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#5-6 (189-190), 2016 39
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¹Çï³ñÏíáÕ Ý»ñ¹ñáõÙÝ»ñÇÝ μÝáñáß Ñ³ßí³ñÏÝ»ñÁ: سë-
ÑÇÙùáõÙ ÁÝÏ³Í ·áñÍáÝÝ»ñÇ í»ñÉáõÍáõÃÛáõÝÁ
ݳíáñ³å»ë, ³å³·³ »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÇ Ù³ëáí
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ٳϻñåáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÇ éÇëÏ»ñÇ Ï³é³í³ñÙ³Ý ï»ë³ÝÏÛáõ-
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ÝÇó: ²Ûë ³éáõÙáí ëáõÛÝ í»ñÉáõÍáõÃÛ³Ùμ ËݹÇñ ¿ ¹ñí»É
Ï»ï³ÛÝáõÃÛ³Ý å»ï³Ï³Ý å³ñï³ïáÙë»ñÁ å»ïù ¿
μ³Õ¹³ï»É »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý ÏáñÁ ï»ëáõÃÛ³Ý Ù»ç Ýϳ-
³å³Ñáí»Ý ÙÇ»õÝáõÛÝ ëå³ëíáÕ »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛáõÝÁ2: ²Û-
ñ³·ñíáÕ ÑÇÙÝ³Ï³Ý μ³Õ³¹ñ³ï³ññ»ñÇ, »õ μ³ó³Ñ³Ûï»É
ëÇÝùÝ` »Ã» ÏáñÇ ÁÝóóÇÏ ï»ëùÝ áõÝÇ ¹ñ³Ï³Ý ûùáõ-
í»ñçÇÝÝ»ñÇë ³×Ù³Ý Ï³Ù Ýí³½Ù³Ý ÙÇïáõÙÝ»ñÁ: ²ÛÝ Ñݳ-
ÃÛáõÝ, ³å³ ßáõϳÛÇ Ù³ëݳÏÇóÝ»ñÁ ëå³ëáõÙ »Ý ³å³-
ñ³íáñáõÃÛáõÝ Ïï³ å³ñï³ïáÙë»ñÇ å³Ûáõë³ÏÝ»ñÁ (÷³-
·³ÛáõÙ ïáÏáë³¹ñáõÛùÝ»ñÇ μ³ñÓñ³óáõÙ:
ûÃ) ϳé³í³ñáÕ ïÝï»ëí³ñáÕ ëáõμÛ»ÏïÝ»ñÇÝ ³é³í»É
èÇëÏ åñ»ÙdzÛÇ ÑÇÙùáõÙ ÁÝÏ³Í »Ý §Çñ³óí»ÉÇáõÃÛ³Ý
³ñ¹Ûáõݳí»ï ϳé³í³ñ»É ßáõÏ³Û³Ï³Ý éÇëÏÁ, »õ Ùdzų-
ݳËÁÝïñáõÃ۳ݦ (liquidity preference),§ßáõϳÛÇ ë»·Ù»Ý-
Ù³Ý³Ï ÑÇÙù ÁݹáõÝ»Éáí éÇëÏ åñ»ÙdzÛÇ í³ñù³·ÇÍÁ`
ï³íáñٳݦ (market segmentation) »õ §Ý³ËÁÝïñ»ÉÇáõ-
ϳÝ˳ï»ë»É »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý ÏáñÇ Ñݳñ³íáñ ï»ëùÁ:
Ã۳ݦ (preferred habitat) ï»ëáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÁ3, áñáÝù ÏáñÇ Ã»-
àõëáõÙݳëÇñáõÃÛáõÝÁ ϳï³ñí»É ¿` ÑÇÙÝí»Éáí å»ï³-
ùáõÃÛáõÝÁ μ³ó³ïñáõÙ »Ý Ý»ñ¹ñáÕÝ»ñÇ` ïáÏáë³¹ñáõÛùÝ»-
Ï³Ý å³ñï³ïáÙë»ñÇ »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý Ïáñ»ñÇ Ù³ëáí
ñÇ í»ñ³μ»ñÛ³É ëå³ëáõÙÝ»ñÇó ï³ñμ»ñíáÕ ³ÛÉ ·áñÍáÝÝ»-
í»ñÉáõÍ³Ï³Ý ÝÛáõûñÇ íñ³ (Solomon Brothers, CFA
ñáí: èÇëÏ åñ»ÙÇ³Ý ³ñï³Ñ³ÛïáõÙ ¿ ï³ñμ»ñ ųÙÏ»-
Institute »õ ³ÛÉÝ): ì»ñÉáõÍáõÃÛáõÝ Ñ³Ù³ñ û·ï³·áñÍí»É »Ý
ï³ÛÝáõÃÛ³Ý å³ñï³ïáÙë»ñÇ ëå³ëíáÕ »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõ-
09.07.2013-11.04.2015ÃÃ. ųٳݳϳѳïí³ÍÇ ë÷áÃ
ÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÇ ï³ñμ»ñáõÃÛáõÝÁ éÇëÏÇó ½»ñÍ »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõ-
»Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý ÏáñÇ ·Íáí Ùáõïù³ÛÇÝ ïíÛ³ÉÝ»ñÁ: ì»-
ÃÛ³Ý ÝϳïÙ³Ùμ4: Àëï ¿áõÃÛ³Ý, éÇëÏ åñ»ÙÇ³Ý ³ñï³-
ñáÝßÛ³É ïíÛ³ÉÝ»ñÁ Ùß³Ïí»É »Ý` û·ï³·áñÍ»Éáí ë³ÑáÕ
