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• Prior to 1750, global population growth rates • Biological processes affecting fertility
never exceeded 0.5 percent per year, and until include the period of time between puberty
1930, they never surpassed 1 percent per and menopause when women are able to
year. reproduce, while social factors include
marriage patterns, the age at which it is
• In many developed countries, this dramatic considered culturally appropriate for people
growth, which included the post-World War to become sexually active, and the
II baby boom, was attributed to significantly availability and use of birth control devices.
improved health care and a concomitant
reduction in death rates. • Although the global average number of
children per woman is estimated at 2.55 for the
• Population growth rates did not begin to 2005–10 period, this average obscures the
decline until other factors affecting birth rates differences in fertility rates among regions.
emerged, such as the widespread availability
and use of contraceptives and an overall shift • Specifically, fertility rates in the developed
in family planning patterns emphasizing fewer world are often close to replacement levels,
children. while fertility rates in much of the developing
world are much higher.
• In less developed regions, such as
Southeast Asia and parts of Latin America, • During the 2005–10 period, for example, 45 of
we are only now seeing declining growth the 73 countries with fertility levels below 2.1
rates. children per woman are considered more
developed.
• Declining birth rates in most of the world
have led to decreases in the rate of • In contrast, all of the 122 countries with fertility
population growth from 2 percent in 1971 to rates above 2.1 children per woman are
1.3 percent in 1998, to 1.18 percent in located in less developed regions.
2008. • Finally, of the 27 countries with fertility levels
• By 2020, the growth rate is projected to reach that are at or above five children per woman,
below 1 percent per year. 25 are included among the world’s least
developed countries.
• But even at this reduced rate of growth, the
annual population change, or the amount of
Demographic transition alleviate poverty in the developing world is
to control population growth.
• The theory of demographic transition attempts
to account for these regional population • A more recent study of the relationship
differences in economic terms, positing a link between poverty and population growth
between population growth patterns and indicates that high fertility increases poverty
economic developmental stages. by slowing economic growth and “skewing
the distribution of consumption against the
• The “demographic transition,” then, is the
poor.”
“movement of a nation from high population
growth to low population growth, as it develops • The researchers estimate that, had the
economically.” average country in the group of 45 studied
lowered its birth rate by five births per 1,000
• Stage one is made up of pre-industrial
women during the 1980s, as had many
countries with high birth rates and high
Asian countries, poverty would have been
death rates. Death rates are high due to
reduced by a third.
factors such as famine and disease, while
birth rates are high in order to increase the • While population growth and poverty are
chances that children will survive into often linked, it would be a mistake to think
adulthood. Because the death rate almost that population growth leads inevitably to
completely offsets the birth rate, population poverty.
growth is static or low.
• In fact, historically, the reverse has
• In stage two, living conditions, food frequently been true, as population growth
availability, and health care improve, has often been correlated with economic
resulting in a decrease in the death rate; prosperity and population decline with
however, the birth rate remains high, since economic decline
children are viewed as both sources of
labor and caretakers for their aging parents.
Declining death rates and high birth rates • World Population Aging
result in high population growth.
• Population aging, “the process by which
• In stage three, birth rates begin to fall due older individuals become a proportionally
to many factors, including access to larger share of the total population,” began
contraception, wage increases, better in the twentieth century in more developed
education, child employment legislation, countries and has now expanded to the
and other urbanization factors that developing world.
decrease the economic value of children.
• It is an unprecedented global demographic
• Finally, stage four is characterized by both trend that will affect every country in the
low birth rates and low death rates, and twenty-first century, though the pace of
thus by low rates of population growth as change will vary.
well.
• Population aging is the result of declines in
both fertility and mortality.
Population Pressures • In other words, we are both living longer
and having fewer children.
• Population and Poverty
• Today, global life expectancy is
• Many population analysts and social
approximately 66 years, up a remarkable
commentators insist that the best way to
20 years from 46.5 years in 1950–5.
• By 2050, global life expectancy is projected country, while push factors include the flight
to increase by another 10 years to reach 76 from violence, poverty, or oppression.
years.
• The total number of older persons living on
• Urbanization
the planet tripled between 1950 and 2000
and is projected to triple again by 2050. • Since the beginning of the twentieth
century, the largest migration flows have
• However, by 2050, the proportion of older
been from rural to urban areas.
people in developing regions is projected to
reach 19 percent. • This accelerating urbanization trend began
with the agricultural revolution, which
• Population aging will have many social and
provided sufficient surplus food to sustain
economic implications for societies around
people in towns and cities.
the globe.
• Then, in the late nineteenth century, the
• Social benefits for longer periods of
Industrial Revolution transformed working
time.
and living patterns.
• Older people typically need more
• Millions of people flocked to urban industrial
health services
centers, putting increasing pressure on the
• Increased demands for long-term environment through pollution and
care and increased medical costs. increased rates of consumption.
• More people will be drawing upon • The year 2008 marked the first time in
health and pension funds, human history that more than half of the
world’s population was living in urban
• Funds will be supported by a smaller
areas.
number of contributors.
• By 2050, global urbanization levels are
• A heavier demand on the working
expected to rise to 70 percent.
age population to maintain benefits
for the older population • Many people will live in so-called
megacities, urban areas with more than 10
• Declines in fertility may also result in
million residents.
fewer family members for older
people to turn to for help and support • This dramatically increased trend toward
urbanization has profound implications for
patterns of population growth and
• Migration consumption.
• Migrants are people who have left their • In many urban environments, residents
homes for another. tend to be better educated and more
affluent; they are often in better health and
• Some people migrate within their own thus live longer than rural people.
country, while others leave their home
country altogether. Various push–pull • Although urban residents live on less than 2
factors influence individuals’ decisions to percent of the world’s landmass, they
migrate. consume a disproportionate amount of
resources and contribute disproportionately
• Pull factors, for example, include the to global pollution when compared with their
promise of better living conditions in a new rural counterparts.
