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species are there? Quantifying the
components of underestimation
Sarah J. Adamowicz* and Andy Purvis
suggested that the best indicators of total diversity may be ratios For each species, we recorded the description date and bio-
of unknown to known species in samples. Similarly, Hammond geographical regions it occupied. References and details regarding
(1994) advocated avoiding the use of ecological principles, the assembly of the branchiopod taxon list are presented in
because of our current inadequate knowledge of the rules of the Appendix S1 (see Supplementary Material).
distribution and turnover of biodiversity, and basing extrapolations
on well-estimated simple ratios instead, such as ratios in the
Estimation of global species richness
diversity of different geographical regions or taxonomic groups.
In this paper, we take a novel intensive approach to the We estimated three diversity correction factors to be applied to
problem of estimating species diversity in a globally distributed described branchiopod diversity in order to extrapolate to global
freshwater arthropod taxon, the crustacean class Branchiopoda. diversity. Each of the factors was constructed to be a multiplier,
In light of the criticisms of some earlier studies noted above, to facilitate comparison of their magnitudes (so that the order in
we extrapolate using only information for species in this clade which they were calculated would not matter). The nature of the
and within given spatial scales. The modest size of Branchiopoda data available does not permit the use of ‘normal’ statistical
(c. 1200 species) permits analyses on all known species. The measures (such as confidence intervals) to account for un-
group contains important members of communities in most certainty in these values. However, for each factor, we used the
types of standing inland waters, including temporary pools, information that was available about uncertainty to propose
ponds, lakes and saline lakes. Ranging from about 0.18 to a plausible range of values for the multipliers. We have also
100 mm in length (Dumont & Negrea, 2002), most are filter demonstrated how this uncertainty influences the estimate of
feeders as in the well-known taxon Daphnia, but the class also global species richness.
contains grazers on vegetation or substrates, predators,
omnivores and interstitial benthic dwellers. We estimate global
Differential taxonomic effort among biogeographical regions
species richness for the class and assess the magnitude of
three factors likely to have led to the underestimation of true If taxonomic effort has varied greatly among biogeographical
branchiopod diversity: (1) different levels of taxonomic effort regions, then one would predict that understudied regions might
among continents; (2) incorrect assumptions of multicontinental have fewer species than expected for their area. Korovchinsky
distributions of many species; and (3) incomplete knowledge of (1996) identified the Oriental and Ethiopian regions as having
faunas on single continents. This last factor involves two com- had the poorest taxonomic work for the cladoceran branchio-
ponents: rare species may be missed in surveys and the knowledge pods. To estimate the possible effect of poor sampling on known
of ‘intraspecific’ variability is often superficial, resulting in diversity, we plotted the log species–log area relationship
described morphospecies comprising multiple true species. among seven biogeographical regions (Nearctic, Neotropics,
Secondly, recognizing that described diversity is generally the Europe + Palaearctic Africa, Ethiopian + Malagasy regions,
only diversity data readily available for studies of macroecology Palaearctic Asia, Oriental region, and Australasia; see Appendix
and macroevolution, we also assess the reliability of relative S2 in Supplementary Material for justification of the use of these
diversity estimates among orders and families. Finally, we regions). Estimates of the numbers of species presumed
address the issue of what is not known (i.e. what kinds of species ‘missing’ from the Oriental and Ethiopian regions as a result of
probably remain to be described?). We analyse potential cor- undersampling were then obtained by adjusting their diversity
relates of description date, assuming that species yet to be to match the species–area relationship refit using only the five
discovered will be more similar to those described in the recent better-studied regions. The number of projected new species
than in the distant past. We conclude with some comparisons was corrected based on the overall proportion of continental
and recommendations for speeding the species discovery process. endemism in the whole data set. Since branchiopods are not a
tropical group (indeed, the diversity of the planktonic groups
is regarded to be highest in temperate regions; Fernando & Paggi,
METHODS
1998), we made no additional correction for elevated tropical
In this work, we address one aspect of biological diversity — diversity, as would be required in many other groups. Further, we
species richness — which we define as the total number of species made no corrections for regional heterogeneity in taxonomic
in a taxonomic group worldwide. We note that, although diversity composition because, although present in branchiopods, it is
can be characterized in many different ways, we use the terms weak (see Appendix S3 in Supplementary Material).
