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Basic Probability
Lesson 13
CONTENT: GOAL:
> Definition
> Examples
Probability is the likelihood for a certain event to occur out of all possible
events. In this lecture we will discuss the basic functions of probability.

EXAMPLE
A 6-sided dice rolled once has 6 possible outcomes, the likelihood of rolling a
3 is 1 event out of 6 outcomes. Therefor, the probability is 1 out of 6 or
16.67%
EXPLANATION

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions

of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true.
Probability is defined between 0 and 1 or 100%, where 0 indicates
impossibility while 1 or 100% indicates certainty. The higher the likelihood for
an event to occur the higher is the value of it’s probability.

The basic formula of the probability given an event A is

TRIALS AND EVENTS

Experiments or observations which can be repeated under the same

conditions (e.g. flipping a coin or rolling a dice) is called a trial. The possible
outcomes from a trial are called events. The set containing all the possible
outcomes of a trial is called the sample space and is denoted by U.
EXAMPLE

Considering a trial “rolling a dice”

The possible outcomes of rolling a dice is 1,2,3,4,5, and 6.
The sample space U is a set that contains all the possible outcomes
therefore U = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

The event “the dice shows a 1” contains the outcomes with 1 which is {1}

Another event “the dice shows an even number” will contain the outcomes
showing an even number {2,4,6}
EXAMPLE
Going back to the formula for probability

Consider the trial of “rolling a dice”

The sample space U containing all outcomes is U = {1,2,3,4,5,6}, U has 6 elements therefore n(U) = 6

Given an event A “the dice shows a 1”

Event A contains all the outcomes where the dice shows a 1 which is A = {1}
A only has one element therefore n(A) = 1

The probability for event A “the dice shows a 1” to occur can then be solved using the formula

Therefore the probability of the dice showing a 1 is ⅙

EXAMPLE
Consider the trial of “flipping a coin”

Flipping a coin has two outcomes, heads or tails

Therefore the sample space U containing all outcomes is U = {heads,tails}

U has 2 elements therefore n(U) = 2

Now given event A where “the coin will show heads”

Event A would then contain all the outcomes where the coin shows heads A = {heads}
A only has one element therefore n(A) = 1

Using the formula for probability to solve the likelihood of the coin showing heads

Therefore the probability of the coin showing heads when flipped is ½

EXAMPLE
Now consider the trial of “flipping two coins at the same time”

Flipping two coins at the same time has four possible outcomes,(1) both coins are heads,(2) both coins are
tails, (3) the first coin is heads while the second is tails, and finally (4) the first coin is tails while the second
is heads

The sample space U containing all outcomes would then be U = {(1),(2),(3),(4)}

U has 4 elements therefore n(U) = 4

If given an event A where “at least one coin shows heads”

Outcomes (1),(3), and (4) have at least one coin showing heads
Since event A would contain all possible outcomes satisfying the event therefore A = {(1),(3),(4)}
A has three elements therefore n(A) = 3

Using the formula

Therefore the probability of at least one coin showing heads when two coins are flipped at the same
time is ¾
INTERSECTION AND UNION OF EVENTS

Consider two events A and B in sample space U

An event where both A and B occurs is called the intersection of A and B or

AB

An event where at least one of A or B occurs is called the union of A and B or

AB
EXAMPLE
Consider a trial of “rolling a dice”

Let event A be the event “the dice shows an even number” and event B be the event “the dice shows a
number less than or equal to 3”

Event A would then contain the outcomes showing an even number, thus A = {2,4,6}
Event B on the other hand would contain outcomes showing a number less than or equal to 3, B= {1,2,3}

The intersection of A and B is when the outcome satisfies both events A and B. 2 is the only outcome that
satisfies both A and B therefore, AB={2}

The union of A and B is when the outcome satisfies at least one of either A or B. 1,2,3,4, and 6 are all
outcomes that satisfy A, B, or both events therefore, AB={1,2,3,4,6}
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Given two events A and B in a sample space U

If there is no event where the outcome satisfies both events A and B, then A and B are called mutually
exclusive events of each other

Since there is no common event for mutually exclusive events, then if A and B are mutually exclusive then
the intersection of A and B has no outcomes, thus

Where ∅ is called a null event or impossible event, which means that it contains no events at all or an
event that never occurs, and thus n(∅)=0

And for mutually exclusive events

The number of events in the union of events of A and B is equal to the sum of the number of events
of A and B
EXAMPLE
Consider a trial of “rolling a dice”

Let event A be the event where “the dice shows an even number” and let event B be the
event where “the dice shows 3”

A = {2,4,6}
B = {3}

Since there is no outcome that satisfies both A and B, therefore the intersection of A and B is
an impossible event

And thus A and B are mutually exclusive events of each other

BASIC PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY
Much like any branch of mathematics, probability has its own properties and rules that it
must follow. We can then apply these properties when solving for probability.

Probability has three basic properties

1. For any event A,

1. For any sample space U,

In addition, for any null event

1. If two events A and B are mutually exclusive

PROPERTY 1
For any event A,

In a trial, sample space U contains all possible outcomes therefore the maximum number of possible
outcomes is n(U)

Given an event A, the number of outcomes in of event A, n(A), cannot exceed the maximum which is n(U)

Therefore

On another note n(A) cannot also go below 0 therefore

By combining both inequalities we get

PROPERTY 1
Then we divide the whole inequality by n(U)

Since
1. 0 divided by any number is still 0,

1. Using the formula of probability,

1. n(U) divided by itself is equal to 1,

Therefore,

This means that the value of P(A) can only be a number between 0 and 1
PROPERTY 2
For any sample space U,

In addition, for any null event

Consider a trial with sample space U

If we try solve for the probability of U which is P(U), then using the probability formula we get

Since n(U) divided by itself is simply equal to 1 then the probability of U is

PROPERTY 2
This means that for any trial, the probability of U to happen will always be equal to 1

On the other hand consider the null event ∅, since ∅ is an empty set then n(∅) = 0

Using the probability formula to solve for the probability of ∅ we get

Since 0 divided by any number is always equal to 0 therefore

This means that the probability of any trial to have no outcome is 0 or impossible
PROPERTY 3
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive events

Consider two events A and B that are mutually exclusive events

The number of elements of the two events therefore satisfy

By dividing both sides by n(U) to get the probability we get

Therefore,

This means that for any two mutually exclusive events the the probability that either event to
occur is the sum of the probability of the two events

This property is also known as the addition rule for probability

EXAMPLE
Consider a trial of “rolling a dice”

Given two events A and B where event A is the event where “the dice shows an even
number” and event B is the event where “the dice shows a 5”, find the probability that either
the dice shows an even number or the dice shows a 5

Sample space U containing all events is U = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

The outcomes of event A are A = {2,4,6}
The outcome of event B is B = {5}

A and B have no common outcomes thus

Therefore A and B are mutually exclusive events

EXAMPLE
Through the 3rd property of basic probability, since A and B are mutually exclusive the
probability of either A or B to occur is the sum of the probabilities of A and B

Therefore the probability of either event A or B to occur is ⅔.

 END
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