Running Head: SIR Model for TB in the Mozambican Context

The SIR Model in Relation to TB in the

Context of the Mozambican Population
Mathematics Standard Level – Internal Assessment

IB Candidate Code: hzd799

Session: November 2020
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Table of Contents

Contents
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................... 1
The SIR Model in Relation to TB in the Context of the Mozambican Population .............................................. 2
Rationale ........................................................................................................................................................ 2
Estimating the Dynamics of TB in the Mozambican Population for the Years of 2020, 2021, and 2022 ...... 2
Introduction and Aim ................................................................................................................................. 2
The SIR Model for Infectious Diseases and its Necessary Assumptions .................................................... 3
The Variables in This Investigation ............................................................................................................ 4
Initial Equations for Changes in the Values of , , and .................................................................... 5
Obtaining the Values of , , and .................................................................................................... 7
Preparation for Solving the Equations Using the Forward Euler Method ................................................. 8
Does the SIR Model Predict that the Targets From the Global Plan to End TB Will be Achieved in
Mozambique? ............................................................................................................................................ 9
Evaluation and Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 13
Works Cited ...................................................................................................................................................... 15
Appendices....................................................................................................................................................... 19
Appendix 1: SIR TB Proportions of the Mozambican Population for 2020, 2021, and 2022 ....................... 19
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The SIR Model in Relation to TB in the Context of the Mozambican

Population
Rationale
With the outbreak of the new Corona Virus at the end of 2019 and the pandemic of the COVID-19
disease that spread in 2020, many other infectious diseases seem to have been put aside by the
world. These include malaria, cholera, measles, and tuberculosis, and this last one is still ―the
world’s deadliest disease, according to the World Health Organization‖ (Willige). Because I live in
a country that was ranked as the 17th in Tuberculosis incidence worldwide in 2006 (Global
Tuberculosis Control) and that has the high mean rate of 551 incidence cases per 100,000
inhabitants (World Health Organization, ―Tuberculosis Profile in Mozambique‖), I believe it is
relevant and important to expand investigations about Tuberculosis in my country, Mozambique.
According to the Stop TB Partership, the high number of incidences of Tuberculosis (TB) has not
declined for more than a decade and ―persistent low case detection rates (currently at 45%) is a
major challenge, meaning that 55% of the estimated people with TB (total= 85,5301) are missing‖
(Stop TB Partnership, Challenge Facility for Civil Society Round 8).

These overwhelming and worrying numbers have, for a long time, been a priority to the
Mozambican health ministry. As far as I remember, from a very young age I have always witnessed
campaigns that had the objective of alerting the population about the dangers of TB and there were
always posters and pamphlets spread throughout the cities. However, all of this has recently been
replaced by material regarding the outbreak of COVID-19. Thus, the impression created is that
tuberculosis is no longer a danger to society, which evidently does not portray reality. It is
important that people realize that tuberculosis still exists and, like COVID-19, it ―is a global
pandemic, killing someone approximately every 21 seconds (TB Alliance). It was for all these
reasons that I decided to investigate the incidence of tuberculosis in Mozambique for the present
year and the two years after it.

Estimating the Dynamics of TB in the Mozambican Population for the Years

of 2020, 2021, and 2022

Introduction and Aim

The Global Plan to End TB is a plan designed to reach the United Nations tuberculosis targets by
December 31, 2022. This plan was initiated in 2018 and it proposes a ―90-(90)-90‖ targets people-
centered approach: ―reach at least 90% of all people with TB‖, ―reach at least (90)% of the key
populations‖, and ―achieve at least 90% treatment success‖ (Stop TB Partnership, The Paradigm
Shift 2018-2022 34-35). I was particularly intrigued by this plan because of its specificity and
detailed methodology. I am a person that likes organization and structured ideas, so the Global Plan
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to End TB is very appealing to me. And this plan is of great importance as it is part of an even
bigger project, the END TB Strategy, also created by the WHO, which ends in 2035 and aims to end
the tuberculosis epidemic (World Health Organization, ―The End TB Startegy‖). However, even
though this plan has made use of mathematical modeling such as the TB Impact and Model
Estimates (TIME) (47) to establish its goals and expect realistic scenarios, the calculations involved
in the process are not explicitly presented or explained in the official document that has been
published.

Using a simpler mathematical model for infectious diseases – the SIR model, the present
investigation aims to study the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in Mozambique from 2020, the
present year, to 2022, when every country involved in the End TB Partnership is expected to have
achieved the ―90-(90)-90‖ targets. However, because of the limitations of this model, it will only be
possible to do this in relation to the first and third targets.

The SIR Model for Infectious Diseases and its Necessary Assumptions
The Susceptible-Infectives-Recovered (SIR) model is one of the simplest models for analyzing the
behavior of an infectious disease among a given population for a given time. Its initial version was
originally presented by Kermack and McKendrick in 1927 in the publication of ―A Contribution to
the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics‖. As Philipps et al. explain, ―in the SIR model, individuals
begin their lives in the susceptible (S) class, enter the infectious (I) class as they contract the
disease, and finally move to the recovered (R) class‖ (3). So, the total population is divided into
these three categories where the suceptibles are those who have not gotten the disease and have the
biological potential to do so, the infectives are those who have the disease and can pass it to others,
and the recovered are the ones who have been through treatment therapies and no longer have the
disease. Other mathematicians like Tom Crawford, also state that the ―R‖ letter is not only
applicable to the recovered group but that it also includes the people who have died from the
disease and therefore, they also refer to it as the ―removed population‖. It is presumable that in the
case where a disease has vaccination available or any other form of effective preventive method,
like TB does, the ones who have had access to these treatments will also be part of the removed
population, as they would neither be susceptible nor infective.

For the purpose of simplifying the model from a real-life context into the hypothetical context of an
investigation, it is necessary that assumptions are made. Dr. Tom Crawford, from the Oxford
University, clearly explains these assumptions and why they are necessary. According to him, the
first assumption that has to be done is that the population will remain constant for the time period
being studied. This means that there will be no additions to the population size, and as a result, the
time-frame for the investigation must not be too large, otherwise results might be excessively
different from reality. A constant population means that there will be no births and no immigration.
The second assumption he points out is that the rate of increase in the group of the infectives must
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be considered the same as the rate of contact between the suceptibles and the infectives, and this
contact ratio must always be constant and is called the transmission rate. A major limitation of this
assumption, however, is that it may either over amplify or under amplify the consequences of this
interaction, as different infected individuals will carry out different interactions through a day or
even through a year, and the same happens with the susceptible population. Lastly, the third and
final assumption Crawford defines is that the removal rate should also be considered constant,
being that recovery, or death (or prevention), and recovery means total immunity so, this is a
unidirectional model.

Hence, in order to develop the SIR model in a specific hypothetical scenario it is important to note
that (i) susceptibles (S) either remain aseptic or get infected, (ii) that infected (I) individuals become
immediately infectious and remain infectious until they are convalesced, and that (iii) a removed
(R) person will never be susceptible to getting the disease again, they become immune.

The Variables in This Investigation

All variables and resulting equations that govern this model and this particular investigation revolve
around the values of S, I, and R. Since this study is an estimate of the future and the possible results
Mozambique might have at the end of the Global Plan to End TB by 2022, the numbers used will
be based on population projections provided by the National Statistics Institute (Instituto Naciaonal
de Estatísticas – INS), and the estimates the United Nations and the Global Plan to End TB have
established themselves.

The independent variable for this study will be time, because the SIR model explains the
development of infectious diseases as a function of a period of time. Time, in this investigation will
be represented by t.

The dependent variables will be the values of S, I, and R as a matter of time (t):

, the number of individuals that are susceptible to getting TB;

, the number of individuals that have been infected by TB and are infectious;

, the number of individuals that have permanently recovered from a TB infection and are
considered immune.

For simplification purposes, , , and will often be simply referred to as S, I, and R, but these
dependent variables will always be a function of the independent variable, time (t).

In the context of TB in Mozambique, the susceptible individuals will be all people living in this
country during the selected time periods (2020–2022) that will not have had tuberculosis and that
will never have had it.
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The category of infected people will be of those in Mozambique that will have TB during the time
periods that this investigation covers.