‘richness’ and ‘diversity’ interchangeably here. The correction for differential taxonomic work among regions
was calculated as the new total number of species (including the
adjustment to the Oriental and Ethiopian richness values)
The taxonomic data set
divided by the old total. A range of plausible correction factors
We compiled a list of 1176 valid branchiopod species (290 anos- was obtained by taking into consideration the degree of fit of
tracans, 187 spinicaudatans, 35 laevicaudatans, 2 cyclestheridans, the species–area relationship among the five best-studied bio-
15 notostracans, 560 anomopods, 52 ctenopods, 33 onychopods geographical regions. Thus, the diversity of the two poorly studied
and 2 haplopods; c. 10 species were not included here because of regions was further adjusted by first adding and then subtracting
literature unavailability) described up until 1 November 2003. the average of the absolute value of the residual diversities from
456 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455–468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Estimating true species diversity
the five-point relationship. Note that the resulting interval is tative criteria by which we counted species, which nearly always
much narrower than a 95% confidence interval would be. agreed with the original assessments of the authors. Our pre-
ferred species criteria involved using multiple lines of con-
cordant evidence, requiring that at least two of the following
Evaluation of cosmopolitanism
conditions be met: (1) a fixed allozyme difference; (2) a fixed
Incorrect assumptions of cosmopolitan (i.e. global) or multi- allozyme substitution at a different locus; (3) sequence diver-
continental distributions result in an underestimation of diversity. gence (> 5% in mtDNA); (4) clear morphological difference; and
Thus, we searched for genetic studies that shed light on the status (5) clear habitat difference or other ecological segregation. In
of supposedly conspecific populations on different continents cases where such data were not available, we used a proxy for the
and determined the proportion of these morphospecies that concordance definition, based on analogy with other studies. We
probably actually contain two or more species. We estimated an treated lineages showing substantial sequence divergence (> 10%
overall proportion for the branchiopods by pooling our results mtDNA) as species, because in cases where there was more infor-
with a survey of detailed morphological studies on the anomopod mation, lineages differing by this amount always were different
family Chydoridae (Frey, 1995), as our surveys are based on species. We recognized one species not conforming to the
different taxonomic samples. above criteria, Daphnia arenata Hebert, 1995, because Pfrender
The new estimate of branchiopod diversity was calculated by et al. (2000) provide evidence of a habitat shift and genetic differ-
tallying the number of species currently thought to have multi- entiation and suggest that this may represent an example of
continental distributions and then revising diversity upwards incipient speciation.
according to the rate of non-cosmopolitanism indicated by the For all studies, we calculated the ratios of the total to old
surveys. The correction multiplier was calculated as the new number of species. We used linear regression to evaluate the
diversity value divided by the previous total diversity. A range of influence of four factors on the resulting ratio: (1) (log10) sample
plausible values for this multiplier was obtained by using the size of populations, with the expectation that more species will
results of the two data sources separately. be discovered with increased sampling; (2) geographical scale of
the study, with the expectation that more species should be
found at larger scales [three levels: (i) local, such as northern
Diversity within biogeographical regions: morphology and
Italy; (ii) subcontinental, such as western USA; or (iii) conti-
genetics
nental]; (3) year of the most recent taxonomic monograph for
We quantified the missing diversity at a continental scale by the group, with the expectation that more recently revised groups
comparing species richness based on traditional morphological should have smaller ratios; and (4) higher taxonomic group
taxonomy with assessments of diversity based on regional genetic (ordinal level), with the expectation that larger-bodied groups
investigations. We would expect these estimates to converge if the should be more completely described. For this analysis, the total
morphology, including intra- and interpopulation variation, number of new species was the dependent ( y) variable, whereas
were completely known. Subtle but diagnostic morphological the number of old species was controlled for by including it in
differences are generally found between species identified by the regression as one of the independent (x) variables.
genetic analyses (e.g. De Melo & Hebert, 1994; Korí˜ek & Upon finding sample size to be the only significant predictor
Hebert, 1996), although at least one case of a virtually cryptic of the ratio, we estimated diversity correction factors for the
branchiopod species is known (King & Hanner, 1998). Our main branchiopods as a whole in two ways. First, we averaged the
criterion for the inclusion of a genetic study was that it must ratios for the five best studies, judged by the number of samples
include more than one sample per named species. For genera per species and the inclusion of a large number of morphospecies,
that have received a lot of attention (e.g. Daphnia), we selected with the added criterion that they should be in different families
the most comprehensive studies and regions. to avoid having biased the result towards a particular taxon.
We found that most recent authors, in practice, employ a Secondly, we used information from all studies, tallying the
concordance species concept (Avise & Ball, 1990), or a proxy total number of genetic species encountered among studies and
thereof (see below), in counting the number of branchiopod dividing them by the total number of morphospecies included.
species among their samples. For example, most use traditional We obtained a plausible range of correction factors by using the
morphospecies as a starting point and then consider other lowest and highest ratios observed among the five best-studied
types of evidence to identify distinct species with their own groups.
evolutionary trajectories. Here, we also adopted a concordance
species concept, as we expected that this approach would provide
Evaluation of reliability of relative diversity estimates
the best indication of true species boundaries (i.e. where natural
breaks lie in genetic, morphological and ecological variation). We analysed the pattern of taxonomic descriptions over time
Therefore, after we had evaluated the levels of genetic variation to assess how well described diversity performs as an indicator of
observed among named species, lineages that were similarly relative diversity among orders and families. Visual inspection of
divergent from others became candidates for species status. Then the description date curves for branchiopods (Fig. 1) suggests
we considered other factors, such as new morphological or that most have a similar shape, with curves for those taxa with
ecological characters. Thus, we outline a set of pragmatic quanti- quite different current diversity crossing few times during the
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455– 468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 457
S. J. Adamowicz & A. Purvis
Figure 1 Species description curve for the Branchiopoda for (a) all species, (b) species found in Europe, (c) the four most diverse orders
separately, (d) the five most diverse families of Anostraca, and (e) the five most diverse families of Anomopoda.
