SAN

FRANCISCO
CRIME
ANALYSIS
GROUP J - TEAM 4
FSDA-MADRID-JAN2022
 OUR TEAM

HANG KESTURI YOGA WIDI

SAID PAMUNGKAS ADRIAN YOSAFAT SITI NURJANAH
Project Lead Data Cleaning & Analysis Data Visualization Data Cleaning & Analysis
 BACKGROUND & PROJECT GOALS
● San Francisco is one of the 4th largest city in the state of
California, USA with 884K population in 20211.
● San Francisco has a high crime rate in California with an annual
average of 132.5K, which means that every 4 minutes a crime
happened in SF.
● The number of police officers available in San Francisco in 2021 is
2044 officer, which means 1 officer for every 432 people2.
● According to SFPD3 data, they are having struggles with
recruitment.
● To maximize the number of available officer resources, a good
allocation is needed based on specific cases.

1
https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/san-francisco-ca-population
2
https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/your-sfpd/published-reports/demographics
3
SFPD (San Francisco Police Department)
 OBJECTIVE

Ultimately, our main goal is to reduce number of crime. But as the Data team, our
objective is to provide necessary recommendation to the primary decision maker
on how we can effectively allocate our resources depending on the situation,
based on our findings.
METHODOLOGY

1. Data 3. Problem 5. Data Analysis 7. Recommendation

Preparation Definition

4. Find 6. Data
2. Exploratory Additional Visualization
Data Analysis / Datasets
Visualization
DATA SOURCE & DATA OVERVIEW

The dataset covers the whole San

Francisco territory, with around 550K+
data points.

This dataset includes incident reports

that have been filed as of January 1, 2018
to Present (In our case, March 20 2022).

These reports are filed by officers or

self-reported by members of the public
using SFPD’s online reporting system.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

● We found that there is a shift in the crime trend after the COVID-19 lockdown.

● There is a strong correlation between the average monthly rent payment and the
number of crime in that district.

● There are recurring crime spikes during New Year’s Eve Celebration.

● Some of the Top Tourist Attractions are in close proximity with the crime hotspots.
 “Semangat.”

—Sun Tzu Probably

GENERAL
OVERVIEW
The North-Eastern part of the city is the most
dangerous.
Crime per Police District

64%
of all crimes are located in the
North-Eastern part of the city.
FRIDAY THE 12TH

● Peak criminal hour in San Francisco is at

12 PM in the afternoon, especially on a
Friday.

● Weekend evenings has generally higher

crime than weekday evenings.
LARCENY IS THE MOST POPULAR CRIME

Top 6 crime category

LARCENY
30.93%

THE REST
69,07%
COVID-19
VS CRIME
Even Criminals Afraid of Covid-19…
Crime per Month Jan 2019- Mar 2022

Delta Omicron
1st Case Variant Variant
There’s a drop in
crime incident after
every new Covid
variant hit San
Francisco.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/san-francisco-california-covid-cases.html
How Covid-19 Affects Crime Trends in SF?
Crime per Month Jan 2019- Mar 2022

Larceny crime
dropped while
Larceny 17 Mar 2020 25 Dec 2020 Burglary crime
1st Lockdown 2nd Lockdown
increased after
lockdown in
March 2020 and
December 2020.

Burglary
The crime trend
bounced back
after lockdown
lifted.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/san-francisco-california-covid-cases.html
CORRELATION
ANALYSIS
Top 3 Cheapest Average Monthly Rent Are
Located In The North-Eastern Districts
Average monthly rent price (in US$)

Coincidence? I think not!

Source: https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/ca/san-francisco/
There is a strong negative correlation between the average
monthly rent price and the number of incidents in that
district.

By understanding this, we could

take it into consideration when
making decisions towards police
allocation in that district.
 NEW
YEAR’S EVE
CRIMES
We found that there are recurring crime spikes during
New Year’s Eve Celebration.

Exactly on every January 1st, 12 AM, the

average number of crime during that single
hour is 68.75 incidents.

To put that into perspective, the hourly

incident average is only around 15
incidents. That is a massive 358.3%
increase in the number of incidents.
Tenderloin & Central Districts has the highest crime
occurrence during New Year’s Eve Celebration.
San Francisco Crime Density Map 3 hours before and after New Year’s Eve.
Larceny is still the most popular crime category,
but two other crime stands out.

Number of Assaults and Lost

Properties skyrocketed
during this 6 hour timespan.

#of incidents 3 hours before and after

New Year’s Eve, aggregated 2019-2022.
“The combination of crowds, heat, and alcohol is toxic.
When you’re mingling in environments like pubs, bars
and streets that are overcrowded, then there’s much
more room for conflict to erupt in violence.”

— Don Weatherburn
Director of Crime Statistics and Research Bureau Sydney
Top Bars & Nightclubs are located in close
proximity to the crime hotspots.
Bars & Nightclubs location vs New Year’s Eve crime density
(3 hours before and after New Year’s Eve, aggregated 2019-2022).

After further research, one of the most

popular thing to do during New Year’s Eve
in San Francisco is to just go out to drink
and party!

The combination of crowds, heat, alcohol

and possibly drugs MIGHT be an answer as
to why the number is so high during that 6
hour timespan.
TOURISM
VS CRIME
TOP Tourist Attractions in 2022
Total Visitor 2018 - 2022 Rating of Various Tourist Attractions 2018 - 2022

Source:
https://www.google.co.id/maps/place/Twin+Peaks/@37.7529191,-122.4496018,17z/data=!4m7!3m6!1s0x808f7de2acf071b7:0xb2cfa1c901ae6e6d!8m2!3d37.7529149!4d-122.4474131!9m1!1b1?hl=id
https://www.tripadvisor.com/Attractions-g60713-Activities-a_allAttractions.true-San_Francisco_California.html
Be mindful when visiting these SF top tourist attractions!
A number of top tourist attractions are located close to
crime hotspots.
Top tourist attractions vs tourist-related crime density (2018-2022). Number of crimes in top San Francisco tourist attractions.

Pier 39 has the most number of incidents,

followed by Mission Dolores Park and
Exploratorium.

Most of them are located in Central District,

which ranked 1st in number of incidents.

*tourist-related crimes : pickpocket, trick, theft, lost property, civil sidewalks ordinance.
There is a strong correlation between the total visitor and
the number of crimes in that tourist attraction (r = 0.52).

By understanding this,
r = 0,52 we could say that total
amount of visitors DOES
affects number of crimes
RECOMMENDATION
POLICE PATROL OFFICER ALLOCATION
Number of Incidents Number of Police Officers

Police officer allocation is

not in proportion with
number of incidents.

Source: https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/study-finds-sfpd-patrol-staffing-severely-inadequate/
We created a simple linear regression model to predict the
optimal number of police officers in a district.
No. of Police officers vs No. of incidents (2018-2022) in different Police Districts.

Based on this model, we would propose

this allocation :
We can fine-tune the model to optimize police allocation
depending on the situation.
Number of Police officers vs Number of incidents (3 hours before and after
New Year’s Eve) in different Police Districts.

For example, based on historical New Year’s Eve data,

we could re-allocate our officers to certain districts in
order to mitigate the crime spikes during New Year’s
Eve Celebration :
 INTERESTING CRIME FACTS

Every
4
A crime happens in SF
Mins 79.1%
Remain unsolved…
Crimes

30 June 2019
54,5% of
The Most Dangerous
day from 2018-2022
drug-related crimes are The San Francisco
located in Tenderloin PRIDE Parade1

1
https://sfist.com/2019/06/30/dyke-march-draws-thousands-in-san-francisco/
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YOU!