PHILIPPINE COLLEGE OF CRIMINOLOGY

SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL

S.Y. 2018-2019

TITLE OF THE PAPER

By: Name of the Student
 PHILIPPINE COLLEGE OF CRIMINOLOGY
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
S.Y. 2018-2019

Probability versus Statistics. ...Probability deals with predicting the likelihood of

future events, while statistics involves the analysis of the frequency of past
events. Probability is primarily a theoretical branch of mathematics, which studies the
consequences of mathematical definitions.

Body:

Statistics is intimately linked to probability theory. You can use statistics to work out the probability, the chance, that a certain event will
occur: if you want to know the chance that your holiday plane will crash, you think of how many planes usually crash within a year. Since
this number is very small, you deduce that the chance of your plane crashing is small also. You’ve done a very simple statistical analysis of
the data concerning plane crashes and used it to work out a probability.

But things also work the other way around: you can use abstract probabilities to help you with your stats. Say for example you want to test
whether a die that is used in a casino is fair. To do this, you throw the die a great number of times and record the outcomes. You then
reason like this: if the die is fair, then each number should be equally likely. There are six numbers, so each number should come up in 1/6
of the cases. What you are doing is comparing the actual die with an idealdie: if your casino die does give you each number in roughly 1/6
of all throws, you decide that it is fair.
Probability theory is important when it comes to evaluating statistics. If in am opinion poll you find that 80% of the people you asked liked
the current Prime Minister, it is very tempting to conclude that the Prime Minister is very popular. But how do you know that your result did
not just occur by chance? Well, you use probability theory to calculate the probability that your result occurred by chance — if this
probability is very small, then you should conclude that the Prime Minister is popular.

Statistics, and the underlying theory of probability, are obviously useful for opinion pollsters and professional gamblers.

Conclusion:

Probability studies, well, how probable events are. You intuitively know what probability is.

Statistics is the study of data: showing it (using tools such as charts), summarizing it (using means and
standard deviations etc.), reaching conclusions about the world from which that data was drawn (fitting
lines to data etc.), and -- this is key -- quantifying how sure we can be about our conclusions.

In order to quantify how sure we can be about our conclusions we need to use Probability. Let's say
you have last year's data about rainfall in the region where you live and where I live. Last year it rained
 PHILIPPINE COLLEGE OF CRIMINOLOGY
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
S.Y. 2018-2019

an average of 1/4 inch per week where you live, and 3/8 inch where I live. So we can say that rainfall
in my region is on average 50% greater than where you live, right? Not so fast, Sparky. It could be a
coincidence: maybe it just happened to rain a lot last year where I live. We can use Probability to
estimate how confident we can be in our conclusion that my home is 50% soggier than yours.

So basically you can say that Probability is the mathematical foundation for the Theory of Statistics.
Probability deals with the question, “what are the chances that a particular outcome (out of many possible) IF I
perform this experiment?” In simple words it related to FUTURE That is in a situation where you cannot
predict the outcome of an experiment un till the experiment is over. Consider the experiment of flipping a coin,
the number of “possibilities = 2, i.e., Head (H) or Tail (T). So the theory of probability can help you to calculation
the chances if you flip a coin what are chances that up face will be Head (or Tail). In this case it is 0.5 in either
case. It is worth mentioning that results we calculate using the theory of probability are valid ONLY IF we
repeat the experiment for a very large number of times.
Whereas Statistics deals with the experiments which have already been conducted and we have complete 100%
accurate data. The theory of Statistics provide us tools to present and analyse given data and draw conclusion(s).
It is worth mentioning that we are not allowed to temper the data. So it related to PAST.
PHILIPPINE COLLEGE OF CRIMINOLOGY
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
S.Y. 2018-2019