history of discovery. We evaluated three decreasingly stringent (2) Upon finding heterogeneity and noting that this hetero-
hypotheses about relative diversity in branchiopods: geneity does not appear to be declining over time (see Appendix S4
(1) Is there evidence of taxonomic heterogeneity in description in Supplementary Material), we asked: Is heterogeneity in new
over time? If not, current estimates of relative diversity could be descriptions essentially random over time? Or, do some groups
considered a reliable surrogate for true relative diversity in appear to become relatively more or less diverse over the course of
nature. Thus, after sorting the list of description dates into taxonomic discovery? We tested each taxonomic grouping (same
chronological order, we divided them into 12 bins of 100 descrip- groups as in part 1) separately for trends using binomial regression
tions (the 12th bin contained only 75 species) and tested for in version 1.7.1 (Ihaka & Gentlemen, 1996). The raw data were the
heterogeneity in ordinal composition among bins using a chi- proportions of descriptions in each bin belonging to that taxon.
square (χ 2) test. (We repeated this analysis using temporal bins Slopes significantly different from zero would be interpreted as
with uneven sample sizes: bins were divided mainly into 20-year evidence that described relative diversity has changed over time,
intervals, but with the first interval containing 100 years. Alter- and that current relative diversity estimates may not be stable.
native binnings did not change the results in any of the analyses (3) Finally, are diversity rankings reliable given that there is
and are not reported further.) Some orders were pooled to heterogeneity in the description process? We treated our sets of
avoid small number problems with the χ 2 test, the groups being: bins as samples, and resampled them 1000 times with replace-
(1) Anostraca, (2) Spinicaudata, (3) other large-bodied branchi- ment. We then calculated the total diversity of each taxonomic
opods (Laevicaudata, Cyclestherida, Notostraca), (4) Anomopoda, group in each of these replicates and determined the number of
and (5) other Cladocera (Ctenopoda Onychopoda, Haplopoda). cases where taxonomic groups exchanged places in terms of their
We analysed familial composition within the two largest orders. ranking in species richness, as well as the diversity differentials of
The groups of Anomopoda were: (1) Bosminidae, (2) Chydoridae the taxa involved.
(including the former subfamilies Eurycercidae and Sayciidae),
(3) Daphniidae, (4) Ilyocryptidae and (5) Macrothricidae
Undescribed diversity: what is out there?
(including the new species-poor families it formerly included,
Acantholeberidae, Neothricidae, and Oxyuridae). Also, we used We analysed the correlations between various branchiopod traits
five bins of 110 descriptions, the 5th bin with 119 (and we and description date in order to make predictions about what
also tried 11 bins of 50 descriptions, the last bin with 59; results kinds of species remain to be described. We tested for correlations
were similar and are not shown). The groups of Anostraca were: with:
(1) Branchinectidae, (2) Branchipodidae, (3) Chirocephalidae,
(4) Streptocephalidae, (5) Thamnocephalidae, and (6) other
Body size
families (Artemiidae, Artemiopsidae, Galaziellidae, Linderi-
ellidae and Polyartemiidae); and we used six bins of 50 species We hypothesize that smaller-bodied species will tend to have
(the last with only 39 species). been described later, as found, for example, in birds (Gaston
458 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455–468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Estimating true species diversity
& Blackburn, 1994) and mammalian carnivores (Collen et al., only considered for species endemic to a single biogeographical
2004); however, body size is a poor predictor of description date region. The seven biogeographical regions were coded as binary
in primates (Collen et al., 2004), North American amphibians traits, with each species being present or absent in each region.
and reptiles (Reed & Boback, 2002), Australian scarab beetles The trait data were analysed in two ways. First, all species were
(Allsopp, 1997) and South American passerines (Blackburn & considered as independent data points. Year of description was
Gaston, 1995). regressed against each (pseudo-) continuous trait individually
using . The mean description dates for biogeogeraphical regions
were compared using Tukey’s honestly significant difference
Geographic range
test, with only those species endemic to a single region included,
We predict that widely distributed species will have been dis- in order to compare the different regions as independent
covered earlier, as this is generally the best predictor of descrip- samples. Differences among higher taxa (orders) were also com-
tion date among variables examined in past studies (e.g. Blackburn pared using Tukey’s test. The significance of results obtained
& Gaston, 1995; Allsopp, 1997; Collen et al., 2004). during single-parameter analyses was evaluated by including the
species–level traits, biogeographical regions, and higher taxa (i.e.
with order treated as a single factor with nine levels) in multiple
Latitudinal range
regression models. Secondly, because species’ traits are not statis-
We predict that species with a wide latitudinal range will have tically independent (Felsenstein, 1985; Freckleton et al., 2002), a
been discovered earlier, as they are more likely to be present in phylogenetic comparative analysis was also performed based on
the temperate zone. Bias towards description of temperate a composite high-level phylogeny. (Findings were very similar to
species is known in e.g. insects (Gaston, 1994) and carnivores the taxonomic analysis, and thus the details and results are
(Collen et al., 2004). included in Appendix S5 in Supplementary Material.)
