INVESTMENT STRATEGY

MNCS Institution Research Team

“Bedah Emiten : Road to Investor Gathering 2019”

MNC Financial Center Lt. 14 – 16
Jl. Kebon Sirih No. 21 – 27, Jakarta 10340, Indonesia
www.mncsekuritas.id Aug 2019
a member of MNC Group Thendra Crisnanda & Team | thendra.crisnanda@mncgroup.com | +6221 29080 3111 Ext.52162

Introduction
Pengenalan mengenai dasar
analisis dalam bedah saham.
Anailsis Fundamental dan
Teknikal
Contents
“Price is what
you pay. Value is
what you get.”
Warren Buffet Quotes on Investing
Fundamental Analysis Snapshot MNCS View 2019 Short Practice
Dasar – dasar analisa Pemaparan analisa dan 5 Tricks to know what you
fundamental melalui top to pandangan dari MNC BUY. RTI
down analysis Sekuritas terhadap prospek
pasar saham Indonesia
2019/2020
 Curriculum Vitae
JL SAFIR VIII BLOCK C.15 NO.38, PURI MEDIA, KEMBANGAN, JAKARTA BARAT
CELL +62 819 77867799
EMAIL thendra.crisnanda@mncgroup.com; blessing_project@yahoo.com

Personal Details
Place and date of birth : Lubuklinggau, 15 July 1989
Formal Education
Tertiary
2013 - Current BINUS University, Jakarta, Indonesia
Doctoral Candidate (ABD)
Entrepreneurship and Innovation
2011- 2013 Pelita Harapan University, Jakarta, Indonesia
Master of Management Program
2007 - 2011 Sriwijaya University, Palembang, Indonesia
Accountancy Bachelor Program

Work Experience Others

April 2017 – Current PT MNC Sekuritas
Head of Research Institutional Business
November 2016 to April 2017 PT BNI Sekuritas
Coordinator of Equity Research Manager
March 2016 to November 2016 PT BNI Securities
Investment Banking Manager
Sept 2010 – June 11th 2011 PT Asjaya Indosurya Securities
Equity Broker/ Dealer
•Guest speaker at Seminar of Roadshow Campus to Universitas Pelita Harapan (UPH)’s
Session Class on May 21th 2015, Campus at UIN, Pekan Baru on May 8th 2014 and
Warmadewa Univesity, Bali on Sept 27th 2013.
•Guest speaker at Bloomberg TV Indonesia; Berita Satu; MNC Business Channel (MNC
Media); CNN Indonesia; TV Bursa Business and Capital Market Television (IBCM); Liputan
6.com and TVRI (Indonesian State – Owned TV Station); Radio Smart FM – Palembang
•Capital Market Advisors at several public listed companies in Indonesia

Project Portofolio Interests and Hobbies

June 2017 Hartadinata Abadi Tbk (HRTA)
Initial Public Offering (IPO) Project, Market
Capitalization : IDR 1.38 trillion
July 2017 Global Mediacom Tbk Bond Issuance
Offering Value : Rp 1.1 tn; tenor : 5,6,7 years
Financial Technology (FinTech); Private Equity (PE); Painting and Art, Music (listening and
singing), reading self-development and business books, watching sci-fi and romantic
comedy movies.
 Introduction
Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Short Analysis and Practice

Ideal Buy Low, Sell High and

Buy High, Sell Higher
Concept

SELL
TECHNICAL
INDICATOR
BUY
 Trend Analysis
SELL
 Stochastic (3,12)
 MACD
 Elliot Wave (EW)
BUY  Tight Cut Lost
 Profit Target
 Money Management
 Simple Portfolio
Fundamental Analysis
TOP TO DOWN ANALYSIS  Macroeconomics Analysis
Pendekatan Top to Down analysis melalui analisa
dari kondisi makroekonomi kemudian pemiihan
sectoral yang prospektif dan akhirnya analisis mikro
terkait kondisi fundamental masing – masing  Sectoral Analysis
emiten.

