CentrePiece Summer 2020

What has happened to the prevalence and nature of

domestic abuse during lockdown? Crime economists
Ria Ivandic and Tom Kirchmaier collaborated with
the Strategic Insights Unit of the Metropolitan Police
to answer this question by analysing data on calls to
the police and recorded crime in London.

Domestic abuse in
times of quarantine

6
 CentrePiece Summer 2020

H
ome is not a safe place for Figure 1:
everyone. As social distancing Weekly calls for domestic incidents/crimes
has become the dominant
policy response to suppress 2019 vs 2020
Covid-19, there have been unintended 4,000 ■ 2019/2020
consequences for domestic abuse victims. ■ 2020
■ 2019
We find that although the total number of
domestic abuse crimes did not rise, crimes 3,500
between current partners did – but this
increase is not visible in the total due to a

Weekly calls
3,000
corresponding decrease in crimes between

Lockdown 23 March 2020

ex-partners.
2,500
Datasets
We base our analysis on five years of crime
records and two years of calls-for-service 2,000

data from London’s Metropolitan Police

Service (MPS). These individual-level data
1,500
allow us to provide a reliable empirical 06/01 20/01 03/02 17/02 02/03 16/03 30/03 13/04 27/04 11/05 25/05 08/06
assessment of the changes in volumes of to to to to to to to to to to to to
domestic abuse during lockdown. Both 12/01 26/01 09/02 23/03 08/03 22/03 05/04 19/04 03/05 17/05 31/05 14/06

data sets ran to 14 June 2020.

Each year, the MPS receives about Note: The vertical red line signifies the start of lockdown. The official lockdown started on
2.5 million calls for service, out of which 23 March, but a significant number of workers were advised to work from home in the previous
170,000 (~7%) are related to domestic week, as concern about the scale of the pandemic and its economic implications spread.
abuse. In the 11 weeks from the beginning
of lockdown, there were a total of around
45,000 calls to the MPS contact centres
related to domestic abuse.
The nature of domestic abuse has
Out of these calls in 2019, there were changed, with ex-partner abuse down
about 900,000 crimes, with 9.7% of them
being related to domestic abuse. Since
but current partner abuse up
lockdown started, there were 19,155
domestic abuse offences recorded.
Figure 2:
Calls-for-service findings Weekly calls for domestic incidents/crimes
Since lockdown, domestic abuse calls to
the police have increased by 11.4% on By caller type
average compared with the same weeks in
2,200 ■ Victim 2019
23 March 2020

2019 (see Figure 1). The increase is almost ■ Victim 2000

exclusively due to an increase in calls from ■ Third party 2019
■ Third party 2020
third parties who are not directly witnessing
the incident, and which include neighbours 1,800

or family members (see Figure 2).

Weekly calls

As a counterfactual for what trends in

2020 would have been without lockdown, 1,400
we compare the calls in 2020 with those in
the same week of 2019 (baseline). Figure
1 depicts the divergence in the trend
1,000
Lockdown

between the two years, which starts about

two weeks before the official lockdown,
and then remains substantially higher. The
600
difference equates to about 380 more
06/01 20/01 03/02 17/02 02/03 16/03 30/03 13/04 27/04 11/05 25/05 08/06
calls per week on average as a result of to to to to to to to to to to to to
lockdown, and more than 4,592 in total. 12/01 26/01 09/02 23/03 08/03 22/03 05/04 19/04 03/05 17/05 31/05 14/06
We disaggregate the data in Figure
2 to see the differential effects by types Note: The vertical red line signifies the start of lockdown. The official lockdown started on
of caller. We observe that since the week 23 March, but a significant number of workers were advised to work from home in the previous
of 16 March, almost all of the increase in week, as concern about the scale of the pandemic and its economic implications spread.

7
CentrePiece Summer 2020

domestic abuse calls comes from third media campaign to promote the Silent We examine whether the nature of
party calls. Solution, which allows victims to contact the domestic abuse has changed. We estimate
This increase in calls from third parties police with minimal verbal communication. this using an event study methodology
might point to an increased awareness of using five years of weekly time series data.
noise as neighbours are now at home; an Crime findings While the overall level of domestic crimes
increased awareness of domestic abuse While the overall level of domestic abuse is roughly stable at 1,500 per week for the
since public narratives in the media voiced crimes (not calls) have remained stable Greater London area, this average masks
concern for victims during lockdown; when compared with the long-term important diverging trends between current
potential under-reporting by domestic abuse trend, we observe a considerable shift in the partner and ex-partner crimes, and intra-
victims; or a combination. type of abuse. While abuse by ex-partners family abuse.
In an effort to alleviate the issue of fell by 9.4%, abuse by current partners As discussed, current partner crimes
domestic abuse victims not being able to and family members increased significantly during lockdown increased by 8.5% on
contact the police, the Strategic Insights – by 8.5% and 16.4% – respectively since average, with considerable variation over
Unit (SIU) and LSE launched a targeted social lockdown began. the weeks (see Figure 3a). For example, in
the worst week, crime was up by 18.9%
compared with the baseline. Similarly,
Figure 3A:
family domestic abuse was up by 16.4%
Weekly trends in domestic abuse among current partners
on average, to about 380 cases per week
Among current partners during lockdown. Over the same period,
20%
ex-partner crimes decreased by 9.4%
23 March 2020

compared with baseline (see Figure 3b).

This is an important finding, as it
shows that there are groups of victims that
are suffering considerably more during
Percentage change

10%
lockdown, groups that should be targeted
by focused policies. It also highlights the
opportunity to maintain the reductions in
ex-partner abuse after lockdown ends.
0%
Policy implications
Lockdown

The social media campaign launched by

LSE and the MPS to promote alternative
-10%
means of reporting is showing positive
3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 engagement in terms of clicks. We propose
Weeks before Weeks after continuing this research to investigate how
best to communicate with victims.
Note: The official lockdown started on 23 March.
The observed shift in the type of abuse
to current and intra-family abuse invites
Figure 3B:
rethinking how best to identify and target
Weekly trends in domestic abuse among ex-partners
households where domestic abuse might
Among ex-partners occur for the first time.
Finally, given that we have identified
5%
a reduction in some aspects of domestic
abuse, there is an opportunity to consider
0 how that reduction might be maintained.
Percentage change

-5%
Lockdown 23 March

-10%

Ria Ivandic is a postdoctoral research

-15% economist in CEP’s community programme
and part of the policing and crime research
group. Tom Kirchmaier is director of
-20%
0 CEP’s policing and crime research group.
3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Weeks before Weeks after The Strategic Insight Unit is led by
Simon Ruda. Inspector Ben Linton led this
Note: The official lockdown started on 23 March.
work for the SIU.