CityDNA-ForwardKeys

Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer

Q1 2022
 Executive Summary
• In Q1 2022, global travel is behind by -59% compared to Q1 2019. The best performing region was the
Americas (-39%), followed by Africa & Middle East (-41%), and Europe (-53%). And was the case throughout
2021, the worst performing region is Asia Pacific (-85%).
• In Europe, Southern Europe (-42%) continues to out-perform other European sub-regions and moving
towards the summer Q2 figures show the same trend (-30%).
• Istanbul was the best performing city in Q1 2022, just 20% down from 2019 levels.
• The top European destination city for Spanish outbound travel is Paris with figures for Q1 down by just -6%
compared with 2019

CityDNA-ForwardKeys | Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer | Q1 2022

 The Americas, Africa & Middle East outperform Europe in Q1 2022
Q1 & Q2 international arrivals to world regions
1 Jan to 31 Mar 2022 and 1 April to 30 June 2022 on-the-book; VS 2019 variations by region

The Americas Europe Total Inbound

-39% -53% -59%
(Q2: -27%) (Q2: -40%) (Q2: -46%)

Asia Pacific
-85%
Africa & Middle East
(Q2: -76%)
-41%
(Q2: -33%)

*all results refer to the relative variation over 2019

Arrivals in Q1 2022 and on-the-book Only considered pax staying at

Source: ForwardKeys Air Ticket Data.
arrivals in Q2 vs same period in 2019 least 1 night at destinations.

CityDNA-ForwardKeys | Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer | Q1 2022

 Southern Europe outperformed other sub-regions in Europe
Q1 & Q2 international arrivals to Europe
1 Jan to 31 Mar 2022 and 1 April to 30 June 2022 on-the-book; VS 2019 variations by region

Northern Europe Central &

Eastern Europe
-54%
(Q2: -38%) -59%
(Q2: -69%)

Western Europe Southern Europe

-60% -42%
(Q2: -46%) (Q2: -30%)

*all results refer to the relative variation over 2019

Arrivals in Q1 2022 and on-the-book Only considered pax staying at

Source: ForwardKeys Air Ticket Data.
arrivals in Q2 vs same period in 2019 least 1 night at destinations.

CityDNA-ForwardKeys | Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer | Q1 2022

 Istanbul and Paris were the top destination cities in Q1 2022
Top 5 European inbound destination cities for international travel
January to March and April to June (vs 2019)

Q1 2022 Q2 2022

Top destination cities Var vs 2019 Top destination cities Var vs 2019

1st Istanbul -20% 1st London -42%

2nd Paris -50% 2nd Paris -35%

3rd London -60% 3rd Madrid -23%

4th Madrid -35% 4th Rome -47%

5th Amsterdam -60% 5th Istanbul -25%

Total EU27 & UK -57% Total EU27 & UK -38%

CityDNA City Index CityDNA City Index -39%
-52% (Only cities)
(Only cities)

Arrivals in Q1 2022 and on-the-book Only considered pax staying at

Source: ForwardKeys Air Ticket Data.
arrivals in Q2 vs same period in 2019 least 1 night at destinations.

CityDNA-ForwardKeys | Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer | Q1 2022

 Most resilient destinations
International arrivals to European destinations in Q1 and Q2 on-the-book 2022; vs 2019 levels

Q1 2022 Q2 2022

Top most resilient cities Var vs 2019 Top most resilient cities Var vs 2019
1st Malaga (ES) -17% 1st (+2) Palma Mallorca (ES) +5%

2nd Istanbul (TR) -20% 2nd Naples (IT) -9%

3rd Palma Mallorca (ES) -26% 3rd (-2) Malaga (ES) -10%

4th Reykjavik (IS) -28% 4th Porto (PT) -18%

5th Madrid (ES) -35% 5th (+1) Lisbon (PT) -21%

6th Lisbon (PT) -40% 6th (-2) Reykjavik (IS) -22%

7th Geneva (CH) -41% 7th (-2) Madrid (ES) -23%

8th Athens (GR) -46% 8th (-6) Istanbul (TR) -23%

9th Zurich (CH) -50% 9th (-1) Athens (GR) -24%

10th Paris (FR) -50% 10th Nice (FR) -27%

*Out of destinations with a share of at least 1% of total arrivals

Arrivals in Q1 2022 and on-the-book Only considered pax staying at

Source: ForwardKeys Air Ticket Data.
arrivals in Q2 vs same period in 2019 least 1 night at destinations.