In this study, the R group will only include recovered individuals, excluding people who will have
died from TB, will have gone through some form of preventive therapy, or will have taken the BCG
(Bacillus Calmette–Guérin) vaccine, which prevents from some forms of TB (MISAU, Manual para
o Manejo da Tuberculose na Criança, no Adolescente e na Mulher Grávida 130). ―BCG is the only
Vaccine against tuberculosis‖ (Okafor, Rewane, and Momodu) and it is expected to be given to
children at birth (MISAU, Manual de Tuberculose infantil em Moçambique 33) or until they are 23
months old, as part of Mozambique’s Extended Vaccination Program (Programa Alargado de
Vacinação – PAV) (MISAU, Manual para o Manejo da Tuberculose na Criança, no Adolescente e
na Mulher Grávida 130). This means that at least for the three years this investigation will study,
almost every new born is expected to have received the BCG vaccine.

These three categories of individuals (death from TB, preventive-therapy, and BCG-vaccinated)
will be excluded from the removed group because first, no statistical information could be found
regarding the yearly predictions of deaths caused by TB in Mozambique until 2022; secondly,
because preventive therapy in Mozambique is usually only given to people who have been in close
contact with an infected person (Manual de Diagnóstico e Tratamento de Tuberculose Resistente e
Multi-Droga Resistente, 43; MISAU, Manual para o Manejo da Tuberculose na Criança, no
Adolescente e na Mulher Grávida 119) and these numbers have still not been well quantified even
in population projections; and thirdly, because the BCG vaccine, like the other aspects, also does
not seem to have statistical population coverage estimates and it yet only provides protection to a
limited amount of TB forms and to a 60-80% degree (MISAU, Manual para o Manejo da
Tuberculose na Criança, no Adolescente e na Mulher Grávida 130).

Unlike new diseases that keep emerging around the world, where at the beginning of the outbreak
there is no clear perception about it, and consequently there is still no treatment, in the case of TB
there is already a large number of people who have recovered from the disease, just like there are
people who will be in the susceptible group and in the infectious. These values from the beginning
of the investigation will be represented as , , and . In these cases, 0 indicates the initial time
(t) of the investigation, and so is the initial number of susceptibles, is the initial number of
infectives, and is the initial value of recovered people. These are the naught values.

Initial Equations for Changes in the Values of , , and

The rate of change in the group of the susceptibles will be indicated by the following equation,

( )
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where the derivative notation (d) indicates the change in S in relation to the change in t, and r is the
transmission rate between susceptibles and infectives. The value of r is negative because, as it is
proposed by the second assumption the model requires, it is expected that there will be a decrease in
the amount of susceptible individuals as they become infected. This of course will depend on the
amount of people who are still susceptible to getting TB and those that have already been infected,
and that is exactly what the multiplication between I and S indicates. This equation is expected to
explain how the number of susceptible individuals decreases (changes) as more people pass on to the
infected group.

The rate of change in the group of infected/infectives will be indicated by the following equation,

where the derivative notation (d) indicates a change in I in relation to the change in t, and r is the
transmission rate between susceptibles and infectives. The value of r is positive because, opposing
what happened with the susceptible population, it is expected that the infected population increases
over time, as it is also proposed by the second assumption from the SIR model. That is why the rate
of change in I is initially directly proportional to that in S, as the loss in S is the gain in I. However,
when the last portion of the equation is added (-a * I), we understand that the situation might not be
as unfortunate as it seemed. In this equation, a is the rate of recovery and it indicates the amount of
people who are permanently recuperated from a TB infection.

The rate of change in the group of the recovered will be indicated by the following equation,

where the derivative notation (d) indicates a change in R in relation to the change in t, and a is the
rate of recovery. The right side of this equation is directly proportional to the last portion of the
previous equation because the loss in I will be the gain in R. And this, of course, is the aspect that
interests us the most in this investigation, as it will indicate how much it will have been possible to
reduce TB levels in Mozambique to a minimum by 2022, following the Global Plan to End TB.

These three equations to find the rate of change in , , and have been well explained by
Crawford and Sullivan (“SIR Model For Disease Spread- 1‖). It is important to note that the values of r
and a will be constant. And because the values of , , and all add up as the total population,
that will mean that the net changes ( ) in the population that result from the three equations
explained above will add up to zero (0). So, , which means that (
) .
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Obtaining the Values of , , and

As it has been mentioned above, , , and are the naught values for the dependent variables of
this investigation. These values are not given explicitly in any documents about the incidence of
tuberculosis in Mozambique and its development over time, and therefore, need to be calculated or
assumed.

Because the present study will be calculating TB numbers in Mozambique for a period of three
years (2020, 2021, and 2022), there will be a need for one new set of the naught values for each
year. That is because when doing these calculations, the population will be held constant for one
year, as it is explained by the first assumption of the SIR model. Keeping the same population
values for a period of three years would be extremely unrealistic, and therefore, affect the results in
a negative way; more than keeping a constant population for one year only. That means that the
same calculations will have to be made three times and that the results obtained for 2020 will affect
those for 2021 and 2022, and the ones for 2021 will affect those of 2022.

for a specific year will be obtained by subtracting the people in Mozambique who are expected
to have been infected by TB in that year and the people who are expected to have recovered in the
previous year from the total population (N) projection for that year.

( ) ( ) ( ( )) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ( ) ( )) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ( ) ( )) ( )

for a specific year will be obtained directly from notifications targets estimated for Mozambique
by the Stop TB Partnership. Those will be the amount of people who are expected to have been
infected (and posteriorly successfully treated) by TB in that year.

( ) ( )

( ) ( )

( ) ( )

for a specific year will also be obtained directly from the notifications targets from the Stop TB
Partnership. Those will be the amount of people who are expected to have been successfully treated
from tuberculosis in the previous year to the one under analysis, a value that will pass on to the
following year as to be used as the naught.

( ) ( )

( ) ( )
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( ) ( )

All the data used to establish , , and have been collected from the Stop TB Partnership (―TB
diagnosis and treatment targets‖ 4), from where information could be used to get the amount of TB
infected and recovered individuals that is expected to exist in each year, and the population
projections provided by the National Statistics Institute of Mozambique [Instituto Nacional De
Estatística] (INE) from 2007 to 2040.

As it is pointed out by Dr. Tom Crawford, the rate of change of in the susceptible population is
always negative, as it is shown in the equation used to calculate it, ―so this tells us that must
always be smaller than its initial value‖ (Crawford 00:07:34 - 00:07:41). That will mean that
* + .

It is important to note that, in this study, the initial date for each year will be January 1st always, and
consequently, the final date for each year will be December 31st.

Preparation for Solving the Equations Using the Forward Euler Method
The calculations that will be made to estimate TB numbers in Mozambique for 2020, 2021, and
2022 will be based on the solutions of the equations used for the rate of change in the independent
variables. And this will be done using the forward Euler method, as it is presented by Sullivan (―SIR
Model For Disease Spread- 2‖ 00:03:24 – 00:06:17) and Collins and Abdelal (19-20). This is ―a
method for solving ordinary differential equations‖ (Weisstein).

Beginning with the equation used to calculate the rate of change in the population that will be
considered susceptible to TB ( ( ) ), to solve this equation using Euler’s method, one
must split up the derivative presented in the left side of the equation to be able to predict the change
in the nominator (small change in the suceptibles, i.e. ) according to what was the denominator
(small change in time, i.e. ). This way there can be advancements in time, which will affect the
independent variable of S. Assuming that the change in time is by one day, as it will be used in this
investigation, the derivative can be separated into two days, one being for the initial (day i) and
the second being for the following day (day i+1). The same notation for the first day (i), must be
added to the functions and that are in the right side of the equation represented as I and S just
for the matter of simplicity. Therefore, wherever there should be a t, there will be an i, as this will
be the specific day to be used. The purpose of this whole process is to obtain the number of
individuals from the given population (Mozambican) that will be susceptible in the days after the
investigation has started, starting by day i+1, then I +2, etc. So, at the end, the term that will be
on the left side should be moved to the right side of the equation. All these movements are
presented below:
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( )

( )

( )

( )

And following the same pattern we obtain similar equations for the changes in the infectious and
recovered populations that come from their initial equations to find the rate of change:

( )

and

Does the SIR Model Predict that the Targets From the Global Plan to End TB Will
be Achieved in Mozambique?
The values of , , and have already been estimated for the beginning of each year, according
to the assumptions from the SIR model. Similarly, the equations needed to estimate the changes in
susceptible, infectious, and recovered populations for the days after the 1st of January (day 0 or day
i), have also been structured. Therefore, it will now be possible to calculate the predictions of TB
dynamics for the Mozambican population for the years of 2020, 2021, and 2022, when the Global
Plan to End TB has established that 90% of individuals with TB should have been successfully
reached and treated ((Stop TB Partnership, The Paradigm Shift 2018-2022 34-35).

