Professional Documents
Culture Documents
3546
PREPARED BY:
DR DIRK A PRINSLOO
SOSHANGUVE SOUTH
DOREEN ROAD
FOR
TRITAN DEVELOPMENTS
MARCH 2008
2
INDEX
1. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................... 3
8. NEW DEVELOPMENTS...................................................................................................... 19
8.1 Industrial development ............................................................................................ 19
8.2 Retail development ................................................................................................. 20
8.3 Roads and infrastructure ......................................................................................... 21
8.4 Residential development .......................................................................................... 21
9. SITE EVALUATION ........................................................................................................... 24
9.1 Meso environment or broader area........................................................................... 24
9.2 Micro location ......................................................................................................... 24
10. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ............................................................................................ 27
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Research objectives • To analyse the market and to indicate the potential for a retail
centre at this particular location.
Socio-economic and • Younger age profile, 34% employed mainly in low skilled occupations
demographic profile and 48% part of LSM 1-4
• Average age 38 years, mainly Tswana and Sotho speaking, 41%
earning R5 000-R10 000 per month with an average household
income of R9 500.
Shopping patterns and • The strength of Wonder Park centre is very clear, especially after the
retail facilities recent expansion.
Site evaluation • This sector of Greater Tshwane is showing tremendous growth which
will continue for the next 10 – 15 years.
Conclusion • Very strong residential growth over the next at least 10 years.
• The proposed site will become more centrally located, instead of in
the southern tip of the residential area.
• The presence of a large job creator like Rosslyn will increase job
opportunities for this area during the next 10 years.
• The proposed centre will experience strong competition from
Wonderpark Shopping Centre as well as from centres to the north of
Soshanguve.
• It is recommended not to over-build the centre and to build it in
phases.
• A centre of 32 000m² could be warranted currently.
• The centre must address the specific needs of the shoppers in the
area.
• The centre must be positioned to cater for LSM 5 – 8 shoppers.
• The centre must not focus on too many exclusive stores.
• Good growth potential exists once the area has been filled up.
• A “follow the roofs” strategy should be followed.
SOSHANGUVE SOUTH
DOREEN ROAD
1. BACKGROUND
The proposed site forms part of a large area earmarked for further residential
development and is located 2,9 km north of Rosslyn on the M20 road. This area forms
part of the Greater Rosslyn industrial area as well as residential facilities directly to the north
of the site, including Hebron and Soshanguve South. The area is earmarked for major
residential development with up to 20 000 lower and medium cost houses.
The purpose of this report was to analyse the market and to indicate the potential for a
retail centre at this particular location.
2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
• the total number of households living within this area and the estimated
population in the area;
• the residential growth experienced in the area during the past few years as
well as projected growth;
• the demographic and socio-economic profile of the people living in the area;
• competing retail facilities located in the area and the tenant mix in these
centres, and
• any other aspects that might impact on the performance of the proposed
centre were highlighted.
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This is a so-called desk research and the following existing sources of information were
used:
Table 4.1 gives an indication of the total number of households within the broader
Soshanguve/Mabopane area.
TABLE 4.1
TOTAL POPULATIONAND NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
IN THE BROADER SOSHANGUVE/MAPBONE AREA
Number of Number of
people in households in
broader area broader area
Total 504,846 127,209
2% Growth 2008 579,909 146,123
2% Growth 2012 615,404 155,067
4% Growth 2008 664,343 167,398
4% Growth 2012 747,295 188,300
Source: Stats SA Census 2001 projected for 2008/12
The large number of people living in this sector of Greater Tshwane is clear from this table.
The proposed site is located more to the south with most expected support from Soshanguve
South (See Table 4.2) and the areas to be filled in between Rosslyn and Soshanguve.
