Case Problem Hamilton County Judges

Hamilton County judges try thousands of cases per year. In an overwhelming majority of the cases
disposed, the verdict stands as rendered. However, some cases are appealed, and of those appealed,
some of the cases are reversed. Kristen DelGuzzi of The Cincinnati Enquirer conducted a study of
cases handled by Hamilton County judges over a threeyear period. Shown in Table 4.8 are the results
for 182,908 cases handled (disposed) by 38 judges in Common Pleas Court, Domestic Relations
Court, and Municipal Court. Two of the judges (Dinkelacker and Hogan) did not serve in the same
court for the entire threeyear period. The purpose of the newspaper’s study was to evaluate the
performance of the judges. Appeals are often the result of mistakes made by judges, and the
newspaper wanted to know which judges were doing a good job and which were making too many
mistakes. You are called in to assist in the data analysis. Use your knowledge of probability and
conditional probability to help with the ranking of the judges. You also may be able to analyze the
likelihood of appeal and reversal for cases handled by different courts.

Managerial Report

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Prepare a report with your rankings of the judges. Also, include an analysis of the likelihood of appeal
and case reversal in the three courts. At a minimum, your report should include the following:
1. The probability of cases being appealed and reversed in the three different courts.

Below is the Pivot table containing Sum of Disposed cases, Sum of Appealed Cases, Sum of
Reversed Cases of three different courts:

Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed

Common 43945 1762 199
Domestic 30499 106 17
Muni 108464 500 104
Grand Total 182908 2368 320

For the Probability of cases being appealed and reversed in the three different courts, we need to
have data of sum of all the cases in all the three different courts.
The Probability formula to calculate this is:

P(Appealed) = Appealed cases

Sum of Disposed cases
Eg. P(Appealed of Common court) = 1762 / 43945 = 0.040095574

P(Reversed) = Reversed cases

Sum of Disposed cases
Eg. P(Appealed of Common court) = 199 / 43945 = 0.004528388

Similarly, for others, the probability of Appealed and Reversed cases are as follows:
Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed Probability of Cases being Appealed Probability of Cases Being Reversed
Common 43945 1762 199 0.040095574 0.004528388
Domestic 30499 106 17 0.003475524 0.000557395
Muni 108464 500 104 0.004609824 0.000958843
Grand Total 182908 2368 320 0.012946399 0.001749513

In case of Appealed cases, there were least cases appealed in the Domestic courts and in case of
Reversed, there were least cases reversed in Domestic Relations courts as well.

This mean the judges were giving correct judgement on cases in District Relations court more
often than Common Pleas Court and Municipal Courts.

This also mean that the judges in Domestic Relations courts were more probable to give correct
judgements on the cases than other two courts.

2. The probability of a case being appealed for each judge.

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Below is the Pivot table containing the values as Sum of Disposed cases, Sum of Appealed Cases,
Sum of Reversed Cases of three different courts with judges in the row:
Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed
Albert Mestemaker 4975 28 9
Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13
Arthur Ney Jr. 3219 125 14
Beth Mattingly 2971 13 1
David Davis 7736 43 5
David Stockdale 5371 22 4
Deborah Gaines 8799 48 9
Deidra Hair 2532 5 0
Dennis Helmick 7900 29 5
Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12
J. Howard Sundermann Jr. 955 60 10
Jack Rosen 7790 41 13
James Patrick Kenney 2798 6 1
John A. West 2797 4 2
John O'Connor 2969 129 12
Joseph Luebbers 4698 25 8
Karla Grady 5253 6 0
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 35 13
Mark Painter 2239 7 3
Mark Schweikert 5403 33 6
Melba Marsh 8219 34 7
Mike Allen 6149 43 4
Nadine Allen 7812 34 6
Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20
Patrick Dinkelacker 7259 63 12
Penelope Cunningham 2729 7 1
Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6
Richard Niehaus 3353 137 16
Robert Kraft 3138 127 7
Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18
Ronald Panioto 12970 32 3
Thomas Crush 3372 119 10
Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6
Timothy Black 7954 41 6
Timothy Hogan 4262 73 9
William Mallory 8277 38 9
William Mathews 2264 91 18
William Morrissey 3032 121 22
Grand Total 182908 2368 320

