ANSWERS TO 120MSE MAY 2013

Note: these are not model answers but merely outline solutions for marking purposes.
1 a) 60

Estimated Time (mins) 55

50

45

40

35

30
Tricky Tough
6
b) On average Tricky puzzles take 13.7 minutes longer than Tough ones.
The range of times is slightly higher for Tough puzzles than for Tricky.
Both the IQR and SD show that Tough times are more variable than Tricky.
There were no outliers among the estimated times using IQR method.
(60 for Tricky is just an outlier using the SD method.)
The distribution of Tricky times was positively skewed, whereas for Tough it was
negatively skewed, as indicated by the positions of mean and median.
25% of Tricky times were 50 minutes or less. 6
2 a) =3 P(2)=0.2240 3
b) =1.5 P(≥2)=1 – [P(0) + P(1)] = 1 – 0.2231 – 0.3347 = 0.4422 4
c) 1, because P(2)=1.5 P(1) / 2 < P(1) 2
d) P(0) = exp(-6t) = 0.95 => t = -LN(0.95)/6 = 0.00855 hrs = 0.51 minutes 3
3 a) P(X<30) = P(Z<(30-48)/12) = P(Z<-1.5) = 0.0668 2
b) P(X>45) = P(Z>(45-48)/12) = P(Z>-0.25) = 0.5987
P(30<X<45) = 1 – 0.0668 – 0.5987 = 0.3345 3
c) z=-0.67 Q1 = 48 – 0.67 x 12 = 39.96 3
d) E(T) = 48x3 = 144 V(T) = 3x122 = 432 sd(T) = 20.785
P(T<120) = P(Z < (120-144)/20.785) = P(Z<-1.15) = 0.1251 4
4 a) f=108/144=0.75 99% => z=2.576 SE=sqrt(0.75x0.25/144) = 0.036
0.75 +/- 2.576 x 0.036 0.75 +/- 0.0927 (0.66 to 0.84) 5
b) 0.8 lies in the interval so no reason to doubt the lecturer’s claim 2
c) 95% confidence => z=1.96
1.96 x sqrt(0.8x0.2/n) = 0.01
sqrt(n) = 1.96 x 0.4/0.01 = 78.4 n=6146.56 => 6147 5
5 a) 108 x 94/144 = 70.5 2
b) H0: beating estimated time is independent of category
E 15.0 22.5 70.5
5.0 7.5 23.5
0.6 chi
0.9 0.8
1.8 2.7 2.4
chi-squared=9.19 df=2 5% critical value = 5.99 9
Reject H0. Beating estimated time is more likely for Deadly.
c) If they had not been combined the expected frequency would have been less than 5
1
and the chi-squared test would have been invalid.
6 a) For every extra minute estimated, the actual time to complete is 0.73 minutes longer
on average. 2
b) df=142 t(0.025)=1.98 SE=0.07804
95% CI is 0.73 +/- 1.98 x 0.078 or 0.73 +/- 0.15 or 0.58 to 0.88 4
c) r = sqrt(0.382) = 0.618 strong positive linear relationship 3
d) A random scatter would confirm that a linear model was appropriate.
Here there is a clear “fan” shape to the plot, which suggests increasing variance which
contradicts one of the assumptions of the linear model. 3
e) 12.43 = -9.49+0.731x => x = 30 minutes 2
f) CI gives an interval estimate for the mean time taken.
PI gives an interval estimate for the time taken for a single puzzle. 2
g) t=1.98 estimate=12.43 SE2 = S2 + 3.372 = so SE=21.88
95% PI is 12.43 +/- 1.98 x 21.88 12.43 +/- 43.33 -30.9 to 55.8 4
7 a) variance = 6.25 df= 9 9x6.25/2 is chi-squared
2.5% value is 2.70 97.5% value is 19.023
2.70 < 56.25//2 < 19.023 2.96 < 2 <20.833 1.72 <  < 4.56 4
b) H0: variances same H1: variances different
F=(3.2/2.5)2 = 1.64 F(9,9,2.5%)=4.10
Cannot reject H0. Variances may be assumed equal. 6
c) H0: mean(tricky)=mean(moderate) H1: mean(tricky)>mean(moderate)
Pooled sd = sqrt( (9x2.52 + 9x3.22)/18) = 2.87
t=(14.4-8.7)/(2.87sqrt(2/10)) = 4.44
critical t(df=18,5%)=1.734
Reject H0. Sufficient evidence to conclude that mean time for for Tricky is
significantly higher than mean for Moderate. 10