 Micro Analysis : Bedah Emiten

BOTTOM UP ANALYSIS
Creating Alpha Return
 Investment Porfolio Selection
Macroeconomic and Sectoral Analysis

Tingkat Inflasi
1 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Indonesia/ GDP

2
Harga Komoditas
. 3 Tingkat Suku Bunga

4
Perubahan Kebijakan dan
Peraturan 5 Neraca Perdagangan dan Berjalan

6
 BUY Siklus
Ekonomi
Trading dan Investasi akan jauh lebih
baik saat up-cycle dibandingkan
dengan down-cycle. Oleh karena itu
dibutuhkan money management.
Peak

Peak Recovery STOPLOSS MONEY

SELL MANAGEMENT

Contents Title Contents Title

Recovery Recession
Peak Get a modern
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Recession
Analisis
Mikro
ANALISA LAPORAN
KEUANGAN
Analisis Rasio
 Analisa Laporan Keuangan

Income
Statement

Statement
Financial of Changes
Cash Flow Statement in Equity

Balance
Sheet
 Laporan Keuangan
Dalam laporan arus kas, hal-hal yang
dilaporkan diantaranya :
1. Arus Kas Operasi
2. Arus Kas Investasi
3. Arus Kas Pendanaan
4. Kenaikan atau penurunan bersih kas
selama periode tersebut

Neraca Laporan Laba Rugi

Komponen neraca yang dapat diperhatikan yaitu rasio lancar dan Fokus kepada laba operasi
hutang terhadap ekuitas

Arus Kas Analisis Rasio

Arus kas terutama operasi seharusnya positif Rasio Profitabilitas, Liquidty, Solvency, Activity, Market Ratio
 Analisis Rasio
• Return on Assets (ROA)
• Return on Equity (ROE)
• Net Profit Margin (NPM)
• Operating Profit Margin
(OPM)

Profitability

• PER
• PBV
• Price to Sales Liquidity
• PEG Market • Current Ratio

Ratio FINANCIAL • Quick Ratio

• Cash Ratio
RATIOS

• Debt to Equity Ratio (DER)

• Inventory Turnover Ratio • Debt to Total Asset Ratio
• Receivable Turnover Ratio Activity Solvency • Long Term Debt to Equity
• Interest Coverage Ratio
 Analisis Rasio
LIQUIDITY RATIO
Rasio Likuiditas menunjukkan kemampuan Perusahaan dalam
memenuhi kewajiban jangka pendeknya.

PROFITABILITY RATIO.
Rasio Profitabilitas menunjukkan kemampuan Perseroan untuk
menghasilkan suatu keuntungan dan menyokong pertumbuhan baik
untuk jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Profitabilitas
perseroan biasanya dilihat dari Laporan Laba Rugi Perseroan yang
menunjukkan laporan hasil kinerja Perseroan.
.
 Analisis Rasio
ACTIVITY RATIO
Rasio aktivitas adalah rasio yang mengukur seberapa efektif
perusahaan dalam memanfaatkan semua sumber daya. Semua
rasio aktivitas ini melibatkan perbandingan antara tingkat
penjualan dan investasi pada berbagai jenis aktiva.

SOLVENCY RATIO.
Rasio Solvabilitas atau Leverage Ratio menunjukkan kemampuan
perseroan untuk memenuhi seluruh kewajibannya, yang diukur
dengan membuat perbandingan seluruh kewajiban terhadap seluruh
aktiva dan perbandingan seluruh kewajiban terhadap ekuitas.
Solvency Ratio dapat dibedakan menjadi: Debt Ratio dan Interest
Coverage Ratio
 Analisis Rasio
MARKET RATIO
Market Ratio merupakan rasio kinerja saham yang memberikan
ukuran kemampuan manajemen menciptakan nilai pasar
usahanya di atas biaya investasi.
Top Topics and
Questions of Market
MNCS VIEW 2019
in 2H19

1 Arah Kebijakan Suku Bunga The FED & Langkah Bank Indonesia

2 Trump War Saga : Trade -> Currency -> IT Technology

3 Sinyal Resesi Perekonomian Global

4 Sectoral and Stock Picking di 2H19

5 Target IHSG di 2019

 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
FED Rate

Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
US 10 Year Yield

Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Rate soon

Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
The Direction of FED Policy : Dovish!

