Wind Power Part 2 1page

Wind Power Part 2 16 September 2008
Wind Energy - Part 2
Thomas Ackermann, Ph.D.
Energynautics GmbH
Germany
t k
t.ackermann@energynautics.com
@ ti
T.Ackermann@energynautics.com 1
Outline
Now:
• The Recent
Developments and the
Current Situation
• Market Regulations &
Economics
• The Power in the Wind
After the Oil Crises

• World-wide interested in Wind Power
slowed
l d down
d significantly,
i ifi tl but
b t ...
• Denmark put up some market

regulations to promote wind power;
• As a result, a local market developed

with local manufactures;
• In the 80s,
80s about 30-50 MW pp. a
a. of
wind power installed in Denmark.
California Started the First

Wind Rush in the early 80s
Wind Turbines in CA by 1992
T bi
Turbines C
Capacity
i
U.S 7,786 49 % 725 44 %
Denmark 6,778 43 % 676 41 %
Japan 660 4% 165 10 %
Belgium 174 1% 37 2%
UK 112 1% 34 2%
1992 Total 15,865 1,655
((MW))
Early 1980: 50 - 75 kW, D = ~ 15 m
Late 1980s/ early 1990 ...
• CA Wind Rush came to an end
• Germany introduced the Feed-

Feed
in Law and the German Market
took off ...
Wind Turbine/
Wind
Wi d Farm
F Sites
Sit
Year
1991
Source:
Wind Turbine/
Wind
Wi d Farm
F Sites
Sit
Year
1993
Source:
Wind Turbine/
Wind
Wi d Farm
F Sites
Sit
Year
1995
Source:
10
Wind Turbine/
Wind
Wi d Farm
F Sites
Sit
Year
1997
Source:
11
Wind Turbine/
Wind
Wi d Farm
F Sites
Sit
Year
09/2000
Source:
12
The German
„Wind
Power Plant“
End 2003
~14 000 MW
~14,000
Currently:
23,000 MW
Source:
13
TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT
15
Wind Turbine Development
2008:
2008
First 7MW
Turbine
16
Average size of WTG (MW)

Germany versus USA
Germany
Year MW
1991 0,168
1992 0,178
1993 0,255
1994 0,370
1995 0,472 USA
1996 0,530
1997 0,628
1998 0,785
1999 0,935
2000 1,114
2001 1,278
2002 1,394
2003 1 650
1,650
2004 1,715
2005 1,723
2006 1,848
2007 1,916 17
Segmentation of Product Sizes

in 2005-2007
Year 2005 2006 2007

Total MW supplied 11,338 16,007 22,181
Product (Size range) % of total MW
"Small WTGs" <750 kW 3.6% 2.4% 1.3%
"One-MW " 750-1500 kW 48.2% 43.3% 45.8%
"Mainstream" 1501-2500 kW 45.8% 49.9% 47.6%
"Multi-MW Class" >2500 kW 2.4% 4.3% 5.3%
T t l
Total 100 0%
100.0% 100 0%
100.0% 100 0%
100.0%
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
Installed Multi-MW class WTGs (>2.5MW) - 2003 to 2007

Year: Until 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Installed capacity (MW) during the year 121 72 271 692 1,174
Number of units installed during the year 39 23 89 225 379
Share of the World Market in % (ref. MW) 0.3% 0.9% 2.3% 4.6% 5.9%
18
250 kW (D = 25 m)
From 200 kW to 1000 kW
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
The 4 Wind Turbine Types

Variable Resistance
Danish Concept
DFIG Full Converter
28
CURRENT STATUS
29
Wind Power Development

1995 - 2007
Region Installed Capacity [MW]

End-1995 End- End- End- End-
2004 2005 2006 2007
Europe 2,518 33,660 39,993 48,530 57,126

North America 1,676 7,241 9,550 13,159 18,817
South & Central America 11 208 232 530 547
Asia & Pacific 626 4,698 6,782 11,486 16,924
Middle East & Africa 13 241 256 448 467
TOTAL World Wide 4,844 46,048 56,813 74,153 93,881
Source Data: Wind Power Monthly
Total new wind power installation in 2007:

