annexation by Russia and considers that Crimea still belongs to Ukraine. The
annexation and related attempted secessions and armed hostilities in Eastern
Ukraine have worsened the West’s relations with Russia and the general political
climate in the Euro-Atlantic area. The political and legal stand-off between
Ukraine and Russia has created an additional ‘frozen’ conflict in Europe.
Russo-Ukrainian conflict is a series of military actions that started in
February 2014 and continues into 2020, including in the Crimean peninsula,
the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine and related activities in other locations.
During the Euromaidan protests and the fall of Ukrainian president Viktor
Yanukovych, Russian soldiers without insignias took control of strategic positions
and infrastructure within the Ukrainian territory of Crimea. On 1 March 2014
the Federation Council of the Russian Federation unanimously adopted a
resolution on petition of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin to use military
force on territory of Ukraine.
In November 2014, the Ukrainian military reported intensive movement
of troops and equipment from Russia into the separatist-controlled parts of eastern
Ukraine. The Associated Press reported 80 unmarked military vehicles on the
move in rebel-controlled areas. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in
Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission observed convoys of heavy weapons
and tanks in DPR-controlled territory without insignia. OSCE monitors further
stated they observed vehicles transporting ammunition and soldiers' dead
bodies crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border under the guise of humanitarian
aid convoys. As of early August 2015, OSCE observed over 21 such vehicles
marked with the Russian military code for soldiers killed in action. According
to The Moscow Times, Russia has tried to intimidate and silence human rights
workers discussing Russian soldiers' deaths in the conflict. OSCE repeatedly
reported that its observers were denied access to the areas controlled by "combined
Russian-separatist forces".
The majority of members of the international community and organizations
such as Amnesty International have condemned Russia for its actions in post-
revolutionary Ukraine, accusing it of breaking international law and violating
Ukrainian sovereignty. Many countries implemented economic sanctions against
Russia, Russian individuals or companies – to which Russia responded in kind.
Currently, 7% of Ukraine's territory is under occupation.
Political and economic sanctions have been imposed in response to Russia's
aggression against Ukraine, so only the cessation of Russia's armed aggression
against Ukraine and the restoration of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity
can be grounds for their lifting. In other circumstances, Russia will continue its
aggression, spreading it to other countries in the region.
So, the relevance of the analytical report of Russia-Ukraine conflict a is
indisputable. All this led to the choice of the methods, its content and structure of
analysis.
 I. ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT’S PROFILE

1. TIMELINE

20.02. 27.02. 1.03.2 16.03. 12.04. 13.04. 11.05. 13.06. 26.05.

2014 2014 014 2014 2019 2014 2014 2014 2014

17.07. 7.08. 5.09. 24.05. 17.01. 24.02. 29.01. 24.04. 07.09.

2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2017 2018 2019

20.02.2014- Shooting of protesters on Independence Square in Kyiv, which took

place on orders and under the leadership of representatives of the Russian FSB.

27.02.2014-The Verkhovna Rada and the Government of the ARC were seized by
armed unknown individuals and Russian flags were erected on the buildings.

1.03. 2014- The first major actions of the "Russian Spring" took place
simultaneously in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Melitopol, Odessa,
Mykolayiv and Kherson.

16. 03. 2014- Russia held an illegitimate referendum in Crimea and immediately
announced its results.

12.04.2019-The emergence of "green men" in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

13.04.2014-The acting President Alexander Turchinov stated that a large-scale

anti-terrorist operation involving the Armed Forces of Ukraine begins in Donbass.

11.05.2014- Holding a referendum of the independence on the LNR and DNR.

13.06. 2014-Ukrainian security forces liberated Mariupol from pro-Russian

militants.

26.05.2014/21.01.2015- Fights for Donetsk airport.

17.07.2014- Malaysian Boeing crash.

7.08.2014- Fights for Ilovaisk.

5.09.2014- Signing of the Minsk agreements.

24.01.2015- The shelling of Mariupol.

17.01.2015-18.02.2015- Fighting in Debaltseve.

15.02.2015- Signing of the Minsk agreements 2.

24.02.2016- Ukrainian troops occupied Shirokine and Avdiivka.

29.01.2017- Large-scale battles began in the area of Avdeevka.

24.11.2017- the Ukrainian army went on the offensive, occupying certain

territories controlled by the LPR and DPR.

24.04.2018-The anti-terrorist operation in Donbass officially ended and Operation

Joint Forces began.

07.09.2019 - Russia and Ukraine swap prisoners captured in the wake of Moscow's
seizure of Crimea and intervention in the Donbass.

