4/7/2022

WATER DEMAND
AND
POPULATION FORECASTING

CHAPTER I

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Objective
The specific objective of this chapter is:-
• To identify various types of water demand
• To estimate the amount of water required by urban or rural areas
• To fix the design capacity of different water supply scheme
components.
• To forecast the population size to the end of design period by
using different methods

4/7/2022 BY M.F 2

1
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

JMP report
• The World Health Organization and United Nations Children’s Fund (WHO/
UNICEF) Joint Monitoring Program for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene
(JMP).
Globally
• 1.2 billion people have basic services,
• 282 million have limited services,
• 367 million using unimproved sources,
• 122 million drinking surface water
• In Ethiopia only 13 % of the population have
Water supply coverage of Sub- safely managed water supply
Saharan Africa

4/7/2022 BY M.F 3

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፩. Introduction
➢ In the design of any water works projects it is necessary to estimate the amount
of water that is required. This involves:

• The estimation of per capita water consumption

• Analysis of the factors that affect water consumption

• The determination of population size that will be served

4/7/2022 BY M.F 4

2
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

1. Domestic water demand

2. Industrial water demand

3. Commercial and institutional water demand

4. Public water demand

5. Domestic animal water demand

6. Firefighting water demand

7. Water losses

4/7/2022 BY M.F 5

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

1. Domestic water demand

• Domestic water demand is the water required for household works.

• In-house water usage is for • There are commonly four modes of

services in which an individual can be
✓ Drinking,
served:
✓ Personal hygiene,
✓ WC flushing, ✓ House Connection
✓ Shower, ✓ Yard tap user (shared and owned)
✓ Cooking
✓ Public tap user
✓ Cleaning and laundry,
✓ Washing machines and ✓ Traditional source users
dishwashers.

4/7/2022 BY M.F 6

3
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

1. Domestic water demand

• In the USA the typical in-house consumption (excluding cooling) is 180–230 lcd

Service type Stage one Stage two No Activities YC PT

(lcd) (lcd) 1 Drinking 3.5 2.5
HC 50 70 2 Cooking 4.5 3.5
YCO 25 30 3 Ablutions 5 5
YCS 30 40 4 Washing dishes 4.5 3
(PT) 20 25 5 Washing closes 3.5 3
6 Bathing 4 3
Source: Ministry of Water Resources Urban Total 25 20
water supply design criteria January, 2006
Rural area domestic water demand

4/7/2022 BY M.F 7

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

2. Industrial water demand

• This represents the water demand of industries,

✓ Both existing and likely to be established in the future with in the design
period.

• Water Demand for typical production processes

Industry Approximate water
requirement 1000 lit/tone
Fertilizer 80-200
Leather 40
Paper 200-400
Sugar 1-2
Textile 80-140

4/7/2022 BY M.F 8

4
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

Institutional water demand

• This is the water required by institutions and commercial units.

• It varies with the nature of the city and number and types of commercial and
institutional establishments.
3. Commercial and

• Commercials: Shops, offices, restaurants, hotels, railway stations, airports, small

trades, workshops, etc.

• Institutional: Hospitals, schools, universities, government offices, military

establishments, etc.

4/7/2022 BY M.F 9

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

Institutional water demand

Types of units Daily demand

• In England the overall Restaurants 10 l/seat
average commercial and Boarding school 60 l/pupil
Day schools 5 l/pupil
institutional demand is
Public offices 5 l/employee
equivalent to about 25 lcd Workshop/shops 5 l/employee
3. Commercial and

over the whole population Mosques and Churches 5 l/worshipper

Cinema house 4 l/seat
served. Abattoir 150 l/cow
Hospitals 50-75 l/bed
Hotels 25-50 l/bed
Public bath 30 l/visitor
(Source: Ministry of Water Resources Urban Railway and bus station 5 l/user
water supply design criteria January, 2006) Military camps 60 l/person
Public latrines(with water facility 20 l/seat
connection)

4/7/2022 BY M.F 10

5
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

• Public water demand is the quantities of water used for:
4. Public water demand

✓ Water and maintain parks, green areas,

✓ Ornamental ponds, fountains,
✓ Gardens attached to public buildings,
✓ Street cleaning,
✓ Sewer flushing etc.

• In the UK the public and miscellaneous water demand is expected up to 1% of

the total input into distribution, equivalent to about 3 lcd for the total
population

4/7/2022 BY M.F 11

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

5. Livestock’s water demand

• The demand for livestock watering from the public water supply system shall be
assessed for each town individually during the socio-economic survey.

Livestock’s Daily water demand

Cattle, donkeys, horses, etc 50 lhd
Goats/sheep 10 lhd
Camel 150 l/h/month

(Source: Ministry of Water Resources Urban water supply

design criteria January, 2006)

4/7/2022 BY M.F 12

6
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

6. Firefighting water demand

• The quantity of water required to extinguish fire should be easily available and
kept always stored in storage reservoirs.

• Fire hydrants are usually fitted in the water mains at about 100 to 150 meters
apart.