As it is of greater statistical interest to know the proportion of the Mozambican population that will
be susceptible, infective or recovered at the end of each year than to simply have the number of
individuals in each category, the values of , , and have been converted into percentages. This
could be done because it is evident that ( ). If N represents
100% of Mozambicans, then the proportions of , , and will add up to it. For the matter of
simplicity, however, instead of using 100%, this investigation will use 1 (one) as a representation of
the total amount of N. To achieve this, all percentages for , , , and N have been multiplied by
1 (100/100) and divided by the total population ( , where V is any of the three
variables). The following table presents these values for the three years to be studied, based on
population projections provided by the National Statistics Institute (INS), the estimates from the
WHO and the Global Plan to End TB, and calculations made in this investigation.
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Values for Values for Values for

Data for Each Year 2020 2021 2022
Total Population 29310474 30061139 30822552
Days in the year 366 365 365
S naught 29059774 29774739 30542652
I naught 141900 144500 135400
R naught 108800 141900 144500
Initial Proportion of Susceptibles 0.9914 0.9905 0.9909
InitialProportion of Infectives 0.0048 0.0048 0.0044
Initial Proportion of Removed 0.0037 0.0047 0.0047
Sum of All Proportions: 1.0 1.0 1.0
Table 1 - Values to be Inserted in the Formulae and other Calculations

The other important values that need to be established are the constants for all three years, and these
will be the change in time (dt), the rate of transmission (r), and the rate of recovery (a). The time
change for all three years will be of 1 day, which means that 2020 will have 366 changes in time,
for example (Table 1). The transmission rate (r) will be calculated by transforming the average
infection rate to a decimal number. Since the infection rate for TB is of 5%-10% (Center for
Disease Control and Prevention, ―TB Risk Factors‖), the transmission rate will be of 0.75
(7.5:100), which rounded up will be 0.8. The recovery rate (a) will be calculated using the formula
(Brian Sullivan, ―SIR Model for Disease Spread-3‖ 00:01:27 –
00:01:32). As it takes at least six months (180 days) to treat tuberculosis (Center for Disease
Control and Prevention, ―TB Disease‖), . Table 2 shows these three
constant parameters that are fundamental for all the calculations that have to be done.

Constant Parameters
dt 1
Transmission Rate [r] 0.08
Recovery Rate [a] 0.01
Table 2 - Constant Parameters for TB in Mozambique in this Investigation

With the variables, parameters (Table 2), and specific data for each year (Table 1), the dynamics of
TB for the years of 2020, 2021, and 2022 can now be calculated in the context of the Mozambican
population using the expressions
( ) , ( ) , and , which have been
explained in the previous section. These formulae are inserted in a spreadsheet to allow for more
efficient calculations for the three years. The complete tables with raw data that show the results for
each day of each year can be found in the appendices (Appendix 1). For better illustration, the SIR
graphs for each year are presented below.
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The Dynamics of TB in the Mozambican Population for 2020

According to the SIR Model
Proportion of the Population

1.000
0.800
0.600 Susceptible
0.400 Infective
0.200 Removed
0.000

113

225
127
141
155
169
183
197
211

239
253
267
281
295
309
323
337
351
365
1
15
29
43
57
71
85
99 Days
Days

Figure 1 – SIR Graph for TB in Mozambique for 2020

The Dynamics of TB in the Mozambican Population for 2021

According to the SIR Model
Proportion of the Population

1.000
0.800
0.600 Susceptible
0.400 Infective
0.200 Removed
0.000
222
105
118
131
144
157
170
183
196
209

235
248
261
274
287
300
313
326
339
352
365
1
14
27
40
53
66
79
92

Days

Figure 2 - SIR Graph for TB in Mozambique for 2021

The Dynamics of TB in the Mozambican Population for 2022 According

to the SIR Model
Proportion of the Population

1.000
0.800
0.600 Susceptible
0.400 Infective
0.200 Removed

0.000
Days
248
105
118
131
144
157
170
183
196
209
222
235

261
274
287
300
313
326
339
352
365
1
14
27
40
53
66
79
92

Figure 3 - SIR Graph for TB in Mozambique for 2022

 12

Even though Figures 1, 2, and 3 may look identical to the naked eye, their actual values are quite
distinct, which results from their also different initial values of , , , and N. (See Appendix 1
for raw and more detailed data). However, there is one similarity that cannot be ignored, and that is
the time of the year at which there is the peak (the maximum amount) on the number of infectious
individuals, which occurs when the slope of the susceptibles and of the removed become the same
after their lines intersect. As it can be seen in all three graphs, this will usually happen between days
99 and 113, which fall under the second to fourth weeks of April, every year. This could be an
important indicator for health organizations, as in the days leading to this peak, more people in the
population would be in need of treatment. Therefore, provisions at this time of the year should be
higher. Likewise, it can be noticed that in all three graphs, the lines for the susceptible and the
infective will mostly be opposite to each other in terms of trend, which is a visual representation of
their initial, negative direct proportion (from the equations
( ) and ) which will only be altered when the removed start to
increase rapidly (after days 99 and 113), as it is indicated by the last portion of the equation used to
calculate the rate of change in the infectives ( ).

The final proportions of the Mozambican population that are estimated for each group of the SIR
model at the end of each year can be seen in Table 3:

Year 2020 2021 2022

Final Proportion of Susceptibles 0.00001822 0.00001875 0.000019
Final Proportion of Infectives 0.20410081 0.20524074 0.206795
Final Proportion of Removed 0.79588097 0.79474051 0.793186
Sum of All Proportions 1.0 1.0 1.0
Table 3 - SIR Final Proportions of the Mozambican Population in Each Group

The proportions presented in Table 3 are the final indicators that reveal if the SIR model predicts
that the targets established for Mozambique as part of the Global Plan to End TB will be achieved.
In addition, these estimates can be of great value in epidemiology and the medical field in general,
as they can aid in planning for vaccination programs and preparation of treatment material for TB,
as it has already been mentioned. However, it is important to be aware that due to its assumptions
and simplicity, the SIR model does not present the exact numbers that are expected to occur, but an
approximate value. This is also one of the reasons why it might be better to use the proportions of
the population instead of the exact number of individuals that are expected to be in each category.

Taking into consideration the final proportion of the Mozambican population that the SIR model
predicts to be in the removed group by day 365 of 2022 (Table 3), we see that the target of having a
90% rate of successful treatment established by the WHO is not achieved, since only 79.3% of the
previous infected individuals are estimated to have been permanently cured, and therefore removed.
And this is not good, as Mozambique is already at a critical stage in terms TB numbers when
compared to other countries (World Health Organization, ―Tuberculosis Profile in Mozambique‖;
 13

Global Tuberculosis Control). This is even made worse when we see that instead of increasing over
the years, the proportion of recovered people is expected to decrease from 79.5% in 2020 to 79.3%
in 2022 (Table 3). By looking at these values in the form of percentages, one may think there will
not me much difference, however every decimal in a percentage will have a huge significance when
transformed into exact numbers of individuals in millions, and even more when we consider that the
total population in 2022 is expected to have 1,512,078 more people than that of 2020 (Table 1).