TABLE 4.2
TOTAL POPULATION
AND NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS IN PRIMARY TRADE AREA
(5 KM RADIUS)
Number of Number of
Main-Place Sub-Place people households in
Primary trade Primary trade
area area
Akasia Onderstepoort Nature Reserve 499 91
Akasia Rosslyn 184 80
City of Tshwane Metro Onderstepoort SH 773 202
City of Tshwane Metro Pretoria NU 16069 5118
City of Tshwane Metro Wonderboom NU 23346 6034
Ga-Rankuwa Ga-Rankuwa Zone 2 5907 568
Pretoria Onderstepoort 258 26
Soshanguve Itumeleng 2148 595
Ga-Rankuwa Tsebe 5494 1659
Ga-Rankuwa Hebron 1229 338
Soshanguve Soshanguve South 1420 411
Soshanguve Soshanguve SS 25641 7444
Soshanguve Soshanguve T 6185 1758
Soshanguve Soshanguve TT 7403 2023
Soshanguve Soshanguve UU 4060 1182
Soshanguve Soshanguve V 8759 2446
Soshanguve Soshanguve W 7957 2017
Soshanguve Soshanguve WW 11316 3283
Soshanguve Soshanguve X 12769 3427
Soshanguve Soshanguve XX 5135 1598
Soshanguve Soshanguve Y 4292 1152
Total 150 844 41 452
2% Growth 2008 176 738 48 568
2% Growth 2012 187 556 51 540
4% Growth 2008 206 440 56 730
4% Growth 2012 232 217 63 813
TABLE 4.3
TOTAL POPULATION AND NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
IN PRIMARY AND SECONDARY TRADE AREAS
(8 KM RADIUS)
Number of Number of
Main-Place Sub-Place people in 8 households
km radius 8 km radius
Soshanguve Soshanguve South 1420 411
Soshanguve Soshanguve SS 25641 7444
Soshanguve Soshanguve T 6185 1758
Soshanguve Soshanguve TT 7403 2023
Soshanguve Soshanguve UU 4060 1182
Soshanguve Soshanguve V 8759 2446
Soshanguve Soshanguve W 7957 2017
Soshanguve Soshanguve WW 11316 3283
Soshanguve Soshanguve X 12769 3427
Soshanguve Soshanguve XX 5135 1598
Soshanguve Soshanguve Y 4292 1152
Akasia Onderstepoort Nature Reserve 499 91
Akasia Rosslyn 184 80
City of Tshwane Metro Onderstepoort SH 773 202
City of Tshwane Metro Pretoria NU 16069 5118
City of Tshwane Metro Wonderboom NU 23346 6034
Ga-Rankuwa Ga-Rankuwa Zone 2 5907 568
Pretoria Onderstepoort 258 26
Soshanguve Itumeleng 2148 595
Ga-Rankuwa Tsebe 5494 1659
Ga-Rankuwa Hebron 1229 338
Mabopane Itsoseng 6130 1734
Mabopane Soshanguve South 1231 421
Mabopane Soshanguve TT 6358 1801
Ga-Rankuwa NONE 12 4
Ga-Rankuwa Ga-Rasai 512 141
Ga-Rankuwa Ga-Tshefoqe 1149 272
Ga-Rankuwa Jakkalas 2583 593
Ga-Rankuwa Klipgat 5061 1289
Ga-Rankuwa Klipvoor 395 124
Ga-Rankuwa Letlhakaneng 3331 793
Ga-Rankuwa Makanyaneng 22202 5120
Ga-Rankuwa Mapoch 942 253
Ga-Rankuwa Masoga 1223 268
Ga-Rankuwa Wilgekuil 0 0
Ga-Rankuwa Winterveld 124 37
Total 202 097 54 302
2% Growth 2008 236 789 63 623
2% Growth 2012 251 282 67 518
4% Growth 2008 276 584 74 316
4% Growth 2012 311 119 83 595
Source: Stats SA Census 2001 projected for 2008/12
Soshanguve
Hebron
Proposed
site
Ga-
Rankuwa Rosslyn
Strydfontein
Proposed
site
Residential
Growth
Ga-
Rankuwa Rosslyn
Strydfontein
Mainly two sources were used to get a better understanding of the socio-economic and
demographic profile of a particular area namely:
• studies undertaken by Urban Studies in this or similar areas over the last 5 years.
This information is normally based on surveys conducted at different centres or at
households in the broader area. These samples are normally representative of the
more affluent sector of the market compared to the Census information, focusing
on the total market.