CityDNA-ForwardKeys | Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer | Q1 2022

 Seat capacity still lagged 2019 levels
Seat Capacity for international travel to Europe
29 Oct to 31 Mar 2022 VS same period in 2018/19

20
Millions of scheduled seats

16
Nov 2021 - Mar
2022,
12 % of 2019
volumes:
69%
8

4
29-Oct 12-Nov 26-Nov 10-Dec 24-Dec 7-Jan 21-Jan 4-Feb 18-Feb 4-Mar 18-Mar

Intra-regional 2022 Extra-european 2022 2019

**The air capacity seats are reported as per the data parameters listed above. They may differ due to the quick changing
developments within the aviation sector, including unreported or unfiled seat numbers by airline operators.**

Air Capacity for flight dates between 29 Oct 2021 to 31 March 2022 vs same
Source: ForwardKeys Seat Capacity Data.
period in 2018/19, for international travel to Europe, as of 4 April 2022.

CityDNA-ForwardKeys | Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer | Q1 2022

Trends
 Market spotlight: Outbound Germany
International historical and on-the-book departures from Germany and tickets issued for future travel from Germany

Var vs 2019: Q1 Q2 Q1 Business Recovery

on-the-book
TO REST
EUROPE OF WORLD
Germany → Europe -50% -26%

Germany → Rest of -50% -57%

-55% -47%
the world
(Shares)
Total International
-52% -34%
Outbound Long stays
16% (14+ nights) 40%
Q2 Medium stays
Top 3 Destination Cities on-the-book 57% (4-13 nights) 47%
Palma Mallorca +4% Short stays
27% (1-3 nights) 13%

Istanbul -7%

Barcelona -16% Find more in ForwardKeys

CityDNA-ForwardKeys | Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer | Q1 2022

 The evolution of global departures
Tickets for international departures from January 2020 until 24 March 2022; % of 2019 levels

120%

Covid-19 Spain and Germany Delta UK eases entry Omicron Invasion Ukraine
100% opened the border restrictions

80%
% of 2019 levels

60%

40%

20%

0%
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22

-20%
Tickets for international global departures Tickets for departures from Germany Tickets for departures from UK Tickets for departures from Spain

Source: ForwardKeys Air Ticket Data.

CityDNA-ForwardKeys | Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer | Q1 2022

 Demand for intra-EU and UK travel slows down, but US is picking up again
Tickets for international arrivals to EU and UK from EU and UK, US and
Russia issued between 22 Oct 2021 and 10 Mar 2022; % of 2019 levels
Russian invasion
100%
of Ukraine begins
Number of COVID
90% cases around Europe
starts increasing
80%
% of 2019 levels

70%

60% Omicron variant

detected in South
50% Africa

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
22-Oct 5-Nov 19-Nov 3-Dec 17-Dec 31-Dec 14-Jan 28-Jan 11-Feb 25-Feb

Intra-EU+UK US -> EU+UK Russia -> EU+UK

Source: ForwardKeys Air Ticket Data.

CityDNA-ForwardKeys | Air Travellers’ Traffic Barometer | Q1 2022

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Methodology & Glossary

PERIOD & PERIMETERS DATA SETS & SMARTS INCLUDED IN THE REPORT
► Historical Q1 (January to March); 2022 vs 2019
ACTUAL AIR TICKETS
► Forward looking Q2 (April to June); 2022 vs 2019 In Destination Gateway, Actual Air Tickets provides insight into a destination’s performance over
► Data is updated as of XXXX the coming months based on tickets booked with a travel date in the future (on-the-book data).

► "Europe" and other regions are defined as per UNWTO TOTAL AIR MARKET
geographic distribution.
As the most comprehensive dataset of its kind in the industry, Total Air Market provides an
estimate of total passenger traffic to a location. The dataset covers statistics from low-cost airlines
GLOSSARY as well as legacy carriers, with unprecedented detail on traveller profiles, journey types and more.

Ticket: Document issued by an airline which provides for the SEAT CAPACITY
carriage of the passenger, either a “Passenger Ticket and Baggage Provided by OAG and enriched by ForwardKeys, Seat Capacity allows Destination Gateway users
check” or an Electronic Ticket. to analyse the available seats on direct commercial flights scheduled from/to your destination.

Tourist arrivals: Arrivals of travellers staying overnight in the

specified destination as per ticketing data. When the destination Find these and more smarts in Destination Gateway!
refers to a country, the arrivals count each step within its territory
that includes an overnight stay.

On the Book: Air reservations according to the Travel Dates in the

future. When calculating year-on-year variations, it compares the
same travel period with the bookings that are issued during the
same booking period during the previous year.

©ForwardKeys, 2022. All rights reserved.

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Contact

Olivier Ponti Thomas Deschamps

VP Insights tdeschamps@parisinfo.com
olivier.ponti@forwardkeys.com
insights@forwardkeys.com