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To find the Probability of a Case being appealed for each judge, we need to divide the cases
appealed of each judge to their total no. of cases:
P(Appealed for Each Judge) = Appealed cases for each Judge
Sum of Disposed cases for Each Judge

Eg. P(Appealed for Albert Mestemaker) = 28 / 4975 = 0.005628141

Similarly, for others, we can use Excel to calculate as below:

Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed Probability of a Case being Appealed for Each Judge
Albert Mestemaker 4975 28 9 0.005628141
Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13 0.040432983
Arthur Ney Jr. 3219 125 14 0.038831935
Beth Mattingly 2971 13 1 0.004375631
David Davis 7736 43 5 0.005558428
David Stockdale 5371 22 4 0.004096071
Deborah Gaines 8799 48 9 0.005455165
Deidra Hair 2532 5 0 0.001974724
Dennis Helmick 7900 29 5 0.003670886
Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12 0.045110306
J. Howard Sundermann Jr. 955 60 10 0.062827225
Jack Rosen 7790 41 13 0.005263158
James Patrick Kenney 2798 6 1 0.002144389
John A. West 2797 4 2 0.001430104
John O'Connor 2969 129 12 0.043448973
Joseph Luebbers 4698 25 8 0.005321413
Karla Grady 5253 6 0 0.001142204
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 35 13 0.006626278
Mark Painter 2239 7 3 0.003126396
Mark Schweikert 5403 33 6 0.006107718
Melba Marsh 8219 34 7 0.004136756
Mike Allen 6149 43 4 0.006993007
Nadine Allen 7812 34 6 0.004352279
Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20 0.044271713
Patrick Dinkelacker 7259 63 12 0.008678881
Penelope Cunningham 2729 7 1 0.002565042
Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6 0.028488184
Richard Niehaus 3353 137 16 0.040858932
Robert Kraft 3138 127 7 0.040471638
Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18 0.04524181
Ronald Panioto 12970 32 3 0.002467232
Thomas Crush 3372 119 10 0.035290629
Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6 0.040333333
Timothy Black 7954 41 6 0.005154639
Timothy Hogan 4262 73 9 0.017128109
William Mallory 8277 38 9 0.004591035
William Mathews 2264 91 18 0.040194346
William Morrissey 3032 121 22 0.039907652
Grand Total 182908 2368 320 0.012946399

Out of 182908 cases, 2368 cases were appealed.

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3. The probability of a case being reversed for each judge.
Below is the Pivot table containing the values as Sum of Disposed cases, Sum of Appealed Cases,
Sum of Reversed Cases of three different courts with judges in the row:
Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed
Albert Mestemaker 4975 28 9
Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13
Arthur Ney Jr. 3219 125 14
Beth Mattingly 2971 13 1
David Davis 7736 43 5
David Stockdale 5371 22 4
Deborah Gaines 8799 48 9
Deidra Hair 2532 5 0
Dennis Helmick 7900 29 5
Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12
J. Howard Sundermann Jr. 955 60 10
Jack Rosen 7790 41 13
James Patrick Kenney 2798 6 1
John A. West 2797 4 2
John O'Connor 2969 129 12
Joseph Luebbers 4698 25 8
Karla Grady 5253 6 0
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 35 13
Mark Painter 2239 7 3
Mark Schweikert 5403 33 6
Melba Marsh 8219 34 7
Mike Allen 6149 43 4
Nadine Allen 7812 34 6
Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20
Patrick Dinkelacker 7259 63 12
Penelope Cunningham 2729 7 1
Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6
Richard Niehaus 3353 137 16
Robert Kraft 3138 127 7
Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18
Ronald Panioto 12970 32 3
Thomas Crush 3372 119 10
Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6
Timothy Black 7954 41 6
Timothy Hogan 4262 73 9
William Mallory 8277 38 9
William Mathews 2264 91 18
William Morrissey 3032 121 22
Grand Total 182908 2368 320