According to Table 5.1 and the associated graphs note the following:
AGE GROUPS
45 40
40
35 30 40% of the population is younger than 20
30
23 years, indicating a young age profile.
25
20
15
10 7
5
0
<19 years 20 to 34 35-54 55+
POPULATION GROUP
100
100
90
80
All the residents in this area are black.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 0 0 0
0
Black Coloured Asian White
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
40 37
34
35 30
30 Of the economically active people 34%
25 are employed. This indicates a higher
20 than normal employment level, indicating
15
10
the role of the Soshanguve and Rosslyn
5 vicinity.
0
Employed Unemployed Not economically
active
OCCUPATION GROUPS
EDUCATION
Higher 8
33% have matric and higher
Std 10/Grade 12 25 qualifications.
Some secondary 33
Complete primary 7
Some primary 15
No schooling 13
0 10 20 30 40
R2457600+
R19201-38400
R38401-76800
No income
R1228801-
R4801-9600
R153601-
R307201-
R614401-
R76801-153600
R9601-19200
R1-4800
1228800
307200
614400
2457600
LSM GROUPS
30
24 24 25
25
20 48% forms part of LSM1 1 – 4 and 27%
14 part of LSM 7 – 10. This clearly
15 13
indicates the increase in the emerging
10
middle market.
5
0
LSM 1-3 LSM 4 LSM 5-6 LSM 7-9 LSM 10
DWELLING UNITS
Caravan/tent/other 0
Room/flat on shared property 0
61% of the total population live in
Informal unit not in back yard 29 formal houses.
Traditional/informal dwelling 7
House in back yard 3
Townhouse 0
Flat in block 0
House 61
0 20 40 60 80
1
LSM = Living Standard Measurement – a classification used countrywide by all marketers. The income per LSM category
reflects the monthly household income.
(LSM 1 = deep rural, LSM 10 = affluent)
LSM 1 – 4 = <R800 – R3 000 / LSM 5 – 7 = R3 001 – R8 000 / LSM 8 – 9 = R8 001 – R20 000
LSM 10 = R20 000+
TABLE 5.1
SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
Soshanguve Soshanguve
Age Groups % Individual Monthly Income %
<19 years 40 No income 2
20 to 34 30 R1-400 7
35-54 23 R410-800 17
55+ 7 R801-1600 31
Population Groups R1601-3200 26
Black 100 R3201-6400 14
Coloured 0 R6401-12800 4
Asian 0 R12801-25600 0
White 0 R26501-51200 0
Language Groups R51201-102400 0
Afrikaans 0 R102401-204800 0
English 0 R204801+ 0
African 99 Annual Household Income
Other 0 No income 23
Employment R1-4800 7
Employed 34 R4801-9600 18
Unemployed 30 R9601-19200 24
Not economically active 37 R19201-38400 25
Occupation R38401-76800 17
Legislators, officials and managers 3 R76801-153600 8
Professionals 5 R153601-307200 2
Technicians 10 R307201-614400 0
Clerks 13 R614401-1228800 0
Service 14 R1228801-2457600 0
Skilled agriculture 0 R2457600+ 0
Crafts/trade 16 Median hh income 2001 20737
Plant and Machinery 10 Median hh income 2008 35540
Elementary occupations 25 Median hh income pm 2008 2962
Undetermined 5 LSM Groups
Occupation LSM 2-3 24
White Collar 34 LSM 4 24
Blue Collar 21 LSM 5-6 25
Low Skilled 45 LSM 7-9 13
Sector LSM 10 14
Agriculture 1 No of people in sub place 65587
Mining 0 No of hh in sub place 17535
Manufacturing 13 Dwelling Unit
Electricity 1 House 61
Construction 7 Flat in block 0
Retail/Wholesale 19 Townhouse 0
Transport 7 House in back yard 3
Financial/Insurance 8 Traditional/informal dwelling 7
Community 27 Informal unit not in back yard 29
Other 0 Room/flat on shared property 0
Private household 10 Caravan/tent/other 0
Undetermined 7
Education
No schooling 13
Some primary 15
Complete primary 7
Some secondary 33
Std 10/Grade 12 25
Higher 8
Source: Census 2001, adjusted for 2008
These graphs reflect the more affluent households in the Soshanguve area.