2. GEOGRAPHICAL MAPPING OF CONFICT ARENA

 3. ISSUE MATRIX

POLITICAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL SECURITY

1. Distrust of 1.Lack of money 1.Quarrels and 1.Death of
political forces. and contradictions innocent
unemployment. with relatives. civilians.
2.Сatalysis of
political processes in 2.Expenditures 2.Destruction 2.Terror and
Ukraine. on the military houses, intimidation of
Local level sector. schools or citizens of the
3. Self-proclaimed hospitals. occupied
Russian territories.
administrations in 3.Pseudo-
eastern public 3.Increasing the
Ukraine(DNR&LNR organizations number of crime
).
1.Russia's aggression 1.Energy 1.Russian 1.Loss of state
was aimed at blockade. information territories.
destroying Ukraine 2.The economy propaganda.
as an independent 2.Distrust 2.Arms control.
of Donbass is
National state among
completely residents. 3.Separatists.
level destroyed. 3.The
3.Falling language issue
national is acute.
currency
4.Poverty.
1.Violation of norms 1.Trade and 1.Absence of 1.Issues of
and principles of economic consensus terrorism.
international law. about the
pressure between future.
2.Tensions in Russia and other 2.War in the
Russia’s relations countries. 2.Social center of
with both the United disorganizatio Europe.
Internationa States and Europe. n
l level 3.Reformatting the 3.2 million
geopolitical refugees from
landscape of the Ukraine.
whole of Europe.
4.High level
of youth
unemploymen
t.
 II. ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT’S CAUSES

1. CONFLICT TREE

CAUSES:
 Russia's aimed to destroy the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.
 The largest shale gas deposits in Europe are located on the territory of
Donetsk region.
 To hinder Ukraine's integration into the EU

CORE PROBLEMS:
 Struggle for territory.
 Propaganda and misinformation of Russian mass media.
 Separatism among the population.
 Russia's failure to comply with international treaties and agreements.

EFFECTS:
 Annexation of the Crimea,
 Loss of control over Ukrainian territories.
  Proclamation of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk republics
 Russia's pressure on energy supplies to Ukraine.
 Increasing trade and economic pressure on Ukraine from Russia's side.
 Russia's non-compliance with international treaties and agreements on
maintaining international security.
 Lack of effectiveness of international security institutions.

2. CONFLICT PILLARS

Interference of the Russian Federation in the internal affairs of Ukraine

Pro-russian policy aimed at destroying the integrity of the state

CONFLICT

Self-proclaimed states

Penetration of organized crime into government structures

Instability of the political system and inability to govern the

territory where violence, organized crime, etc. may prevail

Russia's failure to comply with international treaties and

agreements.
 III. ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT’S ACTORS

1. INVENTORY OF ACTORS

AREA OF INFLUENCE OR RELEVANCE

Actors
Local level National level International level
Armed Forces of 
Ukraine
The Armed Forces of 
the Russian
Federation
Russian Ground 
Forces
National Guard 
Russian Navy 
National government 
Ukrainian Volunteer 
Army
 Federal Security 
Service of the Russian
Federation
Security Service of 
Ukraine «Alpha»
LNR; DNR 

Local population

Military border 
guards

USA, France, 
Germany, Belarus
Church 
Volunteer formations 
Mass Media 
OSCE 
EU 
UN 
NATO 
PACE 
Republic of Crimea 

2. PYRAMID

Top actors: Armed Forces of

Ukraine, Armed Forces of RF,
political leaders of states

Mid-range actors: Church, Mass

Media, OSCE, EU, the USA,
France, Germany, Belarus

Grassroots actors: Civil society,

volunteer leaders, councilors,
diplomats, detachment commanders

III. ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT’S DYNAMICS

 1. ISSUES SYNERGIES DIAGRAM

Issue 1 Issue4 Issue9 Issue3 Issue5 Issue7 Issue2 Issue6 Issue8

1) Euromaidan over non-signing of the EU integration agreement.

2) Russian desire stop Ukraine's progress on the way of European integration,
Euro-Atlantic integration.
3) The desire of Russian leader to prevent the spreading of democracy on the
territory of Ukraine.
4) The largest shale gas deposits in Europe are located on the territory of
Donetsk region.
5) Instability of the political system and inability to govern the territory where
violence, organized crime.
6) Russia has aimed to destroy the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.
7) Lack of effectiveness of international security institutions.
8) Pro-Russian policy aimed at destroying the integrity of the state, lying to the
population and providing false information on the media.