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455– 468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 459
S. J. Adamowicz & A. Purvis
Table 1 Evaluation of alleged cosmopolitan distributions on the basis of genetic evidence. Of the 21 morphospecies evaluated below, only 10
were confirmed to occur on more than one continent, whereas the remaining 11 should each be split into at least two species. It should be borne
in mind that the majority of these examples are from a single genus (Daphnia), whereas the intercontinental phylogeography of species in other
groups is poorly studied. Full references are listed in Appendix S6 in Supplementary Material. Abbreviations: AFR (Africa),
AUS (Australia), EUR (Europe), NA (North America) and SA (South America)
Single
Species Alleged distribution species? Notes Reference code
Order Anostraca
Artemia franciscana NA and SA Yes 1
Artemia parthenogenetica EUR, ASIA, AFR Yes A single species at least in Europe, south-western 2
Asia, and India
Order Anomopoda
Daphnia pulex Holarctic, SA No A panarctic species (in NA and northern Europe) and a 3,4,5,6
different temperate European species
Daphnia pulicaria Holarctic, SA No At least two species in the Holarctic 3,4,5,6
Daphnia middendorffiana arctic NA and EUR No One species restricted to arctic NA 3,4,5
Daphnia tenebrosa arctic EUR, ASIA, NA Yes One species with broad circumarctic distribution 3,4,5
Daphnia magna Holarctic Yes Single species at least in EUR and NA 7
Daphnia lumholtzi AUS, AFR, ASIA, Yes Single species everywhere 7
introduced to NA
Daphnia ambigua NA, SA, introduced to EUR Yes Single species everywhere 8
Daphnia similis NA, SA, EUR, AFR, ASIA No One species in NA and SA; 9,10
Old World species are different
Daphnia obtusa Holarctic, AFR, SA No Different species complexes 6,9,11
present in NA, SA and EUR
Daphnia rosea NA and EUR No Different species in EUR and NA 12
Daphnia galeata NA and EUR No Different species in EUR and NA 12
Daphnia parvula NA, SA, introduced to EUR No Different species in NA and SA 9
Daphnia curvirostris NA (arctic) and EUR Yes 6,13
(broader distribution)
Daphnia longiremis Cold NA and EUR Yes 13
Daphnia umbra Cold NA and EUR Yes 13
Daphnia laevis NA, SA, AFR No Different species in NA and SA; AFR unknown 9
Order Ctenopoda
Sida crystallina NA and EUR No Former subspecies on the two continents shown to 14
be different species
Holopedium amazonicum NA and SA No 15
Holopedium gibberum Holarctic Yes One species in Eurasia and arctic NA (an additional 15
cryptic species in NA)
line as expected, although they could not be classified as statistical the antilog of this value from the diversity of the Oriental and
outliers. After fitting a new regression without these two regions Ethiopian regions give lower probable diversity values of 248
(log species = 0.1189*log area + 1.5808), and adjusting their and 282 and upper values of 263 and 299 for the two regions,
diversity to fit this line, we estimated the richness of the Orient to respectively. Again, adjusting for overall continental endemism,
be 256 species and Ethiopia to be 290 species. Given that the these values would result in 62 to 85 additional species likely
overall degree of continental endemism in our entire data set was undiscovered in those two regions (i.e. because of differential
73%, we assumed that there were an additional 52 undiscovered sampling among regions). These figures produce a range of
species in the Orient and 22 new species in the Ethiopian region. diversity correction ratios of only 1.05 to 1.07.
This would bring the global estimate for Branchiopoda to 1251
species, up from 1176. The resulting ratio, a correction factor of
Evaluation of cosmopolitanism
1.06-fold, is an estimator of the magnitude of differential
sampling among biogeographical regions as a source of diversity We found 21 morphospecies with supposedly intercontinental
underestimation. distributions that have been genetically studied on two or more
The mean residual magnitude in the five-point log species– continents (Table 1). Only ~half (10) of these are actually
log area relationship was 0.0127. Adding and subtracting comprised of conspecific populations on different continents,
460 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455–468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Estimating true species diversity
whereas 11 consist of at least two species each. Since Frey (1995) ness is most sensitive to estimation errors in this factor. Applying
found that 16 of the 21 widespread chydorids studied were prob- the lower and upper ratio for all factors gives a broad range of
ably different species on different continents, our pooled results global diversity estimates of about 1650 to 3810 species.