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To find the Probability of a Case being appealed for each judge, we need to divide the cases
appealed of each judge to their total no. of cases:
P(Appealed for Each Judge) = Appealed cases for each Judge
Sum of Disposed cases for Each Judge

Eg. P(Appealed for Albert Mestemaker) = 9 / 4975 = 0.001809045

Similarly, for others, we can use Excel to calculate as below:

Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed Probability of a case being reversed for each judge.
Albert Mestemaker 4975 28 9 0.001809045
Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13 0.004138809
Arthur Ney Jr. 3219 125 14 0.004349177
Beth Mattingly 2971 13 1 0.000336587
David Davis 7736 43 5 0.000646329
David Stockdale 5371 22 4 0.00074474
Deborah Gaines 8799 48 9 0.001022844
Deidra Hair 2532 5 0 0
Dennis Helmick 7900 29 5 0.000632911
Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12 0.003951268
J. Howard Sundermann Jr. 955 60 10 0.010471204
Jack Rosen 7790 41 13 0.001668806
James Patrick Kenney 2798 6 1 0.000357398
John A. West 2797 4 2 0.5
John O'Connor 2969 129 12 0.004041765
Joseph Luebbers 4698 25 8 0.001702852
Karla Grady 5253 6 0 0
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 35 13 0.002461189
Mark Painter 2239 7 3 0.001339884
Mark Schweikert 5403 33 6 0.001110494
Melba Marsh 8219 34 7 0.000851685
Mike Allen 6149 43 4 0.000650512
Nadine Allen 7812 34 6 0.000768049
Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20 0.00675904
Patrick Dinkelacker 7259 63 12 0.00165312
Penelope Cunningham 2729 7 1 0.000366435
Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6 0.001942376
Richard Niehaus 3353 137 16 0.004771846
Robert Kraft 3138 127 7 0.00223072
Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18 0.005616225
Ronald Panioto 12970 32 3 0.000231303
Thomas Crush 3372 119 10 0.002965599
Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6 0.002
Timothy Black 7954 41 6 0.000754337
Timothy Hogan 4262 73 9 0.002111685
William Mallory 8277 38 9 0.00108735
William Mathews 2264 91 18 0.00795053
William Morrissey 3032 121 22 0.007255937
Grand Total 182908 2368 320 0.001749513

Out of 182908 disposed cases, 320 were reversed.

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3. The probability of reversal given an appeal for each judge.
From the above two questions, we can find out the Probability of a Case being Appealed and
Reversed for each judge.
Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed Probability of a Case being Appealed for Each Judge Probability of a case being reversed for each judge.
Albert Mestemaker 4975 28 9 0.005628141 0.001809045
Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13 0.040432983 0.004138809
Arthur Ney Jr. 3219 125 14 0.038831935 0.004349177
Beth Mattingly 2971 13 1 0.004375631 0.000336587
David Davis 7736 43 5 0.005558428 0.000646329
David Stockdale 5371 22 4 0.004096071 0.00074474
Deborah Gaines 8799 48 9 0.005455165 0.001022844
Deidra Hair 2532 5 0 0.001974724 0
Dennis Helmick 7900 29 5 0.003670886 0.000632911
Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12 0.045110306 0.003951268
J. Howard Sundermann Jr. 955 60 10 0.062827225 0.010471204
Jack Rosen 7790 41 13 0.005263158 0.001668806
James Patrick Kenney 2798 6 1 0.002144389 0.000357398
John A. West 2797 4 2 0.001430104 0.5
John O'Connor 2969 129 12 0.043448973 0.004041765
Joseph Luebbers 4698 25 8 0.005321413 0.001702852
Karla Grady 5253 6 0 0.001142204 0
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 35 13 0.006626278 0.002461189
Mark Painter 2239 7 3 0.003126396 0.001339884
Mark Schweikert 5403 33 6 0.006107718 0.001110494
Melba Marsh 8219 34 7 0.004136756 0.000851685
Mike Allen 6149 43 4 0.006993007 0.000650512
Nadine Allen 7812 34 6 0.004352279 0.000768049
Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20 0.044271713 0.00675904
Patrick Dinkelacker 7259 63 12 0.008678881 0.00165312
Penelope Cunningham 2729 7 1 0.002565042 0.000366435
Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6 0.028488184 0.001942376
Richard Niehaus 3353 137 16 0.040858932 0.004771846
Robert Kraft 3138 127 7 0.040471638 0.00223072
Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18 0.04524181 0.005616225
Ronald Panioto 12970 32 3 0.002467232 0.000231303
Thomas Crush 3372 119 10 0.035290629 0.002965599
Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6 0.040333333 0.002
Timothy Black 7954 41 6 0.005154639 0.000754337
Timothy Hogan 4262 73 9 0.017128109 0.002111685
William Mallory 8277 38 9 0.004591035 0.00108735
William Mathews 2264 91 18 0.040194346 0.00795053
William Morrissey 3032 121 22 0.039907652 0.007255937
Grand Total 182908 2368 320 0.012946399 0.001749513