2. SCENARIO-BUILDING

DRIVERS ASSUMPTIONS SCENARIOS

 1) The parties fail to achieve a clear
victory; episodic armed clashes
continue;
2) The parties agree on an
Preservation of “the intermediate option for a limited
status quo ” peacekeeping operation
3) Russia agrees to implement a
comprehensive plan under the
Minsk agreements
1) Mobilization of the population 1) The victory of pro-Russian
for the protection of the state,
greater solidarity of society
2) Strengthening Ukraine's position 2) Ukraine’s strong attachment
in negotiations with international
partners
Russian offensive 3) Russia's reputational losses and,
as a result, possible tightening of
sanctions
UN peacekeeping 1)“Transitional administration
mission format” with full control over the
ORDLO to the Special Representative
of the UN Secretary-General
2) “Supervised transition format”,
according to which the Mission and
Ukraine will jointly decide on all key
political and administrative issues in
the ORDLO
Ukraine's 1) Discrediting the Ukrainian
withdrawal from the government in the South and East of
Ukraine
Minsk talks.
2) Deteriorating relations with the
West, especially with Germany and
France
3) The lifting of EU sanctions against
Russia, "tied" to the Minsk
1) A certain public consensus has
been formed on the current
situation
2) The course for NATO and the
EU is maintained
3) Sanctions against Russia are
likely to continue
4) Russia ceases armed conflict,
agrees to create security zones
and exchange prisoners;
forces in the presidential and /
or parliamentary elections
(through political, economic,
energy, humanitarian
instruments of influence) to
Russia’s political course;
3) Partial or complete loss of
Ukraine's sovereignty in the
event of inability to repel the
offensive
4) Significant human losses
5) Significant financial and
economic damage
1) Certain threats to Ukraine, as
Russia will try to control the
work of peacekeepers at the
level of the UN Security
Council.
2) Ukraine will be able to start the
process of reintegration of
Donbass and pay more attention
to European and Euro-Atlantic
integration;
1) Restarting the negotiation
process so that it includes not
only the Donbass issue, but also
the Crimea
2) Attracting new international
actors
3) Mobilization of the part of the
society that was skeptical about
resolving the conflict on the basis
 agreements
4) Unpredictable reaction of the
Russian Federation (in particular,
possible moderate escalation)
5) New peace agreements may be
worse for Ukraine given the
unfavorable international situation
for Kyiv
1)The most painful sanctions against
Russia will be lifted
2) Pressure on Ukraine to implement
the Minsk agreements by the
international community will intensify
3)Generations will grow up in the
Freezing the conflict occupied territories that will lose
touch with Ukraine
4) The creation of a gray area and a
protracted conflict for decades.
CONCLUSIONS
of the Minsk agreements.
1) Normalization of life in eastern
Ukraine and reduction of the flow
of migrants from the region;
2)The zone of frozen conflict
becomes a region of shadow
business and illegal schemes,
with the smuggling of not only
goods but also weapons.
3)Joining NATO and the EU
becomes more impossible
4)Ability to follow the wait and see
approach, which allows you to
wait for better international and
domestic conditions for
settlement.
 The armed Russia-Ukraine conflict threatens the stability of the world order.
The internationalization of this conflict may become large-scale a European war in
which there will be no winner. Further escalation of the armed conflict may lead to
new ones shocks in Ukraine and the crisis of its statehood. That is why those who
believe that are right there is no and cannot be a military solution to this conflict. A
call to the political conflict resolution is in the documents and statements of the
EU, PACE, representatives NATO and the OSCE, the leaders of the states that
signed the Budapest Memorandum, all partners countries of Ukraine.
Already, the fighting has led to a humanitarian catastrophe: thousands of
victims among the civilian population, more than a million refugees, dozens were
destroyed settlements and infrastructure of the region are being systematically
destroyed economic and social facilities. Hunger, cold, poverty, unemployment,
violence and criminal arbitrariness, fear and the despair of civilians is a new reality
in the Donbas caused by the war. It should be noted that the inefficiency of the
negotiation process on high level caused primarily by the lack of a viable
negotiating framework at the level direct participants in the conflict.
In this critical situation, it is necessary to provide three interrelated
conditions conflict resolution: First, ensure dialogue and negotiation at two levels
simultaneously - national (with the participation of conflicting parties) and
international. Secondly, to organize an international peacekeeping mission that will
guarantee compliance with the terms of the peace achieved for a transitional period
to be determined new peaceful plan. Third, a broad national dialogue on conditions
and prospects ensuring the sovereignty, integrity and unity of the country, local
development democracy based on self-government, strengthening guarantees of

civil rights and freedoms. The war must be stopped. Peace, compromise,
restoration of normal life region and the whole country - these goals can unite all
Ukrainians and stop impending catastrophe.