suggest that c. 64.3% (27 of 42) of branchiopod species thought
to have multicontinental distributions do not. Beginning with
Analysis of relative diversity
our revised estimate of 1251 species of branchiopod, this would
include about 338 species with purported intercontinental distri- Our analyses of the species discovery process revealed that:
butions (based on a 73% endemism rate for the described species). (1) There was significant heterogeneity over time in the taxo-
If 64.3% of these are not actually very widespread (and assuming, nomic composition of new descriptions, both at the ordinal level
conservatively, that each should be split into only two species), an (12 bins; χ 2 = 197.9, d.f. = 44; P < 0.001) and familial level in
additional 217 species need to be added to the total, bringing our anomopods (5 bins, χ2 = 39.5, d.f. = 16; P < 0.001) and anostra-
running estimate of global diversity to 1468 species. Thus, a factor cans (6 bins, χ2 = 59.1, d.f. = 25; P < 0.001).
of c. 1.17-fold is necessary to account for incorrect assumptions (2) There was little evidence for trends over time in the relative
of intercontinental distributions. Using each set of results diversity of species described within bins. The results of quasibi-
separately suggests a plausible range of ratios of 1.14 to 1.21. nomial regression are presented in Table 5, as the residual errors
were overdispersed relative to the expectations for the binomial
model. While ‘other large branchiopod’ species (Notostraca,
Diversity within continents: morphology vs. genetics
Laevicaudata and Cyclestherida) are described less often towards
We found 16 examples of continental and regional genetic the present, and Ilyocryptidae and Thamnocephalidae appear to
surveys that provide information on species diversity in the be increasing in relative diversity, none of these results remained
Branchiopoda (Table 2). We found that ratios of genetic: significant following the sequential Bonferroni correction (Rice,
morphological species ranged from 1.0 to 2.5, whereas the ratio 1989).
for the most comprehensively sampled genus and region (Daphnia (3) Diversity rankings were relatively stable despite heterogeneity
in North America) was 2.33-fold. Regression analysis indicated in the description process. During the bin-resampling analysis at
that the number of genetic species was best explained by the the ordinal level, ‘other large branchiopods’ (with 51 described
combined effect of the number of morphospecies included and species) became more diverse than ‘other Cladocera,’ which has
the number of populations sampled (Table 3; r 2 = 0.974; 87 species, in only 34 of 1000 trials, whereas Spinicaudata (189
P << 0.0001). Comparison of this model with more complex species) overtook Anostraca (289 species) in just nine trials. In all
models by tests indicated that no additional variation was other trials and taxa, the rankings in relative ordinal diversity
explained by geographical scale (F5,13 = 25.24; P = 0.954), year of remained the same as for actual described diversity. For anomo-
the most recent taxonomic monograph (F9,13 = 0.700; pod families, Bosminidae (23 species) overtook Ilyocryptidae
P = 0.611), or higher taxonomic group (F4,13 = 0.229; P = 0.969). (24 species) in 392 of 1000 trials, and Daphniidae (with 150
The average ratio among the five comprehensive studies species) overtook Chydoridae (with 229 species) in just two
selected (see Table 2) was 1.78 genetic to original species. Pooling replicates. There was more swapping of diversity ranks among
across studies, the ratio was 1.58 (as 91 morphospecies were anostracan families; all families (except ‘other families’) exchanged
included among studies and 144 species were recovered by places with another, with all but two pairs swapping places in
genetic surveys). Taking a mid-point ratio, we estimate that a > 100 times in 1000 replicates.
correction factor of c. 1.68-fold is necessary to account for the Among the three data sets (orders and families of anostracans
missing diversity as a result of insufficient knowledge of vari- and anomopods), swapping of ranks occurred in > 50 of 1000
ability within morphospecies. Applying this correction factor trials only between pairs of taxa displaying a maximum ratio of
to our running estimate results in a global diversity estimate of up to 1.525 : 1 in described diversity. Clear separation of relative
c. 2452 species, more than doubling the current described diversity diversity occurred among all pairs of taxa having higher diversity
of the class. Applying the variety of continental ratios among the differentials.
best studies provides a range of plausible ratios of about 1.17 to
2.50, which would produce global diversity estimates of about
Correlates of description date
1710 to 3650 species (using the middle ratio for each of the other
correction factors). Geographical and latitudinal ranges were the largest single
predictors of description date, explaining about 24 and 27% of
the variation in the taxonomic analysis, respectively (Table 5).