ѳÛïáõÙ ¿ Ý»ñ¹ñáÕÝ»ñÇ ÏáÕÙÇó å³Ñ³ÝçíáÕ Ñ³í»ÉÛ³É
å³ïáõѳÝáí Ïáñ»ÉÛ³ódzݻñÇ, ÑÇåáû½Ý»ñÇ ³é³çù³ß-
»Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛáõÝÁ ï³ñμ»ñ ųÙÏ»ï³ÛÝáõÃÛ³Ý å³ñ-
Ù³Ý »õ ëïáõ·Ù³Ý, ³íïáÏáñ»ÉÛ³ódzÛÇ ×ß·ñïÙ³Ý »õ é»·-
ï³ïáÙë»ñáõÙ áñáß³ÏÇ áõÕÕí³ÍáõÃÛ³Ùμ Ý»ñ¹ñáõÙÝ»ñÇ
ñ»ëÇáÝ áõ éÇëÏ-áõéáõóÇÏáõÃÛ³Ý í»ñÉáõÍáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÇ Ù»-
ѳٳñ:
Ãá¹Ý»ñÁ:
²ÛÅ Ý»ñϳ۳óÝ»Ýù »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý ÏáñÇ §éÇëÏ-áõ- àõéáõóÇÏáõÃÛ³Ý ³é³í»ÉáõÃÛ³Ý5 μ³Õ³¹ñ³ï³ññÝ
éáõóÇÏáõÃÛáõݦ μ³Õ³¹ñ³ï³ññ»ñÁ »õ ¹ñ³Ýó ³é³ÝÓݳ- ³é³ÝÓݳóíáõÙ ¿ å³ñï³ïáÙë»ñÇ »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛáõÝ-
ѳïÏáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÁ ÐÐ-áõÙ£ Ý»ñÇ ÷á÷áËáõÃÛ³Ý ³ñ¹ÛáõÝùáõÙ ·ÝÇ íñ³ áõéáõóÇÏáõ-
àõëïǪ å³ñ½³μ³ÝÙ³Ý ³éáõÙáí Ýß»Ýù, áñ »Ï³Ùï³μ»- ÃÛ³Ý áõÝ»ó³Í Ý߳ݳϳÉÇ ¹ñ³Ï³Ý ³½¹»óáõÃÛáõÝÁ ѳßíÇ
ñáõÃÛ³Ý Ïáñ ѳëϳóáõÃÛáõÝÁ ÝáõÛݳóíáõÙ ¿ å»ï³Ï³Ý ³éÝ»Éáõ Ýå³ï³Ïáí: ²Ûëå»ë, μ³ñÓñ áõéáõóÇÏáõÃÛáõÝ áõ-
å³ñï³ïáÙë»ñÇ ë÷áà ÏáñÇ Ñ»ï: ºÏ³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý Ý»óáÕ å³ñï³ïáÙëÇ ·ÇÝÁ, Ç å³ï³ëË³Ý »Ï³Ùï³μ»-
ñáõÃÛ³Ý ³×Ç, Ýí³½áõÙ ¿ ³í»ÉÇ ùÇã, ù³Ý ѳٳÝÙ³Ý, μ³Ûó
ÏáñÁ ϳñ»ÉÇ ¿ ¹Çï³ñÏ»É1 áñå»ë Ñ»ï»õÛ³É 3 μ³Õ³¹ñ³-
ó³Íñ áõéáõóÇÏáõÃÛ³Ùμ å³ñï³ïáÙëÇ ·ÇÝÁ: ØÇ»õÝáõÛÝ
ï³ññ»ñÇ Ñ³Ýñ³·áõÙ³ñ.
ųٳݳÏ, »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý Ýí³½Ù³Ý Å³Ù³Ý³Ï ³Û¹
êå³ëáõÙÝ»ñ (market rate expectations)- ³å³·³ ïá-
å³ñï³ïáÙë»ñÇ ·ÇÝÝ ³×áõÙ ¿ ³í»ÉÇ ß³ï, ù³Ý Ýٳݳ-
Ïáë³¹ñáõÛùÝ»ñÇ Ù³ëáí ßáõϳÛÇ Ù³ëݳÏÇóÝ»ñÇ ëå³-
ïÇå, μ³Ûó ó³Íñ áõéáõóÇÏáõÃÛáõÝ áõÝ»óáÕ å³ñï³ïáÙë»-
ëáõÙÝ»ñ,
ñÇ å³ñ³·³ÛáõÙ: ²Ûë ѳݷ³Ù³ÝùÁ μ³ñÓñ áõéáõóÇÏáõ-
Ðî¸ 336
(5):
ú·ï³·áñÍí³Í ·ñ³Ï³ÝáõÃÛáõÝ
1. Overview of Forward Rate Analysis, Understanding the Yield Curve:
Part 1, Solomon Brothers.
2. Convexity Bias and The Yield Curve, Understanding the Yield Curve:
Part 5, Solomon Brothers.
3. A Framework for Understanding Yield Curve Trades, Understanding the
Yield Curve: Part 6, Solomon Brothers.
4. ÐÐ å»ï³Ï³Ý å³ñï³ïáÙë»ñÇ »Ï³Ùï³μ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý
Ïáñ»ñÇ Ï³éáõóÙ³Ý Ï³ñ· https://www.cba.am/Storage/AM/downloads/
karger/Yield%20Curve.pdf
5. Bernd Sherer, Portfolio Construction and Risk Budgeting, Risk Books, 2002.
6. Brian Kettel, Economics for financial markets, 2002.
7. Yield Curve Construction, Trading Strategies and Risk Analysis,
CFA Institute, March 2011.