• Continued rapid urbanization is likely to transport, and agriculture would increase
exacerbate these consumption and productivity, as well as how economic and
pollution disparities in the near future. medical advances would contribute to
decrease in population growth.
• Consumption
• Costs of increased agricultural production
• Though we still must face region-specific
droughts, famines, and other crises, we • The shift to intensive agricultural production
must also confront the larger issue of the to feed more people has increased our
entire world’s carrying capacity, or the consumption of basic resources, such as
ability of the Earth’s natural environment to energy, land, and water.
sustain the human population.
• Some of our strategies for producing larger
• In the late 1700s and early 1800s, English amounts of food have been particularly
demographer and theorist Thomas Malthus problematic.
was one of the first to highlight the potential
• For example, the so-called Green
problems of population growth and
Revolution of the 1950s (which, despite its
unbridled consumption.
name, actually marked the advent of the
• In his Essay on the Principle of Population large-scale use of chemically based
(1798), Malthus argued that if population agriculture) was an effort by scientists to
growth remained unrestricted, our numbers engineer a limited number of improved
would increase geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, strains of wheat and corn in order to
16 . . . ) while our food supply could only increase food supplies in developing
ever be increased at an arithmetic rate (1, countries.
2, 3, 4, 5 . . . ), thus creating a widening gap
• Initially, this proved to be a great success
between the number of people on the
because these strains yielded much larger
planet and the amount of food available to
crops than had previous grains.
feed them.
• These new strains, however, required much
• In short, he argued that people were poor
more water and fertilizers than the earlier
because there were too many of them and
ones.
not enough resources.
• As more farmers in the developing world
• Although he warned that our inability to
switched to these varieties, they incurred
increase our food supply at the same rate
greater and greater costs, as water grew
as our population would lead to drastic
scarce, and fertilizers, which are derived
levels of political and economic instability,
from declining petroleum oil reserves,
he also suggested that population growth
became more expensive.
would generally be checked by factors such
as famine, disease, and war. • The use of irrigation and fertilizers also
created favorable conditions for the growth
• Malthus’s theories have had a significant
of weeds, which in turn caused farmers to
influence on demographers ever since, and
seek out expensive and toxic herbicides.
his ideas have contributed to growing
concerns about the planet’s carrying • Overall, the Green Revolution proved a
capacity. costly disaster for many poor farmers and it
wreaked massive environmental damage.
• Common criticisms include his failure to
anticipate how advances in technology,
• Consumer culture changes came changes in values from
frugality to fulfillment through spending.
• Buying, selling, and accumulating are so
integrated into people’s lives in the • Today, financial institutions and
developed world that consumer culture may manufacturers, such as automotive
seem to be the natural order of things or the companies, have spread the pattern of
logical way that societies should be debt-based consumption around the world.
organized.
• Many argue that people’s lives, particularly
• However, consumerism is not an innate in the developed world, have been
human trait and many cultures around the dramatically improved by consumer culture
world have discouraged the accumulation and the products it makes available – new
of wealth. machines, medicines, foods, transport,
houses, and information and
• Even in nineteenth-century America,
communication technologies. There are,
moderation and self-denial were dominant
however, important social and
cultural values, and people were expected
environmental costs involved in what and
to save money, purchasing only the
how we consume.
necessities.
• During this period, more than half of the
population lived on farms where they • Global Consumption Patterns
produced much of what they consumed.
• The question “How many people can the
• By the early twentieth century, however, earth sustain?” is inextricably linked to
American culture had changed. resource consumption issues.
• Merchants no longer waited passively for • Although agricultural production and
people to buy goods when they needed exploding population growth rates in the
them; instead, increased attention began to developing world are important concerns,
be paid to marketing and presenting goods so too are the high consumption and waste
in a way that would make people want to rates of the developed world.
buy them, whether they needed them or
• Resource consumption and waste
not.
production rates are about 32 times higher
• Business schools began to emerge at in North America, Western Europe, Japan,
universities around the country, teaching and Australia than they are in the
people the fundamentals of marketing, developing world.
sales, and accounting.
• According to UCLA geography professor
• Governmental agencies, such as the Jared Diamond: “The estimated one billion
Commerce Department, were developed to people who live in developed countries
promote consumption. have a relative per capita consumption rate
of 32.
• The consumer economy was also
advanced by the transformation of laborers • Most of the world’s other 5.5 billion people
into consumers as businesses began constitute the developing world,mwith
increasing workers’ wages. Later, the relative per capita consumption rates below
expansion of credit introduced additional 32, mostly down toward 1.”
buying power into the economy.
• Each American consumes as many
• Mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards all resources as 32 Kenyans, for
became easier to acquire. With these example, and with a population 10
times the size of Kenya, the US
consumes 320 times more
resources.
• The question “How many people can the
earth sustain?” is inextricably linked to
resource consumption issues.
• Although agricultural production and
exploding population growth rates in the
developing world are important concerns,
so too are the high consumption and waste
rates of the developed world.
• Resource consumption and waste
production rates are about 32 times higher
in North America, Western Europe, Japan,
and Australia than they are in the
developing world.
• According to UCLA geography professor
Jared Diamond: “The estimated one billion
people who live in developed countries
have a relative per capita consumption rate
of 32.
• Most of the world’s other 5.5 billion people
constitute the developing world,mwith
relative per capita consumption rates below
32, mostly down toward 1.”
• Each American consumes as many
resources as 32 Kenyans, for
example, and with a population 10
times the size of Kenya, the US
consumes 320 times more
resources.