Uncertainty in the global estimate of branchiopod diversity
Body size and latitudinal centroid were also negatively related
The middle estimates for each of the three ratios indicate that there to description date, but explained little variation in description
are c. 2.1 times more species of branchiopod in nature than date (c. 2% each). All four of these factors remained significant
currently described. However, there is considerable uncertainty when attempting to simplify a multiple regression model
in the estimate of c. 2450 species (Table 4). Because the ratio for including endemic species (P < 0.0001), although the explana-
correcting for unknown diversity within continents is by far the tory power of the model was lower than the single-predictor
largest of our three correction factors, the estimate of total rich- models (r 2 = 0.19) because of the variation in geographical range
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455– 468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 461
S. J. Adamowicz & A. Purvis
Table 2 Comparison of species diversity estimates within continents or smaller regions from morphological vs. genetic studies. Asterisks
designate those studies selected for calculating the first diversity correction ratio to account for incomplete knowledge of faunas within
continents (see text). Full references are listed in Appendix S7 in Supplementary Material
Order Anostraca
*Branchinella in Australia 12 (12 species were 1–4 14 33 samples from across 5
included in the study, much of Australia, including
but 27 are known 12 of the known species
in Australia)
Parartemia in Australia 8 6,7 10 17 samples from across 8
Australia, focusing on the west
including all known species
Artemia from China 1 9 1 Nine samples 10
Artemia from Italy 2 9 2 Eight samples 11
Artemia in South America 2 9 2 Nine populations from Chile, 12
Brazil, Peru, and Argentina
Chirocephalus in Italy 6 13 6 using mtDNA 22 populations (all six 14
(5 using allozymes) morphospecies)
Order Notostraca
*Lepidurus in temperate 4 15 5 18 habitats (mostly from 15
North America western USA)
Triops in North America 1 16,17 2 31 populations of the 18
morphospecies Triops
longicaudatus in western USA
Order Spinicaudata
Three genera in northern Italy 3 (included in study) 3 Seven samples 19
Order Anomopoda
*Bosmina in North America 6 20 10 72 habitats (98 single-species 21,22
samples) from across much
of North America
*Daphnia in North America 15 23 35 More than 2000 samples 24–39
ranging from Mexico to arctic
Canada collected by Hebert
and colleagues
Daphnia in Argentina 11 40–42 16 154 water bodies from 43 for 15 species;
across most of the country for Daphnia pulex
(Adamowicz and
Marinone,
unpublished data)
Daphnia in Australia 12 44–48 24 About 130 samples 49–52
(including Daphniopsis species, (most intensively sampled in
which are now known to be the south-eastern and
part of Daphnia) south-western regions)
Daphnia in the former 6 53 6 35 54
Czechoslovakia
Simocephalus in North America 5 55 8 24 samples from across 56
North America
Order Ctenopoda
*Holopedium in North 2 57 5 180 habitats 58 – 60
and South America
Sida in North America 1 57 1 68 habitats 61
462 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455–468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Estimating true species diversity
Table 3 Regression analysis of factors influencing the total number of species in an area, as revealed by genetic studies
Table 4 Estimates of diversity correction factors to account for three likely sources of diversity underestimation in branchiopods. The effects of
uncertainty in different factors on our estimate of global branchiopod diversity are explored
1. Differential taxonomic effort among major biogeographical regions 1.05 1.06 1.07
(Estimate of global diversity using mid ratio for other factors) (2429) (2452) (2475)
2. Incorrect assumption of multicontinental distributions 1.14 1.17 1.21
(Estimate of global diversity using mid ratio for other factors) (2389) (2452) (2536)
3. Incomplete knowledge of continental faunas 1.17 1.68 2.50
(Estimate of global diversity using mid ratio for other factors) (1707) (2452) (3649)
Range of overall correction (product of the three difference sources) 1.39 2.08 3.24
using lower and upper values for all three ratios
(Overall range of diversity values using lower and upper values for all ratios) (1648) (2452) (3810)
Table 5 Results of a test for trends in the taxonomic composition of new species descriptions over time. The relative diversity of higher taxa
across description bins was regressed against ordered bin number using quasi-binomial regression, and the significance of the slope was tested
using F-tests (with 1 d.f.) comparing the two-parameter with the one-parameter (intercept) model. The three P-values marked with asterisks are
significant if interpreted as individual tests, but none of these remained significant (at a total α = 0.05) after sequential Bonferroni correction
(Rice, 1989) within each of the three data sets
F-statistic Slope of
Taxon (comparing models) regression P-value
Orders
Anomopoda 0.0487 — 0.831
Other Cladocera (Ctenopoda, Onychopoda and Haplopoda) 1.375 — 0.268
Anostraca 2.546 — 0.142
Spinicaudata 1.111 — 0.317
Other large-bodied orders (Cyclestherida, Laevicaudata and Notostraca) 6.926 −0.13 0.025*
Anomopod families
Bosminidae 0.103 — 0.756
Chydoridae 0.727 — 0.416
Daphniidae 3.789 — 0.0834
Ilyocryptidae 9.128 0.147 0.0145*
Macrothricidae 0.794 — 0.396
Anostracan families
Branchinectidae 2.302 — 0.204
Branchipodidae 0.0003 — 0.986
Chirocephalidae 4.670 — 0.0968