19,728 MW -> €20 billion, or US$30 billion.
30
End-1995 End-2007
+1,625 MW in 2007
Germany 1,136 22,247
Spain 145 15,145 +3,530 MW in 2007
Denmark 619 3,124
Italy 25 2,726
UK 200 2,425
Status in France
Portugal
7
13
2,370
2 150
2,150
+901 MW in 2007
Netherlands 236 1,747

Europe 2007 Austria
Greece
3
28
982
871
Ireland 7 806
in [MW] Sweden
Norway
67
4
788
386
Belgium 0 287
Poland 1 280
Turkey 0 192
Finland 7 86
USA: 16,971 MW Ukraine 1 86
(+5,272 in 2007) Hungary 0 65
Bulgaria 0 62
Estonia 0 58
India: 7,844 MW Czech Republic 7 56
Lithuania 0 56
(+1,574 in 2007) Luxembourg 0 35
Latvia 0 27
Croatia 0 17
China: 5,906 MW Switzerland 0 12
(+ 3,312 MW in 2007) Romania 0 8
Russia 5 7
Slovakia 0 5
Total 2,518 57,126
31
Source Data: Wind Power Monthly
32
World Market Growth Rates
Year: Installed MW Increase % Cumulative MW Increase %

2002
00 7,227
, 32,037
3 ,03
2003 8,344 15% 40,301 26%
2004 8,154 -2% 47,912 19%
2005 11,542 42% 59,399 24%
2006 15,016 30% 74,306 25%
2007 19,791 32% 94,005 27%
Average growth - 5 years 22.3% 24.0%
Accu. Accu. Accu. Accu. Growth rate 3 years
end end end end 2006-2007 average
Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 % %
Germany 16,649 18,445 20,652 22,277 7.9% 10.2%
USA 6,750 9,181 11,635 16,879 45.1% 35.7%
Spain 8,263 10,027 11,614 14,714 26.7% 21.2%
India 3,000 4,388 6,228 7,845 26.0% 37.8%
P.R. China 769 1,264 2,588 5,875 127.0% 97.0%
Denmark 3,083 3,087 3,101 3,088 -0.4% 0.1%
Italy 1,261 1,713 2,118 2,721 28.5% 29.2%
France 386 775 1,585 2,471 56.0% 85.7%
UK 889 1,336 1,967 2,394 21.7% 39.1%
Portugal 585 1,087 1,716 2,150 25.3% 54.3%
Total "Ten" 41,634 51,303 63,203 80,415 27.2% 24.5%
33
Still huge potential…?

WIND
34
Market shares in 2005,

2006 and 2007
Supplied Share Supplied Share Supplied Share

MW 2005 MW 2006 MW 2007
2005 % 2006 % 2007 %
VESTAS (DK) 3,186 27.6% 4,239 28.2% 4,503 22.8%
GE WIND (US) 2,025 17.5% 2,326 15.5% 3,283 16.6%
GAMESA (ES) 1,474 12.8% 2,346 15.6% 3,047 15.4%
ENERCON (GE) 1,640 14.2% 2,316 15.4% 2,769 14.0%
SUZLON (Ind) 700 6 1%
6.1% 1 157
1,157 7 7%
7.7% 2 082
2,082 10 5%
10.5%
SIEMENS (DK) 629 5.4% 1,103 7.3% 1,397 7.1%
ACCIONA (ES) 224 1.9% 426 2.8% 873 4.4%
GOLDWIND (PRC) 132 1.1% 416 2.8% 830 4.2%
NORDEX (GE) 298 2.6% 505 3.4% 676 3.4%
SINOVEL (PRC) 3 0.0% 75 0.5% 671 3.4%
Others 1,032 8.9% 1,094 7.3% 2,076 10.5%
Total 11,342 98% 16,003 107% 22,207 112%
35
ECONOMIC DRIVERS
36
Is Wind Power Competitive ?
What is competitive anyway?
Country Structure
Germanyy Coal + Nuclear
Netherlands Gas + Coal
Italy Oil
France Nuclear
UK Coal + Nuclear*
Sweden Hydro + Nuclear
37
Generation Costs of
other Sources
Japan 4 - 8 €cent/KWh
Germany 5 €cent/kWh down to 2