Similarly, the overall increase in the infective people over the years (Table 3) is also a bad indicator
in terms of the non-reduction of TB incidence in Mozambique, meaning that not enough people are
being reached. But when this is compared to the overall decrease in the susceptibes, one might be
conducted into the illusionary thought that even though the infectives are increasing, less people
will be in danger of getting tuberculosis. However, as it has been said, this is an illusion because
this investigation did not take into consideration natural immunity, preventive therapies, and the
BCG vaccination numbers (because they are not available in a usable way), meaning that all
individuals who are no longer susceptible will immediately be in the I group before they are
removed.

Evaluation and Conclusion

The SIR model is one of the various mathematical and epidemiological models used to predict the
dynamics of a disease spread in a chosen population over a specific period of time. Its apparent
simplicity and straight forwardness may cause great attraction, however, there are some limitations
that come along with them The main limitation that has been confirmed in this investigation is the
uncertainty of the real applicability of the results for each of the three categories that make the
model (S, I, and R), as the assumptions that have to be done keep a constant population, a constant
transmission rate, and a constant recovery rate, which is very different from the real-life context and
may be misleading when large numbers are involved, like a population in millions.

Another limitation that was specific to this study was the lack of information on vaccination
programs, preventive treatment, and death rates from TB in Mozambique. Not having enough and
usable data on these aspects may also cause the SIR results to be very different from what they will
actually be in the future. As a Mozambican citizen, I am personally worried about the lack of such
information and I think that obtaining more statistics related to TB should be a government priority
for the following years. Without them, it will be harder to work towards the goals that have been
established for and by the country

In conclusion, this study has shown that, according to the SIR model, the TB targets for
Mozambique will not be achieved by 2022, and nor will there be much improvement in reducing
the incidence of the disease, as over the years, more of the susceptible individuals become infected.
 14

This investigation is a clear example of how mathematics can be of huge importance for analyzing
real-life phenomena and it helped me explore my inquiries in a complex and interesting way.
 15

Works Cited
Crawford, Tom. ―Oxford Mathematician Explains SIR Disease Model for COVID-19
(Coronavirus).‖ YouTube, uploaded by Tom Rocks Maths, 18 Mar. 2020,
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 19

Appendices

Appendix 1: SIR TB Proportions of the Mozambican Population for 2020,

2021, and 2022
32 0.954 0.040 0.007

33 0.951 0.042 0.007

Days Proportion of the Population (2020)
34 0.948 0.045 0.007
Day Susceptible Infective Removed
35 0.945 0.048 0.007
0 0.991 0.005 0.004
36 0.941 0.051 0.008
1 0.991 0.005 0.004
37 0.938 0.054 0.008
2 0.991 0.006 0.004
38 0.934 0.058 0.008
3 0.990 0.006 0.004
39 0.930 0.062 0.008
4 0.990 0.006 0.004 40 0.926 0.066 0.009
5 0.989 0.007 0.004 41 0.921 0.070 0.009
6 0.989 0.007 0.004 42 0.916 0.074 0.010