Streptocephalidae 1.175 — 0.339
Thamnocephalidae 16.006 0.286 0.0161*
Other families 0.9793 — 0.3784
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455– 468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 463
S. J. Adamowicz & A. Purvis
Table 6 Relationships between several types of branchiopod traits and year of species description. Only the endemics were included in Tukey’s
test when comparing biogeographical regions so that these could be compared independently without the pull of cosmopolitan species (which
tend to be described early). These taxonomic results are based on all species being treated as independent data points; see Appendix S5 in
Supplementary Material for phylogenetic results
Species trait Linear regression of single predictor variable Higher taxon Tukey’s test comparing multiple means
n Slope r2 P value Mean description date (total n = 1176)
(Log) body size 925 −15.24 0.016 0.0001*** Anomopoda (n = 560) 1930.7 55 Eight
Geographic range 1175 −14.13 0.244 < 2.2 × 10−16*** Anostraca (n = 290) 1939.6 55 5 44 significant
Latitudinal range 1172 −20.02 0.268 < 2.2 × 10−16*** Ctenopoda (n = 52) 1934.5 5 5 44 4 44 differences
Latitudinal centroid 852 −5.16 0.020 2.9 × 10−5*** Cyclestherida (n = 2) 1923.0 3 4 64 4 66 at a family-
(endemics) Haplopoda (n = 2) 1863.0 16 6 4 wise
4 6
Laevicaudata (n = 35) 1915.7 7 4 4 44 α = 5%
5 74 4 74
Notostraca (n = 15) 1879.8 7
Onychopoda (n = 33) 1896.5 6 74 7
Spinicaudata (n = 187) 1922.7 7 7
Biogeographical region Tukey’s test comparing multiple means Traits in models Multiple regression (taxonomic analyses)
Mean description date F-statistic r2 P value
(total n = 852 endemic species)
1. Species traits* 161.73,921 0.345 << 0.0001***
Nearctic 1945.7 2. Biogeographical 64.097,1168 0.278 << 0.0001***
Neotropics 1953.0 #55 regions†
Europe 1936.6 $6 4 Three significantly 3. Higher taxa (order) 6.1098,1167 0.0402 << 0.0001***
4
Palaearctic Asia 1936.3 7 different pairs at a 4. Species traits + 64.0910,914 0.412 << 0.0001***
6
Ethiopian 1932.7 family-wise α = 5% regions‡
4
Oriental 1952.2 4 5. Species + regions + 43.2418,906 0.462 << 0.0001***
Australia 1933.8 7 higher taxon§
*Body size, geographical and latitudinal ranges were included; all terms remained significant upon attempting model simplification.
†All regions were retained in the model.
‡All species traits remained in the model, but only Europe, Asia and Ethiopia remained of the biogeographical regions, upon model simplification.
§All species traits, higher taxon, Europe, Asia and Ethiopia remained in the model after model simplification.
464 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455–468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Estimating true species diversity
has been recognized that species diversity is incompletely known taxonomists’ understanding of diversity in the past would have
even within Europe (Frey, 1989), an observation reinforced by the included many species that have since been synonymized. A
shape of the species description curve for species occurring in proper analysis of the impact of synonymy on relative diversity
Europe (Fig. 1b). This high correction factor is attributed partially trends would have required very detailed information about all
to intensive surveys revealing rare species, but the most important the species names there have ever been and when all synonymies
component of this factor was the splitting of described morpho- were made (see Alroy, 2002), data that are not readily available for
species. Most species recovered by the genetic analyses had previ- the Branchiopoda. Also, our rule of thumb may be appropriate
ously been pigeon-holed into known species, often ‘sensu lato’, and only for taxonomic groups of intermediate ranking that share
thus it is clear that a proper understanding of species boundaries is a general habitat and many characteristics (such as size and dis-
necessary to complete the quantification of branchiopod diversity. persability). Distantly related clades in vastly different adaptive
Since only 20 branchiopod species have been formally zones, especially remote ones, may be at very different points in
described so far after being identified as new by genetic analyses, the taxonomic discovery process. For example, among deep-sea
most morphospecies that require ‘splitting’ still await taxonomic benthic crustaceans (Grassle & Maciolek, 1992), about 70% were
attention. While splitting will account for most new species, found to be new, suggesting that true diversity may be more
there is reason to believe that there remain completely new than 300% higher than described diversity. Thus, wider diver-
organisms to be discovered from the wild. Within the past five sity differentials are probably required in order to be confident
years there have been five new genera described that were not about diversity differences among higher taxa.
the result of taxonomic revision (Cammaerts & Mertens, 1999,
Chiambeng & Dumont, 1999 and Nagawana, 1999 described the
The impact of synonymy on total diversity estimates
same genus; Kotov, 2000; Nagawana & Orgiljanova, 2000; Van
Damme et al., 2003), with three of these from the Lake Baikal A source of error in estimating diversity not considered here is
region and one from tropical Africa, and researchers have recently synonymy. The species diversity encompassed by currently valid
recognized a new family of anomopod (Santos-Flores & Dodson, names can be overestimated because of the fact that some species
2003). Our analyses of correlates of description date suggest that names are destined to become synonymized (Alroy, 2002).