• The minimum water pressure available in the fire hydrant should be 10 to 15 m

of water.

• Pressure should be maintained even after 4 to 5 hours’ constant use of fire

hydrant

4/7/2022 BY M.F 13

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

6. Firefighting water demand

• This demand is taken off by increasing the volume of the storage tanks by 10 %
according to MoWIE

• National fire under writers formula:

i. When the population is less than or equal to 200,000
𝑄 = 4637 𝑃 1 − 0.01 𝑃
ii. When population is more than 200,000, a provision of 54,600 lpm may be
made with an extra additional provision of 9100 to 36,400 lpm for a second
fire.
• Others: Kuichling, Freeman, Buston and ISO formulas.

4/7/2022 BY M.F 14

7
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፪. Water demand types

• Water loss is made up of apparent and real losses.

• Apparent losses: represent unauthorized consumption that is not measured

or billed to the consumer.
✓ Example, illegal connections, meter tampering or bypassing and meter inaccuracies.
7. Water losses

• Real losses: Represents the majority of water losses

✓ It comprise leakage, overflow and wastage from trunk mains, distribution pipework,
storage facilities and service connections.

✓ Water loss = Total input into the system – Amount supplied to legitimate
consumption, usually 15-40 % of the total consumption.

4/7/2022 BY M.F 15

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፫. Per capita demand(q)

• It is the annual average amount of daily water required by one person, and
includes all demand types.
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑦 𝑤𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟
𝑞 𝑙𝑐𝑑 =
365 ∗ 𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

Where; q = liter per capita per day

365 = number of days in a year

4/7/2022 BY M.F 16

8
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፬. Factors affecting water demand

1. Characteristics of the Population (Socio- economic Status)

2. Climatic conditions

3. Size of the city

4. Industrial and commercial activity

5. Pressure in the distribution system

6. Development of sewerage facility

7. System of supply, policy of metering and method of charging etc.

4/7/2022 BY M.F 17

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፬. Factors affecting water demand

• Per capita demand is largely dependent up on the economic status of the
1. Socio-economic status

consumers and will differ greatly in various sections of a city.

• In Ethiopia there are four groups in order to adjust the water demand by socio-
economic adjustment factor.
Group Description Factor
Towns enjoying high living standards and with very high
A 1.1
potential for development
Towns having a very high potential for development but lower
B 1.05
living standard at present
C Towns under normal Ethiopian conditions 1
D Rural Villages 0.9
(Source: Ministry of water resources urban water supply design criteria January, 2006)

4/7/2022 BY M.F 18

9
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፬. Factors affecting water demand

• Much water will be used in dry season.
Climatic adjustment factor based on
Climatic adjustment factor based rainfall topography elevation
2. Climatic condition

Mean Annual Altitude (m) Factor

Group Factor
Precipitation (mm) >3300 0.80
A 600 or less 1.1 2300-3300 0.90
B 601 – 900 1 1500-2300 1.00
C 901 or more 0.9 500-1500 1.30
<500 1.50
(Source: Ministry of water resources urban
water supply design criteria January, 2006) (Source: Design Guideline for Water Supply Projects,
Oromia Water Works Design and Supervision
Enterprise (December, 2008)

4/7/2022 BY M.F 19

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፭. Variation in rate of consumption

• Consumers draw water as and when they require it and consequently the
demand for water varies both hourly, daily and seasonally.
1. Seasonal variation

• The water demand varies from season to season.

• During summer season the water demand becomes maximum:

✓ Because the people will use more water in bathing, cooling, lawn watering and street
sprinkling.

• Seasonal peak factors will vary between 1.0 and 1.2, representing the relative
increase in the average daily demand during hot season.

4/7/2022 BY M.F 20

10
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፭. Variation in rate of consumption

• Any communities exhibit a demand cycle that is higher in one day of the year
than in others.

• The maximum daily consumption (demand) is usually taken as 180% of the

2. Daily variation

average consumption as per IS.

Maximum day factor (Ethiopia case)

Population Maximum day
No.
(Source: Ministry of water resources range factor
urban water supply design criteria 1 0- 20,000 1.3
January, 2006) 2 20,001-50,000 1.25
3 50001and above 1.2

4/7/2022 BY M.F 21

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፭. Variation in rate of consumption

• The peak hour demand is the highest demand in any one hour over the year.

• It represents the diurnal variation in water demand resulting from behavioral

patterns of the local population.
3. Hourly variation

Peak hour demand factor (Ethiopia case) Peak hour demand factor (Indian case)
No. Population range Peak hour factor Population range Peak factor
1 0 - 20,000 2 Up to 50,000 3
2 20,001 - 50,000 1.9 50,000 – 200,000 2.5
3 50,001 – 100,000 1.8 Above 200,000 2
3 100,000 and above 1.6
(Source: Ministry of water resources urban water (Source: GOI manual on water supply)
supply design criteria January, 2006)
Q: What is the reason behind the invers relationship
between population size and peak factors?
4/7/2022 BY M.F 22

11
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፭. Variation in rate of consumption

• Peak hour factor for Dangla town water supply scheme
3. Hourly variation

4/7/2022 BY M.F 23

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፮. Capacity of water supply components

• Effect of demand variation on design of water supply components is illustrated
as follow.