7 0.988 0.008 0.004 43 0.911 0.079 0.010

8 0.988 0.008 0.004 44 0.906 0.084 0.010

9 0.987 0.009 0.004 45 0.900 0.089 0.011

10 0.987 0.009 0.004 46 0.894 0.095 0.011

11 0.986 0.010 0.004 47 0.888 0.100 0.012

12 0.985 0.011 0.004 48 0.881 0.107 0.012

13 0.984 0.011 0.004 49 0.874 0.113 0.013

14 0.983 0.012 0.004 50 0.867 0.120 0.014

15 0.983 0.013 0.004 51 0.859 0.127 0.014

16 0.982 0.014 0.004 52 0.851 0.134 0.015

17 0.981 0.015 0.005 53 0.842 0.142 0.016

18 0.979 0.016 0.005 54 0.833 0.150 0.017

19 0.978 0.017 0.005 55 0.824 0.159 0.017

20 0.977 0.018 0.005 56 0.814 0.168 0.018

21 0.976 0.019 0.005 57 0.804 0.177 0.019

22 0.974 0.021 0.005 58 0.793 0.187 0.020

23 0.973 0.022 0.005 59 0.782 0.197 0.021

24 0.971 0.024 0.005 60 0.770 0.207 0.022

25 0.969 0.025 0.005 61 0.758 0.218 0.023

26 0.968 0.027 0.006 62 0.746 0.230 0.025

27 0.966 0.029 0.006 63 0.733 0.241 0.026

28 0.964 0.031 0.006 64 0.720 0.253 0.027

29 0.961 0.033 0.006 65 0.706 0.265 0.029

30 0.959 0.035 0.006 66 0.692 0.278 0.030

31 0.956 0.037 0.006 67 0.678 0.291 0.032

 1

68 0.663 0.304 0.033 109 0.116 0.724 0.159

69 0.648 0.317 0.035 110 0.110 0.727 0.163

70 0.632 0.331 0.037 111 0.104 0.728 0.167

71 0.617 0.345 0.039 112 0.098 0.730 0.171

72 0.601 0.359 0.041 113 0.093 0.731 0.176

73 0.584 0.373 0.043 114 0.088 0.733 0.180

74 0.568 0.387 0.045 115 0.083 0.733 0.184

75 0.552 0.402 0.047 116 0.079 0.734 0.188

76 0.535 0.416 0.049 117 0.074 0.734 0.192

77 0.518 0.430 0.051 118 0.070 0.734 0.196

78 0.502 0.445 0.054 119 0.066 0.734 0.200

79 0.485 0.459 0.056 120 0.063 0.733 0.204

80 0.468 0.473 0.059 121 0.059 0.733 0.208

81 0.452 0.487 0.061 122 0.056 0.732 0.212

82 0.435 0.501 0.064 123 0.053 0.731 0.216

83 0.419 0.514 0.067 124 0.050 0.730 0.220

84 0.403 0.528 0.070 125 0.047 0.728 0.224

85 0.387 0.541 0.073 126 0.045 0.727 0.228

86 0.371 0.553 0.076 127 0.042 0.725 0.232

87 0.356 0.566 0.079 128 0.040 0.724 0.236

88 0.340 0.578 0.082 129 0.038 0.722 0.240

89 0.326 0.589 0.085 130 0.036 0.720 0.244

90 0.311 0.600 0.088 131 0.034 0.718 0.248

91 0.297 0.611 0.092 132 0.032 0.716 0.252

92 0.284 0.621 0.095 133 0.030 0.713 0.256

93 0.270 0.631 0.099 134 0.029 0.711 0.260

94 0.258 0.640 0.102 135 0.027 0.709 0.264

95 0.245 0.649 0.106 136 0.026 0.706 0.268

96 0.233 0.657 0.109 137 0.024 0.703 0.272

97 0.222 0.665 0.113 138 0.023 0.701 0.276

98 0.211 0.673 0.117 139 0.022 0.698 0.280

99 0.200 0.680 0.120 140 0.021 0.695 0.284

100 0.190 0.686 0.124 141 0.020 0.693 0.288

101 0.180 0.692 0.128 142 0.019 0.690 0.292

102 0.171 0.697 0.132 143 0.018 0.687 0.295

103 0.162 0.703 0.136 144 0.017 0.684 0.299

104 0.153 0.707 0.139 145 0.016 0.681 0.303

105 0.145 0.711 0.143 146 0.015 0.678 0.307

106 0.137 0.715 0.147 147 0.014 0.675 0.311

107 0.130 0.719 0.151 148 0.014 0.672 0.314

108 0.123 0.722 0.155 149 0.013 0.669 0.318

 2

150 0.012 0.666 0.322 191 0.002 0.539 0.459

151 0.012 0.663 0.326 192 0.002 0.536 0.462

152 0.011 0.660 0.329 193 0.002 0.533 0.465

153 0.010 0.657 0.333 194 0.002 0.530 0.468

154 0.010 0.654 0.337 195 0.002 0.527 0.471

155 0.009 0.650 0.340 196 0.001 0.524 0.474

156 0.009 0.647 0.344 197 0.001 0.522 0.477

157 0.009 0.644 0.347 198 0.001 0.519 0.480

158 0.008 0.641 0.351 199 0.001 0.516 0.483

159 0.008 0.638 0.354 200 0.001 0.513 0.486

160 0.007 0.635 0.358 201 0.001 0.510 0.488

161 0.007 0.631 0.362 202 0.001 0.508 0.491

162 0.007 0.628 0.365 203 0.001 0.505 0.494

163 0.006 0.625 0.369 204 0.001 0.502 0.497

164 0.006 0.622 0.372 205 0.001 0.499 0.500

165 0.006 0.619 0.375 206 0.001 0.497 0.502

166 0.006 0.616 0.379 207 0.001 0.494 0.505

167 0.005 0.612 0.382 208 0.001 0.491 0.508

168 0.005 0.609 0.386 209 0.001 0.488 0.511

169 0.005 0.606 0.389 210 0.001 0.486 0.513

170 0.005 0.603 0.392 211 0.001 0.483 0.516

171 0.004 0.600 0.396 212 0.001 0.480 0.519

172 0.004 0.597 0.399 213 0.001 0.478 0.521

173 0.004 0.594 0.402 214 0.001 0.475 0.524

174 0.004 0.590 0.406 215 0.001 0.473 0.527

175 0.004 0.587 0.409 216 0.001 0.470 0.529

176 0.003 0.584 0.412 217 0.001 0.467 0.532

177 0.003 0.581 0.416 218 0.001 0.465 0.535

178 0.003 0.578 0.419 219 0.001 0.462 0.537

179 0.003 0.575 0.422 220 0.001 0.460 0.540

180 0.003 0.572 0.425 221 0.001 0.457 0.542

181 0.003 0.569 0.428 222 0.001 0.455 0.545

182 0.003 0.566 0.432 223 0.001 0.452 0.547

183 0.003 0.563 0.435 224 0.001 0.450 0.550

184 0.002 0.560 0.438 225 0.001 0.447 0.552

185 0.002 0.557 0.441 226 0.000 0.445 0.555

186 0.002 0.554 0.444 227 0.000 0.442 0.557

187 0.002 0.551 0.447 228 0.000 0.440 0.560

188 0.002 0.548 0.450 229 0.000 0.437 0.562

189 0.002 0.545 0.453 230 0.000 0.435 0.565

190 0.002 0.542 0.456 231 0.000 0.433 0.567

 3

232 0.000 0.430 0.569 273 0.000 0.343 0.657

233 0.000 0.428 0.572 274 0.000 0.341 0.659

234 0.000 0.425 0.574 275 0.000 0.339 0.661

235 0.000 0.423 0.577 276 0.000 0.337 0.663

236 0.000 0.421 0.579 277 0.000 0.335 0.665

237 0.000 0.418 0.581 278 0.000 0.333 0.667

238 0.000 0.416 0.584 279 0.000 0.331 0.669

239 0.000 0.414 0.586 280 0.000 0.329 0.670

240 0.000 0.411 0.588 281 0.000 0.328 0.672

241 0.000 0.409 0.591 282 0.000 0.326 0.674

242 0.000 0.407 0.593 283 0.000 0.324 0.676

243 0.000 0.405 0.595 284 0.000 0.322 0.678

244 0.000 0.402 0.597 285 0.000 0.320 0.679

245 0.000 0.400 0.600 286 0.000 0.319 0.681

246 0.000 0.398 0.602 287 0.000 0.317 0.683

247 0.000 0.396 0.604 288 0.000 0.315 0.685

248 0.000 0.394 0.606 289 0.000 0.313 0.687

249 0.000 0.391 0.608 290 0.000 0.312 0.688

250 0.000 0.389 0.611 291 0.000 0.310 0.690

251 0.000 0.387 0.613 292 0.000 0.308 0.692

252 0.000 0.385 0.615 293 0.000 0.306 0.693

253 0.000 0.383 0.617 294 0.000 0.305 0.695

254 0.000 0.381 0.619 295 0.000 0.303 0.697

255 0.000 0.379 0.621 296 0.000 0.301 0.699

256 0.000 0.376 0.623 297 0.000 0.300 0.700

257 0.000 0.374 0.625 298 0.000 0.298 0.702

258 0.000 0.372 0.627 299 0.000 0.296 0.704

259 0.000 0.370 0.630 300 0.000 0.295 0.705

260 0.000 0.368 0.632 301 0.000 0.293 0.707

261 0.000 0.366 0.634 302 0.000 0.291 0.708

262 0.000 0.364 0.636 303 0.000 0.290 0.710

263 0.000 0.362 0.638 304 0.000 0.288 0.712

264 0.000 0.360 0.640 305 0.000 0.287 0.713

265 0.000 0.358 0.642 306 0.000 0.285 0.715

266 0.000 0.356 0.644 307 0.000 0.283 0.716

267 0.000 0.354 0.646 308 0.000 0.282 0.718

268 0.000 0.352 0.648 309 0.000 0.280 0.720

269 0.000 0.350 0.650 310 0.000 0.279 0.721

270 0.000 0.348 0.652 311 0.000 0.277 0.723

271 0.000 0.346 0.654 312 0.000 0.276 0.724

272 0.000 0.344 0.655 313 0.000 0.274 0.726

 4

314 0.000 0.273 0.727 355 0.000 0.217 0.783

315 0.000 0.271 0.729 356 0.000 0.216 0.784

316 0.000 0.270 0.730 357 0.000 0.215 0.785

317 0.000 0.268 0.732 358 0.000 0.213 0.787

318 0.000 0.267 0.733 359 0.000 0.212 0.788

319 0.000 0.265 0.735 360 0.000 0.211 0.789

320 0.000 0.264 0.736 361 0.000 0.210 0.790

321 0.000 0.262 0.738 362 0.000 0.209 0.791

322 0.000 0.261 0.739 363 0.000 0.208 0.792

323 0.000 0.259 0.741 364 0.000 0.206 0.794

324 0.000 0.258 0.742 365 0.000 0.205 0.795

325 0.000 0.256 0.744 366 0.000 0.204 0.796

326 0.000 0.255 0.745

327 0.000 0.254 0.746

Days Proportion of the Population (2021)
328 0.000 0.252 0.748
Day Susceptible Infective Removed
329 0.000 0.251 0.749
0 0.990 0.005 0.005
330 0.000 0.249 0.751
1 0.990 0.005 0.005
331 0.000 0.248 0.752
2 0.990 0.005 0.005
332 0.000 0.247 0.753

333 0.000 0.245 0.755 3 0.989 0.006 0.005

334 0.000 0.244 0.756 4 0.989 0.006 0.005

335 0.000 0.243 0.757 5 0.988 0.007 0.005

336 0.000 0.241 0.759 6 0.988 0.007 0.005

337 0.000 0.240 0.760 7 0.987 0.008 0.005

338 0.000 0.239 0.761 8 0.987 0.008 0.005

339 0.000 0.237 0.763 9 0.986 0.009 0.005

340 0.000 0.236 0.764 10 0.986 0.009 0.005
341 0.000 0.235 0.765 11 0.985 0.010 0.005
342 0.000 0.233 0.767 12 0.984 0.011 0.005
343 0.000 0.232 0.768 13 0.983 0.011 0.005
344 0.000 0.231 0.769 14 0.983 0.012 0.005
345 0.000 0.229 0.771 15 0.982 0.013 0.005
346 0.000 0.228 0.772 16 0.981 0.014 0.005
347 0.000 0.227 0.773 17 0.980 0.015 0.006
348 0.000 0.226 0.774 18 0.979 0.016 0.006
349 0.000 0.224 0.776 19 0.977 0.017 0.006
350 0.000 0.223 0.777 20 0.976 0.018 0.006
351 0.000 0.222 0.778 21 0.975 0.019 0.006
352 0.000 0.221 0.779 22 0.973 0.021 0.006
353 0.000 0.219 0.781 23 0.972 0.022 0.006
354 0.000 0.218 0.782 24 0.970 0.023 0.006
 5