DEMOGRAPHICS
60
51
50
41 39
40 37
28 30
% 30
20
20
14 12 10
10 5 4 3 3
1 1 1
0
Tsw ana
Sw azi
Young
Vendor
Afrikaans
Sotho
Xhosa
Full nest
Zulu
English
Empty nest
Ndebele
18-24
25-34
35-49
50-65
65+
Younger age profile, 34% employed mainly in low skilled occupations and 48%
part of LSM 1-4
Average age 38 years, mainly Tswana and Sotho speaking, 41% earning R5 000-
R10 000 per month with an average household income of R9 500.
For years the only major shopping centre in this area has been Central City in Mabopane at
52 000m² with major anchors like Shoprite, Score and Clicks. This centre was built in 1996
and consists of 90 shops. A new centre has recently opened in Soshanguve called
Soshanguve Plaza (±20 000m²).
TABLE 6.1
EXISTING RETAIL FACILITIES IN THE BROADER AREA
These graphs reflect the shopping patterns of residents in the Soshanguve South area.
Groceries
GROCERIES
100 92 89
90
80
70
60
% 50
40
30
20
10 5 2 2
0
Pick'n Pay Shoprite Hyperama Wonderpark Mayville
• A wide variety of stores is supported with Edgars the most popular at 28%,
Truworths at 15% and Woolworths at 12%.
• 88% conduct their clothing shopping at Wonderpark. There is very little outflow
to Pretoria CBD and Kolonnade.
Ackermans
Milady 's
Edgars
Markhams
Mr Price
Kolonade
Woolworths
Wonderpark
Pretoria CBD
Truworths
• Mr Price Home, Ackermans and Woolworths are the three most important homeware
stores.
• 90% of the respondents support these stores at Wonderpark.
Wonderpark
Kolonade
Mr Price Home
Woolworths
Game
Pretoria CBD
Ackermans
Edgars
Sheet Street
Wonderpark
Menlyn
Joshua Doore
Game
Pretoria CBD
Beares
Russells
Senex
Montana
Clicks
Pretoria North
Morkels
Furniture City
• The eating places supported are Wimpy, Steers, Spur and KFC.
• 87% support these facilities at Wonderpark.
Wonderpark
Kolonnade
House of Coffee
Spur
KFC
Steers
Nando's
Menlyn
Mike's Kitchen
Pretoria CBD
Wimpy
Entertainment
ENTERTAINMENT
100 93
86
90
80
70
60
% 50
40
30
20 13
10 3
0
Cinema Music Wonderpark Menlyn
From all this information the strength of Wonder Park centre is very clear,
especially after the recent expansion.
7. EXPENDITURE LEVELS
The profile is mainly representative of LSM 4 - 7. Table 7.1 gives an indication of the monthly
expenditure levels on consumer products of these households.
TABLE 7.1
AVERAGE MONTHLY SPENDING
ON CONSUMER GOODS
(R)
8. NEW DEVELOPMENTS
The site is located 2,9 km from the robot on the corner of the R566 and Doreen Road and
the M20 in Rosslyn in a northern direction.
Supplier Park: This industrial initiative took long to establish itself in the bigger Rosslyn
area, but started to grow recently with a few new tenants like Tata. No new applications
have been received lately. There are only a few smaller tenants that showed interest. There
are renewed plans to reposition and market this area.
The whole area west of Doreen Road and north of Supply Park has been zoned for future
industrial development. It is estimated that 13 000 new jobs will be created within the next
3-8 years, depending on prevailing economic conditions.
• The Spar Centre in Rosslyn (±5 km from the site) on the R566 towards the west,
which is very busy.
TABLE 8.1
CENTRAL CITY – TENANT LIST
• Investigation for Soshanguve Ext 8 (with farm areas in between) just northwest of
the site for 5 000m². This is the site next to the road that stops in the middle of
nowhere.
• A road will be built together with a traffic circle or robot to divert traffic into the
site.
• The K6 provincial road to the south of the site is planned to connect with R80 in
future. This is not a priority with Gautrans and could take several years to be built.
This proposed road runs through the southwestern part of the land. See map 8.1.