€cent/Kwh
Sweden was 1.5 €cent/KWh at the

moment 3 €cent/KWh
Australia zero at night

38
Wind Generation Costs
Depends on the Wind Speed !
Sweden: ~ 5 - 6 €cent/KWh ( 7 – 7.5

7 5 m/s)
New Zealand: ~ 2.5 €cent/KWh ( 10 m/s)
39
Important Aspects
• Market Risk versus High
Investment Costs:
– High investment costs: 1000€ - 1400€ per
kW installed capacity but no fuel costs (but
maintenance costs: 5-10% of the yearly
production);
– Natural Gas investment costs: 400 - 500€

per kW installed capacity
40
Support Systems
• Feed-in Tariff Key Support Schemes

in Europe
• Bidding Process
• Tax Incentives
• Quotas/ Renewable Energy Portfolio
• Green Pricing
41
Feed-in Tariff (Germany)
Fixed Tariff: ~ 7 - 8 €cent/kWh,, depends

p on
location
• Utilities have to pay! (and connect if

possible)
• Turbine prices used to be 40 % higher
than in competitive markets, currently
difficult to get turbines
Pool Price: ~5 €cent/ kWh
Wind Costs: ~ 5 - 6 €cent/KWh ( 6 – 7 m/s)
42
Fixed Quotas Combined

with Green Certificate Trading
(Renewable Energy Portfolio?)
• The government introduces fixed

quotas for power retailers;
• Producer of renewable power
recei e certificates
receive certificates;
• Retailers must by the certificates
• a Market for renewable power is
created! (Sweden, UK)
43
Certificates
Sweden UK
Market prize: ~5 6,5 €cent/KWh
Green certificates: ~2 6 €cent/KWh
Avoided Losses: ~ 0,05 0 €cent/KWh
Total Income: ~ 7.05 12,5 €cent/KWh

Wind Costs: ~6 5-6 €cent/KWh
( 7 – 7.5 m/s) ( 7.5 – 8 m/s)
44
3,124 MW
2,425 MW
1,747
, MW
22,247 MW
2,150 MW 2,726 MW
15,145 MW
Source: EU
Conclusions
• Wind energy has become the least expensive
renewable
bl energy technology;
t h l
• Since the energy of the wind varies with the

cube of the wind speed, the economics of wind
energy depend heavily on how windy the site is;
• Even so wind can be competitive with

conventional generation, economic incentives
are key to overcome the disadvantages of high
upfront investment costs;
46
Thank y
you very
y much for y
your attention !
Thank you very much for your attention !
47

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Wind Power Part 2 16 September 2008

Wind Energy - Part 2

Thomas Ackermann, Ph.D.

• The Power in the Wind

After the Oil Crises

• Denmark put up some market

• As a result, a local market developed

California Started the First

Wind Turbines in CA by 1992

Early 1980: 50 - 75 kW, D = ~ 15 m

Late 1980s/ early 1990 ...

• CA Wind Rush came to an end

• Germany introduced the Feed-

Wind Turbine Development

Average size of WTG (MW)

Segmentation of Product Sizes

Year 2005 2006 2007

Installed Multi-MW class WTGs (>2.5MW) - 2003 to 2007

From 200 kW to 1000 kW

The 4 Wind Turbine Types

DFIG Full Converter

Wind Power Development

Region Installed Capacity [MW]

Europe 2,518 33,660 39,993 48,530 57,126

Total new wind power installation in 2007:

Netherlands 236 1,747

World Market Growth Rates

Year: Installed MW Increase % Cumulative MW Increase %

Still huge potential…?

Market shares in 2005,

Supplied Share Supplied Share Supplied Share

Is Wind Power Competitive ?

What is competitive anyway?

Germany 5 €cent/kWh down to 2

Sweden was 1.5 €cent/KWh at the

Australia zero at night

Wind Generation Costs

Depends on the Wind Speed !

Sweden: ~ 5 - 6 €cent/KWh ( 7 – 7.5

New Zealand: ~ 2.5 €cent/KWh ( 10 m/s)

– Natural Gas investment costs: 400 - 500€

• Feed-in Tariff Key Support Schemes

• Quotas/ Renewable Energy Portfolio

Feed-in Tariff (Germany)

Fixed Tariff: ~ 7 - 8 €cent/kWh,, depends

• Utilities have to pay! (and connect if

Fixed Quotas Combined

• The government introduces fixed

Total Income: ~ 7.05 12,5 €cent/KWh

• Since the energy of the wind varies with the

• Even so wind can be competitive with

Thank you very much for your attention !

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