25 0.969 0.025 0.006 66 0.694 0.275 0.031

26 0.967 0.027 0.007 67 0.679 0.288 0.033

27 0.965 0.028 0.007 68 0.665 0.301 0.034

28 0.963 0.030 0.007 69 0.650 0.315 0.036

29 0.961 0.032 0.007 70 0.634 0.328 0.038

30 0.958 0.035 0.007 71 0.619 0.342 0.039

31 0.956 0.037 0.007 72 0.603 0.356 0.041

32 0.953 0.039 0.008 73 0.587 0.370 0.043

33 0.950 0.042 0.008 74 0.570 0.384 0.045

34 0.947 0.045 0.008 75 0.554 0.399 0.047

35 0.944 0.048 0.008 76 0.537 0.413 0.050

36 0.941 0.051 0.009 77 0.521 0.427 0.052

37 0.937 0.054 0.009 78 0.504 0.442 0.054

38 0.934 0.057 0.009 79 0.487 0.456 0.057

39 0.929 0.061 0.009 80 0.471 0.470 0.059

40 0.925 0.065 0.010 81 0.454 0.484 0.062

41 0.921 0.069 0.010 82 0.438 0.498 0.065

42 0.916 0.074 0.011 83 0.421 0.511 0.067

43 0.911 0.078 0.011 84 0.405 0.525 0.070

44 0.906 0.083 0.011 85 0.389 0.538 0.073

45 0.900 0.088 0.012 86 0.373 0.550 0.076

46 0.894 0.094 0.012 87 0.358 0.563 0.079

47 0.888 0.100 0.013 88 0.343 0.575 0.082

48 0.881 0.106 0.013 89 0.328 0.586 0.085

49 0.874 0.112 0.014 90 0.314 0.598 0.089

50 0.867 0.119 0.015 91 0.300 0.608 0.092

51 0.859 0.126 0.015 92 0.286 0.619 0.095

52 0.851 0.133 0.016 93 0.273 0.628 0.099

53 0.842 0.141 0.017 94 0.260 0.638 0.102

54 0.834 0.149 0.017 95 0.247 0.647 0.106

55 0.824 0.158 0.018 96 0.235 0.655 0.109

56 0.814 0.166 0.019 97 0.224 0.663 0.113

57 0.804 0.176 0.020 98 0.213 0.670 0.117

58 0.794 0.185 0.021 99 0.202 0.677 0.121

59 0.783 0.195 0.022 100 0.192 0.684 0.124

60 0.771 0.206 0.023 101 0.182 0.690 0.128

61 0.759 0.216 0.024 102 0.173 0.696 0.132

62 0.747 0.227 0.026 103 0.164 0.701 0.136

63 0.734 0.239 0.027 104 0.155 0.705 0.140

64 0.721 0.251 0.028 105 0.147 0.710 0.144

65 0.708 0.263 0.030 106 0.139 0.714 0.148

 6

107 0.131 0.717 0.152 148 0.014 0.672 0.314

108 0.124 0.720 0.156 149 0.013 0.669 0.318

109 0.118 0.723 0.160 150 0.012 0.666 0.322

110 0.111 0.725 0.164 151 0.012 0.663 0.326

111 0.105 0.727 0.168 152 0.011 0.660 0.329

112 0.100 0.729 0.172 153 0.011 0.656 0.333

113 0.094 0.730 0.176 154 0.010 0.653 0.337

114 0.089 0.731 0.180 155 0.010 0.650 0.340

115 0.084 0.732 0.184 156 0.009 0.647 0.344

116 0.079 0.733 0.188 157 0.009 0.644 0.347

117 0.075 0.733 0.192 158 0.008 0.641 0.351

118 0.071 0.733 0.196 159 0.008 0.638 0.355

119 0.067 0.733 0.200 160 0.007 0.634 0.358

120 0.063 0.733 0.204 161 0.007 0.631 0.362

121 0.060 0.732 0.208 162 0.007 0.628 0.365

122 0.057 0.731 0.212 163 0.006 0.625 0.369

123 0.053 0.730 0.216 164 0.006 0.622 0.372

124 0.051 0.729 0.220 165 0.006 0.619 0.376

125 0.048 0.728 0.224 166 0.006 0.615 0.379

126 0.045 0.726 0.228 167 0.005 0.612 0.382

127 0.043 0.725 0.233 168 0.005 0.609 0.386

128 0.040 0.723 0.237 169 0.005 0.606 0.389

129 0.038 0.721 0.241 170 0.005 0.603 0.393

130 0.036 0.719 0.245 171 0.004 0.600 0.396

131 0.034 0.717 0.249 172 0.004 0.597 0.399

132 0.032 0.715 0.253 173 0.004 0.593 0.403

133 0.031 0.713 0.257 174 0.004 0.590 0.406

134 0.029 0.711 0.260 175 0.004 0.587 0.409

135 0.027 0.708 0.264 176 0.004 0.584 0.412

136 0.026 0.706 0.268 177 0.003 0.581 0.416

137 0.025 0.703 0.272 178 0.003 0.578 0.419

138 0.023 0.701 0.276 179 0.003 0.575 0.422

139 0.022 0.698 0.280 180 0.003 0.572 0.425

140 0.021 0.695 0.284 181 0.003 0.569 0.428

141 0.020 0.692 0.288 182 0.003 0.566 0.432

142 0.019 0.690 0.292 183 0.003 0.563 0.435

143 0.018 0.687 0.295 184 0.002 0.560 0.438

144 0.017 0.684 0.299 185 0.002 0.557 0.441

145 0.016 0.681 0.303 186 0.002 0.554 0.444

146 0.015 0.678 0.307 187 0.002 0.551 0.447

147 0.014 0.675 0.311 188 0.002 0.548 0.450

 7

189 0.002 0.545 0.453 230 0.000 0.435 0.565

190 0.002 0.542 0.456 231 0.000 0.433 0.567

191 0.002 0.539 0.459 232 0.000 0.430 0.569

192 0.002 0.536 0.462 233 0.000 0.428 0.572

193 0.002 0.533 0.465 234 0.000 0.425 0.574

194 0.002 0.530 0.468 235 0.000 0.423 0.577

195 0.002 0.527 0.471 236 0.000 0.421 0.579

196 0.002 0.524 0.474 237 0.000 0.418 0.581

197 0.001 0.522 0.477 238 0.000 0.416 0.584

198 0.001 0.519 0.480 239 0.000 0.414 0.586

199 0.001 0.516 0.483 240 0.000 0.411 0.588

200 0.001 0.513 0.486 241 0.000 0.409 0.591

201 0.001 0.510 0.488 242 0.000 0.407 0.593

202 0.001 0.508 0.491 243 0.000 0.405 0.595

203 0.001 0.505 0.494 244 0.000 0.402 0.597

204 0.001 0.502 0.497 245 0.000 0.400 0.600

205 0.001 0.499 0.500 246 0.000 0.398 0.602

206 0.001 0.496 0.502 247 0.000 0.396 0.604

207 0.001 0.494 0.505 248 0.000 0.394 0.606

208 0.001 0.491 0.508 249 0.000 0.391 0.608