species yet to be described will have small geographical and Within the branchiopods, this problem is particularly severe in
latitudinal ranges, will tend to occur at low latitudes and will the conchostracans, whose taxonomy is well-known to be
have a higher chance of being found in the Neotropics. There is especially poor (as noted by Straßkraba, 1965a,b, 1966; Timms &
not expected to be a trend with regard to body size, but there may Richter, 2002). For example, of the 59 species of spinicaudatan
be a weak tendency for new species to belong to the most diverse described by Daday in the early 1900s, 22 have been syn-
orders Anomopoda and Anostraca. Thus, further sampling from onymized since, eight with Cyzicus tetracerus alone (from Brtek,
all habitat types and from the (sub)tropics is expected to yield 1997). However, many other species have never been studied
many new species. For branchiopods, as for life at large, field again and are only known from their type locality. One has to
sampling will remain for the foreseeable future a vital component wonder how many more are destined to be lost once a thorough
of completing the inventory of earth’s biodiversity (May, 2004). revision including new collections is complete. Conversely, many
names that have been synonymized are now being resurrected on
the basis of new, especially genetic, evidence (e.g. Triops newberryi,
Characterizing the species discovery process
see King & Hanner, 1998 and Daphnia magniceps, see Taylor
It is not surprising that we found evidence of heterogeneity in the et al., 1998). Moreover, species that morphologists have noted to
higher taxonomic composition of species descriptions over time, be unduly variable, and which tend to have many varieties and a
given that taxonomy is conducted by specialists who publish complex history of synonymy, are found actually to be species
descriptions or monographic revisions periodically. However, complexes (e.g. Taylor et al., 1996; Sassaman et al., 1997; King &
the fact that we found little evidence for trends in the composi- Hanner, 1998).
tion of descriptions suggests that this heterogeneity is largely Overall, for the branchiopods, it seems that the problem of
haphazard and appears to even out over time. Moreover, we overestimating diversity because of synonymy is overshadowed
suggest that diversity rankings based on species–richness differ- by the underestimation of diversity due to incomplete sam-
entials of greater than 1.5-fold are robust to the erratic nature of pling of variability within species. Most genetic studies increase
the description process. As diversity estimates can have large the number of species (see Table 2) and do not favour new
effects on the conclusions of macroevolutionary studies (Isaac & synonymies. The only exceptions we have encountered are
Purvis, 2004; Isaac et al., 2004), such a ‘rule of thumb’ may be relev- the proposed mergers of Artemia salina + Artemia tunisiana
ant for interpreting the reliability of diversity differences among (Triantaphyllidis et al., 1997) and Daphnia spinulata + Daphnia
clades. Thus, while caution is required when using described notacantha (Adamowicz et al. 2004). However, while some
diversity data, we suggest that there is a substantial signal in such synonymizing of described species will be necessary during
information that can be drawn on for evolutionary research. taxonomic revision of the Branchiopoda, we suspect that this
An unfortunate limitation of our study is that for analysing factor will have relatively minor impact on global diversity
relative diversity over time, it would have been desirable to use compared to the proliferation of species required by the results of
the ‘then valid’ species, rather than the ‘now valid’ species, as detailed genetic and morphological surveys.
Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455– 468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 465
S. J. Adamowicz & A. Purvis
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database for Branchiopoda
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tion, 18, 70 –74.
Sarah Adamowicz is interested in the evolution of
Taylor, D.J., Finston, T.L. & Hebert, P.D.N. (1998) Biogeography
biodiversity. Currently a PhD student at the Imperial
of a widespread freshwater crustacean: pseudocongruence and
College London, she is investigating evolutionary trends
cryptic endemism in the North American Daphnia laevis
and correlates of species richness in the Crustacea.
complex. Evolution, 52, 1648 –1670.
Taylor, D.J., Hebert, P.D.N. & Colbourne, J.K. (1996) Phylogenetics Andy Purvis is Professor in Biodiversity in the Division
and evolution of the Daphnia longispina group (Crustacea) of Biology at the Imperial College London. He takes a
based on 12S rDNA sequence and allozyme variation. Molecular phylogenetic approach to a range of questions in
Phylogenetics and Evolution, 5, 495 –510. macroevolution and conservation biology. Among his
Timms, B.V. & Richter, S. (2002) A preliminary analysis of the current projects is coediting a symposium volume entitled
conchostracans (Crustacea: Spinicaudata and Laevicaudata) of Phylogeny and Conservation and writing a book on
the middle Paroo catchment of the Australian arid-zone. macroevolution.
Hydrobiologia, 486, 239 –247.
468 Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 455–468 © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd