FAIRFIELD INSTITUTE OF

MANAGEMENT AND TECHNOLOGY

Probability of completing the project within given time

Project Management (302)

SUBMITTED TO- SUBMITTED BY-

MISS IPSA MUSKAN
Assistant Professor 04051488819
B.Com (Hons.)
VI Semester
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

S.NO. CONTENTS PAGE NO.

1 Topic- Probability of 1
completing the project
within given time

2 Table of Contents 2
3 Introduction 3
4 Objectives 4
5 About 5-17
6 Conclusion 18
7 Bibliography 19
 INTRODUCTION
Correct time estimates for project completion can improve your
professional status and reduce workplace stress. When the ETC is
accurate, you are likely to be able to secure enough funding, personnel
and materials to complete the project to your client's or employer's
satisfaction, possibly leading to more project management
opportunities in the future. A correct ETC also helps project managers
design fair scheduling. The members of the project are unlikely to need
to work overtime to produce high-quality results and meet project
deadlines, presenting a more satisfying working environment for
them.
 OBJECTIVES
• To know about the Probability of completing the project within
given time.

• To develop further understanding of the theories and concepts

covered in the course.

• To develop a practice of learning new aspects of the subject.

• To develop a habit of research related to the subject.

 Probability of completing the project within
given time

Project Management Techniques (PMT)

 Critical Path Method (CPM) and Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) are 2
main basic techniques used in project management.
 Example:
 Construction of a house.
 Construction of a bridge.
 Construction of a power plant.
 Large industrial projects etc.
 Organizing research and development activities etc.

ACTIVI DESCRIPTION DURATION IMMEDIATE

TY (WEEKS) PREDECESSORS
A Obtain budget approval 2 -
B Obtain machine 5 A
C Hire operator 1 A
D Install machine 1 B
E Train operator 6 C

F Produce the goods 1 D, E

 D
B
F
A 6

C E

Activity Activity NODES Events In

TimeBegins Ends
(Tail Event) (Head Event)
RULES OF NETORK CONSTRUCTION:
1. Each defined activity is represented by one and only one arrow in the network.
2. Before an activity begins, all activities preceding it must be completed.
3. The arrow direction indicates general progression in time. The arrow head represents the
point in time at which the activity completion event takes place.
4. Events are identified by numbers. There should be no duplication of numbers.
5. A network should have only one initial and one terminal node.
6. Parallel activities between two events, without intervening events, are prohibited i.e., 2
activities cannot have same head and tail events.

A
A

Dummy
B Activity

A  (1 - 2) A (1 - 2) B
B  (1 - 2) B (1 - 3)

 Minimum number of dummy activities should be used for efficient network.

7. Looping is not permitted in a network.

A
 If A precedes B and B precedes C,
then C cannot precede A
B

C
Critical Path Method (CPM)

L 8 15 20
C
E J (5)
S
E (6)

A (2)
F (8) K (4)
N (7) 27
0
0
B (6) G (3) L (3)

D (3)
C (4) H (7) M (13)
9 14

I (2)

PHASE 1: Earliest Start Times (ES) {Forward Pass}

Let Dij duration of activity (i, j).
ESj Earliest start times of all the activities at node j.ESj
= max (ESi + Dij)

Node 1: ES1 = 0
Node 2: ES2 = ES1 + D12 = 0 + 2 = 2
Node 3: ES3 = ES1 + D13 = 0 + 6 = 6
Node 4: ES4 = max (ESi + Di4) (i = 1, 3)
= max [(ES1 + D14), (ES3 + D34)]
= max [4, (6 + 3)] = 9
Node 5: ES5 = ES2 + D25 = 2 + 6 = 8
Node 6: ES6 = max (ESi + Di6) (i = 2, 3, 4)
 = 16
Node 7: ES7 = ES4 + D47 = 9 + 2 = 11
Node 8: ES8 = max (ESi + Di8) (i = 5, 6)
= max [(ES5 + D58), (ES6 + D68)]
= max [(8 + 5), (16 + 4)] = 20
Node 9: ES9 = max (ESi + Di8) (i = 6, 7, 8)
= max [(ES6 + D69), (ES7 + D79), (ES8 + D89)]
= max [(16 + 3), (11 + 13), (20 + 7)]
= max [19, 24, 27] = 27

PHASE 2: Latest Completion Time (LCi) {Backward Pass}

Let LCj latest completion time of all activities at node j.
LCi = min (LCj - Dij)

Node 9: LC9 = ES9 = 27

Node 8: LC8 = LC9 - D89 = 27 – 7 = 20
Node 7: LC7 = LC9 – D79 = 27 – 13 = 14
Node 6: LC6 = min (LCj – D6j) = 16
Node 5: LC5 = 15
Node 4: LC4 = 9
Node 3: LC3 = 6
Node 2: LC2 = 8
i ESi LCi
Node 1: LC1 = 0
1 0 0

2 2 8

3 6 6

4 9 9

5 8 15

6 16 16

7 11 14

8 20 20

9 27 27
Critical Activities: B D H K N.
Project Completion Time: 6 + 3 + 7 + 4 +7 = 27 months.

FLOATS
Total FLOATS: It is the amount of time that the activity completion time can be delayed without affecting the
project completion time.

TFij = LCj - ESi - Dij

Free FLOATS: It is the amount of time that the activity completion time can be delayed without affecting the
earliest start time of the immediate successor activities in the network.

FFij = ESj – ESi - Dij

Activity Duration Total FLOATS Free FLOATS

(i, j) Dij TFij FFij

1-2 2 6 0

1–3 6 0 0

1-4 4 5 5

2-5 6 7 0

2-6 8 6 6

3-4 3 0 0

3–6 3 7 7

4–6 7 0 0

4-7 2 3 0

5–8 5 7 7

6–8 4 0 0

6–9 3 8 8

7–9 13 3 3

8-9 7 0 0
 Any critical activity will have zero Total FLOAT and zero Free FLOAT.

PERT
 Probabilistic estimate.
 3 estimate are used :
a  optimistic time.
b  pessimistic time.
m  most likely time.

Optimistic Time: If the execution goes extremely good.

Pessimistic Time: If the execution goes very badly.

Most Likely Time: Time estimate if execution is normal.

 The Probabilistic data for project activities generally follow beta distribution. The formula for mean (µ) and
variance (σ2) of beta distribution are given as:
Mean µ = (a + 4m + b) / 6
And variance σ2 = [(b - a) / 6]2

The range for time estimate is from a to b.

 The expected project completion time is ∑i µi

Where, µi  expected duration of critical activity
 The variance of the project completion time is ∑i 𝜎i2
Where, 𝜎i2  variance of the ith critical activity in the critical path.
 For the statistical analysis we need to know the probability of completing the project on or before due date
(C).
 For this beta distribution is approximated to standard normal distribution whose statistics is given as:
Ƶ = (x - µ) / σ
Where, x  actual project completion time.

µ  expected project completion time.

σ  standard deviation of the expected project completion time.
Therefore, P(x <= C) represents the probability that the project is completed on or before the time C.
 This can be converted into the standard normal statistics Ƶ as:
P { [ (x - µ) / σ] <= [(C - µ) / σ] }
= P { Ƶ <= [(C - µ) / σ] }
 EXAMPLE:
ACTIVITY PREDECESSOR DURATION (weeks)

a m b

A - 6 7 8

B - 1 2 9

C - 1 4 7

D A 1 2 3

E A, B 1 2 9

F C 1 5 9

G C 2 2 8

H E, F 4 4 4

I E, F 4 4 10

J D, H 2 5 14

K I, G 2 2 8

a. Construct the project network.

b. Find the expected duration and variance of each activity.
c. Find the critical path and the expected project completion time.
d. What is the probability of completing the project on or before 25 weeks?
e. If the probability of completing the project is 0.84, find the expected project completion time.
 SOLUTION:

Step a.

7 14
7 14
D

A
D1 H J
0 10 20
0 10 20
B E

7
7
F I
C K
5 17
4 15
G
Step b.

ACTIVITY DURATION (weeks) MEAN VARIANCE

a m b DURATION
A 6 7 8 7 0.11

B 1 2 9 3 1.78

C 1 4 7 4 1.00

D 1 2 3 2 0.11

E 1 2 9 3 1.78

F 1 5 9 5 1.78

G 2 2 8 3 1.00

H 4 4 4 4 0.00

I 4 4 10 5 1.00

J 2 5 14 6 4.00

K 2 2 8 3 1.00

Step c.

Critical Path: A D1 E  H J

Project completion time = 20 weeks.

Step d.

Sum of variance of all the activities on the critical path is:

0.11 + 1.78 + 0.00 + 4.00 = 5.89 weeks

Therefore, σ = √5.89 = 2.43 weeks.

P ( x <= 25 ) = P { [(x - µ) / σ] <= [(25 - 20) / 2.43] }

= P ( Ƶ <= 2.06 ) = 0.9803

Therefore, the probability if completing the project on or before 25 weeks is 0.9803.

 Step e.

P( x <= C) = 0.84

P { [ (x - µ) / σ] <= [(C

- µ) / σ] } = 0.84P (

Ƶ <= [(C - 20) /

2.43]) = 0.84

From the standard normal table the value of Ƶ = 0.99, when cumulative

probability is 0.84.(C - 20) / 2.43 = 0.99

C = 2.44 weeks

The project will be completed in 22.4 weeks (≈ 23 weeks) if the probability of completing the project is
0.84.

Example

The Three time estimate for different activities of a project are given below:

Activity T0T0 TmTm TpTp

1-2 2 5 8

2-3 4 9 20

2-4 4 7 16

2-5 8 11 20

3-6 3 7 17

4-6 7 10 13

4-5 0 0 0

5-7 3 5 13

6-7 2 3 10

7-8 2 4 6
 Z -2 -1 0 1 2

P% -2.28 15.87 50 84.13 97.72

What is the probability of completing the project in 35 Days?

Answer

Step 1 :
For critical activity only
σ=tp−to6σ=tp−to6

T0T Tm Tp Te σσ σ2σ2
Activity 0
= t0+4tm+tp
_____________
6

1-2 2 5 8 5 1 1

2-3 4 9 20 6

2-4 4 7 16 8 2 4

2-5 8 11 20 12

3-6 3 7 17 8

4-6 7 10 13 10 1 1

4-5 0 0 0 0

5-7 3 5 13 6

6-7 2 3 10 4 1.33 1.768

7-8 2 4 6 4 0.66 0.435

 T0T Tm Tp Te σσ σ2σ2
Activity 0
= t0+4tm+tp
_____________
6

∑σ2=8.203
∑σ2=8.203
Step 2:-

Project duration = 31 days

Critical path =1-2-4-6-7-8
Step 3:-
The probability of completing the project in 35 days is
z = scheduled time-project duration
scheduled time-project durationϵ
S.T.= 35 Days
P.D.= 31 Days
ϵ=σ2−−√=8.203−−−−√=2.86ϵ=σ2=8.203=2.86
z = 35−312.86=1.39835−312.86=1.398
From table given in question, interpolation

∴P%=89.54%
 CONCLUSION

The estimated time to completion, or ETC, is a calculation of the

number of hours you think a project requires from beginning to end.
For project managers, determining the ETC is a vital step in the
lifespan of a project. It can help determine cost and the amount of
materials needed, and it can contribute to managing the expectations
of everyone involved.
 BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. BOOKS – Desai, Vasant, (34th Ed. 2016), Project Management,

Himalaya Publishing House.
Nagarajan, k., (10th Edition,2019), “Project Management”, New Age
International (P) Limited, Publishers.
2. WEBSITE –
www.theintactone.com
www.oreilly.com
www.testbook.com