Water
Source Intake Service DS
Raw water main treatment clear water main Distribution main
reservoir
plant

Designed by 33% of Designed by max. of

Designed by MDD
MDD PHD&CD

4/7/2022 BY M.F 24

12
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፯. Design period and population forecast's

• A water supply scheme includes huge and costly structures which cannot be
replaced or increased in their capacities easily and conveniently.

• Design period is a future period or number of years for which a provision is

made in designing the capacities of the various components of the water supply
1. Design period

scheme.

• A scheme designed for a design period number of years is supposed to serve

satisfactorily the community needs to the end of design period.

• The design period should neither be too long nor should it be too short
Q: What will be the problem if the design period
is either too long or too short?

4/7/2022 BY M.F 25

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፯. Design period and population forecast's

• Design period is governed by the following factors.

i. Useful life of component structures.

Economic Lives for major units of water supply system.

1. Design period

S .No Name of unit Average design period in year

1 Bore hole 20
2 Electromechanical equipment 15
3 Distribution ( pipe line ) 30
4 Masonry/solid block water tank 25
5 Concrete water tanks 50
6 Springs 20
7 Storage dam 50

4/7/2022 BY M.F 26

13
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፯. Design period and population forecast's

• Design period is governed by the following factors.

ii. Ease and difficulty that is likely to be faced in expansion.

iii. Amount and availability of additional investments likely to be incurred for

1. Design period

additional provisions.

iv. The rate of interest on borrowing and the additional money invested.

v. Anticipated rate of population growth, including the possible shifts in

communities, industries and commercial establishments.

vi. Regulatory constraints

4/7/2022 BY M.F 27

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፯. Design period and population forecast's

• Knowing the base population alongside with some indications of future growth
2. Population forecasting

trends would enable to design a reliable and sustainable water supply system.

• Several methods are used to forecast population, the following factors should be
considered to choose the best one.
✓ The city and its environs ✓ Location with regard to rail or water
✓ Its trade territory shipment of raw materials and

✓ Whether or not its industries are expanding ✓ Manufactured goods

✓ The state of development in the surrounding country

4/7/2022 BY M.F 28

14
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፯. Design period and population forecast's

• Common population growth models:
2. Population forecasting

Arithmetic increase method Geometric increase method

pn = Po + nK 𝑟 n
pn = po 1 +
Where; 100
Pn= population at nth year Where; Pn= Population at nth year

Po= present population Po= Present population

k= Average population growth r = Growth rate in %

n= Number of years, decades, etc. n = Number of years, decades, etc.

4/7/2022 BY M.F 29

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፯. Design period and population forecast's

• Population growth rate based on 1994 CSA data
2. Population forecasting

Year Urban Rural 𝑙𝑛 𝑃𝑛 − 𝑙𝑛 𝑃𝑜

1995-2000 4.3 2.74 𝑟=
∆𝑇
2000-2005 4.1 2.57 𝑛 𝑃2
2005-2010 4.06 2.33 𝑟= −1
2010-2015 3.88 2.15 𝑃1
2015-2020 3.69 1.98 Where;
2020-2025 3.51 1.68 P1= Initial population
2025-2030 3.35 1.41 P2= Final known population
ΔT= Number of years, decades, etc. between P1
& P2

4/7/2022 BY M.F 30

15
 4/7/2022

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፯. Design period and population forecast's

Incremental increase method
2. Population forecasting

• The growth rate is assumed to be progressively increasing or decreasing:

✓ depending upon whether the average of the incremental increases in the past
data is positive or negative
𝑛 𝑛 + 1 𝐾′
𝑃𝑛 = 𝑃𝑜 + 𝑛𝐾 +
2
Where; Pn= Population at nth year
K = Average increase of population of known decades
K’ = Average of incremental increases of the known decades

4/7/2022 BY M.F 31

BAHIR DAR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

፯. Design period and population forecast's

𝑃𝑠
Logistic curve method 𝑃𝑛 =
2. Population forecasting

1 + 𝑒 𝑎+𝑏∆𝑡
2𝑃0 𝑃1 𝑃2 − 𝑃1 2 (𝑃0 + 𝑃2 )
𝑃𝑠 =
𝑃0 𝑃2 − 𝑃1 2
1 𝑃0 (𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃1 )
𝑏 = ln
𝑡 𝑃1 (𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃0 )
𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃0
𝑎 = ln
𝑃0
Where:
Pn = Population at the time n from the base
population
t=Period beyond the base year corresponding to
P0 (Year difference from the base year)
Ps = Saturation population
Ideal population growth curve, called
P0, P1 and P2 are consecutive census data
logistic curve
4/7/2022 BY M.F 32

16
 4/7/2022

33

17