209 0.001 0.488 0.511 250 0.000 0.389 0.611

210 0.001 0.486 0.513 251 0.000 0.387 0.613

211 0.001 0.483 0.516 252 0.000 0.385 0.615

212 0.001 0.480 0.519 253 0.000 0.383 0.617

213 0.001 0.478 0.521 254 0.000 0.381 0.619

214 0.001 0.475 0.524 255 0.000 0.379 0.621

215 0.001 0.472 0.527 256 0.000 0.376 0.623

216 0.001 0.470 0.529 257 0.000 0.374 0.625

217 0.001 0.467 0.532 258 0.000 0.372 0.627

218 0.001 0.465 0.535 259 0.000 0.370 0.630

219 0.001 0.462 0.537 260 0.000 0.368 0.632

220 0.001 0.460 0.540 261 0.000 0.366 0.634

221 0.001 0.457 0.542 262 0.000 0.364 0.636

222 0.001 0.455 0.545 263 0.000 0.362 0.638

223 0.001 0.452 0.547 264 0.000 0.360 0.640

224 0.001 0.450 0.550 265 0.000 0.358 0.642

225 0.001 0.447 0.552 266 0.000 0.356 0.644

226 0.000 0.445 0.555 267 0.000 0.354 0.646

227 0.000 0.442 0.557 268 0.000 0.352 0.648

228 0.000 0.440 0.560 269 0.000 0.350 0.650

229 0.000 0.437 0.562 270 0.000 0.348 0.652

 8

271 0.000 0.346 0.654 312 0.000 0.276 0.724

272 0.000 0.344 0.655 313 0.000 0.274 0.726

273 0.000 0.343 0.657 314 0.000 0.273 0.727

274 0.000 0.341 0.659 315 0.000 0.271 0.729

275 0.000 0.339 0.661 316 0.000 0.270 0.730

276 0.000 0.337 0.663 317 0.000 0.268 0.732

277 0.000 0.335 0.665 318 0.000 0.267 0.733

278 0.000 0.333 0.667 319 0.000 0.265 0.735

279 0.000 0.331 0.669 320 0.000 0.264 0.736

280 0.000 0.329 0.670 321 0.000 0.262 0.738

281 0.000 0.328 0.672 322 0.000 0.261 0.739

282 0.000 0.326 0.674 323 0.000 0.259 0.741

283 0.000 0.324 0.676 324 0.000 0.258 0.742

284 0.000 0.322 0.678 325 0.000 0.256 0.744

285 0.000 0.320 0.679 326 0.000 0.255 0.745

286 0.000 0.319 0.681 327 0.000 0.254 0.746

287 0.000 0.317 0.683 328 0.000 0.252 0.748

288 0.000 0.315 0.685 329 0.000 0.251 0.749

289 0.000 0.313 0.687 330 0.000 0.249 0.751

290 0.000 0.312 0.688 331 0.000 0.248 0.752

291 0.000 0.310 0.690 332 0.000 0.247 0.753

292 0.000 0.308 0.692 333 0.000 0.245 0.755

293 0.000 0.306 0.693 334 0.000 0.244 0.756

294 0.000 0.305 0.695 335 0.000 0.243 0.757

295 0.000 0.303 0.697 336 0.000 0.241 0.759

296 0.000 0.301 0.699 337 0.000 0.240 0.760

297 0.000 0.300 0.700 338 0.000 0.239 0.761

298 0.000 0.298 0.702 339 0.000 0.237 0.763

299 0.000 0.296 0.704 340 0.000 0.236 0.764

300 0.000 0.295 0.705 341 0.000 0.235 0.765

301 0.000 0.293 0.707 342 0.000 0.233 0.767

302 0.000 0.291 0.708 343 0.000 0.232 0.768

303 0.000 0.290 0.710 344 0.000 0.231 0.769

304 0.000 0.288 0.712 345 0.000 0.229 0.771

305 0.000 0.287 0.713 346 0.000 0.228 0.772

306 0.000 0.285 0.715 347 0.000 0.227 0.773

307 0.000 0.283 0.716 348 0.000 0.226 0.774

308 0.000 0.282 0.718 349 0.000 0.224 0.776

309 0.000 0.280 0.720 350 0.000 0.223 0.777

310 0.000 0.279 0.721 351 0.000 0.222 0.778

311 0.000 0.277 0.723 352 0.000 0.221 0.779

 9

353 0.000 0.219 0.781 360 0.000 0.211 0.789

354 0.000 0.218 0.782 361 0.000 0.210 0.790

355 0.000 0.217 0.783 362 0.000 0.209 0.791

356 0.000 0.216 0.784 363 0.000 0.208 0.792

357 0.000 0.215 0.785 364 0.000 0.206 0.794

358 0.000 0.213 0.787 365 0.0000187 0.2052407 0.7947405

359 0.000 0.212 0.788

30 0.961 0.032 0.007

31 0.959 0.034 0.007

Days Proportion of the Population (2022)
32 0.957 0.036 0.007
Day Susceptible Infective Removed
33 0.954 0.038 0.007
0 0.991 0.004 0.005
34 0.951 0.041 0.008
1 0.991 0.005 0.005 35 0.948 0.044 0.008
2 0.990 0.005 0.005 36 0.945 0.046 0.008
3 0.990 0.005 0.005 37 0.942 0.049 0.008

4 0.989 0.006 0.005 38 0.939 0.053 0.009

5 0.989 0.006 0.005 39 0.935 0.056 0.009

6 0.989 0.007 0.005 40 0.931 0.060 0.009

7 0.988 0.007 0.005 41 0.927 0.064 0.010

8 0.988 0.007 0.005 42 0.922 0.068 0.010

9 0.987 0.008 0.005 43 0.918 0.072 0.010

44 0.913 0.077 0.011

10 0.986 0.009 0.005
45 0.907 0.081 0.011
11 0.986 0.009 0.005

12 0.985 0.010 0.005 46 0.902 0.086 0.012

47 0.896 0.092 0.012

13 0.984 0.010 0.005
48 0.890 0.097 0.013
14 0.984 0.011 0.005
49 0.883 0.103 0.013
15 0.983 0.012 0.005
50 0.877 0.110 0.014
16 0.982 0.013 0.005
51 0.869 0.116 0.014
17 0.981 0.014 0.005

18 0.980 0.014 0.006 52 0.862 0.123 0.015

53 0.854 0.130 0.016

19 0.979 0.015 0.006
54 0.845 0.138 0.016
20 0.978 0.016 0.006
55 0.837 0.146 0.017
21 0.977 0.018 0.006
56 0.828 0.154 0.018
22 0.975 0.019 0.006
57 0.818 0.163 0.019
23 0.974 0.020 0.006

24 0.972 0.021 0.006 58 0.808 0.172 0.020

59 0.797 0.182 0.021

25 0.971 0.023 0.006
60 0.787 0.192 0.022
26 0.969 0.024 0.006
61 0.775 0.202 0.023
27 0.967 0.026 0.006
62 0.764 0.213 0.024
28 0.966 0.028 0.007
63 0.751 0.224 0.025
29 0.964 0.030 0.007
 1