• The R80 is a very busy road connecting Pretoria and Rosslyn with Soshanguve –
34 000 vehicles counted on this road per day.
• The Engen Garage pumps 500 000 – 600 000 litres per month which is a good
indication of a very busy road.
• The sewerage system was upgraded in 2002 and the water pipes in 2004.
• The Akasia Municipality is planning ±20 000 RDP houses in the area. Some of
these applications have been approved, while the others have been received. This is
a 3 – 8 year project.
• No residential development directly to the east of the proposed site, but a large
number of existing rural residential units to the northwest, north and northeast of the
site. See map 8.1.
• The land directly to the west of the site is owned by the Municipality.
• The land further to the west (adjacent to that of the municipality) is earmarked for
6 000 housing units.
• Adjacent to the site to the east of the railway line Safrich is planning ±60 000
housing units over the medium term. A few of these houses have been completed,
and the whole project will be phased.
• The most exciting project is for the middle income Inkwe Development south of the
R566 and west of Ernest Oppenheimer Road. In total 865 houses will be built of
which ± 60-70% has been completed.
From all this it is clear that the area will increase by another 80 000 households
within the next 20-30 years. All this will influence the potential for retail
facilities in future.
9. SITE EVALUATION
• General accessibility
− highway road access – in close proximity to the N4 which is close to the site
− arterial roads – the site located on the M20 which is a major north/south feeder
road. It is also important to note the proximity to the R80. The site offers very
good accessibility
− local roads – will be developed and upgraded
− travel barriers – except for the roads, no major barriers
− socio-economic changes – mainly an upgrade in LSM profiles because newer and
better houses. The move is from LSM 4 -5 to LSM 6 - 8
− availability of public transport – mainly train, bus and taxi
− motor car ownership – currently ±60% of the households, will increase in future
to 1 car per household
• Visibility
− from which direction – north and south
− from what distance – long distance visibility
− obstructions - none
− topography - flat
• Type of location
− metropolitan township – with excellent future growth prospects
• Adjoining uses
− complementary – mainly further residential development as well as a large
number of factories which will take up residential units in the area
− competing facilities – mainly Wonderpark Shopping Centre to the south and
centres much further to the north (15+ km)
− not complementary – industrial area, but will offer job opportunities and increase
the demand for residential facilities
− positive or negative – the upgrades in the area are all positive for further retail
development
− changes over time (medium term) – strong residential growth, improvement of
roads and a positive view
− site access – will have to be created
• Passing traffic
− traffic volumes – already high on the M20 (see photographs)
− too much/too little? – currently enough to be handled
− character of traffic – mainly passenger and taxi vehicles
− daily flows - high
− average speed – 40 – 70 km per hour
• the estimated number of households within the primary catchment is 50 000 housing
units and 64 000 within the broader catchment area;
• expected growth in the immediate vicinity of the proposed site. This will include
4 300 housing units in the immediate vicinity as well as a further 60 000 units within
the broader area. A further 65 000 housing units will be built within the next 20 – 30
years;
• the growth of the city will experience the amalgamation of the Rosslyn and the
Soshanguve area.
TABLE 10.1
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
2008 2012/13
Product Warranted % of Total Warranted % of Total
Categories Space Floor Area Space Floor Area
(GLA) (GLA)
Groceries 4246 13 5702 14
Clothing and shoes 8156 26 10371 25
Furniture and appliances 3931 12 4940 12
Household goods 4787 15 6174 15
Restaurants and take-aways 940 3 1328 3
Entertainment 0 0 0 0
Other 8824 28 11512 28
Banks/Services 1000 3 1000 2
Total area warranted 31 884 100 41 028 100
Expected turnover p.a. R590 million R771 million
From the above mentioned it is clear that the following will definitely take place in this area:
• the proposed site will become more centrally located, instead of in the southern tip of
the residential area;
• the presence of a large job creator like Rosslyn will increase job opportunities for this
area during the next 10 years;
• the proposed centre will experience strong competition from Wonderpark Shopping
Centre as well as from centres to the north of Soshanguve;
• the centre must address the specific needs of the shoppers in the area;
• good growth potential exists once the area has been filled up;