Question 1 - Week 3 - Decomposition method

Additive model

Quarter Absents 4QMA Centred AvSeasonal Dev Adjus Seas Dev Deseasonalised Values
Y1 Q1 25 7.41 17.59
Q2 13 21.50 -9.28 22.28
Q3 20 22.50 22.00 -2.00 -2.91 22.91
Q4 28 22.00 22.25 5.75 4.78 23.22
Y2 Q1 29 21.00 21.50 7.50 7.41 21.59
Q2 11 19.75 20.38 -9.38 -9.28 20.28
Q3 16 19.00 19.38 -3.38 -2.91 18.91
Q4 23 18.50 18.75 4.25 4.78 18.22
Y3 Q1 26 18.00 18.25 7.75 7.41 18.59
Q2 9 17.50 17.75 -8.75 -9.28 18.28
Q3 14 -2.91 16.91
Q4 21 4.78 16.22

Y1 Y2 Y3 Mean Seas D
Q1 7.50 7.75 7.63
Q2 -9.38 -8.75 -9.06
Q3 -2.00 -3.38 -2.69
Q4 5.75 4.25 5.00

Sum 0.88
Adjustment per quarter required to make the Sum 0 = -0.88/4 -0.22

There is a downward trend in the data.

Quarter 1 is the peak period for absenteeism. In this quarter on average absenteeism exceed
the trend by 7.41 absentees. Absenteeism is at its lowest in quarter 2

Assume the Trend forecast for 1st quarter -4th year = 14. You find this by extending the tren

After adding the average deviation for Q1 21.4

Deseasonalised figure
Actual Seas dev Deseasonalised value
Y3 Q3 14 -2.91 16.91
Y3 Q4 21 4.78 16.22

The deseasonalised values represent the combination of the trend and the error.
 35

30

25

20
Column B

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Adjusted Seas dev

7.41
-9.28
-2.91 35.00
4.78
30.00

25.00

Absents
20.00
4QMA
Centred Av
15.00

absenteeism exceed 10.00

5.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

find this by extending the trend line (of course it is a subjective estimate).
 Column B

12

Absents
4QMA
Centred Av