64 0.739 0.235 0.026 105 0.158 0.704 0.138

65 0.726 0.247 0.028 106 0.150 0.708 0.142

66 0.712 0.259 0.029 107 0.142 0.712 0.146

67 0.699 0.271 0.030 108 0.134 0.716 0.150

68 0.684 0.284 0.032 109 0.127 0.719 0.154

69 0.670 0.297 0.034 110 0.120 0.722 0.158

70 0.655 0.310 0.035 111 0.114 0.724 0.162

71 0.640 0.323 0.037 112 0.107 0.727 0.166

72 0.624 0.337 0.039 113 0.102 0.728 0.170

73 0.608 0.351 0.041 114 0.096 0.730 0.174

74 0.592 0.365 0.043 115 0.091 0.731 0.178

75 0.576 0.379 0.045 116 0.086 0.732 0.182

76 0.560 0.394 0.047 117 0.081 0.733 0.186

77 0.543 0.408 0.049 118 0.077 0.733 0.190

78 0.527 0.422 0.051 119 0.072 0.733 0.195

79 0.510 0.437 0.053 120 0.068 0.733 0.199

80 0.493 0.451 0.056 121 0.065 0.733 0.203

81 0.477 0.465 0.058 122 0.061 0.732 0.207

82 0.460 0.479 0.061 123 0.058 0.731 0.211

83 0.443 0.493 0.064 124 0.055 0.731 0.215

84 0.427 0.507 0.066 125 0.052 0.729 0.219

85 0.411 0.520 0.069 126 0.049 0.728 0.223

86 0.395 0.533 0.072 127 0.046 0.727 0.227

87 0.379 0.546 0.075 128 0.044 0.725 0.231

88 0.363 0.558 0.078 129 0.041 0.724 0.235

89 0.348 0.571 0.081 130 0.039 0.722 0.239

90 0.333 0.582 0.084 131 0.037 0.720 0.243

91 0.319 0.594 0.088 132 0.035 0.718 0.247

92 0.305 0.605 0.091 133 0.033 0.716 0.251

93 0.291 0.615 0.094 134 0.031 0.714 0.255

94 0.277 0.625 0.098 135 0.030 0.711 0.259

95 0.264 0.635 0.101 136 0.028 0.709 0.263

96 0.252 0.644 0.105 137 0.026 0.707 0.267

97 0.240 0.652 0.108 138 0.025 0.704 0.271

98 0.228 0.660 0.112 139 0.024 0.701 0.275

99 0.217 0.668 0.116 140 0.023 0.699 0.279

100 0.206 0.675 0.119 141 0.021 0.696 0.283

101 0.195 0.682 0.123 142 0.020 0.693 0.286

102 0.185 0.688 0.127 143 0.019 0.691 0.290

103 0.176 0.694 0.131 144 0.018 0.688 0.294

104 0.167 0.699 0.134 145 0.017 0.685 0.298

 2

146 0.016 0.682 0.302 187 0.002 0.555 0.443

147 0.016 0.679 0.306 188 0.002 0.552 0.446

148 0.015 0.676 0.309 189 0.002 0.549 0.449

149 0.014 0.673 0.313 190 0.002 0.546 0.452

150 0.013 0.670 0.317 191 0.002 0.543 0.455

151 0.013 0.667 0.321 192 0.002 0.540 0.458

152 0.012 0.664 0.324 193 0.002 0.537 0.461

153 0.011 0.661 0.328 194 0.002 0.534 0.464

154 0.011 0.658 0.332 195 0.002 0.531 0.467

155 0.010 0.654 0.335 196 0.002 0.528 0.470

156 0.010 0.651 0.339 197 0.002 0.525 0.473

157 0.009 0.648 0.343 198 0.001 0.523 0.476

158 0.009 0.645 0.346 199 0.001 0.520 0.479

159 0.008 0.642 0.350 200 0.001 0.517 0.482

160 0.008 0.639 0.353 201 0.001 0.514 0.485

161 0.008 0.636 0.357 202 0.001 0.511 0.487

162 0.007 0.632 0.360 203 0.001 0.508 0.490

163 0.007 0.629 0.364 204 0.001 0.506 0.493

164 0.007 0.626 0.367 205 0.001 0.503 0.496

165 0.006 0.623 0.371 206 0.001 0.500 0.499

166 0.006 0.620 0.374 207 0.001 0.497 0.502

167 0.006 0.617 0.378 208 0.001 0.495 0.504

168 0.005 0.613 0.381 209 0.001 0.492 0.507

169 0.005 0.610 0.385 210 0.001 0.489 0.510

170 0.005 0.607 0.388 211 0.001 0.487 0.512

171 0.005 0.604 0.391 212 0.001 0.484 0.515

172 0.005 0.601 0.395 213 0.001 0.481 0.518

173 0.004 0.598 0.398 214 0.001 0.479 0.521

174 0.004 0.595 0.401 215 0.001 0.476 0.523

175 0.004 0.591 0.405 216 0.001 0.473 0.526

176 0.004 0.588 0.408 217 0.001 0.471 0.528

177 0.004 0.585 0.411 218 0.001 0.468 0.531

178 0.003 0.582 0.414 219 0.001 0.466 0.534

179 0.003 0.579 0.418 220 0.001 0.463 0.536

180 0.003 0.576 0.421 221 0.001 0.461 0.539

181 0.003 0.573 0.424 222 0.001 0.458 0.541

182 0.003 0.570 0.427 223 0.001 0.455 0.544

183 0.003 0.567 0.430 224 0.001 0.453 0.546

184 0.003 0.564 0.434 225 0.001 0.450 0.549

185 0.003 0.561 0.437 226 0.001 0.448 0.551

186 0.002 0.558 0.440 227 0.001 0.446 0.554

 3

228 0.000 0.443 0.556 269 0.000 0.353 0.647

229 0.000 0.441 0.559 270 0.000 0.351 0.649

230 0.000 0.438 0.561 271 0.000 0.349 0.651

231 0.000 0.436 0.564 272 0.000 0.347 0.653

232 0.000 0.433 0.566 273 0.000 0.345 0.655

233 0.000 0.431 0.569 274 0.000 0.343 0.657

234 0.000 0.429 0.571 275 0.000 0.341 0.659

235 0.000 0.426 0.573 276 0.000 0.339 0.660

236 0.000 0.424 0.576 277 0.000 0.338 0.662

237 0.000 0.422 0.578 278 0.000 0.336 0.664

238 0.000 0.419 0.580 279 0.000 0.334 0.666

239 0.000 0.417 0.583 280 0.000 0.332 0.668

240 0.000 0.415 0.585 281 0.000 0.330 0.670

241 0.000 0.412 0.587 282 0.000 0.328 0.672

242 0.000 0.410 0.590 283 0.000 0.326 0.673

243 0.000 0.408 0.592 284 0.000 0.325 0.675

244 0.000 0.405 0.594 285 0.000 0.323 0.677

245 0.000 0.403 0.597 286 0.000 0.321 0.679

246 0.000 0.401 0.599 287 0.000 0.319 0.681

247 0.000 0.399 0.601 288 0.000 0.317 0.682

248 0.000 0.397 0.603 289 0.000 0.316 0.684

249 0.000 0.394 0.605 290 0.000 0.314 0.686

250 0.000 0.392 0.608 291 0.000 0.312 0.688

251 0.000 0.390 0.610 292 0.000 0.311 0.689

252 0.000 0.388 0.612 293 0.000 0.309 0.691

253 0.000 0.386 0.614 294 0.000 0.307 0.693

254 0.000 0.384 0.616 295 0.000 0.305 0.695

255 0.000 0.381 0.618 296 0.000 0.304 0.696

256 0.000 0.379 0.620 297 0.000 0.302 0.698

257 0.000 0.377 0.623 298 0.000 0.300 0.700

258 0.000 0.375 0.625 299 0.000 0.299 0.701

259 0.000 0.373 0.627 300 0.000 0.297 0.703

260 0.000 0.371 0.629 301 0.000 0.295 0.705

261 0.000 0.369 0.631 302 0.000 0.294 0.706

262 0.000 0.367 0.633 303 0.000 0.292 0.708

263 0.000 0.365 0.635 304 0.000 0.290 0.709

264 0.000 0.363 0.637 305 0.000 0.289 0.711

265 0.000 0.361 0.639 306 0.000 0.287 0.713

266 0.000 0.359 0.641 307 0.000 0.286 0.714

267 0.000 0.357 0.643 308 0.000 0.284 0.716

268 0.000 0.355 0.645 309 0.000 0.282 0.717

 4

310 0.000 0.281 0.719 340 0.000 0.238 0.762

311 0.000 0.279 0.721 341 0.000 0.236 0.764

312 0.000 0.278 0.722 342 0.000 0.235 0.765

313 0.000 0.276 0.724 343 0.000 0.234 0.766

314 0.000 0.275 0.725 344 0.000 0.232 0.768

315 0.000 0.273 0.727 345 0.000 0.231 0.769

316 0.000 0.272 0.728 346 0.000 0.230 0.770

317 0.000 0.270 0.730 347 0.000 0.229 0.771

318 0.000 0.269 0.731 348 0.000 0.227 0.773

319 0.000 0.267 0.733 349 0.000 0.226 0.774

320 0.000 0.266 0.734 350 0.000 0.225 0.775

321 0.000 0.264 0.736 351 0.000 0.224 0.776

322 0.000 0.263 0.737 352 0.000 0.222 0.778

323 0.000 0.261 0.739 353 0.000 0.221 0.779

324 0.000 0.260 0.740 354 0.000 0.220 0.780

325 0.000 0.258 0.742 355 0.000 0.219 0.781

326 0.000 0.257 0.743 356 0.000 0.217 0.783

327 0.000 0.256 0.744 357 0.000 0.216 0.784

328 0.000 0.254 0.746 358 0.000 0.215 0.785

329 0.000 0.253 0.747 359 0.000 0.214 0.786

330 0.000 0.251 0.749 360 0.000 0.213 0.787

331 0.000 0.250 0.750 361 0.000 0.211 0.789

332 0.000 0.249 0.751 362 0.000 0.210 0.790

333 0.000 0.247 0.753 363 0.000 0.209 0.791

334 0.000 0.246 0.754 364 0.000 0.208 0.792

335 0.000 0.244 0.756 365 0.0000192 0.20679458 0.79318627

336 0.000 0.243 0.757

337 0.000 0.242 0.758

338 0.000 0.240 0.760

339 0.000 0.239 0.761