Mar-19
2.015
Yield will be followed by lagging FED
Leading movement of US Govt 10 Year
 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08

Bearish Market
Mar-09

on Lowering Rate
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dow Jones

Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
FED Rate

Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Rate

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
On Uprising

Jun-17
Bullish Market

Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Estimation & Expectation VS Reality & Fact

Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Major Risks for Indonesia Equity Market
Trump War Saga : Trade to
Currency and Tech War
 2019 - Crisis, 2020 – Recession?
Emerging Market Asia (LHS) China (LHS) Advance Economy (RHS) US (RHS)
7 3.5

6.8
3
6.6
2.5
6.4

6.2 2
%

%
6 1.5
5.8
1
5.6
0.5
5.4

5.2 0
2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F
Country 2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F
World 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8
Advance Economy 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.5
US 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.5 1.7 1.6
Emerging Market Asia 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.8
China 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.0
India 7.1 6.7 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.5
 Global Recession is Flashing in US and HK
US 3month Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (LHS) US 10year Bond Constant Maturity Rate (LHS) Dow Jones Index (RHS)
16 30000
14
25000
12
20000
10

USD
%

8 15000
6
10000
4
5000
2
0 0

*Grey shades mark recession

HK 10Y Bond Yield (LHS) HIBOR 3M (LHS) Hang Seng Index (RHS)
12 35000

10 Great Recession 30000

25000
8
20000

HKD
%

6
15000
4
10000
2 5000
0 0
May-05

May-10

May-15
May-00
Apr-98

Feb-99
Jul-99

Oct-00
Mar-01

Jan-02
Jun-02

Apr-03

Jul-04

Oct-05
Mar-06

Jan-07
Jun-07

Apr-08

Jul-09

Oct-10
Mar-11

Jan-12
Jun-12

Apr-13

Jul-14

Oct-15
Mar-16

Jan-17
Jun-17

Apr-18
Feb-04

Feb-09

Feb-14

Feb-19
Sep-98

Dec-99

Aug-01

Nov-02

Sep-03

Dec-04

Aug-06

Nov-07

Sep-08

Dec-09

Aug-11

Nov-12

Sep-13

Dec-14

Aug-16

Nov-17

Sep-18
 Commodity Price and Forecast
CPO Projection Coal Projection
3300
130
3100 120
110
2900
100
2700 90
2500 80
70
2300 60
2100 50
40
1900 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
1700
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22
Crude Oil WTI Projection
Gold Projection
120
1600
110
1500 100
90
1400 80
70
1300
60
1200 50
40
1100 30
20
1000
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Correlation between JCI and Oil Price
Correlation between CAD to Oil, Currency and JCI
Correlation between CAD to Oil, Currency and JCI
MNCS Top Sectoral Picking!
Investment Theme FY19 :

 Consumer Sector (OVERWEIGHT)

 Saham pilihan : ICBP, GGRM, ERAA, HOKI

 Metal Sector (NEUTRAL)

 Saham pilihan : INCO, ANTM

 Telco Sector (NEUTRAL)

 Saham pilihan : TLKM, EXCL

 Banking Sector (NEUTRAL)

 Saham pilihan : BBCA, BNGA

 Coal Sector (NEUTRAL)

 Saham pilihan : PTBA, ADRO

 Plantation Sector (NEUTRAL)

 Saham pilihan : LSIP

 Automotive Sector (NEUTRAL)

 Saham pilihan : ASII

 Construction Sector (NEUTRAL)

 Saham pilihan : PTPP, WIKA

 Cement Sector (NEUTRAL)

 Saham pilihan : SMGR

 Property Sector (NEUTRAL)

 Saham pilihan: PWON, DMAS
JCI Heat Map in Last 5 Year
MNCS Primbon Index 2018
 MNCS Primbon Index 2019

Bullish until May’2019 Bearish until Nov’2019

 Bull and Bear Scenario

5.558

BUY SELL
6.334
Kami mengasumsikan secara moderat bahwa IHSG hingga 1H19 bertumbuh ke level : 1) Optimistic
Scenario : 7.110 (PE19E multiple : 16,45x, Rf :7,4%, tingkat probabilitas 25%); 2) Moderate Scenario : 6.334
(PE19E : 15,03x, Rf :8,1%, tingkat probabilitas 45%); 3) Pesimistic Scenario : 5.558 (PE19E : 13,53x, Rf :
9%, tingkat probabilitas 30%).
Simple Investment
Trick and Tips
 5 Simple Tricks and Applicative

Profitability Trend Positive Cashflow Interesting

Valuation
Minimal 3 tahun hingga Memilih Perusahaan
Carilah Perusahaan
5 tahun pertumbuhan dengan arus kas yang
dengan prospek bagus
laba Perusahaan positif
tetapi nilai valuasi yang
bertumbuh
menarik
berkesinambungan

RTI Business Dividend Play Low DER

Download aplikasi RTI Perusahaan yang rajin Perusahaan dengan
membagikan dividen rasio hutang terhadap
setiap tahun. modal yang rendah
(<1x)
5 Simple Tricks and Applicative

Search the
ticker code
 Disclaimer

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