We need to find out the below:

P(Reversal | Appealed for Each Judge) = Reversal cases for each Judge
Appealed cases for Each Judge

Eg. P(Reversal | Appealed for Albert Mestemaker) = 0.001809045/0.005628141 = 0.321428571

Similarly for other judges, we can find out from the Excel:
Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed Probability of a Case being Appealed for Each Judge Probability of a case being reversed for each judge. P(Reversal intersection Appeal) = P(Reversed)/P(Appealed)
Albert Mestemaker 4975 28 9 0.005628141 0.001809045 0.321428571
Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13 0.040432983 0.004138809 0.102362205
Arthur Ney Jr. 3219 125 14 0.038831935 0.004349177 0.112
Beth Mattingly 2971 13 1 0.004375631 0.000336587 0.076923077
David Davis 7736 43 5 0.005558428 0.000646329 0.11627907
David Stockdale 5371 22 4 0.004096071 0.00074474 0.181818182
Deborah Gaines 8799 48 9 0.005455165 0.001022844 0.1875
Deidra Hair 2532 5 0 0.001974724 0 0
Dennis Helmick 7900 29 5 0.003670886 0.000632911 0.172413793
Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12 0.045110306 0.003951268 0.087591241
J. Howard Sundermann Jr. 955 60 10 0.062827225 0.010471204 0.166666667
Jack Rosen 7790 41 13 0.005263158 0.001668806 0.317073171
James Patrick Kenney 2798 6 1 0.002144389 0.000357398 0.166666667
John A. West 2797 4 2 0.001430104 0.5 349.625
John O'Connor 2969 129 12 0.043448973 0.004041765 0.093023256
Joseph Luebbers 4698 25 8 0.005321413 0.001702852 0.32
Karla Grady 5253 6 0 0.001142204 0 0
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 35 13 0.006626278 0.002461189 0.371428571
Mark Painter 2239 7 3 0.003126396 0.001339884 0.428571429
Mark Schweikert 5403 33 6 0.006107718 0.001110494 0.181818182
Melba Marsh 8219 34 7 0.004136756 0.000851685 0.205882353
Mike Allen 6149 43 4 0.006993007 0.000650512 0.093023256
Nadine Allen 7812 34 6 0.004352279 0.000768049 0.176470588
Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20 0.044271713 0.00675904 0.152671756
Patrick Dinkelacker 7259 63 12 0.008678881 0.00165312 0.19047619
Penelope Cunningham 2729 7 1 0.002565042 0.000366435 0.142857143
Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6 0.028488184 0.001942376 0.068181818
Richard Niehaus 3353 137 16 0.040858932 0.004771846 0.116788321
Robert Kraft 3138 127 7 0.040471638 0.00223072 0.05511811
Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18 0.04524181 0.005616225 0.124137931
Ronald Panioto 12970 32 3 0.002467232 0.000231303 0.09375
Thomas Crush 3372 119 10 0.035290629 0.002965599 0.084033613
Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6 0.040333333 0.002 0.049586777
Timothy Black 7954 41 6 0.005154639 0.000754337 0.146341463
Timothy Hogan 4262 73 9 0.017128109 0.002111685 0.123287671
William Mallory 8277 38 9 0.004591035 0.00108735 0.236842105
William Mathews 2264 91 18 0.040194346 0.00795053 0.197802198
William Morrissey 3032 121 22 0.039907652 0.007255937 0.181818182
Grand Total 182908 2368 320 0.012946399 0.001749513 0.135135135

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5. Rank the judges within each court. State the criteria you used and provide a rationale for your
choice.

For each court, we will find out the Appealed, Reversed and Probability of a case being reversed
for each judge. Along with it, we find out the rank of each judge in that particular court. BY
ranking the judges, we get to know the credibility of the judgement passed by the judges by
checking out their reversal cases and ultimately their upheld no. of cases which is a direct
consequence to the rank of the judges. We find out the Rank of each judge by using RANK
function in Excel.

For Common Pleas Court:

Court Common

Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed Probability of a case being reversed for each judge. Rank
Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13 0.004138809 8
Arthur Ney Jr. 3219 125 14 0.004349177 9
Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12 0.003951268 6
J. Howard Sundermann Jr. 955 60 10 0.010471204 16
John O'Connor 2969 129 12 0.004041765 7
Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20 0.00675904 13
Patrick Dinkelacker 1258 44 8 0.0063593 12
Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6 0.001942376 1
Richard Niehaus 3353 137 16 0.004771846 10
Robert Kraft 3138 127 7 0.00223072 3
Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18 0.005616225 11
Thomas Crush 3372 119 10 0.002965599 4
Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6 0.002 2
Timothy Hogan 1954 60 7 0.003582395 5
William Mathews 2264 91 18 0.00795053 15
William Morrissey 3032 121 22 0.007255937 14
Grand Total 43945 1762 199

Ralph Winker is the most highly ranked judge in Common Pleas Court because his
probability of the reversed cases are the least.

For Domestic Relations Court:

Court Domestic

Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed Probability of a case being reversed for each judge. Rank
Deborah Gaines 8799 48 9 0.001022844 4
Patrick Dinkelacker 6001 19 4 0.000666556 3
Penelope Cunningham 2729 7 1 0.000366435 2
Ronald Panioto 12970 32 3 0.000231303 1
Grand Total 30499 106 17

Ronald Panioto is the most highly ranked judge in Domestic Relations court because his
probability of the reversed cases are the least.

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For Municipal courts:
Court Muni

Row Labels Sum of Disposed Sum of Appealed Sum of Reversed Probability of a case being reversed for each judge. Rank
Albert Mestemaker 4975 28 9 0.001809045 19
Beth Mattingly 2971 13 1 0.000336587 3
David Davis 7736 43 5 0.000646329 6
David Stockdale 5371 22 4 0.00074474 9
Deidra Hair 2532 5 0 0 1
Dennis Helmick 7900 29 5 0.000632911 5
Jack Rosen 7790 41 13 0.001668806 17
James Patrick Kenney 2798 6 1 0.000357398 4
John A. West 2797 4 2 0.000715052 8
Joseph Luebbers 4698 25 8 0.001702852 18
Karla Grady 5253 6 0 0 1
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 35 13 0.002461189 20
Mark Painter 2239 7 3 0.001339884 16
Mark Schweikert 5403 33 6 0.001110494 15
Melba Marsh 8219 34 7 0.000851685 12
Mike Allen 6149 43 4 0.000650512 7
Nadine Allen 7812 34 6 0.000768049 11
Timothy Black 7954 41 6 0.000754337 10
Timothy Hogan 2308 13 2 0.000866551 13
William Mallory 8277 38 9 0.00108735 14
Grand Total 108464 500 104

Diedra Hair and Karla Grady are the most highly ranked judge in Municipal court
because their probability of the reversed cases is 0.